INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPING ECONOMIES IDE Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussions and critical comments

IDE DISCUSSION PAPER No. 250

Are Trading Partners Complementary in International Trade? Kazunobu HAYAKAWA*, Kiyoyasu TANAKA Yasushi UEKI

August 2010 Abstract We use a unique dataset on trading transactions at the firm level to investigate a complementary effect in international transactions between sellers and buyers; trading transactions are more likely to be international when both sellers and buyers are large in size than when either sellers or buyers are large. Our econometric analysis provides evidence for the complementary effect between trading partners on the likelihood of international trade, which is most prominent for exports from North to South.

Keywords: Self-selection; Firm heterogeneity; Matching JEL classification: D24; F10

* Corresponding author: Kazunobu Hayakawa. Address: Economic Integration Studies Group, Inter-Disciplinary Studies Center, Institute of Developing Economies, 3-2-2 Wakaba, Mihama-ku, Chiba-shi, Chiba 261-8545 Japan. Phone: 81-43-299-9754; Fax: 81-43-299-9763. E-mail: [email protected].

The Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) is a semigovernmental, nonpartisan, nonprofit research institute, founded in 1958. The Institute merged with the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) on July 1, 1998. The Institute conducts basic and comprehensive studies on economic and related affairs in all developing countries and regions, including Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, Oceania, and Eastern Europe.

The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s).

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INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPING ECONOMIES (IDE), JETRO 3-2-2, WAKABA, MIHAMA-KU, CHIBA-SHI CHIBA 261-8545, JAPAN

©2010 by Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO No part of this publication may be reproduced without the prior permission of the IDE-JETRO.

Are Trading Partners Complementary in International Trade?

Kazunobu HAYAKAWA

†§

Inter-Disciplinary Studies Center, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan

Kiyoyasu TANAKA Inter-Disciplinary Studies Center, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan

Yasushi UEKI Bangkok Research Center, Japan External Trade Organization, Thailand

Abstract: We use a unique dataset on trading transactions at the firm level to investigate a complementary effect in international transactions between sellers and buyers; trading transactions are more likely to be international when both sellers and buyers are large in size than when either sellers or buyers are large. Our econometric analysis provides evidence for the complementary effect between trading partners on the likelihood of international trade, which is most prominent for exports from North to South. Keywords: Self-selection; Firm heterogeneity; Matching JEL Classification: D24; F10

†

Corresponding author: Kazunobu Hayakawa; address: Economic Integration Studies Group, Inter-Disciplinary Studies Center, Institute of Developing Economies, 3-2-2 Wakaba, Mihama-ku, Chiba-shi, Chiba 261-8545, Japan; e-mail: [email protected] § The micro data used in this study were collected in a project of the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) “Development of Regional Production and Logistic Networks in East Asia” in FY2008 and FY2009. We thank Fumihiro Okubo for his invaluable suggestions. The first author acknowledge the financial support by JSPS Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B). 1

1. Introduction Since the latter half of the 1990s, self-selection mechanics in firms’ trading have received enthusiastic attention in the field of international economics. Melitz (2003) is the theoretical pioneering study on the selection mechanism in firms’ exporting. It theoretically demonstrates that exporting firms have relatively high productivity. Since firms with high productivity can obtain high operating profit, they still obtain non-negative gross profit even if they incur sunk costs for exports. This theoretical prediction on self-selection mechanics in exporting has received support from numerous empirical studies, including Bernard and Jensen (1999), Lopez (2005), Greenaway and Kneller (2007), and Wagner (2007). In recent years, moreover, the empirical literature has been extended to investigate the self-selection mechanics of firms to engage in (1) importing and (2) both exporting and importing (Muuls and Pisu, 2009; Castellani et al., 2010; Vogel and Wagner, 2010). The findings are that (1) importers are more productive than non-importers, and (2) firms that engage in both importing and exporting exhibit higher performance than those that engage in either exporting or importing. In this paper, we exploit a unique dataset on firms’ transactions to investigate a complementary effect in international transactions between sellers and buyers; transactions are more likely to be international when both their sellers and buyers are large in firm size than when either their sellers or buyers are large. All of the previous papers have used firm-level data, which are suitable for examining the complementary effect between exporting and importing activities for each firm. In contrast, our data on seller’s and buyer’s characteristics at the transaction level allow us to analyze the complementary effect in firm size between trading partners for each international transaction. Focusing on matching of trading partners in accounting for a pattern of international trade, we shed new light on the role of firm characteristics in international trade. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. The next section explains our unique dataset and reports our empirical results. Based on those results, we discuss some future avenues in Section 3.

2. Empirical Analysis Our data source is the Establishment Survey on Innovation and Production Network for selected manufacturing firms in four countries in Southeast Asia for 2008 and 2009: Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. The sample population is 2

restricted to selected manufacturing hubs in each country. 1 This dataset includes the basic information on three economic agents: a firm, its main supplier, and its customer. This feature of the data allows us to exploit two transactions with seller and customer per reporting firm. To analyze firm-level characteristics, we use employment information to identify relatively large firms with a cutoff of 200 employees. Furthermore, the location of trading firms, sellers, and customers is used to classify each transaction for domestic or international trading. Table 1 reports the number of observations by transaction type and firm size. There are 2,372 observations in our sample; 36% of the sample falls into an international transaction. 2 It is evident that international transactions are most likely to be conducted between large sellers and buyers, followed by pairs of large sellers and small buyers. These patterns could suggest the important role of sellers in accounting for the occurrence of international transactions. In order to investigate the hypothesis that the size of sellers and buyers affects the likelihood of international trade, conditional on some characteristics of transactions, we specify the probability that firms engage in international trade for transaction flow f, industry i, and time t: Prob 1 Φ θ θ , where Φ(•) is a cumulative standard normal distribution. The seller (buyer) variable takes on unity if the seller (buyer) in a transaction has over 200 employees, and zero otherwise. X is a vector of control variables on transaction-level characteristics. In particular, we include the dummy variable for standard products, which takes on unity if products are classified as standard type (not customized for each customer), and zero otherwise. In addition, we control for an intra-firm transaction; the dummy variable is one if a transaction flow is conducted within related business enterprises, and zero otherwise. Finally, we take into account fixed effects at the industry and year level; the sample contains eight manufacturing industries and years 2008 and 2009. The probit estimation results of the above equation are reported in Table 2. Column (I) shows that the estimated coefficients for Seller and Buyer are significantly positive. This implies that international trade is more likely to arise when either sellers or buyers are large. The magnitude of the coefficient is larger for the seller variable; the 1

JABODETABEK area (i.e., Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, and Bekasi) for Indonesia; CALABARZON area (i.e., Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon) for the Philippines; Greater Bangkok area for Thailand; and Hanoi area and Ho Chi Minh City for Vietnam 2 In the observations related to international trade, 12% is exports from North to South, 13% is from South to North, and 75% is between Southern countries. North and South mean OECD and non-OECD countries, respectively. Our dataset does not include the data on international transactions between Northern countries. 3

size of sellers plays a larger role than that of buyers in explaining the occurrence of international transactions. The dummy variable for standard products is significantly negative, indicating that customized products are more likely to be traded across borders. In other words, standard products are more likely to be traded within countries. Finally, the coefficient for the intrafirm variable is not significant. Based on these results, the bottom rows in Table 2 present the predicted probabilities of international transactions for a pair of large/small buyers and sellers, evaluated at the means of other explanatory variables. The results show that the pair of large seller and small buyer (42%) is more likely to engage in international trade than that of small seller and large buyer (35%). The probability of cross-border trade is 52% when both sellers and buyers are large in the number of their employees. Thus, trading partners play a complementary role in accounting for the likelihood of international trade. From columns (II) to (IV) in Table 2, we present the probit results of different pairs of Northern and Southern countries to examine whether the locations of trading partners influence the likelihood of international transactions. We find that the exporter size is relatively important in trade between Southern countries and exports from South to North. However, there is little difference between exporter and importer contributions for exports from North to South. This suggests that the size of exporters is critical to the likelihood of international trade from South, but the destination of exports plays little role. Additionally, the complementary effects between trading partners appear to be prominent for exports from North to South. These results on complementary effects can be interpreted from a matching point of view in international transactions. To start international trade, firms must find trading partners in an international market. Large firms prefer trading with large foreign partners because small partners may not be able to make a sufficiently large investment to start costly international transactions. Without substantial investment for trading, the delivery and receipt of goods are likely to be delayed. Late delivery not only yields inventory costs in more downstream products but also may lead to a loss of their sales opportunity. In order to minimize these economic losses, large firms are more likely to trade with large partners that can incur substantial costs for trading. Furthermore, the prominent complementary effect in exports from North to South suggests that potential losses are likely to be substantial in trade with Southern firms, which motivates Northern firms to avoid these losses.

4

3. Concluding Remarks This paper employs transaction-level data with seller and buyer characteristics to illustrate a complementary linkage between trading partners in international transactions. While our study sheds light on trading partners in international trade, there are several issues left for future work. The empirical method needs to take into account the effect of learning from trading to identify the direction of causation between firm characteristics and their global activities (Greenaway and Kneller, 2007). As our estimates in part contain learning effects, we need to distinguish them from the selection effects, possibly by employing panel data. Additionally, our results suggest the need for incorporating a matching process between seller and buyer in international trade. The introduction of matching poses a challenge for theoretical modeling, but is a fruitful direction in research.

5

Table 1. Number of Firms by Transaction Type and Size Firm Size Seller Buyer Large Large Large Small Small Large Small Small Total

(a) International Transactions 268 146 138 299 851

(b) Domestic Transactions 218 191 245 867 1,521

a/((a+b)

a+b

0.55 0.43 0.36 0.26 0.36

486 337 383 1,166 2,372

Table 2. Probit Estimation Results: Marginal Effects

Coefficient Seller Buyer Standard Intrafirm

(I) ALL

(II) S => S

(III) N => S

(IV) S => N

0.161*** [0.023] 0.094*** [0.022] -0.038* [0.020] -0.033 [0.024]

0.068*** [0.019] 0.019 [0.016] -0.039*** [0.013] -0.031* [0.015]

0.064*** [0.020] 0.084*** [0.019] -0.013 [0.016] -0.005 [0.018]

0.142*** [0.021] 0.031* [0.019] 0.022 [0.016] 0.004 [0.019]

YES YES

YES YES

YES YES

0.0543 1,685 -509

0.093 1,787 -682

0.1126 1,799 -687

6% 13% 8% 16%

9% 14% 16% 25%

9% 22% 11% 27%

Dummy Industry YES Year YES Statistics Pseudo R2 0.0723 Number of obs 2,372 Log pseudolikelihood -1436 Probabilities of trading at mean Seller Buyer Small Small 26% Large Small 42% Small Large 35% Large Large 52%

Notes: Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors (White) are in parentheses. ***, **, and * show 1%, 5%, and 10% significance, respectively. “N” and “S” indicate North and South, respectively.

6

References Bernard, A. and Jensen, B., 1999, Exceptional Exporter Performance: Cause, Effect, or Both?, Journal of International Economics, 47(1): 1-25. Castellani, D., Serti, F., and Tomasi, C., 2010, Firms in International Trade: Importers and Exporters Heterogeneity in the Italian Manufacturing Industry, The World Economy, 33(3): 424-457. Greenaway, D. and Kneller, R., 2007, Firm Heterogeneity, Exporting and Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Journal, 117(517): 134-161. Lopez, Ricardo A., 2005, Trade and Growth: Reconciling the Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Evidence, Journal of Economic Surveys, 19(4): 623-648. Melitz, M., 2003, The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity, Econometrica, 71(6): 1695-1725. Muuls, M. and Pisu, M., 2009, Imports and Exports at the Level of the Firm: Evidence from Belgium, The World Economy, 32(5): 692-734. Vogel, A. and Wagner, J., 2010, Higher Productivity in Importing German Manufacturing Firms: Self-selection, Learning from Importing, or Both?, Review of World Economics, 145(4): 641-665. Wagner, J., 2007, Exports and Productivity: A Survey of the Evidence from Firm-level Data, The World Economy, 30(1): 60-82.

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