Architecture Economic Outlook: Tampa Bay 2015

Architecture Economic Outlook: Tampa Bay 2015 The Russian American  Medical Center By Gresham Smith and  Partners Advocating the Voice of Architectur...
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Architecture Economic Outlook: Tampa Bay 2015 The Russian American  Medical Center By Gresham Smith and  Partners

Advocating the Voice of Architecture and Its Value to the Business Community

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1 Architecture Economic Outlook: Tampa Bay 2015 is an economic indicator of development-related growth for Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties. Real estate development is a cycle, and one of the early steps in the process involves architects. How busy architects are designing new projects reflects the amount of developmentrelated growth, like new construction, that will follow in six to 12 months.

Architecture Economic Outlook: Tampa Bay 2015

In other words, Tampa Bay architects are the “canaries in the coal mines” for the region’s development-related growth. The value of architects’ opinions and workload in predicting future construction activity is supported by The American Institute of Architects National Architecture Billing Index (ABI). Developed by the American Institute of Architects national center, the ABI is a leading U.S. economic indicator of construction activity that provides an approximately nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. This study represents a survey of Tampa Bay architects (AIA Tampa Bay members) in December 2014, and the regional (Southern U.S.) ABI released December 2014.

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2 Rate the Development-Related Economy

Architecture Economic Outlook: Tampa Bay 2015

The majority (86%) of Tampa Bay architects said the region’s development economy was “fair to good” in 2014, while a similar majority (82%) estimated it will be “good to excellent” in 2015. “The data shows Tampa Bay’s construction industry in 2015 should be the best year in quite a while,” said Carlos Molnar, president of the board of directors of AIA Tampa Bay.

Most Architect Principals and Managers Anticipate Increasse in Gross Revenues for 2015 More than three-quarters of architect principals and managers – 77 percent – anticipate their organization’s gross revenues to increase in 2015, while 22 percent believe revenues will stay the same and only one percent estimate a decline. Of those anticipating an increase, some see large growth - 17 percent expect a whopping 20 percent or more increase; while 21 percent expect a 10 to 14 percent increase. “Tampa Bay architects are busy and anticipate being even busier in 2015, which means there is a major amount of construction activity to follow,” said Dewey Caruthers, president of dewey & associates and author of the study. This is supported by the regional ABI released in December 2014, which showed growth in the South with a 57.9, with other regions of the U.S. having lower ABI’s -- West is 52.7, Midwest is 49.8, and Northeast is 46.7 (scores in the index above 50 indicate an aggregate increase in architecture billings).

3 Architect Principals and Managers Anticipate New Hires in 2015 The majority (59%) of architect principals and managers anticipate adding new architecture-related staff in 2015, with a nearly three-fourths (71%) planning on hiring one to three. “Each new architecture-related hire is followed by new construction activity,” said Molnar.

Market Segments to Have Most Development-Related Activity Military, historic preservation, industrial and transportation are market segments architects expect to have the most development-related activity.

Architecture Economic Outlook: Tampa Bay 2015

4 Architecture Economic Outlook: Tampa Bay 2015

Clear Vision and Leadership of Smart Growth in Tampa Bay Architects were queried on the topic of the region’s smart growth and its leadership. “While this study reflects good news in terms of the development industry rebounding, it is concerning that there was no clear answer on who the architecture community thinks should lead the drive for smart growth,” Caruthers said.

Is There a Clear Vision for Entire Region to Grow? The majority (61%) do not believe there is a clear vision for the entire Tampa Bay region to grow – with 17% disagreeing and 22% saying “I don’t know.”

Can Political Leadership Effectively Lead Smart Growth? A larger portion (42%) do not believe Tampa Bay’s political leadership is capable of leading smart growth, with a similar but smaller portion (31%) having confidence in political leadership.

Who Should Take the Lead on Smart Growth? Most survey respondents (44%) think a collaboration of area economic development groups should take the lead, with a similar portion (34%) believing in the leadership of the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council. Much fewer thought the Tampa Bay Partnership (15%) or a collaboration of area chambers of commerce (6%) should take the lead.

5 Designing Buildings that are More Basic with Fewer Amenities More architects were unsure (39%) or disagreed (32%) than those who agree (29%) architects are designing building that are more basic with fewer expensive amenities. “A third of architects seem to think Tampa Bay may see new construction of more elaborate buildings in 2015,” said Molnar.

Architecture Economic Outlook: Tampa Bay 2015

Top Development-related issues for Tampa Bay Three-fourths of architects cited transportation as the top developmentrelated issue for Tampa Bay, with many also specifying light rail. “Architects should have a seat at the table as Hillsborough County ramps up for its new transportation effort and Pinellas takes a deep breath to reconsider its plans,” Caruthers said.

Transportation  Top issue identified for Tampa Bay’s  development related economy. Study Methodology A survey of architects was conducted in December 2014 of 100 architects who are members of the American Institute of Architects, Tampa Bay region. The group’s members span seven counties (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Polk, Pasco, Sumter, Citrus and Hernando) – 66 percent of survey respondents work in Hillsborough and 30 percent in Pinellas. The southern U.S. ABI comes from The American Institute of Architects National Billing Index.

6 About The Bank of Tampa

Architecture Economic Outlook: Tampa Bay 2015

For 30 years, The Bank of Tampa has focused on serving Tampa Bay professionals and business owners, giving us insight into our community that other banks simply cannot match. As one of the largest locally-owned banks in Tampa Bay, we provide a full range of financial services while building strong, personal relationships with each of our clients. The bank is privately owned by staff, directors and clients, and has 10 offices with assets of $1.2 billion.

About AIA Tampa Bay The American Institute of Architects (AIA) is the professional association for architects and those in the architecture field. AIA Tampa Bay is the regional chapter representing approximately 650 members in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Polk, Hernando, Citrus, Sumter and Pasco Counties. The AIA provides programs and services including educational programs, design competitions, community service programs and serves as the united voice of the architecture profession. The regional chapter office is located in downtown Tampa. For more information visit www.aiatampabay.com

About dewey & associates Founded in 2000, dewey & associates (d&a) is a national management and strategy consulting practice based in Tampa Bay, Florida. The firm does strategic planning, and also conducts various studies on emerging issues and trends. d&a has partnered with AIA Tampa Bay to conduct numerous surveys of architects over the past decade. For information on recent d&a studies, visit www.deweyandassociates.com