APPLE & PEAR VARIETY PRODUCTION AND PLANTING TRENDS IN WASHINGTON STATE

APPLE & PEAR VARIETY PRODUCTION AND PLANTING TRENDS IN WASHINGTON STATE 2004 By Lindsay Buckner Senior Vice President-Field Services Tree Top, In...
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APPLE & PEAR VARIETY

PRODUCTION AND PLANTING

TRENDS

IN WASHINGTON STATE

2004

By Lindsay Buckner Senior Vice President-Field Services Tree Top, Inc.

APPLE & PEAR VARIETY PRODUCTION AND PLANTING TRENDS IN WASHINGTON STATE 2004 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Apple Production Trends…………………………………………... Illustration #1 Washington Apple Production by Variety……….. Illustration #2 Washington Apple Production by Variety……….. Illustration #3 Washington Apple Production - Other Varieties...

Apple Planting Trends………………………………………………. Illustration #4 Apple Variety Trends……………………………… Illustration #5 Apple Variety Trends - Other Varieties………….

Tree Density Trends………………………………………………… Illustration #6 Tree Density Trends – Apple…………………….

Pear Production Trends……………………………………………. Illustration #7 Winter Pear Production - By Variety…………….. Illustration #8 Winter Pear Production - By Variety……………. Illustration #9 Bartlett Pear Production - WA & OR……………..

Pear Planting Trends…………………………………………………

3 4 5 7

8 9 13

14 15

16 17 18 19

Illustration #10 Pear Variety Trends………………………………

20 22

Summary………………………………………………………..

23

2

APPLE & PEAR VARIETY PRODUCTION AND PLANTING TRENDS IN WASHINGTON STATE This report reviews production and planting trends for apples and pears in the state of Washington. Diversification in both industries is continuing as growers shift the varieties they are planting. These shifts are apparent in the planting trends observed in this year’s Nursery Tree Survey. It continues to be vitally important for growers to recognize and understand these trends when making decisions pertaining to their orchard operation and which varieties they may choose to plant.

APPLE PRODUCTION TRENDS The growth of fresh apple production in the state of Washington is depicted in Illustration #1. Total fresh apple production reached a new record high with the 2004 crop. This follows one of the shortest crops in recent years, a difference of nearly 22 million boxes. It is expected the “alternate bearing” cycle will continue in the years ahead. The changing varietal mix of the Washington apple crop is clearly seen on the bar chart on page 4. The most notable change is the steady decline of Red Delicious since 1994. However, the dramatic reduction in Red Delicious production has been offset by the continued increase in production of “newer” varieties. This trend will continue in the future based upon the existing varietal planting trends. The changing mix of apple varieties being produced in the state of Washington is quantified in Illustration #2. Although Red Delicious is still the dominant variety in the industry, the percentage of Red Delicious has steadily declined. In 1994,

3

Illustration 1 2004 Nursery Tree Survey WASHINGTON APPLE PRODUCTION BY VARIETY (Millions Boxes) Fresh Pack

110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 '75

Reds

'85

'87

'89

Goldens

'91

Fuji

'93

'95

Gala

'97

'99

'01

Grannies

'03

Est. '04

Other 4

Illustration 2

WASHINGTON APPLE PRODUCTION BY VARIETY (000’s Boxes) Fresh Pack

1975 1980 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Est. 2/1/05

Red

Golden

Delicious

Delicious

26,844 36,986 24,797 37,966 49,742 43,778 55,336 51,117 49,400 45,339 56,845 61,408 48,505 56,197 44,430 52,344 41,563 45,459 37,133 37,316 29,590

9,283 12,593 9,535 12,352 12,936 13,822 15,892 13,812 14,628 16,742 12,446 14,750 15,627 17,901 12,195 14,648 13,841 15,110 12,212 14,300 11,140

36,044

14,042

Granny Fuji

Gala

Smith

Other

TOTAL

32 146 805 1,654 3,435 3,419 7,002 7,331 10,331 8,091 12,914 10,458 9,791 10,187

677 688 1,403 2,184 2,936 3,017 4,118 4,388 6,369 6,324 9,929 9,821 11,654 11,322

255 1,296 2,910 3,790 4,308 4,852 5,559 4,005 7,187 7,323 6,273 5,431 5,691 7,398 8,030 6,718 8,222 9,459 9,509 10,055

2,731 2,257 1,084 1,729 1,596 1,727 2,366 2,352 2,334 2,677 2,636 2,879 3,057 3,839 4,330 4,950 4,656 6,709 5,732 6,191 7,637

38,858 52,091 36,712 54,957 68,064 63,635 78,446 73,549 71,201 74,153 83,088 91,681 79,056 94,748 80,072 96,672 81,193 98,343 84,815 88,761 79,931

13,465

15,354

13,192

9,795

101,892

5

Reds peaked at 61.4 million boxes or 67% of the total crop. In 2004, Red production is estimated at 36 million fresh boxes and represents only 35% of the total crop. This would be the lowest level of production for Reds since the mid-1980’s. Gala ranked second in total production in 2004, surpassing both Golden and Granny Smith production. The 15.4 million boxes of Gala produced in 2004 is the largest fresh volume for the variety in its history. Gala now represents 15% of the total fresh crop. Based upon current planting trends, growth in Gala production will continue in the years to come. Golden Delicious rank third in total production. Golden production peaked at 17.9 million boxes in 1996, which represented 19% of the total crop. In 2004, Golden production was 14 million boxes; 13.8% of the total estimated crop. Fuji now ranks fourth in total production, slightly more than Granny Smith. Fuji reached 13.5 million boxes in 2004, which is a record volume for the variety. Fuji accounts for 13.2% of the total fresh crop. Fuji production will continue to grow. Granny Smith ranks fifth in fresh volume for the state of Washington. Granny Smith production has steadily increased since the mid-1990’s. The 2004 volume of 13.2 million boxes is a record volume for this variety. Granny Smith now represents 12.9% of the total fresh crop. The “Other Varieties” category continues to show steady growth over the past few years. This category peaked at 9.8 million boxes in 2004, which represented 9.6% of the total crop. The increase is the result of the continued high-density plantings of these varieties throughout the state. A breakdown of these varieties is outlined in Illustration #3. Braeburn and Cripps Pink are the major varieties in the Other Variety category, followed by Cameo and Jonagold. This category will continue to see steady growth with the addition of early Fuji varieties and Honeycrisp. To better understand what is driving these changes in apple production in the state of Washington and how they are likely to change in the future, growers need to be aware of the state’s apple planting trends.

6

Illustration 3 WASHINGTON APPLE PRODUCTION OTHER VARIETIES (Million Boxes) Fresh Pack 1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

. 2002

2003

Est. 2004

Winesap

.333

.361

.373

.240

.220

.154

.161

.095

N/A*

N/A*

N/A*

N/A*

NA*

NA*

NA*

NA*

NA*

Rome

.787

.888

.917

.976

1.281

1.135

1.058

.871

.867

.808

.766

.512

.471

.365

NA*

NA*

NA*

Jonagold

.150

.246

.323

.390

.434

.552

.781

.824

.816

.929

1.024

.985

.731

1.093

1.157

Braeburn

.001

.019

.076

.401

.570

.982

1.494

1.780

1.972

1.833

2.782

2.280

2.464

2.514

3.524

Cameo

.245

.216

.536

.497

.803

.885

1.383

Cripps Pink

.110

.260

.651

.679

.405

1.250

1.844

Miscellaneous Total

.607

1.117

.911

.853

.777

.556

.656

.557

.697

.918

1.041

.906

1.245

.926

1.588

1.895

1.887

1.727

2.366

2.352

2.334

2.677

2.636

2.879

3.057

3.839

4.330

4.950

4.656

6.709

5.732

6.191

7.637

9.795

*estimates included in miscellaneous category.

Source: Yakima Valley Growers-Shippers Association

7

APPLE PLANTING TRENDS The 2004 Nursery Tree Survey is the ninth consecutive survey conducted by Tree Top, Inc. With the support of the nursery industry, we have been able to collect data on trees sold from 1986 to 2004, with estimates of trees budded for sale in the spring of 2005 and 2006. I would like to express my sincere thanks and appreciation to the nursery industry for sharing this vital information with us. Let’s review the results of this year’s update in Illustration #4 Red Delicious continues its declining trend as a percentage of trees sold for the most recent four years of our survey. The 2.4% indicated for Red Delicious in 2005 is the lowest percentage in the 21 years of data in the survey. The 2006, 2.7% represents the second lowest percentage. The reduced percentage of sales for Reds is a result of the poor return growers have received in the past. The trees being sold continue to be limited to the 4 to 5 high-coloring strains. Reds continue to be a big part of the variety mix for a warehouse. Future plantings will likely continue at these lower levels. Golden Delicious experienced a resurgence for the years from 2002 to 2004. The 11.2% of the trees sold in 2004 is the highest percentage recorded for Golden Delicious in the 21 years of our survey. However, the percentage dropped back to 4.1% and 5.4% for 2005 and 2006. This increase was a result of replacement planting for Reds and Goldens during those years. Goldens have generated steady returns for growers and have maintained consistent fresh market pricing. Growers are shifting to dwarfing root stocks and higher density planting. This variety is generally easier to grow and produces high yields per acre. Goldens are a versatile apple for either the fresh market or as a peeler for processing. If Goldens remain profitable, the variety should remain in the 5% to 10% range of trees being sold.

8

Illus tration 4 APPLE VARIETY TRENDS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL

(Millions) Trees

Est.

Est.

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

35.0%

29.9%

29.4%

35.7%

22.6%

13.8%

9.7%

25.3%

26.1%

23.1%

22.1%

20.1%

18.9%

10.0%

6.5%

9.5%

7.2%

5.1%

3.7%

2.4%

2.7%

Goldens

5.7%

8.3%

7.9%

5.3%

5.9%

4.7%

4.7%

8.1%

7.4%

7.3%

6.2%

5.1%

4.2%

4.5%

4.2%

6.4%

10.2%

9.9%

11.2%

4.1%

5.4%

Red Rom es

4.5%

4.6%

4.1%

3.5%

4.1%

5.0%

4.2%

3.4%

1.7%

0.6%

0.4%

0.5%

0.5%

0.6%

0.2%

1.1%

0.8%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.2%

23.3%

25.8%

13.6%

9.2%

4.9%

3.1%

3.1%

3.5%

3.7%

2.4%

6.4%

9.8%

15.7%

16.5%

13.2%

9.9%

10.9%

7.5%

6.2%

13.1%

11.6%

Jonagold

2.3%

3.5%

7.9%

2.3%

2.1%

4.2%

4.7%

5.8%

4.4%

2.8%

3.3%

2.6%

1.5%

1.6%

0.5%

1.6%

1.6%

0.8%

1.3%

3.3%

3.4%

Gala

6.3%

6.3%

3.8%

14.2%

25.1%

13.5%

10.2%

8.9%

12.3%

17.1%

23.2%

29.1%

33.5%

30.0%

27.1%

21.6%

24.7%

23.2%

27.5%

23.9%

23.0%

Red Fuji

0.3%

0.1%

3.5%

8.2%

16.3%

34.8%

30.9%

23.5%

25.4%

25.4%

15.5%

10.7%

7.0%

5.6%

6.8%

9.5%

7.5%

5.1%

8.1%

9.1%

9.6%

0.6%

1.7%

6.9%

16.6%

8.3%

4.7%

2.6%

2.3%

2.7%

1.6%

1.9%

3.9%

7.1%

5.0%

6.7%

7.7%

7.2%

5.1%

0.5%

4.4%

6.8%

1.8%

1.2%

1.9%

2.4%

4.1%

1.8%

1.8%

0.9%

0.4%

0.9%

1.3%

2.6%

6.0%

6.2%

4.3%

5.0%

1.7%

4.7%

3.4%

3.5%

3.0%

3.0%

2.7%

13.4%

4.9%

4.7%

7.4%

10.5%

10.4%

11.1%

APPLES Red Delicious

Granny S mith

Braeburn Cameo Cripps P ink Honeycrisp Others Total Total Trees

22.6%

21.5%

29.8%

21.0%

17.3%

14.0%

15.9%

13.2%

13.8%

13.0%

11.2%

11.6%

9.7%

20.4%

16.8%

22.6%

20.9%

28.8%

19.1%

22.8%

24.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100 .0%

2.11

2.79

2.16

2.52

1.92

2.15

2.25

3.11

3.58

3.61

4.00

4.13

4.31

3.47

3.53

3.85

4.25

2.07

2.29

3.31

3.05

9

Red Romes averaged .3% of trees sold from 2003 to 2005. The .2% for 2006 is the lowest percentage of trees sold for Romes and is the second time in our survey it has reached that level. Returns for Romes have been marginal. Many Rome orchards have been removed during the past few years. Most of the nursery sales are for replacement stock in existing orchards. Future sales are expected to remain at current low levels. Granny Smith plantings are rebounding from 7.5% and 6.2% in 2003 and 2004 to highs of 13.1% and 11.6% in 2005 and 2006. This variety’s popularity has been driven by strong fresh demand and steady fresh returns to growers. Granny Smith has emerged as one of the industry’s main varieties. It is the preferred “green” apple for both fresh and processing markets. All warehouses are handling Granny Smith in the sales mix. Removal of many Granny Smith orchards in California has created more opportunities for northwest growers. Future sales of Granny Smith trees should remain relatively stable. Jonagold plantings indicate an increasing trend for 2003 to 2006, with its percentage increasing from .8% to 3.4%. Jonagolds have found a niche in the fresh market. This variety responds well to MCP, which resulted in renewed interest by growers and marketers. Newer plantings are higher coloring strains. Jonagolds will probably range in the 2% to 3% of trees sold in the future. Gala continues to be the most popular variety planted in the state of Washington. From 2003 to 2006, this variety has ranged from 23% to 27.5%. Since 1996, Gala has been over 20% of trees sold every year. During this period it peaked at 33.5% in 1998. It has gained strong acceptance in the fresh market and has generated good returns for growers. The trend toward higher coloring strains continues. Many trees are being planted by growers as replacements for poorer coloring Gala orchards. Future sales of Gala trees should remain in the 20% range. Fuji are seeing a slight increase in the percentage of trees sold for 2003 to 2006, from 5.1% to 9.6%. It is the fourth most popular variety being planted from 2004 to 2006. New plantings are of higher coloring strains used to replace poor coloring Fuji orchards. This variety tends to be harder to grow and is more susceptible to alternate bearing than many other varieties. It is harvested later in the season and requires multiple pickings. Sales of Early Fuji varieties has also impacted sales of Red Fuji. Future tree sales are expected to remain in the 8% to 10% range. Braeburn shows a relatively stable trend for 2003 to 2006 in the 5% to 7.7% range. These are some of the highest percentages going back to the early-1990’s. 10

This variety has established a niche in the fresh market and has generated good returns for growers. The shift to redder coloring strains of Braeburn continues. The industry has solved its post-storage concerns for Braeburn through improved storage techniques. Future tree sales are expected to continue in the 5% to 7% range. Cameo has experienced a declining trend for 2003 to 2006, to less than 1% of trees sold. The low of .4% in 2005 is the lowest percentage for Cameo over the years of our survey. Cameo has become an established variety for the fresh market. It is in the hands of more shippers, which should strengthen its position in the market. This variety also tends to be alternate bearing. Cameo will probably be in the 1% range in the future. Cripps Pink shows a steady trend at 3% to 3.5% for 2003 to 2006. This variety has an established niche in the fresh market. Cripps Pink has a long growing season and tends not to be very grower-friendly. Planting trends should remain stable for the next few years at the current percentage. Honeycrisp is the newest variety added to this report as a “mainstream” variety. It is the third most popular variety being planted from 2004 to 2006 at 10.4% to 11.1% of trees sold. Honeycrisp is a sweet and juicy apple and is gaining acceptance in the fresh market. It is a tough variety to grow but has generated high per box returns. Some current tree sales are to growers outside the state of Washington. Honeycrisp will probably fill a niche in the market similar to Braeburn and Jonagold in the future. The Other category indicates an increasing trend for 2004 to 2006. The high percentage of 28.8% in 2003 is the second highest percentage for this category during the 21 years of our survey. The high percentage for “Others” indicates continued interest by growers to find new, more profitable apple varieties. The category consists of the four major sub-categories of Early Golden varieties, Early Fuji varieties, pollinators, and miscellaneous varieties. The percentage of trees sold for this category is shown in Illustration #5. Early Golden variety is the first sub-category and consists primarily of Earligold and Ginger Gold. These varieties continue to decline for the period from 2003 to 2006. The low of .2% for 2005 and 2006 is the lowest percentage for these varieties during the years of our survey. This low percentage is comparable to that for Red Romes. These varieties are harvested early in the season and fill a limited early market niche. They tend to be difficult to store beyond the early season. As 11

a result, they have not developed into a commercially viable variety for our industry. Future tree sales are expected to be less than 1%. Early Fuji varieties are the second sub-category. These varieties ranged from a low of 4% to a high of 7.4% from 2003 to 2006. These percentages are down from the peak of 11.7% shown for 2001. There are three major Early Fuji varieties being sold today. They mature earlier than Red Fujis and are harvested in September. The fruit is a full-color Fuji with high brix and good flavor. There is continued interest in this variety by growers, indicated by the strong demand for the current tree supply. These varieties are gaining greater market acceptance and should continue in the 4.6% to 7% range of trees sold. Pollinators include Manchurian and Flowering Crab, which make up the major portion of this sub-category. The percentage of pollinators has remained stable in the 2.6% to 4% range since 1995.

12

Illustration 5 APPLE VARIETY TRENDS OTHER VARIETIES PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL Estimate Estimate

Early Golden Types

1993

1994

1995

1996

2.4%

2.0%

5.8%

3.7%

1997 1998 2.3%

2.8%

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2.3%

1.2%

1.0%

1.3%

0.8%

0.3%

0.2%

0.2%

11.7%

7.2%

6.9%

4.0%

4.2%

7.4%

Early Fuji Pollinators

4.8%

6.2%

3.9%

4.0%

3.9%

3.0%

3.1%

2.8%

3.1%

3.8%

3.7%

3.0%

2.6%

3.0%

Misc.

6.0%

5.6%

3.3%

3.5%

5.4%

3.9%

15.0%

12.8%

6.8%

8.6%

17.4%

11.8%

15.8%

13.4%

13.2%

13.8%

13.0%

11.2%

11.6%

9.7%

20.4%

16.8%

22.6%

20.9%

28.8%

19.1%

22.8%

24.0%

Total Other Varieties

13

The Miscellaneous sub-category consists of Jonathans, Macintosh, Empire, Elstar, Idared, and newer varieties like Jazz and Ambrosia. This category peaked at 17.4% of trees sold in 2003. The percentage for 2004 to 2006 ranges from 11.8% to 15.8% and are the highest since the early 1990’s. High percentages indicate growers’ continued interest in finding and developing new commercial varieties. Total Trees Sold in our survey this year reflects an increasing trend for 2003 to 2006. The nursery industry is rebounding from the low of 2.07 million trees sold in 2001 of our survey. This reflects the improvement in the apple market over the past two years. This may also indicate a sustainable level of tree sales for the next few years of approximately 3 million trees per year. Total trees sold or budded for sale in this year’s update represents the compilation of responses from nine major nursery operations comprising a high percentage of commercial nursery trees sold in the northwest.

TREE DENSITY TRENDS In conjunction with variety trends, it is interesting to recognize tree density trends occurring in our industry. Tree Density Trends are shown in Illustration #6. The under 200 trees/acre (low-density) include seedlings, M111, and B118 rootstocks. Percentages of low-density have remained relatively stable from 2003 to 2006, ranging from 6% to 8.1% of trees budded for sale. This reflects Red Delicious and Golden Delicious plantings complementing or being planted with Reds that are not high-density plantings. The 200 – 500 trees/acre (medium-density) includes M106, M107, M4, and C-30 rootstocks. This category shows a steadily declining trend for 2003 to 2006 to a low 13.9%. This is the lowest percentage in the history of our survey for this category. This decline has been offset by increases primarily in high-density plantings. The over 500 trees/acre (high-density) includes M26, Mark, M9, B9, and C-16 rootstocks. This category shows an increasing trend for 2003 to 2006 to a high of 80.1% of trees budded for sale.

14

Illustration 6 TREE DENSITY TRENDS - APPLES WASHINGTON STATE (Millions) Trees

Est.

Est.

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

2006

Low

42.0%

31.8%

28.9%

31.6%

24.2%

21.5%

17.6%

15.7%

15.6%

13.1%

11.6%

16.2%

12.1%

6.7%

4.9%

13.3%

Medium

37.8%

41.3%

42.3%

40.8%

37.5%

33.9%

27.3%

37.6%

37.5%

34.9%

32.5%

30.4%

34.2%

26.4%

26.1%

High

20.2%

26.9%

28.8%

27.6%

38.3%

44.6%

55.1%

46.7%

46.9%

52.0%

55.9%

53.4%

53.7%

66.9%

69.0%

Total Total Trees

8.1%

6.9%

6.0%

7.1%

30.7%

25.8% 20.4%

17.3%

13.9%

14.0%

56.0%

65.8% 71.5%

75.8%

80.1%

78.9%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

100.0%

2.16

2.52

1.92

2.15

2.25

3.11

3.58

3.61

4.00

4.13

4.31

3.47

3.53

3.85

4.25

2.07

8.4%

2.29

2.11

2.79

3.31

3.05

15

PEAR PRODUCTION TRENDS Production trends for Winter Pears are shown in Illustrations #7 and #8. Winter pear production appears to have leveled out over the past few years at the 14 to 15 million boxes range. The industry peaked in 1997 at 16.8 million boxes. D’Anjou pears continue to make up 70% to 75% of the total winter pear production in the northwest. Bosc pears remain the second most popular pear variety at 16% to 20% of annual total volumes. Red D’Anjou continues a distant third, followed by Comice and the Other varieties. The Other Variety winter pear category has continued to decline through 2002. The production trend for Bartlett is shown in Illustration #9. Bartlett production has varied over the past few years for both fresh and processing. Fresh production peaked at 78,192 tons in 2003 and has remained in the 60,000 to 80,000 ton range from 2000 to 2004. Processed Bartletts peaked at 190,011 tons in 1997 and have ranged from a low of 132,478 tons in 1998 to a high of 182,586 tons in 1999. As with apples, growers need to understand production and planting trends for pear varieties when making decisions involving their own orchard operations and what varieties to plant in the future.

16

Illustration 7

WINTER PEAR PRODUCTION BY VARIETY (Million Boxes) Fresh Pack

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 '75

'85

'87

D'Anjou Comice

'89

'91

'93

'95

'97

Bosc Other Varieties

'99

'01

'03 ’04 Est.

Red D'Anjou*

* Prior to 1991, Red D’Anjous were included in the Other Variety category. 17

Illustration #8 WINTER PEAR PRODUCTION BY VARIETY Million Boxes

1975 1980 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Est.

D’Anjou

Bosc

5.436 5.764 6.623 7.423 8.713 9.618 9.771 10.209 9.750 8.876 11.807 10.889 12.215 9.229 12.565 11.329 10.031 11.233 11.184 10.917 10.812 9.282

.898 1.152 1.466 1.514 2.224 1.729 2.453 1.677 2.042 2.345 2.350 3.347 2.803 2.668 3.032 2.275 2.770 2.259 3.149 2.242 2.743 2.873

Red D’Anjou*

Comice

.092 .160 .251 .252 .351 .337 .429 .450 .509 .597 .604 .678 .708 .753

.104 .130 .259 .243 .365 .229 .329 .227 .184 .237 .251 .325 .218 .209 .190 .148 .179 .171 .243 .174 .196 .192

Other Varieties Total .060 .060 .042 .104 .159 .166 .239 .282 .245 .325 .418 .443 .515 .482 .614 .110 .143 .135 .175 .138 .182 .213

6.498 7.106 8.392 9.284 11.461 11.742 12.792 12.395 12.313 11.943 15.077 15.256 16.102 12.925 16.830 14.312 13.632 14.395 15.357 14.149 14.641 13.313

* Prior to 1991, Red D’Anjous were included in the Other Variety Category.

Source: Winter Pear Control Committee

18

Illustration #9

BARTLETT PEAR PRODUCTION WASHINGTON & OREGON 000’s Tons

200 150 100 50 0 '75

'85

'87

'89

'91

Fresh

'93

'95

'97

'99

'01

'03

'04

Processed

Source: Washington-Oregon Canning Pear Association

19

PEAR PLANTING TRENDS Planting trends for pears are shown in Illustration #10. As with apples, some interesting trends are occurring in the pear industry. D’Anjou tree sales continue to decline as a percentage from 2003 to 2006. Percentages for this period reflect a dramatic decrease from prior years. The low of 5.2% in 2005 is the lowest percentage reported for D’Anjou during the 21 years of our survey. Although D’Anjou continues as a primary winter pear, it is facing increased foreign competition. The fresh market has been relatively stable, but grower returns have not met expectations. Most tree sales are for upgrading existing orchards and not for developing new acreage. The industry’s “preconditioning program” is stimulating greater fresh demand, which improves movement and returns in the future. Red D’Anjou percentages ranged from a high of 8.1% in 2003 to a low of 4.4% in 2004. This was the lowest percentage for Red D’Anjou reported in our tree survey. Red D’Anjou is the preferred red pear in the market today. Although it is difficult to grow, returns to growers have been good. Future planting trends for Red D’Anjou should remain relatively stable. Bartlett is the most popular pear being planted for 2003 to 2006. It ranges from a low of 30.2% in 2004 to a high of 37.2% of trees budded for sale in 2005. The trend for the current four-year period is down from the high percentages in the 40% range during the mid-1990’s. Grower returns have been good over the past few years. The majority of tree sales are for orchard replacements or interplants. The decline in California production has been a positive for northwest growers. Red Bartlett shows a steady trend for 2003 to 2006, ranging from .9% to 1.3%. Red Bartlett is a difficult variety to grow and produce good red color. Most of the tree sales have been for replacement trees in existing orchards. Future tree sales are expected to remain at the current low levels of around 1%.

20

Bosc is the second most popular pear being planted from 2003 to 2006. Its percentage ranges from a low of 15.3% in 2003 to a high of 27.4% in 2004. This variety has experienced good market demand and generated good returns for growers. The shift continues to full russet varieties. Many of these trees are sold for replacements in existing orchards. The Asian pear variety has remained relatively stable as a percentage of trees sold or budded for sale from 2003 to 2006. This variety ranged from 3.8% in 2005 to 5.9% in 2006. Averages for this period are the highest for the years of our survey and indicate steady interest in this variety. This variety fills a niche market for pears and is gaining greater acceptance in the fresh market. Although it tends to be difficult to grow, it generates good returns for growers. The industry is shifting to full russet Asian pear varieties. Future planting should remain constant in the 4% to 6% range. The Concorde trend for 2003 to 2006 was relatively stable, but at lower percentages than in prior years. This variety ranged from 2.4% to 3.6% over the four-year period, which was down dramatically from its peak of 15.3% in 1999. This variety is popular in Europe and is gaining greater market acceptance in the USA. Fresh prices have been good over the past few years. Future sales will probably remain in the 3% to 4% range. The Other Varieties category includes Comice, Red Clap, Seckle, Cascade, Conference, Forelle, Pachems, and Taylor Gold. This category peaked in 2002 and 2003 at 28.7% and 27.1%. The range for 2004 to 2006 is from 20.8% to 23.2%. This is high compared to historical percentages. These high percentages reflect growers’ continuing interest in developing other pear varieties. The Total Trees Sold indicates a declining trend for 2003 to 2006. Reported tree sales are the lowest for the years of our survey, ranging from a low of 141,000 trees to 207,000 trees. The lower number of trees reported may indicate a sustainable level of pear tree sales for the future. This reduction may be the result of a maturing industry and the shift to cherries by growers as an alternative crop.

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PEAR PLANTING TRENDS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL

Illustration 10

2004 Nursery Tree Survey (000’s) Trees PEARS

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Est. 2005

D'Anjou

19.9%

16.5%

13.4%

15.8%

14.4%

17.6%

14.4%

16.0%

17.7%

16.4%

21.0%

21.8%

18.8%

17.8%

15.4%

17.9%

9.6%

6.8%

6.2%

5.2%

8.8%

Red D'Anjou

16.9%

18.4%

15.9%

18.7%

10.9%

6.9%

10.4%

2.9%

7.3%

5.9%

4.9%

4.9%

5.2%

9.5%

7.3%

8.0%

7.2%

8.1%

4.4%

5.7%

5.8%

Bartlett

9.5%

10.0%

10.4%

13.0%

16.1%

21.7%

27.8%

40.5%

36.1%

41.2%

43.6%

39.6%

40.7%

27.5%

44.4%

35.9%

28.1%

33.5%

30.2%

37.2%

30.7%

Red Bartlett

20.2%

18.7%

16.1%

11.4%

8.7%

3.8%

4.5%

3.1%

2.6%

2.3%

1.8%

1.1%

1.4%

1.0%

0.9%

0.6%

1.2%

1.3%

1.2%

0.9%

1.1%

Bosc

23.9%

23.8%

25.6%

28.4%

31.6%

33.7%

27.8%

25.4%

23.9%

19.1%

13.5%

19.0%

16.9%

18.1%

13.0%

11.5%

14.5%

15.3%

27.4%

22.8%

22.0%

Asian

2.6%

3.0%

4.2%

2.1%

5.2%

3.3%

3.8%

4.3%

3.6%

4.8%

4.8%

3.4%

1.5%

2.4%

1.1%

7.5%

5.2%

5.5%

4.9%

3.8%

5.9%

2.1%

3.2%

15.3%

10.7%

1.7%

5.5%

2.4%

2.4%

3.6%

2.5%

Concorde

Est. 2006

Others

7.0%

9.6%

14.4%

10.6%

13.1%

13.0%

11.3%

7.8%

8.8%

10.3%

10.4%

8.1%

12.3%

8.4%

7.2%

16.9%

28.7%

27.1%

23.3%

20.8%

23.2%

Total

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

Total Trees

280

383

300

337

365

373

423

263

296

259

225

305

308

287

308

382

334

185

207

141

169

22

SUMMARY

In closing, the Nursery Tree Survey update has revealed several interesting trends: 1) Both Apple and Pear growers are continuing to plant a broad mix of varieties in order to diversify their orchard operations. 2) Gala remains the most popular apple variety being planted in the industry. It is followed closely by Granny Smith and Honey Crisp. 3) The high-density planting trend continues to dominate in the apple industry. However, low-density plantings remain stable for 2003 to 2006 while medium-density plantings continue to decline. 4) Bartletts remain the most popular pear variety being planted today, followed by Bosc, which continues to grow in popularity. 5) As in the past, growers need to continue to work closely with their warehouse sales department and their nursery in selecting which varieties to plant in the future. This concludes my review of the production and planting trends for apples and pears.

23

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