APARTMENT MARKET REPORT
Tampa Bay
© 2014 MPF Research
w w w.mpf research .co m
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1Q 2014
CONTENTS
SUBMARKETS
Executive Summary Market Fundamentals Supply Overview Product Niche Overview Submarket Overview Market Characteristics Supplementary Market Statistics Methodology
3 8 9 11 14 63 66 74
1 Central Tampa 2 Peninsula 3 Town and Country/Westchase 4 Egypt Lake/Lowry Park 5 Carrollwood/Citrus Park 6 University 7 Temple Terrace 8 New Tampa/East Pasco County 9 Brandon/Southeast Hillsborough County 10 South St. Petersburg 11 North St. Petersburg 12 Largo/Seminole 13 Clearwater 14 North Pinellas County 15 West Pasco County/Hernando County
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
©2014 MPF Research. This MPF Apartment Market Report is published quarterly by MPF Research, a division of RealPage, Inc. Material in this report is for the sole and exclusive use of subscribers and may not be reprinted, resold, or recorded in any manner, in whole or in part, without the specific written permission of MPF Research. Any infringement will be subject to legal redress. At the heart of MPF Research’s operations, the company’s database of individual apartment community performances is the largest in the industry. For the most recent quarter, occupancy and rent results were tracked for about 36,000 apartment communities with roughly 7.5 million units. Also, ongoing construction is monitored on a project‐by‐project basis in many cities. 4000 International Parkway Carrollton, TX 75007 (972) 820‐3100 www.mpfresearch.com
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1Q 2014
SNAPSHOT Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
193,697 117,507 60.7%
SUPPLY Quarterly Supply Annual Supply Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Supply Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply Five‐Year Average Annual Supply
86 units 2,003 units 1.0% 11,309 units 3,747 units 1,392 units 2,186 units
DEMAND Quarterly Demand Annual Demand Five‐Year Demand Five‐Year Annual Demand Peak Five‐Year Annual Demand Trough Five‐Year Average Annual Demand
‐76 units 2,721 units 16,279 units 5,749 units ‐917 units 3,065 units
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average Five‐Year Average Annual Change
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7% 0.6
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply Annual Demand Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change Annual Rent Change Annual Revenue Change Annual Job Change
© 2014 MPF Research
4,325 units 3,478 units 93.9% ‐0.3 2.2% 1.9% 25,000
Lackluster demand leaves the Tampa Bay apartment market struggling for momentum in 1st quarter Overview: The Tampa Bay apartment market continues to post lackluster fundamentals, and yet, apartment development is accelerating faster than is perhaps ideal. Construction levels have remained elevated over the past five quarters, and the first wave of that product will begin completing in the coming months – testing the market’s ability to absorb new product. The ramp up in construction has been somewhat surprising, given generally soft apartment demand over the past two years. Contributing to the demand woes has been competition from the large and increasing number of single‐ family rental homes – which has, in many spots, compelled apartment operators to price conservatively in recent years. In addition, the local economy is still trying to recoup jobs lost to the recession. Though job growth has been occurring at a solid clip recently, the types of jobs being added here aren’t what were lost to the recession, changing the makeup of the employment base. Increased construction and mediocre demand tailwinds are already affecting top‐tier product, which posted basically flat occupancy change and minimal rent growth over the past year. With soft demand and increasing supply, the Tampa Bay apartment market could see fundamentals sag over the coming year. What changed this quarter? Apartment occupancy in Tampa Bay held steady at 94.2%, near where rates have hovered for the past two years. Without occupancy momentum, rent growth has continued at modest levels. Rental rates inched up 0.1% in the quarter and rose 1.8% year‐over‐year. Outlook: Tampa Bay’s apartment sector has been on a slow upward trajectory. With job growth accelerating and the for‐sale housing market beginning to show early signs of healing, the apartment market would be positioned to start seeing more meaningful revenue growth … if not for the fact that new supply is about to ramp up. Apartment development has jumped to the highest levels since 2002. By 2014’s 3rd quarter, new supply levels on an annual basis are set to top the 4,000‐unit mark for the first time in 10 years – and they’ll likely remain elevated above that mark at least through the first half of 2015. Reflecting the nationwide trend favoring urban development, half of Tampa Bay’s elevated construction total is concentrated just in the Central Tampa submarket. That will expand the submarket’s inventory base a remarkable 27.3% – a huge test for a market still working to build a vibrant urban core. The good news is that, outside of St. Petersburg, new supply won’t be a big factor elsewhere – which should help given that competition with single‐family rentals is still substantial, particularly given demographics tilted toward single‐family homes. Furthermore, job growth should remain solid, and Tampa Bay is on track to recoup all the jobs lost in the recession by early 2015. Overall, these factors should balance out to lead to slight occupancy declines and limited rent growth through at least the first half of 2015. TAMPA BAY | 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1Q 2014 Key Storylines
Units Under Construction
Construction is ramping up, especially in Central Tampa
8k 6k 4k 2k 0k
1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Annual Employment Change
100k
Employment base growing, but still hasn’t fully recovered from recession
50k 0k -50k -100k 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Foreclosure Inv entory (Dec. 2013) Inv entory Change (YOY) Foreclosure Volume (2013) So urce: Co reLo gic
© 2014 MPF Research
Tampa Orlando 7.6%
Tampa Bay has seen job growth over the past two years, with annual additions expanding the employment base more than 2% in each of the past nine quarters, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the recession hit the Tampa Bay economy harder than many other U.S. markets. So even with recent growth, Tampa Bay’s job total remains about 1.6% below the 1st quarter 2008 level. That’s unlike Orlando, where the deep job cuts have been offset by hiring. In addition, the types of jobs added in Orlando were similar to types lost. But in Tampa Bay, the local economy is seeing a structural shift. Recessionary job cuts were proportionally higher in the Construction and Manufacturing industries – positions which are unlikely to be replaced due to structural shifts in the U.S. economy. Another sizable chunk of cuts were to back‐office credit card processing jobs that had been a significant component of the employment base. Those are also unlikely to come back, with many firms having shifted those operations to other markets. But the metro has seen post‐recession job growth across employment sectors, diversifying the economy a bit. However, growth has been strongest in Business/Professional Services and Education/Health Services sectors. And, encouragingly, a sizable chunk of the jobs added in those fields have been in moderate‐ and higher‐paying subcategories. Continued job growth will further reshape the Tampa Bay economy.
Tampa Bay’s pool of single‐family rentals continues to grow
Single-Family Performance Metric
The Tampa Bay apartment market has seen a lot of development activity recently, as construction levels at the end of 1st quarter 2014 were among the metro’s highest since 2002. The 6,123 units under way represented 3.2% of the existing inventory base. The increased construction volumes of late are somewhat surprising, given that apartment occupancy rates and rent growth levels remain well below pre‐recession norms. It’s a similar trend to what has been occurring in a peer market, Orlando. But while construction in Orlando also has ramped up earlier than expected, Orlando has more favorable demand drivers, making it better positioned to absorb new supply. Orlando’s population is younger, with a median age of 36, compared to Tampa Bay’s 42. Orlando also has stronger broad‐ based job growth and lower apartment vacancy across the board. In Tampa Bay, the oncoming supply will test the metro’s ability to absorb new product without sacrificing much on rental rates. Certain market segments will be tested more than others. For example, nearly half of the metro’s new apartment stock is scheduled for delivery in the metro’s priciest market, Central Tampa. Another big chunk of units under way were in projects coming to the two St. Petersburg submarkets.
6.7%
-3.1%
-3.6%
17,373
11,993
With the sharp economic downturn in Tampa Bay, the single‐family home market cratered and the recovery process has changed the housing mix. Recessionary job losses decreased the share of owner‐occupied single‐family homes, opening an opportunity for investors to purchase foreclosed and distressed real estate. The result was a significant increase in rental homes – which means lots of new competition for apartments in certain spots, given local demographics that tend to favor single‐family. In fact, the metro’s share of occupied rental single‐family homes rose from 13.1% in 2006 to 19.2% in 2012, according to Census data. In recent quarters, institutional buying has slowed as prices have climbed, and now conventional transactions comprise a larger share of total sales. Still, nearly half of the home sales in Tampa Bay last year were distressed transactions. Median prices in Tampa Bay rose nearly 15% year‐over‐year in 2013, beating the national average. The $155,000 median price was the highest since 2008, according to local media. The upswing in prices helped residents regain some of the equity lost during the recession. But negative equity still plagues Tampa. As of year‐end 2013,
TAMPA BAY | 4
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1Q 2014 (continued) the metro still had the second‐highest percentage of underwater mortgages (30.4%) among the 25 largest U.S. metros, according to CoreLogic. Only Orlando had a higher percentage (31.5%). In turn, the metro’s pool of single‐family rentals, already competing with the apartment industry for renters, is expected to continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years.
Annual Rent Change by Year Built 4%
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Older units and peninsula submarkets drive rent growth
3% 2% 1% 0%
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Demand vs. Occupancy 8k
Annual Demand (L)
Occupancy (R)
6k
96% 94%
4k
92%
2k
90%
0k
88%
-2k 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14
Construction Activity in Central Tampa 4k
Despite relatively solid employment growth recently, the Tampa Bay metro is still dealing with excesses from the housing bust. In turn, apartment rent growth has been limited by a number of factors. The metro’s overall annual rent growth slipped to 1.8% in 1st quarter 2014, which was in line with the 10‐year average. Bolstering that performance was the pre‐1980 stock, which saw combined same‐ store rent growth of 3.4%. Meanwhile, units built in the 1980s and 1990s averaged growth of 2.2%. Mediocre rent growth in that middle‐tier product niche is likely to continue due to an expanded pool of single‐family rentals. Apartment construction and limited demand for higher‐priced units also has contributed to constrained rent growth in the 2000+ niche (0.5% in the year‐ending 1st quarter 2014). By comparison, rent growth has been better on the Pinellas County side of the metro, most notably in South St. Petersburg, Largo/Seminole and North Pinellas County, logging annual rent growth of 4% to 7% in 1st quarter 2014.
Occupancy stalls around 94% due to soft demand As Tampa Bay began to recover from the downturn, apartment occupancy slowly trended up from a low of 90.3% in 2009. But over the past eight quarters, occupancy has essentially stalled at around 94%. The lack of occupancy growth hasn’t been due to new supply. Even though construction levels have remained elevated in recent quarters, few of those projects have completed, keeping new supply volumes at historically low‐to‐normal levels. Instead, the metro’s occupancy woes are the result of soft demand. Annual apartment demand has generally trended down over the past two years. Demand problems are structural, stemming from demographic characteristics such as older population, an economy still in the red and other factors such as competition from a growing single‐family rental pool. The metro’s occupancy woes are widespread across market segments. Among product age niches, only the 1980s showed meaningful occupancy growth over the past year. As a result, that niche logged the highest rate (95.1%) in 1st quarter 2014. Most submarkets in the Tampa Bay metro have occupancy around 93% to 95%, with the Peninsula and Central Tampa submarkets leading the way.
Central Tampa’s demand tailwinds will be tested by record supply wave
3k 2k 1k 0k 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14
© 2014 MPF Research
Central Tampa was among the hardest‐hit submarkets in Tampa Bay during the recession. But the plunge in fundamentals was caused more by aggressive construction than by the economic downturn. More than 2,100 units completed in Central Tampa from 2008 through 2010, expanding the inventory base 21.4% during a period of weak demand, sending occupancy down to 81.7% in 2010’s 2nd quarter. The submarket has since recovered. But an even bigger wave of construction – the largest in the submarket’s history – threatens to drag down fundamentals again, even amidst a period of job growth. The 3,122 units under way at the end 1st quarter 2014 represented 27.3% of Central Tampa’s inventory. The first big block of new product will complete in 2nd quarter, when 1,108 units deliver. Another 1,074 units will complete in the second half of 2014, and another 940 units are scheduled for completion in 2015. The urban core focus reflects the national trend toward urban development, but it’s a riskier play here than in other market. There isn’t a big block of traditional apartment product in Tampa’s urban core, and what is there has seen a lot of volatility in performance. Furthermore, Tampa’s core hasn’t yet matured to offer 24/7 appeal, and this development wave represents a bet on Central Tampa’s maturation into a vibrant
TAMPA BAY | 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1Q 2014 (continued) downtown. So far, occupancy rates have held up in advance of the supply wave, but annual rent growth levels have been minimal – at best – for the last six quarters. Specifically in 1st quarter 2014, same‐store rents for new leases were down 0.7% year‐over‐year.
Other Highlights •
The population in Florida could exceed New York by 2015, making it the third most populous state. The current Tampa Bay population is 2.8 million residents. Population growth in recent years has been attributed more to net migration (70%) rather than births over deaths (30%).
•
As of 2013, the median home price in Tampa was $155,000, the highest level since 2008. Last year the metro saw over 35,000 home sales, the highest number of sales since 2005.
•
According to CoreLogic, more than 100,000 homeowners regained equity within the last year pushing the ratio of underwater mortgages to roughly 30%. Tampa Bay has the nation’s second‐highest percentage of homes with negative
equity, behind Orlando. The Tampa Bay metro had the nation’s second‐highest number of foreclosures last year, but that number is expected to fall.
•
Central Tampa was the metro’s rent leader by far, posting average monthly rents of $1,307 during 2014’s 1st quarter. The second‐highest rates were captured in Town and Country/Westchase, where average monthly rents were $990.
•
Largo/Seminole and North Pinellas County scored the biggest annual revenue gains, between 6% and 8%. Both submarkets achieved this with minimal deliveries, maintaining tight occupancy near 95% and by pushing rents roughly 5% to 7%.
Questions to Watch •
When does supply normalize? MPF expects supply levels to peak in 2014‐2015 before normalizing in 2016, with the impact primarily isolated to the urban core and to the two St. Petersburg submarkets.
•
What kind of impact will rising home prices have on the apartment sector? Contrary to popular thinking, a healthy apartment sector is often correlated with a strong for‐sale housing market. Instability in Tampa Bay’s single‐family sector in recent years has greatly expanded the pool of shadow market rentals and pulled down the overall economy, which in turn impacts apartment demand and rent growth potential.
© 2014 MPF Research
Rising home prices and a thinning pool of distressed homes should correlate with improved apartment market performance, though Tampa Bay has other headwinds (supply, affordability, demographics) that will temper growth levels.
•
When will rent growth levels accelerate again? The answer may be that the “new normal” for rent growth is below the norms of the previous up‐cycle. The problem isn’t just new supply – which is generally isolated to a few spots. It’s general affordability and demographics, plus the fact that Tampa Bay has substantially more alternative rentals today compared to the previous cycle.
TAMPA BAY | 6
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1Q 2014
Annual Supply and Demand Supply
6k
Demand
Annual Rent Change Forecast
6% 4%
4k
2%
2k
0% -2%
0k
-4%
-2k 1Q 09
96%
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 15
Occupancy
-6%
6%
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Annual Revenue Change
4%
94%
2%
92%
0% -2%
90%
-4% 88% 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 15
-6%
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 15
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST: 1Q 2015 Annual Supply Annual Demand Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change Annual Rent Change Annual Revenue Change Annual Job Change
© 2014 MPF Research
4,325 units 3,478 units 93.9% ‐0.3 2.2% 1.9% 25,000
TAMPA BAY | 7
MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
1Q 2014
SUPPLY and DEMAND In 1st quarter 2014, Tampa Bay received two new properties with a total of 86 units. Those deliveries took annual completions to 2,003 units, which grew the apartment base 1.0% – in line with the metro’s two‐year average. But new supply volumes in Tampa Bay are picking up. At the end of 1st quarter, 23 properties with a total of 6,123 units were under construction in the metro. That’s above the 10‐ year average of 3,746 units, but still well below the peak of over 13,000 units seen in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Of what’s currently under way, a total of 4,325 units are expected to come online over the coming year. This will expand the inventory base 2.2%. Meanwhile, the metro recorded net move‐outs from 76 units in 2014’s 1st quarter. Due to prior demand, Tampa Bay absorbed 2,721 units in the past year.
Supply Quarterly
4k
Annual
3k 2k 1k 0k 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
1Q 14
OCCUPANCY During 1st quarter 2014, occupancy in Tampa Bay registered at 94.2% – unchanged from the previous quarter, but up 0.5 points year‐over‐year. Occupancy rates were weakest in the older properties built in the 1970s or before, with a weighted average occupancy rate of 92.9%. The best reading was seen in middle‐market units, with the rate at 95.1% in the 1980s product age niche. Looking at preliminary results from MPF Research’s 1st quarter survey, Tampa Bay’s 1st quarter occupancy rate landed slightly above the South region norm (94.0%), but registered below the U.S. average (95.0%).
RENT Tampa Bay saw same‐store rents tick up 0.1% in 2014’s 1st quarter. Due to previous increases, annual rent change measured 1.8%. Though mild, that was the 14th consecutive quarter of year‐over‐year gains for Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay’s annual rent growth in 1st quarter registered below the preliminary averages for both the South region (2.7%) and U.S. overall (3.2%). Holding back annual rent growth levels in Tampa Bay were the 2000+ units (0.5%). On the other hand, the pre‐1970 and 1970s segments posted growth of 3.7% and 3.4%, respectively. As of 2014’s 1st quarter, rents for all existing product in metro Tampa Bay averaged $893 per month, or $0.953 per square foot.
PERMITS Recent permit figures for the Tampa Bay metro area illustrate that building activity is picking up, but remains fairly limited compared to pre‐recession levels. New multifamily authorizations by building permit totaled 1,390 units during 2014’s January‐February time frame. That two‐month tally took annual approvals to 4,542 units (with 4,174 of those units authorized during the 11‐month period ending in February 2014). This annual volume was down 14.5% from the level approved a year earlier. Among the 100 key metros nationally, Tampa Bay placed in the #23 spot for annual multifamily building authorizations. Looking back, Tampa Bay’s all‐ time high for multifamily permits registered at 15,000 units, a volume that was sustained for a three‐year period from 1984 to 1986. During the past decade, permit volumes peaked at nearly 6,700 units in in the year‐ending 2nd quarter 2006.
Demand
© 2014 MPF Research
Annual
4k 2k 0k -2k 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
Occupancy Comparison Metro
97%
South
U.S.
95% 93% 91% 89%
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Annual Rent Change Comparison
EMPLOYMENT Tampa Bay gained 29,600 jobs in the year‐ending February 2014, according to preliminary figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That increase translated to a 2.5% expansion of the metro’s employment base. Among the 100 core markets, Tampa Bay ranked 18th for absolute job change. During the past year, expansion was most pronounced in the Professional/Business Services, Trade/Transportation/Utilities and Education/Health Services segments. Despite recent growth, however, Tampa Bay’s total employment count as of February remained 19,800 jobs (or 1.6%) below the level seen in 1st quarter 2008. The metro’s strongest year‐over‐year performance over the past decade occurred in 2004, when gains topped out at nearly 56,000 jobs.
Quarterly
6k
Metro
6%
South
U.S.
4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
TAMPA BAY | 8
SUPPLY OVERVIEW Sub# 2 3 6 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 13 14
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters Jefferson Westshore 6608 S West Shore Blv d, Tampa, FL 33616 Sedona (The) 12802 Saddle Club Circle, Tampa, FL 33635 Flats at 4200 (The) 4200 E Fletcher Av e, Tampa, FL 33613 Links at Pebble Creek (The) 18940 Pebble Links Cir, Tampa, FL 33647 Altis at Grand Cypress II 1901 Cypress Preserv e Dr, Lutz, FL 33549 Crescent Crosstown 9712 Bosque Creek Cir, Tampa, FL 33619 Campbell Landings 365 6th St S, St Petersburg, FL 33701 Harbour's Edge 300 4th Av e S, St Petersburg, FL 33701 Urban Landing 320 4th Av e S, St Petersburg, FL 33701 Elan Gateway 11800 Dr Martin Luther King Jr St N, St. Petersburg, FL 33716 Amalfi at Clearwater (The) 106 Hampton Rd, Clearwater, FL 33759 Sunrise Place 802 Mango St, Tarpon Springs, FL 34689
1Q 2014 Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Jefferson Apartment Group
Conv entional
246
3
11/12 12/13
The Richman Group of Companies
Conv entional
240
3
09/12 12/13
Edwards Companies
Student
314
4
02/12 08/13
Bayfair Properties
Conv entional
168
3
01/12 04/13
The Altman Companies
Conv entional
46
3
04/13 03/14
Crescent Communities
Conv entional
344
3
05/12 11/13
DDA Dev elopment
Senior
96
5
01/13 12/13
Atlantic Housing Partners
Senior
125
5
02/13 12/13
Atlantic Housing Partners
Affordable
40
5
02/13 02/14
Greystar
Conv entional
240
3
05/12 10/13
The Richman Group of Companies
Conv entional
108
3
03/12 04/13
Tarpon Springs Housing Authority
Affordable
36
2
07/12 07/13
Total Units: 2,003
Sub# 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 8
Properties Under Construction Modera Westshore 4504 W Spruce St, Tampa, FL 33607 Trio at ENCORE! (The) 1101 Ray Charles Blv d, Tampa, FL 33602 NoHo Flats 401 N Rome Av e, Tampa, FL 33606 Pierhouse at Channelside 1226 E Cumberland Av e, Tampa, FL 33602 Post SoHo Square 720 S Howard Av e, Tampa, FL 33606 Crescent Bayshore 319 Bayshore Blv d, Tampa, FL 33606 Madison Heights E Fortune St & N Marion St, Tampa, FL 33602 Adagio at Westshore Palms 4214 W Gray St, Tampa, FL 33609 Varela W Spruce St & N Lois Av e, Tampa, FL 33607 Reed at ENCORE! (The) 1240 Ray Charles Blv d, Tampa, FL 33602 Broadstone Hyde Park S Rome Av e & W Clev eland St, Tampa, FL 33606 Tempo at ENCORE! (The) 1102 Ray Charles Blv d, Tampa, FL 33602 SkyHouse Channelside Washington St & Whiting St, Tampa, FL 33602 Altis at Highland Park Race Track Rd, Tampa, FL 33626 Bonterra Parc State Road 56 & Northwood Palms Blv d, Tampa, FL 33544
© 2014 MPF Research
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC
Conv entional
300
6
09/12 04/14
Tampa Housing Authority
Affordable
141
6
12/12 05/14
Pollack Shores Real Estate Group
Conv entional
311
4
12/12 06/14
The Related Companies
Conv entional
356
4
06/12 06/14
Post Properties Inc
Conv entional
231
4
03/13 07/14
Crescent Communities
Conv entional
367
8
11/12 08/14
American Realty Dev elopment Inc
Senior
80
7
08/13 08/14
Alan Dev elopment
Conv entional
46
3
09/13 09/14
Crosland LLC
Conv entional
350
5
05/13 11/14
Tampa Housing Authority
Senior
158
7
12/12 01/15
Alliance Residential Company
Conv entional
259
5
11/13 04/15
Tampa Housing Authority
Affordable
203
7
02/14 06/15
Conv entional
320
23
02/14 08/15
The Altman Companies
Conv entional
239
3
05/13 09/14
AG Spanos Companies
Conv entional
264
4
02/14 06/15
Nov are Group/Baston-Cook Dev elopment Company
TAMPA BAY | 9
SUPPLY OVERVIEW Sub# 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13
1Q 2014
Properties Under Construction
Developer
Beacon 430 (The) 430 3rd Av e S, St Petersburg, FL 33701 Modera Prime 235 235 3rd Av e N, St Petersburg, FL 33701 Epic at Gateway Centre (The) 3115 Grand Av e, Pinellas Park, FL 33782
The NRP Group LLC
Conv entional
326
4
02/13 08/14
Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC
Conv entional
309
8
01/13 11/14
The Richman Group of Companies
Conv entional
320
4
03/13 09/14
Hines Interests
Conv entional
308
4
01/13 10/14
Grady Pridgen Inc
Conv entional
410
4
05/13 04/15
Senior
153
4
08/12 04/14
Conv entional
330
4
07/12 07/14
Conv entional
342
3
10/13 04/15
Azure 540 Trinity Ln N, St Petersburg, FL 33716 Ibis Walk 8701 Ibis Walk Pl, St. Petersburg, FL 33716 Pinellas Heights
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Norstar Dev elopment USA LP/Pinellas
11411 Ulmerton Rd, Largo, FL 33778
County Housing Authority
Courtney at Bay Pines (The)
ContraVest Dev /Northwestern Mutual
4652 Miramar Dr, St. Petersburg, FL 33708 Gateway North
Pollack Shores Real Estate Group
2681 Roosev elt Blv d, Clearwater, FL 33760
Total Units: 6,123
Note: Submarket map is available in the Methodology Section.
DEVELOPMENT LEADERS Developer Crescent Communities The Richman Group of Companies
Units Completed in the
Units Under
Last Four Quarters 344
Construction 367
Total Units
348
320
668
711
Pollack Shores Real Estate Group
0
653
653
Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC
0
609
609
Tampa Housing Authority
0
502
502
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 10
PRODUCT NICHE OVERVIEW
1Q 2014
SNAPSHOT OCCUPANCY Current Niche
RENT Monthly
Change
Change
Rate
Quarterly
Annual
Rent
Quarterly
Annual
94.3% 94.2% 95.1% 93.0% 90.8%
0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 0.2 ‐2.8
0.3 0.1 1.3 ‐0.1 ‐1.4
$1,086 $961 $778 $756 $691
‐0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8%
0.5% 1.9% 2.3% 3.4% 3.7%
94.1% 95.0% 94.4%
‐0.1 ‐0.7 ‐1.9
0.4 0.3 4.1
$864 $1,420 $1,264
0.2% ‐2.9% 3.3%
2.1% ‐3.7% 3.1%
Eff 1 BR 2 BR 3 BR
94.2% 94.3% 94.1% 94.0%
‐0.3 0.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.4
3.9 0.3 0.5 0.0
$621 $757 $937 $1,179
1.2% 0.7% 0.1% ‐1.1%
4.2% 2.1% 1.9% 0.7%
METRO AVERAGE
94.2%
0.0
0.5
$893
0.1%
1.8%
YEAR BUILT 2000+ 1990s 1980s 1970s Pre‐1970 BUILDING HEIGHT Low‐Rise Mid‐Rise High‐Rise UNIT TYPE
Occupancy by Year Built 2000+ 1970s
100%
1990s Pre-1970
Annual Rent Change by Year Built
1980s
10%
95%
5%
90%
0%
85%
-5%
80%
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
-10%
99%
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
6%
97%
Pre-1970
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1980s
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
4%
95%
2% 0%
93%
-2%
91% 89%
1990s
1970s
Annual Rent Change by Building Height
Occupancy by Building Height Low-Rise
2000+
-4% -6% 1Q 13
© 2014 MPF Research
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
TAMPA BAY | 11
PRODUCT NICHE OVERVIEW
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
92.9%
91.0%
92.9%
92.8%
93.4%
93.5%
93.3%
93.1%
91.7%
91.1%
93.0%
89.3%
96.9%
2Q 12
93.7%
93.0%
93.5%
93.8%
94.1%
94.3%
93.8%
93.4%
93.4%
91.2%
93.6%
93.3%
98.3%
3Q 12
94.1%
91.0%
94.0%
94.2%
94.4%
95.0%
94.4%
93.5%
93.6%
92.9%
94.0%
94.5%
95.0%
4Q 12
93.9%
91.4%
94.0%
93.9%
94.2%
94.6%
94.0%
93.6%
93.5%
92.3%
93.9%
93.4%
97.4%
1Q 13
93.7%
90.3%
94.0%
93.6%
94.0%
94.0%
94.1%
93.8%
93.1%
92.2%
93.7%
94.7%
90.3%
2Q 13
94.6%
91.3%
94.7%
94.6%
95.1%
94.8%
94.7%
94.7%
94.3%
92.8%
94.6%
95.3%
93.3%
3Q 13
94.6%
91.2%
94.7%
94.5%
95.0%
95.1%
94.6%
94.5%
94.0%
93.0%
94.5%
94.6%
97.6%
4Q 13
94.2%
94.5%
94.2%
94.2%
94.4%
94.3%
94.2%
95.2%
92.8%
93.6%
94.2%
95.7%
96.3%
1Q 14
94.2%
94.2%
94.3%
94.1%
94.0%
94.3%
94.2%
95.1%
93.0%
90.8%
94.1%
95.0%
94.4%
1Q 12
$843
$551
$707
$883
$1,168
$1,053
$906
$740
$708
$660
$814
$1,440
$1,299
2Q 12
$856
$556
$721
$897
$1,170
$1,051
$927
$744
$722
$677
$825
$1,483
$1,240
3Q 12
$873
$562
$735
$915
$1,181
$1,084
$941
$755
$722
$681
$840
$1,482
$1,343
4Q 12
$872
$570
$730
$913
$1,194
$1,084
$936
$754
$725
$690
$840
$1,453
$1,353
1Q 13
$878
$572
$740
$915
$1,192
$1,081
$945
$763
$725
$666
$846
$1,496
$1,260
2Q 13
$880
$578
$743
$926
$1,175
$1,075
$943
$770
$744
$683
$852
$1,471
$1,200
3Q 13
$888
$576
$752
$931
$1,193
$1,085
$961
$776
$749
$682
$858
$1,507
$1,204
4Q 13
$893
$617
$752
$936
$1,194
$1,086
$953
$782
$754
$702
$863
$1,507
$1,258
1Q 14
$893
$621
$757
$937
$1,179
$1,086
$961
$778
$756
$691
$864
$1,420
$1,264
1Q 12
$0.910
$1.250
$0.997
$0.857
$0.897
$0.972
$0.914 $0.919 $0.810
$0.816
$0.886
$1.303
$1.444
2Q 12
$0.920
$1.245
$1.015
$0.867
$0.898
$0.974
$0.927 $0.922 $0.829
$0.829
$0.893
$1.357
$1.379
3Q 12
$0.935
$1.267
$1.035
$0.883
$0.904
$0.998
$0.941 $0.937 $0.829
$0.835
$0.906
$1.369
$1.493
4Q 12
$0.932
$1.279
$1.027
$0.880
$0.909
$0.996
$0.934 $0.929 $0.831
$0.846
$0.904
$1.339
$1.504
1Q 13
$0.938
$1.290
$1.039
$0.885
$0.909
$0.998
$0.951 $0.942 $0.828
$0.816
$0.909
$1.401
$1.408
2Q 13
$0.944
$1.307
$1.044
$0.896
$0.899
$0.997
$0.949 $0.950 $0.851
$0.840
$0.918
$1.396
$1.342
3Q 13
$0.949
$1.303
$1.055
$0.896
$0.911
$1.002
$0.959 $0.954 $0.852
$0.835
$0.922
$1.398
$1.345
4Q 13
$0.952
$1.369
$1.055
$0.900
$0.911
$1.003
$0.954 $0.958 $0.854
$0.866
$0.925
$1.389
$1.406
1Q 14
$0.953
$1.383
$1.062
$0.902
$0.901
$1.002
$0.962 $0.954 $0.864
$0.848
$0.928
$1.324
$1.349
1Q 12
2.1%
3.6%
2.3%
1.8%
2.4%
2.3%
3.0%
2.4%
0.4%
1.1%
1.6%
5.5%
14.8%
2Q 12
2.4%
1.2%
2.9%
2.2%
2.4%
1.5%
3.8%
3.0%
2.5%
2.6%
2.3%
4.1%
4.5%
3Q 12
2.8%
4.0%
4.0%
2.7%
1.0%
2.1%
2.9%
3.5%
2.9%
5.7%
2.8%
2.8%
4.2%
4Q 12
1.8%
4.0%
2.2%
1.9%
0.7%
0.9%
1.4%
2.7%
2.8%
1.0%
1.9%
-0.2%
6.7%
1Q 13
1.3%
1.6%
1.8%
1.4%
0.0%
0.9%
2.3%
1.4%
1.1%
1.6%
1.4%
-0.9%
2.2%
2Q 13
2.3%
4.1%
2.5%
2.9%
0.4%
2.9%
1.2%
2.5%
2.1%
1.8%
2.3%
3.0%
2.3%
3Q 13
2.1%
2.0%
2.3%
2.0%
1.9%
1.2%
1.8%
2.9%
3.0%
2.4%
2.3%
1.2%
-5.3%
4Q 13
2.4%
2.9%
2.7%
2.2%
2.0%
1.4%
2.9%
2.8%
3.3%
2.7%
2.3%
3.9%
-1.6%
1Q 14
1.8%
4.2%
2.1%
1.9%
0.7%
0.5%
1.9%
2.3%
3.4%
3.7%
2.1%
-3.7%
3.1%
1Q 12
3.1%
4.1%
3.4%
2.7%
3.4%
2.8%
2.6%
3.2%
2.5%
8.1%
2.7%
0.2%
23.6%
2Q 12
3.8%
3.7%
4.2%
3.7%
3.8%
3.2%
2.7%
3.2%
6.0%
10.6%
3.4%
10.1%
15.8%
3Q 12
4.0%
3.9%
5.2%
4.0%
2.1%
3.9%
2.8%
3.4%
5.3%
14.3%
3.8%
9.6%
4.9%
ANNUAL
4Q 12
3.2%
5.5%
3.9%
3.3%
1.3%
1.9%
1.3%
3.6%
5.2%
11.2%
3.3%
2.0%
9.3%
REVENUE
1Q 13
2.1%
0.9%
2.9%
2.2%
0.6%
1.4%
3.1%
2.1%
2.5%
2.7%
2.1%
4.5%
-4.4%
CHANGE
2Q 13
3.2%
2.4%
3.7%
3.7%
1.4%
3.4%
2.1%
3.8%
3.0%
3.4%
3.3%
5.0%
-2.7%
3Q 13
2.6%
2.2%
3.0%
2.3%
2.5%
1.3%
2.0%
3.9%
3.4%
2.5%
2.8%
1.3%
-2.7%
4Q 13
2.7%
6.0%
2.9%
2.5%
2.2%
1.1%
3.1%
4.4%
2.6%
4.0%
2.6%
6.2%
-2.7%
1Q 14
2.3%
8.1%
2.4%
2.4%
0.7%
0.8%
2.0%
3.6%
3.3%
2.3%
2.5%
-3.4%
7.2%
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY Existing
Sampled
Percent
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
1Q 12
596
1,852
1,287
3,542
0.3%
1.0%
1Q 12
189,894
115,776
61.0%
2Q 12
342
1,518
1,826
4,111
0.2%
0.8%
2Q 12
190,236
116,693
61.3%
3Q 12
692
2,028
1,386
4,214
0.4%
1.1%
3Q 12
190,928
118,441
62.0%
4Q 12
766
2,396
382
4,881
0.4%
1.3%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
191,694
116,931
61.0%
1Q 13
0
1,800
(325)
3,268
0.0%
0.9%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
191,694
117,992
61.6%
2Q 13
276
1,734
1,906
3,348
0.1%
0.9%
2Q 13
191,970
119,532
62.3%
3Q 13
350
1,392
269
2,231
0.2%
0.7%
3Q 13
192,320
121,556
63.2%
4Q 13
1,291
1,917
622
2,471
0.7%
1.0%
4Q 13
193,611
118,556
61.2%
1Q 14
86
2,003
(76)
2,721
0.0%
1.0%
1Q 14
193,697
117,507
60.7%
© 2014 MPF Research
CHANGE
TAMPA BAY | 12
SUBMARKETS
TAMPA BAY | 13
SUBMARKET OVERVIEW
1Q 2014
RANKINGS OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
Submarket 2
Rate
Peninsula
Submarket
Rate
96.5%
1
Central Tampa
$1,307
1
Central Tampa
95.8%
3
Town and Country/Westchase
$990
13
Clearwater
95.3%
8
New Tampa/East Pasco County
$944
11
North St. Petersburg
95.1%
2
Peninsula
$934
12
Largo/Seminole
95.0%
14
North Pinellas County
$920
QUARTERLY OCCUPANCY CHANGE Change
Submarket 9
ANNUAL OCCUPANCY CHANGE
Brandon/Southeast Hillsborough
1.1
County
Change
Submarket 12
Largo/Seminole
2.7
6
Univ ersity
2.1
2
Peninsula
0.7
1
Central Tampa
1.3
15
West Pasco County/Hernando County
0.6
15
West Pasco County/Hernando County
1.3
6
Univ ersity
0.5
11
North St. Petersburg
13
Clearwater
0.3
QUARTERLY RENT CHANGE Submarket
1
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE Change
Change
Submarket
3
Town and Country/Westchase
2.5%
14
North Pinellas County
6.6%
15
West Pasco County/Hernando County
2.2%
12
Largo/Seminole
4.8%
14
North Pinellas County
1.9%
10
South St. Petersburg
3.8%
13
Clearwater
1.8%
15
West Pasco County/Hernando County
3.5%
12
Largo/Seminole
1.3%
2
Peninsula
3.0%
QUARTERLY REVENUE CHANGE Submarket
ANNUAL REVENUE CHANGE Change
Change
Submarket
15
West Pasco County/Hernando County
2.8%
12
Largo/Seminole
7.5%
13
Clearwater
2.1%
14
North Pinellas County
6.4%
3
Town and Country/Westchase
1.5%
15
West Pasco County/Hernando County
4.8%
12
Largo/Seminole
1.4%
6
Univ ersity
4.5%
14
North Pinellas County
1.3%
2
Peninsula
3.9%
UNITS OFFERING CONCESSIONS
ANNUAL INVENTORY GROWTH
Submarket
Rate
14
North Pinellas County
0.0%
2
Peninsula
3.0%
3
Town and Country/Westchase
3.0%
9
Brandon/Southeast Hillsborough
2.0%
15
West Pasco County/Hernando County
7.3%
1
Central Tampa
8.4%
3
Town and Country/Westchase
2.0%
7
Temple Terrace
14.3%
6
Univ ersity
2.0%
11
North St. Petersburg
1.6%
Submarket
Change
County
Note: For metros with more than five submarkets, only the top five are shown.
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 14
SUBMARKET OVERVIEW
1Q 2014
RANKINGS QUARTERLY DEMAND Submarket 9
ANNUAL DEMAND Units
Brandon/Southeast Hillsborough County
181
County
Submarket
Units
6
Univ ersity
702
11
North St. Petersburg
427
6
Univ ersity
86
12
Largo/Seminole
358
2
Peninsula
53
2
Peninsula
351
15
West Pasco County/Hernando County
50
9
Brandon/Southeast Hillsborough
336
13
Clearwater
47
County
QUARTERLY SUPPLY
ANNUAL SUPPLY Units
Submarket 8
New Tampa/East Pasco County
46
10
South St. Petersburg
40
multiple submarkets
0
9
Brandon/Southeast Hillsborough County
6
Univ ersity
344 314
10
South St. Petersburg
261
2
Peninsula
246
multiple submarkets
240
County
FORECAST OCCUPANCY
FORECAST ANNUAL OCCUPANCY CHANGE Rate
Submarket
Units
Submarket
Submarket
Change
2
Peninsula
96.1%
5
Carrollwood/Citrus Park
0.5
13
Clearwater
95.6%
14
North Pinellas County
0.5
4
Egypt Lake/Lowry Park
95.0%
8
New Tampa/East Pasco County
0.4
14
North Pinellas County
95.0%
multiple submarkets
0.3
5
Carrollwood/Citrus Park
94.9%
UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION Submarket 1
TOTAL FUTURE INVENTORY GROWTH Units
Submarket 1
3,122
11
North St. Petersburg
1,038
11
North St. Petersburg
6.8%
10
South St. Petersburg
635
12
Largo/Seminole
4.2%
12
Largo/Seminole
483
10
South St. Petersburg
3.2%
13
Clearwater
342
13
Clearwater
2.0%
UNITS COMPLETING IN THE NEXT YEAR Submarket 1
Central Tampa
Central Tampa
Change
Central Tampa
27.3%
INVENTORY GROWTH IN THE NEXT YEAR
Units 2,340
Submarket 1
Central Tampa
Change 20.4%
10
South St. Petersburg
635
12
Largo/Seminole
4.2%
11
North St. Petersburg
628
11
North St. Petersburg
4.1%
12
Largo/Seminole
483
10
South St. Petersburg
3.2%
3
Town and Country/Westchase
239
3
Town and Country/Westchase
1.9%
Note: For metros with more than five submarkets, only the top five are shown.
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 15
SUBMARKET OVERVIEW Submarket Number (Key Below)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Quarterly Supply
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
46
0
40
86
Annual Supply
0
246
240
0
0
314
0
214
344
261
2,003
10
4
5
10
10
2
10
7
1
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0%
3.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1.4%
2.0%
1.3%
1.0%
Rank Annual Removals Annual Inventory Change
10
1
2
10
10
2
10
6
2
7
160
246
780
0
0
520
0
958
344
261
Two-Year Inventory Change
1.4%
3.0%
6.7%
0.0%
0.0%
3.3%
0.0%
6.7%
2.0%
1.3%
2.0%
Five-Year Supply
1,982
246
1,098
96
296
970
612
1,827
1,523
1,090
11,309
1
11
4
14
10
6
8
2
3
5
20.9%
3.0%
6.1%
0.9%
4.6%
6.4%
4.9%
13.6%
9.6%
5.9%
6.0%
Five-Year Avg Annual Change
4.1%
0.3%
1.0%
0.2%
0.9%
1.5%
1.0%
2.7%
1.7%
1.0%
1.1%
Existing Units
11,450
8,341
12,365
10,572
6,740
16,213
13,015
15,221
17,396
19,655
193,697
All Active Construction
3,122
0
239
0
0
0
0
264
0
635
6,123
1
8
7
8
8
8
8
6
8
3
Rank Quarterly Demand
-16
53
-121
-29
-73
86
-58
-51
181
-142
-76
Annual Demand
162
351
207
-28
-3
702
104
322
336
-585
2,721
Two-Year Demand
305
443
768
5
-86
1,093
377
918
651
99
5,990
Five-Year Demand
2,188
680
1,167
555
317
1,717
985
2,297
1,866
634
16,279
Current Rate
95.8%
96.5%
93.9%
94.7%
94.4%
93.4%
93.1%
94.0%
93.9%
89.4%
94.2%
2
1
10
6
8
12
14
9
10
15
Quarterly Change
-0.1
0.7
-1.0
-0.3
-1.1
0.5
-0.5
-0.6
1.1
-0.9
0.0
Annual Change
1.3
0.9
-0.4
-0.3
0.0
2.1
0.7
0.5
-0.1
-4.6
0.5
3
6
14
13
10
2
7
8
11
15
Two-Year Change
1.1
2.0
-0.1
0.0
-1.3
4.1
2.5
-0.1
2.0
-0.8
Five-Year Change
1.4
4.4
2.6
4.3
1.0
5.9
3.3
3.3
1.8
-1.6
3.3
92.5%
94.5%
93.7%
94.0%
94.5%
89.7%
90.3%
93.6%
93.3%
90.7%
92.7%
Rank
OCCUPANCY
Rank
Five-Year Average Rate
10
2
5
4
2
15
14
6
9
13
$934
$990
$735
$864
$867
$816
$944
$899
$844
1
4
2
14
9
8
12
3
6
10
$1.340
$1.163
$1.036
$0.871
$0.997
$0.948
$0.850
$0.880
$0.904
$0.987
1
2
3
13
5
8
14
12
11
6
Quarterly Same-Store Change
1.2%
-1.2%
2.5%
-1.6%
-0.4%
-1.6%
-0.5%
-1.8%
-0.4%
-0.1%
0.1%
Annual Same-Store Change
-0.7%
3.0%
2.4%
2.3%
2.1%
2.4%
1.9%
-0.2%
0.1%
3.8%
1.8%
15
5
6
8
9
6
10
14
13
3
Rank Rent Per Square Foot Rank
Rank
$0.953
Two-Year Same-Store Change
2.2%
3.4%
4.9%
2.7%
6.5%
2.2%
2.3%
-0.6%
2.4%
3.9%
3.1%
7.3%
12.5%
11.3%
4.1%
9.7%
6.6%
1.7%
2.6%
4.1%
4.1%
5.9%
5
2
3
9
4
6
15
14
9
9
0.5%
2.4%
1.7%
0.5%
1.5%
0.8%
0.2%
0.6%
1.1%
0.3%
11
1
2
11
3
7
14
9
6
13
Five-Year Average Annual Change Rank
0.9%
Units with Concessions
8.4%
20.3%
3.0%
25.0%
22.7%
24.0%
14.3%
16.5%
27.5%
15.5%
Average Concession
8.3%
2.9%
8.3%
8.1%
5.0%
6.7%
12.6%
6.3%
4.3%
7.4%
6.2%
Quarterly Change
1.1%
-0.5%
1.5%
-1.9%
-1.5%
-1.1%
-1.0%
-2.4%
0.7%
-1.0%
0.1%
Annual Change
0.6%
3.9%
2.0%
2.0%
2.1%
4.5%
2.6%
0.3%
0.0%
-0.8%
2.3%
12
5
10
10
8
4
6
13
14
15
Rank
16.6%
Two-Year Change
3.3%
5.4%
4.8%
2.7%
5.2%
6.3%
4.8%
-0.7%
4.4%
3.1%
4.4%
Five-Year Change
8.7%
16.9%
13.9%
8.4%
10.7%
12.5%
5.0%
5.9%
5.9%
2.5%
9.2%
8
1
3
10
5
4
14
13
12
15
Five-Year Average Annual Change
0.9%
3.4%
2.2%
1.2%
2.0%
1.7%
0.6%
1.1%
1.7%
0.3%
1.5%
Supply
2,340
0
239
0
0
0
0
0
0
635
4,325
Rank
Rank Inventory Growth Rate Rank ONE-YEAR FORECAST
$893
Five-Year Same-Store Change Rank
REVENUE
1.3
$1,307
Rank Monthly Rent
RENT
3,803
Five-Year Inventory Change
Rank
DEMAND
METRO
Two-Year Supply
Rank SUPPLY
1Q 2014
1
6
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
2
20.4%
0.0%
1.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.2%
1
6
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
4
2.2%
Demand
1,592
-32
255
31
35
16
26
51
59
566
3,478
Occupancy Rate
91.1%
96.1%
94.2%
95.0%
94.9%
93.5%
93.3%
94.4%
94.2%
89.4%
93.9%
Rank Occupancy Change Rank
Submarket Key
© 2014 MPF Research
14
1
9
3
5
12
13
6
8
15
-4.7
-0.4
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.0
15
12
4
4
1
10
9
3
4
11
1. Central Tampa 2. P eninsula 3. To wn and Co untry/Westchase 4. Egypt Lake/Lo wry P ark 5. Carro llwo o d/Citrus P ark
-0.3
6. University 7. Temple Terrace 8. New Tampa/East P asco Co unty 9. B rando n/So utheast Hillsbo ro ugh Co unty 10. So uth St. P etersburg
TAMPA BAY | 16
SUBMARKET OVERVIEW
1Q 2014 Submarket Number (Key Below) Quarterly Supply Annual Supply Rank Annual Removals Annual Inventory Change
0
108
36
0
2,003
5
10
8
9
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
1.6%
0.0%
0.6%
0.4%
0.0%
1.0%
9
10
36
150
Two-Year Inventory Change
1.6%
0.0%
0.6%
0.4%
1.7%
2.0%
Five-Year Supply
743
0
184
98
544
11,309
3,803
7
15
12
13
9
Five-Year Inventory Change
5.1%
0.0%
1.1%
1.1%
6.3%
6.0%
Five-Year Avg Annual Change
0.9%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
1.2%
1.1%
Existing Units
15,282
11,457
17,536
9,217
9,237
193,697
All Active Construction
1,038
483
342
0
0
6,123
2
4
5
8
8
Quarterly Demand
33
21
47
-57
50
-76
Annual Demand
427
358
213
20
135
2,721
Two-Year Demand
529
259
275
-12
368
5,990
Five-Year Demand
1,270
524
1,103
173
803
16,279
Current Rate
95.1%
95.0%
95.3%
94.5%
93.4%
94.2%
4
5
3
7
12
Quarterly Change
0.2
0.1
0.3
-0.6
0.6
0.0
Annual Change
1.0
2.7
0.5
-0.2
1.3
0.5
5
1
8
12
3
Two-Year Change
1.7
1.8
0.8
-0.6
2.8
Five-Year Change
3.5
5.4
5.1
1.0
4.1
3.3
93.4%
92.2%
93.4%
94.6%
90.9%
92.7%
Rank
Rank Rent Per Square Foot Rank
7
11
7
1
12
$898
$802
$835
$920
$717
7
13
11
5
15
$0.999
$0.960
$0.922
$0.913
$0.797
4
7
9
10
15
1.3
$893 $0.953
Quarterly Same-Store Change
0.3%
1.3%
1.8%
1.9%
2.2%
0.1%
Annual Same-Store Change
1.1%
4.8%
1.9%
6.6%
3.5%
1.8%
12
2
10
1
4
Two-Year Same-Store Change
2.9%
8.1%
4.3%
6.0%
3.2%
3.1%
Five-Year Same-Store Change
6.5%
3.2%
5.2%
13.0%
3.0%
5.9%
7
12
8
1
13
1.2%
0.6%
0.7%
1.4%
0.1%
5
9
8
4
15
Rank
Rank Five-Year Average Annual Change Rank
0.9%
Units with Concessions
16.2%
15.1%
17.8%
0.0%
7.3%
Average Concession
5.8%
3.6%
5.2%
n.a.
8.0%
6.2%
Quarterly Change
0.5%
1.4%
2.1%
1.3%
2.8%
0.1%
Annual Change
2.1%
7.5%
2.4%
6.4%
4.8%
2.3%
8
1
7
2
3
Rank
16.6%
Two-Year Change
4.6%
9.9%
5.1%
5.4%
6.0%
4.4%
Five-Year Change
10.0%
8.6%
10.3%
14.0%
7.1%
9.2%
7
9
6
2
11
Five-Year Average Annual Change
1.8%
1.4%
1.6%
1.7%
0.8%
1.5%
Supply
628
483
0
0
0
4,325
Rank
Rank Inventory Growth Rate Rank Demand Occupancy Rate Rank Occupancy Change Rank
© 2014 MPF Research
86
240
8
Rank
Submarket Key
METRO
108
Monthly Rent
ONE-YEAR FORECAST
0
0
Five-Year Average Rate
REVENUE
15
0
10
Rank
RENT
14
0
5
Rank
OCCUPANCY
13
0
240
Rank
DEMAND
12
0
Two-Year Supply
Rank SUPPLY
11
3
4
6
6
6
4.1%
4.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3
2
6
6
6
2.2%
376
367
61
41
34
3,478
93.7%
94.3%
95.6%
95.0%
93.7%
93.9%
10
7
2
4
11
-1.4
-0.7
0.3
0.5
0.3
14
13
4
1
4
-0.3
11. No rth St. P etersburg 12. Largo /Semino le 13. Clearwater 14. No rth P inellas Co unty 15. West P asco Co unty/Hernando Co unty
TAMPA BAY | 17
1 CENTRAL TAMPA
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
All Other Submarkets
Quarterly
1.0k
SUBMARKET 11,450 5,559 48.6%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
0 0 0.0% 418 1,066 0 ‐16 162
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual
0.5k 0.0k -0.5k
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q 12
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
3Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
2Q 12
95.8% ‐0.1 1.3 97.2% 81.7% 92.5%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$1,307 $1.340 1.2% ‐0.7% 10.6% ‐16.6% 0.5%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
-1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 99%
Submarket
Metro
97% 95% 93%
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1.1% 0.6% 18.7% ‐24.1% 0.9%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
© 2014 MPF Research
1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 15%
Submarket
Metro
10% 5% 0%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
91%
2,340 1,592 91.1% ‐4.7
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
-5% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 18
1 CENTRAL TAMPA
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties completed during the last four quarters.
Sub# 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Properties Under Construction Modera Westshore 4504 W Spruce St, Tampa, FL 33607 Trio at ENCORE! (The) 1101 Ray Charles Blv d, Tampa, FL 33602 NoHo Flats 401 N Rome Av e, Tampa, FL 33606 Pierhouse at Channelside 1226 E Cumberland Av e, Tampa, FL 33602 Post SoHo Square 720 S Howard Av e, Tampa, FL 33606 Crescent Bayshore 319 Bayshore Blv d, Tampa, FL 33606 Madison Heights E Fortune St & N Marion St, Tampa, FL 33602 Adagio at Westshore Palms 4214 W Gray St, Tampa, FL 33609 Varela W Spruce St & N Lois Av e, Tampa, FL 33607 Reed at ENCORE! (The) 1240 Ray Charles Blv d, Tampa, FL 33602 Broadstone Hyde Park S Rome Av e & W Clev eland St, Tampa, FL 33606 Tempo at ENCORE! (The) 1102 Ray Charles Blv d, Tampa, FL 33602 SkyHouse Channelside Washington St & Whiting St, Tampa, FL 33602
Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC
Conv entional
300
6
09/12 04/14
Tampa Housing Authority
Affordable
141
6
12/12 05/14
Pollack Shores Real Estate Group
Conv entional
311
4
12/12 06/14
The Related Companies
Conv entional
356
4
06/12 06/14
Post Properties Inc
Conv entional
231
4
03/13 07/14
Crescent Communities
Conv entional
367
8
11/12 08/14
American Realty Dev elopment Inc
Senior
80
7
08/13 08/14
Alan Dev elopment
Conv entional
46
3
09/13 09/14
Crosland LLC
Conv entional
350
5
05/13 11/14
Tampa Housing Authority
Senior
158
7
12/12 01/15
Alliance Residential Company
Conv entional
259
5
11/13 04/15
Tampa Housing Authority
Affordable
203
7
02/14 06/15
Conv entional
320
23
02/14 08/15
Nov are Group/Baston-Cook Dev elopment Company
Total Units: 3,122
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 33602, 33605, 33606, 33607, 33609
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 19
1 CENTRAL TAMPA
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
94.7%
90.7%
95.6%
94.5%
92.3%
92.7%
97.0%
98.2%
n.a.
97.3%
96.7%
92.0%
95.1%
2Q 12
96.1%
93.0%
96.5%
95.9%
95.2%
96.1%
96.9%
96.2%
n.a.
93.4%
95.9%
95.8%
98.2%
3Q 12
97.2%
90.7%
97.1%
97.3%
97.9%
96.9%
97.5%
97.3%
n.a.
98.9%
97.7%
97.1%
95.1%
4Q 12
95.8%
90.7%
95.4%
96.0%
96.4%
94.8%
97.3%
96.2%
n.a.
97.0%
97.1%
94.8%
92.9%
1Q 13
94.5%
90.7%
94.7%
93.9%
96.8%
92.7%
96.9%
97.9%
n.a.
95.6%
96.8%
95.6%
81.2%
2Q 13
96.3%
95.2%
96.3%
96.0%
98.1%
95.2%
97.1% 100.0%
94.7%
98.2%
97.6%
97.5%
86.9%
3Q 13
96.4%
95.3%
96.7%
96.1%
96.2%
96.0%
96.8%
97.3%
n.a.
97.0%
96.9%
96.3%
94.8%
4Q 13
95.9%
94.1%
96.0%
95.7%
96.8%
95.1%
96.8%
95.0%
n.a.
99.5%
97.1%
95.4%
92.8%
1Q 14
95.8%
94.0%
95.8%
95.7%
95.9%
95.9%
96.2%
96.2%
95.6%
92.2%
95.8%
95.5%
96.4%
1Q 12
$1,247
$897
$1,034
$1,409
$1,542
$1,451
$1,179
$684
n.a.
$720
$961
$1,471
$1,775
2Q 12
$1,301
$897
$1,111
$1,433
$1,602
$1,417
$1,365
$751
n.a.
$786
$1,131
$1,439
$1,644
3Q 12
$1,357
$929
$1,146
$1,495
$1,746
$1,536
$1,266
$772
n.a.
$731
$1,093
$1,523
$1,961
4Q 12
$1,328
$840
$1,110
$1,488
$1,672
$1,482
$1,274
$787
n.a.
$779
$1,109
$1,444
$1,989
1Q 13
$1,296
$913
$1,120
$1,428
$1,596
$1,452
$1,312
$744
n.a.
$689
$1,086
$1,488
$1,587
2Q 13
$1,243
$805
$1,072
$1,375
$1,565
$1,394
$1,273
$763
$788
$715
$1,055
$1,461
$1,400
3Q 13
$1,295
$958
$1,124
$1,398
$1,650
$1,439
$1,304
$721
n.a.
$709
$1,086
$1,496
$1,421
4Q 13
$1,303
$921
$1,092
$1,461
$1,652
$1,403
$1,326
$806
n.a.
$837
$1,139
$1,426
$1,515
1Q 14
$1,307
$845
$1,133
$1,459
$1,521
$1,397
$1,408
$761
$774
$712
$1,151
$1,401
$1,607
1Q 12
$1.251
$1.493
$1.364
$1.207
$1.119
$1.363
$1.146 $0.944
n.a.
$0.969
$1.049
$1.314
$1.884
2Q 12
$1.318
$1.494
$1.481
$1.249
$1.168
$1.365
$1.344 $1.036
n.a.
$1.012
$1.213
$1.351
$1.746
3Q 12
$1.367
$1.546
$1.525
$1.292
$1.253
$1.476
$1.246 $1.066
n.a.
$0.983
$1.170
$1.430
$2.082
4Q 12
$1.344
$1.398
$1.477
$1.293
$1.197
$1.437
$1.254 $1.087
n.a.
$1.025
$1.181
$1.369
$2.112
1Q 13
$1.359
$1.519
$1.494
$1.302
$1.194
$1.484
$1.292 $1.027
n.a.
$0.887
$1.165
$1.498
$1.728
2Q 13
$1.314
$1.455
$1.438
$1.256
$1.171
$1.425
$1.253 $1.053 $1.128
$0.937
$1.148
$1.471
$1.524
3Q 13
$1.326
$1.595
$1.503
$1.235
$1.208
$1.414
$1.284 $0.995
n.a.
$0.929
$1.170
$1.431
$1.547
4Q 13
$1.334
$1.604
$1.463
$1.279
$1.188
$1.379
$1.305 $1.112
n.a.
$1.148
$1.227
$1.364
$1.649
1Q 14
$1.340
$1.536
$1.515
$1.276
$1.111
$1.373
$1.386 $1.051 $1.108
$0.975
$1.245
$1.340
$1.748
1Q 12
10.6%
-7.7%
13.8%
9.2%
8.5%
14.2%
6.7%
-8.3%
n.a.
5.8%
3.5%
10.9%
30.0%
2Q 12
5.6%
10.7%
9.0%
4.0%
1.3%
3.3%
9.6%
0.7%
n.a.
21.5%
8.0%
3.4%
5.3%
3Q 12
3.3%
-1.1%
7.1%
1.6%
0.2%
3.2%
2.7%
9.0%
n.a.
6.6%
2.9%
1.7%
9.9%
4Q 12
1.8%
-1.8%
3.0%
2.0%
-2.7%
0.8%
3.2%
5.0%
n.a.
6.5%
3.1%
-1.3%
9.1%
1Q 13
2.9%
1.8%
5.6%
2.3%
-4.2%
-0.3%
7.0%
8.7%
n.a.
5.3%
6.3%
-5.3%
7.4%
2Q 13
-1.2%
4.8%
-1.1%
-1.4%
-0.8%
3.0%
-6.7%
1.6%
n.a.
-8.2%
-5.2%
3.5%
2.0%
3Q 13
-1.1%
3.1%
0.5%
-2.6%
0.2%
-2.9%
3.0%
-6.6%
n.a.
6.5%
2.2%
-0.6%
-13.0%
4Q 13
1.4%
14.4%
1.7%
1.4%
-0.3%
-0.7%
4.1%
2.3%
n.a.
11.3%
4.0%
1.8%
-8.0%
1Q 14
-0.7%
3.7%
1.6%
-0.9%
-7.9%
-4.6%
7.3%
2.4%
n.a.
2.5%
5.4%
-7.0%
1.2%
1Q 12
12.1%
-4.2%
15.7%
11.0%
7.2%
13.3%
7.2%
-0.3%
n.a.
26.5%
6.5%
7.1%
47.0%
2Q 12
8.4%
8.8%
12.1%
6.9%
2.0%
6.2%
10.8%
0.7%
n.a.
36.3%
10.0%
3.1%
25.4%
3Q 12
7.2%
-1.4%
9.9%
6.3%
6.0%
7.0%
3.7%
12.5%
n.a.
26.5%
7.1%
4.8%
15.6%
ANNUAL
4Q 12
4.4%
-2.6%
4.0%
5.2%
4.6%
2.6%
4.5%
6.2%
n.a.
18.6%
6.0%
1.2%
10.8%
REVENUE
1Q 13
2.7%
1.8%
4.7%
1.7%
0.3%
-0.3%
6.9%
8.4%
n.a.
3.6%
6.4%
-1.7%
-6.5%
CHANGE
2Q 13
-1.0%
7.0%
-1.3%
-1.3%
2.1%
2.1%
-6.5%
5.4%
n.a.
-3.4%
-3.5%
5.2%
-9.3%
3Q 13
-1.9%
7.7%
0.1%
-3.8%
-1.5%
-3.8%
2.3%
-6.6%
n.a.
4.6%
1.4%
-1.4%
-13.3%
4Q 13
1.5%
17.8%
2.3%
1.1%
0.1%
-0.4%
3.6%
1.1%
n.a.
13.8%
4.0%
2.4%
-8.1%
1Q 14
0.6%
7.0%
2.7%
0.9%
-8.8%
-1.4%
6.6%
0.7%
n.a.
-0.9%
4.4%
-7.1%
16.4%
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY Existing
Sampled
Percent
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
1Q 12
0
120
147
262
0.0%
1.1%
1Q 12
11,290
4,022
35.6%
2Q 12
0
120
138
324
0.0%
1.1%
2Q 12
11,290
5,174
45.8%
3Q 12
0
120
124
482
0.0%
1.1%
3Q 12
11,290
5,322
47.1%
4Q 12
160
160
(11)
388
1.4%
1.4%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
11,450
5,037
44.0%
1Q 13
0
160
(125)
120
0.0%
1.4%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
11,450
5,161
45.1%
2Q 13
0
160
232
198
0.0%
1.4%
2Q 13
11,450
5,311
46.4%
3Q 13
0
160
10
69
0.0%
1.4%
3Q 13
11,450
5,619
49.1%
4Q 13
0
0
(47)
19
0.0%
0.0%
4Q 13
11,450
5,526
48.3%
1Q 14
0
0
(16)
162
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 14
11,450
5,559
48.6%
© 2014 MPF Research
CHANGE
TAMPA BAY | 20
2 PENINSULA
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
All Other Submarkets
Quarterly
1.0k
SUBMARKET 8,341 4,210 50.5%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
0 246 3.0% 25 246 0 53 351
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual
0.5k 0.0k -0.5k
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q 12
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
3Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
2Q 12
96.5% 0.7 0.9 96.8% 90.7% 94.5%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$934 $1.163 ‐1.2% 3.0% 10.5% ‐3.3% 2.4%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
-1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 98%
Submarket
Metro
96% 94% 92%
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
‐0.5% 3.9% 13.8% ‐3.4% 3.4%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
0 ‐32 96.1% ‐0.4
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
© 2014 MPF Research
90% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 6%
Submarket
Metro
5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 21
2 PENINSULA
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub# 2
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters Jefferson Westshore 6608 S West Shore Blv d, Tampa, FL 33616
Developer Jefferson Apartment Group
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish Conv entional
246
3
11/12 12/13 Total Units: 246
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 33611, 33616, 33621, 33629
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 22
2 PENINSULA
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
94.5%
94.8%
93.4%
95.0%
97.7%
97.5%
96.0%
95.4%
90.5%
98.3%
94.3%
97.2%
n.a.
2Q 12
95.2%
92.9%
94.6%
95.9%
97.7%
98.1%
95.3%
95.8%
92.3%
97.4%
95.0%
98.8%
n.a.
3Q 12
95.6%
96.1%
95.5%
95.6%
96.3%
97.6%
92.4%
95.5%
94.9%
97.4%
95.4%
100.0%
n.a.
4Q 12
96.0%
96.4%
96.2%
95.7%
96.5%
96.3%
96.0%
95.5%
96.7%
97.4%
96.3%
92.4%
n.a.
1Q 13
95.6%
96.8%
95.6%
95.1%
96.8%
97.0%
92.4%
94.9%
96.1%
98.3%
95.5%
96.0%
n.a.
2Q 13
96.8%
97.1%
97.1%
96.7%
95.7%
95.1%
100.0% 96.9%
97.0%
98.3%
97.1%
91.2%
n.a.
3Q 13
96.6%
97.7%
96.5%
96.5%
97.0%
96.4%
98.6%
96.7%
96.6%
90.1%
96.9%
92.4%
n.a.
4Q 13
95.8%
95.5%
95.8%
96.1%
95.1%
95.5%
95.7%
96.1%
95.3%
99.1%
96.1%
91.2%
n.a.
1Q 14
96.5%
95.5%
97.2%
96.4%
94.7%
94.9%
96.4%
97.4%
96.2%
97.8%
96.7%
92.4%
n.a.
1Q 12
$899
$697
$833
$947
$1,269
$1,158
$1,183
$797
$841
$883
$834
$1,894
n.a.
2Q 12
$903
$641
$831
$958
$1,334
$1,243
$1,106
$815
$795
$874
$822
$2,136
n.a.
3Q 12
$916
$695
$838
$964
$1,239
$1,167
$1,153
$824
$837
$870
$845
$2,136
n.a.
4Q 12
$934
$728
$851
$971
$1,303
$1,197
$1,164
$852
$805
$870
$860
$2,135
n.a.
1Q 13
$906
$667
$822
$960
$1,247
$1,165
$1,123
$831
$798
$878
$836
$2,129
n.a.
2Q 13
$932
$703
$853
$986
$1,242
$1,160
$1,194
$859
$833
$925
$864
$2,137
n.a.
3Q 13
$921
$674
$850
$971
$1,350
$1,247
$1,166
$838
$832
$807
$847
$2,138
n.a.
4Q 13
$949
$707
$867
$1,009
$1,367
$1,258
$1,262
$869
$845
$891
$874
$2,181
n.a.
1Q 14
$934
$705
$853
$986
$1,252
$1,145
$1,194
$850
$834
$1,120
$864
$2,052
n.a.
1Q 12
$1.141
$1.479
$1.258
$1.044
$1.033
$1.142
$1.257 $1.049 $1.248
$1.284
$1.087
$1.716
n.a.
2Q 12
$1.145
$1.362
$1.255
$1.055
$1.085
$1.225
$1.175 $1.073 $1.180
$1.269
$1.071
$1.935
n.a.
3Q 12
$1.141
$1.476
$1.269
$1.057
$1.015
$1.147
$1.224 $1.069 $1.241
$1.265
$1.076
$1.935
n.a.
4Q 12
$1.163
$1.546
$1.304
$1.065
$1.067
$1.177
$1.236 $1.105 $1.253
$1.264
$1.097
$1.935
n.a.
1Q 13
$1.129
$1.415
$1.248
$1.052
$1.021
$1.145
$1.192 $1.078 $1.184
$1.276
$1.065
$1.929
n.a.
2Q 13
$1.162
$1.492
$1.294
$1.081
$1.017
$1.140
$1.268 $1.114 $1.236
$1.345
$1.100
$1.937
n.a.
3Q 13
$1.163
$1.430
$1.291
$1.063
$1.098
$1.230
$1.239 $1.087 $1.235
$1.273
$1.096
$1.937
n.a.
4Q 13
$1.198
$1.500
$1.317
$1.106
$1.112
$1.240
$1.340 $1.128 $1.254
$1.295
$1.132
$1.976
n.a.
1Q 14
$1.163
$1.496
$1.285
$1.085
$1.026
$1.125
$1.268 $1.119 $1.238
$1.450
$1.101
$1.859
n.a.
1Q 12
3.1%
7.9%
5.5%
1.6%
-2.3%
-3.6%
7.5%
3.2%
6.8%
15.7%
5.3%
-9.2%
n.a.
2Q 12
2.1%
-2.8%
7.2%
0.3%
-5.9%
0.1%
1.9%
3.5%
1.5%
7.8%
2.5%
0.2%
n.a.
3Q 12
4.5%
8.0%
6.7%
3.9%
-1.4%
3.1%
8.2%
0.9%
9.9%
11.4%
4.8%
2.9%
n.a.
4Q 12
3.2%
13.6%
2.9%
2.1%
3.5%
3.0%
7.2%
6.5%
-3.7%
2.7%
3.5%
1.7%
n.a.
1Q 13
0.4%
-4.4%
-0.8%
1.1%
5.4%
7.4%
-5.2%
1.7%
-5.1%
-0.6%
-1.4%
12.4%
n.a.
2Q 13
3.2%
9.6%
3.6%
3.0%
-0.2%
-0.5%
8.0%
3.3%
4.8%
5.9%
3.8%
0.1%
n.a.
3Q 13
1.0%
-3.1%
1.5%
0.9%
1.8%
0.1%
1.2%
1.8%
-0.5%
15.2%
1.1%
0.1%
n.a.
4Q 13
3.3%
-3.0%
4.5%
4.5%
-3.5%
-2.2%
8.4%
2.4%
9.8%
2.4%
3.5%
2.2%
n.a.
1Q 14
3.0%
5.8%
3.0%
3.4%
0.5%
-1.8%
6.4%
4.9%
4.5%
2.4%
4.1%
-3.6%
n.a.
1Q 12
3.7%
12.1%
6.1%
1.2%
0.5%
-0.4%
7.5%
2.2%
7.9%
14.0%
5.5%
-3.2%
n.a.
2Q 12
1.5%
-3.7%
6.6%
0.0%
-6.6%
0.3%
-1.0%
3.4%
0.0%
12.9%
1.9%
0.2%
n.a.
3Q 12
4.1%
8.6%
6.5%
3.3%
-1.9%
4.2%
4.2%
-0.2%
10.2%
13.1%
4.0%
10.5%
n.a. n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 12
4.1%
17.8%
4.5%
1.8%
4.0%
2.6%
6.1%
5.7%
1.4%
2.9%
4.8%
-3.1%
REVENUE
1Q 13
1.5%
-2.4%
1.4%
1.2%
4.5%
6.9%
-8.8%
1.2%
0.5%
-0.6%
-0.2%
11.2%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 13
4.8%
13.8%
6.1%
3.8%
-2.2%
-3.5%
12.7%
4.4%
9.5%
6.8%
5.9%
-7.5%
n.a.
3Q 13
2.0%
-1.5%
2.5%
1.8%
2.5%
-1.1%
7.4%
3.0%
1.2%
7.9%
2.6%
-7.5%
n.a.
4Q 13
3.1%
-3.9%
4.1%
4.9%
-4.9%
-3.0%
8.1%
3.0%
8.4%
4.1%
3.3%
1.0%
n.a.
1Q 14
3.9%
4.5%
4.6%
4.7%
-1.6%
-3.9%
10.4%
7.4%
4.6%
1.9%
5.3%
-7.2%
n.a.
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY Existing
Sampled
Percent
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
(63)
41
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 12
8,095
4,065
50.2%
53
(60)
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 12
8,095
4,065
50.2%
0
35
(31)
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 12
8,095
4,557
56.3%
0
0
31
64
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
8,095
4,333
53.5%
1Q 13
0
0
(33)
86
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
8,095
4,625
57.1%
2Q 13
0
0
111
143
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
8,095
4,625
57.1%
3Q 13
0
0
(15)
87
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
8,095
4,363
53.9%
4Q 13
246
246
208
266
3.0%
3.0%
4Q 13
8,341
4,409
52.9%
1Q 14
0
246
53
351
0.0%
3.0%
1Q 14
8,341
4,210
50.5%
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
1Q 12
0
0
2Q 12
0
0
3Q 12
0
4Q 12
© 2014 MPF Research
CHANGE
TAMPA BAY | 23
3 TOWN AND COUNTRY/WESTCHASE
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET 12,365 10,825 87.5%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
0 240 2.0% 196 540 0 ‐121 207
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
93.9% ‐1.0 ‐0.4 95.5% 91.4% 93.7%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$990 $1.036 2.5% 2.4% 6.4% ‐4.8% 1.7%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
1.5% 2.0% 9.0% ‐5.3% 2.2%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
239 255 94.2% 0.3
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual
0.5k 0.0k
-1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 97%
Submarket
Metro
96% 95% 94% 93% 92%
REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1Q 13
-0.5k
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q 12
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q 12
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
2Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2014 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
91% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 6%
Submarket
Metro
5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 24
3 TOWN AND COUNTRY/WESTCHASE
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub# 3
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters Sedona (The) 12802 Saddle Club Circle, Tampa, FL 33635
Developer The Richman Group of Companies
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish Conv entional
240
3
09/12 12/13 Total Units: 240
Sub# 3
Properties Under Construction Altis at Highland Park Race Track Rd, Tampa, FL 33626
Developer The Altman Companies
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish Conv entional
239
3
05/13 09/14 Total Units: 239
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 33615, 33626, 33634, 33635
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 25
3 TOWN AND COUNTRY/WESTCHASE
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
94.0%
96.3%
93.5%
94.3%
94.7%
95.9%
93.4%
91.7%
93.3%
n.a.
94.0%
95.3%
n.a.
2Q 12
93.1%
94.1%
92.1%
93.7%
94.4%
93.3%
94.9%
91.5%
93.8%
n.a.
93.0%
95.3%
n.a.
3Q 12
94.0%
94.1%
93.6%
94.3%
94.8%
94.8%
95.9%
91.7%
94.8%
n.a.
94.0%
96.2%
n.a.
4Q 12
93.9%
94.9%
94.0%
93.8%
94.4%
94.0%
95.3%
93.2%
93.7%
n.a.
93.9%
93.4%
n.a.
1Q 13
94.3%
95.6%
94.2%
94.2%
94.8%
95.0%
94.9%
92.9%
94.0%
n.a.
94.2%
96.2%
n.a.
2Q 13
95.5%
93.4%
95.3%
95.7%
95.6%
96.3%
95.7%
94.9%
93.5%
n.a.
95.4%
100.0%
n.a.
3Q 13
94.4%
93.1%
94.5%
94.4%
94.5%
95.2%
95.2%
93.9%
91.1%
n.a.
94.5%
93.4%
n.a.
4Q 13
94.9%
93.8%
95.0%
94.9%
94.2%
95.2%
96.0%
94.6%
92.6%
n.a.
94.9%
93.4%
n.a.
1Q 14
93.9%
92.4%
94.1%
94.0%
92.8%
93.5%
95.6%
94.9%
90.8%
n.a.
94.3%
93.4%
84.9%
1Q 12
$905
$499
$745
$996
$1,212
$1,068
$829
$739
$785
n.a.
$900
$1,044
n.a.
2Q 12
$899
$502
$753
$972
$1,270
$1,074
$867
$726
$784
n.a.
$893
$1,085
n.a.
3Q 12
$926
$516
$768
$1,014
$1,265
$1,104
$935
$739
$776
n.a.
$920
$1,113
n.a.
4Q 12
$927
$544
$760
$1,017
$1,305
$1,118
$887
$728
$791
n.a.
$922
$1,099
n.a.
1Q 13
$948
$550
$788
$1,042
$1,279
$1,153
$922
$731
$753
n.a.
$944
$1,099
n.a.
2Q 13
$950
$544
$787
$1,039
$1,319
$1,138
$903
$757
$788
n.a.
$944
$1,124
n.a.
3Q 13
$951
$525
$791
$1,039
$1,314
$1,128
$937
$765
$757
n.a.
$946
$1,129
n.a.
4Q 13
$950
$507
$788
$1,041
$1,296
$1,128
$928
$757
$775
n.a.
$944
$1,124
n.a.
1Q 14
$990
$570
$821
$1,090
$1,334
$1,151
$990
$782
$806
n.a.
$981
$1,135
$1,129
1Q 12
$0.953
$1.240
$1.017
$0.922
$0.909
$1.004
$0.901 $0.911 $0.878
n.a.
$0.949
$1.050
n.a.
2Q 12
$0.953
$1.248
$1.031
$0.903
$0.954
$1.013
$0.909 $0.907 $0.877
n.a.
$0.948
$1.091
n.a.
3Q 12
$0.978
$1.230
$1.047
$0.942
$0.950
$1.041
$0.980 $0.913 $0.867
n.a.
$0.974
$1.119
n.a.
4Q 12
$0.981
$1.351
$1.039
$0.944
$0.983
$1.059
$0.930 $0.909 $0.885
n.a.
$0.977
$1.105
n.a.
1Q 13
$1.006
$1.366
$1.079
$0.968
$0.961
$1.093
$0.966 $0.913 $0.868
n.a.
$1.002
$1.105
n.a.
2Q 13
$1.007
$1.353
$1.078
$0.965
$0.991
$1.078
$0.946 $0.945 $0.909
n.a.
$1.003
$1.130
n.a.
3Q 13
$1.007
$1.288
$1.082
$0.965
$0.987
$1.069
$0.982 $0.953 $0.873
n.a.
$1.003
$1.136
n.a.
4Q 13
$1.004
$1.237
$1.076
$0.966
$0.974
$1.069
$0.972 $0.940 $0.893
n.a.
$1.000
$1.131
n.a.
1Q 14
$1.036
$1.358
$1.106
$1.001
$0.992
$1.082
$1.044 $0.967 $0.930
n.a.
$1.033
$1.142
$1.022
1Q 12
3.4%
-6.2%
2.2%
4.9%
1.3%
4.0%
-0.5%
4.6%
2.3%
n.a.
4.0%
-6.3%
n.a.
2Q 12
1.6%
-9.8%
2.4%
1.1%
2.5%
2.2%
-2.5%
3.7%
0.7%
n.a.
1.5%
3.8%
n.a.
3Q 12
3.5%
1.1%
4.7%
3.2%
2.0%
4.2%
4.1%
2.7%
2.2%
n.a.
3.0%
17.4%
n.a.
4Q 12
1.8%
7.7%
-0.2%
2.6%
3.7%
3.0%
-1.5%
1.3%
3.1%
n.a.
1.8%
1.0%
n.a.
1Q 13
2.5%
10.1%
2.7%
2.2%
2.5%
5.1%
0.5%
-0.6%
-2.5%
n.a.
2.4%
5.2%
n.a.
2Q 13
4.1%
8.4%
3.1%
5.2%
2.5%
4.5%
4.1%
4.2%
2.2%
n.a.
4.2%
3.6%
n.a.
3Q 13
1.8%
2.2%
2.6%
1.2%
2.2%
1.7%
0.2%
4.2%
-1.0%
n.a.
1.8%
1.5%
n.a.
4Q 13
2.0%
-7.8%
3.3%
1.9%
-1.0%
0.9%
4.6%
3.5%
-0.7%
n.a.
2.0%
2.3%
n.a.
1Q 14
2.4%
3.1%
2.5%
2.6%
0.8%
-0.9%
5.7%
6.4%
7.1%
n.a.
2.4%
3.3%
n.a.
1Q 12
4.7%
-2.3%
3.4%
6.2%
2.6%
6.4%
-1.3%
5.0%
4.3%
n.a.
5.4%
-6.3%
n.a.
2Q 12
0.6%
-11.3%
1.1%
0.3%
1.9%
0.3%
-2.0%
2.9%
-0.3%
n.a.
0.5%
2.9%
n.a.
3Q 12
3.5%
4.8%
5.0%
3.0%
1.5%
3.7%
6.6%
1.8%
2.8%
n.a.
2.9%
20.2%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 12
1.5%
10.7%
0.1%
1.8%
3.7%
1.0%
-0.3%
1.7%
4.9%
n.a.
1.5%
1.0%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 13
2.8%
9.4%
3.4%
2.1%
2.6%
4.2%
2.0%
0.6%
-1.8%
n.a.
2.6%
6.1%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 13
6.5%
7.7%
6.3%
7.2%
3.7%
7.5%
4.9%
7.6%
1.9%
n.a.
6.6%
8.3%
n.a.
3Q 13
2.2%
1.2%
3.5%
1.3%
1.9%
2.1%
-0.5%
6.4%
-4.7%
n.a.
2.3%
-1.3%
n.a.
4Q 13
3.0%
-8.9%
4.3%
3.0%
-1.2%
2.1%
5.3%
4.9%
-1.8%
n.a.
3.0%
2.3%
n.a.
1Q 14
2.0%
-0.1%
2.4%
2.4%
-1.2%
-2.4%
6.4%
8.4%
3.9%
n.a.
2.5%
0.5%
n.a.
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY Period
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
Qtrly
DEMAND
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
INVENTORY CHANGE Qtrly
Ann
Period
1Q 12
0
0
(17)
141
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 12
11,585
8,970
77.4%
2Q 12
192
192
62
48
1.7%
1.7%
2Q 12
11,777
10,458
88.8%
3Q 12
0
192
113
157
0.0%
1.7%
4Q 12
348
540
301
421
3.0%
4.7%
SAMPLE/
1Q 13
0
540
45
513
0.0%
4.7%
EXISTING UNITS
2Q 13
0
348
167
683
0.0%
3.0%
3Q 12
11,777
10,361
88.0%
4Q 12
12,125
10,806
89.1%
1Q 13
12,125
10,604
87.5%
2Q 13
12,125
10,604
87.5%
3Q 13
0
348
(140)
403
0.0%
3.0%
3Q 13
12,125
10,571
87.2%
4Q 13
240
240
341
414
2.0%
2.0%
4Q 13
12,365
10,531
85.2%
1Q 14
0
240
(121)
207
0.0%
2.0%
1Q 14
12,365
10,825
87.5%
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 26
4 EGYPT LAKE/LOWRY PARK
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
All Other Submarkets
Quarterly
1.0k
SUBMARKET 10,572 7,738 73.2%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
0 0 0.0% 19 96 0 ‐29 ‐28
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual
0.5k 0.0k -0.5k
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q 12
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
3Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
2Q 12
94.7% ‐0.3 ‐0.3 96.2% 90.4% 94.0%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$735 $0.871 ‐1.6% 2.3% 4.4% ‐6.9% 0.5%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
-1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 98%
Submarket
Metro
96% 94% 92%
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
‐1.9% 2.0% 5.8% ‐6.3% 1.2%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
© 2014 MPF Research
1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 6%
Submarket
Metro
4% 2% 0%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
90%
0 31 95.0% 0.3
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
-2% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 27
4 EGYPT LAKE/LOWRY PARK
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties completed during the last four quarters.
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 33603, 33604, 33614
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 28
4 EGYPT LAKE/LOWRY PARK
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
94.7%
92.8%
94.6%
94.8%
94.9%
98.6%
97.1%
94.5%
94.7%
88.3%
94.5%
100.0%
n.a.
2Q 12
96.1%
95.1%
95.8%
96.3%
97.0%
99.8%
98.1%
95.2%
96.4%
96.1%
96.0%
100.0%
n.a.
3Q 12
95.9%
96.0%
96.0%
95.6%
96.8%
98.3%
99.1%
96.0%
95.4%
91.1%
95.8%
100.0%
n.a.
4Q 12
94.8%
94.3%
94.6%
94.8%
96.4%
100.0%
98.8%
94.1%
95.7%
85.5%
94.6%
100.0%
n.a.
1Q 13
95.0%
91.6%
94.8%
95.2%
96.8%
97.6%
96.9%
95.0%
94.6%
91.9%
94.9%
100.0%
n.a.
2Q 13
96.2%
96.5%
96.2%
96.0%
97.1%
99.3%
98.5%
96.3%
95.8%
91.9%
96.1%
100.0%
n.a.
3Q 13
95.5%
94.9%
95.8%
95.1%
96.2%
98.8%
97.6%
95.7%
94.9%
89.4%
95.4%
98.0%
n.a.
4Q 13
95.0%
95.4%
95.3%
94.7%
95.2%
98.1%
97.4%
95.6%
93.5%
91.4%
94.9%
98.0%
n.a.
1Q 14
94.7%
94.9%
94.5%
94.8%
95.6%
98.6%
100.0% 95.1%
93.0%
84.5%
94.6%
98.0%
n.a.
1Q 12
$715
$516
$624
$768
$1,016
$965
$682
$705
$702
$706
$704
$1,119
n.a.
2Q 12
$739
$526
$641
$794
$1,032
$962
$670
$726
$735
$756
$727
$1,119
n.a.
3Q 12
$726
$513
$640
$788
$942
$864
$678
$725
$715
$739
$719
$942
n.a.
4Q 12
$738
$513
$646
$805
$958
$919
$666
$726
$746
$762
$731
$948
n.a.
1Q 13
$727
$539
$635
$787
$957
$847
$667
$724
$723
$748
$721
$917
n.a.
2Q 13
$734
$550
$642
$802
$949
$843
$688
$740
$720
$737
$729
$917
n.a.
3Q 13
$745
$542
$652
$812
$970
$847
$688
$742
$746
$742
$740
$917
n.a.
4Q 13
$752
$548
$657
$820
$985
$873
$688
$743
$760
$747
$745
$961
n.a.
1Q 14
$735
$554
$649
$799
$953
$896
$686
$731
$729
$738
$729
$915
n.a.
1Q 12
$0.839
$1.138
$0.952
$0.777
$0.742
$0.864
$0.797 $0.904 $0.781
$0.668
$0.836
$0.901
n.a.
2Q 12
$0.856
$1.177
$0.969
$0.799
$0.753
$0.862
$0.783 $0.919 $0.812
$0.716
$0.854
$0.901
n.a.
3Q 12
$0.849
$1.147
$0.975
$0.797
$0.688
$0.774
$0.792 $0.930 $0.790
$0.699
$0.853
$0.759
n.a.
4Q 12
$0.860
$1.148
$0.984
$0.811
$0.700
$0.748
$0.778 $0.930 $0.820
$0.721
$0.865
$0.763
n.a.
1Q 13
$0.844
$1.186
$0.961
$0.794
$0.699
$0.759
$0.779 $0.916 $0.804
$0.708
$0.848
$0.738
n.a.
2Q 13
$0.859
$1.229
$0.978
$0.809
$0.693
$0.755
$0.804 $0.942 $0.813
$0.697
$0.865
$0.738
n.a.
3Q 13
$0.869
$1.212
$0.989
$0.819
$0.708
$0.758
$0.804 $0.939 $0.842
$0.702
$0.875
$0.738
n.a.
4Q 13
$0.876
$1.224
$0.996
$0.826
$0.708
$0.782
$0.804 $0.940 $0.849
$0.707
$0.881
$0.774
n.a.
1Q 14
$0.871
$1.252
$0.994
$0.818
$0.695
$0.729
$0.802 $0.938 $0.834
$0.627
$0.878
$0.737
n.a.
1Q 12
4.1%
7.7%
2.9%
3.2%
11.6%
18.1%
5.1%
2.8%
4.2%
-2.2%
3.1%
27.0%
n.a.
2Q 12
3.5%
2.0%
3.7%
2.4%
8.1%
14.3%
1.3%
3.3%
2.2%
3.9%
2.7%
22.3%
n.a.
3Q 12
3.0%
5.4%
4.3%
2.7%
-1.4%
-2.3%
-1.5%
4.3%
3.2%
-0.5%
3.3%
-5.5%
n.a.
4Q 12
4.4%
0.7%
5.5%
3.7%
4.0%
5.2%
-2.5%
4.4%
6.7%
-0.5%
4.3%
7.0%
n.a.
1Q 13
0.4%
1.6%
0.4%
1.9%
-5.8%
-12.2%
-2.3%
0.3%
2.9%
6.0%
1.3%
-18.1%
n.a.
2Q 13
-0.2%
4.1%
0.5%
1.0%
-8.0%
-12.3%
2.7%
2.4%
-1.5%
-2.6%
0.7%
-18.1%
n.a.
3Q 13
2.6%
6.3%
1.9%
2.9%
3.0%
-2.0%
1.4%
1.5%
5.5%
0.4%
2.8%
-2.7%
n.a.
4Q 13
2.2%
6.8%
1.6%
2.3%
2.2%
1.1%
3.3%
1.6%
3.8%
-2.0%
2.2%
1.4%
n.a.
1Q 14
2.3%
3.2%
3.1%
2.3%
-0.5%
-0.2%
2.9%
2.9%
3.2%
-12.1%
2.4%
-0.2%
n.a.
1Q 12
5.8%
9.5%
4.6%
4.8%
12.9%
20.5%
5.8%
4.8%
5.8%
-3.0%
4.7%
31.0%
n.a.
2Q 12
5.8%
4.9%
5.9%
4.8%
10.1%
16.0%
3.4%
5.4%
4.8%
6.7%
5.0%
24.3%
n.a.
3Q 12
4.5%
10.7%
6.0%
3.7%
-0.3%
-1.9%
0.9%
7.0%
3.0%
-1.6%
4.9%
-5.5%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 12
5.2%
3.5%
6.0%
4.8%
3.8%
7.1%
-1.1%
4.5%
8.9%
-3.3%
5.1%
7.0%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 13
0.7%
0.4%
0.6%
2.3%
-3.9%
-13.2%
-2.5%
0.8%
2.8%
9.6%
1.7%
-18.1%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 13
-0.1%
5.5%
0.9%
0.7%
-7.9%
-12.8%
3.1%
3.5%
-2.1%
-6.8%
0.8%
-18.1%
n.a.
3Q 13
2.2%
5.2%
1.7%
2.4%
2.4%
-1.5%
-0.1%
1.2%
5.0%
-1.3%
2.4%
-4.7%
n.a.
4Q 13
2.4%
7.9%
2.3%
2.2%
1.0%
-0.8%
1.9%
3.1%
1.6%
3.9%
2.5%
-0.6%
n.a.
1Q 14
2.0%
6.5%
2.8%
1.9%
-1.7%
0.8%
6.0%
3.0%
1.6%
-19.5%
2.1%
-2.2%
n.a.
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND Ann
CHANGE
Period
Qtrly
Ann
1Q 12
0
0
57
167
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 12
10,572
8,799
83.2%
2Q 12
0
0
136
188
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 12
10,572
8,347
79.0%
3Q 12
0
0
(21)
138
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 12
10,572
8,719
82.5%
4Q 12
0
0
(123)
71
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
10,572
8,477
80.2%
1Q 13
0
0
27
35
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
10,572
8,427
79.7%
2Q 13
0
0
140
11
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
10,572
8,631
81.6%
3Q 13
0
0
(87)
(45)
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
10,572
8,547
80.8%
4Q 13
0
0
(38)
26
0.0%
0.0%
4Q 13
10,572
8,024
75.9%
1Q 14
0
0
(29)
(28)
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 14
10,572
7,738
73.2%
© 2014 MPF Research
Qtrly
INVENTORY Qtrly
Ann
Period
TAMPA BAY | 29
5 CARROLLWOOD/CITRUS PARK
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET 6,740 5,469 81.1%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
0 0 0.0% 59 296 0 ‐73 ‐3
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
94.4% ‐1.1 0.0 96.2% 92.0% 94.5%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$864 $0.997 ‐0.4% 2.1% 6.0% ‐8.1% 1.5%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
‐1.5% 2.1% 6.2% ‐8.7% 2.0%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual
0.5k 0.0k
-1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 97%
Submarket
Metro
96% 95% 94% 93% 91% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 8%
Submarket
Metro
6% 4% 2%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
2Q 13
92%
REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1Q 13
-0.5k
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q 12
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q 12
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
2Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2014 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
0 35 94.9% 0.5
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
0% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 30
5 CARROLLWOOD/CITRUS PARK
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties completed during the last four quarters.
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 33548, 33556, 33558, 33618, 33624, 33625
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 31
5 CARROLLWOOD/CITRUS PARK
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
95.7%
90.6%
96.1%
95.1%
97.3%
97.5%
94.7%
95.2%
97.8%
n.a.
95.7%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
94.3%
95.3%
94.4%
94.0%
94.9%
95.0%
91.4%
94.9%
94.8%
n.a.
94.3%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
95.6%
95.3%
95.7%
95.0%
97.8%
96.9%
93.6%
95.8%
94.8%
n.a.
95.6%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
94.9%
93.8%
95.1%
94.5%
96.3%
94.5%
94.3%
94.9%
96.1%
n.a.
94.9%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
94.4%
92.2%
94.4%
94.1%
97.0%
95.7%
96.1%
94.0%
92.0%
n.a.
94.4%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
96.0%
92.2%
95.9%
95.8%
97.5%
97.3%
96.2%
95.2%
98.1%
n.a.
96.0%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
95.5%
95.3%
95.6%
95.3%
95.5%
96.6%
92.2%
95.8%
97.0%
n.a.
95.5%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
95.5%
95.3%
95.5%
95.2%
96.8%
95.5%
95.2%
95.7%
94.8%
n.a.
95.5%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
94.4%
92.2%
94.6%
94.1%
95.3%
95.1%
93.4%
94.6%
94.0%
n.a.
94.4%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
$782
$538
$685
$846
$1,048
$856
$859
$769
$588
n.a.
$782
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
$810
$542
$706
$879
$1,074
$914
$853
$788
$629
n.a.
$810
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
$839
$558
$726
$914
$1,113
$953
$911
$804
$639
n.a.
$839
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
$811
$570
$711
$880
$1,140
$930
$878
$795
$652
n.a.
$811
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
$844
$558
$736
$909
$1,238
$1,087
$880
$806
$639
n.a.
$844
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
$828
$592
$721
$907
$1,065
$853
$911
$815
$704
n.a.
$828
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
$861
$610
$741
$945
$1,131
$961
$923
$837
$655
n.a.
$861
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
$859
$612
$743
$933
$1,193
$983
$966
$826
$613
n.a.
$859
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
$864
$630
$746
$936
$1,241
$1,043
$948
$820
$659
n.a.
$864
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
$0.907
$1.196
$0.989
$0.859
$0.828
$0.839
$0.882 $0.935 $0.936
n.a.
$0.907
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
$0.927
$1.206
$1.011
$0.885
$0.829
$0.879
$0.877 $0.959 $1.001
n.a.
$0.927
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
$0.962
$1.241
$1.041
$0.923
$0.859
$0.916
$0.936 $0.987 $1.017
n.a.
$0.962
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
$0.955
$1.267
$1.039
$0.898
$0.891
$0.905
$0.902 $0.975 $1.038
n.a.
$0.955
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
$0.976
$1.239
$1.062
$0.916
$0.939
$1.032
$0.904 $0.981 $1.018
n.a.
$0.976
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
$0.960
$1.316
$1.041
$0.922
$0.842
$0.836
$0.936 $0.992 $1.121
n.a.
$0.960
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
$0.985
$1.354
$1.060
$0.952
$0.873
$0.924
$0.948 $1.019 $1.043
n.a.
$0.985
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
$0.988
$1.360
$1.067
$0.940
$0.918
$0.945
$0.992 $1.005 $0.976
n.a.
$0.988
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
$0.997
$1.401
$1.079
$0.946
$0.935
$0.990
$0.974 $1.002 $1.049
n.a.
$0.997
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
0.7%
-6.0%
-0.7%
1.6%
3.4%
1.6%
4.1%
0.6%
-8.2%
n.a.
0.7%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
3.5%
-0.8%
3.9%
3.4%
2.8%
-1.7%
6.1%
4.8%
-3.9%
n.a.
3.5%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
6.0%
3.0%
8.0%
5.0%
3.5%
4.5%
2.7%
6.6%
15.3%
n.a.
6.0%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
1.7%
1.4%
2.1%
1.6%
0.6%
0.6%
-2.8%
2.5%
6.2%
n.a.
1.7%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
4.4%
3.6%
4.8%
4.2%
3.4%
3.0%
2.4%
4.8%
8.7%
n.a.
4.4%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
4.5%
9.1%
3.7%
5.4%
3.4%
2.4%
6.7%
3.5%
12.0%
n.a.
4.5%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
2.2%
9.1%
1.6%
2.9%
1.4%
0.9%
1.3%
3.1%
2.5%
n.a.
2.2%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
3.2%
7.4%
2.9%
3.3%
3.5%
-1.3%
10.0%
2.8%
-6.0%
n.a.
3.2%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
2.1%
13.1%
1.4%
3.0%
0.0%
-4.1%
7.8%
2.1%
3.1%
n.a.
2.1%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
2.1%
-6.0%
1.1%
2.6%
4.5%
1.7%
6.5%
1.6%
-5.2%
n.a.
2.1%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
2.7%
2.3%
3.0%
2.6%
1.5%
-5.2%
4.5%
5.0%
-6.1%
n.a.
2.7%
n.a.
n.a. n.a.
3Q 12
6.2%
4.5%
8.3%
4.9%
4.5%
3.2%
2.2%
7.2%
15.3%
n.a.
6.2%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 12
0.4%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
-1.2%
-2.8%
-5.6%
2.6%
2.3%
n.a.
0.4%
n.a.
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 13
3.1%
5.2%
3.1%
3.2%
3.1%
1.2%
3.8%
3.6%
2.9%
n.a.
3.1%
n.a.
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 13
6.2%
6.0%
5.2%
7.2%
6.0%
4.7%
11.5%
3.8%
15.3%
n.a.
6.2%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
2.1%
9.1%
1.5%
3.2%
-0.9%
0.6%
-0.1%
3.1%
4.7%
n.a.
2.1%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
3.8%
8.9%
3.3%
4.0%
4.0%
-0.3%
10.9%
3.6%
-7.3%
n.a.
3.8%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
2.1%
13.1%
1.6%
3.0%
-1.7%
-4.7%
5.1%
2.7%
5.1%
n.a.
2.1%
n.a.
n.a.
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY Existing
Sampled
Percent
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
296
210
345
4.6%
4.6%
1Q 12
6,740
6,124
90.9%
296
(105)
172
0.0%
4.6%
2Q 12
6,740
6,420
95.3%
0
296
86
255
0.0%
4.6%
3Q 12
6,740
6,204
92.0%
4Q 12
0
296
(47)
173
0.0%
4.6%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
6,740
5,500
81.6%
1Q 13
0
0
(26)
(87)
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
6,740
6,012
89.2%
2Q 13
0
0
116
127
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
6,740
6,124
90.9%
3Q 13
0
0
(39)
(7)
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
6,740
6,420
95.3%
4Q 13
0
0
2
47
0.0%
0.0%
4Q 13
6,740
6,228
92.4%
1Q 14
0
0
(73)
(3)
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 14
6,740
5,469
81.1%
Period
Qtrly
Ann
1Q 12
296
2Q 12
0
3Q 12
© 2014 MPF Research
CHANGE
TAMPA BAY | 32
6 UNIVERSITY
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
All Other Submarkets
Quarterly
1.0k
SUBMARKET 16,213 9,705 59.9%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
0 314 2.0% 225 914 0 86 702
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual
0.5k 0.0k -0.5k
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q 12
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
3Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
2Q 12
93.4% 0.5 2.1 93.4% 86.9% 89.7%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$867 $0.948 ‐1.6% 2.4% 4.9% ‐3.8% 0.8%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
-1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 96%
Submarket
Metro
94% 92% 90%
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
‐1.1% 4.5% 6.5% ‐5.1% 1.7%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
© 2014 MPF Research
1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 6%
Submarket
Metro
4% 2% 0%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
88%
0 16 93.5% 0.1
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
-2% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 33
6 UNIVERSITY
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub# 6
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters Flats at 4200 (The) 4200 E Fletcher Av e, Tampa, FL 33613
Developer Edwards Companies
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish Student
314
4
02/12 08/13
Total Units: 314
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 33612, 33613, 33620
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 34
6 UNIVERSITY
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
89.3%
84.3%
88.3%
88.0%
96.1%
96.9%
94.6%
88.6%
86.0%
86.2%
88.9%
98.3%
100.0%
2Q 12
91.1%
90.8%
89.7%
90.4%
96.3%
95.8%
95.0%
90.0%
90.8%
86.0%
90.7%
99.0%
100.0%
3Q 12
90.9%
80.9%
90.3%
91.3%
94.6%
95.2%
94.8%
89.3%
89.8%
89.7%
90.5%
98.8%
97.6%
4Q 12
91.0%
75.7%
91.4%
90.9%
94.4%
93.8%
92.2%
90.9%
88.4%
92.5%
90.4%
98.0%
100.0%
1Q 13
91.3%
74.4%
92.1%
91.1%
94.8%
96.0%
90.1%
90.7%
88.7%
91.9%
90.8%
98.5%
100.0%
2Q 13
92.4%
75.7%
93.3%
92.5%
95.9%
96.8%
89.4%
92.0%
90.4%
94.1%
92.1%
99.0%
100.0%
3Q 13
93.1%
75.2%
94.0%
93.6%
96.0%
97.0%
91.3%
91.4%
92.8%
94.9%
92.9%
98.5%
100.0%
4Q 13
92.9%
95.7%
92.5%
92.2%
95.0%
96.8%
94.1%
94.4%
88.1%
93.1%
92.5%
99.0%
100.0%
1Q 14
93.4%
92.9%
93.3%
93.2%
94.1%
95.4%
92.5%
94.1%
91.6%
92.3%
93.2%
99.0%
90.6%
1Q 12
$831
$411
$627
$797
$1,553
$1,520
$940
$689
$656
$535
$781
$2,073
$1,164
2Q 12
$820
$390
$639
$792
$1,475
$1,450
$962
$683
$695
$542
$767
$2,109
$1,165
3Q 12
$865
$386
$680
$820
$1,480
$1,480
$967
$739
$677
$561
$812
$2,067
$1,164
4Q 12
$888
$397
$647
$819
$1,581
$1,584
$921
$697
$672
$554
$804
$2,181
$1,162
1Q 13
$887
$393
$640
$809
$1,602
$1,595
$966
$676
$672
$540
$799
$2,213
$1,174
2Q 13
$838
$408
$659
$804
$1,461
$1,485
$968
$692
$696
$573
$780
$2,189
$1,174
3Q 13
$850
$408
$669
$813
$1,485
$1,507
$973
$705
$713
$555
$792
$2,202
$1,174
4Q 13
$887
$525
$672
$824
$1,543
$1,566
$999
$743
$698
$571
$815
$2,382
$1,175
1Q 14
$867
$495
$663
$812
$1,496
$1,522
$998
$723
$704
$577
$805
$2,213
$1,192
1Q 12
$0.938
$1.058
$0.927
$0.807
$1.160
$1.226
$0.876 $0.922 $0.755
$0.823
$0.903
$1.392
$2.213
2Q 12
$0.931
$0.981
$0.970
$0.793
$1.120
$1.181
$0.897 $0.903 $0.788
$0.811
$0.892
$1.416
$2.215
3Q 12
$0.972
$0.987
$1.034
$0.821
$1.115
$1.193
$0.901 $1.019 $0.766
$0.839
$0.935
$1.388
$2.213
4Q 12
$0.971
$1.013
$0.967
$0.820
$1.177
$1.268
$0.858 $0.910 $0.765
$0.851
$0.910
$1.499
$2.209
1Q 13
$0.976
$0.997
$0.968
$0.817
$1.192
$1.276
$0.901 $0.932 $0.758
$0.831
$0.912
$1.520
$2.232
2Q 13
$0.944
$1.022
$0.990
$0.815
$1.109
$1.209
$0.903 $0.928 $0.775
$0.858
$0.901
$1.470
$2.232
3Q 13
$0.952
$1.028
$1.002
$0.823
$1.127
$1.227
$0.906 $0.907 $0.804
$0.831
$0.909
$1.478
$2.232
4Q 13
$0.978
$1.222
$1.009
$0.838
$1.170
$1.270
$0.931 $0.941 $0.789
$0.855
$0.923
$1.600
$2.234
1Q 14
$0.948
$1.181
$0.990
$0.812
$1.134
$1.235
$0.930 $0.898 $0.774
$0.888
$0.902
$1.486
$2.266
1Q 12
1.6%
8.1%
-0.6%
0.6%
4.9%
4.9%
-2.2%
0.9%
-1.4%
1.2%
1.6%
1.6%
1.8%
2Q 12
2.3%
-0.8%
-1.0%
1.4%
7.3%
8.3%
3.1%
-1.2%
1.9%
-1.2%
1.9%
6.0%
1.9%
3Q 12
0.4%
-0.1%
3.2%
0.0%
-1.6%
-0.4%
4.4%
4.4%
-4.9%
6.2%
0.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4Q 12
0.0%
-1.4%
-0.7%
0.9%
-0.3%
-0.6%
-1.7%
-0.3%
1.7%
-1.9%
-0.2%
1.2%
-0.1%
1Q 13
-0.2%
-1.9%
0.3%
-0.5%
-0.3%
1.6%
2.8%
-2.4%
-1.6%
1.0%
-0.5%
1.8%
0.9%
2Q 13
1.4%
2.2%
3.0%
2.0%
-0.6%
2.4%
0.6%
2.1%
-1.7%
5.7%
1.2%
3.8%
0.8%
3Q 13
2.5%
0.2%
0.7%
3.3%
3.4%
5.8%
0.6%
-2.3%
6.0%
-1.0%
2.0%
6.8%
0.9%
4Q 13
3.5%
2.1%
2.6%
2.7%
5.2%
4.4%
8.4%
2.5%
2.2%
3.2%
2.2%
13.3%
1.1%
1Q 14
2.4%
-0.2%
1.5%
3.9%
1.9%
2.0%
3.3%
2.8%
1.5%
6.8%
2.1%
4.9%
1.5%
1Q 12
2.2%
1.4%
-0.1%
1.0%
8.0%
7.3%
-3.8%
0.6%
-0.3%
1.7%
2.1%
6.1%
5.3%
2Q 12
5.2%
2.6%
0.7%
5.1%
11.6%
12.9%
1.2%
-1.5%
9.4%
-1.7%
4.7%
10.2%
7.8%
3Q 12
2.6%
-7.9%
5.7%
3.8%
-0.5%
1.1%
1.8%
2.5%
2.6%
7.5%
2.5%
7.4%
-2.3%
ANNUAL
4Q 12
3.7%
-6.3%
5.4%
5.2%
-1.9%
-5.1%
-3.6%
3.0%
7.6%
7.2%
3.4%
0.7%
-0.1%
REVENUE
1Q 13
1.8%
-11.8%
4.1%
2.6%
-1.6%
0.7%
-1.7%
-0.3%
1.1%
6.7%
1.4%
2.0%
0.9%
CHANGE
2Q 13
2.7%
-12.9%
6.6%
4.1%
-1.0%
3.4%
-5.0%
4.1%
-2.1%
13.8%
2.6%
3.8%
0.8%
3Q 13
4.7%
-5.5%
4.4%
5.6%
4.8%
7.6%
-2.9%
-0.2%
9.0%
4.2%
4.4%
6.5%
3.3%
4Q 13
5.4%
22.1%
3.7%
4.0%
5.8%
7.4%
10.3%
6.0%
1.9%
3.8%
4.3%
14.3%
1.1%
1Q 14
4.5%
18.3%
2.7%
6.0%
1.2%
1.4%
5.7%
6.2%
4.4%
7.2%
4.5%
5.4%
-7.9%
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND Ann
INVENTORY CHANGE
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Qtrly
Ann
Period
1Q 12
0
0
259
92
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 12
15,693
11,136
71.0%
2Q 12
0
0
250
350
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 12
15,693
10,845
69.1%
3Q 12
206
206
159
465
1.3%
1.3%
3Q 12
15,899
10,146
63.8%
4Q 12
0
206
7
662
0.0%
1.3%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
15,899
10,356
65.1%
1Q 13
0
206
64
483
0.0%
1.3%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
15,899
10,238
64.4%
2Q 13
0
206
197
443
0.0%
1.3%
2Q 13
15,899
10,456
65.8%
3Q 13
314
314
364
692
2.0%
2.0%
3Q 13
16,213
10,537
65.0%
4Q 13
0
314
(34)
713
0.0%
2.0%
4Q 13
16,213
9,251
57.1%
1Q 14
0
314
86
702
0.0%
2.0%
1Q 14
16,213
9,705
59.9%
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 35
7 TEMPLE TERRACE
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
All Other Submarkets
Quarterly
1.0k
SUBMARKET 13,015 10,326 79.3%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
0 0 0.0% 122 369 0 ‐58 104
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual
0.5k 0.0k -0.5k
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q 12
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
3Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
2Q 12
93.1% ‐0.5 0.7 93.6% 87.8% 90.3%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$816 $0.850 ‐0.5% 1.9% 4.4% ‐5.5% 0.2%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
-1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 96%
Submarket
Metro
94% 92% 90%
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
‐1.0% 2.6% 5.7% ‐7.9% 0.6%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
0 26 93.3% 0.2
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
© 2014 MPF Research
88% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 6%
Submarket
Metro
5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 36
7 TEMPLE TERRACE
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties completed during the last four quarters.
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 33610, 33617, 33637
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 37
7 TEMPLE TERRACE
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
1Q 12
90.6%
85.6%
90.1%
90.9%
90.8%
91.5%
90.0%
90.4%
89.8%
93.7%
90.3%
98.7%
High-Rise 100.0%
2Q 12
91.4%
87.4%
90.1%
92.6%
90.9%
93.3%
90.8%
91.7%
88.8%
95.2%
91.1%
100.0%
100.0%
3Q 12
91.5%
82.9%
89.8%
92.9%
91.9%
93.9%
88.6%
90.2%
91.2%
91.5%
91.3%
98.1%
100.0%
4Q 12
91.3%
85.1%
89.8%
92.3%
92.1%
93.5%
93.5%
89.2%
90.7%
89.3%
91.2%
89.1%
100.0%
1Q 13
92.4%
81.0%
91.7%
93.0%
92.8%
93.1%
92.4%
92.0%
92.9%
88.2%
92.3%
94.2%
100.0%
2Q 13
92.7%
81.0%
91.3%
93.6%
93.8%
94.7%
91.9%
92.4%
92.4%
86.8%
92.6%
94.9%
100.0%
3Q 13
92.2%
86.1%
91.2%
92.3%
94.2%
94.3%
95.5%
90.7%
91.6%
88.7%
92.1%
94.9%
100.0%
4Q 13
93.6%
90.9%
92.8%
93.2%
96.0%
95.4%
94.1%
93.4%
92.3%
90.5%
93.5%
96.8%
100.0%
1Q 14
93.1%
91.1%
92.1%
92.8%
96.0%
95.8%
91.8%
92.3%
91.8%
91.8%
93.0%
98.4%
100.0%
1Q 12
$796
$466
$642
$770
$1,202
$1,047
$761
$703
$697
$768
$758
$2,239
$1,634
2Q 12
$792
$483
$644
$780
$1,144
$976
$759
$719
$688
$777
$757
$2,208
$1,634
3Q 12
$804
$477
$650
$800
$1,130
$987
$755
$711
$737
$733
$772
$2,221
$1,634
4Q 12
$799
$444
$649
$785
$1,129
$991
$779
$672
$738
$757
$770
$2,130
$1,641
1Q 13
$828
$519
$671
$806
$1,130
$995
$787
$754
$729
$673
$793
$2,202
$1,641
2Q 13
$847
$487
$687
$826
$1,202
$1,050
$798
$765
$734
$714
$813
$2,224
$1,641
3Q 13
$825
$563
$664
$815
$1,155
$1,017
$799
$726
$748
$747
$794
$2,173
$1,648
4Q 13
$835
$544
$680
$819
$1,153
$1,026
$816
$734
$759
$707
$803
$2,257
$1,598
1Q 14
$816
$557
$669
$811
$1,109
$990
$808
$727
$738
$728
$795
$2,320
$1,663
1Q 12
$0.839
$1.171
$0.913
$0.763
$0.912
$0.919
$0.876 $0.883 $0.731
$0.725
$0.808
$1.543
$1.625
2Q 12
$0.839
$1.215
$0.931
$0.774
$0.867
$0.864
$0.875 $0.903 $0.753
$0.733
$0.809
$1.521
$1.625
3Q 12
$0.849
$1.199
$0.929
$0.796
$0.862
$0.869
$0.870 $0.893 $0.797
$0.798
$0.822
$1.530
$1.625
4Q 12
$0.845
$1.402
$0.938
$0.787
$0.850
$0.861
$0.898 $0.881 $0.798
$0.714
$0.819
$1.573
$1.631
1Q 13
$0.857
$1.504
$0.959
$0.806
$0.852
$0.863
$0.907 $0.921 $0.806
$0.733
$0.829
$1.517
$1.631
2Q 13
$0.880
$1.411
$0.976
$0.820
$0.897
$0.913
$0.919 $0.937 $0.791
$0.778
$0.852
$1.533
$1.631
3Q 13
$0.859
$1.632
$0.946
$0.804
$0.867
$0.881
$0.920 $0.913 $0.784
$0.814
$0.834
$1.497
$1.638
4Q 13
$0.860
$1.529
$0.960
$0.803
$0.866
$0.889
$0.940 $0.916 $0.774
$0.770
$0.834
$1.555
$1.589
1Q 14
$0.850
$1.614
$0.957
$0.799
$0.833
$0.862
$0.931 $0.916 $0.778
$0.793
$0.832
$1.458
$1.653
1Q 12
1.3%
0.0%
-1.5%
0.6%
5.3%
4.9%
-3.7%
-0.3%
0.3%
n.a.
1.3%
4.3%
-2.0%
2Q 12
1.0%
-9.2%
1.3%
1.7%
-0.4%
-1.5%
-3.3%
3.9%
4.9%
n.a.
1.0%
0.5%
1.8%
3Q 12
2.3%
-3.6%
0.1%
4.7%
0.7%
0.0%
-4.4%
1.2%
6.1%
15.3%
2.4%
1.1%
1.8%
4Q 12
0.1%
-2.9%
1.5%
0.4%
-2.3%
-2.2%
-3.7%
0.8%
3.8%
0.7%
0.0%
0.8%
2.6%
1Q 13
0.4%
5.4%
0.2%
3.2%
-4.2%
-2.4%
3.5%
1.4%
3.2%
-6.1%
0.5%
-1.7%
0.4%
2Q 13
4.4%
-3.9%
3.2%
5.2%
4.2%
6.6%
5.0%
1.7%
3.3%
3.2%
4.7%
0.7%
0.4%
3Q 13
2.0%
13.1%
1.4%
2.2%
2.2%
2.7%
5.8%
2.0%
-0.3%
1.9%
2.0%
3.5%
0.8%
4Q 13
1.5%
16.6%
1.5%
2.0%
0.6%
0.4%
4.7%
3.5%
0.4%
-0.4%
1.7%
0.0%
-2.6%
1Q 14
1.9%
7.3%
2.6%
1.2%
2.0%
2.0%
2.7%
1.3%
0.5%
8.1%
2.0%
-1.7%
1.4%
1Q 12
2.8%
4.6%
0.5%
1.5%
7.1%
5.8%
-4.0%
-0.7%
2.2%
n.a.
2.8%
4.1%
-1.3%
2Q 12
3.0%
-8.3%
1.8%
3.5%
4.5%
2.2%
-4.8%
2.7%
3.4%
n.a.
3.0%
1.1%
1.8%
3Q 12
3.8%
-8.0%
0.0%
6.8%
4.2%
3.8%
-6.6%
-4.7%
7.7%
40.8%
3.9%
-0.8%
1.8% 3.8%
ANNUAL
4Q 12
1.4%
-10.2%
1.9%
2.9%
-1.9%
-0.7%
0.3%
-1.2%
2.6%
25.9%
1.4%
-8.8%
REVENUE
1Q 13
2.2%
0.8%
1.8%
5.3%
-2.2%
-0.8%
5.9%
3.0%
6.3%
-11.6%
2.5%
-6.2%
0.4%
CHANGE
2Q 13
5.7%
-10.3%
4.4%
6.2%
7.1%
8.0%
6.1%
2.4%
6.9%
-5.2%
6.2%
-4.4%
0.4%
3Q 13
2.7%
16.3%
2.8%
1.6%
4.5%
3.1%
12.7%
2.5%
0.1%
-0.9%
2.8%
0.3%
0.8%
4Q 13
3.8%
22.4%
4.5%
2.9%
4.5%
2.3%
5.3%
7.7%
2.0%
0.8%
4.0%
7.7%
-2.6%
1Q 14
2.6%
17.4%
3.0%
1.0%
5.2%
4.7%
2.1%
1.6%
-0.6%
11.7%
2.7%
2.5%
1.4%
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY Existing
Sampled
Percent
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
1Q 12
0
0
61
179
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 12
13,015
9,233
70.9%
2Q 12
0
0
93
193
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 12
13,015
9,699
74.5%
3Q 12
0
0
22
170
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 12
13,015
10,505
80.7%
4Q 12
0
0
(29)
150
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
13,015
8,534
65.6%
1Q 13
0
0
165
235
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
13,015
9,666
74.3%
2Q 13
0
0
43
198
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
13,015
9,592
73.7%
3Q 13
0
0
(71)
100
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
13,015
10,836
83.3%
4Q 13
0
0
212
356
0.0%
0.0%
4Q 13
13,015
10,453
80.3%
1Q 14
0
0
(58)
104
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 14
13,015
10,326
79.3%
© 2014 MPF Research
CHANGE
TAMPA BAY | 38
8 NEW TAMPA/EAST PASCO COUNTY
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
Occupancy
1.0k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.5k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET 15,221 12,673 83.3%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
46 214 1.4% 370 912 0 ‐51 322
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
94.0% ‐0.6 0.5 95.4% 92.1% 93.6%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$944 $0.880 ‐1.8% ‐0.2% 5.1% ‐4.9% 0.6%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
‐2.4% 0.3% 6.3% ‐4.7% 1.1%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
0 51 94.4% 0.4
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual
1.5k 1.0k 0.5k 0.0k -0.5k -1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 97%
Submarket
Metro
96% 95% 94% 93% 92%
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q 12
Quarterly
2.0k
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q 12
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
2Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2014 MPF Research
Annual
1.5k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
2.0k
91% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 4%
Submarket
Metro
3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 39
8 NEW TAMPA/EAST PASCO COUNTY
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub# 8 8
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters Links at Pebble Creek (The) 18940 Pebble Links Cir, Tampa, FL 33647 Altis at Grand Cypress II 1901 Cypress Preserv e Dr, Lutz, FL 33549
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Bayfair Properties
Conv entional
168
3
01/12 04/13
The Altman Companies
Conv entional
46
3
04/13 03/14 Total Units: 214
Sub# 8
Properties Under Construction Bonterra Parc State Road 56 & Northwood Palms Blv d, Tampa, FL 33544
Developer AG Spanos Companies
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish Conv entional
264
4
02/14 06/15 Total Units: 264
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 33523, 33525, 33540, 33541, 33542, 33543, 33544, 33545, 33549, 33559, 33565, 33576, 33592, 33647, 34639
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 40
8 NEW TAMPA/EAST PASCO COUNTY
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
94.1%
98.2%
94.0%
94.3%
93.4%
93.3%
91.5%
96.0%
100.0%
n.a.
94.1%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
94.2%
98.7%
93.9%
94.5%
93.9%
94.1%
92.4%
95.2%
100.0%
n.a.
94.2%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
94.1%
94.5%
94.3%
94.2%
93.6%
93.6%
94.2%
94.8%
98.3%
n.a.
94.1%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
94.0%
97.4%
93.5%
94.3%
93.7%
94.0%
91.9%
94.9%
98.8%
n.a.
94.0%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
93.5%
98.7%
93.8%
93.2%
93.2%
92.0%
92.1%
96.3%
98.3%
n.a.
93.5%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
93.8%
97.4%
93.3%
93.8%
94.4%
92.9%
93.7%
95.1%
100.0%
n.a.
93.8%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
95.4%
97.4%
95.1%
95.4%
95.8%
95.5%
94.0%
95.9%
97.1%
n.a.
95.4%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
94.6%
97.4%
94.6%
94.7%
94.4%
94.1%
93.1%
96.2%
98.3%
n.a.
94.6%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
94.0%
98.7%
94.4%
94.2%
92.8%
93.2%
90.7%
96.8%
98.3%
n.a.
94.0%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
$925
$578
$743
$946
$1,207
$1,007
$977
$797
$799
n.a.
$925
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
$927
$614
$738
$944
$1,208
$1,002
$981
$789
$821
n.a.
$927
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
$937
$597
$744
$954
$1,237
$1,031
$994
$773
$809
n.a.
$937
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
$936
$596
$749
$953
$1,216
$1,028
$966
$784
$804
n.a.
$936
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
$935
$629
$758
$939
$1,238
$1,004
$950
$827
$769
n.a.
$935
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
$940
$606
$753
$961
$1,211
$1,018
$951
$808
$835
n.a.
$940
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
$960
$612
$774
$977
$1,244
$1,038
$990
$824
$768
n.a.
$960
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
$955
$625
$775
$974
$1,218
$1,040
$980
$803
$844
n.a.
$955
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
$944
$603
$765
$958
$1,220
$1,015
$981
$813
$862
n.a.
$944
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
$0.877
$1.287
$0.963
$0.836
$0.872
$0.871
$0.861 $0.899 $0.841
n.a.
$0.877
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
$0.868
$1.328
$0.943
$0.830
$0.869
$0.866
$0.850 $0.885 $0.864
n.a.
$0.868
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
$0.879
$1.330
$0.953
$0.837
$0.888
$0.888
$0.861 $0.873 $0.852
n.a.
$0.879
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
$0.874
$1.288
$0.955
$0.835
$0.873
$0.885
$0.837 $0.879 $0.846
n.a.
$0.874
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
$0.881
$1.360
$0.978
$0.829
$0.890
$0.870
$0.838 $0.931 $0.809
n.a.
$0.881
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
$0.883
$1.309
$0.969
$0.847
$0.872
$0.886
$0.832 $0.907 $0.879
n.a.
$0.883
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
$0.897
$1.322
$0.985
$0.858
$0.893
$0.904
$0.837 $0.928 $0.808
n.a.
$0.897
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
$0.893
$1.351
$0.990
$0.855
$0.877
$0.905
$0.843 $0.902 $0.888
n.a.
$0.893
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
$0.880
$1.304
$0.972
$0.839
$0.875
$0.882
$0.822 $0.913 $0.907
n.a.
$0.880
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
1.0%
n.a.
3.2%
-0.6%
1.8%
-0.6%
2.5%
7.4%
6.4%
n.a.
1.0%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
2.5%
12.2%
1.9%
3.1%
1.5%
1.0%
6.2%
2.7%
5.4%
n.a.
2.5%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
1.3%
3.7%
2.2%
0.9%
1.2%
0.6%
3.9%
1.0%
-1.2%
n.a.
1.3%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
1.1%
-2.1%
1.4%
1.4%
0.5%
2.2%
-0.3%
0.0%
3.9%
n.a.
1.1%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
-0.4%
6.1%
1.4%
-1.9%
0.5%
-1.7%
-2.7%
3.4%
-3.8%
n.a.
-0.4%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
0.8%
-1.4%
1.5%
0.9%
0.1%
1.7%
-4.9%
2.4%
1.7%
n.a.
0.8%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
1.4%
-0.4%
2.5%
1.4%
0.3%
0.4%
-2.8%
6.6%
-5.1%
n.a.
1.4%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
1.5%
5.0%
2.6%
1.3%
0.5%
1.2%
0.6%
2.4%
5.0%
n.a.
1.5%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
-0.2%
-4.1%
-0.6%
1.1%
-2.2%
0.7%
-1.3%
-2.0%
12.0%
n.a.
-0.2%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
3.0%
n.a.
4.8%
1.9%
2.9%
0.9%
2.4%
10.5%
8.1%
n.a.
3.0%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
2.8%
12.2%
1.7%
3.7%
1.9%
2.6%
4.2%
2.1%
11.2%
n.a.
2.8%
n.a.
n.a. n.a.
3Q 12
1.1%
-0.6%
1.8%
0.6%
1.7%
2.0%
3.9%
-1.2%
-1.2%
n.a.
1.1%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 12
1.3%
-2.9%
0.3%
1.9%
1.7%
4.4%
-1.4%
-2.2%
2.7%
n.a.
1.3%
n.a.
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 13
-1.0%
6.6%
1.2%
-3.0%
0.3%
-3.0%
-2.1%
3.7%
-5.5%
n.a.
-1.0%
n.a.
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 13
0.4%
-2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
0.6%
0.5%
-3.6%
2.3%
1.7%
n.a.
0.4%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
2.7%
2.5%
3.3%
2.6%
2.5%
2.3%
-3.0%
7.7%
-6.3%
n.a.
2.7%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
2.1%
5.0%
3.7%
1.7%
1.2%
1.3%
1.8%
3.7%
4.5%
n.a.
2.1%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
0.3%
-4.1%
0.0%
2.1%
-2.6%
1.9%
-2.7%
-1.5%
12.0%
n.a.
0.3%
n.a.
n.a.
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY Existing
Sampled
Percent
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
1Q 12
0
210
28
440
0.0%
1.5%
1Q 12
14,263
11,483
80.5%
2Q 12
0
210
21
184
0.0%
1.5%
2Q 12
14,263
12,313
86.3%
3Q 12
486
576
444
447
3.4%
4.1%
3Q 12
14,749
12,493
84.7%
4Q 12
258
744
210
630
1.7%
5.2%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
15,007
12,401
82.6%
1Q 13
0
744
(69)
582
0.0%
5.2%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
15,007
12,361
82.4%
2Q 13
168
912
235
881
1.1%
6.4%
2Q 13
15,175
12,575
82.9%
3Q 13
0
426
223
641
0.0%
2.9%
3Q 13
15,175
12,821
84.5%
4Q 13
0
168
(95)
309
0.0%
1.1%
4Q 13
15,175
12,959
85.4%
1Q 14
46
214
(51)
322
0.3%
1.4%
1Q 14
15,221
12,673
83.3%
© 2014 MPF Research
CHANGE
TAMPA BAY | 41
9 BRANDON/SOUTHEAST HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET 17,396 14,719 84.6%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
0 344 2.0% 270 648 0 181 336
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
93.9% 1.1 ‐0.1 94.8% 89.9% 93.3%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$899 $0.904 ‐0.4% 0.1% 4.8% ‐2.8% 1.1%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
0.7% 0.0% 5.4% ‐3.3% 1.7%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
0 59 94.2% 0.3
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual
0.5k 0.0k
-1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 96%
Submarket
Metro
95% 94% 93% 92% 91%
REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1Q 13
-0.5k
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q 12
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q 12
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
2Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2014 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
90% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 4%
Submarket
Metro
3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 42
9 BRANDON/SOUTHEAST HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub# 9
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters Crescent Crosstown 9712 Bosque Creek Cir, Tampa, FL 33619
Developer Crescent Communities
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish Conv entional
344
3
05/12 11/13
Total Units: 344
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 33510, 33511, 33527, 33534, 33547, 33563, 33566, 33567, 33569, 33570, 33572, 33573, 33578, 33579, 33584, 33594, 33596, 33598, 33619
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 43
9 BRANDON/SOUTHEAST HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
91.9%
95.1%
92.1%
91.7%
92.1%
91.8%
91.5%
93.0%
91.3%
n.a.
92.9%
51.6%
n.a.
2Q 12
93.5%
95.1%
93.7%
93.4%
93.2%
93.4%
93.2%
93.6%
97.1%
n.a.
94.3%
60.1%
n.a.
3Q 12
94.0%
91.8%
93.9%
94.0%
93.9%
94.0%
93.8%
94.1%
94.2%
n.a.
94.8%
60.1%
n.a.
4Q 12
93.9%
84.5%
94.0%
93.8%
93.9%
94.3%
93.0%
93.9%
92.3%
n.a.
94.5%
67.8%
n.a.
1Q 13
94.0%
92.6%
94.5%
93.5%
94.6%
93.5%
95.0%
94.0%
93.8%
n.a.
94.4%
78.9%
n.a.
2Q 13
94.6%
93.4%
94.2%
94.6%
95.2%
93.7%
95.1%
95.8%
98.1%
n.a.
95.0%
76.1%
n.a.
3Q 13
94.2%
95.1%
94.0%
94.1%
94.7%
93.5%
94.5%
95.5%
91.9%
n.a.
94.7%
72.1%
n.a.
4Q 13
92.8%
94.9%
92.3%
92.9%
93.4%
92.0%
93.2%
94.5%
90.9%
n.a.
92.8%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
93.9%
95.8%
94.2%
93.6%
93.9%
93.1%
94.7%
94.9%
91.9%
n.a.
94.1%
86.3%
n.a.
1Q 12
$863
$568
$755
$887
$999
$952
$793
$757
$692
n.a.
$853
$1,256
n.a.
2Q 12
$885
$642
$766
$909
$1,030
$972
$817
$762
$729
n.a.
$877
$1,189
n.a.
3Q 12
$893
$619
$768
$922
$1,036
$995
$802
$769
$712
n.a.
$883
$1,308
n.a.
4Q 12
$887
$585
$760
$921
$1,024
$973
$811
$769
$788
n.a.
$881
$1,114
n.a.
1Q 13
$896
$645
$781
$923
$1,031
$986
$824
$766
$846
n.a.
$889
$1,189
n.a.
2Q 13
$909
$628
$786
$949
$1,031
$1,010
$828
$764
$932
n.a.
$896
$1,476
n.a.
3Q 13
$913
$650
$791
$940
$1,060
$1,006
$840
$772
$859
n.a.
$901
$1,392
n.a.
4Q 13
$905
$601
$778
$937
$1,055
$999
$840
$763
$752
n.a.
$905
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
$899
$675
$780
$928
$1,039
$997
$818
$770
$799
n.a.
$896
$1,026
n.a.
1Q 12
$0.878
$1.315
$1.008
$0.841
$0.813
$0.896
$0.818 $0.937 $0.737
n.a.
$0.868
$1.273
n.a.
2Q 12
$0.893
$1.487
$1.017
$0.858
$0.836
$0.914
$0.835 $0.936 $0.776
n.a.
$0.885
$1.205
n.a.
3Q 12
$0.894
$1.434
$1.019
$0.863
$0.830
$0.918
$0.819 $0.951 $0.758
n.a.
$0.884
$1.326
n.a.
4Q 12
$0.889
$1.393
$1.010
$0.861
$0.818
$0.902
$0.829 $0.936 $0.901
n.a.
$0.883
$1.129
n.a.
1Q 13
$0.899
$1.397
$1.037
$0.864
$0.824
$0.913
$0.851 $0.933 $0.864
n.a.
$0.892
$1.205
n.a.
2Q 13
$0.914
$1.417
$1.046
$0.889
$0.824
$0.936
$0.855 $0.935 $0.952
n.a.
$0.900
$1.496
n.a.
3Q 13
$0.914
$1.467
$1.051
$0.878
$0.847
$0.932
$0.859 $0.943 $0.877
n.a.
$0.902
$1.411
n.a.
4Q 13
$0.908
$1.468
$1.034
$0.875
$0.842
$0.923
$0.867 $0.932 $0.860
n.a.
$0.908
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
$0.904
$1.608
$1.037
$0.869
$0.831
$0.924
$0.844 $0.935 $0.914
n.a.
$0.901
$1.040
n.a.
1Q 12
-0.4%
0.0%
2.3%
-1.3%
-1.8%
-1.6%
-0.9%
3.2%
7.1%
n.a.
-0.4%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
1.8%
12.8%
1.8%
1.6%
2.2%
1.1%
2.6%
2.8%
5.3%
n.a.
1.8%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
2.0%
13.6%
2.2%
2.2%
1.1%
2.1%
0.6%
3.2%
4.2%
n.a.
2.0%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
1.7%
4.2%
1.4%
2.6%
0.2%
0.9%
2.1%
2.8%
13.7%
n.a.
1.7%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
2.3%
10.0%
2.5%
2.6%
1.4%
2.1%
4.0%
0.2%
7.9%
n.a.
2.6%
-5.3%
n.a.
2Q 13
2.0%
-2.2%
2.9%
3.5%
-2.2%
2.8%
1.6%
-0.9%
9.6%
n.a.
1.2%
24.2%
n.a.
3Q 13
2.5%
5.0%
3.3%
2.3%
1.8%
2.2%
4.8%
-0.1%
5.1%
n.a.
2.3%
6.4%
n.a.
4Q 13
2.0%
5.5%
2.2%
1.3%
3.2%
2.1%
3.7%
-0.5%
-4.5%
n.a.
2.0%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
0.1%
10.4%
-0.3%
0.1%
0.4%
0.5%
-0.7%
0.1%
-0.1%
n.a.
0.6%
-13.7%
n.a.
1Q 12
-1.8%
4.9%
1.4%
-3.1%
-3.1%
-2.3%
-4.0%
2.2%
4.2%
n.a.
-0.8%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
0.5%
17.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
-0.6%
2.0%
7.1%
n.a.
1.3%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
1.9%
13.1%
2.1%
2.0%
0.6%
1.6%
1.8%
2.3%
3.3%
n.a.
2.7%
n.a.
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 12
2.4%
-6.2%
2.9%
2.9%
0.2%
1.5%
2.3%
3.7%
14.0%
n.a.
3.0%
n.a.
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 13
4.4%
7.5%
4.9%
4.4%
3.9%
3.8%
7.5%
1.2%
10.4%
n.a.
4.1%
22.0%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 13
3.1%
-3.9%
3.4%
4.7%
-0.2%
3.1%
3.5%
1.3%
10.6%
n.a.
1.9%
40.2%
n.a.
3Q 13
2.7%
8.3%
3.4%
2.4%
2.6%
1.7%
5.5%
1.3%
2.8%
n.a.
2.2%
18.4%
n.a.
4Q 13
0.9%
15.9%
0.5%
0.4%
2.7%
-0.2%
3.9%
0.1%
-5.9%
n.a.
0.3%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
0.0%
13.6%
-0.6%
0.2%
-0.3%
0.1%
-1.0%
1.0%
-2.0%
n.a.
0.3%
-6.3%
n.a.
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY Existing
Sampled
Percent
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
(259)
88
0.0%
2.1%
1Q 12
17,052
14,523
85.2%
231
(289)
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 12
17,052
13,957
81.8%
0
85
(35)
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 12
17,052
14,514
85.1%
0
0
(18)
91
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
17,052
14,678
86.1%
1Q 13
0
0
32
340
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
17,052
14,899
87.4%
2Q 13
0
0
104
209
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
17,052
14,945
87.6%
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
1Q 12
0
351
2Q 12
0
0
3Q 12
0
4Q 12
CHANGE
3Q 13
0
0
(76)
38
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
17,052
14,630
85.8%
4Q 13
344
344
112
174
2.0%
2.0%
4Q 13
17,396
14,942
85.9%
1Q 14
0
344
181
336
0.0%
2.0%
1Q 14
17,396
14,719
84.6%
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 44
10 SOUTH ST. PETERSBURG
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
All Other Submarkets
Quarterly
2.0k
SUBMARKET 19,655 3,853 19.6%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
40 261 1.3% 190 563 0 ‐142 ‐585
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q 12
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
3Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
2Q 12
89.4% ‐0.9 ‐4.6 94.5% 83.8% 90.7%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$844 $0.987 ‐0.1% 3.8% 5.2% ‐7.9% 0.3%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
Annual
1.5k 1.0k 0.5k 0.0k -0.5k -1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 96%
Submarket
Metro
94% 92% 90%
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
‐1.0% ‐0.8% 11.2% ‐12.4% 0.3%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
635 566 89.4% 0.0
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
© 2014 MPF Research
88% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 8%
Submarket
Metro
6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 45
10 SOUTH ST. PETERSBURG
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub# 10 10 10
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters Campbell Landings 365 6th St S, St Petersburg, FL 33701 Harbour's Edge 300 4th Av e S, St Petersburg, FL 33701 Urban Landing 320 4th Av e S, St Petersburg, FL 33701
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
DDA Dev elopment
Senior
96
5
01/13 12/13
Atlantic Housing Partners
Senior
125
5
02/13 12/13
Atlantic Housing Partners
Affordable
40
5
02/13 02/14 Total Units: 261
Sub# 10 10
Properties Under Construction Beacon 430 (The) 430 3rd Av e S, St Petersburg, FL 33701 Modera Prime 235 235 3rd Av e N, St Petersburg, FL 33701
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
The NRP Group LLC
Conv entional
326
4
02/13 08/14
Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC
Conv entional
309
8
01/13 11/14 Total Units: 635
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 33701, 33704, 33705, 33706, 33707, 33710, 33711, 33712, 33713, 33715, 33730
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 46
10 SOUTH ST. PETERSBURG
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
90.2%
87.3%
90.6%
89.9%
92.4%
84.2%
95.0%
90.5%
91.2%
91.6%
91.1%
73.8%
98.3%
2Q 12
93.4%
92.9%
94.2%
92.9%
92.6%
90.3%
n.a.
95.1%
93.4%
96.6%
93.8%
86.2%
99.4%
3Q 12
94.5%
92.0%
94.9%
94.4%
93.0%
95.8%
95.7% 100.0%
93.9%
98.4%
94.1%
95.1%
100.0%
4Q 12
94.5%
95.5%
95.0%
93.8%
95.1%
96.7%
n.a.
95.1%
93.7%
100.0%
94.2%
95.1%
98.9%
1Q 13
94.0%
95.0%
94.4%
93.4%
95.1%
95.9%
n.a.
100.0%
93.4%
100.0%
93.7%
95.1%
98.3%
2Q 13
92.7%
94.0%
93.1%
92.1%
93.3%
94.7%
95.7% 100.0%
92.0%
93.3%
92.6%
95.1%
90.4%
3Q 13
93.0%
94.0%
93.6%
92.5%
92.7%
98.2%
96.4% 100.0%
91.5%
98.4%
92.3%
97.8%
98.3%
4Q 13
90.3%
92.0%
90.9%
89.9%
87.3%
94.2%
100.0%
89.0%
94.1%
89.7%
92.9%
96.1%
1Q 14
89.4%
93.0%
89.9%
88.9%
87.9%
95.9%
96.4% 100.0%
87.9%
62.9%
88.4%
96.3%
93.8%
1Q 12
$780
$629
$674
$844
$1,095
$1,243
$814
$657
$724
$609
$722
$1,404
$1,047
2Q 12
$765
$653
$671
$827
$1,027
$1,230
n.a.
$655
$703
$666
$705
$1,404
$1,047
3Q 12
$814
$729
$703
$888
$1,077
$1,248
$813
$580
$725
$685
$745
$1,404
$1,052
4Q 12
$785
$650
$681
$853
$1,076
$1,255
n.a.
$702
$708
$683
$724
$1,404
$1,055
1Q 13
$814
$738
$700
$891
$1,099
$1,271
n.a.
$580
$720
$688
$740
$1,402
$1,095
2Q 13
$808
$740
$698
$889
$1,056
$1,252
$799
$580
$720
$646
$740
$1,401
$1,033
3Q 13
$826
$751
$708
$908
$1,095
$1,229
$825
$580
$742
$711
$762
$1,404
$967
4Q 13
$842
$777
$721
$933
$1,123
$1,269
n.a.
$601
$757
$688
$772
$1,404
$1,093
$835
$601
$754
n.a.
1Q 14
$844
$770
$740
$918
$1,074
$1,273
1Q 12
$0.910
$1.309
$0.986
$0.847
$0.924
$1.340
$775
$776
$1,404
$1,105
$0.762
$0.846
$1.684
2Q 12
$0.893
$1.361
$0.981
$0.828
$0.853
$1.326
$1.101
$0.759 $0.832
$0.833
$0.825
$1.684
3Q 12
$0.957
$1.488
$1.023
$0.904
$0.909
$1.346
$1.101
$0.974 $0.980 $0.866
$0.787
$0.880
$1.684
$1.107
4Q 12
$0.916
$1.354
$0.992
$0.856
$0.893
$1.353
n.a.
1Q 13
$0.951
$1.507
$1.018
$0.893
$0.913
$1.370
n.a.
$0.813 $0.844
$0.786
$0.848
$1.684
$1.110
$0.980 $0.852
$0.792
$0.868
$1.682
2Q 13
$0.948
$1.510
$1.015
$0.892
$0.891
$1.152
$1.350
$0.956 $0.980 $0.853
$0.813
$0.871
$1.681
$1.086
3Q 13
$0.966
$1.533
$1.030
$0.911
4Q 13
$0.987
$1.587
$1.048
$0.932
$0.924
$1.324
$0.988 $0.980 $0.880
$1.017
$0.933
$1.368
1Q 14
$0.987
$1.572
$1.077
$0.921
$0.906
$1.372
1Q 12
-0.4%
1.0%
-0.7%
2Q 12
1.6%
11.6%
2.3%
-0.9%
2.6%
1.6%
n.a.
0.0%
1.6%
-3.0%
5.5%
n.a.
3.3%
$0.975 $0.762 $0.858 n.a.
$0.818
$0.895
$1.684
$1.016 $0.897
$0.866
$0.909
$1.684
$1.149
$1.000 $1.016 $0.894
$0.891
$0.911
$1.684
$1.162
-0.4%
-5.5%
-0.5%
n.a.
0.5%
-0.5%
11.1%
0.1%
8.3%
6.3%
n.a.
3Q 12
4.6%
7.5%
3.9%
4.9%
5.4%
3.4%
n.a.
0.0%
5.2%
-0.3%
4.7%
7.6%
-2.7%
4Q 12
-0.2%
3.9%
0.7%
-1.3%
1.5%
1.0%
n.a.
0.0%
-0.6%
0.7%
-0.4%
-0.5%
3.3%
1Q 13
0.1%
3.2%
0.5%
0.0%
-1.3%
2.3%
n.a.
0.0%
-0.7%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.1%
4.6%
2Q 13
2.4%
1.5%
2.2%
2.3%
4.2%
1.8%
n.a.
-3.2%
2.8%
0.5%
3.2%
-0.2%
-1.4%
3Q 13
1.2%
3.0%
0.7%
1.4%
1.6%
-1.6%
1.4%
0.0%
2.2%
3.9%
2.1%
0.0%
-8.1%
4Q 13
5.2%
7.7%
4.5%
5.8%
4.5%
1.1%
n.a.
3.6%
6.9%
3.6%
6.3%
0.0%
3.6%
1Q 14
3.8%
4.4%
5.9%
3.1%
-1.2%
0.1%
n.a.
3.6%
5.1%
12.5%
4.8%
0.1%
0.9%
1Q 12
0.8%
-3.5%
1.2%
0.6%
0.7%
-3.7%
n.a.
-9.5%
1.3%
4.7%
1.1%
n.a.
18.5%
2Q 12
11.2%
45.5%
12.3%
11.6%
-6.5%
44.8%
n.a.
-1.6%
2.1%
25.3%
3.4%
81.9%
25.4%
3Q 12
10.9%
18.0%
10.9%
10.8%
5.8%
28.2%
n.a.
5.6%
8.9%
10.0%
7.8%
53.2%
6.9%
ANNUAL
4Q 12
6.4%
13.4%
8.1%
4.9%
4.7%
16.2%
n.a.
-4.9%
3.7%
17.5%
4.5%
26.9%
6.1%
REVENUE
1Q 13
3.9%
10.9%
4.3%
3.5%
1.4%
14.0%
n.a.
9.5%
1.5%
8.4%
2.4%
21.2%
4.6%
CHANGE
2Q 13
1.7%
2.6%
1.1%
1.5%
4.9%
6.2%
n.a.
1.7%
1.4%
-2.8%
2.0%
8.7%
-10.4%
3Q 13
-0.3%
5.0%
-0.6%
-0.5%
1.3%
0.8%
2.1%
0.0%
-0.2%
3.9%
0.3%
2.7%
-9.8%
4Q 13
1.0%
4.2%
0.4%
1.9%
-3.3%
-1.4%
n.a.
8.5%
2.2%
-2.3%
1.8%
-2.2%
0.8%
1Q 14
-0.8%
2.4%
1.4%
-1.4%
-8.4%
0.1%
n.a.
3.6%
-0.4%
-24.6%
-0.5%
1.3%
-3.6%
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY Existing
Sampled
Percent
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
383
542
0.0%
2.1%
1Q 12
19,394
4,886
25.2%
555
1,466
0.0%
0.4%
2Q 12
19,394
4,746
24.5%
68
195
1,100
0.0%
0.4%
3Q 12
19,394
3,913
20.2%
0
0
3
1,118
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
19,394
4,630
23.9%
1Q 13
0
0
(76)
703
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
19,394
3,763
19.4%
2Q 13
0
0
(220)
(123)
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
19,394
3,910
20.2%
3Q 13
0
0
54
(253)
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
19,394
3,853
19.9%
4Q 13
221
221
(270)
(491)
1.1%
1.1%
4Q 13
19,615
3,770
19.2%
1Q 14
40
261
(142)
(585)
0.2%
1.3%
1Q 14
19,655
3,853
19.6%
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
1Q 12
0
393
2Q 12
0
68
3Q 12
0
4Q 12
© 2014 MPF Research
CHANGE
TAMPA BAY | 47
11 NORTH ST. PETERSBURG
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET 15,282 8,953 58.6%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
0 240 1.6% 129 383 0 33 427
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
95.1% 0.2 1.0 95.9% 90.2% 93.4%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$898 $0.999 0.3% 1.1% 6.0% ‐3.5% 1.2%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
0.5% 2.1% 8.0% ‐4.7% 1.8%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual
0.5k 0.0k
-1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 97%
Submarket
Metro
96% 95% 94% 93% 91% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 8%
Submarket
Metro
6% 4% 2%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
2Q 13
92%
REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1Q 13
-0.5k
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q 12
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q 12
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
2Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2014 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
628 376 93.7% ‐1.4
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
0% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 48
11 NORTH ST. PETERSBURG
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub# 11
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters Elan Gateway 11800 Dr Martin Luther King Jr St N, St. Petersburg, FL 33716
Developer Greystar
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish Conv entional
240
3
05/12 10/13 Total Units: 240
Sub# 11 11 11
Properties Under Construction Epic at Gateway Centre (The) 3115 Grand Av e, Pinellas Park, FL 33782 Azure 540 Trinity Ln N, St Petersburg, FL 33716 Ibis Walk 8701 Ibis Walk Pl, St. Petersburg, FL 33716
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
The Richman Group of Companies
Conv entional
320
4
03/13 09/14
Hines Interests
Conv entional
308
4
01/13 10/14
Grady Pridgen Inc
Conv entional
410
4
05/13 04/15
Total Units: 1,038
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 33702, 33703, 33709, 33714, 33716, 33781, 33782
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 49
11 NORTH ST. PETERSBURG
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
93.4%
n.a.
93.5%
93.1%
94.8%
94.8%
93.4%
92.9%
92.5%
n.a.
93.3%
96.9%
n.a.
2Q 12
94.5%
n.a.
94.6%
94.1%
96.2%
96.2%
94.3%
93.5%
93.8%
n.a.
94.3%
97.7%
n.a.
3Q 12
95.9%
n.a.
95.8%
95.7%
98.2%
98.4%
95.9%
94.0%
95.7%
n.a.
95.8%
98.2%
n.a.
4Q 12
94.7%
n.a.
94.9%
94.2%
96.2%
96.3%
94.3%
94.0%
93.8%
n.a.
94.5%
98.2%
n.a.
1Q 13
94.1%
n.a.
94.0%
94.0%
95.6%
95.5%
92.4%
93.9%
93.8%
n.a.
94.1%
94.5%
n.a.
2Q 13
95.3%
n.a.
95.1%
95.3%
96.8%
96.4%
92.4%
95.5%
95.6%
n.a.
95.3%
96.3%
n.a.
3Q 13
95.2%
n.a.
95.8%
94.7%
95.1%
95.8%
93.8%
95.6%
94.8%
n.a.
95.2%
96.3%
n.a.
4Q 13
94.9%
n.a.
95.0%
94.9%
94.9%
94.3%
93.2%
96.0%
95.1%
n.a.
94.8%
98.2%
n.a.
1Q 14
95.1%
n.a.
95.0%
95.2%
95.8%
95.9%
91.7%
96.6%
93.8%
n.a.
95.1%
96.3%
n.a.
1Q 12
$877
n.a.
$744
$944
$1,210
$996
$1,089
$787
$712
n.a.
$861
$1,248
n.a.
2Q 12
$882
n.a.
$750
$950
$1,201
$1,030
$1,000
$792
$735
n.a.
$863
$1,250
n.a.
3Q 12
$885
n.a.
$765
$932
$1,271
$1,049
$1,088
$767
$712
n.a.
$868
$1,254
n.a.
4Q 12
$900
n.a.
$773
$953
$1,263
$1,040
$1,107
$795
$732
n.a.
$886
$1,208
n.a.
1Q 13
$902
n.a.
$771
$962
$1,231
$1,019
$1,102
$797
$719
n.a.
$885
$1,282
n.a.
2Q 13
$913
n.a.
$778
$972
$1,273
$1,045
$1,091
$820
$739
n.a.
$898
$1,259
n.a.
3Q 13
$911
n.a.
$784
$963
$1,256
$1,025
$1,075
$807
$777
n.a.
$895
$1,259
n.a.
4Q 13
$897
n.a.
$779
$953
$1,211
$1,023
$982
$839
$761
n.a.
$878
$1,315
n.a.
1Q 14
$898
n.a.
$775
$956
$1,237
$1,062
$976
$829
$734
n.a.
$882
$1,259
n.a.
1Q 12
$0.975
n.a.
$1.055
$0.937
$0.911
$0.994
$1.100 $1.026 $0.787
n.a.
$0.960
$1.278
n.a.
2Q 12
$0.978
n.a.
$1.058
$0.941
$0.915
$1.035
$1.037 $1.022 $0.794
n.a.
$0.961
$1.281
n.a.
3Q 12
$0.981
n.a.
$1.080
$0.922
$0.961
$1.053
$1.099 $0.984 $0.788
n.a.
$0.966
$1.285
n.a.
4Q 12
$0.998
n.a.
$1.093
$0.947
$0.952
$1.038
$1.118 $1.028 $0.810
n.a.
$0.986
$1.238
n.a.
1Q 13
$0.987
n.a.
$1.081
$0.940
$0.932
$1.010
$1.113 $1.023 $0.777
n.a.
$0.971
$1.314
n.a.
2Q 13
$1.004
n.a.
$1.096
$0.956
$0.963
$1.036
$1.102 $1.052 $0.822
n.a.
$0.991
$1.290
n.a.
3Q 13
$0.999
n.a.
$1.104
$0.945
$0.951
$1.017
$1.086 $1.035 $0.856
n.a.
$0.986
$1.290
n.a.
4Q 13
$0.996
n.a.
$1.102
$0.944
$0.926
$1.020
$1.019 $1.080 $0.832
n.a.
$0.979
$1.347
n.a.
1Q 14
$0.999
n.a.
$1.098
$0.947
$0.947
$1.058
$1.013 $1.068 $0.809
n.a.
$0.985
$1.290
n.a.
1Q 12
2.3%
n.a.
2.6%
2.7%
-1.1%
-2.9%
2.6%
9.7%
-2.9%
n.a.
2.3%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
6.0%
n.a.
4.4%
7.8%
2.4%
1.3%
10.8%
8.0%
7.7%
n.a.
6.6%
-0.9%
n.a.
3Q 12
4.6%
n.a.
6.0%
3.3%
6.0%
4.0%
7.6%
6.5%
0.0%
n.a.
4.9%
0.0%
n.a.
4Q 12
3.8%
n.a.
4.9%
2.6%
5.7%
2.0%
2.4%
7.0%
3.7%
n.a.
4.3%
-3.7%
n.a.
1Q 13
1.8%
n.a.
2.2%
1.4%
2.0%
4.2%
1.1%
0.2%
0.5%
n.a.
1.7%
2.8%
n.a.
2Q 13
2.7%
n.a.
3.5%
1.7%
4.4%
3.2%
2.7%
4.3%
-1.1%
n.a.
2.8%
0.7%
n.a.
3Q 13
2.8%
n.a.
2.7%
3.4%
0.6%
-0.3%
-1.2%
5.2%
9.3%
n.a.
3.0%
0.4%
n.a.
4Q 13
1.4%
n.a.
2.6%
1.2%
-1.7%
-0.9%
-5.2%
6.1%
3.5%
n.a.
0.9%
8.9%
n.a.
1Q 14
1.1%
n.a.
1.8%
0.6%
1.1%
4.0%
-6.6%
3.0%
-1.4%
n.a.
1.3%
-1.8%
n.a.
1Q 12
2.5%
n.a.
2.5%
3.2%
-0.9%
-3.2%
1.0%
10.2%
-0.5%
n.a.
2.4%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
8.0%
n.a.
6.6%
9.3%
5.6%
6.4%
9.9%
7.7%
11.0%
n.a.
7.5%
25.3%
n.a.
3Q 12
7.1%
n.a.
8.3%
5.7%
10.8%
9.9%
8.8%
7.7%
1.5%
n.a.
6.3%
27.4%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 12
4.9%
n.a.
6.7%
3.1%
6.6%
4.1%
0.6%
9.0%
4.2%
n.a.
5.1%
5.2%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 13
2.5%
n.a.
2.7%
2.3%
2.8%
4.9%
0.1%
1.2%
1.8%
n.a.
2.5%
0.4%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 13
3.5%
n.a.
4.0%
2.9%
5.0%
3.4%
0.8%
6.3%
0.7%
n.a.
3.8%
-0.7%
n.a.
3Q 13
2.1%
n.a.
2.7%
2.4%
-2.5%
-2.9%
-3.3%
6.8%
8.4%
n.a.
2.4%
-1.5%
n.a.
4Q 13
1.6%
n.a.
2.7%
1.9%
-3.0%
-2.9%
-6.3%
8.1%
4.8%
n.a.
1.2%
8.9%
n.a.
1Q 14
2.1%
n.a.
2.8%
1.8%
1.3%
4.4%
-7.3%
5.7%
-1.4%
n.a.
2.3%
0.0%
n.a.
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY Existing
Sampled
Percent
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
120
(26)
137
0.0%
0.8%
1Q 12
15,042
8,906
59.2%
120
145
309
0.0%
0.8%
2Q 12
15,042
7,945
52.8%
0
120
215
428
0.0%
0.8%
3Q 12
15,042
8,774
58.3%
4Q 12
0
0
(198)
145
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
15,042
8,813
58.6%
1Q 13
0
0
(69)
104
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
15,042
8,841
58.8%
2Q 13
0
0
198
137
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
15,042
9,185
61.1%
3Q 13
0
0
(16)
(98)
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
15,042
9,150
60.8%
4Q 13
240
240
221
322
1.6%
1.6%
4Q 13
15,282
8,913
58.3%
1Q 14
0
240
33
427
0.0%
1.6%
1Q 14
15,282
8,953
58.6%
Period
Qtrly
Ann
1Q 12
0
2Q 12
0
3Q 12
© 2014 MPF Research
CHANGE
TAMPA BAY | 50
12 LARGO/SEMINOLE
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET 11,457 5,493 47.9%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 21 358
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
95.0% 0.1 2.7 95.4% 88.6% 92.2%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$802 $0.960 1.3% 4.8% 5.0% ‐5.7% 0.6%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
1.4% 7.5% 7.5% ‐8.8% 1.4%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual
0.5k 0.0k
-1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 97%
Submarket
Metro
96% 95% 94% 93% 91% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 6%
Submarket
Metro
4% 2% 0%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
2Q 13
92%
REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1Q 13
-0.5k
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q 12
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q 12
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
2Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2014 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
483 367 94.3% ‐0.7
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
-2% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 51
12 LARGO/SEMINOLE
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties completed during the last four quarters.
Sub# 12 12
Properties Under Construction Pinellas Heights
Norstar Dev elopment USA LP/Pinellas
11411 Ulmerton Rd, Largo, FL 33778
Courtney at Bay Pines (The) 4652 Miramar Dr, St. Petersburg, FL 33708
County Housing Authority ContraVest Dev /Northwestern Mutual
Senior
153
4
08/12 04/14
Conv entional
330
4
07/12 07/14
Total Units: 483
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 33708, 33770, 33771, 33772, 33773, 33774, 33776, 33777, 33778, 33785, 33786
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 52
12 LARGO/SEMINOLE
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
93.2%
92.1%
94.0%
92.5%
91.9%
n.a.
n.a.
93.3%
93.0%
96.0%
92.9%
n.a.
96.5%
2Q 12
93.9%
89.5%
94.8%
93.1%
92.7%
n.a.
n.a.
94.6%
93.8%
92.1%
93.6%
n.a.
97.3%
3Q 12
94.4%
86.8%
95.7%
92.8%
93.7%
n.a.
n.a.
95.9%
93.7%
95.7%
94.7%
n.a.
91.6%
4Q 12
94.6%
94.7%
95.6%
93.7%
92.1%
n.a.
n.a.
93.4%
95.0%
95.0%
94.1%
n.a.
99.6%
1Q 13
92.3%
86.8%
93.6%
91.2%
89.8%
n.a.
n.a.
91.4%
92.5%
93.5%
92.1%
n.a.
94.2%
2Q 13
94.2%
92.1%
95.3%
93.0%
92.6%
n.a.
n.a.
92.4%
94.8%
93.5%
93.7%
n.a.
99.0%
3Q 13
95.4%
89.5%
95.9%
94.7%
96.0%
n.a.
n.a.
93.4%
96.1%
96.4%
95.0%
n.a.
99.6%
4Q 13
94.9%
94.7%
95.5%
94.8%
91.7%
n.a.
n.a.
94.6%
94.9%
95.3%
94.4%
n.a.
99.0%
1Q 14
95.0%
92.1%
95.7%
95.2%
91.3%
n.a.
n.a.
94.2%
95.3%
95.3%
94.7%
n.a.
98.7%
1Q 12
$729
$602
$632
$802
$1,003
n.a.
n.a.
$687
$745
$736
$711
n.a.
$906
2Q 12
$743
$599
$637
$827
$1,019
n.a.
n.a.
$703
$760
$707
$730
n.a.
$864
3Q 12
$737
$559
$634
$825
$1,028
n.a.
n.a.
$720
$745
$714
$723
n.a.
$859
4Q 12
$746
$579
$646
$826
$1,006
n.a.
n.a.
$735
$749
$761
$734
n.a.
$859
1Q 13
$767
$595
$658
$854
$1,024
n.a.
n.a.
$741
$776
$765
$759
n.a.
$846
2Q 13
$778
$634
$666
$865
$1,044
n.a.
n.a.
$738
$793
$756
$765
n.a.
$912
3Q 13
$768
$557
$658
$872
$1,018
n.a.
n.a.
$762
$769
$782
$753
n.a.
$917
4Q 13
$789
$625
$672
$877
$1,087
n.a.
n.a.
$761
$802
$755
$773
n.a.
$936
1Q 14
$802
$595
$693
$881
$1,101
n.a.
n.a.
$763
$817
$803
$790
n.a.
$925
1Q 12
$0.870
$1.049
$0.947
$0.810
$0.824
n.a.
n.a.
$0.924 $0.854
$0.859
$0.852
n.a.
$1.032
2Q 12
$0.886
$1.044
$0.955
$0.835
$0.838
n.a.
n.a.
$0.947 $0.871
$0.826
$0.875
n.a.
$0.984
3Q 12
$0.886
$0.974
$0.952
$0.833
$0.851
n.a.
n.a.
$0.970 $0.862
$0.834
$0.876
n.a.
$0.979
4Q 12
$0.889
$1.009
$0.967
$0.834
$0.827
n.a.
n.a.
$0.989 $0.858
$0.888
$0.880
n.a.
$0.978
1Q 13
$0.900
$1.036
$0.979
$0.849
$0.830
n.a.
n.a.
$0.998 $0.872
$0.893
$0.894
n.a.
$0.963
2Q 13
$0.912
$1.104
$0.989
$0.861
$0.846
n.a.
n.a.
$0.994 $0.891
$0.882
$0.899
n.a.
$1.038
3Q 13
$0.910
$0.971
$0.980
$0.867
$0.826
n.a.
n.a.
$1.025 $0.875
$0.913
$0.896
n.a.
$1.044
4Q 13
$0.928
$1.089
$1.002
$0.872
$0.880
n.a.
n.a.
$1.025 $0.901
$0.882
$0.913
n.a.
$1.066
1Q 14
$0.960
$1.037
$1.046
$0.899
$0.892
n.a.
n.a.
$1.028 $0.939
$0.938
$0.949
n.a.
$1.054
1Q 12
-0.1%
6.2%
1.9%
-2.3%
0.5%
n.a.
n.a.
-3.1%
0.8%
2.5%
-1.7%
n.a.
10.8%
2Q 12
1.5%
1.1%
1.2%
1.4%
3.1%
n.a.
n.a.
-1.9%
3.3%
-5.1%
1.2%
n.a.
3.5%
3Q 12
1.2%
-5.0%
1.5%
0.1%
5.8%
n.a.
n.a.
-0.5%
2.4%
-4.0%
1.6%
n.a.
-1.6%
4Q 12
4.9%
-0.2%
6.5%
3.8%
1.3%
n.a.
n.a.
8.3%
3.0%
9.4%
5.0%
n.a.
4.2%
1Q 13
3.3%
-1.2%
3.7%
3.2%
2.2%
n.a.
n.a.
4.0%
3.0%
4.0%
4.7%
n.a.
-6.6%
2Q 13
4.4%
5.7%
4.7%
4.6%
2.8%
n.a.
n.a.
5.0%
4.0%
6.8%
4.3%
n.a.
5.5%
3Q 13
4.0%
-0.3%
3.7%
5.5%
-0.4%
n.a.
n.a.
5.7%
2.9%
9.6%
3.7%
n.a.
6.7%
4Q 13
5.0%
7.9%
3.8%
5.4%
7.5%
n.a.
n.a.
3.6%
6.0%
-0.7%
4.4%
n.a.
9.0%
1Q 14
4.8%
0.0%
5.6%
3.0%
7.8%
n.a.
n.a.
3.0%
5.4%
5.0%
4.2%
n.a.
9.4%
1Q 12
3.3%
6.2%
4.7%
1.7%
6.2%
n.a.
n.a.
-3.3%
5.8%
2.5%
2.0%
n.a.
12.3%
2Q 12
6.8%
-1.5%
5.9%
7.0%
12.0%
n.a.
n.a.
-0.6%
10.4%
-5.4%
6.8%
n.a.
7.1%
3Q 12
1.6%
-12.9%
2.1%
-0.2%
8.5%
n.a.
n.a.
1.5%
2.2%
-4.3%
2.7%
n.a.
-8.1%
ANNUAL
4Q 12
6.6%
-2.9%
8.2%
5.9%
1.8%
n.a.
n.a.
9.0%
5.0%
10.2%
6.4%
n.a.
6.5%
REVENUE
1Q 13
2.4%
-6.5%
3.3%
1.9%
0.1%
n.a.
n.a.
2.1%
2.5%
1.5%
3.9%
n.a.
-8.9%
CHANGE
2Q 13
4.7%
8.3%
5.2%
4.5%
2.7%
n.a.
n.a.
2.8%
5.0%
8.2%
4.4%
n.a.
7.2%
3Q 13
5.0%
2.4%
3.9%
7.4%
1.9%
n.a.
n.a.
3.2%
5.3%
10.3%
4.0%
n.a.
14.7%
4Q 13
5.3%
7.9%
3.7%
6.5%
7.1%
n.a.
n.a.
4.8%
5.9%
-0.4%
4.7%
n.a.
8.4%
1Q 14
7.5%
5.3%
7.7%
7.0%
9.3%
n.a.
n.a.
5.8%
8.2%
6.8%
6.8%
n.a.
13.9%
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY Existing
Sampled
Percent
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
1Q 12
0
0
27
365
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 12
11,457
5,549
48.4%
2Q 12
0
0
72
467
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 12
11,457
5,549
48.4%
3Q 12
0
0
54
35
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 12
11,457
5,229
45.6%
4Q 12
0
0
22
165
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
11,457
5,549
48.4%
1Q 13
0
0
(231)
(113)
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
11,457
5,712
49.9%
2Q 13
0
0
242
31
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
11,457
5,849
51.1%
3Q 13
0
0
130
127
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
11,457
5,536
48.3%
4Q 13
0
0
(51)
38
0.0%
0.0%
4Q 13
11,457
5,494
48.0%
1Q 14
0
0
21
358
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 14
11,457
5,493
47.9%
© 2014 MPF Research
CHANGE
TAMPA BAY | 53
13 CLEARWATER
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET 17,536 8,349 47.6%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
0 108 0.6% 37 108 0 47 213
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
95.3% 0.3 0.5 95.3% 88.4% 93.4%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$835 $0.922 1.8% 1.9% 4.6% ‐5.2% 0.7%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
2.1% 2.4% 5.9% ‐8.4% 1.6%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
0 61 95.6% 0.3
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual
0.5k 0.0k
-1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 97%
Submarket
Metro
96% 95% 94% 93% 92%
REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1Q 13
-0.5k
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q 12
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q 12
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
2Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2014 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
91% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 5%
Submarket
Metro
4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 54
13 CLEARWATER
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub# 13
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters Amalfi at Clearwater (The) 106 Hampton Rd, Clearwater, FL 33759
Developer The Richman Group of Companies
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish Conv entional
108
3
03/12 04/13
Total Units: 108
Sub# 13
Properties Under Construction Gateway North 2681 Roosev elt Blv d, Clearwater, FL 33760
Developer Pollack Shores Real Estate Group
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish Conv entional
342
3
10/13 04/15
Total Units: 342
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 33755, 33756, 33759, 33760, 33761, 33762, 33763, 33764, 33765, 33767, 34695
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 55
13 CLEARWATER
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
94.5%
94.4%
94.8%
94.4%
93.7%
93.6%
96.4%
94.5%
94.4%
88.5%
94.5%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
94.7%
94.4%
94.5%
94.8%
94.9%
93.3%
96.0%
93.5%
96.3%
84.7%
94.7%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
94.7%
94.4%
94.9%
94.6%
94.2%
90.0%
95.6%
94.1%
95.7%
95.4%
94.7%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
94.2%
97.2%
94.3%
94.3%
93.3%
93.0%
94.6%
93.5%
95.1%
88.5%
94.2%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
94.8%
94.4%
95.2%
94.9%
92.3%
93.5%
96.3%
95.1%
94.8%
89.4%
94.8%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
95.2%
94.4%
95.2%
95.0%
96.2%
92.8%
94.3%
94.3%
96.9%
87.0%
95.2%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
94.5%
97.2%
94.2%
94.7%
95.0%
92.1%
93.7%
94.8%
95.1%
88.4%
94.5%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
95.0%
91.7%
95.1%
95.1%
94.1%
94.0%
93.6%
95.9%
95.1%
90.7%
95.0%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
95.3%
91.7%
95.8%
95.1%
93.8%
91.0%
96.7%
96.0%
95.3%
87.0%
95.3%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
$806
$472
$691
$865
$1,059
$1,063
$1,060
$822
$689
$715
$806
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
$803
$515
$693
$862
$1,088
$1,037
$1,034
$800
$713
$621
$803
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
$809
$472
$698
$871
$1,121
$1,096
$1,069
$811
$706
$716
$809
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
$807
$518
$700
$867
$1,078
$1,004
$1,049
$820
$708
$698
$807
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
$825
$515
$712
$887
$1,070
$1,065
$1,149
$830
$717
$702
$825
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
$836
$515
$706
$909
$1,131
$1,115
$1,110
$825
$749
$695
$836
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
$837
$525
$721
$896
$1,126
$1,132
$1,094
$855
$740
$694
$837
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
$827
$515
$712
$886
$1,103
$1,109
$1,059
$840
$732
$732
$827
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
$835
$585
$724
$899
$1,063
$1,125
$1,100
$842
$755
$701
$835
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
$0.884
$1.026
$0.960
$0.852
$0.814
$0.979
$1.047 $0.960 $0.770
$0.789
$0.884
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
$0.888
$1.120
$0.962
$0.851
$0.831
$0.955
$1.020 $0.939 $0.805
$0.703
$0.888
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
$0.898
$1.026
$0.970
$0.859
$0.850
$1.005
$1.055 $0.953 $0.795
$0.810
$0.898
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
$0.887
$1.126
$0.971
$0.847
$0.807
$0.921
$1.036 $0.968 $0.784
$0.771
$0.887
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
$0.901
$1.120
$0.982
$0.867
$0.818
$0.977
$1.134 $0.970 $0.785
$0.794
$0.901
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
$0.919
$1.120
$0.977
$0.893
$0.863
$1.023
$1.095 $0.963 $0.834
$0.786
$0.919
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
$0.921
$1.141
$0.999
$0.882
$0.865
$1.038
$1.080 $1.004 $0.816
$0.785
$0.921
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
$0.906
$1.120
$0.984
$0.869
$0.848
$1.017
$1.046 $0.987 $0.800
$0.828
$0.906
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
$0.922
$1.272
$1.007
$0.888
$0.828
$1.043
$1.086 $0.989 $0.832
$0.793
$0.922
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
1.1%
-8.3%
0.1%
2.0%
0.5%
6.2%
12.3%
-1.1%
-1.9%
6.1%
1.1%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
1.3%
-4.8%
2.0%
1.4%
-1.7%
-1.9%
1.9%
2.5%
2.1%
-10.9%
1.3%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
3.2%
-12.8%
3.7%
3.0%
2.9%
12.0%
1.1%
3.4%
1.8%
2.5%
3.2%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
0.9%
0.6%
0.6%
1.1%
1.3%
-3.3%
2.2%
-0.5%
3.1%
-3.4%
0.9%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
2.4%
9.1%
2.4%
2.3%
2.4%
-2.0%
8.3%
1.0%
2.8%
-3.5%
2.4%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
3.7%
0.0%
1.1%
5.2%
6.2%
5.4%
7.3%
2.3%
2.8%
11.8%
3.7%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
3.0%
11.2%
3.3%
2.9%
2.4%
3.3%
2.3%
5.4%
1.3%
-3.1%
3.0%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
3.2%
-0.6%
2.0%
3.5%
6.2%
10.4%
1.0%
4.4%
1.0%
4.8%
3.2%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
1.9%
13.6%
2.6%
1.5%
0.8%
3.6%
-4.2%
2.1%
3.8%
-0.1%
1.9%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
2.6%
-5.6%
1.6%
3.6%
1.6%
7.0%
15.0%
0.2%
-0.3%
7.5%
2.6%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
4.1%
-7.6%
3.7%
5.0%
1.7%
-3.3%
2.8%
4.8%
7.2%
-16.5%
4.1%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
5.2%
-10.1%
5.5%
5.2%
3.7%
7.5%
-1.7%
6.1%
4.9%
10.4%
5.2%
n.a.
n.a. n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 12
1.2%
0.6%
0.6%
1.8%
1.9%
-1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
2.9%
-2.4%
1.2%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 13
2.7%
9.1%
2.8%
2.8%
1.0%
-2.1%
8.2%
1.6%
3.2%
-2.6%
2.7%
n.a.
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 13
4.2%
0.0%
1.8%
5.4%
7.5%
4.9%
5.6%
3.1%
3.4%
14.1%
4.2%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
2.8%
14.0%
2.6%
3.0%
3.2%
5.4%
0.4%
6.1%
0.7%
-10.1%
2.8%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
4.0%
-6.1%
2.8%
4.3%
7.0%
11.4%
0.0%
6.8%
1.0%
7.0%
4.0%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
2.4%
10.9%
3.2%
1.7%
2.3%
1.1%
-3.8%
3.0%
4.3%
-2.5%
2.4%
n.a.
n.a.
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY Existing
Sampled
Percent
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
1Q 12
0
0
94
248
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 12
17,428
8,146
46.7%
2Q 12
0
0
30
364
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 12
17,428
8,194
47.0%
3Q 12
0
0
(1)
292
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 12
17,428
8,013
46.0%
4Q 12
0
0
(83)
57
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
17,428
7,466
42.8%
1Q 13
0
0
112
50
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
17,428
7,920
45.4%
2Q 13
108
108
188
207
0.6%
0.6%
2Q 13
17,536
8,057
45.9%
3Q 13
0
108
(126)
78
0.0%
0.6%
3Q 13
17,536
8,625
49.2%
4Q 13
0
108
108
291
0.0%
0.6%
4Q 13
17,536
8,381
47.8%
1Q 14
0
108
47
213
0.0%
0.6%
1Q 14
17,536
8,349
47.6%
© 2014 MPF Research
CHANGE
TAMPA BAY | 56
14 NORTH PINELLAS COUNTY
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
All Other Submarkets
Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
SUBMARKET 9,217 4,999 54.2%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
0 36 0.4% 18 62 0 ‐57 20
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
94.5% ‐0.6 ‐0.2 95.7% 92.4% 94.6%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$920 $0.913 1.9% 6.6% 6.6% ‐8.6% 1.4%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
1.3% 6.4% 7.1% ‐10.6% 1.7%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
0 41 95.0% 0.5
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual
0.5k 0.0k
-1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 97%
Submarket
Metro
96% 95% 94% 93% 92%
REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
1Q 13
-0.5k
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
4Q 12
Quarterly
1.0k
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
3Q 12
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
2Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT
© 2014 MPF Research
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
91% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 8%
Submarket
Metro
6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 57
14 NORTH PINELLAS COUNTY
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub# 14
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters Sunrise Place 802 Mango St, Tarpon Springs, FL 34689
Developer Tarpon Springs Housing Authority
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish Affordable
36
2
07/12 07/13
Total Units: 36
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 34677, 34681, 34683, 34684, 34685, 34688, 34689, 34698
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 58
14 NORTH PINELLAS COUNTY
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
95.1%
93.8%
94.7%
95.9%
93.7%
95.4%
94.9%
97.3%
90.0%
n.a.
95.1%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
94.1%
93.8%
93.7%
94.3%
94.3%
94.7%
93.1%
96.0%
92.7%
n.a.
94.1%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
94.5%
93.8%
94.3%
94.5%
95.0%
96.2%
92.4%
95.7%
93.1%
n.a.
94.5%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
95.7%
100.0%
95.9%
95.6%
95.4%
96.9%
94.4%
96.9%
92.9%
n.a.
95.7%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
94.7%
93.8%
94.9%
94.8%
93.9%
95.4%
93.4%
96.2%
93.2%
n.a.
94.7%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
95.6%
93.8%
95.7%
95.6%
95.5%
96.4%
95.2%
96.1%
93.2%
n.a.
95.6%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
95.3%
100.0%
95.3%
95.6%
94.7%
96.2%
94.5%
96.2%
93.1%
n.a.
95.3%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
95.1%
93.8%
94.5%
95.5%
95.2%
95.8%
94.0%
97.9%
91.1%
n.a.
95.1%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
94.5%
100.0%
93.7%
94.8%
94.9%
95.7%
94.7%
94.2%
91.1%
n.a.
94.5%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
$874
$629
$734
$893
$1,091
$914
$916
$788
$617
n.a.
$874
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
$860
$581
$702
$876
$1,129
$907
$909
$764
$654
n.a.
$860
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
$880
$696
$732
$889
$1,109
$943
$933
$784
$675
n.a.
$880
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
$876
$572
$725
$888
$1,111
$891
$949
$819
$699
n.a.
$876
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
$860
$616
$717
$874
$1,072
$870
$934
$800
$699
n.a.
$860
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
$885
$595
$736
$895
$1,118
$925
$948
$800
$710
n.a.
$885
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
$907
$701
$759
$922
$1,126
$941
$968
$848
$706
n.a.
$907
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
$903
$601
$754
$911
$1,167
$949
$964
$826
$719
n.a.
$903
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
$920
$686
$751
$941
$1,183
$962
$987
$839
$740
n.a.
$920
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
$0.870
$1.102
$0.965
$0.844
$0.827
$0.855
$0.898 $0.901 $0.726
n.a.
$0.870
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
$0.861
$1.018
$0.925
$0.831
$0.858
$0.849
$0.891 $0.875 $0.769
n.a.
$0.861
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
$0.869
$1.219
$0.964
$0.836
$0.845
$0.882
$0.914 $0.799 $0.795
n.a.
$0.869
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
$0.865
$1.002
$0.954
$0.835
$0.846
$0.834
$0.930 $0.835 $0.822
n.a.
$0.865
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
$0.849
$1.079
$0.943
$0.822
$0.816
$0.813
$0.916 $0.816 $0.822
n.a.
$0.849
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
$0.874
$1.042
$0.968
$0.842
$0.852
$0.865
$0.929 $0.815 $0.835
n.a.
$0.874
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
$0.896
$1.228
$0.999
$0.867
$0.858
$0.880
$0.949 $0.865 $0.830
n.a.
$0.896
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
$0.896
$1.053
$0.991
$0.855
$0.891
$0.891
$0.945 $0.842 $0.846
n.a.
$0.896
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
$0.913
$1.201
$0.987
$0.883
$0.903
$0.903
$0.968 $0.855 $0.871
n.a.
$0.913
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
2.8%
3.6%
4.3%
3.1%
0.3%
0.9%
6.3%
-0.3%
0.0%
n.a.
2.8%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
-0.5%
-8.8%
0.7%
-2.2%
2.3%
-5.9%
3.5%
-2.3%
8.6%
n.a.
-0.5%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
2.5%
7.2%
2.8%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
4.0%
2.6%
9.3%
n.a.
2.5%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 12
3.0%
-4.7%
5.3%
2.0%
2.8%
-4.1%
6.3%
7.8%
8.6%
n.a.
3.0%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 13
-0.6%
-2.1%
-2.0%
-0.8%
1.8%
-4.9%
2.0%
1.3%
9.4%
n.a.
-0.6%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 13
3.5%
2.4%
5.0%
3.1%
2.5%
1.9%
4.2%
3.2%
8.5%
n.a.
3.5%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
3.8%
0.7%
3.5%
4.0%
3.6%
0.9%
3.8%
8.2%
4.5%
n.a.
3.8%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
2.6%
5.1%
3.6%
2.0%
2.8%
4.8%
1.6%
0.9%
2.9%
n.a.
2.6%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
6.6%
11.4%
4.1%
7.5%
7.4%
9.0%
5.7%
4.8%
5.9%
n.a.
6.6%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
3.5%
3.6%
5.1%
4.3%
-0.5%
0.6%
7.7%
2.3%
0.6%
n.a.
3.5%
n.a.
n.a.
2Q 12
-1.4%
-8.8%
-0.4%
-3.1%
2.1%
-6.8%
2.6%
-2.3%
6.1%
n.a.
-1.4%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
1.5%
1.0%
2.0%
1.4%
1.1%
1.1%
0.4%
1.5%
12.1%
n.a.
1.5%
n.a.
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 12
3.9%
1.5%
7.2%
2.4%
3.0%
-2.6%
5.8%
7.7%
13.9%
n.a.
3.9%
n.a.
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 13
-1.0%
-2.1%
-1.8%
-1.9%
2.0%
-4.9%
0.5%
0.2%
12.6%
n.a.
-1.0%
n.a.
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 13
5.0%
2.4%
7.0%
4.4%
3.7%
3.6%
6.3%
3.3%
9.0%
n.a.
5.0%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
4.6%
6.9%
4.5%
5.1%
3.3%
0.9%
5.9%
8.7%
4.5%
n.a.
4.6%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
2.0%
-1.1%
2.2%
1.9%
2.6%
3.7%
1.2%
1.9%
1.1%
n.a.
2.0%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
6.4%
17.6%
2.9%
7.5%
8.4%
9.3%
7.0%
2.8%
3.8%
n.a.
6.4%
n.a.
n.a.
Existing
Sampled
Percent
Units
Units
Sampled
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND
Period
Qtrly
Ann
1Q 12
0
2Q 12
0
3Q 12
0
4Q 12
0
1Q 13
0
INVENTORY CHANGE
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
62
22
115
0.0%
0.7%
1Q 12
9,181
4,715
51.4%
62
(103)
(23)
0.0%
0.7%
2Q 12
9,181
4,903
53.4%
0
37
(108)
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 12
9,181
5,303
57.8%
0
101
67
0.0%
0.0%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
9,181
5,303
57.8%
0
(77)
(40)
0.0%
0.0%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
9,181
5,303
57.8%
2Q 13
0
0
93
153
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
9,181
5,303
57.8%
3Q 13
36
36
9
119
0.4%
0.4%
3Q 13
9,217
5,303
57.5%
4Q 13
0
36
(15)
(11)
0.0%
0.4%
4Q 13
9,217
4,999
54.2%
1Q 14
0
36
(57)
20
0.0%
0.4%
1Q 14
9,217
4,999
54.2%
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 59
15 WEST PASCO COUNTY/HERNANDO COUNTY
1Q 2014 Supply
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING Monthly Rent
Annual
0.8k
Annual Rent Change
0.6k
Occupancy
0.4k
Annual Occupancy Change
0.2k
Annual Supply
0.0k 1Q 12
Annual Demand
This Submarket
Quarterly
1.0k
All Other Submarkets
Quarterly
1.0k
SUBMARKET 9,237 4,636 50.2%
METRO 193,697 117,507 60.7%
0 0 0.0% 109 450 0 50 135
86 2,003 1.0% 2,186 3,747 1,392 ‐76 2,721
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual
0.5k 0.0k -0.5k
OCCUPANCY Current Rate Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak Five‐Year Trough Five‐Year Average
4Q 12
Demand
SUPPLY and DEMAND Quarterly Supply (units) Annual Supply (units) Annual Inventory Change Five‐Year Average Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Peak in Annual Supply (units) Five‐Year Trough in Annual Supply (units) Quarterly Demand (units) Annual Demand (units)
3Q 12
Metro
SNAPSHOT Existing Units Sampled Units Percent Sampled
2Q 12
93.4% 0.6 1.3 93.4% 88.4% 90.9%
94.2% 0.0 0.5 94.6% 90.3% 92.7%
$717 $0.797 2.2% 3.5% 4.8% ‐4.8% 0.1%
$893 $0.953 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% ‐4.0% 0.9%
-1.0k 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Occupancy 96%
Submarket
Metro
94% 92% 90%
RENT Monthly Rent Rent Per Square Foot Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change REVENUE CHANGE Quarterly Change Annual Change Five‐Year Peak in Annual Change Five‐Year Trough in Annual Change Five‐Year Average Annual Change
2.8% 4.8% 5.6% ‐4.6% 0.8%
0.1% 2.3% 4.5% ‐4.8% 1.5%
© 2014 MPF Research
1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
Annual Rent Change 6%
Submarket
Metro
4% 2% 0%
ONE‐YEAR FORECAST Annual Supply (units) Annual Demand (units) Occupancy Annual Occupancy Change
88%
0 34 93.7% 0.3
4,325 3,478 93.9% ‐0.3
-2% 1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
1Q 13
TAMPA BAY | 60
15 WEST PASCO COUNTY/HERNANDO COUNTY
1Q 2014
SUPPLY DETAILS AND MAP Sub#
Properties Completed in the Last Four Quarters
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
Developer
Property Type Units Stories Start Finish
No properties completed during the last four quarters.
Sub#
Properties Under Construction
No properties are currently under construction.
Completed Under Construction
ZIP Code List: 34601, 34602, 34604, 34606, 34607, 34608, 34609, 34610, 34613, 34614, 34637, 34638, 34652, 34653, 34654, 34655, 34661, 34667, 34668, 34669, 34679, 34690, 34691
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 61
15 WEST PASCO COUNTY/HERNANDO COUNTY
1Q 2014
HISTORICAL DATA
OCCUPANCY
MONTHLY RENT
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT
ANNUAL RENT CHANGE
Period
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
1Q 12
90.6%
81.3%
91.3%
90.9%
88.6%
90.7%
86.4%
91.7%
84.8%
n.a.
90.8%
87.3%
n.a.
2Q 12
92.2%
69.6%
91.9%
92.3%
92.9%
93.0%
93.2%
91.5%
86.3%
n.a.
92.2%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
90.4%
73.3%
88.9%
91.1%
92.7%
94.7%
87.7%
87.6%
85.3%
n.a.
90.5%
89.8%
n.a.
4Q 12
92.8%
95.8%
93.6%
92.6%
92.0%
94.6%
85.2%
92.2%
93.5%
n.a.
92.9%
92.2%
n.a.
1Q 13
92.1%
86.0%
93.2%
92.3%
89.0%
94.1%
79.7%
91.3%
93.8%
n.a.
92.1%
92.2%
n.a.
2Q 13
92.6%
86.0%
93.3%
93.0%
90.3%
94.2%
82.6%
92.2%
93.7%
n.a.
92.7%
92.2%
n.a.
3Q 13
93.2%
85.1%
93.5%
93.5%
92.1%
93.8%
88.6%
93.0%
100.0%
n.a.
93.1%
100.0%
n.a.
4Q 13
92.8%
87.8%
92.9%
93.3%
91.2%
93.0%
86.9%
93.3%
91.9%
n.a.
92.7%
100.0%
n.a.
1Q 14
93.4%
87.0%
93.1%
94.2%
91.2%
93.1%
87.3%
94.1%
93.5%
n.a.
93.4%
88.9%
n.a.
1Q 12
$685
$445
$594
$725
$810
$762
$644
$648
$614
n.a.
$685
$686
n.a.
2Q 12
$687
$440
$598
$705
$822
$759
$644
$636
$450
n.a.
$687
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
$682
$448
$597
$708
$801
$742
$695
$632
$630
n.a.
$680
$711
n.a.
4Q 12
$691
$524
$602
$723
$791
$748
$613
$671
$596
n.a.
$693
$666
n.a.
1Q 13
$675
$418
$590
$703
$785
$744
$621
$628
$614
n.a.
$675
$686
n.a.
2Q 13
$686
$432
$605
$717
$773
$774
$612
$628
$585
n.a.
$689
$635
n.a.
3Q 13
$710
$476
$636
$736
$834
$767
$734
$673
$490
n.a.
$712
$634
n.a.
4Q 13
$701
$503
$619
$740
$788
$759
$589
$681
$450
n.a.
$703
$596
n.a.
1Q 14
$717
$492
$638
$751
$807
$777
$634
$691
$468
n.a.
$718
$640
n.a.
1Q 12
$0.773
$1.354
$0.852
$0.748
$0.699
$0.771
$0.632 $0.796 $0.716
n.a.
$0.773
$0.763
n.a.
2Q 12
$0.763
$1.528
$0.839
$0.746
$0.710
$0.773
$0.632 $0.784 $0.583
n.a.
$0.763
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
$0.764
$1.555
$0.842
$0.746
$0.692
$0.756
$0.682 $0.791 $0.735
n.a.
$0.762
$0.789
n.a.
4Q 12
$0.763
$1.163
$0.847
$0.747
$0.683
$0.762
$0.602 $0.792 $0.696
n.a.
$0.765
$0.739
n.a.
1Q 13
$0.756
$1.453
$0.831
$0.743
$0.679
$0.758
$0.609 $0.785 $0.716
n.a.
$0.756
$0.762
n.a.
2Q 13
$0.765
$1.500
$0.849
$0.753
$0.668
$0.788
$0.600 $0.781 $0.666
n.a.
$0.769
$0.705
n.a.
3Q 13
$0.793
$1.398
$0.905
$0.755
$0.721
$0.780
$0.721 $0.817 $0.607
n.a.
$0.794
$0.729
n.a.
4Q 13
$0.784
$1.477
$0.883
$0.760
$0.681
$0.770
$0.578 $0.832 $0.583
n.a.
$0.786
$0.685
n.a.
1Q 14
$0.797
$1.429
$0.906
$0.770
$0.698
$0.788
$0.622 $0.836 $0.607
n.a.
$0.798
$0.736
n.a.
1Q 12
3.0%
11.6%
1.5%
3.4%
3.7%
1.3%
1.7%
4.5%
2.7%
n.a.
2.9%
4.9%
n.a.
2Q 12
1.7%
n.a.
3.7%
0.5%
2.5%
-1.0%
-0.7%
5.6%
0.0%
n.a.
1.7%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
4.8%
4.4%
5.6%
5.4%
1.4%
1.8%
6.4%
5.7%
16.7%
n.a.
3.9%
19.6%
n.a.
4Q 12
1.0%
4.2%
0.1%
1.9%
-1.5%
-0.7%
-3.2%
2.4%
2.8%
n.a.
0.9%
3.0%
n.a.
1Q 13
-0.3%
-1.9%
0.6%
0.0%
-3.0%
-1.7%
-3.6%
1.6%
0.0%
n.a.
-0.3%
-0.1%
n.a.
2Q 13
0.5%
0.0%
1.7%
1.9%
-6.0%
2.0%
-5.0%
-0.6%
0.0%
n.a.
0.5%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
2.0%
-8.1%
5.3%
-0.3%
3.9%
3.3%
5.6%
-0.5%
7.8%
n.a.
2.0%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
1.9%
3.2%
3.8%
1.5%
-0.4%
1.7%
-3.9%
2.8%
-2.3%
n.a.
1.9%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
3.5%
6.9%
5.8%
2.6%
2.8%
4.5%
2.2%
2.5%
-0.7%
n.a.
3.5%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 12
4.5%
-0.7%
2.9%
4.8%
7.6%
1.4%
13.9%
6.6%
-0.2%
n.a.
4.4%
7.0%
n.a.
2Q 12
3.3%
n.a.
5.0%
2.3%
4.4%
0.1%
-0.3%
6.1%
6.4%
n.a.
2.8%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 12
5.6%
-7.4%
5.1%
7.0%
3.2%
4.3%
3.8%
4.3%
20.2%
n.a.
4.5%
26.6%
n.a.
ANNUAL
4Q 12
5.1%
22.9%
4.9%
5.2%
2.5%
2.6%
-1.9%
5.8%
18.0%
n.a.
4.6%
16.1%
n.a.
REVENUE
1Q 13
1.2%
2.8%
2.5%
1.4%
-2.6%
1.7%
-10.3%
1.2%
9.0%
n.a.
1.0%
4.8%
n.a.
CHANGE
2Q 13
0.9%
16.4%
3.1%
2.6%
-8.6%
3.2%
-15.6%
0.1%
7.4%
n.a.
1.0%
n.a.
n.a.
3Q 13
4.8%
3.7%
9.9%
2.1%
3.3%
2.4%
6.5%
4.9%
22.5%
n.a.
4.6%
n.a.
n.a.
4Q 13
1.9%
-4.8%
3.1%
2.2%
-1.2%
0.1%
-2.2%
3.9%
-3.9%
n.a.
1.7%
n.a.
n.a.
1Q 14
4.8%
7.9%
5.7%
4.5%
5.0%
3.5%
9.8%
5.3%
-1.0%
n.a.
4.8%
n.a.
n.a.
SUPPLY
SUPPLY/ DEMAND
DEMAND
INVENTORY Existing
Sampled
Percent
Period
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Qtrly
Ann
Period
Units
Units
Sampled
1Q 12
300
300
364
377
3.4%
3.4%
1Q 12
9,087
5,219
57.4%
2Q 12
150
450
248
419
1.7%
5.1%
2Q 12
9,237
4,078
44.1%
3Q 12
0
450
(160)
418
0.0%
5.1%
3Q 12
9,237
4,388
47.5%
4Q 12
0
450
215
681
0.0%
5.1%
SAMPLE/
4Q 12
9,237
5,048
54.6%
1Q 13
0
150
(63)
259
0.0%
1.7%
EXISTING UNITS
1Q 13
9,237
4,460
48.3%
2Q 13
0
0
60
50
0.0%
0.0%
2Q 13
9,237
4,365
47.3%
3Q 13
0
0
49
279
0.0%
0.0%
3Q 13
9,237
4,745
51.4%
4Q 13
0
0
(31)
(3)
0.0%
0.0%
4Q 13
9,237
4,676
50.6%
1Q 14
0
0
50
135
0.0%
0.0%
1Q 14
9,237
4,636
50.2%
© 2014 MPF Research
CHANGE
TAMPA BAY | 62
MARKET CHARACTERISTICS
TAMPA BAY | 63
MARKET CHARACTERISTICS
1Q 2014
TAMPA BAY AREA EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY INDUSTRY (Annual Change in Non-Agricultural Wage and Salary Jobs in 000's) Annual Change Goods Producing
Total Jobs
% of Total
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
1Q14
1Q14
National % 1Q14
1.7
3.0
3.2
6.0
7.0
120.4
10.1%
11.9%
Mining/Logging/Const ruct ion
2.0
2.7
3.0
4.3
2.9
57.4
4.8%
4.4%
Manufact uring
-0.3
0.3
0.2
1.7
4.1
63.0
5.3%
7.5%
Service Providing
23.1
24.9
28.7
24.4
22.6
1,074.7
89.9%
88.1%
Trade/Transport at ion/Ut ilit ies
3.4
2.7
4.3
3.6
6.7
227.4
19.0%
18.7%
Informat ion
0.4
0.8
0.7
0.2
-0.1
26.0
2.2%
2.3%
Financial Act ivit ies
4.6
4.4
4.2
3.1
2.4
100.8
8.4%
6.4%
Professional/Business Services
7.2
9.9
10.0
10.2
10.0
205.6
17.2%
15.5%
Educat ion/Healt h Services
1.6
2.4
3.0
4.9
5.5
189.1
15.8%
15.9%
Leisure/Hospit alit y Services
4.9
4.7
5.1
1.7
-1.2
129.6
10.8%
10.3%
Ot her Services
0.7
1.1
1.4
0.6
0.0
41.4
3.5%
4.0%
Government Total
40k
0.3
-1.1
0.0
0.1
-0.7
154.8
13.0%
14.9%
24.8
27.9
31.9
30.4
29.6
1,195.1
100.0%
100.0%
Unemployment Rate
Annual Employment Change
Metro
14%
20k
U.S. Average
12%
0k
10%
-20k
8%
-40k
6% 4%
-60k
2%
-80k 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
0%
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Source: BLS
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 64
MARKET CHARACTERISTICS
1Q 2014 TAMPA BAY AREA DEMOGRAPHICS One-Year Five-Year 2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Change
Change
Population, Age and Households Total population
2,842,878
2,824,724
2,789,116
2,747,272
2,733,761
2,723,949
0.6%
4.4%
Male
1,378,702
1,370,947
1,349,231
1,338,849
1,330,493
1,325,267
0.6%
4.0%
Female
1,464,176
1,453,777
1,439,885
1,408,423
1,403,268
1,398,682
0.7%
4.7%
Under 5 years
156,638
157,338
156,353
167,851
165,746
164,698
-0.4%
-4.9%
5 to 9 years
161,972
158,765
159,133
148,582
153,624
154,117
2.0%
5.1%
10 to 14 years
166,323
168,454
168,622
173,665
169,584
171,232
-1.3%
-2.9%
15 to 19 years
169,904
173,125
175,942
167,217
167,621
169,353
-1.9%
0.3%
20 to 24 years
177,616
173,655
172,640
160,211
156,630
157,376
2.3%
12.9%
25 to 34 years
351,958
348,478
336,514
356,497
336,616
334,633
1.0%
5.2%
35 to 44 years
359,473
361,161
364,917
367,538
371,611
381,876
-0.5%
-5.9%
45 to 54 years
413,119
418,493
416,014
400,617
399,424
392,467
-1.3%
5.3%
55 to 59 years
197,925
191,342
178,550
173,001
172,852
172,815
3.4%
14.5%
60 to 64 years
176,854
181,649
178,742
157,620
162,004
157,840
-2.6%
12.0%
65 to 74 years
272,127
254,498
250,658
223,762
226,246
217,951
6.9%
24.9%
75 to 84 years
163,913
165,056
160,599
177,526
176,520
175,668
-0.7%
-6.7%
85 years and ov er
75,056
72,710
70,432
73,185
75,283
73,923
3.2%
1.5%
41.8
41.6
41.3
40.6
41.1
40.8
0.5%
2.5%
1,131,949
1,110,034
1,116,299
1,091,408
1,098,922
1,110,634
2.0%
1.9%
High school graduate or higher
88.3%
87.5%
86.9%
86.5%
86.5%
86.5%
0.9%
2.1%
Bachelor's degree or higher
27.1%
24.9%
26.2%
24.6%
25.6%
26.1%
8.8%
3.8%
Median household income
$44,402
$43,832
$43,547
$44,061
$46,319
$46,607
1.3%
-4.7%
Less than high school graduate
$19,371
$18,051
$17,751
$18,277
$20,885
$19,567
7.3%
-1.0%
High school graduate
$25,782
$26,177
$25,496
$24,558
$26,058
$26,011
-1.5%
-0.9%
Some college or associate's degree
$31,527
$31,413
$30,925
$30,355
$32,002
$33,649
0.4%
-6.3%
Bachelor's degree
$44,975
$45,360
$44,433
$43,479
$42,766
$44,407
-0.8%
1.3%
Graduate or professional degree
$61,040
$60,257
$57,491
$57,304
$58,131
$58,350
1.3%
4.6%
Median age (years) Total households Educational Attainment
Income Levels
Source: BLS
© 2014 MPF Research
TAMPA BAY | 65
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS
TAMPA BAY | 66
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS
1Q 2014
SUPPLY AND DEMAND Multifamily Building Permits
Supply
Annual Quarterly *two- and 11-month totals ending in February 2014
6k
Quarterly
5k
5k
4k
4k
3k
3k
Annual
2k
2k
1k
1k 0k 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14*
0k 1Q 09
Annual Inventory Change
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 15
Existing Units 194k
3%
192k
2%
190k 188k
1%
186k 184k
0% 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
182k 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Demand Quarterly
6k
Annual
Forecast
4k 2k 0k -2k 1Q 09
1Q 10
© 2014 MPF Research
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 15
TAMPA BAY | 67
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS
1Q 2014
OCCUPANCY 96%
Occupancy
Occupancy Comparison Metro
97% 94%
93%
90%
91%
88% 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
Occupancy by Year Built 2000+ 1970s
100%
1990s Pre-1970
1Q 14
1Q 15
89%
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Occupancy by Building Height
1980s
99%
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
97%
95%
95%
90%
93%
85%
91% 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
89%
1Q 13
Occupancy by Unit Type Eff
98%
1 BR
2 BR
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual Occupancy Change Distribution of Properties
3 BR 8.5%
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
0
50
100
150
200
Occupancy Distribution of Properties 99.0%
0
© 2014 MPF Research
50
100
150
TAMPA BAY | 68
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS
1Q 2014
RENT CHANGE Annual Rent Change Comparison
Rent Change Quarterly
6%
Annual
Forecast
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 15
-6%
Annual Rent Change by Year Built 10%
2000+
1990s
1970s
Pre-1970
1Q 09
6%
1Q 10
1Q 11
U.S.
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
4% 2%
0%
0%
-5%
-2% -4% 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
-6%
1Q 13
Eff
15%
1 BR
2 BR
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual Rent Change Distribution of Properties
Annual Rent Change by Unit Type 3 BR
9.5%
1Q 09
1Q 10
© 2014 MPF Research
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
0
50
100
TAMPA BAY | 69
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS
1Q 2014
MONTHLY RENT Monthly Rent Comparison Metro
$1,200
South
Monthly Rent by Year Built $1,200
1980s
$1,000
$1,000
$900
$900
$800
$800
$700 $600 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Monthly Rent by Unit Type
Monthly Rent by Building Height $1,600
1990s Pre-1970
$1,100
$1,100
$700
2000+ 1970s
U.S.
High-Rise
Eff
$1,300
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
$1,100
$1,400
$900 $1,200
$700 $500
$1,000
$300 $800
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Monthly Rent Distribution of Properties $1,195
0
© 2014 MPF Research
50
100
150
200
TAMPA BAY | 70
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS
1Q 2014
RENT PER SQUARE FOOT Rent Per Square Foot by Year Built
Rent Per Square Foot Comparison Metro
$1.30
South
U.S.
$1.05
$1.20
Pre-1970
1980s
$0.85
$1.00
$0.75
$0.90 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Rent Per Square Foot by Building Height $1.50
1990s
1970s
$0.95
$1.10
$0.80
2000+
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
$0.65
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Rent Per Square Foot by Unit Type Eff
$1.40
High-Rise
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
$1.20 $1.30 $1.00 $1.10 $0.80 $0.90 $0.60 $0.70
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Rent Per Square Foot Distribution of Properties $1.200
0
© 2014 MPF Research
50
100
TAMPA BAY | 71
SUPPLEMENTARY MARKET STATISTICS
1Q 2014
CONCESSIONS Percent of Units Offering Concessions by Year Built
Concessions Percent of Units (L) Average Concession (R)
60%
12%
80%
50%
10%
40%
8%
60%
30%
6%
20%
4%
40%
10%
2% 0%
0% 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
1990s Pre-1970
1980s
20% 0%
1Q 14
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
Percent of Units Offering Concessions by Unit Type
Percent of Units Offering Concessions by Building Height 30%
2000+ 1970s
High-Rise
Eff
60%
1 BR
2 BR
1Q 14
3 BR
50% 40%
20%
30% 20%
10% 0%
10% 0% 1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
20%
1990s Pre-1970
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Average Concession by Building Height
Average Concession by Year Built 2000+ 1970s
1Q 09
1980s
15%
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
15%
10%
10%
5%
5% 0%
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
0%
1Q 13
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Average Concession by Unit Type Eff
20%
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
15% 10% 5% 0%
1Q 09
1Q 10
© 2014 MPF Research
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
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1Q 2014
REVENUE CHANGE Revenue Change Quarterly
6%
Annual
0%
U.S.
0%
-2%
-5%
-4% 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
1Q 15
-10%
Annual Revenue Change by Year Built 20%
2000+
1990s
1970s
Pre-1970
1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
Annual Revenue Change by Building Height
1980s
10%
10%
5%
0%
0%
-10%
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
High-Rise
-5% 1Q 09
1Q 10
1Q 11
1Q 12
1Q 13
1Q 14
-10%
1Q 13
Annual Revenue Change by Unit Type Eff
15%
1 BR
2 BR
2Q 13
3Q 13
4Q 13
1Q 14
Annual Revenue Change Distribution of Properties
3 BR
13.0%
0
50
100
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METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW MPF Research assesses recent general conditions in the apartment market and forecast market fundamentals for the coming year. Analysis focuses on investment opportunities and obstacles at the market and submarket level. Data in this report represent the best information available at publication time. Statistics will be similar to, but not necessarily identical to, information published in previous reports, as MPF Research continually updates its database and sometimes revises historical performances if information deemed more accurate becomes available. Identification of near‐term opportunities is not a blanket endorsement of activity within any market or submarket. Even in submarkets that appear promising overall, investment prospects are not uniformly favorable. Conversely, pockets of opportunity may exist in submarkets that are not positioned favorably overall. Investment decisions should be based on market research tailored to the unique potential of each property. Universe/Property Characteristics: Attached dwellings with five or more units leased through a central management company or agent. The universe includes properties originally developed for lease (traditional apartment communities) and multifamily units previously marketed as condominiums/townhomes which are now leased through a central management company or agent. Privately‐owned, off‐campus student housing properties are included in the existing unit count and sample, since the presence of these properties impacts the performances of traditional communities. Affordable housing properties are included in the existing unit count and sample, even if there are restrictions on resident incomes, as long as residents are paying their own rent. Existing Unit Stock: Existing unit stock is estimated starting with 2000 Census counts of rental communities featuring five or more units and then adding subsequent completions and conversions, and then subtracting units taken out of the rental pool for conversion or demolition. Thus, net inventory change does not solely reflect new construction. Submarkets: The submarkets established by MPF Research generally reflect areas featuring similar properties that compete within the same pool of resident prospects. Submarket boundaries are established considering logical obstacles like major roads or bodies of water, as well as geopolitical boundaries – such as those of cities, counties and school districts. MPF Research also considers socioeconomics and various apartment market data (e.g. property age and average rental rates). All submarkets follow ZIP code boundaries and meet certain thresholds for historical sample size. Metro Calculations: Metro calculations are based upon the actual sample received for the metro. Regional Calculations: Regional statistics are weighted by the existing unit estimates of each MPF Research top 100 metro in the particular region. MPF Research follows the U.S. Census Bureau’s definitions for regions (South, West, Midwest, Northeast). However, New York is excluded from Northeast and U.S. calculations. New York product is not representative of the country’s typical apartment selection, and weighted results for the roughly 2.1 million units that exist there would significantly shift both regional and national findings. U.S. Calculations: National statistics are weighted by the existing unit estimates of each Region (South, West, Midwest, Northeast), which are comprised of the MPF Research top 100 metros, excluding New York. (See note above on Regional Calculations for explanation.) Sample/Survey Process: Data collected in the MPF Research quarterly survey is collected through various sources. Where available, MPF Research can incorporate data from RealPage software products. MPF Research also collects data through direct relationships with management companies, through telephone surveys and through e‐mail surveys that are completed by apartment community owners or managers. Additionally, data is collected for each property’s individual floorplans, not by general floor plan category, which allows for more granular analysis.
ECONOMIC TRENDS Employment Change: The change in the number of jobs in a metropolitan area in the current quarter compared to a year earlier (Annual Employment Change), according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. MPF Research uses non‐seasonally adjusted data. Employment Change Forecast: Employment forecasts presented in MPF Research analysis are calculated by MPF Research after taking into account recent and expected employment trends. Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate represents the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively looking for work, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. MPF Research uses non‐seasonally adjusted data.
© 2014 MPF Research
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SUPPLY Multifamily Permits: The number of multifamily permits in properties with five or more units issued in a metropolitan statistical area, region or nationally, both for‐rent and for‐sale product. Multifamily permit data reported by MPF Research are based on our calculations of monthly U.S. Census Bureau data. Multifamily Starts: The number of multifamily units in properties with five or more units started in a region or nationally, both rental and owner‐occupied. Starts data reported by MPF Research is based on U.S. Census Bureau data. Under Construction: MPF Research considers properties to be under construction once ground has broken. Supply/Completions: All units in a property are counted as new supply during the quarter when the last apartments in the project are completed. Estimated Supply: Estimates are used only in markets where MPF Research does not offer project‐by‐project completion/construction listings. Supply estimates are proprietary calculations based on building permit levels. Removals: When identified, properties are removed from stock when they are converted from rental to condominiums or when they are demolished. Inventory Change Rate: Inventory change rate is calculated as net supply (supply less removals) as a percent of total existing units. Existing Units: MPF Research estimates existing units (stock) starting with rental properties with five or more units, according to the 2000 Census. Subsequent completions are added to that base stock, and units are subtracted from the stock for condominium conversions or demolitions. Thus, inventory change does not solely reflect new supply/completions.
DEMAND Demand/Absorption: MPF Research defines demand or absorption (the words are used interchangeably) as the change in physically occupied units (existing units multiplied by the occupancy rate) from one period to another. Net move‐outs (a synonym for negative demand) can occur simply because the size of the existing inventory shrinks due to condominium conversions or due to demolitions. Absorption of New Completions: Units are not counted as absorbed until the entire property is completed. Absorption Forecasts: A macro‐to‐micro approach is used in forecasting the number of units to be absorbed in a submarket. That is, the metro area absorption forecast is distributed among submarkets on the basis of the anticipated capture rate of each submarket which is determined by a multi‐variable sharing model. The sharing model incorporates recent trends as well upcoming supply/completions.
OCCUPANCY Occupancy: Occupancy is calculated as the percentage of existing stock physically occupied at a point in time based on sampled units of completed properties in a given metropolitan area in the current period. Preleased units are not part of the occupancy calculation, but newly completed properties in lease‐up are included. The term “stabilized occupancy” refers to a rate that excludes new completions in lease‐up. Occupancy Change: Occupancy change is calculated as the percentage point difference in occupancy rate from one period to another.
RENT Rental Rates: Unless otherwise noted, all rents reported are effective rental rates (asking rents net of concessions). Rental rates reflect a property’s rent structure at the point of time of the survey, than the property’s actual revenues (which would be shaped by rents in place when ongoing leases were signed). Rents are calculated for each property’s individual floor plans (e.g., one‐bedroom, 750 square feet), not by general floor plan category (e.g., one‐bedroom, 600 to 875 square feet). High and low rents for each floor plan are averaged. No adjustments are made for utilities or for specific amenities. Monthly Rent: The average rental rate charged for an apartment unit on a monthly basis, less concessions. MPF Research always reports monthly rent as the effective rate (asking rent less concessions).
© 2014 MPF Research
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Rent Per Square Foot: Average monthly rent divided by the average square footage of the apartment unit, less concessions. Rent Change: All rent change figures reported by MPF Research are based on same‐store samples as opposed to total samples, unless otherwise noted. Same‐store rent change calculations compare rents for the same specific group of properties between two points in time. Examination of same‐store rent change eliminates the misrepresentation of market conditions that can result from sampling differences in two reporting periods. Concessions: Concessions include one‐time, months free and prorated discounts. Concessions are collected at the individual floor plan level where applicable. Units Offering Concessions: The percent of units offering concessions.
REVENUE Revenue Change: All revenue change calculations are derived by adding the occupancy change (total sample) plus the same‐store rent change figures for the time period being reported (quarter or annual).
PRODUCT NICHES Year Built: 2000+: Properties completed since 2000; 1990s: Properties completed in the 1990s; 1980s: Properties completed in the 1980s; 1970s: Properties completed in the 1970s; Pre‐1970: Properties completed prior to 1970. Building Height: Low‐Rise: Properties with one‐to‐three stories; Mid‐Rise: Properties with four‐to‐six stories; High‐Rise: Properties with seven or more stories. Unit Type: Eff: Units of an efficiency or studio design; 1 BR: Units with one bedroom; 2 BR: Units with two bedrooms; 3 BR: Units with three or more bedrooms. In units that include a den, the den is counted as a bedroom.
COMPARATIVE POSITIONING These charts, which are included in the submarket overview, illustrate a submarket’s performance relative to the metro and all other submarkets. Performances are scaled with the lowest figures set at far left and the highest figures set at far right. The submarket in question is highlighted as maroon, with all other submarkets shown in white. The metro overall is shown in purple. From this, one can tell if a particular submarket is above, below or within the range of other submarkets and the metro overall for a given performance measure. Comparative positioning is available for the following performance measures: monthly rent, annual rent change, occupancy, annual occupancy change, annual supply and annual demand.
© 2014 MPF Research
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SAMPLED UNITS Sub#
Total
Eff
1 BR
2 BR
3 BR
2000+
1990s
1980s
1970s
Pre-1970
Low-Rise
Mid-Rise
1
5,559
67
2,557
2,417
518
3,314
1,459
338
114
334
2,588
2,359
612
2
4,210
308
1,744
1,784
374
902
276
1,821
1,165
46
3,960
250
n.a.
3
10,825
118
4,582
5,233
892
5,247
1,428
3,149
1,001
n.a.
10,117
318
390
4
7,738
296
3,519
3,262
661
346
582
4,430
2,161
219
7,488
250
n.a.
5
5,469
64
2,551
2,492
362
844
1,078
3,011
536
n.a.
5,469
n.a.
n.a.
6
9,705
127
3,937
3,949
1,692
1,824
424
3,744
2,870
843
9,216
404
85
7
10,326
79
3,588
4,714
1,945
3,111
780
2,755
3,104
576
10,125
64
137
8
12,673
152
3,848
6,286
2,387
6,578
1,951
3,972
172
n.a.
12,673
n.a.
n.a.
9
14,719
71
4,915
6,925
2,808
7,447
4,168
2,895
209
n.a.
14,368
351
n.a.
10
3,853
100
1,797
1,643
313
659
140
52
2,940
62
3,350
325
178
11
8,953
n.a.
3,935
4,333
685
2,715
1,166
3,092
1,980
n.a.
8,570
383
n.a.
12
5,493
38
2,875
2,038
542
n.a.
n.a.
1,415
3,800
278
4,972
n.a.
521
13
8,349
36
3,561
4,122
630
388
810
2,950
3,985
216
8,349
n.a.
n.a.
14
4,999
16
1,575
2,582
826
1,574
1,778
1,129
518
n.a.
4,999
n.a.
n.a.
15
4,636
69
1,542
2,435
590
1,868
236
2,408
124
n.a.
4,546
90
n.a.
METRO
117,507
1,541
46,526
54,215
15,225
36,817
16,276
37,161
24,679
2,574
110,790
4,794
1,923
Submarket Key
© 2014 MPF Research
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
Central Tampa Peninsula Town and Country/Westchase Egypt Lake/Lowry Park Carrollwood/Citrus Park University Temple Terrace New Tampa/East Pasco County
9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.
High-Rise
Brandon/Southeast Hillsborough County South St. Petersburg North St. Petersburg Largo/Seminole Clearwater North Pinellas County West Pasco County/Hernando County
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SUBMARKET MAP
© 2014 MPF Research
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1Q 2014
SUBMARKET ZIP CODES 1
Central Tampa: 33602, 33605, 33606, 33607, 33609
2
Peninsula: 33611, 33616, 33621, 33629
3
Town and Country/Westchase: 33615, 33626, 33634, 33635
4
Egypt Lake/Lowry Park: 33603, 33604, 33614
5
Carrollwood/Citrus Park: 33548, 33556, 33558, 33618, 33624, 33625
6
University: 33612, 33613, 33620
7
Temple Terrace: 33610, 33617, 33637
8
New Tampa/East Pasco County: 33523, 33525, 33540, 33541, 33542, 33543, 33544, 33545, 33549, 33559, 33565, 33576, 33592, 33647, 34639
9
Brandon/Southeast Hillsborough County: 33510, 33511, 33527, 33534, 33547, 33563, 33566, 33567, 33569, 33570, 33572, 33573, 33578, 33579, 33584, 33594, 33596, 33598, 33619
10 South St. Petersburg: 33701, 33704, 33705, 33706, 33707, 33710, 33711, 33712, 33713, 33715, 33730 11 North St. Petersburg: 33702, 33703, 33709, 33714, 33716, 33781, 33782 12 Largo/Seminole: 33708, 33770, 33771, 33772, 33773, 33774, 33776, 33777, 33778, 33785, 33786 13 Clearwater: 33755, 33756, 33759, 33760, 33761, 33762, 33763, 33764, 33765, 33767, 34695 14 North Pinellas County: 34677, 34681, 34683, 34684, 34685, 34688, 34689, 34698 15 West Pasco County/Hernando County: 34601, 34602, 34604, 34606, 34607, 34608, 34609, 34610, 34613, 34614, 34637, 34638, 34652, 34653, 34654, 34655, 34661, 34667, 34668, 34669, 34679, 34690, 34691
© 2014 MPF Research
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ABOUT MPF RESEARCH Successful real estate investments require having the right product in the right market at the right time. And MPF Research can provide the apartment market intelligence and decision‐making tools needed to determine what product, market and timing are right for you. MPF Research’s product suite helps you make the decisions that maximize the value of your apartment investments. Tools guide you through smart development or acquisition choices, effective operations and appropriate disposition strategies. These solutions offer sophisticated and timely support to ensure that valuable opportunities don’t slip through the cracks. APARTMENT MARKET REPORTS MPF Research’s quarterly U.S. Apartment Market Report examines occupancy and rent trends on the metro level in 100 markets. Local apartment reports that take the trend analysis down to the submarket level are available for the following markets: Albuquerque, Atlanta, Austin, Baltimore, Baton Rouge, Bay Area (San Francisco, Oakland, San Jose), Birmingham, Boston/ Providence, Charleston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Colorado Springs, Columbia, Columbus, Connecticut (Bridgeport/Stamford/Norwalk, Hartford, New Haven and Norwich/New London), Corpus Christi, Dallas/Fort Worth, Dayton, Denver/Boulder, Detroit (includes Ann Arbor and Flint), El Paso, Fort Myers/Naples, Fresno, Greensboro/Winston‐Salem, Greenville/Spartanburg/Anderson, Houston, Indianapolis, Jackson, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Knoxville, Las Vegas, Lexington, Little Rock, Los Angeles, Louisville, Manhattan, Memphis, Milwaukee, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Nashville, New Orleans, Northern New Jersey (Essex, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Somerset and Union Counties), Oklahoma City, Omaha, Orange County, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Portland, Raleigh/Durham, Reno, Richmond, Riverside/San Bernardino, Sacramento, Salt Lake City, San Antonio, San Diego, Sarasota/Bradenton, Seattle, South Florida (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach), St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Tucson, Tulsa, Ventura/Oxnard, Virginia Beach/Norfolk and Washington, DC. MULTI‐HOUSING OUTLOOK Multi‐Housing Outlook, which MPF Research produces in conjunction with Boston‐based CBRE Econometric Advisors (formerly Torto Wheaton Research), is an interactive forecast of market fundamentals that examines the outlooks for 60 metros down to a submarket level. Multiple scenarios assuming different economic conditions are provided. SOCIAL MEDIA Stay connected with RealPage, Inc. and MPF Research via social media.
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