Annual Progress Report CLEO 2012 (Phase 1) Project 2.3 Local ozone concentrations and flux-based ozone environmental objectives for vegetation in a climate change perspective Project leader : Håkan Pleijel, Institutionen för Biologi och Miljövetenskap, Göteborgs Universitet. [email protected] General Objectives: • To define the relation between synoptic weather conditions and the coupling between local and regional ozone for Sweden and how these relationships will develop in a climate change scenario. • To develop and introduce a new method for the assessment of ozone impacts on vegetation in Sweden based on stomatal ozone flux to the leaves, and to predict how ozone flux to vegetation in Sweden will change in a future climate change scenario. Short description of activities 2012: During 2012, a scientific article was published that describes the large importance of including local topography, as well as vicinity to the coast, when modelling [O3] and in O3 environmental risk assessments in the rural landscape of southern Sweden. Ozone exposure is particularly high close to the coast as well as at inland sites positioned high in the local topography (Figure 1). A manuscript was submitted at the end of 2012 where the effect of costal climate on surface O3 concentrations is treated in detail based on measurements on the isolated island Nidingen off the coast of Northern Halland, where the monitoring station Råö is situated, permitting comparison. Furthermore, the preparation of a scientific article was started, where we predict that the current environmental objective for ozone impacts on vegetation in Sweden is likely not to be exceeded by the year 2050 (Figure 2), due to reduced European ozone precursor emissions.

Summary of the most important results from phase 1. We have demonstrated that the ozone concentrations that are measured at various sites in the rural landscape in southern Sweden depend on the distance to the coast as well as on the position in the local topography, within a radius of 3 km (Figure 3). Furthermore, we demonstrated that the differences in ozone concentrations relates to differences in atmospheric stability, as indicated by the diurnal temperature range (DTR). There was a strong relation between diurnal ozone concentration range (DOR) and DTR (Figure 4A). Moreover, there was a strong correlation between the DTR and the daily synoptic weather situation as indicated by the atmospheric pressure (Figure 4B). In summary, it was demonstrated that the level of ozone concentrations that are measured at the monitoring sites in the rural landscape of southern Sweden depend strongly on the exact position of the site, mainly the distance to the coast and the position in the local topography. Furthermore, the measured ozone concentrations depend strongly on the synoptic weather situation (all other factors constant) with lower concentrations, especially during night-time, measured under high-pressure weather situations. If climate change alters the weather patterns this may have large effects on surface [O3] even if emissions remain unchanged. Based on modelling of Global Climate Change downscaled to Europe and further application of the MATCH Chemical Transport Model, we found that the current environmental objective for ozone impacts on vegetation in Sweden based on AOT40 is likely not to be exceeded by the year 2050 (Figure 2). Even though some aspects of climate change will promote ozone formation, the reductions in European ozone precursor emissions will be the most important factor governing the reductions in AOT40 all over Europe (Figure 2). The future ozone risk for vegetation in Sweden, as estimated based on the concept used within the LRTAP convention, Accumulated ozone Flux through the stomata (AFst, currently denoted Phytotoxic Ozone Dose, POD), is likely to increase as a result of climate change if emissions remain unchanged (Figure 5). This increase is depending on that future increasing air temperatures are likely to promote leaf ozone uptake at a certain air concentration of ozone. However, these estimates are to some extent uncertain since a future elevated air concentration of CO2 would tend to counteract this effect.

Deliverables 2012: D2.3.2b. Parameterization to MATCH model. December 2011.Will be delivered 2013. D2.3.2.c. Scientific publication on climate ozone interactions. December 2011. Published 2012.

Additional staff involved in project: Per Erik Karlsson, IVL, Magnuz Engardt, SMHI. Jenny Klingberg, finished her PhD in June 2011, partly based on work performed within the CLEO project. She continued working with CLEO in 2012. Co-operation outside CLEO:

Håkan Pleijel and Per Erik Karlsson have been deeply engaged in the LRTAP ICP Vegetation during the years 2010-2012, developing new concepts for ozone risk assessments and impacts on European vegetation. Håkan Pleijel and Per Erik Karlsson are partners of the EU FP7 programme ECLAIRE (2012-2015), Effects of Climate Change on Air Pollution Impacts and Response Strategies for European Ecosystems. Håkan Pleijel and Per Erik Karlsson have an on-going assignment from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency to suggest a new environmental objective for ozone impacts on vegetation in Sweden related to ozone flux.

Reports and publications: Peer-reviewed articles: Bueker, P. T. Morrissey, A. Briolat, R. Falk, D. Simpson, J.-P. Tuovinen, R. Alonso, S. Barth, M. Baumgarten, N. Grulke, P. E. Karlsson, J. King, F. Lagergren, R. Matyssek, A. Nunn, R. Ogaya , J. Penuelas, L. Rhea, M. Schaub, J. Uddling, W. Werner, & L. D. Emberson. 2012. DO3SE modelling of soil moisture to determine ozone flux to forest trees. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 5537–5562. Danielsson, H., Karlsson, P.E. & Pleijel, H. An ozone response relationship for four Phleum pratense genotypes based on modelling of the phytotoxic ozone dose (POD). Accepted for publication in Environmental and Experimental Botany, October 2012. Klingberg J., Engardt M., Uddling J., Karlsson P.E. and Pleijel H. 2011. Ozone risk for vegetation in Europe under different climate change scenarios based on ozone uptake calculations. Tellus 63A:174-187. Klingberg, J., Karlsson, P.E., Pihl Karlsson, G., Hu, Y., Chen, D. and Pleijel, H. 2012. Variation in ozone exposure in the landscape of southern Sweden with consideration of topography and coastal climate. Atmospheric Environment 47, 252-260. Submitted: Håkan Pleijel, Jenny Klingberg, Gunilla Pihl Karlsson, Magnuz Engardt, Per Erik Karlsson. Surface ozone in the marine environment – ozone concentration gradients in coastal areas. Submitted to Water, Air & Soil Pollution November 2012. Reports: Karlsson P. E., Pleijel, H., Pihl Karlsson, G. Pleijel, H., Klingberg, J. 2011. Lokalklimatologisk inverkan på förekomsten av marknära ozon i Västra Götaland. Mätningar vid Vänerns kust och vid platåberget Billingen. IVL Rapport U 3014. Karlsson, P.E. 2012. Ozone Impacts on Carbon Sequestration in Northern and Central European Forests. IVL Rapport B 2065. Klein, T., Karlsson, P.E., Andersson, S., Engardt, m., Sjöberg, S. 2011. Assessing and improving the Swedish forecast and information capabilities or ground-level ozone. SMHI. REPORT METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY No. 114, 2011. Sjöberg, K., Karlsson, P.E., Haeger-Eugensson, M. 2010. Förslag till nationellt övervakningsprogram för marknära ozon. Rapport till Naturvårdsverket. IVL Rapport U 2325.

Oral presentations: Variations in ozone exposure in the landscape with consideration of topography and coastal climate. ACCENT-Plus Symposium Air Quality and Climate Change: Interactions and Feedbacks, 13 -16 September 2011, Urbino, Italy. Klingberg, J., Karlsson, P. E., Pihl Karlsson, G., Hu, Y., Chen, D., Pleijel, H., poster Ozone risk for vegetation in the future climate of Europe based on stomatal ozone uptake calculation. Air quality and Climate change: interactions and Feedbacks, ACCENT-Plus Symposium, 13-16 September 2011, Urbino, Italy. Pleijel, H., Klingberg, J., Engardt, M., Uddling, J., Karlsson, P.E., oral presentation Effekter på vegetation. Seminar: Kortlivade klimatpåverkande ämnen, SLCF, March 8 2011 Stockholm, Sweden. H. Pleijel, oral presentation. Prospects for future ozone effects in the Nordic countries with consideration of climate change. Symposium in the honour of professor Satu Huttunen, 1-2 December 2011, Department of Biology, University of Oulu, Finland. H. Pleijel, invited speaker. Ozone risks for vegetation in the future climate of Europe based on stomatal ozone uptake calculations. The 25th Task Force Meeting of the ICP Vegetation, January 31 - February 2 2012, Brescia, Italy. Pleijel, H, Klingberg, J., Engardt, M., Uddling, J. & Karlsson, P.E., oral presentation Environmental objectives for ozone impacts on vegetation in Sweden - A simplified index related to ozone flux. The 25th Task Force Meeting of the ICP Vegetation, January 31 - February 2 2012, Brescia, Italy. Karlsson, P.E., Pleijel, H., Danielsson, H., Pihl Karlsson, G., Simpson, D., oral presentation Ozone impacts on carbon sequestration in northern and central European forests. The 25th Task Force Meeting of the ICP Vegetation, January 31 - February 2 2012, Brescia, Italy. Karlsson, P.E., oral presentation. S-POD - a simplified ozone index to be used to assess the risk for negative ozone impacts on vegetation at the national level. 26th Task Force Meeting of the ICP Vegetation. 28st January – 30th January, 2013. Halmstad, Sweden. Karlsson, P.E., oral presentation. Ozone risk assessment for the 21st century based on ozone and climate change scenarios. 26th Task Force Meeting of the ICP Vegetation. 28st January – 30th January, 2013. Halmstad, Sweden. Pleijel, H., oral presentation.

Appendix 1.Figures.

45

45

a

b

40

35

Ozone concentration (ppb)

Ozone concentration (ppb)

40

30 25 20 15 10 Hedared

5

35 30 25 20 15 10 Sandhult

5

Östad

0

Östad

0

0

6

12

18

24

0

6

Time of day

45

low site Östad, 45 km east of Gothenburg (65

40

m.a.s.l.), in comparison with (a) the inland low

35

and (c) the coastal site Nidingen. All sites are positioned in southwest Sweden, within approximately 70 km.

Ozone concentration (ppb)

Figure 1. Average diurnal [O3] at the inland

site Hedared, (b) the inland high site Sandhult

12

18

24

Time of day

c

30 25 20 15 10 Nidingen

5

Östad

0 0

6

12 Time of day

18

24

A. 1990-2009

B. 2040-2059

Figure 2. Present and future modelled AOT40 (ppbh) accumulated over the growing season as a 20-year average 1990-2009 (a) and 2040-2059 (b). The current environmental objective states that AOT40 during one growing season should not exceed 5000 ppbh. Ozone concentrations were modelled with MATCH. The modelling included both climate change and ozone precursor emission reductions.

Figure 3. Average April40

2009 in relation to relative altitude at six permanent ozone monitoring sites in southern and mid-Sweden. The sites are Östad, Asa, Grimsö, Norr Malma, Vavihill and Norra Kvill. The relative altitude is calculated for a radius of 3 km and a high value indicates a hilltop.

Average Apr-Sep [O3] (ppb) 2007-2009

September [O3] during 2007-

a 35

30

y = 0.08x + 30 R2 = 0.88 p = 0.006

25

20 -30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Relative altitude (m)

50

60

70

A

B 60

25 Lanna

y = 1.36x + 10.2 R2 = 0.39 p = 0.001

50

Hedared 20

Sandhult

30

DTR (°C)

40 DOR (ppb)

Brobacka

y = 0.38x - 369 R2 = 0.46 p = 0.005

Lanna Hedared

20

15

Rönnäng Nidingen

y = 0.18x - 177 R2 = 0.31 p = 0.010

10

Brobacka Sandhult

10

5

Rönnäng Nidingen

0 0

5

10 15 DTR (°C)

20

25

0 985

y = 0.07x - 69 R2 = 0.10 p = 0.077 995 1005 1015 1025 Daily average air pressure (hPa)

1035

Figure 4. A. Diurnal O3 range (DOR) in relation to diurnal temperature range (DTR). Black symbols are inland low sites, grey symbols are inland high sites and open symbols are coastal sites. Each symbol represents one day, N = 197 days. B. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) in relation to average air pressure. Black symbols are inland low sites (N=72 days), grey symbols are inland high sites (N=78 days) and open symbols are coastal sites (N=62 days). Rönnäng and Nidingen are coastal sites, Brobacka and Sandhult are inland hilltop sites, Lanna and Hedared are inland low sites.

50

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

Ozone concentration (ppb)

-2

AFst3gen (mmol m PLA)

40

50

1961-1990 2021-2050 A2 2071-2100 A2

0 FI22

FI37

SE32

SE11

DE02

DE03

FR10

FR13

ES09

ES07

Site

Figure 5. Average accumulated stomatal flux of ozone for a generic crop (AFst3gen) during 1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 following the SRES A2 emission scenario. The striped part of the bars show average AFst3gen when the stomatal response function for CO2 (fCO2) was included in the calculation. Error bars show standard deviation (N=30 years). Circles are average ozone concentration (scale on the right) for the same time periods as AFst3gen is accumulated.