Announcement – ElectroniCast Consultants
LED – MR Lamps Market Forecast - June 2014
ElectroniCast Report Announcement
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LED Multifaceted Reflector (MR) Lamps Global Market Forecast June 2014
Website: www.electronicastconsultants.com
Announcement – ElectroniCast Consultants
LED – MR Lamps Market Forecast - June 2014
ElectroniCast Consultants LED Multifaceted Reflector (MR) Lamps Global Market Forecast June 23, 2014 597 (PDF File) Excel Worksheets/Data Tables and PowerPoint Slides $1,800
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Publish Date: Text Pages: Also Included: Fee:
ElectroniCast announces their forecast of the worldwide use of Light Emitting Diode (LED)-based MR compatible lamps, which are used in new construction and retrofitting/ replacement lighting. "MR" refers to the multifaceted reflector, which has multiple small facets. This reflector gives a soft edge to the area illuminated by the lamp.
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Market data covered in this report includes the use of LED-based MR lamps in all lighting, which includes vehicle lights (rail vehicles, buses, aircraft, watercraft, other) as well as professional displays (retail displays/cases and other), as well as general lighting and other. General Lighting provides the main illumination of an area, such as ceiling (and in-ground) lights and other. For the purposes of this study, ElectroniCast also includes Landscape and Lighting, Directional Lighting, Supplementary Lighting and Architectural Lighting in the General Lighting category.
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LED-based MR compatible lamps are similar in shape to halogen MR lamps, and can be used in most fixtures designed for halogen MR lamps. There are a wide variety of designs, varying significantly with regard to beam width, light color, efficiency and luminous power. Unlike halogen MR lamps, LED-lamps might not necessarily have the multifaceted reflectors that give halogen MR lamps their precise beam width control. Some LED-based MR compatible lamps rely on the optics of the LED(s) to control the beam width. Some designs may have simple cut-off apertures that limit beam width, or even individual reflectors for each LED. The quality and color temperature of the white light produced by LED-based lamps varies. Many tend towards the blue end of the spectrum, being even "cooler"-colored than fluorescent lighting. Because of this variability, some LED-based MR compatible lamps will create significantly more natural looking light than others. Lamps are designated by symbols such as "MR 16" where the diameter is represented by numerals. Common sizes for general lighting are MR 16 and MR 11, with MR 20 and MR 8 used in specialty applications. MR16 is a coded designation in which MR stands for multifaceted reflector, and 16 is the diameter in eighths of an inch across the front face. An MR16 is sixteen eighths, or 2 inches (51 mm) in diameter and an MR11 is eleven eighths, or 1.375 inches (34.9 mm) in diameter.
Announcement – ElectroniCast Consultants
LED – MR Lamps Market Forecast - June 2014
The temperature of the filament capsule of halogen MR lamps rises to at least 260°C (500°F) to maintain the halogen regenerative cycle during operation. Obviously, these temperatures can be dangerous if the capsule comes in contact with skin or flammable materials (Rea 2000). The heat produced by these lamps should be accounted for when considering using them in heat-sensitive applications such as in museums. Low voltage halogen lamps, such as halogen MR lamps often have a better efficacy than line voltage incandescent lamps but not nearly as efficient as gas discharge lamps or some LED lamps.
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The filament capsule of a halogen MR lamp is pressurized. The quartz capsule should not be touched with bare hands because the oil and salts from the fingers can corrode the quartz and weaken it. At the end of life, the broken filament coil within the capsule may touch the quartz and melt into it while it is still hot. This event will create defects on the quartz envelope, and defects of this sort can make the capsule shatter. Failure can also occur if the lamp is accidentally struck. Halogen MR lamps must have a cover glass when used in open luminaires. The cover “glass” (glass or plastic) keeps any broken fragments from the capsule.
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The light emitting diode (LED) market, despite exciting innovative devices driven by technological advances and ecological/energy-saving concerns, is rapidly overcoming challenges in performance/price limitations and in attracting widespread consumption. This report provides an independent examination and analysis of the changing market dynamics for LED-based MR compatible lamps, segmented by size/diameter: LED – MR16 Compatible LED – MR11 Compatible and other MR Compatible sizes
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Consumption Value (US$, million) Quantity (number/units in millions) Average Selling Prices (ASP $, each)
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The market forecast data are presented for LED MR compatible lamps, segmented by the following functions:
Note: Market forecast data in this study report refers to consumption (use) for a particular calendar year; therefore, this data is not cumulative data.
All data and other information contained in this report are proprietary to ElectroniCast and may not be distributed or provided in either original or reproduced form to anyone outside the client's internal employee organization, without prior written permission of ElectroniCast.
Announcement – ElectroniCast Consultants
LED – MR Lamps Market Forecast - June 2014
The consumption value is determined by multiplying the number of units by the average selling price. The average selling prices are based on the price of LED multifaceted reflector lamps at the initial factory level. The consumption values are based on the end-user region. The market data are segmented into the following geographic regions, plus a Global summary: United States of America Europe Asia Pacific (APAC) Rest of World (Latin America, Canada, Africa, Middle East)
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As shown in Figure 1, the global consumption of LED multifaceted reflector (MR) lamps was $1.04 billion in 2013. In the year 2018, the worldwide consumption value is forecast to reach $3.32 billion. 1
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Figure 1 LED-Based MR Compatible Lamps Global Consumption Market Forecast, (Value Basis, $Billion)
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MR Lamps ($Billion)
2013
2016
2018
1.04
2.65
3.32
Source: ElectroniCast Consultants
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All values and prices in this report are at factory as-shipped levels, and are in current dollars, which include the effect of a forecasted 5 percent annual inflation rate over the forecast period.
Announcement – ElectroniCast Consultants
LED – MR Lamps Market Forecast - June 2014
ElectroniCast Methodology
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Market analysis and technology forecasting are complex tasks. Any predictions of the shape and trends of technology and economic movement start from the notion that the germ of what will be important tomorrow is present, although smaller or larger or in a different form, in our environment today. However, taking as a basis for a prediction the assumptions of current, conventional belief creates a set of preconceived notions that can lead to serious mistakes. ElectroniCast, instead, looks to the basic driving forces. The future market for a particular type of lighting product, such as LED MR lamps, consumed in selected applications depends on a number of factors, including: User equipment demand, for example – applications: retail displays, vehicle lighting (masstransit/other), decorative/architectural lighting, general lighting, and others.
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This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually over the past several years, but updated through mid-June, 2014. During this period, ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the LED manufacturing (materials, wafers/chips, integrated circuits/circuit boards, driver ICs, packaging, devices, sockets, plastic, aluminum and glass manufacturers, associated parts/pieces, fittings/fixtures) and hospitality/hotels, mass transit authorities, building/facility management, transportation/infrastructure, R&D, display and retail, industry, government, and other. The interviews were conducted principally with: Engineers, marketing personnel and management at manufacturers of LEDs (chips, components, lamps and fixtures), halogen components/lamps, as well as other technologies, such as fluorescent-based lamps and OLED light panels. Design group leaders, engineers, marketing personnel and market planners at major users and potential users of halogen lamps, LED lamps, and other. Other industry experts, including those focused on standards activities, trade associations, investments, and government regulations.
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The interviews covered issues of technology, R&D support, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics. Customers and distributors also were interviewed, to obtain their estimates of quantities received and average prices paid. Customer estimates of historical and expected near term future growth of their application are obtained. Their views of use of new lighting technology products were obtained. The analysts then considered customer expectations of near term growth in their application, plus forecasted economic payback of investment, technology trends and changes in government regulations and funding/tax-break legislation/rules in each geographical region, to derive estimated growth rates of quantity and price of each product subset in each application. These forecasted growth rates are combined with
Announcement – ElectroniCast Consultants
LED – MR Lamps Market Forecast - June 2014
the estimated baseline data to obtain the long-range forecasts at the lowest detailed level of each product and application. A full review of published information was also performed to supplement information obtained through interviews. The following sources were reviewed: Professional technical journals and papers Trade press articles Technical conference proceedings Product literature Company profile and financial information Additional information based on previous ElectroniCast market studies Personal knowledge of the research team.
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In analyzing and forecasting the complexities of the American and other world region markets for light emitting diode products, it is essential that the market research team have a good and a deep understanding of the technology and of the industry. ElectroniCast members who participated in this report were qualified.
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Bottom-up Methodology ElectroniCast forecasts, as illustrated in the forecast data structure, are developed initially at the lowest detail level, then summed to successively higher levels.
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The background market research focuses on the amount of each type of product used in each application in the base year (2013), and the prices paid at the first transaction from the manufacturer. This forms the base year data. ElectroniCast analysts then forecast the growth rates in component quantity use in each application, along with price trends, based on competitive, economic and technology forecast trends, and apply these to derive long term forecasts at the lowest application levels. The usage growth rate forecasts depend heavily on analysis of overall end user trends toward equipment usage and economic payback. Figure 3 further illustrates the research methodology regarding this study.
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The calculation and analysis data spreadsheet technique is based upon input/output analysis, leveraging the quantitative consumption quantity, price and value of each item in each application at all levels to achieve reasonable quantitative conclusions; this interactive analysis concept, first applied on a major scale by Leonteff, of the US Department of Commerce, in the mid 1950s, was then adopted successfully by analyst/forecasting firms Quantum Science, Gnostic Concepts and (in 1981) by ElectroniCast.
Announcement – ElectroniCast Consultants
LED – MR Lamps Market Forecast - June 2014
Figure 1 Market Research & Forecasting Methodology (Source: ElectroniCast Consultants)
VALUE QUANTITY
ECONOMICS TECHNOLOGY GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS
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IMPACT
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CUSTOMER INTERVIEWS
APPLICATIONS QUANTITIES PRICES CHARGED
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About ElectroniCast
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ElectroniCast, founded in 1981, specializes in forecasting technology and global market trends in fiber optics communication components and devices, as well providing market data on light emitting diodes used in lighting.
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As an independent consultancy we offer multi-client and custom market research studies to the world's leading companies based on comprehensive, in- depth analysis of quantitative and qualitative factors. This includes technology forecasting, markets and applications forecasting, strategic planning, competitive analysis, customer-satisfaction surveys and marketing/sales consultation. ElectroniCast, founded as a technologybased independent consulting firm, meets the information needs of the investment community, industry planners and related suppliers.
Announcement – ElectroniCast Consultants
LED – MR Lamps Market Forecast - June 2014
Table of Contents 1-1 1-1 1-64 1-83 1-98 2-1 2-1 2-20 3-1 3-1 3-18 4-1 5-1 6-1 7-1 7-1 7-81 8-1 8-1 8-3
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1. Executive Summary 1.1 Overview 1.2 LED Lamps & Light Fixtures Used in General Lighting 1.3 Unpackaged and Packaged LEDs – Overview 1.4 Barriers to Growth in the Military/Government Sector 2. Market Forecast & Analysis – Lamp Size 2.1 Global Overview 2.2 Regional Market Forecast – Lamp Size 3. Market Forecast & Analysis, By End-User Application 3.1 Overview 3.2 Regional Market Forecast by End-User Group Application 4. Profile Briefs of LED and Related Companies 5. LEDs – Technology Overview 6. ElectroniCast Market Research Methodology 7. Definitions and Standards 7.1 Acronyms, Abbreviations, and General Terms 7.2 Lighting Standards and Protocols 8. Market Forecast Data Base 8.1 Overview 8.2 Tutorial Addendum Excel Data Base Spreadsheets (ElectroniCast Global Market Forecast) Detailed Data: ASP ($, each); Quantity (Million); Value ($, Million) for all Regions Power Point Market Data Figures (Global Market Forecast – Data Figures)
– List of Tables –
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LED MR Lamps Global Forecast, By Region ($Million) LED MR Lamps Global Forecast, By End-Use Application ($Million) LED MR Lamps Global Forecast, By Size ($Million) Current Members of NGLIA Current Members of NGLIA Members - CERC Building Energy Efficiency Consortium List of ELCOMA Members Typical Luminous Efficacies for Traditional and LED Sources LED-Based MR Compatible Lamps, By Type & Size ($Million) LED-Based MR Compatible Lamps, By Type & Size (Quantity/Units) LED-Based MR Compatible Lamps, By Type & Size (Price, $ Each Unit) Correlated Color Temperature Source Examples LED-Based MR Compatible Lamps, Global Forecast ($Million) LED-Based MR Compatible Lamps, USA Forecast ($Million) LED-Based MR Compatible Lamps, Europe Forecast ($Million) LED-Based MR Compatible Lamps, APAC Forecast ($Million) LED-Based MR Compatible Lamps, Rest of World Forecast ($Million) LED MR Lamps Global Forecast, By End-Use Application ($Million) LED MR Lamps Global Forecast, By End-Use Application (Quantity/Units) LED MR Lamps USA Forecast, By End-Use Application ($Million) LED MR Lamps USA Forecast, By End-Use Application (Quantity/Units) LED MR Lamps European Forecast, By End-Use Application ($Million) LED MR Lamps European Forecast, By End-Use Application (Quantity/Units) LED MR Lamps APAC Forecast, By End-Use Application ($Million) LED MR Lamps APAC Forecast, By End-Use Application (Quantity/Units) LED MR Lamps Rest of World Forecast, By End-Use Application ($Million) LED MR Lamps Rest of World Forecast, By End-Use Application (Quantity/Units) LED Color Variety – Selected Examples LED Color Chart ElectroniCast Market Forecast Data Base: Category Hierarchy List ElectroniCast Market Forecast Database Application Category Hierarchy List
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1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3 1.1.4.a 1.1.4.b 1.1.5 1.1.6 1.3.1 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.1.3 2.1.4 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 2.2.4 2.2.5 3.1.1 3.1.2 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.2.3 3.2.4 3.2.5 3.2.6 3.2.7 3.2.8 5.1 5.2 8.1.1 8.2.1
1-3 1-5 1-16 1-19 1-20 1-29 1-54 1-90 2-6 2-8 2-10 2-14 2-22 2-22 2-23 2-23 2-24 3-10 3-11 3-18 3-19 3-20 3-21 3-22 3-23 3-24 3-25 5-10 5-12 8-3 8-4
Announcement – ElectroniCast Consultants
LED – MR Lamps Market Forecast - June 2014
– List of Figures – 1-4 1-6 1-9 1-11 1-12 1-13 1-14 1-15 1-35 1-65 1-66 1-67 1-68 1-69 1-70 1-70 1-72 1-78 1-79 1-80 1-81 1-82 1-83 1-84 1-85 1-86 1-87 1-88 1-89 1-92 1-93 1-94 1-94 1-95 1-96 1-97 2-7 2-9 2-12 2-13 2-15 2-16 2-17 2-18 2-18 2-18 2-19 2-20 3-7 3-8 3-9 3-14 4-5 4-11 4-13 4-19 4-20 4-21 4-22 4-23 4-24 4-26
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LED-Based MR Compatible Lamp Forecast, By Region ($Million) LED-Based MR Compatible Lamp Forecast, By Application ($Million) Product Life Cycle (PLC) LED-Based Replacement Lamp for Halogen MR16 Sockets LED MR16 Color Shift Over Temperature Halogen MR16 Lamps and Type A-Lamp Halogen 50 watt MR16 Lamp with GU10 Base Halogen MR Lamp Socket Types LED-Based Bright Lit Ceiling A19 Bulbs (Consumer-Level Bulb/LED LAMP) Obstruction Bulbs (Lamps) - Flashing - 138 red or amber LEDs Downlight Retrofit Module Miscellaneous LED Lamps GeoBulb™ LED Light Bulb (Cool White): A-Type Bulb Complete Fixture and Streetlight (Lamp) Complete Fixture and Streetlight (Lamp) Samples of Lighting Fixture Types LED-Based T8 Linear Tube Lamps LED-Based High Bay Lamp/Fixtures Hazardous Location Lighting (Class 1, Division 2) LED Panel Light with Adjustable Color, Built in Dimmer 19-Inch LED Ring Light Fixture Set Diagram of a typical LED chip Diagram of a typical LED chip LED Chip Cross-Sectional Structure Chip On Glass Cross-Sectional Structure ESD Protection Diodes Electrostatic Discharge Example Chip-on-Board LED Technology Single-die LED: 1000 lm at 100 lm/W at 3A Four-die LED with Primary Optics LED Packaged Chip LED Packaged Chip LED Packaged Chip Surface Mount Variations LED Packaged Chip High Brightness LED Packaged Chip LED-Based MR Lamps, By Size ($Million) LED-Based MR Lamps, By Size (Quantity, Thousand) Multi-Die LED LED-Based MR16 Compatible Lamp Multi-Die LED Multi-Die LED LED MR-16 Lamp Halogen MR Lamp Halogen MR Lamp Longest Life Halogen MR-16 Lamp LED-Based MR Compatible Lamp Forecast, By Region ($Million) LED-Based MR Compatible Lamps Global Market Forecast, By Region (Value Basis, $Million) LED-Based MR Lamps Global Market Forecast, (Value Basis, $Million) LED-Based MR Lamps Global Market Forecast, (Quantity/Units) LED-Based MR Lamps Global Market Forecast, (Average Selling Price, $ Each) World Map – Cooperation on Reducing GHG Emissions RPCVD Process Equipment LED Chromatic Chart Evolution of Research Emphasis During Technology Life Cycle LED Chip: Metal Layer (Thin Film Technology) Vertical LED Chip AC LED Technology on a Wafer Ultra High Bright LED Chip LED Chip Design with Copper Alloy Thermal Conductivity LED Chip Design – Sapphire vs. Copper Alloy Ultra-Thin LED
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1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3 1.1.4 1.1.5 1.1.6 1.1.7 1.1.8 1.1.9 1.2.1 1.2.2 1.2.3 1.2.4 1.2.5 1.2.6.a 1.2.6.b 1.2.7 1.2.8 1.2.9 1.2.10 1.2.11 1.2.12 1.3.1 1.3.2 1.3.3 1.3.4 1.3.5 1.3.6 1.3.7 1.3.8 1.3.9 1.3.10 1.3.11 1.3.12 1.3.13 1.3.14 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.1.3 2.1.4 2.1.5 2.1.6 2.1.7 2.1.7 2.1.8 2.1.9 2.1.10 2.2.1 3.1.1 3.1.2 3.1.3 3.1.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10
Announcement – ElectroniCast Consultants
LED – MR Lamps Market Forecast - June 2014
– List of Figures – Continued 4-27 4-28 4-29 4-32 4-39 4-41 4-45 4-46 4-48 4-50 4-24 4-27 4-43 4-45 4-59 4-61 4-64 4-68 4-69 4-78 4-79 4-80 4-82 4-89 4-90 4-99 4-100 4-107 4-108 4-109 4-113 4-117 4-133 4-138 4-144 4-156 4-164 4-171 4-180 4-187 4-193 4-196 4-208 4-211 4-212 4-213 4-214 4-216 4-229 4-233 4-255 4-270 6-3 7-51
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Solid-State Lighting LED LED Module with High Light Quality LED Module with Low-Profile Rectangular Shape Lumiramic Phosphor Technology: Thin Film Flip Chip (TFFC) technology Next-Generation Light Emitting Diode Module 4-Leaded RGB LED Basic Structure of a Deep-UV Light-Emitting Diode Vertically Conducting Advanced LED Structure AlGaInP LED Efficacy Red Nitride Phosphors PCB Assembly LED Backlit Display Rugged Touch Screen with NVIS Capability High Performance Materials used for Functional Parts in LED Luminaries LED Down light with 102 Lumens per Watt Fixture LED Lighting Military Solutions LED Lighting in Railway Station 4-inch x 4.7-inch Round Light/Fixture Dense Matrix LED / LED-Based Light Source Silicone Encapsulant and Silicone Lens in LEDs Silicone Products for LED Lamps Silicone Products for LED Streetlamps LED Technology Safelight Design NVIS/LED Control Panel Integrated Weapons Delivery System Cockpit Modular Display/Panel Cockpit Large Area Display Traffic Lamp LED High Power LED Lamp Surface Mount Type LED Surface Mount Type LED Exterior Aircraft LED Lighting LED/CCD Barcode Readers Surface-Mount Multi-layer Ceramic Packages LED Linear Optical Array Solid-State NVIS Lamps Nanostructures Designed for Different Color Emission LED Array Lighting – Lamp Light-Measurement Device SSL LED: Replacement for Halogen Lamp in Spotlights Assorted LED Lighting Profile Devices Federal Lighting Location Requirements for Buses LED-Based Digital Billboard (Signage/Display) Diagram of Backlight LED Drivers Diagram of Multifunction Backlight LED Drivers Diagram of White Backlight LED Drivers Diagram White Backlight LED Drivers Rotary Wing Aircraft Cockpit Display Ultra-Thin LED Quality Management System in LED Manufacturing Military and Harsh-Environment LEDs LED Street Lights ElectroniCast Market Research & Forecasting Methodology MacAdam Ellipses Chart
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4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14 4.15 4.16 4.17 4.18 4.19 4.20 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11 5.12 5.13 5.14 5.15 5.16 5.17 5.18 5.19 5.20 5.21 5.22 5.23 5.24 5.25 5.26 5.27 5.28 5.29 5.30 5.31 5.32 5.33 5.34 5.35 5.36 5.37 5.38 5.39 4.40 5.41 5.42 6.1 7.1.1
