An international scenario study for the world of electronic retailing Jürgen Gerdes, Board Member Post ‐ eCommerce ‐ Parcel, Deutsche Post DHL Berlin, May 20, 2014
3 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
WHAT WILL THE RETAILING SPHERE LOOK LIKE IN TEN YEARS FROM NOW?
WHAT WILL THE WORLD OF GLOBAL COMMERCE LOOK LIKE TEN YEARS FROM NOW?
5 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
THE STUDY
SCENARIO 1 // HYBRID CONSUMER BEHAVIOR IN CONVERGENT WORLDS OF RETAILING
SCENARIO 2 // SELF‐PRESENTATION IN VIRTUAL COMMUNITIES
SCENARIO 3 // ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE DIGITAL RETAILING SPHERE
SCENARIO 4 // COLLABORATIVE CONSUMPTION IN A REGIONALIZED RETAILING LANDSCAPE
6 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
THE STUDY // SCENARIO 1
SCENARIO 1 // HYBRID CONSUMER BEHAVIOR IN CONVERGENT WORLDS OF RETAILING
SCENARIO 2 // SELF‐PRESENTATION IN VIRTUAL COMMUNITIES
SCENARIO 3 // ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE DIGITAL RETAILING SPHERE
SCENARIO 4 // COLLABORATIVE CONSUMPTION IN A REGIONALIZED RETAILING LANDSCAPE
7 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
SCENARIO 1 // HYBRID CONSUMER BEHAVIOR IN CONVERGENT WORLDS OF RETAILING
The struggle for social status determines the rhythm of life and work in a global achievement‐oriented society.
“Foodstuffs are delivered on a subscription basis.”
8 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
“Online and offline are perfectly interlinked in the retail sector.”
SCENARIO 1 // AN OVERVIEW Framework conditions
Moderate, but steady growth of the global economy
Asia is the growth engine
Globally, an achievement‐ orientated society has developed.
9 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
Buying and selling
Logistics implications
Everywhere Commerce – in 2025, shopping is possible anywhere and at all times
The demand for transportation services on all levels is evident
Few global players
Convenience and efficiency are crucial factors when it comes to shopping
Regional providers offer special or supplementary services
Economies in India, China and Indonesia are drivers of growth in Asia as well as for the global economy Globally, the merger of stationary retailing and e‐commerce has made major advances The proportion of e‐commerce of the total trading volume is at 15% in emerging markets and at 20% in developed countries The demand for transportation services is strong, both on domestic and international level
10 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
THE STUDY // SCENARIO 2
SCENARIO 1 // HYBRID CONSUMER BEHAVIOR IN CONVERGENT WORLDS OF RETAILING
SCENARIO 2 // SELF‐PRESENTATION IN VIRTUAL COMMUNITIES
SCENARIO 3 // ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE DIGITAL RETAILING SPHERE
SCENARIO 4 // COLLABORATIVE CONSUMPTION IN A REGIONALIZED RETAILING LANDSCAPE
11 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
SCENARIO 2 // SELF‐PRESENTATION IN VIRTUAL COMMUNITIES
Individualism is becoming a global trend. Newfound wealth has allowed more and more individual ways of life and consumption.
“Shopping is a way of life.”
“Lifestyle hubs conquer broad retail segments.” 12 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
SCENARIO 2 // AN OVERVIEW Framework conditions
Rapidly growing global economy
Globally stable and consumption‐oriented middle class
Buying and selling
The volume of e‐ commerce is increasing at a fast pace Small, innovative online retail platforms have specialized in lifestyle niches
Social values have shifted away from work and towards leisure
Technology has evolved significantly, but has seen no radical changes
Retailers offer different theme worlds and shopping experiences
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Logistics implications
Transport volumes have increased significantly
Deliveries are regulated, especially in city centers and congested urban areas
Parcel boxes in detached houses as well as Packstations in houses with multiple units and large residential complexes are widespread
SCENARIO 2 // KEY FINDINGS
The global increase in wealth spurs the economy and consumption worldwide Online shopping und communication is available at any time with the help of portable technology The proportion of e‐commerce of the total trading volume is at 20% in emerging markets and at 30% in developed countries High transport volumes on national and international level
14 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
THE STUDY // SCENARIO 3
SCENARIO 1 // HYBRID CONSUMER BEHAVIOR IN CONVERGENT WORLDS OF RETAILING
SCENARIO 2 // SELF‐PRESENTATION IN VIRTUAL COMMUNITIES
SCENARIO 3 // ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE DIGITAL RETAILING SPHERE
SCENARIO 4 // COLLABORATIVE CONSUMPTION IN A REGIONALIZED RETAILING LANDSCAPE
15 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
SCENARIO 3 // ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE DIGITAL RETAILING SPHERE
Hi‐tech is guiding individual consumer habits and making everyday decisions. “Cybercrime and data protection remain unresolved challenges.”
“Human life is shaped by innovation.” 16 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
SCENARIO 3 // AN OVERVIEW Framework conditions
High, yet volatile growth of global economy, driven by a high pace of IT innovations
Advanced digital culture
Wearables such as smart glasses or smart contact lenses are constant companions in all situations
17 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
Buying and selling
Avatars assist in making purchases and also act autonomously Extensive customer profiles also lead to new business models such as predictive purchasing Because of the increased networking, cybercrime is a constant threat and there is great need for security.
Logistics implications
Especially secure supply chains
Same‐day deliveries are standard
Retailers estimate demand ahead of time and deliver goods directly
Consumers can customize their delivery as needed
SCENARIO 3 // KEY FINDINGS
The global economy is thriving thanks to the high pace of IT innovations Shopping is strongly influenced by avatars and digital devices The proportion of e‐commerce of the total trading volume is at 30% in emerging markets and at 40% in developed countries Consumers can customize deliveries at any time in real time
18 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
THE STUDY // SCENARIO 4
SCENARIO 1 // HYBRID CONSUMER BEHAVIOR IN CONVERGENT WORLDS OF RETAILING
SCENARIO 2 // SELF‐PRESENTATION IN VIRTUAL COMMUNITIES
SCENARIO 3 // ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE DIGITAL RETAILING SPHERE
SCENARIO 4 // COLLABORATIVE CONSUMPTION IN A REGIONALIZED RETAILING LANDSCAPE
19 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
SCENARIO 4 // COLLABORATIVE CONSUMPTION IN A REGIONALIZED RETAILING LANDSCAPE
Tougher economic conditions have resulted in a more careful use of resources.
“Ownership of products gives way to usage models.”
“Social responsibility features prominently in the retailing sector.” 20 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
SCENARIO 4 // AN OVERVIEW Framework conditions
The second economic and financial crisis after 2008 leads to a stagnating global economy Increased costs for energy and raw materials The importance of personal possession has waned – leasing and sharing models have become very popular
21 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
Buying and selling
Logistics implications
Consumers are increasingly aware of retailers’ ecological footprint and social engagement
Little increase but stable demand for transportation and logistics services
Very little volume of cross‐ border shipments
New recycling models for consumers, retailers and manufacturers
Increased cooperation between logistics companies and retailers
Social networks become more important since they provide information about the person’s reputation with whom a swap is being arranged
Spare parts logistics as well as repair and maintenance services become important segments
SCENARIO 4 // KEY FINDINGS
Significantly regionalized economic structures and a newly awakened protectionism Leasing and sharing models give way to consumption and personal possession for many categories of goods The proportion of e‐commerce of the total trading volume is at 15% in emerging markets and at 10% in developed countries Greatly increased cooperation between logistics companies and retailers, particularly for repair and maintenance services 22 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
THE STUDY // KEY FINDINGS – SUMMARY
The global retail sector is changing rapidly
Technological and social development sets the pace
E‐commerce could reach well up to 30% (emerging markets) or 40% (developed countries) of the overall trading volume
Logistics companies will act as an enabler for success
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DEUTSCHE POST DHL HAS THE FUTURE WELL IN VIEW…
… ALTHOUGH OUR FUTURE BEGAN ALREADY SOME YEARS AGO! 24 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
WE ARE DRIVING OUR BUSINESS FORWARD THROUGH GREAT INNOVATION … EXAMPLES
Packstations
Online Shopping 25 | Global E‐Tailing 2025 – A Scenario Study
Digital Letter
Parcel box
StreetScooter
e-Bike
Parcel shops
NEW ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE FOR Post ‐ eCommerce ‐ Parcel Two main businesses, each with the brand power, expertise and resources necessary to meet our ambitious growth targets Sub‐division eCommerce & Parcel
Sub‐division Post The Post for Germany includes
The global e‐commerce enabler includes
• • • • •
• • • •
Mail communications E‐Post Dialog marketing Press services Export/Import Germany
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Germany Europe International Cross‐border/Intercontinental
eCommerce ‐ Parcel: WE EXPORT OUR SUCCESSFUL PARCEL BUSINESS INTO INTERNATIONAL MARKETS Americas
already developed
USA
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Germany/Europe
Germany Benelux
Czech Republic Poland
Asia/Pacific
India
DEUTSCHE POST DHL HAT DIESE ZUKUNFT SCHON HEUTE IM BLICK
DEUTSCHE POST DHL IS ALREADY FOCUSING ON THIS FUTURE TODAY
