Americans Prefer Neutrality  in Israeli‐Palestinian Conflict   Dina Smeltz, senior fellow, public opinion and foreign policy  Craig Kafura, senior program officer, studies    August 2014 

  Chicago Council Survey results from May, before the recent outbreak of fighting in Gaza, show that Americans did not see the lack of a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians to be a critical threat to the vital interests of the United States. A solid majority continued to want the United States to remain neutral in the conflict, even though their sympathies tended to lie more with Israel than the Palestinian Authority.

Americans opt for neutrality 

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 Data prior to 2002 from Gallup Poll, July 6‐9, 2000.  

Public takes neutral stance Not take either side Take Israel’s side Take the Palestinians' side 74

74

70

24

66

65

64

28

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30

3

3

3

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3 2003

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3

1

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17

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Over the last decade of Chicago Council Surveys, a majority of Americans have consistently advocated for a neutral approach to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.1. Chicago Council results from May 2014 found that six in ten (64%) said the United States should not take either side, while three in ten (30%) favored taking Israel’s side (3% favored the Palestinians’ side). While these recent data were collected prior to the June kidnappings that sparked outbreak of fighting in July, previous data suggest that these incidents would most likely not have a dramatic effect on Americans’ preference for the United States to stay neutral. For example, results from the identical question in a 2000 Gallup Poll fielded just prior to the beginning of the Second Intifada found that a majority said the United States should not take either side.

2  THE CHICAGO COUNCIL ON GLOBAL AFFAIRS      Two years later, the 2002 Chicago Council Americans view Israel  Survey found a majority continued to prefer that the United States remain neutral, just favorably after an outbreak of fighting in Jenin and an (0‐100) extended standoff at the Church of the Nativity. And in 2010, a year after Operation Israel Palestinian Authority Cast Lead in Gaza ended in Israeli forces declaring a unilateral ceasefire, a majority of Americans continued to support not taking 61 59 either side in the conflict. 58 57

  Americans feel warmer toward Israel than  the Palestinian Authority   

Americans continue to feel warmly towards Israel, rating it an average of 59 on a 0‐100 scale. In 2014, this rating places Israel just above Brazil (58) and just below France (61). But American attitudes on current Israeli actions are mixed. A July 22‐23 Gallup poll shows the US public is divided over whether Israel’s actions against Hamas are justified (42%) or not justified (39%). Americans are cooler in their feelings towards the Palestinian Authority, giving it a 33 out of 100. Comparatively, the Palestinian Authority is viewed slightly more favorably than Iraq (31) and slightly less favorably than Russia (36).

53

54

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53 54 49

32 32

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Do you think US leaders should  or should not be ready to meet  and talk with leaders of Hamas? Should be

Should not be

Support for meeting; talking with Hamas  According to the July 22‐23 Gallup poll, a solid majority of Americans consider Hamas’ actions unjustified (70%, vs. 11% justified)2. But Americans do not want to close the door on dialogue with Hamas. A bare majority of Americans (50%) continue to say that US leaders should be ready to meet and talk with leaders of Hamas (46% oppose doing so). This has been a consistent finding in Chicago Council Surveys over the last six years, and

53

52 50 48

46

45

46

41 2008

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2 

“Americans' Reaction to Middle East Situation Similar to Past.” Jeffrey M. Jones. 24 July, 2014.  

thechicagocouncil.org   

59

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33

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3  THE CHICAGO COUNCIL ON GLOBAL AFFAIRS      reflects the public’s general preference for diplomatic engagement, even with hostile nations or groups.

Half willing to send US troops as part of a peacekeeping mission if a peace agreement  reached  Relative to other threats to US national security, the lack of a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians is not considered a critical threat (26% critical). A majority (53%) label it as an ‘important, but not critical, threat.’ But if a hypothetical peace agreement is reached, half of Americans are willing to send US troops to be part of an international peacekeeping force to enforce a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians (50%; 49% oppose). Americans are only slightly less supportive of using US troops to defend Israel in the event of an attack by its neighbors, with 45 percent of the public in favor. Finally, in the event that Israel bombs Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iran were to retaliate against Israel, four in ten Americans (43%) support the use of US troops.

Support for economic, military aid to Israel  Reflecting the generally positive view Americans have of Israel, a plurality of Americans support maintaining both economic and military aid to Israel. An additional one in ten support increasing economic and military aid to Israel, while about two in ten want to decrease or end that aid. This is unique among nations in the Middle East: support for aid to nearby Egypt and Iraq has declined in recent years.

Partisan divides on the Middle East conflict    As in past Chicago Council Surveys, self‐ described Republicans tend to express more positive views toward Israel than other partisans. Though supporters of all three political groupings view Israel quite favorably, Republicans ratings of Israel are highest. In addition, Republicans (49%) are more likely than Democrats (17%) or Independents (30%) to say that the United States should take Israel’s side in the conflict – though Republicans themselves are divided (47% say the US should take neither side). By contrast, solid majorities of Democrats (76%) and Independents (60%) prefer that the United States stay neutral in the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

Support for aid to Israel Economic Aid 12%

Increased 13%

46%

Kept about the same

46%

21%

Decreased 19%

Stopped altogether

18% 18%

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thechicagocouncil.org   

Military Aid

4  THE CHICAGO COUNCIL ON GLOBAL AFFAIRS      When it comes to using US troops, Republicans are more likely to favor coming to Israel’s aid in a military confrontation with its neighbors or with Iran. As in other peacekeeping scenarios, Democrats are more likely to support using US troops as part of an international peacekeeping mission to enforce a peace agreement between the two sides.

Partisan Views on Issues Pertaining to Israel  

Overall

Republicans

59

65

57

57

Favor taking Israel’s side in the conflict

31%

49%

17%

30%

Favor using US troops to be part of an international peacekeeping force to enforce a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians

50%

46%

59%

41%

Favor using US troops if Israel were attacked by its neighbors

45%

52%

41%

44%

Favor using US troops if Israel bombs Iran’s nuclear facilities, and Iran were to retaliate against Israel

43%

54%

40%

36%

Israel rating on thermometer scale (0‐100)

Democrats Independents



Younger Americans less pro‐Israel    Chicago Council Surveys conducted over the past 40 years show that an interesting age gap has emerged in overall impressions of Israel. From 1978 to the early 2000s, attitudes towards Israel across age divisions were fairly similar. But by 2008, these views became more differentiated: younger Americans (between the ages of 18 and 29) now feel significantly less favorably about Israel than do Americans over the age of 60. As the figure below shows, the gap today between the oldest and youngest Americans is at its widest ever. This is due primarily to an increase in favorability among older Americans, and secondarily to declining favorability among younger Americans.

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Average favorability rating of Israel (0‐100) 18‐29

30‐44

45‐59

60+

68

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Older Americans are also more likely to support taking Israel’s side in the conflict. While majorities of all age groups prefer taking a neutral position, four in ten (42%) of Americans age 60 or older are more likely than other age groups to support the US taking Israel’s side (42%, compared to 29% among those 45‐59 and 25% among those 30‐44 and 18‐29).

   

 

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About the 2014 Chicago Council Survey  The analysis in this report is based on data from the 2014 Chicago Council Survey and previous Chicago Council Surveys of the American public on foreign policy. The 2014 Survey was conducted by GfK Custom Research using their large‐scale, nationwide research panel between May 6 to May 29, 2014 among a national sample of 2,108 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 US states and the District of Columbia. The margin of error for the overall sample is ± 2.1 percentage points. A full report on the results of the 2014 Chicago Council Survey will be released on September 15. The 2014 Chicago Council Survey is made possible by the generous support of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Robert R. McCormick Foundation, the Korea Foundation, and the United States‐Japan Foundation. For more information regarding the 2014 Chicago Council Survey, please contact Dina Smeltz, senior fellow, Public Opinion and Global Affairs ([email protected]; 312‐821‐6860) or Craig Kafura, senior program officer, Studies ([email protected]; 312‐821‐7560).  

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