Airport Capacity Into the Future

Airport Capacity — Into the Future Dr. Bernardo Lisker International Director Global Aviation Cooperation Symposium (GACS) Panel: Global Expansion o...
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Airport Capacity — Into the Future

Dr. Bernardo Lisker International Director

Global Aviation Cooperation Symposium (GACS) Panel: Global Expansion of Airports: New Initiatives in Airport Operations

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Montreal, Canada, 2 October 2014

Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. 14-3356

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A few words about MITRE…  Research organization – Non-comercial, not-for-profit – Origins at Massachusetts Institute of of Technology (MIT) – Established in 1958 - Works exclusively in the public interest – ~7000 engineers, mathematicians, controllers, pilots, etc.

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Airport Airside Capacity…  This briefing focuses on airport movement capacity, given land scarcity close to centers served by major airports

 Solutions radically differ from as recently as 15 years ago – – – –

Modeling is replacing tables, rules of thumb, and “manuals” Runway configuration and separation standards keep changing Satellite navigation is changing old concepts Runway bottlenecks are being gradually compounded by airspace complexity, as runways are added due to growing demand

 Chicago O’hare initiated independent (simultaneous) parallel dual operations in the 1960s – Half a century later, only a handful of non-U.S. airports operate “duals” – Let us talk a bit about “duals” and, just as important, “triples”

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Parallel Runways Independent Instrument Approaches

>1310 m (ordinary radar) >1035 m (PRM or PRM-A*)

(at sea level)

* Multilateration-based Precision Runway Monitoring-Alternative (PRM-A) Note: The FAA allows, under certain conditions (offset Localizer), as little as a 914-meter centerline separation (3000 feet)

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Parallel Runways Independent Instrument Approaches – Latest (non-ICAO)

>1097 m (>3600 feet)

Ordinary Radar (at sea level)

FAA Notice N_JO_7110.625 Effective 19 August 2013 “Simultaneous Independent Close Parallel Approaches – High Update Radar Not Required”

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Parallel Runways Dependent Instrument Approaches

>760 m (non-ICAO)*

1.5 NM diagonal separation (non-ICAO)**

* ICAO requires 915 m ** ICAO requires a 2.0 NM separation 6 of 18

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Converging Runways Independent Instrument Approaches (non-ICAO)

Nominal Nominal flight path flight path MAP

At >3least NM 3.0 nmi required

Non-overlapping obstacle

Non-intersecting runways Non-intersecting runways

“TERPS” clearancesurfaces surfaces ("TERPS" surfaces)

MAP Nominal flight path Nominal

flight path * Current procedure (known as "TERPS + 3") is under review Capacity-enhancing modifications are being studied

MAP: missed approach point

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NOTE: not an ICAO procedure

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Converging Runways Dependent Instrument Approaches (non-ICAO)

Ghost Aid (CRDA)

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Aircraft position relative to a known point is “ghosted” onto the other fixed path

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Parallel Runways Independent Triple Instrument Approaches (non-ICAO)

 Minimum runway spacing of 1525 m – 1310 m with standard radar and improved display – No Transgression Zones (NTZ)

 Airport elevation restricted to less than 1000 ft without a separate safety assessment

 Five U.S. airports routinely operate “triples” NTZ

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NTZ

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Independent Parallel Approaches General Requirements  Operational/airspace – Straight-in landings and 30-degree maximum intercept angle (20degree maximum for triple approaches) – 1000 ft altitude separation turning onto final approach – 2000 ft wide (610 m) NTZ between runways

 Equipment – ILS for each runway – Monitor displays (usually one per runway), specialized for 1310 m runway spacing – Dedicated frequency or override capability

 Staffing – Separate controller for each runway to monitor approaches 10 of 18

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Testing for Independent Parallel Approaches  Real-time simulations – Qualified controllers using realistic display and communications equipment – Current airline pilots flying approved flight simulators – Computer-generated traffic for additional controller workload – ~200 blunders

 Fast-time simulations – Use human response times from real-time simulations – Extend results to several hundred thousand blunders

 Post-simulation statistical analysis – Maximum acceptable estimated accident rate is 1 in 25,000,000 approaches 11 of 18

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Simultaneous Instrument Approach Model (SIAM)  Created by MITRE – Utilized during the development of independent approach standards for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) – Utilizes human response from U.S. controllers

 Fast-time simulation model – Simulates deviations from final approach course and subsequent reactions by monitor controllers and pilots

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Mexico City International Airport (AICM) N

Operational capacity of “~1.5 runways”

Source: It includes materials protected under copyright by DigitalGlobe, Inc.

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AICM’s Severe Noise Impact

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New AICM Location N

Source: It includes materials protected under copyright by DigitalGlobe, Inc.

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Airspace Complexity… New AICM vs. Toluca Airport (North Flow, 34º Case) N

Area of Interaction

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Observations  Airspace saturation is becoming a paramount issue, often times no less complex than runway and taxiway saturation

 The design methodologies of the past are rapidly being replaced by computer modeling – Buyer beware: not all models are sufficiently validated before their release

 Advanced navigation, under many guises, is going to be one of the great dividers between the old and the new regime

 Analytical work and detailed planning take years before any construction and testing can start – Land-use planning in terms of high buildings, antennas, noise sensitive areas, etc. should attempt to consider airspace complications decades ahead

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Contact This MITRE document should be read and treated with caution, as many points were only discussed verbally. For any questions, please contact the author at [email protected] This is the copyright work of The MITRE Corporation and was produced for the U.S. Government under Contract Number DTFAWA-10-C-00080 and is subject to Federal Aviation Administration Acquisition Management System Clause 3.5-13, Rights in Data-General, Alt. III and Alt. IV (Oct. 1996). No other use other than that granted to the U.S. Government, or to those acting on behalf of the U.S. Government, under that Clause is authorized without the express written permission of The MITRE Corporation. For further information, please contact The MITRE Corporation, Contract Office, 7515 Colshire Drive, McLean, VA 22102, (703) 983-6000. The contents of this material reflect the views of the author and/or the Director of the Center for Advanced Aviation System Development, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or Department of Transportation (DOT). Neither the FAA nor the DOT makes any warranty or guarantee, or promise, expressed or implied, concerning the content or accuracy of the views expressed herein. 2014 The MITRE Corporation. The Government retains a nonexclusive, royalty-free right to publish or reproduce this document, or to allow others to do so, for “Government Purposes Only.”

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