Three Facts About Economic Fluctuations
Seventh Edition
FACT 1:
Principles of
Wojciech Gerson (1831-1901)
Macroeconomics N. Gregory Mankiw
Economic fluctuations are irregular and unpredictable.
18,000 16,000 14,000
U.S. real GDP, billions of 2009 dollars
12,000
CHAPTER
20
Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
10,000 8,000 6,000
The shaded bars are recessions
4,000 2,000 0 1965
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In this chapter, look for the answers to these questions
• What are economic fluctuations? What are their
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Three Facts About Economic Fluctuations FACT 2:
Most macroeconomic quantities fluctuate together.
3,000
characteristics? 2,500
• How does the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply explain economic fluctuations?
• Why does the Aggregate-Demand curve slope
Investment spending, billions of 2009 dollars
2,000 1,500
downward? What shifts the AD curve? 1,000
• What is the slope of the Aggregate-Supply curve in the short run? In the long run? What shifts the AS curve(s)?
500 0 1965
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Three Facts About Economic Fluctuations
Introduction
FACT 3:
Over the long run, real GDP grows about 3% per year on average.
As output falls, unemployment rises.
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In the short run, GDP fluctuates around its trend. Recessions: periods of falling real incomes and rising unemployment Depressions: severe recessions (very rare)
Unemployment rate, percent of labor force
10 8 6
Short-run economic fluctuations are often called business cycles.
4 2
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0 1965
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The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
Introduction, continued Explaining these fluctuations is difficult, and the theory of economic fluctuations is controversial.
P
The price level
Most economists use the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply to study fluctuations.
The model determines the eq’m price level
This model differs from the classical economic theories economists use to explain the long run.
SRAS
“Short-Run Aggregate Supply”
P1 “Aggregate Demand”
and eq’m output (real GDP).
AD Y
Y1
Real GDP, the quantity of output © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
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The Aggregate-Demand (AD) Curve
Classical Economics—A Recap The previous chapters are based on the ideas of classical economics, especially: The Classical Dichotomy, the separation of variables into two groups: Real – quantities, relative prices Nominal – measured in terms of money The neutrality of money: Changes in the money supply affect nominal but not real variables. © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
7
P
The AD curve shows the quantity of all g&s demanded in the economy at any given price level.
P2
P1 AD Y2
Y
Y1
10
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Why the AD Curve Slopes Downward
Classical Economics—A Recap
P
Most economists believe classical theory describes the world in the long run, but not the short run.
Y = C + I + G + NX Assume G is fixed by govt policy.
P2
In the short run, changes in nominal variables (like the money supply or P ) can affect real variables (like Y or the u-rate).
To understand the slope of AD, must determine how a change in P affects C, I, and NX.
P1
To study the short run, we use a new model.
AD Y2
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9
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8
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Y1
Y
11
2
The Slope of the AD Curve: Summary
The Wealth Effect (P and C )
An increase in P reduces the quantity of g&s demanded because:
Suppose P rises.
The dollars people hold buy fewer g&s, so real wealth is lower. People feel poorer.
the wealth effect (C falls)
Result: C falls.
the interest-rate effect (I falls)
P P2
P1 AD
the exchange-rate effect (NX falls)
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Y2
15
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Why the AD Curve Might Shift
The Interest-Rate Effect (P and I )
Any event that changes C, I, G, or NX—except a change in P—will shift the AD curve.
Suppose P rises. Buying g&s requires more dollars. To get these dollars, people sell bonds or other assets.
This drives up interest rates. Result: I falls. (Recall, I depends negatively on interest rates.)
P
Example: P1 A stock market boom makes households feel wealthier, C rises, the AD curve shifts right.
AD2 AD1
Y1
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Y2
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Y
16
Why the AD Curve Might Shift
The Exchange-Rate Effect (P and NX )
Changes in C Stock market boom/crash Preferences re: consumption/saving tradeoff Tax hikes/cuts
Suppose P rises. U.S. interest rates rise (the interest-rate effect). Foreign investors desire more U.S. bonds. Higher demand for $ in foreign exchange market.
Changes in I Firms buy new computers, equipment, factories Expectations, optimism/pessimism Interest rates, monetary policy Investment Tax Credit or other tax incentives
U.S. exchange rate appreciates. U.S. exports more expensive to people abroad, imports cheaper to U.S. residents. Result: NX falls. © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Y
Y1
14
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3
The Aggregate-Supply (AS ) Curves
Why the AD Curve Might Shift
The AS curve shows the total quantity of g&s firms produce and sell at any given price level.
Changes in G Federal spending, e.g., defense State & local spending, e.g., roads, schools Changes in NX Booms/recessions in countries that buy our exports Appreciation/depreciation resulting from international speculation in foreign exchange market
P
LRAS SRAS
AS is:
upward-sloping in short run Y
vertical in long run
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ACTIVE LEARNING
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1
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The Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve (LRAS)
The Aggregate-Demand curve What happens to the AD curve in each of the following scenarios? A. A ten-year-old investment tax credit expires. B. The U.S. exchange rate falls. C. A fall in prices increases the real value of
consumers’ wealth. D. State governments replace their sales taxes with
new taxes on interest, dividends, and capital gains. © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
ACTIVE LEARNING
1
Answers A. A ten-year-old investment tax credit expires. I falls, AD curve shifts left. B. The U.S. exchange rate falls. NX rises, AD curve shifts right. C. A fall in prices increases the real value of consumers’ wealth. Move down along AD curve (wealth-effect). D. State governments replace sales taxes with new taxes on interest, dividends, and capital gains. C rises, AD shifts right. © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
The natural rate of output (YN) is the amount of output the economy produces when unemployment is at its natural rate.
P
YN is also called potential output or full-employment output.
LRAS
YN
Y
22
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Why LRAS Is Vertical YN determined by the P economy’s stocks of labor, capital, and natural resources, P2 and on the level of technology. An increase in P does not affect any of these, so it does not affect YN. (Classical dichotomy)
LRAS
P1
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YN
Y
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4
Using AD & AS to Depict Long-Run Growth and Inflation
Why the LRAS Curve Might Shift Any event that changes any of the determinants of YN will shift LRAS.
P
LRAS1 LRAS2
Over the long run, tech. progress shifts LRAS to the right and growth in the money supply shifts AD to the right.
Example: Immigration increases L, causing YN to rise. YN
Y’ N
Y
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Result: ongoing inflation and growth in output.
P
LRAS2010 LRAS2000 LRAS1990
P2010 P2000 AD2010
P1990
Y1990
AD2000 AD1990 Y Y2000 Y2010 27
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Short Run Aggregate Supply (SRAS)
Why the LRAS Curve Might Shift
P
The SRAS curve is upward sloping:
Changes in L or natural rate of unemployment Immigration Baby-boomers retire Govt policies reduce natural u-rate
Over the period of 1–2 years, an increase in P causes an increase in the quantity of g & s supplied.
Changes in K or H Investment in factories, equipment More people get college degrees Factories destroyed by a hurricane
SRAS P2 P1
Y1
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Why the Slope of SRAS Matters
Why the LRAS Curve Might Shift Changes in natural resources Discovery of new mineral deposits Reduction in supply of imported oil Changing weather patterns that affect agricultural production
If AS is vertical, fluctuations in AD do not cause fluctuations in output or employment.
Changes in technology Productivity improvements from technological progress
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Y
Y2
If AS slopes up, then shifts in AD do affect output and employment.
26
LRAS
P Phi
SRAS
Phi ADhi
Plo AD1
Plo
ADlo Ylo
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Y1
Yhi
Y
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5
Three Theories of SRAS
2. The Sticky-Price Theory
In each,
Imperfection: Many prices are sticky in the short run. Due to menu costs, the costs of adjusting prices. Examples: cost of printing new menus, the time required to change price tags
some type of market imperfection result: Output deviates from its natural rate when the actual price level deviates from the price level people expected.
Firms set sticky prices in advance based on PE.
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1. The Sticky-Wage Theory
2. The Sticky-Price Theory
Imperfection: Nominal wages are sticky in the short run, they adjust sluggishly. Due to labor contracts, social norms
Suppose the Fed increases the money supply unexpectedly. In the long run, P will rise.
Firms and workers set the nominal wage in advance based on PE, the price level they expect to prevail.
Firms with menu costs wait to raise prices. Meanwhile, their prices are relatively low, which increases demand for their products, so they increase output and employment.
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In the short run, firms without menu costs can raise their prices immediately.
Hence, higher P is associated with higher Y, so the SRAS curve slopes upward. © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
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1. The Sticky-Wage Theory
3. The Misperceptions Theory
If P > PE, revenue is higher, but labor cost is not. Production is more profitable, so firms increase output and employment.
Imperfection: Firms may confuse changes in P with changes in the relative price of the products they sell.
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If P rises above PE, a firm sees its price rise before realizing all prices are rising. The firm may believe its relative price is rising, and may increase output and employment.
Hence, higher P causes higher Y, so the SRAS curve slopes upward.
So, an increase in P can cause an increase in Y, making the SRAS curve upward-sloping.
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6
SRAS and LRAS
What the 3 Theories Have in Common: In all 3 theories, Y deviates from YN when P deviates from PE.
Y = YN + a (P – PE) P
Y = YN + a (P – PE) Output Natural rate of output (long-run)
Expected price level
a > 0, measures how much Y responds to unexpected changes in P
In the long run, PE = P
Actual price level
and Y = YN.
SRAS PE
Y
YN 36
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What the 3 Theories Have in Common:
Everything that shifts LRAS shifts SRAS, too.
P
P
SRAS SRAS
If PE rises, workers & firms set higher wages.
PE
When P < PE Y
YN
Y < YN
Y > YN
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LRAS
Also, PE shifts SRAS:
SRAS
When P > PE
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Why the SRAS Curve Might Shift
Y = YN + a(P – PE)
the expected price level
LRAS
37
PE PE
At each P, production is less profitable, Y falls, SRAS shifts left.
Y
YN
40
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SRAS and LRAS
The Long-Run Equilibrium
The imperfections in these theories are temporary. Over time, sticky wages and prices become flexible misperceptions are corrected
In the long-run equilibrium,
In the LR, PE = P AS curve is vertical
and unemployment is at its natural rate.
P
LRAS SRAS
PE = P, Y = YN ,
PE
AD
YN © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
38
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Y
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Economic Fluctuations
Two Big AD Shifts: 2. The World War II Boom
Caused by events that shift the AD and/or AS curves.
From 1939–1944, 2,000
1. Determine whether the event shifts AD or AS.
govt outlays rose from $9.1 billion to $91.3 billion
2. Determine whether curve shifts left or right.
Y rose 90%
1,400
3. Use AD–AS diagram to see how the shift changes Y and P in the short run.
P rose 20%
1,200
unemp fell from 17% to 1%
1,000
42
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P
1. Affects C, AD curve
SRAS1 A
P1 P2
SRAS2
B
P3
AD1
C
1944
1943
1942
1941
Y
YN
43
From 1929–1933, 900
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ACTIVE LEARNING
Two Big AD Shifts: 1. The Great Depression
Event: Boom in Canada
U.S. Real GDP, billions of 2000 dollars
800
3. SR eq’m at point B.
Y fell 27%
650
P
1. Affects NX, AD curve 2. Shifts AD right
750
2
Answers
850
stock prices fell 90%, reducing C and I
P3
P and Y higher, unemp lower
P2
600
4. Over time, PE rises,
P1
550
SRAS shifts left, until LR eq’m at C. Y and unemp back at initial levels.
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1934
1933
1932
1931
1930
700
1929
u-rate rose from 3% to 25%
A boom occurs in Canada. Use your diagram to determine the SR and LR effects on U.S. GDP, the price level, and unemployment.
AD2 Y2
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P fell 22%
2
Draw the AD-SRAS-LRAS diagram for the U.S. economy starting in a long-run equilibrium.
LRAS
2. C falls, so AD shifts left
money supply fell 28% due to problems in banking system
45
Working with the model
Event: Stock market crash
4. Over time, PE falls, SRAS shifts right, until LR eq’m at C. Y and unemp back at initial levels.
800
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ACTIVE LEARNING
The Effects of a Shift in AD
3. SR eq’m at B. P and Y lower, unemp higher
1,600
1939
4. Use AD–AS diagram to see how economy moves from new SR eq’m to new LR eq’m.
1,800
1940
Four steps to analyzing economic fluctuations:
U.S. Real GDP, billions of 2000 dollars
44
LRAS
SRAS2
C
SRAS1 B
A
AD2 AD1
YN
Y2
Y
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8
CASE STUDY:
CASE STUDY:
The 2008–2009 Recession
The 2008–2009 Recession
From 12/2007 to 6/2009, real GDP fell 4.7%
Consequences of 2006–2009 housing market crash:
Unemployment rose from 4.4% in 5/2007 to 10.0% in 10/2009
Millions of homeowners “underwater”—owed more than house was worth.
The housing market played a central role in this recession…
Millions of mortgage defaults and foreclosures. Banks selling foreclosed houses increased surplus and downward price pressures. Housing crash badly damaged construction industry: 2010 unemployment rate was 20.6% in construction vs. 9.6% overall.
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48
CASE STUDY:
CASE STUDY:
The 2008–2009 Recession
The 2008–2009 Recession
220
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
51
Consequences of 2006–2009 housing market crash:
200
Mortgage-backed securities became “toxic,” heavy losses for institutions that purchased them, widespread failures of banks and other financial institutions.
180
2000 = 100
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160 140
Sharply rising unemployment and falling GDP.
120 100 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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CASE STUDY:
CASE STUDY:
The 2008–2009 Recession
The 2008–2009 Recession
Rising house prices during 2002–2006 due to:
The policy response:
low interest rates
Federal Reserve reduced Fed Funds rate target to near zero.
easier credit for “sub-prime” borrowers government policies to increase homeownership securitization of mortgages: Investment banks purchased mortgages from lenders, created securities backed by these mortgages, sold the securities to banks, insurance companies, and other investors. Mortgage-backed securities perceived as safe, since house prices “never fall.” © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
50
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Federal Reserve purchased mortgage-backed securities and other private loans. U.S. Treasury injected capital into the banking system to increase banks’ liquidity and solvency in hopes of staving off a “credit crunch.” Fiscal policymakers increased government spending and reduced taxes by $800 billion. © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
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The Effects of a Shift in SRAS Event: Oil prices rise 1. Increases costs, P shifts SRAS (assume LRAS constant) 2. SRAS shifts left 3. SR eq’m at point B. P2 P higher, Y lower, P1 unemp higher From A to B, stagflation, a period of falling output and rising prices.
John Maynard Keynes, 1883–1946 The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, 1936
LRAS SRAS2 SRAS1
B
A AD1 Y
Y2 YN
54
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Accommodating an Adverse Shift in SRAS
Argued recessions and depressions can result from inadequate demand; policymakers should shift AD.
Famous critique of classical theory: The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run, we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us when the storm is long past, the ocean will be flat. © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
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CONCLUSION
If policymakers do nothing, 4. Low employment causes wages to fall, SRAS shifts right,
P
This chapter has introduced the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, which helps explain economic fluctuations.
LRAS SRAS2
until LR eq’m at A.
P3
Or, policymakers could use fiscal or monetary policy to increase AD and accommodate the AS shift: Y back to YN, but P permanently higher.
P2
C
SRAS1
B A
P1
AD2
AD1 Y2 YN
Y
55
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The 1970s Oil Shocks and Their Effects 1973–75
1978–80
Real oil prices
+ 138%
+ 99%
CPI
+ 21%
+ 26%
Real GDP
– 0.7%
+ 2.9%
# of unemployed persons
+ 3.5 million
+ 1.4 million
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Keep in mind: these fluctuations are deviations from the long-run trends explained by the models we learned in previous chapters. In the next chapter, we will learn how policymakers can affect aggregate demand with fiscal and monetary policy.
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Summary • Short-run fluctuations in GDP and other macroeconomic quantities are irregular and unpredictable. Recessions are periods of falling real GDP and rising unemployment.
• Economists analyze fluctuations using the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply.
• The aggregate demand curve slopes downward
56
because a change in the price level has a wealth effect on consumption, an interest-rate effect on investment, and an exchange-rate effect on net exports. © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
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Summary
Summary
• Anything that changes C, I, G, or NX—except a
• A fall in aggregate supply results in stagflation—
change in the price level—will shift the aggregate demand curve.
• The long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical
falling output and rising prices. Wages, prices, and perceptions adjust over time, and the economy recovers.
because changes in the price level do not affect output in the long run.
• In the long run, output is determined by labor, capital, natural resources, and technology; changes in any of these will shift the long-run aggregate supply curve. © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Summary • In the short run, output deviates from its natural rate when the price level is different than expected, leading to an upward-sloping shortrun aggregate supply curve. The three theories proposed to explain this upward slope are the sticky wage theory, the sticky price theory, and the misperceptions theory.
• The short-run aggregate-supply curve shifts in response to changes in the expected price level and to anything that shifts the long-run aggregate supply curve. © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
Summary • Economic fluctuations are caused by shifts in aggregate demand and aggregate supply.
• When aggregate demand falls, output and the price level fall in the short run. Over time, a change in expectations causes wages, prices, and perceptions to adjust, and the short-run aggregate supply curve shifts rightward. In the long run, the economy returns to the natural rates of output and unemployment, but with a lower price level. © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
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