Affirmative Action, Mismatch and College Graduation Rates Education Writers Association Los Angeles February 27, 2016 William Kidder Associate Vice Chancellor UC Riverside [email protected] 1

Themes Why this matters: B.A. degree production and the global economy q  Black and Latino grad rate gaps at selective U.S. colleges & universities q  Graduation rate studies summarized q  Wages/earnings studies q  Theory and research behind the educational benefits of diversity q 

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Equity Gaps in Graduation Rates are Relevant to America’s Future in the Global Economy US and OECD Countries, % of Population with Bachelor’s Degrees or Higher, by age (2012) Age 25-34

Age 35-44

Age 45-54 34.1% 34.7%

30.3%

12th

25.9% 20.1%

5th

Age 55-64 30.5% 31.2%

2nd

1st

U.S. rank

16.9%

OECD Countries Avg. (34)

United States

Source: http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d14/tables/dt14_603.20.asp

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Gap = White minus Black Rate 25

0

-5

-10 Harvard University Yale University Princeton University MIT University of Chicago Dartmouth College Stanford Washington U. St Louis Columbia University Brown Notre Dame Pennsylvania Duke Northwestern Rice Vanderbilt Tufts Georgetown Cornell Carnegie Mellon Emory University Johns Hopkins University USC Rensselaer Poly UC Berkeley NYU Case Western Virginia Georgia Tech U. Rochester North Carolina Chapel Hill Tulane U. Michigan-Ann Arbor U. Maryland-College Park George Wash. U. U. Miami U. Illinois Urbana-Cham. UCLA UC San Diego U. Florida Boston U. U. Wisconsin-Madison Ohio State U. Pittsburgh U. Minnesota UT Austin U. Georgia U. Connecticut Virginia Tech Texas A & M U. Washington Stony Brook UC Santa Barbara U. Tennessee Penn State UC Davis Rutgers U. South Carolina UC Irvine U. Delaware Florida State North Carolina State U. Oklahoma U. Central Florida Indiana U. Michigan State U. Iowa U. Missouri Purdue U. Colorado Boulder U. Mass Amherst Louisiana State U. Alabama Huntsville UC Santa Cruz U. at Buffalo Iowa State U. Nebraska U. Kentucky U. South Florida SUNY Albany Colorado State U. Kansas U. Cincinnati U. Louisville U. Oregon U. Alabama Birmingham U. Arkansas U. Illinois Chicago North Dakota State Virginia Commonwealth U. Houston Georgia State Washington State U. Arizona Oregon State Arizona State Mississippi State UC Riverside U. New Mexico Wayne State

Black-White Gaps in Graduation Rate at Top 100 U.S. Research Universities (2003-04 to 2006-07 freshman cohorts combined)

40

35

30

Avg. Gap by Quintile

5.4 points 9.8 points 11.8 points 11.1 points

Freshman Selectivity (most selective at left)

13.7 points

20

15

10

5

4

Slight Negative Correlation between Selectivity and Black-White Grad Rate Gaps (500 Colleges)

Source: Jonathan Rothwell, Brookings (Dec. 2015) http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/social-mobility-memos/posts/2015/12/16-scalia-black-students-do-well-top-colleges-rothwell

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Gap = White minus Latino Rates 20

0

-5

-10 Harvard University Yale University Princeton University MIT University of Chicago Dartmouth College Stanford Washington U. St Louis Columbia University Brown Notre Dame Pennsylvania Duke Northwestern Rice Vanderbilt Tufts Georgetown Cornell Carnegie Mellon Emory University Johns Hopkins Brandeis University USC Rensselaer Poly UC Berkeley NYU Virginia Georgia Tech U. Rochester North Carolina Chapel Hill Tulane U. Michigan-Ann Arbor U. Maryland-College Park George Wash. U. U. Miami U. Illinois Urbana-Cham. UCLA UC San Diego U. Florida Boston U. U. Wisconsin-Madison Ohio State U. Pittsburgh U. Minnesota UT Austin U. Georgia U. Connecticut Virginia Tech Texas A & M U. Washington Stony Brook UC Santa Barbara U. Tennessee Penn State UC Davis Rutgers U. South Carolina UC Irvine U. Delaware Florida State North Carolina State U. Oklahoma U. Central Florida Indiana U. Michigan State U. Iowa U. Missouri Purdue U. Colorado Boulder U. Mass Amherst Louisiana State UC Santa Cruz U. at Buffalo Iowa State U. Nebraska U. Kentucky U. South Florida SUNY Albany Colorado State U. Kansas U. Cincinnati U. Louisville U. Oregon U. Utah Montana State U. Arkansas U. Illinois Chicago Virginia Commonwealth U. Houston Georgia State U. Hawaii Washington State U. Arizona Oregon State Arizona State UC Riverside U. New Mexico Wayne State

Latino-White Gaps in Graduation Rate at Top 100 U.S. Research Universities (2003-04 to 2006-07 freshman cohorts combined)

40

35

30

25

Avg. Gap by Quintile

3.4 points 4.8 points 7.9 points 7.9 points 6.6 points

15

10

5

Freshman Selectivity (most selective at left) 6

Literature Disconfirming the Mismatch Hypothesis: College Graduation Rates 1. Review of the literature, some additional data analysis 4. Data set focused on a particular state system

2. Compares similar 3. Data set focused on students at different tier highly selective colleges institutions 5. Data set nationally 6. Natural Experiment representative/broad in (or Quasi-Experiment) scope 7. Used statistical techniques to control for selection bias

2 3 Sigal Alon, Race, Class and Affirmative Action (2015) 7 1 5 William C. Kidder & Richard O. Lempert, The Mismatch Myth in U.S. Higher Education: A Synthesis of the Empirical Evidence at the Law School and Undergraduate Levels, in Uma M. Jayakumar & Liliana M. Garces Eds., Affirmative Action and Racial Equity, 105, 114-22 (2015) 2 5 Eleanor Wiske Dillon & Jeffrey Andrew Smith, The Consequences of Academic Match between Students and Colleges (May 2015), IZA discussion paper available at http://ftp.iza.org/dp9080.pdf 1 5 William C. Kidder & Angela Onwuachi-Willig, Still Hazy After All These Years: The Data and Theory Behind “Mismatch,” 92 Texas L. Rev. 895, 897-921 (2014) 2 5 Peter Hinrichs, Affirmative Action Bans and College Graduation Rates, 42 Econ. Educ. Rev 43 (2014) 2 4 Peter Arcidiacono & Cory Koedel, Race and College Success: Evidence from Missouri, 6 Am. Econ. J.: Applied Econ. 20 (2014)

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Mismatch Literature & Grad Rates Cont. 6 4 Michal Kurlaender & Eric Grodsky, Mismatch and the Paternalistic Justification for Selective College Admissions, 86 Soc. Educ. 294, 305-07 (2013) 2 3 Joanne W. Golann et al., Does the “Mismatch Hypothesis” Apply to Hispanic Students at Selective Colleges?, in The Education of the Hispanic Population: Selected Essays at 209, 222-23 (Billie Gastic & Richard R. Verdugo eds., 2013) 2 5 Ben Backes, Do Affirmative Action Bans Lower Minority College Enrollment and Attainment? Evidence from Statewide Bans, 47 J. Hum. Resources 435, 437 (2012) 6 4 Kalena E. Cortes, Do Bans on Affirmative Action Hurt Minority Students? Evidence from the Texas Top 10% Plan, 29 Econ. Educ. Rev. 1110, 1111 (2010) 4 Tongshan Chang & Heather Rose, A Portrait of Underrepresented Minorities at the University of California, 1994–2008, in Equal Opportunity in Higher Education: The Past and Future of California’s Proposition 209, at 83, 98-99 (Eric Grodsky & Michal Kurlaender eds., 2010) 2 5 William G. Bowen et al., Crossing the Finish Line: Completing College at America’s Public Universities 12–16, 227–28 (2009) 2 3 Thomas J. Espenshade & Alexandria Walton Radford, No Longer Separate, Not Yet Equal: Race and Class in Elite College Admission and Campus Life 245 (2009) 2 5 Tatiana Melguizo, Quality Matters: Assessing the Impact of Attending More Selective Institutions on College Completion 7 Rates of Minorities, 49 Res. Higher Educ. 214, 216–17, 223, 232 (2008)

2 3 Mario L. Small & Christopher Winship, Black Students’ Graduation from Elite Colleges: Institutional Characteristics and Between-Institution Differences, 36 Soc. Sci. Res. 1257, 1258, 1272 (2007) 2 3 Mary J. Fischer & Douglas S. Massey, The Effects of Affirmative Action in Higher Education, 36 Soc. Sci. Res. 531, 534 (2007) 2 3 Douglas S. Massey & Margarita Mooney, The Effects of America’s Three Affirmative Action Programs on Academic Performance, 54 Soc. Probs. 99, 114 (2007) 1 Harry J. Holzer & David Neumark, Affirmative Action: What Do We Know? 25 J. Pol’y Analysis & Mgmt. 463, 479 (2006) 2 4 Yuqin Gong, Ill. Educ. Research Council, The Divergence of the River: Examining the Effect of Academic “Mismatch” on College Student’s Early Attrition (2006), available at http://www.siue.edu/ierc/presentations/pdf/ Mismatch2006Symp.pdf 2 3 Sigal Alon & Marta Tienda, Assessing the “Mismatch” 7 Hypothesis: Differences in College Graduation Rates by Institutional Selectivity, 78 Soc. Educ. 294, 296 (2005) 2 3 William G. Bowen & Derek Bok, The Shape of the River (1998) 2 5 Thomas J. Kane, Racial and Ethnic Preferences in College Admissions, in The Black-White Test Score Gap 431, 445– 47 (Christopher Jencks & Meredith Phillips eds., 1998) 8

Studies of Earnings/Wages Tend Not to Support Mismatch Hypothesis •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  • 

Dale & Krueger, 2015 Dillon & Smith, 2015 Eide, Hilmer & Showalter, 2016 Andrews et al., 2012 Long, 2010 Daniel et al., 2001 Monks, 2000 Hoekstra, 2009 (*only studied white males) HBCUs: Fryer & Greenstone, 2010; Ehrenberg et al., 1999; Kane, 1998 9

Cognitive Benefits of Racial Diversity in Higher Education (Simplified Model) College Diversity Experiences (classroom and informal)

Effortful Disequilibrium Discrepancies w/ prior views Adapted from Bowman (2010)

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Research on Benefits of Diversity (AERA et al. Fisher briefs, 2012, 2015) q 

Reduces prejudice and enhances empathy between groups (Pettigrew & Tropp 2006 and 2008), cross-racial understanding (Denson & Chang, 2015; Denson ’09) and cross-group friendships (Davies et al. ’11)

q 

Improved cognitive skills and critical thinking (Bowman 2010; Hurtado 2005; Chang et al. 2006; Antonio et al. 2004)

q 

Civic engagement and pluralistic orientation (Engberg & Hurtado 2011; Bowman 2011; Gurin et al 2004) and workforce leadership skills (Jayakumar 2008; Bowman et al. 2011) 11

Backup Slides (Q&A)

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90%

80% African Am -- Agree African Am -- Somewhat Agree

59.0% avg.

Latino -- Strongly Agree

100%

70% 70%

60% 60%

50% 50%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10%

0% 0%

92.4% avg.

UCB '08 UCB '10 UCB '12 UCD '08 UCD '10 UCD '12 UCI '08 UCI '10 UCI '12 UCLA '08 UCLA '10 UCLA '12 UCSB '08 UCSB '10 UCSB '12 UCSC '08 UCSC '10 UCSC '12 UCSD '08 UCSD '10 UCSD '12

79.9% avg.

AAU #1 '11 AAU #2 '09 AAU #2 '11 UCM '12 UCR '08 UCR '10 UCR '12 UT Austin '10 UT Austin '11

African Am -- Strongly Agree

UCB '08 UCB '10 UCB '12 UCD '08 UCD '10 UCD '12 UCI '08 UCI '10 UCI '12 UCLA '08 UCLA '10 UCLA '12 UCSB '08 UCSB '10 UCSB '12 UCSC '08 UCSC '10 UCSC '12 UCSD '08 UCSD '10 UCSD '12

100%

AAU #1 '11 AAU #2 '09 AAU #2 '11 UCM '12 UCR '08 UCR '10 UCR '12 UT Austin '10 UT Austin '11

Campus Racial Climate Matters

African Americans and Latinos Perceive Students of their Race/ Ethnicity are Less Respected at Research U’s with Lesser Diversity Latino -- Agree Latino -- Somewhat Agree

90%

77.7% avg.

80%

Kidder & Onwuachi-Willig, Texas Law Review (2014) 13