AES Gener March 2016
AES Gener Key investment considerations Highlights
1
2
Asset map
Leading position: Largest energy producer in Chile, and major producer in Colombia, with one of the most efficient plants in Argentina
3 countries
Diversification: One of the most diversified LatAm generator player in terms of geographical footprint and technology
5 technologies
22 operating plants Bogota
4 plants under construction
1 international transmission line Antofagasta
3
Reliable Growth: Secured future growth through fully-financed pipeline and worldclass contractors
4
Stable cash flows: Largely contracted US dollar-denominated revenue streams with built in fuel and inflation protection
5
Strong capital structure: A successful financing history committed to investment grade rating
Santiago
Coal
Hydro
Natural Gas
Diesel
Biomass
1
Introduction Key statistics Data as of December 31, 2015, unless otherwise noted
5,243 MW
of installed capacity(1)
US$3.8bn
market capitalization(2)
1,083 MW
of fully funded capacity under construction(3)
US$1.3bn
remaining capex of the U$4bln 2nd expansion phase fully funded1)
(1) (2) (3)
100%
of baseload energy in Chile sold under long-term PPAs
US$691mm
2015 EBITDA
12.2
years of average remaining PPA life
BBB-/Baa3
credit ratings (S&P, Fitch, Moody’s)
Includes Guacolda. As of February 24, 2016. 152 MW Gucaolda V and 21 MW Andes Solar recently completed
2
Leading position
1
#1 generation player in Chile 27%
26% 18%
Endesa
Colbun
14%
15%
E-CL
Others
Major player in Colombia 21%
21%
19% 14% 10% 6%
EPM
Note:
Emgesa
Isagen
Gecelca
4%
4%
Celsia
EPSA
Others
In GWh, data as of December 31, 2015.
3
Attractive markets with stable regulatory frameworks
1 Chile
Ratings
System Data
Expected Energy Sales Growth (CAGR 2015-2025)
Installed capacity 4,175 MW
88%
97%
Regulated Unregulated
Aa3
Fitch
A+
Installed capacity 15,925 MW Generation 52,899 GWh
Source: Note:
5%
4.1%
45% 70%
Unregulated
CNE, data as of December 2015. Excludes TermoAndes which today exclusively sells to Argentina.
Renewable Thermal
30%
Regulated
SIC
3%
4.8%
AA-
Moody’s
Generation by Fuel Type
12%
Generation 18,800 GWh
SING S&P
Energy Sales (GWh)
50%
Hydro Thermal Other
4
Attractive markets with stable regulatory frameworks (cont’d)
1
Colombia and Argentina
Ratings S&P
Moody’s
BBB
Baa2
System Data Installed capacity 16,221 MW
Expected Energy Sales Growth (CAGR 2015-2025)
BBB
S&P
B-
3.2%
Moody’s
Fitch
Caa1
31%
33% 67%
Generation 66,173 GWh
Regulated Unregulated
Installed capacity 33,353 MW
Generation by Fuel Type
1%
Colombia Fitch
Energy Sales (GWh)
30%
3.5%
CCC
Hydro Thermal Other
6%
13%
Generation 118,507 GWh
68%
47% 40%
Large Customers Residential Commercial
64% Hydro Thermal Other
Argentina
Source:
XM, data as of December 2015 for Colombia and Private Consultants for Argentina.
5
Diversified generation platform
2
EBITDA 2015 - By electric system
Revenues 2015 - By customers
SADI 3%
SIN 36%
US$ 691mm
Spot 6% Regulated 34%
SIC 39%
US$1.4bn Total Chile 61%
Unregulated 60%
SING 22%
Installed capacity - By fuel type US$0.5bn
Biomass Solar Diesel 0.2% 0.4% 8%
Contracted 43%
Spot 57%
Natural gas 20%
5,243 MW
Coal 47% Spot 22%
Hydro 24%
Note:
As of December 31, 2015. SIC: Sistema Interconectado Central. SING: Sistema Interconectado del Norte Grande.
US$0.1bn Contracted 78%
6
2
Reliable growth History of world-class development
2nd Phase Fully Funded (GW)
7
6
5
4
3 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2007 – 2013 Phase I Expansion
US$3bn capital expenditure
Projects successfully completed
1,664 MW of generation plus 32 MW of BESS
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2012 – 2018 Phase II Expansion(1)
US$4bn capital expenditure 1,256 MW Construction on time and budget Guacolda V completed Andes Solar in commissioning tests
New business line: Desalinization Angamos completed Ventanas under development
7
3
Phase I: Successful and disciplined strategy
Since 2007, we have constructed 1,664 MW of new capacity in Chile… Installed Capacity (MW)
Expansionary Projects Executed (~US$3bn)
1
Angamos I & II
2
BESS Norgener
2
BESS Angamos I
1 2 5,057
Antofagasta
545 MW (2 units)
4
Coal
12 MW
20 MW
Battery
Battery
3,393 3
Los Vientos
7 6 3
4
Guacolda III
4
Guacolda IV
Santiago
5 2007
2015
...accounting for ~21% of the Chilean growth
21%
132 MW
152 MW
152 MW
Diesel
Coal
Coal
5
10%
AES Gener
Colbun
10%
EC-L
Santa Lidia
6 Nuevas Ventanas
7
Ventanas IV
7%
139 MW
272 MW
272 MW
Diesel
Coal
Coal
Endesa
8
3
High growth Phase II: Secured fully-funded pipeline US$4bn of fully funded projects under construction(1)
Development checklist
Fully funded plan Environmental approvals and social awareness Platform expansion with competitive advantage Experienced team Strong partners Secure profitability Investment grade rating
531
573 Angamos Desal
152 5,797 5,072
2015
5,224
2016
Guacolda V (152 MW) Completed
Solar-Andes (21 MW) In commissioning tests
Angamos Desalinization Completed
Tunjita (20 MW) Progress: 98%
2018/2019 Alto Maipo (531 MW) Progress: 24%
Cochrane (532 MW) Progress: 94%
9
Stable cash flows
4
Long term, proven and strong commercial strategy
AES Gener strategy
Predictable cash flows EBITDA (US$mm)
Efficient Generation
Long Term Contracts (up to 20 years)
Back-up Generation
Spot Sales
Firm Capacity
Capacity Charge Revenue
~75% of Expected Generation
660
624
671
691
2012
2013
2014
2015
Medium Term Contracts (1-4 years)
EBITDA Margin (%) Remaining Generation
Spot and Frequency Regulation Sales
Firm Energy (~3,000 GWh)
Reliability Charge Revenue
Contract Energy
Energía Plus Contracts (306MW)(1)
Sales to Spot
Resolution 482
28%
28%
29%
2012
2013
2014
32%
2015
Exports to Argentina through 100% owned exclusive transmission line
Note: (1)
Data as of December 31, 2015. Currently contracted 220MW.
10
Contract Strategy Chile
4
Long term, dollarized, indexed contracts
Long term contracted position with an average life of 12 years with a high quality and diversified customer base
No significant maturities until 2024
Efficient portfolio fully aligned with our contracted capacity
AES Gener Contract level
AES Gener Contracts by Sector
25,000
Industrial 8% Distribution 33%
GWh-year
20,000
Contract avg. life: 12 years
15,000
10,000
Mining 59%
5,000
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
11
Strong financial performance and value creation
4
Adjusted EBITDA & EBITDA margin Title
Total debt and net debt / EBITDA (US$ mm)
(US$ mm)
32% 28%
$2,785
$2,734
2.8x
29% $691
$671
$624
$245
3.7x
$3,375
29%
28%
$660
34%
4.5x
3.3x
$246
$263
$209
$2,282
19%
$355
$355
$377
$426
2012
2013
2014
2015
$1,706
24%
$1,487
$1,214
$1,156
14%
$1,298
$1,126
$1,669
$1,520
9% Chile
Argentina
Colombia
Total capex
2012 2013 PF / Non Recourse Debt
$1,002 $830
(US$ mm) 100%
100% 94%
$98 $585
$58
$443
$532
$366
$33
$860
$449
$49
$230
$235
$225
$242
2014
2015
$317 $167
(1)
$477
$210
$286 2013 Construction
$130
$66
$703
$55
2012
2015 Net Debt/EBITDA
Capital allocation
(US$ mm)
$419
2014 Corporate Debt
2014.00 Maintenance
Environmental
2015
2012
(1)
Capex Debt Paydown
2013
Dividends Dividend Payout Ratio
Capex net of project financing.
12
4
Strong capital structure Prudent debt profile
xxx US$ Million Total Outstanding as of December 31, 2015 US$3,507 Million 1,768
Average Cost
5.3%
Average Life
14.5 years
Net Debt/EBITDA
4.5x (2.4x excluding non recourse debt)
51%
49%
Non Recourse Debt
Recourse Debt 559
176 136
162
154
139
172
173
2023
2024
69
2016
2017
2018
2019
97.9% denominated in US$
2020
2021
2022
2025+ 25-73
88.5% at fixed interest rate
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Key Takeaways Growth under AES Corp control
COMPANY 2015 EBITDA HIGHER THAN IN 2014
$20 million higher than last year Better results in Chile partially offset by lower energy margin in Colombia and Argentina
LEADER IN GENERATION IN CHILE
Company contributed with 27% of country generation Operational excellence proven by high availability
DIVERSIFIED AND LONG TERM CONTRACTED ASSET PORTFOLIO
Geographical, technological, customers base and fuel sources Dollarized Long Term PPAs aligned with efficient generation
MOVING FORWARD WITH SECOND EXPANSION PHASE
Guacolda V and desalinization plant successfully completed in 2015 Generator with more projects under construction in Chile Expansion plan fully funded World class partners: GIP, Mitsubishi, Antofagasta Minerals
STRONG AND ENHANCED CAPITAL STRUCTURE
Investment grade rating Strong liquidity Extended debt maturity profile
14
Annex I: Next Bid with distribution companies
Contracts with Distribution Companies Disco Bid 2015-2 Award
Distros prices & Volume 20000.0
140
18000.0 120 100
14000.0 12000.0
80
10000.0 60
8000.0
Volume (GWh)
Price (US$/MWh)
16000.0
6000.0
40
4000.0 20 2000.0
Price (US$/MWh)
Source: Systep
E-CL SING
PUNTILLA
PANGUIPULLI
PUYEHUE
DIEGO DE ALMAGRO
MONTE REDONDO
CAMPANARIO
GUACOLDA
AES GENER
COLBUN
ENDESA
0
Energy (GWh-year) 16
Distribution Company Bids Disco Bid 2015-2 Award
Proponent
Price per Existing Energy from Parent Energy Energy Energy Projects Company (GW/year) block (GWh/year) (GWh/year)
In Operation
Projects
Andes Mainstream
768
79.32
87
681
Abengoa
Abengoa
39
97.00
-
39
Thermosolar CSP + PV (110 CSP + 100 PV)
Ibereólica Cabo Los Leones
Ibereolica
195
89.31
-
195
Cabo Los Leones Wind Park I (170 MW)
Aela Generación S.A.
SCB II SpA
First Solar
88
67.64
88
-
Amuche Solar
Solar Pack
110
64.85
-
110
1,200
79.34
175
1,025
Cuel Eolic Park (33 Sarco (238 MW) and Alena MW) (108 MW) eolic parks
Luz del Norte Unit 1 Luz del Norte Units 3 & 4 (36 MW) and Unit 2 (67 MW) (38 MW) Los Libertadores Solar Park (16 MW) La Constitución Solar Park (48 MW)
17
Upcoming Bid Schedule
2015-01
Tender Call
May 29, 2015
Question & Answers
December 30, 2015
Date of proposals
April 20, 2016
Award
May 10, 2016
Supply
January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2041
Awarding Mechanism • Levelized price of energy • Fuel indexes: Annual Energy Outlook 2015 from EIA • Indexed price present value @10% Disco Bid Energy [GWh] 2015-01 (2021+20 years) BS1+BS2 2015-01 (2022+20 years) BS3 Total
Change of law •
Future: 2% variation of capital or operation cost of contract execution
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028 +
6,600
6,600
6,600
6,600
6,600
6,600
6,600
6,600
-
7,150
7,150
7,150
7,150
7,150
7,150
7,150
6,600
13,750
13,750
13,750
13,750
13,750
13,750
13,750
Next Disco Bids • The following Disco Bids are expected according to CNE projections: • 3,000 since 2023+20 years (Tender call 2016) • 8,000 since 2024+20 years (Tender call 2017)
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Annex II: Angamos & Guacolda
Angamos Summary of Historical Financials Revenues
EBITDA and EBITDA Margin
(US$ millions)
(US$ millions)
$332
150
$308
$298
$81
$133
$83
100% $ 127
$284 $44
$225
$198
60%
$214
40%
50
$238
41.5%
38.4%
38.8%
39.9%
2012
2013
2014
2013 Spot
2014
12%
EBITDA
Other
12
7.0x 7% 6.5x
2%
1%
$112
10
8%
4.1x
6.4x
8% 7.1x
8 6 4 $26
3.0x
3.1x
3.0x
2.5x
0%
2 $5
0 2011 CFO/Debt
EBITDA Margin
(US$ millions)
12%
10%
4%
2015
Capital Expenditures
11.0x
6%
20% 0%
2011
2015
Credit Metrics
12%
38.9%
0 2012 Contracted
14%
80%
$ 111
$ 72
$38 2011
$ 112
100
$174
$137
$ 119
2012
2013 Debt/EBITDA
2014
$11
$11
2014
2015
2015
EBITDA/Finance Expense
2011
2012
2013
20
Guacolda Summary of Historical Financials Revenues
EBITDA and EBITDA Margin
(US$ millions)
(US$ millions)
$613 $554
$515
$165
180.0
$438
50% 45%
160.0 140.0
$129
$117
30%
120.0 100.0
$122
35%
25%
30%
28%
80.0 60.0
5%
-
2013
2014
20%
10%
20.0
2012
25%
15%
19%
40.0
40%
0%
2012
2015
2013 EBITDA
Capital Expenditures
2014
2015
EBITDA margin
Credit Metrics
(US$ millions) 7.0
7.0x
7.2x
8
6.2x 7
6.0
$342
5.1x 5.0
6
4.6x
5 4.0
4
2.9x 3.0
$115
$98
3
3.9x
3.7x $125
2.0
2 1.0
1 0
-
2012 2012
2013
2014
2015
2013 Net Debt / EBITDA
2014
2015
EBITDA / Finance Expenses
21
Annex III: Major Assets
Diversified Asset Portfolio SIC coal – fired plants: 1,644 MW
Ventanas Complex
Back – up plants: 816 MW
− 4 Units
Nueva Renca − 379 MW – LNG / Diesel
− 884 MW - Coal
− Located in Santiago
− Located in Valparaíso Region − Start of operations: 1964/1977/2010/2013
− Start of operations: 1997
Other plants: 437 MW
Hydro run-of-river plants and renewables: 284 MW
Guacolda Complex
Alfalfal I
− 5 Units
− 178 MW – Hydro Run-of-River
− 760 MW - Coal
− Located 50 km from Santiago
− Located in Huasco (Northern part of the SIC)
− Start of operations: 1991
− Start of operations: 1995/1996/2009/2010/2015
Other plants: 106 MW − 93 MW – Other Hydro Run-of-River − 13 MW - Biomass
23
Diversified Asset Portfolio SING coal plants: 822 MW
Colombia: 1,000 MW
Norgener
AES Chivor
− 2 units
− 8 Units
− 277 MW – Coal
− 1,000 MW - Hydro
− Located in Tocopilla
− Located in Boyacá, Colombia
− Start of operations: 1995/1997
− Start of operations: 1977/1981
Argentina: 643 MW
Angamos − 2 units − 545 MW – Coal
TermoAndes − Combined Cycle (2 Gas Turbines and 1 Steam Turbine) − 643 MW – Natural Gas
− Located in Mejillones
− Located in Salta, Argentina
− Start of operations: 2011
− Start of operations: 1999
Battery storage (BESS) & Solar: 53 MW
Battery Storage: 32 MW − Norgener and Angamos − Start of operations: 2009/2011
Solar: 21 MW − Adjacent to Andes Substation − Start of operations: 2016
24
Annex IV: Other Financial information
Wide access to capital Successful financing for US$7bn growth Confirmation of investment grade rating by 3 agencies through a diversified financing strategy
Sources of Financing for the Expansions(1)
Amount (US$ million)
Cash from Operations
710
Capital Increases
668
Equity
Partners
682 International
300
Local
415
Bonds
Debt Banks
(1)
Project Finance
4,225
First and Second Phases: From 2007 – 2018.
26
Solid Performance Significant value creation for shareholders The largest total return to shareholders since 2010(1)… 250
AES Gener +93%
200
Colbún +40%
150
E-CL +40% Endesa +27%
100
IPSA +2%
50
0 2010
2011
2012
2013
… with an attractive dividend yield(2)…
4.5%
2015
2016
… and the highest payout ratio among peers(3) 6.3%
5.9%
2014
98%
5.2% 50%
41% 30%
2012 Source: (1) (2) (3)
2013
2014
Bloomberg as of February 24, 2015. In Chilean pesos, including dividends. LTM dividends paid / market capitalization end of period. Last 3 years average.
2015
Endesa
Colbun
EC-L
27