A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY INVENTORY OF SOCIETAL, SCIENTIFIC, INNOVATION TRENDS TOWARDS 2025

TECHNOLOGICAL

Draft final report

By: IDEA Consult Arnold Verbeek*, Els van de Velde en Tine Maenhout

For: Flemish Council for Science and Innovation (VRWI)

* Corresponding (lead) author Email: [email protected] Tel.: 02 282 17 19

Brussels, December 2012

IDEA Consult nv Kunstlaan 1-2, bus 16 B –1210 Brussel

Tel: (+32) 02 282 17 10 Fax: (+32) 02 282 17 15

AND

Table of contents 1.

LIST OF MAIN ABBREVIATIONS

4

2.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

6

3.

SETUP AND VISION

7

VRWI Foresight trajectory ______________________________________________________________________ 7 Vision 7 Operationalization_____________________________________________________________________________ 8 Transition Areas ______________________________________________________________________________ 9 Guide to the reader ___________________________________________________________________________ 11

4.

OUTLOOK ON INTERNATIONAL FORWARD LOOKING ACTIVITIES

12

Introduction _________________________________________________________________________________ 12 European Commission ________________________________________________________________________ 12 Nations _____________________________________________________________________________________ 15 A comparative overview.............................................................................................................................. 15 In focus: United States................................................................................................................................ 22 In focus: China ............................................................................................................................................ 23 In focus: India .............................................................................................................................................. 24

5.

SOCIETY AND CHALLENGES

25

Introduction _________________________________________________________________________________ 25 Challenges faced ____________________________________________________________________________ 25 Group 1: Health, demographic change and well-being ............................................................................. 27 Group 2: Inclusive and changing societies ............................................................................................... 28 Group 3: Natural resources ........................................................................................................................ 31 Group 4: Energy transition ......................................................................................................................... 33 Group 5: Physical space, mobility and time .............................................................................................. 34 Group 6: Global economy and global labour force ................................................................................... 36 Comparison with ViA and VSDO ________________________________________________________________ 38

6.

SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION TRENDS

40

Introduction _________________________________________________________________________________ 40 Social Sciences and Humanities ________________________________________________________________ 42 Advanced Materials __________________________________________________________________________ 46 ICT

_____________________________________________________________________________________ 48

Nanotechnology _____________________________________________________________________________ 51 Biotechnology _______________________________________________________________________________ 53 Photonics___________________________________________________________________________________ 56 Advanced manufacturing technologies __________________________________________________________ 57 Health _____________________________________________________________________________________ 60 Water _____________________________________________________________________________________ 62 Food and agriculture _________________________________________________________________________ 63

2

Environment ________________________________________________________________________________ 65 Systems research ____________________________________________________________________________ 66 Energy 67 Cognitive neurosciences ______________________________________________________________________ 69 Knowledge Intensive Business Services _________________________________________________________ 71 Security ____________________________________________________________________________________ 73 Mobility and transport ________________________________________________________________________ 75

7.

IDENTIFIED TRANSITION AREAS

77

Introduction _________________________________________________________________________________ 77 Transition areas _____________________________________________________________________________ 78 T1: Society 2.0 _______________________________________________________________________________ 79 T2: Life enhancement: introduction _____________________________________________________________ 83 T2.1: Life enhancement: food and agriculture related ______________________________________________ 84 T2.2: Life enhancement: health related __________________________________________________________ 89 T3: Smart resources management ______________________________________________________________ 95 T4: Urban planning and mobility dynamics ______________________________________________________ 101 T5: New energy demand and delivery___________________________________________________________ 106

ANNEXES

113

1. References_______________________________________________________________________________ 114 2. Websites consulted _______________________________________________________________________ 120 3. Steering Committee VRWI foresight study 2025 ________________________________________________ 124 4. Agenda foresight camp ____________________________________________________________________ 123

3

1. LIST OF MAIN ABBREVIATIONS BMBF

German Federal Ministry of Education and Research

CAS

Chinese Academy of Sciences

CCS

Carbon Capture and Storage

CHP

Combined Heat and Power

CMOS

Complementary Metal–Oxide–Semiconductor

CSF

Common Strategic Framework

CSP

Concentrated Solar Power

DDoS

Distributed Denial-of-Service

DNA

Deoxyribo Nucleic Acid

EC

European Commission

EERA

European Energy Research Alliance

EMR

Electronic Medical Records

ERTMS

European Rail Traffic Management System

FAO

Food and Agricultural Organization

FCH

Fuel Cells and Hydrogen

GHG

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

GM

Genetic Modification

GMO

Genetically Modified Organism

GPS

Global Positioning System

HD

High-Definition

IoT

Internet of Things

IP

Internet Protocol

ITER

International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

ITS

Intelligent Transport Systems

KET

Key Enabling Technologies

KI business services

Knowledge Intensive Business Services

MRI

Magnetic Resonance Imaging

OECD

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

OEM

Original Equipment Manufacturers

PC

Polycarbonate

PV

Photovoltaic

RFID

Radio Frequency Identification

RNA

Ribo Nucleic Acid

SESAR

Single European Sky ATM Research

SET

Strategic Energy Technology

SET-Group

SET-Plan Steering Group

SET-Plan

European Strategic Energy Technology Plan

SETIS

SET-Plan Information System

SME

Small and Medium Enterprises

4

SSH

Socio-Economic Sciences and Humanities

SSL

Solid-State Lighting

STI

Science, Technology and Innovation

UKCIP

United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme

UN

United Nations

UNEP

United Nations Environment Programme

ViA

Flanders in Action

VRWI

Flemish Council for Science and Innovation

VSDO

Flemish Strategy for Sustainable Development

5

2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The real value of a forward looking exercise (or foresight study) lies in the process itself, the collective interaction between different stakeholders in their appreciation of future trends and potential policy implications. This process, however, needs to be guided and supported by opinions, information and facts and figures. The underlying report aims to provide selected insights and to inform this process. This report is largely based on the reflections and insights gathered by other colleagueresearchers from knowledge institutions, governments, industry, and social organisations, reported through various means (reports, briefings etc.). We have done our utmost to adequately acknowledge and cite these original contributions. In particular, we would like to express our appreciation towards the foresight work that has been conducted by the European Commission and primarily, the SSH Directorate. Furthermore, we build extensively on the valuable work carried out by the United Nations, national and international government agencies and sector federations, the European Technology Platforms, national research organisations and several trend watchers. We would also like to thank the various experts that have participated in the interviews and the ‘foresight camp’. Next, we would like to thank the members of the executive committee of the VRWI for their valuable comments and suggestions. Last but not least, we are very grateful for the patience and active support provided by our project officer, Elie Ratinckx, of the VRWI.

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3. SETUP AND VISION VRWI Foresight trajectory For over a decade, research, technology and innovation policy choices in Flanders have been influenced by forward looking activities, particularly by the foresight studies carried out by the 1 2 3 4 Flemish Council for Science and Innovation (VRWI) , , , . The last major study was carried out in 2006 and has led to the identification of six strategic clusters which were further 5 elaborated in 2008.

    

Transport - Services - Logistics - supply chain management IT and Healthcare services Healthcare - Food - prevention and treatment New materials - Nanotechnology - processing industry IT for Socio-economic Innovation Energy and Environment for service and processing industry

In 2012-2013, a new foresight trajectory has been initiated by the VRWI which aims to identify new (or confirm already known) scientific, technological and innovation developments and solutions as a response to existing and emerging (grand) societal challenges faced in the run up to 2025. This foresight trajectory consists of four phases: 1) Preparatory phase: a. Identification and matching of societal challenges and science, technology and innovation developments and trends in transition areas; b. Quantitative analysis of Flanders’ strengths and weakness in specific scientific, technological areas and economic sectors. 2) Prioritization and selection of relevant transition areas combining societal challenges with solutions stemming from science, technology and innovation; 3) Prioritization and selection of science, technology and innovation solutions under each of the identified priority transition areas; 4) Reporting and dissemination. Underlying report contains the results of the part of the first phase (a), the preparatory phase.

Vision The objective of the first phase (a) is to: Identify and map major societal challenges, science, technology and innovation developments and trends, and establish an interlinkage between societal challenges and potential solutions stemming from science, technology and innovation.

1

Flemish Science Policy Council (2006), “Technology and Innovation in Flanders: Priorities”, Proces van Prioriteitsstelling en Resultaten

2

Flemish Science Policy Council (2004), “De chemische industrie in Vlaanderen”, Wetenschaps- en technologisch innovatiebeleid – Behoeften en knelpunten

3

Flemish Science Policy Council (2002), Tussen stuwen en sturen. Acta van het Colloquium.

4

Flemish Science Policy Council (2004), “De Voedingsindustrie in Vlaanderen”,

5

Flemish Science Policy Council (2008), “Six Clusters and their spearheads”

7

During this phase no choices are made. Instead a window of opportunity is created for future policy making, which will allow for prioritization in the next phases of the foresight trajectory. The study focuses on potential developments that may occur on the path towards 2025, a time frame that makes it feasible to identify future challenges and trends with an acceptable level of certainty. Several developments, however, may become relevant sooner or later, depending on numerous external or internal factors and conditions. The time dimension of specific developments will be pinpointed via the so-called Delphi survey, in which specific statements will be presented to a large and diverse group of respondents. The survey will, among other things, enquire about when a certain development is expected, what the impact might be, and how various actors should or could respond to it. The Delphi survey will take place in the next phase of the foresight trajectory and will be managed by the VRWI. Moreover, further micro/technical operationalization of the societal challenges and potential solutions in transition areas identified here will have to take place in the subsequent phases of the foresight process by various experts. The underlying report aims to provide a basic framework. Substantial and varied background material and sources have been consulted. The work of the European Commission, including various policy options and choices, has been taken on board and been carefully considered. As in the previous foresight rounds, the European dimension forms a very important building block, as the Flanders region is well-embedded in the European socio-economic framework. At the same time, future-focused studies on major economies like the US, China and India have also been considered wherever possible and relevant. Finally, the perspective taken during this preparatory phase can be described as “optimistic” - meaning that we assume that no major (unforeseen) disruptive events will take place, and that the current economic crisis can be contained (and reversed), leading to the necessary financial and economic space to make new and/or adjust existing policy choices. Optimism, reflected in the various consulted reports and experts, is also the general sphere and attitude under which current report has been developed.

Operationalization The first phase (a) of the foresight trajectory (underlying study) followed a number of steps, as illustrated in the figure below. Figure 1: Study approach

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The research work started in July 2012 and was been completed in January 2013. During the literature screening and analysis phase, numerous national and international reports (studies, policy statements, opinions etc.) were screened and analysed (see Annexes 1 and 2 for an overview). Similarly, numerous websites have also been consulted. This step resulted in an exhaustive overview of trends and developments. Equipped with these first insights and results, the study team carried out 28 interviews (face to face or telephone) with national and international experts (see Annex 3 for an overview of the experts) about their vision of the future and the underlying anticipated trends and developments. All experts selected for the interviews participated on their own personal behalf. The objective of these interviews has been to explore and refine, but not to validate or make choices. th

On the 27 of November 2012, a foresight camp (workshop) took place involving 20 experts (see Annex 4 for an overview of the experts). These experts, the majority of whom were also interviewed, were asked to discuss and reflect on potential linkages between identified societal challenges and potential solutions stemming from science, technology and innovation (structured in so-called “transitions areas”) from their own personal perspective. The foresight camp consisted of a number of reflection sessions (breakout groups and plenary discussions). The agenda can be found in Annex 5. The outcome of the literature and field phase is presented in the report below. Versions of the underlying working document were also presented, discussed and validated in the steering committee of the VRWI foresight project, consisting of Captains of Industry and th Captains of Society (see Annex 6 for a list of the members of the steering committee) on 20 th of November 2012 and 12 of December 2012. Additionally, the study was also presented, nd discussed and validated by the VRWI on the 22 of November 2012 and 31th of January 2013. At the very outset of the preparatory phase, the foresight process was also announced externally: a new website has been developed (www.VRWIforFlanders2025.be) in order to inform the broader stakeholders about the foresight study, the objectives and expected results.

Transition Areas Whereas in previous Flemish foresight exercises, the perspective was mainly scientific and/or technological, in this new cycle a broader perspective has been taken by devoting more attention to societal challenges and by introducing a link between societal problems and potential solutions stemming from science, technology and/or innovation. This vision rests on the premise that societal challenges can only be addressed by combining solutions from different multidisciplinary science-technology and/or socio-economic fields, including insights and solutions from the social sciences and humanities. There is an increasing understanding that no single science or technology field is likely to lead to radical breakthrough innovations in the near future: solutions are found in the combination of science and technology fields and innovations, and also in the alignment of innovations from technological and socio-economic spheres. We will refer to these combinatory areas as Transition Areas, inspired by the work of 6,7 8 Warnke. Transition areas (or ‘transformational fields’) show the following characteristics:

6

Warnke P., (2012), “Towards Transformative Innovation Priorities”, European Foresight Platform”, EFP Brief No. 211

7

Warnke P., (2011), “Embedding transformative priorities into the STI landscape – Experience from the BMBF foresight system”, Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis, Sevilla

8

Ibid.

9



Shared: transformative priorities will not be defined in a top-down manner but through bottom-up participatory processes.



Inclusive: new actor groups such as citizens, technology users and social entrepreneurs will have a major role in defining and implementing transformative priorities.



Hybrid: they transcend disciplinary boundaries, particularly those between social sciences and humanities on the one hand and engineering and natural sciences on the other and address socio-technical issues in a transdisciplinary manner. At the same time they will extend the notion of RTI from research labs and engineering offices into society to include social and organizational innovation.



Experimental/tentative: they will have clear goals. Nevertheless the solution adopted to achieve these goals will rarely be fixed upfront but, rather, will evolve through the implementation process.



(Extra)-systemic: they will adopt the systemic perspective required to modulate coevolutionary trajectories.



Glocal: they may be adopted across several regions, nations as well as on an European or even global level. 9

Without going into detail here, Geels and Schot (2007) also provide a typology of four different transition pathways differing in their combinations of the timing and nature of multilevel interactions. For example, (1) Transformation (e.g. the Dutch hygienic transition from cesspools to sewer systems); (2) Reconfiguration (e.g. the American transition from traditional factories to mass production); (3) Technological Substitution (e.g. the British transition from sailing ships to steamships) and (4) De-alignment and Re-alignment (e.g. the American transition from horse drawn carriages to automobiles). By following the logic of transition areas, a different (more integrated/holistic) approach is required with respect to innovation policy making. In the German BMBF foresight study on which the framework of the present study is based, the notion of transition areas has been used to identify new mobilizing cross-cutting areas (see Figure 2) by linking societal challenges to insights/potential solutions stemming from the relevant science, technology and innovation fields.

9

Geels, F. W., & Schot, J. (2007). Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways. Research Policy, 36, 399-477.

10

Figure 2: Illustration interrelation between societal challenges and key starting fields (potential STI solutions)

Source: IDEA Consult

Science and technology are today (still) largely organized from a ‘field’ or ‘disciplinary’ perspective. This perspective is more or less followed in the underlying study, in the sense 10 that for each so-called ‘starting field’ the main trends and developments towards 2025 have been mapped. On the other hand, societal challenges and needs have also been mapped extensively. Subsequently, on the basis of combinations (interrelations) of societal challenges and potential scientific or technological solutions, 5 ‘transition areas’ have been identified and described (with the support of thematic experts). These transition areas (see chapter 6) will be further refined in the subsequent phases of the foresight process.

Guide to the reader In chapter 3, a snapshot of the most important findings stemming from major international forward looking studies all over the world (Europe, US, China, India, and several EU Member States) is provided. In chapter 4, a detailed overview of the most important societal challenges grouped into 6 major clusters is presented. Chapter 5 contains an overview of science, technology and innovation trends and developments. In chapter 6, the transition areas – a combination of societal challenges and science, technology and innovation solutions - are presented. This report is also accompanied by a number of annexes.

10

These are key science, technology and innovation fields analysed in the 2006/7 VRWI foresight study and the more recent foresight process carried out by the German BMBF (see also chapter 5 for a motivation of this selection).

11

4. OUTLOOK ON INTERNATIONAL FORWARD LOOKING ACTIVITIES Introduction The objective of this chapter is to present the highlights of a selection of forward looking studies carried out in other regions and/or countries of the world, largely because they provide a source of inspiration. In several instances, the outcomes of these studies have been translated into key policy areas and priorities. We start with a perspesctive of the European Commission, followed by a focused review of a number of national forward looking studies and associated policy priorities. The presented overview does not intend to be exhaustive.

European Commission 11 12

European context ,

 Europe’s average economic growth rate has been structurally lower than that of its main economic partners, largely due to a productivity gap that has widened over the last decade. Much of this is due to differences in business structures combined with lower levels of investment in R&D and innovation; insufficient use of information and communications technologies; reluctance in some parts of society to embrace innovation; barriers to market access and a less dynamic business environment.

 Europe's employment rates (at 69% on average for those aged 20-64) are still significantly lower than in other parts of the world. Only 63% of women are at work compared to 76% of men. Only 46% of older workers (55-64) are employed compared to over 62% in the US and Japan. Moreover, on average Europeans work 10% hours less than their US or Japanese counterparts.

 The ageing of the European population is accelerating. As the baby-boom generation retires, the EU's active population will start to shrink from 2013/2014. The number of people aged over 60 is now increasing twice as fast as it did before 2007 – by about two million per year compared to one million previously. The combination of a smaller working population and a higher share of retired people will place additional strains on our welfare systems. In combination with global challenges…

 Countries such as China 13 and India are investing heavily in research and technology in order to move their industries up the value chain and "leapfrog" into the global economy. As these countries develop, new markets will open up for many European companies. Recent figures show that China and India are moving from competition based on imitation and low cost, to competition based on new and innovative products. Their young populations also seem to be well disposed to novelty, both as producers and consumers 14 of innovation.

11

European Commission, “EUROPE 2020 A strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth”, Brussels, 3.3.2010, COM (2010)

12

European Commission (2010), “Inventory of Forward Looking Studies with a focus beyond 2030”, Global Europe 2030-2050, European Commission Expert Group, European Research Area

13

Kygne, J. (2011), “China Shakes The World. The Rise of a Hungry Nation”

14

European Commission (2011), “Global Europe 2050”, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities

12

 The availability of easy credit, short-termism and excessive risk-taking in financial markets around the world fuelled speculative behaviour, giving rise to bubble-driven growth and significant imbalances. Europe is seeking finding global solutions to bring about an efficient and sustainable financial system.

 Climate and resource challenges require drastic action. Strong dependence on fossil fuels such as oil and inefficient use of raw materials expose our consumers and businesses to harmful and costly price shocks, threatening our economic security and contributing to climate change. The expansion of the world population will intensify global competition for natural resources, and put pressure on the environment. The socio-economic performance of Europe combined with a number of major worldwide developments, have urged Europe to act. As a follow-up on the strategy outlined in the Treaty of Lisbon, the European Commission (EC) presented a future vision: ‘Europe 2020 - A strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth’ which was subsequently adopted by the European Council. The main vision underlying this strategy is to turn Europe’s socioeconomic development in a direction which delivers high levels of employment, productivity and social cohesion. In this vision, three mutually reinforcing priorities have been put forward: 1) Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation; 2) Sustainable growth: promoting a more resource efficient, greener and more competitive economy; 3) Inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion. The EC has set out seven flagship initiatives to catalyse progress under each priority theme:

 "Innovation Union" - to improve framework conditions and access to finance for research and innovation so as to ensure that innovative ideas can be turned into products and services which create growth and jobs.

 "Youth on the move" - to enhance the performance of education systems and to facilitate the entry of young people to the labour market.

 "A digital agenda for Europe" - to speed up the roll-out of high-speed internet and reap the benefits of a digital single market for households and firms.

 "Resource efficient Europe"

- to help decouple economic growth from the use of 15 resources, support the shift towards a low carbon economy , increase the use of renewable energy sources, modernise our transport sector and promote energy efficiency.

 "An industrial policy for the globalisation era" - to improve the business environment, notably for SMEs, and to support the development of a strong and sustainable industrial base able to compete globally.

 "An agenda for new skills and jobs" - to modernise labour markets and empower people 16

by developing their of skills throughout the lifecycle with a view to increasing labour participation and better match labour supply and demand, including through labour mobility.

 "European platform against poverty" - to ensure social and territorial cohesion such that the benefits of growth and jobs are widely shared and people experiencing poverty and social exclusion are enabled to live in dignity and take an active part in society.

15

European Climate Foundation (2010), “Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous low carbon Europe”, study carried out by McKinsey

16

European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (2010), “Skills supply and demand in Europe”, Medium-Term Forecast, up to 2020

13

Of major importance is the “Innovation Union” flagship initiative. This initiative commits the 17 European Commission :

 To complete the European Research Area; to develop a strategic research agenda focused on challenges such as energy security, transport, climate change and resource efficiency, health and ageing, environmentally-friendly production methods and land management and to enhance joint programming with Member States and regions.

 To improve framework conditions for business to innovate (i.e. create the single EU Patent and a specialized Patent Court; modernise the framework of copyright and trademarks; improve access of SMEs to Intellectual Property Protection; speed up setting of interoperable standards; improve access to capital and make full use of demand side policies, e.g. through public procurement and smart regulation).

 To launch 'European Innovation Partnerships' between the EU and national levels to speed up the development and deployment of the technologies required to meet the challenges identified. The first will include: 'building the Bio-economy by 2020', 'the key enabling technologies to shape Europe's industrial future' and 'technologies to allow older people to live independently and be active in society'. There is a clear consensus about the usefulness and importance of forward looking activities (foresight and forecasting) in building Europe’s future i.e. through the identification and 18 monitoring of grand challenges and associated solutions. When preparing for the Common Strategic Framework (CSF) for research and innovation, the EC organized a workshop in Brussels in 2011, with over sixty European forward-looking practitioners from the research community, industry and civil society organizations 19 attending. The main conclusions derived from this workshop are (EC, 2011, p. 5): 1) A new model of open and collaborative innovation driven by users should be developed recognising the role of innovative ‘ecosystems’ encompassing both technological and non-technological aspects such as social, economic and cultural forces. 2) Technological developments and social demands could be translated in future crosscutting research and innovation fields such as ‘Human-Technology cooperation’ (machines interpreting information, better knowledge of human brain, etc.), ‘Sustainable living spaces and infrastructures for the future’, ‘Environmentally friendly and individually tailored solutions’, ‘Renewing services and production by digital 20 means’, ‘Manufacturing on demand’ and ‘Urban mining’ . 3) While Europe has to increase cohesion and convergence on research and innovation among EU countries, in the newly global innovation networks it has also to intensify the contacts with world scientific leaders and emerging countries. 4) European Union research and innovation should grapple with major global societal challenges like natural resource depletion, energy and climate change and urbanization, whilst at the same time tackling EU concerns of ageing, productivity and social cohesion. The nexus and interactions between the (exact) sciences and social sciences and humanities, between engineering and social issues, between grand challenges and citizens’ daily lives are increasingly relevant.

17

European Commission, “Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative – Innovation Union, SEC(2010) 1161 final, Brussels, 6 October 2010

18

European Council (2009), Brussels

19

European Commission (2011), “European forward-looking activities: building the future of ‘Innovation Union’ and ERA”

20

This new way of thinking has been introduced in the BMDF foresight process, and provides an excellent starting point for further framing and conceptualizing foresight exercises in Flanders.

14

Nations A comparative overview In the table below we present a comparative overview of the R&D and innovation priorities of a group of selected countries (see also VRWI report 24 ”The 1%-target for public expenditure on R&D: International Benchmark’ for a systematic description and analysis of a selection of international strategic innovation agendas”). Most of the reviewed forward looking studies do not attempt to define the grand challenges driving research and innovation activities, but rather, adopt them from well-known documents such as the Millennium Goals. The following societal challenges are mentioned explicitly in 21 several foresight exercises :

           

Energy (securing energy supply and de-carbonizing energy production through new sources and efficient use) Counteracting climate change Preserving biodiversity Food safety and security Preserving ecosystems services/securing a clean environment Adapting to climate change Securing water supply Combating chronic and infectious diseases Handling global conflicts Understanding and dealing with changes in the social fabric, particularly demographic change and also diversity Ensuring well-being and quality of life Ensuring resource security.

Transformative breakthrough priorities (‘transition areas’), combining science and technology with social and cultural innovation (and through experimentation), are increasingly mentioned in different foresight studies. Moreover, to a large extent there is even convergence between several countries. The following transformative breakthroughs have been identified in other 22 foresight studies:

     

Energy transition (energy generation, storage, distribution, understanding and modelling human behaviour, service innovation). Bio-resource management (agricultural technologies, industrial biotechnology, understanding and modelling human behaviour). Sustainable patterns of production and consumption (production technologies and concepts, systems thinking, understanding and modelling human behaviour, services innovation, green housing etc.). Human-technology continuum (lab-on-a-chip/bio-electronics, performance enhancers, brain modelling, brain-computer interface, secure communication, trust, assistive systems etc.). Infrastructure transition (transport technologies, smart grids, service innovation, next generation networks). Living spaces (sustainable construction materials, green/smart housing, service innovation, human behaviour, agricultural technologies).

These transition areas have also inspired the identification process of relevant transition areas for Flanders.

21

Warnke P., (2012), “Towards Transformative Innovation Priorities”, European Foresight Platform”, EFP Brief No. 211

22

Ibid.

15

Table 1: Comparative overview of R&D and innovation priorities in selected countries (priorities are not presented in sequence of importance to the country in question)

France

Germany

China

India

UK

Brazil

Russia

Estonia

Japan

South Korea

Nuclear energy, including thermonuclear fusion

Renewable energy

Environmental concerns & renewable energy focus

Nuclear energy

Climate change, energy (biofuels) & sustainable development

Renewable energy

Environment, energy efficiency (‘Rational utilisation of nature’ is one of eight strategic S&T areas, for example: bury toxic waste, restore water quality, etc.; Power engineering & energy saving is other S&T area for focus, for example: create powersaving transportation systems, heat and electricity distribution & consumption systems, etc.)

Natural science

Energy

Chemicals

(Major priority: receives the most funding from all the strategic priority fields, however funding is in decline; intentions for fast breeder reaction cycle technologies development)

(South Korea’s chemical industry is entering a leadership position on the global market, making investments in energy resources, a shift to high value added products and exploration of environmentally friendly technologies a necessity)

(Seeking the continual reduction of GHG emissions by nuclear research th in 4 generation systems or more economical reactors which yield less waste; Hosting the ITER at Cadarache which is the main experimental nuclear fusion reactor around the world)

(Need for applied research and innovation; potential of solar energy in Northern Africa)

(Nanomaterials, maglev trains, developing energy & water resources, etc)

(Key areas: nuclear physics, reactor engineering, fuel reprocessing, waste management and materials research & metallurgy)

(Climate change: UKCIP centre coordinates research over climate change, national adaptation program focuses on fields such as agriculture, forestry and others; energy (biofuels): 5 main themes are technology and policy assessment, energy & environment, energy supply, energy demand & energy systems, recently there is an increased focus on

(Focus on wind and solar energy)

(Creation of competitive research environment, attractive career conditions & better R&D)

16

France

Germany

China

India

UK

Brazil

Russia

Estonia

Japan

Life sciences (Future developments encompass cell technologies, R&D in stem cells, bioengineering & biosensor technologies)

Agricultural development (Increasing applied research in order to meet agricultural challenges of the future and be successful member of European research & economic community)

Fishing/whaling (Amidst international criticism because research on whales is alleged to be a cover for commercial whaling; destruction by 2011 earthquake requires huge rebuilding and innovation as all major fishing) ports were destroyed)

Nanotech (Nano systems industry and materials is one of eight S&T areas of focus for

Medical & health services (national programs to solve socioeconomic issues will

Social infrastructure (Future developments focus on ocean & earth observation

South Korea

biomass as an energy source) Sustainable development (Accelerate convergence between environment & development, local & global action, private initiative & public action)

Climate research + global food supply

Biotech

Medical innovation (Committee will head the strategy process, with a focus on 5 stages in the innovation

(Focus on nanobiotech to fight cancer and additional infectious

(These investigation programs have a rather external focus, focusing on global cooperation & technology transfer projects)

Agricultural development (Continuing concentration on agriculture)

Medicine & public welfare (Enhance R&D level of pharmaceutical industry; develop

Food supply + agricultural research (Many challenges like food demands, climate change, small landholdings in the presence of emerging agribusiness, etc. Vision is ‘farmer first’: focus areas are food supply chain, natural resource & biodiversity conservation, climate change, sustainable technologies and publicprivateinternational cooperation) Biotechnology (Focus on health science biotechnology such as foods and

Medical research (Four main research areas: genetics and development, infections and

Semi-conductors (Korean semiconductor industry is expanding in a healthy Asian market)

17

France

Germany

China

India

UK

diseases)

chain: medical equipment, R&D, clinical validation, financing & tapping global healthcare markets)

biological, agricultural & pharmaceutical technologies)

inflammation)

Math, physics & chemistry

Microsystems & nanotechnology (Support goes mostly to smalland mediumsized companies and focuses on collaborative projects. Nearly half of the nanotech firms in Europe are German-based)

IT improvement (with a focus on the financial sector)

ICT + computing technologies (Focus on creation of exportoriented software industry through development of low-cost, high-quality software. EUINCOOP project aims to develop a joint research roadmap and stimulate cooperation between India & Europe in computing technologies)

ICT

Biotechnology

(High-tech research is a

(Cutting-edge technological

(12% of civilian budget is devoted to maths, science & chemistry for developments in R&D)

Information technology (two fold plan: increase research

Russia

Estonia

Japan

immunity, neurosciences and structural biology)

Russia)

include healthcare & welfare services)

systems)

Information technology

Artificial intelligence: robotics & micro-system technologies (Russia’s position is most significant in development of modelling technologies and applications of information technologies, AI technologies and technologies for parallel and distributed data processing)

Information & communication technologies

(Remain among the leading countries in information and communication technology)

Electronics & nanotechnology (Major innovation priority field: Only major innovation priority field that has seen increased funding since 2006; focus area is x-ray free electron lasers)

Industrial production; manufacturing – shipbuilding & shipping; automotive

Information & telecom systems

Biotechnology (Implement technologies that provide

Manufacturing: automotive (Major innovation

Nanotech (Striving for R&D developments that will foster a

(IT employment is projected to grow more than 2% annually between 2010 & 2019, IT & telecom professionals are necessary, particularly in the development of green technologies and highly skilled areas)

Brazil

South Korea

(Become a world leader in some of the most hightech industries; large R&D investments are needed in Korean traditional manufacturing industries)

18

France

Germany

China

in this area & improve dissemination of technologies to the public at large)

priority and advancements in ICT are explicitly cited as a focus area for innovation)

area of focus)

Space

Pharmaceuticals + chemicals (Vision of a sustainable biobased economy by 2030 includes plan for biotech developments and R&D in pharma industry; Bio Industry 2021 supports partnerships between science and industry to include biotech applications in the production of chemical base materials and

Advanced aircraft & weapons + speeding up development of space & marine

(Space is at the heart of strategic challenges at the military and political level; cooperation with all of Europe is vital; space defence is a specific area of focus)

(China is developing and fielding systems to attack highvalue aircrafts)

India

UK

Brazil

Russia

Estonia

Japan

South Korea

(Tops the list of the 8 S&T priority areas for Russia: the focus is on technologies for intelligent management systems, for transmitting, processing and protecting information and for software development & information systems)

high added value and productivity growth in this field)

priority field: Desire to become the world’s top manufacturing nation but also suffering from the devastating effects of 2011 earthquake)

Nano-bio Korea through research in nanomaterials, electronic devices based on miniaturisation technology, computer memories and molecular logic devices)

Aerospace innovation

Materials technology

Aerospace technology

(UK is second most competitive country for aerospace technology and wants to improve this position)

(One of the key technologies that should have an impact on society, economics and future growth)

(Japan is working secretly on aerospace technology for intelligence, defence & civilian remote sensing applications)

19

France

Germany

China

India

UK

Brazil

Russia

Estonia

Japan

South Korea

end products) Transportation & fuel needs (Focus on alternative fuels & environmentallyfriendly production methods, coordination with major European and international bodies)

Production (mechanical) + manufacturing & engineering (Focus is on the potential of environmental technologies as well as energy efficient machinery and technologies)

Manufacturing industry focus (Desire to master key new materials and advanced manufacturing technologies)

Cyber security & attack capabilities 23

(Using DDoS attacks & Trojans; involving the corporate sector (such as Huawei) and telecommunica tions equipment; developing skills for computer network attacks; simulation

23

Security & counter terrorism (One of eight strategic S&T priority areas, goal is to provide national defence & technological safety)

Weapons technologies (Work towards self-reliance in defence systems and producing world-class weapons in various areas of military technology)

Cyber Defence (Creation of a centre for cyber defence; construction of a war room; training in incident response and malware analysis; practice cyber war games)

Cyber security & attack (Information weaponry, offensive hacking & scouting US military and private sector websites and networks)

Distributed Denial-of-Service attack (DDoS attack) is an attempt to make a machine or network resource unavailable to its intended users.

20

France

Germany

China

India

UK

Brazil

Russia

Estonia

Japan

South Korea

exercises for network scanning, breaking codes, stealing data and other malware) Source: Taia Global (2012), “Where 13 Nations are focusing their High Priority R&D Capabilities”, White Paper

21

Below we present a number of additional insights for the US, China and India. The US is traditionally of importance to Europe and Flanders in view of strong economic ties. China is a strongly emerging economic power, soon expected to outperform Europe on several dimensions. India, finally, is also an emerging economy with large business potential for Europe and Flanders. The results presented below reflect the outcomes of recent foresight exercises and do not necessarily reflect actual policy priorities or choices. As already mentioned above, the results are presented as sources of inspiration.

In focus: United States An influential series of foresight looking activities known as “Global Trends 2025 – A 24 transformed world ” is expected to guide US policy priorities in different policy areas in the coming years. The main shifts are expected to be the following:

 

 

 



Worldwide strategic rivalries are most likely to evolve around trade, investments, and technological innovation and acquisition. Global wealth and economic power will shift from West to East, as a result of increases in oil and commodity prices and lower cost basis in combination with government policies that have led to a shift in manufacturing and some service industries to Asia. China, India and Russia are expected to become large economic and military powers (in China and Russia, greater democratization is also expected, but this is not certain). The US will be a less dominant power. Unprecedented global economic growth will continue to put pressure on a number of highly strategic resources, including energy, food, and water, and demand is projected to outstrip easily available supplies over the next decade or so (demand for food will rise by 50 percent by 2030; lack of access to stable supplies of water is reaching critical proportions, particularly for agricultural purposes). New technologies could again provide solutions, such as viable alternatives to fossil fuels or the means to overcome food and water constraints. The pace of technological innovation will be important but transition is expected to be slow. Technology, the role of immigration, public health improvements, and laws encouraging greater female participation in the economy are some of the measures that could change the trajectory of current trends pointing toward less economic growth, increased social tensions, and possible decline. Major discontinuities are expected; examples are use of nuclear weapons or a pandemic. Energy transition is inevitable.

In terms of concrete policy priorities, the United States is heavily investing in selected Key Enabling Technologies (also judged by Europe as essential for future growth and 25 prosperity ). Among these large scale initiatives are the “Advanced Manufacturing 26 Partnership” responding to the fact that the US has been losing ground in recent years as a 27 leading producer of manufactured goods. Next is the “National Nanotechnology Initiative”, aiming to advance and accelerate the creation of new products and manufacturing processes derived from discoveries at the nanoscale. These perspectives are not only technology driven, as they also aim to build a better educated and more highly trained workforce, to promote innovation and expand R&D, and to improve the global competitiveness of U.S. companies.

24

Zie: http://www.acus.org/publication/global-trends-2025-transformed-world

25

European Commission (2012), “A European strategy for Key Enabling Technologies - A bridge to growth and jobs" Communication adopted on 26 June 2012

26

www.manufacturing.gov

27

www.nano.gov

22

In focus: China China has been active in the implementation of forward looking studies and activities. Springer and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) co-published a series of strategic reports planning the next 40 years of progress in science and technology. Besides being a general report, this project comprises 18 sub-group reports covering over a dozen scientific disciplines (including energy, space, marine, advanced materials, bio-hylic and biomass resources, mineral resources, ecology and environment, agriculture, ICT, hydrocarbon, advanced manufacturing, large scale scientific facilities, nanotechnology and safety). All of the field-specific foresight exercises take a 2050 perspective. According to the main report, a new technological and industrial revolution characterised by green energy, artificial intelligence and sustainable development is most likely to take place during the next 10 to 20 years. 8 social economic systems backed up by science and technology innovation should be developed:

       

Sustainable energy and resources system New material Information networking system Ecological higher value agriculture Health insurance system Ecology and environment preservation Space and ocean system National and public security system

In terms of policy priorities, China is focusing its R&D efforts and capabilities in the following 28,29 policy areas:

            

28

29 30

Agricultural development; Manufacturing industry: master key new material and advanced manufacturing technologies to improve industrial competitiveness; Financial sector: optimizing financing and budget systems infused with high-tech R&D developments; Environment: focus lies on breakthroughs in key technologies for environmental protection, resources and energy development to serve sustainable development; Medicine: aim is to enhance the bio-technological R&D level and capacity; Public welfare: develop key biological, agricultural and pharmaceutical technologies to improve the welfare of the Chinese people; 30 DDoS attacks (Trojans): while China has the most extensive cyber capabilities in Asia, its technical expertise is considered “uneven”. Developments in this area are expected to speed up; Computer network attack and defence operations; Cyber exercises for information reconnaissance, releasing network data, establishing “network spy stations” methods of seizing control of communication networks of Taiwan, Japan, India, and South Korea; Advanced aircraft and weapons; Space technology; Renewable energy: focus on energy, water resources and environmental protection; Biotechnology.

Taia Global (2012), “Where 13 Nations are focusing their High Priority R&D Capabilities”, White Paper (http://www.taiaglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/13-Nations-RD-White-Paper.pdf) LI, L., (2009), “Research Priorities and Priority-setting in China”, VINNOVA analysis Distributed Denial-of-Service attack (DDoS attack) is an attempt to make a machine or network resource unavailable to its intended users.

23

In focus: India Supported by the European Commission, India has carried out a foresight exercise looking at 31 the future of Indian ICT . ICT has been the driving force for economic and technological boom in the past two decades and the collaboration between Europe and India has intensified, particularly in the area of R&D. In terms of R&D focus, two areas have been identified: core technology development and sectorial applications of ICT. Among the core technologies are:

    

Internet access: allocation of bandwidth, last mile connectivity, convergence of mobile and internet technologies; Networking technologies: large networked systems, machine to machine communication, cloud computing, wireless networks and smart networks; Monitoring systems, sensors for measurement & remote diagnostics, integrated with wireless networks, generic and mobile devices; Cloud Computing Applications; Security algorithms for various systems and devices.

With regard to sectorial application of ICT, healthcare, energy, governance and education emerged as important sectors that will need ICT integration. Besides ICT (including computing technology), the following policy priorities have been 32 identified :  Nuclear energy: focusing on nuclear physics, reactor engineering, fuel reprocessing, waste management, and materials research and metallurgy.  Food Supply/Agricultural research: focus on innovation in all areas of the food supply chain, the conservation and enhancement of national wealth of natural resources and biodiversity, adaptation in the face of climate change, improvements in sustainable technologies, and increases in collaboration between public, private, national, and international organizations.  Weapons technologies and biotechnology.

31

Synchroniser, Synchronising the Research Policy Dialogue to the Indian Dimension, http://www.euindiacoop.org/download/foresight_study_&_roadmap_paper.pdf

32

Taia Global (2012), “Where 13 Nations are focusing their High Priority R&D Capabilities”, White Paper (http://www.taiaglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/13-Nations-RD-White-Paper.pdf)

24

5. SOCIETY AND CHALLENGES Introduction The 21st century is described as the century in which progress had never before occurred so quickly. Technological and socio-economic developments are increasing rapidly. Energy, food and water resources are increasingly controlled. Social relationships are changing. World power relationships are also shifting. Climate changes make clear that future progress will have to be based on new growth models and new paradigms. There are several important societal challenges which need to be dealt with. The key challenges and drivers summarised below are likely to increase in impact during the coming 15-20 years (or even earlier), for both Europe and Flanders. Underlying overview and associated discussion is based on a number of important accompanying assumptions that create the necessary space for new policy making. 1. An optimistic rather than a pessimistic view is taken; 2. While challenging, it is nevertheless assumed that the current welfare system can and will be largely maintained; 3. The same applies to current levels of employment; 4. The competitiveness of companies in Europe can be maintained and even strengthened; 5. There will be no major disruptive conflicts. The overview and the discussion presented in this chapter are mainly based on an analysis of the existing literature review. Further refinements took place during the interviews with experts. Experts were also consulted on the clustering of the specific societal challenges in groups – naturally on the basis of the initial grouping done by the study team.

Challenges faced Societal challenges are increasingly prominent in the policy agendas for shaping new and more effective policies. Increasingly, foresight studies pay attention to how particular future solutions can tackle emerging social and societal challenges. Based on the challenges identified by the European Commission, the United Nations, the World Bank and several countries and regions (including Flanders), the most relevant challenges for Flanders have been clustered into 6 groups. Without any doubt, the current financial crisis faced by Europe, but also by other countries in the world, is a very real and relevant context in which several other challenges should be placed. Under each group we present those specific challenges which have been identified. These are subsequently discussed in more detail in the next section.

25

Groups

Headlines

Group 1: Health, demographic change and well-being

 Population: growing, ageing and with higher life expectancy, lower

Group 2: Inclusive and changing societies

 Social deconstruction (power distance, purchasing power, caring for

number of new-borns

 Social changes  New ‘modern’ diseases (physical but also psychological)  Financing pressure

    

the disadvantaged) Safety and security concerns of citizens Affordable and accessible education Human – technology interaction and cooperation (technology in daily life) New ways of organizing democracy Diversity

Group 3: Natural resources (agriculture, food, water management, forestry, biodiversity)

 Food availability and security  Changing food patterns  Food - Energy nexus  Water availability  Raw materials  Maintain biodiversity

Group 4: Energy transition

 Changes in energy demand and delivery  Greener and societally acceptable forms of energy  External dependency (new geopolitical situation)  Energy – Climate nexus  Energy – Water nexus

Group 5: Physical space, mobility and time

 Urbanization  New ways of organizing space (e.g. cities, modularity, mixed target groups)

 Green buildings  Mobility  Time management and time planning  Accessibility and interconnectivity Group 6: Global economy and global labour force

 Global economy: new emerging markets, new trade patterns and relationships

 Global politics: new power order and relationships, new international politics and policies, rising conflicts

 Global labour market and war on talent: interrelationships, shortage of highly skilled, training & education, mobility

26

Group 1: Health, demographic change and well-being

 Population: growing, ageing and with higher life expectancy, lower number of new-borns One of the biggest global challenges we face is over-population. With the refinements and advances in medical technology, combined with increasing knowledge of health and wellness, the world's population will grow rapidly in the coming decades, and will also live longer. Worldwide life expectancy has risen from 46 years around 1950 to 66 years in 2012. In the more developed world it went up from 66 to 76 and efforts are still directed 33 towards making our life span even longer. Ageing, at the same time brings along a number of important challenges such as social isolation, loneliness, depression and other neuro34 degenerative diseases, other health problems that need to be addressed. According to the UN, between now and 2025, the world population will increase by 20% to reach 8 billion inhabitants (6.5 billion at present); 97% of this growth will occur in developing countries. It is likely that in western society, the population will not grow as rapidly as it does in countries such as Asia and Africa. Consequently, in 2025, the population of Europe will 35 only account for 6.5% of the world population. In Europe the fertility rate declines due to the introduction of modern contraceptives and the desire to have fewer children; professional career ambitions play a role here as well. The number of unwanted children diminishes, children are born later in life, and spacing becomes easier. Walter Laqueur warns of the major consequences of a declining European population (a drastic population decline is expected), accompanied by ageing, integration problems and the 36 failure of the welfare state as is known today.

 Social changes The extension of life expectancy in developed countries is increasingly considered both a problem and a blessing. Advances in health care and medicine, nutrition, safety, and a variety of other factors have been compounded by a drop in birth rates, leading in some cases to a second demographic transition with rates below the net reproduction rate. This, in turn, has led to a change in dependency rates (the proportion of the total population outside the labour force), which then affects the structure of transfers, saving rates, 37 consumption patterns, care needs, social provisions, and economic growth in general. In Flanders, due to the ageing population versus a not so fast growing younger population, 38 the dependency balance is expected to become unbalanced from 2025 onwards. Fewer people in work have to support higher numbers of pensioners, as well as fund the rest of the welfare system. Ageing populations doubtless raise the issue of the affordability and financing of our social and health care systems. Employees will work longer, which creates different tensions and social challenges in different social groups (low versus highly educated people in terms of differing life expectancies). Solidarity between generations will have to be safeguarded and 39 new forms of ‘local’ caring will have to be introduced, along with new financial models.

 New ‘modern’ and emerging diseases Worldwide food supply is not evenly distributed which leads to an increasing inequality in dietary patterns. Between now and 2050, growth in global population and changing diets in 40 emerging countries are projected to bring about a 70% increase in food demand.

33 34

Source: interviewee Dexia (2010), “Vergrijzing: impact en uitdaging voor de lokale besturen”

35

European Commission (2009), “The world in 2025. Rising Asia and Socio-ecological Transition”, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities 36 http://www.laqueur.net/index2.php?r=2&id=7 37 Source: interviewee 38 Source: interviewee 39 European Foresight Monitoring Network (2009), “Special issue on healthcare, healthy ageing and the future of public healthcare systems” 40 OECD-FAO, Agricultural Outlook; 2008-2017, http://www.fao.org/es/esc/common/ecg/550/en/AgOut2017E.pdf

27

Malnutrition and obesity will coexist in several emerging countries, putting high pressure on 41 health care systems. Obesity is a typical western disease. More than a third of the population in the USA is obese today. One major cause is changing lifestyle. In today’s consumption society, food is always available and can be consumed very quickly, cars and public transport are used to move between places and due to the constant use of television 42 and computers, there is a lack of physical movement during the day. Children do not 43 escape these influences either. These factors combine to create massive health problems. Furthermore, there is an observable increase in psychological and psychiatric diseases particularly affecting the younger population in Western society. This development can be related to increasing individualism, social deconstruction but also food consumption 44 patterns. Moreover, we will soon have to be prepared to protect ourselves against upcoming emerging diseases caused by climate changes and global warming. As a consequence, there will be a need for prolonged medical care and for versatile, reliable systems that make patient - and therapy - specific data available to clinicians in real 45 time. Early detection of disease is a promising new application area that should be combined with education and communication (all important prevention elements). Food and food consumption should become school subjects in elementary school, as consumers need to be informed and made aware of their food consumption behaviour. The 46 same applies to psychological and psychiatric diseases.

 Financing pressure In order to tackle trends such as ageing, obesity and changes in climate as well as in lifestyle, enormous pressure is expected to be put on public financing and today’s financing models. Healthy life expectancy is rising, but not so quickly as total life expectancy. This leads to the likely paradox that the most recent investments in health care systems and 47 treatments add to the prolongation of ‘unhealthiness’. Furthermore, attention should be paid to the potential affordability gap between different groups of society (rich/poor, haves/have-nots). Group 2: Inclusive and changing societies

 Social deconstruction One of the core dimensions of social life is the quality of our interpersonal relationships, the nature of networks linking people together. The sociology of modernization has repeatedly pointed at the shift from intimate, personal, primary bonds to mediated and anonymous relationships, from the traditional family to contingent partnerships, from deliberative communities to a life and world strongly influenced by technological evolutions. 48 More importantly, it has stressed the emergence of new forms of individualism. At the same time, technological innovations create immense opportunities for new contacts and new forms of relationships. This results in new forms of social organization, in virtual communities, that may not yet be fully understood. New social identities provide followers with a ready-made community that serve as a ‘social safety net’ in times of need.

41

European Commission (2009), “The world in 2025. Rising Asia and Socio-ecological Transition”, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities Source: interviewee 43 European Foresight Monitoring Network (2009), “Special issue on healthcare, healthy ageing and the future of public healthcare systems” 44 Source: interviewee 45 Source: interviewee 46 Source: interviewee 42

47 48

Source: interviewee European Commission (2011), “Global Europe 2050”, Executive Summary, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities

28

49

The family is one of the cornerstones of our society. However, the value of the family structure itself is changing. Almost 50% of the Flemish children have more than one mother or father, the so-called, mother, plus-mother, father and plus-father. Family constructions are more complex than ever which has an influence on the structure of society. Individuals are 50 becoming predominant.

 Safety and security concerns of citizens A significant characteristic when looking ahead towards 2025 includes a more pervasive sense of insecurity, including the threat of terrorism. The key factors that spawned 51 international terrorism show no signs of abating over the next 15 years. Strong terrorist interest in acquiring chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons increases the risk of a major terrorist attack. Terrorists might acquire biological agents or, less likely, a nuclear 52 device, either of which could cause mass casualties. It is expected that terrorists will attempt cyber-attacks to disrupt critical information networks and, even more likely, to cause physical damage to information systems (see also the S&T priorities of several nations as presented above). Safety and security concerns apply not only to individual but also to infrastructure, goods and services. Towards 2020 it is expected that there will be a growing 53 need for new security strategies to reduce conflicts and terrorism. 54

Insecurity and crime are considered a major threat to the quality of life in the cities. Security strategies need to be defined to make cities and regions save places to live, not only by focusing on the approach towards ‘criminal elements’ but also by providing a safety net in 55 terms of reducing the risk of poverty and increasing life standards of living. Even before the economic crisis, there were 80 million people at risk of poverty in Europe, including 19 million 56 children, and 8% of working people did not earn enough to make it above the poverty line. It is important to address these issues, as a healthy and happy society delivers a safer environment than a poor and fearful one.

 Affordable and accessible education Education and training policies in Europe have gained impetus since the adoption of the Lisbon Strategy in 2000, the former EU's overarching strategic program focusing on growth and jobs. The strategy recognized that knowledge and the innovation it generates, are society’s most valuable assets, particularly in light of increasing global competition. There are challenges ahead: 25% of European school children have poor reading skills; too many young people leave education/training without qualifications; under a third of Europeans aged 25-34 have a university degree (40% in the US, over 50% in Japan); and European 57 universities rank poorly in global terms – only 2 are in the top 20. High-quality pre-primary, primary, secondary, higher and vocational education and training are important policy challenges. In a rapidly changing world in which life expectancy rates are increasing, lifelong learning needs to be a priority as this will be important for continuous employment, economic success and full participation in society. Flanders benefits from a good educational system, 58 but there are major differences between the best and average pupils. The long-term strategic objectives according to the EU education and training policies 59 are:

  49

Making lifelong learning and mobility a reality; Improving the quality and efficiency of education and training;

European Commission (2009), “Foresight Report: Facets and Preconditions of Wellbeing of Families”, Family Platform, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities

50

Strategic Foresight Group (2008), “Global Security and Economy”, Emerging Issues Report US National Intelligence Council (2011), “Mapping the Global Future”, Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project 52 US National Intelligence Council (2011), “Mapping the Global Future”, Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project 53 US National Intelligence Council (2008), “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” 54 Strategic Foresight Group (2008), “Global Security and Economy”, Emerging Issues Report 55 Source: interviewee 56 European Commission (2010), “Europe 2020-Goals” 57 European Commission (2010), “Europe 2020-Goals” 58 Zie ook het advies van de commissie Monard over de hervorming van het secundair onderwijs 51

59

European Commission (2010), “Europe 2020-Goals”

29

  

Promoting equity; Social cohesion and active citizenship; Enhancing creativity and innovation, including entrepreneurship, at all levels of education and training. 60

Education should remain affordable to all classes of society to avoid societal division. Access to education is one factor; the other is ‘out of school’ support and mentoring offered during the educational trajectory of the student, which could by afforded more easily by wealthier people.

 Human – technology interaction and cooperation (technology in daily life) As science and technology becomes increasingly integrated with daily life, technology is no longer a simple tool for engineering and scientific research – it is widely recognized as an important component in finding solutions to major social issues, such as healthcare, education, energy, and environmental protection. High-tech breakthroughs - such as in genetically modified organisms, e-solutions and increased food production - could provide a safety net eliminating the threat of ageing, poverty, and ameliorating basic quality of life issues. The incorporation of technology into daily life requires training, education and 61 communication. This also implies that the interaction between humans and computers is important, by considering how the brains reflect on interaction with language, the semantic web, for example. Technological developments offer new possibilities to make people's daily lives healthier, safer, understandable, independent, fun and comfortable. They can offer society energyfriendly and sustainable solutions to improve the environment, as well as providing tools for elderly people to live longer and autonomously in their own environment. In order to be effective, guidance and acceptance are needed; people will need to be able to use them properly as well as trusting, accepting and adopting them.

 New ways of organizing democracy Increasing levels of migration and mobility put pressure on existing rules concerning the 62 participation of citizens in democratic processes (e.g. participation in elections/voting; the possibility to take up political mandates) on different levels. What is the best way to organize these processes in a multicultural society? People in the 21st century seem to want to be closer and more directly involved with both the legislative and the executive branches of 63 government. Moreover, migration also raises issues on how to best deal with pluralism and integration in society. There are other aspects that relate to the facilitation of democratic processes. For example, increasing digitalization makes it possible to reconsider the ways in which citizens are involved in governance. Several countries are experimenting with digital platforms for 64 consulting citizens on different issues, or providing services through the internet.

 Diversity In the future, we will live in a society that will become increasingly diverse because of growing interconnectedness and intensifying migration patterns. Cultural diversity reflects the qualities of different cultures, as opposed to monoculture. Respect for diversity, the fight against racism and xenophobia and the promotion of ‘intercultural learning’ that encourages tolerance, mutual respect and understanding in society in general, will become important 65 issues to tackle.

60 European Commission (2011), “Global Europe 2050”, Executive Summary, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities 61 Source: interviewee 62 Strategic Foresight Group (2008), “Global Security and Economy”, Emerging Issues Report 63 US National Intelligence Council (2008), “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” 64 US National Intelligence Council (2008), “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” 65 European Commission (2010), “Europe 2020-Goals”

30

Group 3: Natural resources

 Food availability and security Food availability is unequally distributed between continents and countries. Almost one third of the world population has a diet which suffers from various qualitative deficiencies (deficiencies in proteins, etc.). Malnutrition affects almost 2 billion people today. With the predicted growth of the world population this number is expected to even increase (cf. Africa 66 and South Asia) as food demand in emerging countries is also expected to increase. Reduction of agricultural land in favour of other socio-economic drivers (industry, housing, etc.), irrigation problems and the consequence of climate changes (natural disasters like 67 floods and droughts) are expected to negatively affect agricultural production. As a consequence, a tension between the supply and demand of food between countries can be expected. Availability is also expected to be influenced by differences in purchasing power (hence affordability) and the prices of foodstuff. According to the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and development) and FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization), agricultural prices will, in the medium-term, remain higher than during the past decade. There is currently insufficient knowledge about the underlying structural causes of present food 68 price increases. As globalization intensifies, essential food exchange between regions of the world will increase, mainly because some regions like Asia or Middle East/North Africa will not be able to produce as much food as they are expected to consume under standard demographic assumptions. The governance and regulation of trade will therefore be at the heart of future food systems and food security, even in a scenario where maximum regional food self69 sufficiency is sought. Large-scale land acquisitions can be seen as an opportunity for increased investment in agriculture for developing countries lacking the necessary capital. But unequal power relations in the land acquisition deals can put the livelihoods of the poor at 70 risk.

 Changing food patterns Trends in consumption are leading to an increasing variety of food consumed, changing dietary habits, and a divergence in diet between the rich and poor. The latter may lead to a so-called “health gap”, referring to differences in the physical and psychological condition between the rich and poor. The nutrition transition towards more meat-based consumption which is occurring in low and middle-income countries is expected to have worldwide consequences for food supply, put stress on natural resources, as well as to further negatively impact climate change (e.g. as a result of production and transport increases). Evidence is emerging that a second transition is occurring from a diet rich in animal proteins 71 to one that is closer to health guidelines and which puts less pressure on the environment.

 Food - Energy nexus The production of bio-fuels today requires the use of 4.5% of the world’s cereals and of 7.6% of oilseeds. These quantities are even higher for specific markets: 30% of American cereals are transformed into ethanol while 40% of European oilseeds are used for bio-diesel 72 production. Whereas the first generation of biofuels were made of sugars and vegetable oils found in arable crops, the second generation biofuels can be manufactured from various types of biomass (plant or animal materials). Growing food for energy production is controversial and contradictory to the previously mentioned challenge of increasing global food demand; hence a vast transition to the second generation seems to be desirable from a societal perspective. The concentration of resources and power into a limited number of multinational corporations, and the emergence of an agro-industrial model where food

66

OECD-FAO, Agricultural Outlook; 2008-2017, http://www.fao.org/es/esc/common/ecg/550/en/AgOut2017E.pdf IFPRI (2009), Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation 68 OECD-FAO, Agricultural Outlook; 2008-2017, http://www.fao.org/es/esc/common/ecg/550/en/AgOut2017E.pdf 69 SCAR (2011) European Commission – Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR) - The 3rd SCAR Foresight Exercise 70 IFPRI (2009), Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation 71 US National Intelligence Council (2008), “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” 72 OECD-FAO, Agricultural Outlook; 2008-2017, http://www.fao.org/es/esc/common/ecg/550/en/AgOut2017E.pdf 67

31

products tend to become services more than products, poses a number of challenges as far 73 as dependency is concerned.

 Water availability Shortages in water or increases in the cost of energy or agricultural products may have enormous consequences. Water, food and energy are intertwined commodities. The need for water will increase sharply with the increase in world population and the rise in the 74 standard of living in emerging countries. By 2030, a water supply shortage of approximately 40 percent is expected due to the combination of rising demand and climate-change-driven 75 shifts in water supply. In order to face these resource constraints, businesses and consumers will have to adapt. The need for water, not only drinking water, will become more important than ever, and a number of new trends are likely to intensify. Water will be safeguarded much more in the future whereas the fight for sea territory is likely to further emerge. It is plausible that seas will be considered to be new territories. The Arctic, for example, or deep-sea issues are new challenges for off-shore energy and for pharmaceutical discoveries. Climate change will also have impacts on the coastal demography and de/re-localization of populations in several 76 parts of the world. Here, water can be regarded as a threatening force. Sea life and feed are also an important resource. Major constraints, from this perspective, concern the accessibility of fishing grounds, the overexploited status of some key stocks and the control of costs. Because of the increasing depletion of fishing grounds, income is limited by European quotas and effort limitations and further drops in quotas and increased effort 77 restrictions are likely.

 Raw materials Concerning the availability and access to raw materials, Europe is facing a number of challenges or supply risks in key sectors. We present the most important ones below, by 78 quoting a European Commission study on raw materials



In relation to the extractive industries, and in particular the mining & quarrying industry, certain raw materials are critical due to the combination of lack of resources within the EU, increased use in developing economies and their strategic importance for products like future environmental technologies. Concerning the availability of industrial minerals, Europe has a limited number of suppliers.



Concerning the steel industry, there are risks of limited access to most important raw materials (iron ore and scrap) because of protectionist measures of emerging economies.



For the paper and pulp sectors, there is the competing use of wood by less regulated industries that might pose availability risks.



On chemicals, the race with China concerning demand for raw materials is being lost.



For the car manufacturing sector, there is a higher dependency on foreign rare earth material (for example for electrical vehicles).

The position and presence of Europe in global value chains will be important in order to maintain access to important raw material.

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SCAR (2011) European Commission – Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR) - The 3rd SCAR http://www.grida.no/ Bloomberg, “Navigating the Water-Food-Energy Nexus”, January 2012 76 US National Intelligence Council (2008), “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” 77 Flanders in Action (2012), “Pact 2020 Kernindicatoren Meting 2012”, Pact 2020 78 European Commission (2011), “Access to non-energy industrial raw materials and the competitiveness of the EU industry, Summary report, Directorate-General Enterprise and industry 74 75

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 Maintain biodiversity Maintaining biodiversity as a natural resource is essential for the future. More attention and 79 care need to be paid to the natural environment if we are to keep on benefiting from it. In order to support the shift towards a resource-efficient, sustainable, low-carbon society and 80 2 economy the EU propagates the reduction of CO emissions, promotion of greater energy 81 82 security and reduction of resource intensity of what is used and consumed. , Group 4: Energy transition

 Changes in energy demand and delivery Energy is of major economic importance. The source however, is not steadfast, and neither is the consumption of energy. An expanding global economy is likely to increase the demand for many raw materials, such as oil. The “oil peak” is likely to be reached in 2025 or st a few years later. Its secure supply is one of the greatest challenges of the 21 Century, with 83 the all the resultant, inevitable threats.

 Greener and societally acceptable forms of energy Energy is also an area of significant opportunity and significance for people’s quality of life. Rationalization of energy use without loss of comfort will be an important challenge. Environment-related requirements and the dependence on raw materials produced abroad will push towards new ways of producing, of consuming, of living, of moving; behavioural 84 changes will be needed. Promotion of rationalization and new forms of energy can take place through measures complementary to R&D, such as stressing energy efficiency, the adoption of green public 85 The range of procurement policies and economic instruments such as taxation. technological opportunities is also quite significant, including new energy efficiency and energy generation technologies as well as conservation, recycling, waste reduction, emissions and environmental control. The recycling of raw materials for energy generation is also promising. 86

According to the EU 2020 targets, Belgium should strive towards a 13% share in renewable 87 energy. There is still a long way to go. The energy transition requires both technological and socio-economic efforts in order to achieve higher levels of efficiency. Changes in social behaviour stimulated by appropriate policies should contribute to a drastic reduction in energy consumption.

 External dependency (new geopolitical situation) The necessary shift in energy production and rationalization requires a global perspective. International debates with regard to energy production, distribution and consumption, are closely linked to the climate change challenge (e.g. Kyoto protocol and subsequent agreements). The strategies of the major powers and the emerging countries regarding climate protection strategies vary. At present, only Europe is ready to enter into binding and 88 quantified commitments and is the only region to propose long-term ambitious objectives. A further challenge is to avoid an overly large dependency on energy supply from abroad. Today, for example, Belgium is quite dependent on electricity supply from abroad, as a result of the issues with our nuclear energy production facilities.

79

80 81 82

European Commission (2011), “Global Europe 2050”, Executive Summary, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/AboutGEI/WhatisGEI/tabid/29784/Default.aspx European Commission (2010), “Europe 2020-Goals” United Nations (2012), “Green Economy in a Blue World”

83

European Commission (2011), “World and European Energy and Environment Transition Outlook”, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities Source: interviewee 85 Source: interviewee 86 European Commission (2010), “Europe 2020-Goals” 87 European Commission (2012), “In-Depth Review for Belgium”, Commission Staff Working Document 88 European Commission (2010), “Europe 2020-Goals” 84

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 Energy – Climate nexus Climate change, energy production and use, are strongly intertwined. CO2 emissions originate from the production and use of energy. And CO2 emissions, in turn, provoke negative climate change. Over the next 25 years energy demand is expected to increase by 89 60%. Fossil fuels, i.e. the main cause of CO2 emissions, will provide 85% of this energy. A trend towards alternative ‘green’ energy sources such as wind energy which do not consume water or emit climate changing greenhouse gases can be observed.

 Energy – Water nexus A similar tension can be found with respect to energy production and water use. The energywater nexus is the relationship between how much water is evaporated to generate and transmit energy, and how much energy it takes to collect, clean, move, store, and dispose of water. Water is needed to generate energy; it is used to cool steam electric power plants – fuelled by coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power – and is required to generate hydropower. Water is also used in massive quantities during fuel extraction, refining and production. Energy is needed to deliver water: it is used to extract, move and treat water for drinking and irrigation. Energy is also consumed when water is used by households and industry, especially through heating and cooling. Both resources are limiting the other—and both may 90 be running short. Group 5: Physical space, mobility and time

 Urbanisation Although urbanisation in the western world has slowed down, on a global scale the redistribution of people towards urban areas is still a major trend. Today more than 50% of the world population lives in urban settings. This large-scale resettlement is accompanied by profound social, cultural and psychological changes. Urban societies are increasingly dependent on concentrated and complex infrastructures and network grids, thus becoming more vulnerable to major disruptions. Flanders is an example of this trend. The rapid growth of cities and the growth of urban concentration, accompanied by a stronger connectivity at the local and even international level (cf. information and communication technologies), will simultaneously generate complex ecological and social challenges and opportunities (both economic and cultural, for example). The concentration of populations within cities has long been viewed as a social issue generated by rural poverty (urban 91 migration) creating new problems (housing crises, slums, etc.). This is now being reconsidered through the lens of sustainability. It is increasingly clear that in advanced economies, which have significant resource needs and are still dependent on fossil fuels, a highly concentrated urban habitat may prove more energy-efficient and sustainable than 92 93 dispersed patterns of settlement. At the same time, as green open space is becoming scarce, some might argue that more people should move to urban areas that need to be made more attractive for living (inclusive, self-sufficient and resilient, through green roofs and self-sustainability in terms of energy production, for example).

 New ways of organizing space (e.g. cities, modularity, mixed target groups …) Availability and use of space, territory and landscape (political, social, urban, natural etc.) as well as the overlap between physical space and virtual space is becoming increasingly

89

European Commission (2011), “World and European Energy and Environment Transition Outlook”, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities 90 European Commission (2011), “Global Europe 2050”, Executive Summary, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities 91 United Nations (2011), Population Distribution, Urbanization, Internal Migration and Development: an international persperctive 92 Source: interviewee 93 European Commission (2011), “Global Europe 2050”, Executive Summary, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities

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important, especially in Flanders. The human habitat and its landscapes are increasingly 94 being redefined. The modern city is both based upon and conducive to greater levels of interdependence and cooperation. A number of economic processes capitalize on the production of social relations, urban lifestyles, and networking that are made possible by urban life itself. The traditional ‘industrial’ city organized around stable forms of work and housing, managing essentially national problems (whether in terms of employment, housing, citizenship, etc.) is slowly being replaced by a complex, open-ended urban space, the boundaries of which are uncertain and often stretched far beyond the nation-state. The city is where people from across the world come to seek work, knowledge, wealth, a home, etc. It is also the place where inequality, poverty and crime are visible in concentrated forms. The 95 96 reshuffling of urban space and the identities which inhabit it is still underway.

 Green buildings All buildings that will be built by 2020 need guidance in terms of construction methods in order to obtain environment clearances and provide optimal living conditions. New and 97 existing buildings are targeted in order to make them green and carbon neutral. A whole range of initiatives and technologies are being and will be put in place: passive design, onsite generation of energy from renewable sources, efficient appliances and light fittings, 98 purchasing green power, etc.

 Mobility Society and mobility are going to transform. There are five practical considerations to take into account: efficiency and environmental friendliness, community friendliness, safety and reliability, ease of use, and, of course, affordability. This means, for example, that in the near future, automotive companies will focus on fully automated vehicles where people can ‘punch in’ or ‘speak’ the place they want to go to and the vehicle will automatically take them there. This ‘control feature’ will open up huge additional markets for automotive companies to sell to the elderly, families with kids too young to drive, and the visually, physically, and mentally impaired. Traditional gas-powered cars will start to decline with electric automobiles and hybrids taking up most of the slack. Attitude changes towards mobility and ways of 99 becoming mobile are expected to be necessary. When it comes to freight transport, new possibilities will also have to be considered. New opportunities lie in inland water transport requiring the adaptation of current and development of new infrastructure. Challenges related to sustainable and accessible cities, sustainable infrastructure, smart travel and transport, innovative travel systems and transport concepts, price incentives, traffic and mobility data are faced. Mobility will also have to be connected to time as a more general notion and pace of the rhythm of daily life (see also below). This might include a further restructuring of the opening and closing hours of schools, business 100 and governments, and hour holiday planning could also be beneficial.

 Time management and time planning The dimension ‘time’ will be interpreted and differently managed in the near future. For those where the working conditions allow, working from home using super-fast data terminals that rely both on information and entertainment is expected to increase. Traffic and mobility are also expected to change: electric cars will transport people superfast to shops where payments for goods and services can be made with a mobile phone. Citizens will be fully wired into the national digital grid, sharing daily domestic data with public authorities, allowing one to access their health, transport and education services, while providing them with details on energy use and consumer needs. People are expected to do a lot of things within the 101 same time, perhaps allowing for more time for relaxation and leisure.

94

http://www.transitie.be, www.transitiefestival.be Trendwachting.com (2012), “The Trend Report” 96 http://www.transitie.be, www.transitiefestival.be 97 Flemish Council for Science and Innovation (2012), “Innovatie in de bouw: Een strategische langetermijnvisie voor de sector”, Eindrapport Innovatieregiegroep ‘Bouw’ 95

98

Source: interviewee Source: interviewee Source: interviewee 101 Source: interviewee 99

100

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 Accessibility and interconnectivity st

Communication is essential in the 21 century. Interconnectivity and networks are key concepts that largely determine the structure of a society. Interconnectivity means that all the various devices we currently use become interconnected effectively. The first step in growing interconnectivity is cloud computing. Cloud computing (see also below under the starting field ICT) is the use of computing resources (hardware and software) that are delivered as a service over a network (typically the internet). Cloud computing entrusts remote services with a user's data, software and computation, enabling a broad range of advantages for all levels and areas of society. Social networking is another important dimension. Interactions through social media create a whole different type of interaction among people, most likely leading to new norms and values. Information is shared almost 102103 Accessibility instantly; information privacy concerns will become even more important. and interconnectivity poses challenges in terms of how to capture the huge amount of data, called “big data”, which is being created on a daily basis. Other challenges are associated with the development of intelligent and smart environments, the internet of things and a new generation of networks. Group 6: Global economy and global labour force

 Global economy: new emerging markets, new trade patterns and relationships According to the US National Intelligence Council, the world economy is likely to continue growing impressively. By 2025, it is projected to be about 80% larger than it was in 2000, and average per capita income will be roughly 50% higher. Of course, there will be cyclical ups and downs and periodic financial or other crises, but this basic growth trajectory has powerful momentum behind it. Most countries around the world, both developed and developing, will benefit from gains in the world economy if they succeed to tackle issues such 104 as ageing populations and shrinking work forces in most countries. Most forecasts to 2025 and beyond continue to show higher annual growth for developing countries than for high-income ones. Countries such as China and India will be in a position to achieve higher economic growth than Europe and Japan, whose aging work forces may inhibit their growth and those countries will account for a higher share of revenue growth between now and 2025. In 2025, the volume of trade could double in relation to 2005, with an increasing number of exports coming from the countries of the South. The positions of Asia and the European countries are likely to be reversed (see also Group 1 for reflections 105 on demographic changes). More firms are expected to become global, and those operating in the global arena will be more diverse, both in size and origin, and being more Asian and less Western in orientation. Such corporations, encompassing the current, large multinationals, will be increasingly outside the control of any one state and will be key agents of change in dispersing technology widely, further integrating the world economy, and promoting economic progress 106 in the developing world. For Flanders, as an open and export-oriented economy, this may imply reorientation of foreign direct investment, and import/export strategies, by developing relationships with new upcoming economies.

102

Source: interviewee Source: interviewee 104 US National Intelligence Council (2000), “Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernment Experts 105 European Commission (2009), “The world in 2025. Rising Asia and Socio-ecological Transition”, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities 106 US National Intelligence Council (2011), “Mapping the Global Future”, Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project 103

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 Global politics: new power order and relationships, new international politics and policies, rising conflicts At no time since the formation of the Western alliance system in 1949, has the shape and nature of international alignments been in such a state of flux. Emerging powers in Asia, retrenchment in Eurasia, a turbulent Middle East, and transatlantic divisions are among the issues that have occurred in recent years. Institutions and governments will be particularly challenged to meet the new complex transnational threats. Post-World War II creations such as the United Nations and the international financial and economic institutions will have to adjust to the profound changes taking place in the global system, including the rise of new powers, the new role of the non-state actors and internal continental economic and political 107 developments. A combination of sustained high economic growth, expanding military capabilities, and large populations will be at the root of the expected rapid rise in economic and political power for China and India. The new geopolitical situation that will take shape with the rise of emerging countries will probably have as a counterpart a new organization of international relations. Within Europe, governmental structures on national, European and international levels are likely to adapt their organizations with regard to new emerging powers and the following trends towards 2025. By most measures – market size, single currency, highly skilled work force, stable democratic governments, and unified trade blocs – an enlarged 108 Europe should be able to increase its weight on the international scene.

 Global labour market and the battle for talent: interrelationships, shortage of the highly skilled, mobility The global economy is driven by rapid and largely unrestricted flows of information, ideas, cultural values, capital, goods and services, and people. The European Commission stresses that a better knowledge economy with more opportunities will help people work longer and relieve the strain. Knowledge will remain the main driver behind a growing economy. In an increasing knowledge society, a question remains regarding the growth of intangible assets (like human capital or use of ICT) and the share of these investments among the EU, US and 109 Asia. An associated challenge is to safeguard our current levels of welfare and standards of 110 Predictions show that in order to maintain current levels, Europe will living in Europe. need to ‘import’ a substantial number of citizens from other regions. Advanced countries are indeed expected to face a shortage of qualified labour (scientists, engineers, medical doctors, software programmers). Immigration will, as a result, have to be better planned and be even more selective. Employment levels, and the active work force, also present important 111 challenges, suggesting not only a battle for talent but also a fight for jobs in Europe. World patterns of production, trade, employment and wages are transforming. There is a growing, well-educated pool of workers available on the labour market that can be seen as a competitive source of low-cost labour. Together with the growing mobility and emigration of 112 workers, this can result in ‘a battle for talent’ between knowledge intensive countries. Higher wage levels in the OECD countries is expected to have a ‘pull’ effect on (skilled) people from other parts of the world, leading to higher levels of migration, and thus diversity/pluralisms within society.

107

US National Intelligence Council (2011), “Mapping the Global Future”, Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project European Commission (2010), “Europe 2020-Goals” 109 European Commission (2011), “Global Europe 2050”, Executive Summary, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities 110 European Commission (2011), “Global Europe 2050”, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities 108

111

112

European Commission (2010), “An Integrated Industrial Policy for the Globalisation Era Putting Competitiveness and Sustainability at Centre Stage”, COM 2010(614) Strategic Foresight Group (2008), “Global Security and Economy”, Emerging Issues Report

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Comparison with ViA and VSDO The societal challenges identified above are quite similar to the challenges identified by the European Commission in its ‘Vision 2020’. Similarly, there is also overlap with the societal challenges identified in the ‘Flanders in Action’ strategy (ViA) and the ‘Flemish Strategy for Sustainable Development’ (VSDO). In the table below we present an exploratory comparison between the challenges identified in the present study, and the societal challenges identified in ViA and VSDO. Aside from the similarity between the challenges in the present report and the societal challenges in ViA and VSDO, the present study also identified a number of other new or slightly different challenges such as human-technology interaction, energy-water nexus etc.

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Identified social and societal challenges Group 1: Health, demographic change and well-being

Headlines

VIA

VSDO

 Population  Social changes  New ‘modern’ diseases (physical but also psychological)

 Financing pressure (related to health, pensions, social security) Group 2: Inclusive and changing societies

 Social deconstruction (power distance, purchasing power, carrying for the ‘weaker’)

 Safety and security concerns of citizens  Affordable and accessible education  Human – technology interaction and cooperation (technology in daily life)

 New ways of organizing democracy (EU level dimension, participation processes involving citizens) Group 3: Natural resources (agriculture, food, water management, forestry, biodiversity)

 ‘Fight’ for food, availability (meeting food demand)

 Changing food patterns  Food - Energy nexus (bio fuels)  Food security (governance of the supply chain)

 Water availability, scarcity and cost structure  Maintain biodiversity (land but also marine/maritime) Group 4: Energy transition

 Changes in energy demand and delivery  Transition towards greener and societally acceptable forms of energy (changes in social behaviour)

 External dependency (new geopolitical situation)

 Energy – Climate nexus  Energy – water nexus Group 5: Physical space, mobility and time

 New ways of organizing space (e.g. cities, modularity, mixed target groups …)

 Green buildings  Mobility (going from A to B)  Time management and time planning  Accessibility and interconnectivity Group 6: Global global labour force

economy and

 Global economy: new emerging markets, new trade patterns and relationships, creativity

 Global politics: new power order and relationships, new international politics and policies, rising conflicts

 Global labour market and ‘fight’ for brains: interrelationships, shortage of highly skilled, training & education, mobility

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6. SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION TRENDS Introduction The trends in science, technology and innovation have been studied by identifying and defining so-called ‘starting fields’. These are rather broad areas of science, technology and innovation that allow for multidisciplinary combinations and the identification of trends and development of relevance to different societal challenges. The starting fields have been selected and further refined on the following basis: 1. In order to ensure continuity with the 2006-2007 VRWI foresight study and to build on the valuable work done, the fields (chapters/themes) considered formed a first starting point. 2. The list of starting fields used in the German foresight study prestigious study - formed a second starting point.

113

- a high level and

These starting fields are generally broader in scope than the more specific and internationally validated science disciplines or technology areas (e.g. Fraunhofer disciplines) that are employed by bibliometric indicators such as international collaboration, patents ….The reason for this is that current and future societal challenges and opportunities require a broader and more multidisciplinary perspective. 3. The list of major (future) technologies of importance to the European Commission (KETs and Digital Agenda) formed the third starting point. These technologies provide the basis for innovative processes, goods and services that will contribute to tackling numerous societal challenges. Major importance is put on the deployment or commercialization of KETs based products and services, through the creation of adequate framework conditions and support instruments, involving state aid rules, trade policy and the access to financial means. KETs are ‘horizontal’ in nature as they have a very broad spectrum of application. 4. In view of the increasing importance of Social Sciences and Humanities, this field was added to the list. It has been a deliberate choice not to build upon the Fraunhofer technology classification, as this chapter does not intend to provide an in-depth description of all possible technology developments within different technology domains. Rather, the aim of this chapter is to offer an overview of technological developments that can offer solutions to the societal challenges identified in chapter 4. This also implies that some starting fields are connected to other starting fields (e.g. nanotechnology has links to energy, ICT, security). Where possible, these links have been made explicit. The domains of interest to the VRWI and Captains of Society and Industry need to be further expanded in-depth with technology experts in the second and third phase of the project cycle. This chapter is based upon a literature review. Consultation of technology experts has not taken place, as the remainder phase of the study is a more appropriate place/time to do so. In the table below, the final list of considered starting fields is presented.

113

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) and Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering (IAO) (2009), “Foresight Process”

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Starting field

In 2006/7 foresight

Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH) Advanced materials ICT Nanotechnology Biotechnology

  

Photonics Advanced manufacturing technologies Health

 

Water Food and agriculture Environment Systems research Energy

   

Cognitive neurosciences Knowledge Intensive Business Services Security Mobility and transport

 

BMBF starting fields

     

KETs/ Digital Agenda

     

       

A final comment before entering the more detailed field-specific discussion further on in this chapter concerns the Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH). SSH research is important to most, if not all, of the societal challenges and is thus quite ‘horizontal’ in nature (similar to KETs). How can SSH contribute? It may complement non-SSH starting fields to tackle complex societal challenges. For instance, environmental technologies can, based on a multidisciplinary approach, be complemented by innovative consumption models provided by SSH fields such as sociology or psychology to tackle the environmental challenges in Group 3 (see previous chapter). Secondly, SSH can also offer ‘stand-alone’ solutions to societal challenges independent of the scientific, technological or economic progress stemming from non-SSH starting fields, such as the use of innovative models to tackle poverty, social cohesion, problems related to multicultural society, financial crisis, etc. It is important to note that the level of detail of the discussion below varies by starting field, as certain fields are more established and can be discussed in more detail, while others are more recent, and their direction of development has still to be observed.

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Social Sciences and Humanities 114

“Social sciences are academic disciplines concerned with society and human behaviour . ‘Social science’ is commonly used as an umbrella term to refer to disciplines like sociology, psychology, architecture, design, pedagogy/education, economics, innovation and new product development etc. The humanities are academic disciplines that in general study the human condition. The exact delineation of the field is still debated among the research community.” Headlines Scientific and technological solutions to societal problems no longer suffice nowadays in order to find integrated, multidisciplinary, and long lasting solutions. Research in SSH is therefore important and pivotal, from two perspectives: 1. Complementing scientific and technological solutions in order to counter complex societal problems and challenges (the ‘transversal’ role). 2. Providing new insights on a large scale to societal problems and challenges like poverty, social deconstruction, loneliness, etc. (the ‘vertical’ or ‘stand-alone’ role). 115

may increase Key disciplines such as sociology, psychology, pedagogy, religion, culture the understanding of how societies work and change, including beliefs and values, and provide valuable insights about how societies can best respond to observed societal challenges. Horizon 2020, the EU’s new program for research and innovation, emphasizes the importance of SSH, partly because the expertise from SSH can contribute to all science, technology and innovation fields ranging from ICT to food and agriculture; and partly because 116 of the independent solutions that may be offered with respect to societal challenges. More specific trends and developments The Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH) cover a whole range of disciplines. Below we will look in more detail at particular developments in those SSH disciplines that have been identified (during this study) as important and relevant in tackling future societal challenge (i.e., sociology, psychology, pedagogy, economy and law).



Sociology Sociology is the scientific study of human social behaviour and its origins, development, 117 It is a social science that uses various methods of organizations, and institutions. empirical investigation and critical analysis to develop a body of knowledge about human social activity. Traditionally, sociologists focus on social stratification, social class, culture, social mobility, religion, secularization, law and deviance. In recent years, we see a broadening of sociology towards other areas like health, medical, military and penal institutions, the internet and the role of social activity in the development of scientific knowledge. Relevant and actual research topics in sociology include:

   

114 115

Structuring elder care arrangements Riots in urban modernism Employment in green societies Gender inequality

Malcolm Williams. 1999. Science and Social Science: An Introduction. Psychology Press European Commission (2010), “Social Sciences and Humanities for Europe”, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities

116

Social Sciences and Humanities for Europe http://cordis.europa.eu/documents/documentlibrary/124376641EN6.pdf

117

American Sociological Association

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

Psychology Psychology is an academic and applied discipline that involves the scientific study of 118 mental functions and behaviour. Psychology has the immediate goal of understanding individuals and groups by both establishing general principles and researching specific cases. Psychologists attempt to understand the role of mental functions in individual and social behaviour, while also exploring the physiological and neurobiological processes that underlie certain cognitive functions and behaviour. In the figure below we present an overview of key current and future research topics.

Source: American Psychological Association

The figure above clearly shows that Psychology can provide insights and solutions for a large range of topics that relate to numerous societal challenges (see previous chapter). For example, understanding (together with research in other areas like genetics) how emotional health works and can be influenced through particular food diets, can have a strong disease prevention effect. Anxiety, and the ways in which it can be reduced, will also increase wellbeing and general feelings of security.



Pedagogy (education) Pedagogy is the science and art of education. Its aims range from the full development of the human being to the acquisition of skills. Educational research links to student learning, teaching methods, teacher training, and classroom dynamics. Pedagogy deals, among other things, with research on the transfer knowledge and expertise. Several of the societal challenges identified (see chapter 4) are directly or indirectly linked to education. For example, how to create a healthy diet should be an important topic in school teaching. The same applies to gender equality, the use of technologies, entrepreneurship etc. Pedagogy and educational research can also strongly benefit from a whole range of technological solutions, like smart billboards, computers in the class room, distance learning enabled by ICT etc. An important pedagogical research topic links to pluralism. Under the European 119 Commission’s SSH program, research has been carried out on the following topics:

118 119

American Psychological Association European Commission (2011), “Project information Pluralism and religious diversity, social cohesion and integration in Europe”, Insights from European research

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

School life: o

o o



language (speaking of minority languages, regulation of abusive language, learning to discuss controversial issues such as homosexuality or anti-Semitism); dress (including the religiously motivated, school uniforms); behaviour (including violence, gestures, sexist or racist acts).



Curriculum, pedagogy and educational culture: o teaching: i.e. teaching history (e.g. Holocaust, national history), teaching on gender/sexuality, teaching of religion; o the non-accommodation of specific demands (e.g. school swimming).



Structure of the educational system: o segregation/mixing of ethnic, religious and cultural groups; o tolerance and parallel educational institutions.

Economy Economics is a field that seeks to analyse and describe the production, distribution, and consumption of wealth. It concerns the study of how people seek to satisfy needs and 120 Economics has two wants and the study of financial aspects of human behaviour. broad branches: microeconomics, where the unit of analysis is the individual agent, and macroeconomics, where the unit of analysis is an economy as a whole. Economy is related to almost all societal challenges. It is the study of the distribution of wealth, consumptive patterns, and means of production. Social stratification determines all of these attributes of economics. An major topic in this area is the impact of the economic crisis, an event that shakes the fundaments of society because of an ever increasing gap between rich and poor; the growing unemployment rate; the widening mazes in the social safety net; the increase in revolutionary political movements etc. The expectation is that problems associated with social inequality and exclusion will be experienced to a greater 121 Employment extend by immigrant and ethnic populations than by other social groups. is also an important topic as an expected shift in consumer power towards China and India might be an important influence for delocalisation (see also societal challenges 122 presented above).



Law Law refers to a rule which (unlike a rule of ethics) is capable of enforcement through institutions. However, many laws are based on norms accepted by a community and thus have an ethical foundation. The study of law crosses the boundaries between the social sciences and humanities, depending on one’s view of research into its objectives and effects. Law is not always enforceable, especially in the context of international relations. It has been defined as a ‘system of rules’, as an ‘interpretive concept’ to achieve justice, as an ‘authority’ to mediate people’s interests, and even as ‘the command of sovereign, 123 However one likes to think of law, it is a backed by the threath of a sanction.’ completely central social institution. Legal policy incorporates the practical manifestion of thinking from almost every social sciences and humanity. Law is also philosophy, because moral and ethical persuasions shape their ideas. Law tells many of history’s stories, because statutes, case law and codifications build up over time. And law is economics, because any rule about contract, tort, property law, labour law, company law

120

Roger E. Backhouse and Philippe Fontaine, eds. (2010) The History of the Social Sciences Since 1945 (Cambridge University Press) 256 pages; covers the conceptual, institutional, and wider histories of economics, political science, sociology, social anthropology, psychology, and human geography.

121

Social Sciences and Humanities for Europe http://cordis.europa.eu/documents/documentlibrary/124376641EN6.pdf

122

Social Sciences and Humanities for Europe http://cordis.europa.eu/documents/documentlibrary/124376641EN6.pdf

123

Robertson, Geoffrey (2006). Crimes Against Humanity. Pengui

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124

and many more can have long lasting effects on the distribution of wealth. An important topic in this area is the legal systems which are challenged by globalisation, 125 Privacy new technologies, financial crisis, demographic and ecological changes etc. regulations become increasingly important due to new technological development. Government digital control systems and the war against terrorism also constitute a threat 126 to both privacy and civil rights.

Potential ‘solutions’ stemming from SSH SSH research may contribute to societal challenges independently, but can also complement other science, technology and innovation solutions, by studying past and current events, changes and their influence on society. This information can help bridge the gap between research and market (composed of citizens) and as such help solving societal challenges 127,128,129 Examples of contributions of SSH are the and create economic value added. 130,131 about certain environmental challenges, or about enhancement of public awareness social disintegration and inequality, for example. Below we present a number of examples on how SSH research can address particular 132,133 societal challenges

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Challenges related to “Health, demographic change and wellbeing” Health does not only concern physical matters but also involves mental health. Mental disorders even amount up to 1/3 of the disease burden. One contribution of SSH could be to investigate factors responsible for the occurrence of mental problems and prevention, treatment and rehabilitation (through e.g. psychological and neurological research). To sustain the general wellbeing it is important to engage in medical care as well as social care. 134

and in particularly increasing pluralism in society, In relation to demographic changes SSH can provide answers on how cultural diversity can be accommodated within society while addressing issues about equality and human rights. The interaction between governance and the religious beliefs of recent immigrant populations, particularly 135 followers of Islam, are SSH research topics.

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Challenges related to “Food security, sustainable agriculture, marine and maritime research, and the Bio-economy” Government is responsible for ensuring the food safety of its citizens. In order for policies to be accepted and sustained, informing citizens is a crucial factor. Concerning

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Roger E. Backhouse and Philippe Fontaine, eds. (2010) The History of the Social Sciences Since 1945 (Cambridge University Press) 256 pages; covers the conceptual, institutional, and wider histories of economics, political science, sociology, social anthropology, psychology, and human geography.

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Advice paper 2010, social sciences and humanitites: Essential fields for european research and in horizon 2020

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Social Sciences and Humanities for Europe http://cordis.europa.eu/documents/documentlibrary/124376641EN6.pdf

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http://cordis.europa.eu/documents/documentlibrary/124376641EN6.pdf

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LERU Advice paper 2010, social sciences and humanitites: Essential fields for european research and in horizon 2020

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DG for Research Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities. Emerging Trends in Socio-Economic Sciences and Humanities in Europe: The METRIS Report. http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/metrisreport_en.pdf

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http://cordis.europa.eu/documents/documentlibrary/124376641EN6.pdf

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Advice paper 2010, social sciences and humanitites: Essential fields for european research and in horizon 2020

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Social Sciences and Humanities for Europe http://cordis.europa.eu/documents/documentlibrary/124376641EN6.pdf

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DG for Research Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities. Emerging Trends in Socio-Economic Sciences and Humanities in Europe: The METRIS Report. http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/metrisreport_en.pdf

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The Social Issues Research Centre (2011), “2020 Vision: The Trust Fund Generation”

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European Commission (2011), “Project information Pluralism and religious diversity, social cohesion and integration in Europe”, Insights from European research

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agriculture and maritime changes, SSH can contribute to understandings of change and its impact on the current state of society, enabling citizens to adapt to new future situations. SSH can contribute to a better understanding of the potential risks associated with new technological solutions (like GMO), but at the same time SSH can help to create a new society built on less consumption and avoidance of waste.

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Challenges related to “Smart, green and integrated transport” Knowledge about citizens’ behaviour and attitudes are essential in order to fully control transport pollution. Will cities become more concentrated? Will social media have an effect on transport? SSH can map these and other issues and, as such, optimize technological innovation in transport. Similarly, SSH can provide a view on what type of society we could create in order to safeguard the environment and the future.

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Challenges related to “Inclusive, innovative and secure societies” The contribution of SSH here can be twofold. Research can focus on the cultural, identity and social changes leading to European societies and/or on the freedom and security of Europe as a global actor. SSH could provide a clear view on how to deal with societal tensions such as social isolation as the result of poverty. Potential directions may be new inclusive economic growth models based on the stimulation of social innovation or the stimulation and use of creativity and creative thinking in more classical sectors of the economy.

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Challenges related to “Secure, clean and efficient energy” SSH research can contribute to the understanding of energy policies and technological/science innovations and its effect on citizens in order to enhance the adaptation process of changes by citizens; at the same time SSH could also provide answers on different aspects relevant to the use/consumption of energy. For example, what type of policies should apply to poor people in order to supply energy?

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Challenges related to “Climate action, resource efficiency and raw materials” Scientific argumentations alone will not convince citizens to change their behaviour or to demand policy actions. SSH can increase awareness of this challenge and its general influence on society and thus persuade people to change their behaviour.

Advanced Materials “Advanced materials can be defined in numerous ways; the broadest definition is to refer to all materials that represent advances over the traditional materials that have been used for hundreds or even thousands of years. From this perspective advanced materials refer to all new materials and modifications to existing materials to obtain superior performance in one or more characteristics that are critical for the application under consideration. A more insightful and focused approach to advanced materials is to consider materials that are early 136 in their product and/or technology lifecycle. ” Headlines The most important development in 2011 has been the big burst of new materials. Materials are perhaps the most applied domain of technologies within our society, as they are the building blocks of most physical products. Advanced Materials are at the basis of multiple value chains and enable industrial innovation. Advanced materials are needed in developing better performing and sustainable products and processes. Advanced materials are part of the solution to tackle industrial and societal challenges, offering better performance in their use, at lower resource and energy requirements, and improved sustainability at the end-of137 life of the products. The European Commission has identified Advanced Materials (AM) as

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Basbanes, L. V. (2007), “Advanced Materials Research Trends”, NOVA publishers,

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European Commission (2011), “Materials Roadmap Enabling Low Carbon Energy Technologies”, Working Paper

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one of the Key Enabling Technologies, underscoring its importance. The UK Technology Strategy Board defines Advanced Materials as “materials, and their associated process technologies, with the potential to be exploited in high value-added products, are both a multidisciplinary area within itself (including, for example, physics, chemistry, applied mathematics) and cross-cutting over both technology areas (e.g. electronics and photonics, biosciences) and market sectors (e.g. energy, transport, healthcare, packaging)”. More specific trends and developments Advanced materials refer to new types of material groups and manufacturing methods:

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New material groups, e.g. nanostructured materials, metal matrix composites, multimaterials structures, functionally graded materials, smart/active materials; New manufacturing methods, e.g., multi-materials structures, spray deposition, new coating, joining and castings methods, powder metallurgical methods, composite materials; Hybrid material systems, novel use of advanced high performance materials together with commodity materials in multi-material structures.

The European Technology Platform EuMaT has established several working groups to develop R&D priorities and a strategy for the EU with regard to Advanced Materials. The current groups focus on 7 priorities:

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Modelling and Multiscale This group deals with any aspect related to the modelling of materials and their transformation processes as it is currently impossible to imagine significant steps forward in material science without the support of advanced and reliable modelling design capabilities of materials and their behaviour in operating condition and full life cycle view. Materials modelling will play an increasingly important role.

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Materials for Energy This group deals with materials for power generation, both fossil and renewable; materials for energy transmission, distribution and storage; and materials for energy conservation (see also starting field ‘Energy’).

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Nanomaterials and Nano-Assembled Materials This group focuses on the following material issues: multifunctional nano-assembled materials for components and micro-systems; functional packaging materials for MST; recyclable high performance polymer nano-composites, metal matrix materials and advanced metal-polymer-ceramic composites; engineered nanostructured surfaces; low cost fabrication of coatings for harsh environments; and modelling of quantum-properties of nanostructures.

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Knowledge-based Structural and Functional Materials This group deals with a variety of materials issues related to: ceramics; metals and alloys; functionally graded materials and coatings; smart coatings; hydrogen storage materials and systems; functional multilayer materials for sensors and actuators.

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Lifecycle, Impacts, Risks This working group looks at: the risks of innovation; the risk of non-performance or performance below expectations; the risk of adverse and unexpected effects and impacts; risks over the life-cycle of products and technologies; and project risks.

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Materials for Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) This group deals with piezoelectric and metamaterials. Piezoelectric materials facilitate energy conversion from mechanical to electrical and vice versa. Metamaterials are microand nanostructured artificial electromagnetic materials which offer an opportunity to

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Roadmap of the European Technology Platform for Advanced Engineering Materials and Technologies

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realize electromagnetic material properties not available in nature (see also starting field ‘ICT).

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Bio-Materials This working group will focus on bioplastics, bioactive materials and biofibres (see also starting field ‘Health’).

Additional fields of interest are lightweight materials, medical materials, multi material joining and materials for additive manufacturing or 3D printing. 3D printing is an additive technology 139 in which objects are built up in layers in a process that often takes several hours. Lightweight materials and design are important topics in product design across several industries such as the avionics and the car industry. The significance of lightweight materials is largely driven by their role in achieving greater energy efficiency. Novel joining technologies such as adhesive bonding, mechanical fastening, and non-conventional welding are increasingly being developed, while a lot of progress in expected in the deployment of additive manufacturing or 3D printing. Advanced materials for medical applications require a fundamental understanding of materials in use as the biological, physical, and chemical characteristics of the material need to be balanced with its process ability and cost. Advanced materials also play an important role in the transition to a knowledge-based, low 140 ‘Materials carbon resource-efficient economy. The Commission staff working paper roadmap enabling low carbon energy technologies’ provides a detailed agenda of the efforts needed over the next 10 years on materials R&D for energy applications in the EU. The energy technologies considered are: wind, photovoltaic, concentrating solar power, geothermal, electricity storage, electricity grids, bio-energy, novel materials for the fossil fuel energies sector (including carbon capture and storage), hydrogen and fuel cells, nuclear fission and energy efficient materials for buildings. The individual materials roadmaps for these energy technologies are based on scientific assessments. The work of the European 141 is also important in this respect. Climate Foundation

ICT “Information and communications technology or information and communication technology (ICT), is often used as an extended synonym for information technology (IT), but is a more specific term that stresses the role of unified communications and the integration of telecommunications (telephone lines and wireless signals), computers as well as necessary enterprise software, middleware, storage, and audio-visual systems, which enable users to 142 access, store, transmit, and manipulate information. ” Headlines In the coming decennia a number of (already ongoing) changes will mark the ICT sectors as they are known today. Firstly, one can already witness an exponential growth in computing power, network and storage capability. This is expected to continue in the coming years. The industry will change: the boundaries between the classical ICT sectors and other industries will blur; more partnering, value chain integration and mixed ecosystems (involving suppliers, producers and customers) will occur, leading to new business models even in one and the same market. Open source will spread from ICT to other industries. All this will take place under the increasing danger and risks stemming from cyber fraud. 139

http://www.explainingthefuture.com/3dprinting.html

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European Commission (2011), “Materials Roadmap Enabling Low Carbon Energy Technologies”, SEC(2011) 1609 final

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European Climate Foundation (2010), “Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous low carbon Europe”, study carried out by McKinsey

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IT Knowledge Exchange; Cloud network architecture and ICT - Unified communication(UC) technologies, integration of telecommunications, computers, middleware and the data systems that support, store and transmit UC communications between systems, http://itknowledgeexchange.techtarget.com/modern-networkarchitecture/cloud-network-architecture-and-ict/

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More specific trends and developments ICT covers a broad spectrum of technologies with multiple applications. It is expected that the sector will first of all become more consumer driven in the near future (instead of technology 143 The industry is still characterized by many as being relatively new; established driven). players like IBM have undergone major changes and new players such as Google, Amazon, eBay, MySpace and YouTube are less than 10 years old. Performance of information processing activities has changed (and will continue to change) drastically over time as illustrated below:

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Processing power that has grown according to Moore's Law, doubling every eighteen months and storage capacity has shown a similar trend. The number of inferences that processors can execute is predicted to equal that of the human brain (16K/s) by 2030. Lighter and more mobile hardware. Telecommunications investment and digitalization. Converging technologies leading to new products and services. Application across almost all industries and markets.

Below we present a concise overview of the most relevant trends expected in the coming 144,145 The technology that will put computing on track to years (20 year time horizon). transform our lives is found in the world of sub-atomic particles of quantum computing. With its power and size, these computers will transform our daily activities.

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Quantum computing A quantum computer can be implemented using particles with two spin states: 'up' and 'down' to represent the binary digits that form the basis of digital computing. The factorization of large integers (whole numbers), which is believed to be computationally infeasible with an ordinary computer, into the product of two prime numbers of roughly equal size would be achieved relatively easily with a quantum computer. This would allow a quantum computer to 'break' many of the cryptographic systems that are in use today, because the task could be carried out with greater efficiency. Breaking these would have significant implications for Internet privacy and security. The increased processing power achievable by quantum computers would be a great boom to the sciences and medicine and the IT and computing technologies that surround these areas but pose some problems to e-commerce security.

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The Semantic Web The Semantic Web will be the bridge that creates intelligent and 'knowing' devices and services. It is about enabling the information on the Web to be understandable so that we can simply have a machine find and interpret information on the Web and report it back to the user (user driven applications). It is expected that the development of the Semantic Web will automate many tasks that ‘knowledge workers’ do through a network of machine understandable knowledge. Network intelligence will be used in daily life.

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IT enabled social networks and Web 2.0 Social networks are virtual communities organized around a range of special interests (examples are Wikipedia, My Space, YouTube). They are only a recent phenomenon but their popularity is increasing strongly. Media conglomerates have begun to acquire the 146 Consumer-generated media has major commercial and most established sites.

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Accenture (2011), “Accenture Technology Vision 2011 - The Technology Waves That Are Reshaping the Business Landscape”

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Ballarat ICT 2030, foresight study carried out by Ballarat, Australia

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Consultation of the Vision and the Strategic Research Agenda’s of the so-called ICT platforms ARTEMIS, ENIAC, EPoSS, EUROP, ISI, NEM, NESSI, Net!Works and Photonics 21

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Social networking site MySpace launched an Australian site in August 2006, having been acquired by News Ltd for US$580 million. YouTube, founded in a home garage in 2005, was sold to Google 18 months later for US$1.6 billion.

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economic implications. The relatively low costs of participation is allowing businesses to trial a range of new media devices; they are used for advertising, opinion sponsoring, public relations, customer relationship management and market research. Accordingly, Web2.0 and the development of symmetric broadband with comparable upload and download speeds, will transform social networks. Social networks are expected to become important channels for industry (or virtual) collaboration, social mentoring and a revolution in consumer generated content.

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Media Accessibility of newspapers and other types of media has changed and will continue to do so. Information access via the internet has led to mass media becoming social media (or at least that the boundaries between the two are blurring). Individual choices in content selection imply that ‘broadcast’ is becoming ‘narrowcast’: the latter is the provision of niche environments for specific interest groups which may lead in the end to every consumer becoming a specific interest group. Communication channels completely independent of TV, radio and newspapers will increase, thereby facilitated by mobile (phone) applications. Impact on various sectors is expected. For example, in the health sector (knowing a socalled ‘information problem’ with respect to communicating and presenting health information while at the same time using this information in decision support), the ability to integrate information systems with communication services has much to offer. Likewise, the tourism sector may also benefit, as services and information dissemination can be further customized and automated.

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Gaming and Animation Gaming is become an increasingly important industry. In what follows we present a 147 One of the biggest trends could be the growth in casual number of major trends. gaming on mobile devices. People are now turning to their phones and getting their gaming fix in small, simplistic doses. A second trend is cloud gaming or subscription gaming. The ability to handle all processing and storage in the cloud means that gamers could sign up for a gaming service. A third trend concerns user generated content, whereby the user produces content and further customizes games according to their desire and wishes. Users are therefore involved in a continuous optimization process. The rapid advancement of technology has made computer animation available to the masses and the animation industry is one of the fastest growing industries. Animation is increasingly used in video games and movies are also increasingly reliant on animation and computer graphic special effects. Outsourcing to Asia is another major trend. The 148 bulk of the outsourcing relates to 2D animation content with some 3D content. Major trends in Animation are the following:

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Stop motion animation is hip again Interest in hand-crafted animation grows Combine animation with programming Children's TV animation rediscovers its craft roots Photorealistic CG meets traditional animation

Mobile communications Mobile communications that incorporate video using low cost peer-to-peer Internet telephony network providers (e.g. Skype) and wireless are currently changing the nexus of location and work. In line with this development, it is also expected that phones will contain a lot more computing power in the near future than today and thus do what computers are doing today. According to Sony Ericson we are talking about a lag of about 5 years.

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http://www.techopedia.com/2/27831/multimedia/the-most-important-trends-in-gaming

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http://www.marketresearch.com/Digital-Vector-v2719/Global-Animation-Strategies-Trends-Opportunities6197066/view-stat/

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http://www.digitalartsonline.co.uk/features/motion-graphics/animation-trends-2012-animation-meets-programming/

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Another trend is using phones as both a fixed and mobile device; cellular networks when outdoors, and fixed networks (short-range radio link) when indoors. It is also expected that distance and voice-based pricing will decrease. Furthermore, small projectors inside handsets will allow walls or other surfaces to become displays. On the input side, there exists technology to beam a ‘virtual keyboard’ onto a flat surface.

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Cloud computing 150

Cloud computing is also identified as one of the top trends in the years ahead. Cloud computing allows users to carry out task remotely by storing data, applications, platforms and infrastructure in remote data centers. Access is also remote via an internet connection (hardware and software are not required to be locally present). It is believed that demand for cloud computing will be driven by business function. One of the potential consequences is that companies might move away from hiring in-house system administrators. Moreover, technical skills may also require service industry skills from entry level positions.

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Big data ‘Big Data’ is an umbrella term for the explosion in the quantity and diversity of high 151 These data hold the potential—as yet largely untapped—to frequency digital data. allow decision makers to track development progress, improve social protection, and understand where existing policies and programs require adjustment. Turning Big Data— call logs, mobile-banking transactions, online user-generated content such as blog posts and tweets, online searches, satellite images, etc.—into actionable information requires using computational techniques to unveil trends and patterns within and between these extremely large socioeconomic datasets. New insights gleaned from such data mining should complement official statistics, survey data, and information generated by Early Warning Systems, adding depth and nuances on human behaviours and experiences—and doing so in real time, thereby narrowing both information and time gaps.

Nanotechnology “Nanotechnology is science, engineering, and technology conducted at the nanoscale, which is about 1 to 100 nanometers. Nanoscience and nanotechnology are the study and application of extremely small things and can be used across all the other science fields, such as chemistry, biology, physics, materials science, and engineering. Nanotechnology is 152 not just a new field of science and engineering, but a new way of looking at and studying .” Headlines Nanotechnology is a very diverse, multidisciplinary cross-cutting concept that covers a wide range of developments from novel approaches for the development of new materials to structures with tailor-made unique properties. Nanotechnology is key in many value chains as it can be used to realize smaller, quicker, more powerful, or more “intelligent” intermediates and systems components for products with significantly improved or even completely new functions. Nanotechnology deals with structures sized between approximately 1 and 100 -9 nanometer (10 meters) in at least one dimension, and involve developing materials, 153 structures or devices within that size.

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Acccenture Technology Vision 2011 and 2012 “Emerging Technology Trends for IT Leaders”

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Big data for Developmnet: Challenges & Opportunities, 2012, UN Global Pulse

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http://www.nano.gov/nanotech-101/what/definition

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HLEG Nanotechnology Report, 2010

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More specific trends and developments Nano futures (the nanotechnology industry platform) have identified 5 key nodes areas in 154, 155 nanotechnology.

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Design, Modelling and Testing of Materials: this key node deals with methods, tools and research and innovation actions related to the design, modelling and simulation of nanoenabled materials and products as well as their effective testing (in vitro, in vivo, on site, analytical techniques etc.).

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Nano-Micro Scale Manufacturing: this key node deals with industrial oriented issues related to the manufacturing of nano-enabled products from prototyping to large scale and at different scales (from nano-micro to macro).

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Safety and Sustainability: this key node relates to all issues related to the sustainability and safety of nanomaterials and nano-enabled products. This includes suggested actions on standards & best practice guidelines for handling nanomaterials (nanoparticles, nanopowders); measurement protocols for nanomaterials; risk assessment and risk management; environmentally friendly and sustainable nanomaterials production and processes.

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Nanostructures and Composites: this key node includes issues on accuracy, high yield 2D control and of composites and substrates for nanotexturing as well as integration of source materials for nanostructures and composites.

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Nano-Enabled Surfaces: this key node includes issues on development, functionalization and production of high performance coatings, printed functionalities and sensors. Nanoenabled surface properties such as: low friction, corrosion, anti-fouling, anti-ice, wear resistance; topography, printed intelligence (roll to roll) are taken into account.

A huge challenge related to nanotechnology is to integrate nanotechnology in end-systems production as most nanotechnology developments remain at the laboratory stage. One of the key challenges is to scale up into continuous manufacturing. Nanotechnology is by definition a technology that requires integrated approaches involving a variety of scientific, technical and engineering disciplines which requires interdisciplinary skills. Currently, there are clear financial risks associated with deployment of nanotechnologies and nanomaterials because of the uncertain regulatory environment and trade implications. This impedes private investment. A regulatory framework across national and international jurisdictions needs to be introduced that fosters a common understanding of this complex field. Member State specific regulatory approaches can develop into significant barriers for the deployment of nanotechnology. Links between nanotechnology and other key starting fields In view of the particular ‘horizontal’ nature of nanotechnology, a number of important links with other key starting fields is presented below.

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The latest innovations in nanotechnology will accelerate the development of information technology like the next-generation computing and entertainment systems. The key element in technologies enabling a more intelligent world is the demand for rapidly growing computational capacity of electronic circuits and the integration of different features of artificial intelligence into everyday objects. Nanotechnology has an impact on: 1) data processing, 2) data storage, 3) data transportation, 4) data display, and 5) data collection technologies. For example, new computing systems based on nano-elements can increase the speed of electronics beyond silicon-based technologies, and reduce the power consumption significantly. Very low power operation is crucial not only for saving energy and reducing the heating of circuits with high data processing capability, but also for allowing for autonomous intelligent devices, either battery operated or capable of harvesting their own energy.

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Nanofutures Integrated Research and Industrial Roadmap, 2012

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European Commission (2008), “Work Programme 2009: Nanosciences, Nanotechnologies, Materials and New Production Technologies – NMP”, Theme 4

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In the area of security technologies, nanotechnology enables and improves various kinds of novel sensors, for example for detection of explosives. Together, the nanoenabled textiles, RFID products, functionalized nanocoatings and nano-enhanced imaging and non-invasive detection methods will significantly improve security and anticounterfeiting technologies. Advances in sensor technology require tight co-operation between many different fields of science. For instance sensors for explosives detection are based on advanced chemistry and nanotechnological innovations, but at the same time require (wireless) data transportation capabilities enabled by nanoelectronics and autonomous power supply and storage, of efficient energy harvesting.

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Nanostructured and nano-enhanced membranes are used for filtration, which can effectively remove pollutants, offer desalination potential (important for many increasingly arid coastal regions) and soften drinking water supplies. Furthermore, nanosorbents are being developed to remove different contaminants, such as arsenic, from drinking water sources. Nano-enabled sensors will improve the management of nutrient and water control of agricultural land thereby increasing productivity and, together with nanomaterials offering enhanced nutrient uptake, the potential for reduced use of agrichemicals leading to lessened environmental impact.

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Nano-encapsulation methods utilizing nano-emulsions or nanoparticle coatings offer the potential for improving the uptake of the human body to nutrients with processed food and reduce the sensitivity of nutrients to environmental conditions thus improving shelf life and reducing need for refrigeration. Product shelf lives can be improved with ‘smart packaging’ making use of nanobiosensors to allow for more effective monitoring of the food’s condition. Nanotechnologies such as nanobiosensors, nano-enabled immunoassays, and nano-enabled antimicrobial food packaging will lead to improved food safety in all aspects of the food chain.

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Energy (including energy conversion, efficiency, storage and transportation) is a field in which nanotechnology will lead to breakthroughs in the efficiencies of solar cells, the realization of high efficiency fuel cells, improved battery lifetimes and new energy storage solutions such as super capacitors. Enhanced electrolytes, nano-wires and coatings, and mesoporous separator membranes have the potential to improve energy efficiency and to reduce both the environmental impact and oil dependency in the automotive and transportation industry. Moreover, anti-scratch coatings on lightweight polycarbonate (PC) glass, nano-structured light metals, nano-steel replacements along with nanostructured spray coatings all help to produce lighter vehicles. In the construction industry, aerogels, nano-foams, and nano-enabled films & paints all have potential to reduce the overall energy consumption in buildings.

Biotechnology “Biotechnology (sometimes shortened to "biotech") is the use of living systems and organisms to develop or make useful products, or "any technological application that uses biological systems, living organisms or derivatives thereof, to make or modify products or 156 processes for specific use" (UN Convention on Biological Diversity) ” Headlines This definition is closely related to the definition of life sciences. The science of biotechnology can be divided into several sub-disciplines called red, white, green and blue. Red biotechnology is concerned with the discovery and development of innovative drugs and treatments. Green biotechnology is used to modify the genetic composition of plants to enhance existing traits or add new ones. It can also be applied to treat nutritional deficiencies. White biotechnology or industrial biotechnology is the application of biotechnology for the industrial processing and production of chemicals, materials and fuels. It includes the practice of using micro-organisms or components of micro-organisms like enzymes to generate industrially useful products, substances and chemical building blocks

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http://www.cbd.int/convention/text/

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with specific capabilities that conventional petrochemical processes cannot provide. Blue biotechnology concerns marine and aquatic applications of biotechnology. Bioinformatics is an interdisciplinary field that deals with computational techniques to biological problems. More specific trends and developments The main biotechnology techniques can be summarized as:

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DNA/RNA: Genomics, pharmacogenomics, gene probes, genetic engineering, DNA/RNA sequencing/synthesis/amplification, gene expression profiling, and use of antisense technology.

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Proteins and other molecules: Sequencing/synthesis/engineering of proteins and peptides (including large molecule hormones); improved delivery methods for large molecule drugs; proteomics, protein isolation and purification, signalling, identification of cell receptors.

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Cell and tissue culture and engineering: Cell/tissue culture, tissue engineering (including tissue scaffolds and biomedical engineering), cellular fusion, vaccine/immune stimulants, embryo manipulation.

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Process biotechnology techniques: Fermentation using bioreactors, bioprocessing, bioleaching, biopulping, biobleaching, biodesulphurisation, bioremediation, biofiltration and phytoremediation.

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Gene and RNA vectors: Gene therapy, viral vectors.

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Bioinformatics: Construction of databases on genomes, protein sequences; modelling complex biological processes, including systems biology.

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Nanobiotechnology: Applies the tools and processes of nano/microfabrication to build devices for studying biosystems and applications in drug delivery, diagnostics etc.

Important new developments are situated around epigenetics and interactomics.

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Epigenetics deals with the chemical reactions needed to switch parts of the genome off and on at strategic times and locations. An epigenome basically instructs DNA. Epigenetics play an important role with respect to nutrition and the potential impact of food on e.g. newborns. Another important link is the one with the human brain, as many brain functions are accompanied at the cellular level by changes in gene expression. Epigenetic mechanisms such as histone modification and DNA methylation stabilize gene 158 expression, which is important for long-term storage of information.

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Interactomics on the other hand, focuses on the intersection of bioinformatics and biology and interactions and the consequences of those interactions between and among proteins, and other molecules within a cell.

In the following paragraphs, a concise overview will be presented of the expected technology 159, 160 developments by application area, up to 2030

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Biotechnology applications for plants and animals Several new types of GM crop varieties that focus on the traits herbicide tolerance and pest resistance are expected to be available for varieties of barley, sugar beet, peanuts, peas, potato, rice, and safflower by 2015. Current research on agronomic traits focuses on improved yield and resistance to stresses such as drought, salinity and high temperatures. GM varieties of faster-growing tree species and tree varieties with altered lignin for use in pulp or bioethanol production will be ready for commercialization in the near future. The largest potential for biotechnology in marine applications is the use of DNA fingerprinting to manage wild fish stocks and the use of marker assisted selection and other techniques that do not involve GM to develop improved varieties of fish,

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OECD (2005) - A framework for biotechnology statistics

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http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/epigenetics/

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The Bioeconomy to 2030, OECD report

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HLEG Report on Industrial biotechnology

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mollusks and crustaceans for aquaculture. By 2030, animal cloning may be applied to produce high-value animal breeding stock and compounds such as pharmaceuticals. Additional progress will be made in applying GM to small market crops and in breeding programs for major staple crops which may increase levels of essential minerals and vitamins. Improved varieties of major food and feed crops with higher yield, pest resistance and stress tolerance may be developed through GM, MAS, intragenics or cisgenesis.

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Biotechnology applications in human health Biotechnological knowledge is likely to be used in the discovery and development process for all new pharmaceuticals in the near future. The main biotechnological products for human health are pharmaceuticals, experimental and emerging therapies (including cellular, gene, and stem cell research) and diagnostics. The main challenge is to create and analyse data on individual genomes, validated biomarkers, and treatment outcomes. Pharmacogenetics might be increasingly used in clinical trials, while improved safety and efficacy of therapeutic treatments can be reached due to linking pharmacogenetic data, prescribing data, and long-term health outcomes. Moreover, new nutraceuticals are expected to be developed in the coming decade. DNA sequencing of a patient’s genome makes it possible to customize management of disease. It is expected that by 2020 genome sequencing technology will be developed to provide diagnosis to conditions that were previously not available. This also poses enormous challenges regarding the level of data storage, management, analysis and visualization. Pharmacogenetics will provide insights into how individuals respond to drugs in order to, as a result, eliminate undesired reactions. Cancer genomics will facilitate early detection of cancer through identification of DNA mutations. ‘Direct to consumer’ companies will emerge, offering associated services directly to the consumer/patient.

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Biotechnology applications in industry A number of new biocatalysts and advanced fermentation processes will be developed that are faster, less expensive and more versatile than comparable chemical catalysts. Many processes will rely on specialty enzymes tailored to specific production processes and environmental conditions. Due to recent advances in industrial biotechnology, it is now also possible to produce very specific enzymes with particular characteristics, which opens the way to some innovative and emerging applications e.g. enzyme mixtures are used in enzymatic contact lens cleaners as they destroy all protein deposits and leave 161 the lenses clean. There is also a lot of research in the area of biofuels, for example, in the area of high-density biofuels such as alcohols, alkanes (e.g. methane, propane, octane etc.) and ethers. These biofuels could be produced by microbes and offer major advantages over ethanol and biodiesel due to their high energy content and low water solvability. Biotechnology entails the possibility of offering technological solutions to many of the health and resource-based problems facing the world. It can improve the supply and environmental sustainability of food, feed and fibre production, improve water quality, provide renewable energy, improve the health of animals and people, and help maintain biodiversity by detecting invasive species. The application of biotechnology to primary production, health and industry results in an emerging “Bio-economy” that refers to advanced knowledge of genes and complex cell processes, renewable biomass, and the 162 integration of biotechnology applications across sectors. Technological opportunities involve improved enzymes and improved micro-organisms which can produce an increasing number of chemical products in one step, some of which build on genes identified through bio prospecting.

161

European Biofuels Technology Platform (2010), “Strategic Research Agenda, 2010 Update, Innovation Driving Sustainable Biofuels”

162

The Bioeconomy to 2030, OECD report

55

Photonics “Photonics is the science of the harnessing of light. Photonics encompasses the generation of light, the detection of light, the management of light through guidance, manipulation, and 163 164 amplification, and most importantly, its utilisation for the benefit of mankind. , ” Headlines The European Commission has identified Photonics as one of the Key Enabling Technologies. Photonic technologies are used to light up homes, offices and cities; to harvest renewable energy from the sun; to make telephone calls or surf the Internet; to provide early medical diagnosis and treatments; to provide clean and efficient manufacture of a multitude 165 of everyday products; or to provide reliable security systems to protect us as we travel. Optics and photonics technologies are ubiquitous: they are responsible for the displays on smart phones and computing devices, optical fibre that carries the information in the internet, advanced precision manufacturing, enhanced defence capabilities, and a plethora of medical diagnostics tools. More specific trends and developments



Information and communication technologies Photonic technologies are at the heart of the ICT infrastructure, which relies heavily on fibre optic communications. It has the potential to make future networks more transparent, more dynamic, faster and to consume less energy. For example, as the physical scaling of transistors comes to an end, new approaches are needed to ensure continued enhancement in system performance. Photonics is uniquely positioned to enable innovative distributed architectures of otherwise all electronic systems. Optical interconnects are, in principle, capable of solving the wiring and IO bottlenecks of CMOS circuitry. CMOS Photonics enables a new class of low power, low cost, high density 166 solutions.



Lasers Lasers can be used as a versatile manufacturing tool; cutting and joining, ablation and deposition, drilling, and marking. Laser systems allow manufacturing of complex, highefficiency 2- and 3-dimensional device architectures. Future high-volume applications may generate a demand for laser systems to machine high-strength steels, build lightweight and crash-safe structures to manufacture photovoltaic cells and semiconductors and miniaturised components for use in medical technology. Lasers can be customised to make new product shapes and ‘lot size one’ production capabilities.



Imaging and sensors Screening and medical imaging methods based on photonics will strengthen preventive medicine and the early detection of diseases. Non-invasive or minimally invasive treatments (therapeutic laser systems) will help to improve patients’ lifestyle and mobility. Combining microfluidics with photonics allows making ultra-sensitive ‘lab on a chip’ biosensors. These sensors can measure minute amounts of substances in small sample volumes and make it possible to assess patients rapidly at bedside. In addition, sensors can also be used to detect dangerous and illegal goods as light is well suited for contactless sensing and measurement. Research in this area will focus on diagnostic tools, on tools for preclinical research, and on the development of autonomous, wireless sensor networks.

163

The term Photonics was coined in 1967 by Pierre Aigrain, a French scientist

164

http://www.photonics21.org/download/SRA_2010.pdf

165

HLG-Photonics

166

CMOS Photonics 101 (2012), http://www.ieee802.org/3/100GNGOPTX/public/mar12/plenary/palkert_03b_0312_NG100GOPTX.pdf

56



Lighting and displays Improvements in lighting and displays can reduce the amount of electricity consumed by lighting and hence add to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. This opens out many opportunities for the development of solid-state lighting and for displays for special applications. Other promising fields of research are emerging photonic materials and new technologies and functional devices, including nanophotonic devices, allowing the convergence of photonic and electronic technologies along with photonic integration technologies. Photonics can help us respond to the challenges we face in health, energy generation, energy saving and in providing next-generation broadband to the knowledge society. The opportunities arising from optics and photonics offer the potential for large societal impact in the next few decades, including solar power generation and new efficient lighting that could transform the nation's energy landscape and new optical capabilities that will be essential to support the continued exponential growth of the Internet.

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Green photonics Green photonics comprises photonics solutions that generate or conserve energy, cut greenhouse gas emissions, reduce pollution, yield environmentally sustainable outputs 167 or improve public health. Green photonics is a key technology that has the potential to improve the global balance of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Green photonics covers a broad range of optical technologies and applications: photovoltaic energy generation, highly efficient solid-state lighting (SSL), advanced sensing and instrumentation for environmental monitoring, new energy-efficient communication technologies and clean manufacturing using laser processing.

Today, the major highways of communication and information flows are optical. The data rates of the internet are rising with advances in lasers, optical fibres and optical coding technologies. Optical high-speed broadband networks are driving the knowledge society, opening the door to new services and business opportunities. In the future, computers and telephones will be connected through optical signals, and no longer by network cables. Moreover, information and communication technology contributes to collecting and processing data to avoid danger and to enhance safety and security. Safety and security include all measures to counter collective and individual risks. While ‘security’ relates to taking preventive measures against physical and intentional attacks, ‘safety’ aims to reduce possible dangers from the operation of systems and machinery or from environmental hazards. Sensors and measuring devices play an important role as they enable to detect dangers at a very early stage for example intelligent driver-assistance systems and night vision systems in cars.

Advanced manufacturing technologies “Definition of Advanced Manufacturing: Advanced Manufacturing Systems (AMS) comprise production systems and associated services, processes, plants and equipment, including automation, robotics, measurement systems, cognitive information processing, signal processing and production control by high-speed information and communication 168 systems .” Headlines Manufacturing is an indispensable element of the innovation chain: manufacturing enables technological innovations to be applied in goods and services, which are marketable in the marketplace and is key to making new products affordable and accessible so as to multiply 169 In addition, their societal and economic benefits and achieve the desired impacts.

167

Second Strategic research Agenda in Photonics, Lighting the way ahead; Photonics 21

168

High Level Group on Key Enabling Technologies (2010), Thematic Report by the Working Team on Advanced Manufacturing Systems, an initiative of the European Commission

169

EFFRA, Factories of the Future PPP FoF 2020 Roadmap

57

mechatronics is an interdisciplinary area of engineering that combines mechanical and 170 electrical engineering and computer science. More specific trends and developments



Advanced manufacturing technologies

Manufacturing is an R&D&I (research, development and innovation) intensive activity. Advanced manufacturing is a family of activities that (a) depend on the use and coordination of information, automation, computation, software, sensing, and networking, and/or (b) make use of cutting edge materials and emerging capabilities enabled by the physical and biological sciences, for example nanotechnology, chemistry, and biology. It involves both new ways to manufacture existing products, and the manufacture of new products emerging from 171 new advanced technologies. The European Commission has identified Advanced Manufacturing Technologies as one of the six KETs as it comprises production systems and associated services, processes, plants and equipment, including automation, robotics, measurement systems, cognitive information processing, signal processing and production control by high-speed information and 172 Advanced Manufacturing Technologies involve manufacturing communication systems. operations that create high-tech products, use innovative techniques in manufacturing and invent new processes and technologies for future manufacturing. Emerging research, development and innovation opportunities have been identified for advanced manufacturing. The most significant process and service technologies identified 173 included :



additive manufacturing



net shape manufacturing



robotics and automation



customisation



small run technologies (including distributed manufacture and ‘batch size of one’)



micro and nano-manufacturing processes



end of life activities: recycling, re-use, renewing and re-living



surface engineering (finishing and coating processes)



link design and manufacturing more closely



integrating technologies and processes



bioprocessing for new/replacement materials/fuels



ICT and enabling ICT structures



precision manufacturing



human centred manufacturing

Factories of the future require a change in the manufacturing paradigm by introducing new methods and process technologies within the factory in order to ensure both the required 174 New quality and sufficiently high productivity to guarantee cost-efficient manufacturing. machine tools and manufacturing systems will be developed to enable efficient, viable and

170 171

http://www.mcgs.ch/mechatronics_definition.html President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, Report to the President on Ensuring American Leadership in Advanced Manufacturing, June 2011, p. ii.

172

HLEG, Report on Advanced Manufacturing

173

TSB, A landscape for the future of high value manufacturing in the UK

174

Factories of the Future PPP FoF 2020 Roadmap, EFFRA

58

sustainable manufacturing of future products, complemented by new methods to design and manage their co-evolution during the lifecycle. The production and advanced manufacturing industry faces intense and growing competitive pressure on several fronts. Manufacturing in more mature traditional sectors is increasingly migrating to low-wage countries such as China and India, while manufacturing in high-tech sectors endures heavy competition for other developed economies. Moreover, China and India are also rapidly modernising their production methods and enhancing their 175 technological capabilities. In an increasingly automated world, advanced manufacturing will rely less on labour-intensive mechanical processes and more on sophisticated information-technology-intensive processes. These processes rely on sensors, robots, and condition-based systems to reduce the need for human interventions, while providing data and information for process oversight and improvement. Another trend in advanced manufacturing is digital manufacturing and 3D-printing. This brings dramatic time and cost savings in the implementation of new production facilities, through virtual representation of factories, buildings, resources, machine systems, and equipment. It also permits a closer integration of product and process development through modelling and simulation. The ‘virtual factory’ of the future will manufacture in adaptable networks linking medium- and large-sized OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) with value-chain partners and suppliers of factory equipment/services selected according to needs at a given time. Its composition will neither be limited by the presumption of physical co-location, nor by a need to maintain rigid long-term relationships.



Mechatronics 176

Mechatronic systems not only interface with materials, parts and products, but also cooperate safely with factory workers and communicate with other systems in the factory. They connect to manufacturing execution and monitoring systems on a higher factory and management level. Hence, manufacturing systems are becoming smarter in order to generate high value (quality, productivity) while consuming less energy and generating less waste. They feature high levels of autonomy and cognitive capabilities, largely inspired by and making use of robotic technologies. Major developments are expected in the following technological areas:



Control technologies



Cognition-based intelligent features within machinery and robots



Advanced machine interaction with humans through ubiquity of mobile devices



Monitoring



Intelligent machinery components and architectures

Five trends have been instrumental in the shift from traditional labour-intensive processes to advanced-technology-based processes. They are: (1) the ubiquitous role of information technology, (2) the reliance on modelling and simulation in the manufacturing process, (3) the acceleration of innovation in global supply-chain management, (4) the move towards rapid changeability of manufacturing in response to customer needs and external impediments, 177 These trends will and (5) the acceptance and support of sustainable manufacturing. continue and advanced manufacturing will become increasingly globally linked as automation and digital supply-chain management will become the norm across enterprise systems. Other trends that may have a significant impact on future manufacturing operations are converging technologies and miniaturisation.

175

Manufuture SRA – Executive summary

176

Factories of the Future PPP FoF 2020 Roadmap, EFFRA

177

Emerging Global Trends in Advanced Manufacturing

59

Manufacturing will become increasingly globally linked as automation and digital supply-chain 178 This will be possible through management become the norm across enterprise systems. the adoption of adaptive sensor networks to create intelligent feedback that will inform decision-making and analyses in real-time. There will be a need for secure management of massive amounts of data generated within the supply chain and manufacturing facility, with an accompanying need for cyber-security of globally linked enterprise systems. Increasing demand for flexibility and customisation may lead to the proliferation of additive manufacturing for customized geometry and integrated computational materials engineering for customized materials. These trends will allow for local manufacturing that adapts to the needs of the region as well as the flexibility to produce for a global market.

Health “Health and health care refers to the prevention, treatment, and management of illness and the preservation of mental and physical well-being through the services offered by the medical and allied health professions.” Headlines In health care, there will be a transition from remediating (helping the sick) to preventive types of health care. Early diagnostics, ICT based traceability systems, virtual care and social networking will play a role herein. Patients will be increasingly treated for conditions they are likely to get. Point of care testing and so-called patient centred medical homes will come on the scene. There are strong links with biotechnology, nanotechnology, advanced materials and ICT (see respective key staring fields) that will make it possible to change how health care is perceived, organised and provided. More specific trends and developments Below, we present a number of technological developments that are expected to shape the 179 future of healthcare .



Handling of healthcare data ICT is considered as one of the main challenges for healthcare, but it simultaneously entails many opportunities. The average operation rooms contain about 50-100 pieces of electronic equipment, many of which cannot communicate with each other. Internationally recognized interoperability standards will emerge, thereby promoting the adoption of integrated electronic health records. Traceability systems will be able to monitor and document the activities along the patient’s pathway. As the information per patient is expected to multiply, decision support systems and software will help healthcare staff to get access to good practices and as such to provide a ‘second opinion’.



Remote care, shift in point of care Technological developments will continue to move healthcare delivery setting away from high-cost hospitals to alternative low-cost environments. Telemedicine will enable patients to receive healthcare at home. Wireless biomedical sensors (like hemodynamic sensors surgically positioned to measure blood pressure) and ultra-wideband radar technology (for monitoring vital body functions) will enable monitoring of patients in their ‘natural’ environment. Smartphone applications will provide new ways of communicating between patients and healthcare providers and will also be used for monitoring purposes (smart phone monitoring). As a result of technological progress, the so-called point of care will move from the hospital to the patient’s environment. The timeline between the testing and availability of results will decrease, making early diagnosis possible, together with reduction in

178

Emerging Global Trends in Advanced Manufacturing

179

European Commission (2009), Special issue on healthcare Healthy ageing and the future of public healthcare systems, Social Sciences and Humanities

60

healthcare costs (e.g. lab on a chip technology). Traditional laboratory tests and technologies such as ultrasound, nucleic acid identification (for pathogen testing) and nuclear magnetic resonance (for cancer cell identification) become portable.



Next generation imaging – at the molecular level It is expected that medical imaging will move away from visualization of anatomical footprints to the visualization of the disease processes themselves. Diffuse optical imaging will emerge as a technique for non-invasive in vivo imaging of biological tissue at the molecular level. New contrast agents will add molecular information to anatomical images provided by MRI scans. The combination will provide detailed visualization of physiology within an anatomical reference, and will make the early identification (and monitoring) of diseases possible. Again data analysis will be essential in this respect (e.g. mathematic biology is a fast emerging research area focusing on the prediction of diseases).



Online social networking Online social networking will become an important channel for information gathering and sharing. Patients are sharing experiences (peer-to-peer) and are becoming better informed. Two-way communication is made possible between patients and healthcare professionals. The introduction of virtual reality environments, for training and education purposes, may also benefit the healthcare sector. Development in web technology will provide strong tools for online information retrieval. Through remote access, patients will be able to consult their own healthcare information (e.g. access lab results and share information with whom they choose) and as such also to contribute to their own health records. These developments are also referred to as the ‘clinical cloud’.



New medical treatment The advances in science and technology also influence the development of new medical devices that may improve disease management and treatment. Important developments are therapeutic vaccines (e.g. for the treatment of cancer) and nanomedicine (targeted delivery) that will be used for the targeted treatment of some cancers. Likewise, new antibiotics are expected to be developed. Surgery will have better spatial guidance tools, and some surgery will be performed without even breaking the skin by using highintensity ultra sound (MRI guided). Robotics will also be increasingly used, thereby increasing surgical precision.



Medical devices and implants New medical devices/implants (e.g. prosthetics of knees, hips or devices that are being commanded by the human brains, like robotic arms or legs, or even hearing implants that build-up energy from the temperature in the ear) will continue to emerge. Nanobiotechnology integration increasingly aims to connect devices to humans (e.g. Parkinson and deep brain stimulation).



Hospitals in 2020 Finally, hospitals are also expected transform. Some examples:



Healthcare professional develop competences in a virtual environment, before being allowed to treat real patients;



Clinical information is available on whiteboard facilitating an electronic and structured handover of information between healthcare professionals;



The surgeon follows up the patient after discharging through videoconferencing (online office visits);



The surgeon performs remote robotic surgery;



Patients are accommodated in single rooms with single bathrooms, and vital functions are monitored wirelessly;



Information about the patient is send to mobile devices of healthcare staff to ensure information symmetry and optimal communication.

61

Water “Water science and technology is an area that deals with all kinds of scientific and technological issues related to water (including fresh and sea-waters) and wastewater management and treatment.” Headlines Water is important for all forms of life, and is also a key resource for agriculture and industry. More specific trends and developments The European Technology Platform for Water (WssTP) has developed a strategic research agenda aiming to bring the European water sector in a leading position in terms of expertise and innovation by 2030. In order to deal with the challenges and trends, the platform has formulated 6 pilot programs (embracing the whole R&D and innovation chain, including market introduction). These programs, that reflect the key trends and development faced in 180 the area of water and water management, are presented below.



Mitigation of water stress in coastal zones “Promoting integrated water resources management to increase the coastal zone areas value chain with the highest concentration of people, coastal zones represent 61 % of the world’s GDP that is heavily dependent on water related resources. Addressing the associated pressures is made difficult not only by the variety of water body types but also by the large number of stakeholders, policies, legislation and conflicting interests. Forecasts predict further degradation of coastal zones, making it a socially and economically relevant focus area in need of specific applied science, technology and policy solutions.”



Sustainable water management in and around urban areas “Enhancing urban water services through efficient water management. More than 50% of the world population lives in urban areas. Urban areas, especially large or densely inhabited ones, raise specific issues with regard to water management. Urban areas require developments to manage efficiently the water services, safeguarding the public health while protecting the water resource and the aquatic ecosystems, and reducing the energy consumption and the carbon emission of the system.”



Sustainable water management and agriculture “Making the best of innovation for an integrated water management in agriculture. Agriculture is a significant user of water in Europe, accounting for around 24 % of total water use. The challenge of sustainable use of water in agriculture focuses on the key issues of irrigation, water reuse, and nutrient pollution but also water supply and demand balance.” This issue is also discussed under the field Food and Agriculture.



Sustainable water management for industry “Promoting a sustainable management of water in all industries. The industrial sector is of great economic importance, where water related cost can reach up to 25% of the total production cost. The main challenges are to promote a sustainable use of water in industries’ processes while ensuring efficient management and possible recovery of other resources required in the production such as raw materials or energy.”



Rehabilitation of degraded water zones (surface and groundwater) “Stimulating ecological processes and systems for an environmental water management. Numerous rivers such as the Guadalquivir, the Tirjo, the Rhine or the Elbe are subject to water exploitation, and 60% of European groundwater bodies are overexploited. To cope with the challenges of degraded zones on both ecological and chemical level calls for development of innovative technologies, among which ecological processes, to solve complex problems in water management.”

180

The European Water Platform (2010), Strategic Research Agenda, http://www.wsstp.eu

62



Adaptation to hydro-climatic extremes (droughts and floods) “Managing risks and adapting water management to extreme events. In recent years, the average estimated cost of droughts in Europe was 6,2 billion Euro/year, with a high of 8,7 billion in 2003. Costs of flooding due to extreme precipitation and run-off amount to figures in the same order of magnitude. As a consequence of global warming hydroclimatic extremes are anticipated to become more frequent and severe in magnitudes highlighting the needs for efficient adaptation (including preparedness and emergency and disaster management) even further.”



Technological implications 181 On the technology side, 16 key technology fields have been identified as important for tackling future water management related challenges. These are presented below. 1. Nutrient regeneration technologies; 2. Domestic sewage heat recovery technologies; 3. New biotechnical process for domestic sewage treatment with anaerobic technologies; 4. Technologies for the Elimination of Micro contaminations in Waste Water (e.g. drug residues); 5. Technologies and Processes for Retainment and Elimination of Nano Particles in Waste Water of Nano Technology Production Processes; 6. New Technical Approaches for Process Water Circulatory Management; 7. Chemical Independent Treatment Processes for the Drinking Water Production; 8. Membrane Development (sustainable resistance to biofilm vegetation, less susceptible); 9. Technologies for System Supervising, Detection of Pipe Damages, Condition Evaluation and Redevelopment of Water Grids; 10. Technologies to Treat and Use Various Kinds of Contaminated Rain Water; 11. Technologies to Use Air Humidity; 12. Technologies for the Desalination of Sea and Brackish, Water Using Renewable Energy; 13. Aquacultures with Simple and Robust Circulatory, Technologies in Modular Process Plants; 14. Chemical Independent Treatment Technologies for Bulk Water from Ships; 15. Adequate Irrigation Systems based on Intelligent Control Systems (“precision irrigation”); 16. Technologies for the Improvement of the Water Storage Capacity of Soil.

Higher efficiency levels of current water management are expected to go hand in hand with new options for additional water supplies. Examples are water desalination (including of 182 brackish groundwater), groundwater recharge and discovery, reclamation of wastewater. These new options appeal in terms of research, development and innovation breakthroughs (as already mentioned above).

Food and agriculture “Food is any substance consumed to provide nutritional support for the body. It is usually of plant or animal origin, and contains essential nutrients, such as carbohydrates, fats, proteins, vitamins, or minerals. The substance is ingested by an organism and assimilated by the organism's cells in an effort to produce energy, maintain life, or stimulate growth. Agriculture also called farming or husbandry is the cultivation of animals, plants, fungi, and other life forms for food, fibre, biofuel and other products used to sustain life.”

181

German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2009), “Roadmap Environmental Technologies 2020, Integrated Water Management”, European Foresight Platform, Foresight Brief No. 161

182

Ibid. Fout! Bladwijzer niet gedefinieerd.

63

Headlines Food consumption and production is by definition a field close to people and society as a whole. Food is one of the basic needs of humans, and is thus an important field for the future. The paragraphs below reflect the key developments presented by SCAR (Standing 183 and the work Committee on Agricultural Research) in its most recent foresight exercise, 184 carried out by the European Technology Platform “Food for Life.” More specific trends and developments Technological innovation will be essential. Key technologies related to food and agriculture are biotechnology (GM), nanotechnology, and ICT.



Agriculture The main expected biotechnology applications in agriculture encompass market assisted 185 In selection (MAS), genetic modification, propagation, therapeutics and diagnostics. the short run, the most important application of biotechnology to animal health is likely to be for diagnostics for genetic conditions and for recombinant vaccines.



Biotechnology (GM) The fastest uptake of GM technology is currently in soybeans (65% of global cultivation, expected to rise to 88% by 2015 already). Concerning application of GM in vegetables, nuts, fruits, olives and wine grapes - market varieties are very few and further growth will depend on consumer acceptance. Moreover, “omics” (genomics, metabolomics) will not only be applied in GM, but also in: upgrade of conventional breeding practices, enabling of cross-breeding strategies through ‘markers’, ecological engineering looking into the relationship between species and their environment. It is expected that developing countries will be much more involved in the commercialization of biotechnologies, mainly for new crop variances.



Nanotechnology Nanotechnologies are also making their entry into the food sector at a rapid pace. Nanotechnologies in food have different functions: food packaging improving functionality; enhancement of taste and the bioavailability of certain ingredients; reducing the content of elements such as sugar and salt and slowing down microbial activity. In agriculture, the following applications are expected: sensors and diagnostic devices for monitoring environmental conditions and plant and animal health; disease and pest control; water and nutrient control; genetic engineering of plants and livestock to improve productivity and agriculture as a means to produce nanomaterial. In food processing and functional food, following applications are expected: quality control; processing technology and functional foods. Uptake in foodstuffs is still limited as there are a lot of concerns about related to human safety and environment. There might also be implications for the labelling of food stuffs.



ICT ICT is becoming increasingly important for agriculture. Information provision is a key function (market information prices, weather forecasts, crop and livestock diseases, and general advice). ICT is however also important in terms of decision support systems in a drive to maximize production efficiency and minimize costs (digital imagery, GPS).

183

European Commission (2011), “Sustainable food consumption and production in a resource-constrained world”, Standing Committee on Agricultural Research

184

European Technology Platform on Food for Life, Strategic Research Agenda 2007-2020, Vision for 2020 and beyond

185

OECD-FAO, Agricultural Outlook; 2008-2017, http://www.fao.org/es/esc/common/ecg/550/en/AgOut2017E.pdf

64

Environment “Environment is a multi-disciplinary area as it combines various branches of studies like chemistry, physics, medical science, life science, agriculture, public health, sanitary engineering etc. It is the science of physical phenomena in the environment. It studies the sources, reactions, transport, effect and fate of physical a biological species in the air, water 186 and soil and the effects of human activity upon these.” Headlines The environment is the sum of all surroundings of a living organism, including natural forces and other living things which provide conditions for development and growth as well as of 187 It consists of a wide range of issues: changes in surroundings, danger and damage. climate, nature, quality of life and eco-efficiency. Where environmental conditions influence people’s lives and are thus of significant interest for them, it is the environment itself that is nowadays highly depended on people’s behaviour. The consumption society is one of the 188 189 main causes of today’s environmental problems, such as pollution and climate change. , More specific trends and developments Environmental Technologies refer to clean and resource efficient technologies which can decrease material inputs, reduce energy consumption and emissions, recover valuable by190 products, minimise waste disposal problems or a combination of these:



Environmental technologies in the context of pollution are process and product technologies that generate low or no waste. They also refer to end of the pipe technologies for treatment of pollution after it has been generated. Pollution can take place at several levels namely air, noise, soil and water.



Environmental technologies can also be seen in the context of resource management, referring to soil conservation technologies, preventing or reducing erosion, compaction and salinity, maintenance or improvement of fertility and drainage properties, waste management technologies, and sorting technologies.



Environmental technologies also concern industrial technologies and processes which are less polluting and less resource-intensive and/or employing energy-saving technologies through improved production systems (see starting field Energy). The challenge in the development and application of environmental technologies to the industrial sector is to streamline environmental measures without losing competitiveness.



Monitoring is an important aspect of environmental technologies. It concerns the development of new technologies and portals for accepting, sourcing, storing, organising, filtering and synthesising environmental data (link to the starting field ICT). A recent trend is the development of cloud-enabled environmental monitoring and catchment modelling technologies to provide improved web-based access to catchment information and predictions.

Below we present a selection 191 technologies/applications:

of

emerging

and

promising

environmental



Bioremediation: methods of cleaning up contamination using microbes and plants (e.g. nitrates in contaminated water with the help of microbes, arsenic from contaminated soil using plants)



Green Buildings: referring to green design, construction, operation, maintenance, renovation, demolition etc.

186

Aggarwal, V., (2010), Environmental Studies,

187

http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/environment.html

188

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2012), “21 Issues for the 21st century. Results of the UNEP Foresight Process on Emerging Environmental Issues”

189

European Environment Agency (2010), “The European Environment. State and Outlook 2010”, Synthesis

190

The environmental goods & services industry, OECD, 1999,

191

http://gelodj.com/lectures/Seminars/Presentation.pdf

65



Hydrogen fuel cell (see also starting field on Energy): believed to be one of the cleanest sources of energy.



Desalination: cost of fresh water rises strongly; water will be one of the most expensive commodities in the future because of lack of fresh water.



Making oil from different sources: biodiesel.

Systems research “Systems research and science is an interdisciplinary field that studies the nature of complex systems in nature, society, and science itself. It aims to develop interdisciplinary foundations that are applicable in a variety of areas, such as engineering, biology, medicine, and social 192 sciences.” Headlines Systems theory is a theoretical perspective that analyses a phenomenon seen as a whole and not as simply the sum of elementary part. The focus is on the interactions and interrelations between the parts in order to understand the overall organization, functioning and outcomes of the whole. As there is an increasing agreement on the fact that specific societal challenges can only be solved through a true multi-/interdisciplinary approach, systems research is becoming increasing important as complexity as such is also increasing. More specific trends and developments



System thinking in Biology 193 Systems biology is a new approach applied to biomedical and biological research. It focuses on the interactions within biological systems using a more holistic perspective. One of the aims is to model and discover emergent properties, properties of cells, tissues and organisms functioning as a system (metabolic networks or cell signalling networks). Methods of systems biology concern genomics/transcriptomics, proteomics, chemical libraries, metabolomics and data analysis. For example, in relation to food metabolism, the gut microbiome has been studied with metafenomic tools. Promising trends are developments whereby genome-scale metabolic models are used in studying interactions between human hosts and microbes, as well as microbes in isolation and in communities. Bioinformatics plays an important role in modern systems biology by putting mathematical and computational sciences as an equal partner to analytical and 194 Furthermore, mathematical and computational models are experimental biology. expected to become increasingly prevalent representations of our knowledge about specific biochemical systems. In order to make full use of systems biology, a number of challenges need to be tackled. First, analytical methods need to evolve in order to obtain insights across multi-scale biology. Second, generation and data collection are resource intensive. More collaboration is needed in this area.



Systems thinking in ICT Smart systems are miniaturized devices that incorporate functions of sensing, actuation and control. Smart (ICT enabled) self-reflecting systems (with Self-detection, selfdiagnostic, self-corrective and self-controlled functions) already know a wide area of application, and this is even expected to be broadened. For example, by 2020 many experts think that tech-enhanced homes, appliances, and utilities will be spread, but that

192

Mele, C., J. Pels, F. Polese (2010), “ A brief review of systems theory and their managerial applications”, Services Science, pp. 126-135

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Business Research (2011), “The Future of Systems Biology: Emerging Technologies and their Impact on Drug Discovery, Development and Diagnostics”

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Likic et al., 2010, Systems Biology: The next frontier for bioinformatics, Advanced Bioinformatics

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at the same time we will still not be living in the ‘house of the future’. Or will we? Obstacles mentioned in this respect are the costs related to infrastructural changes. Other potential applications are to be found in energy (smart grids), health care (sensing), food chain (microbiological checks), traffic etc. Neuroinformatics is an emerging field of study that uses informatics to bridge the gap between (1) the large volume of complex or high-dimensional data being generated in neuroscience labs and (2) the computational models and analysis methods needed to analyse and interpret these data, with the aim of understanding brain function and 196 malfunction. Integration of data represents a significant challenge to researchers. This major challenge is the integration of multiple components developed and produced in very different technologies and materials. This calls for an integrated design and manufacturing and an interdisciplinary approach and solution.

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Systems thinking in family system theory A totally different field where ‘system thinking’ has proven to be beneficial is family. Family systems theory has a significant impact on the study of families and on approaches to working with families. It has guided research into such areas as understanding traumatic events or chronic health issues and their impact on individuals and families, substance abuse intervention and treatment modalities, and kinship networks. Family systems theory will also be challenged to consider cultural and broader contextual issues that influence families. The integration of family systems theory into the medical realm, the study of ethnic and cultural differences, and broader systems are likewise future challenges.

Energy In physics, energy is an indirectly observed quantity that is often understood as the ability of a physical system to do work on other physical systems. Since work is defined as a force acting through a distance (a length of space), energy is always equivalent to the ability to exert pulls or pushes against the basic forces of nature, along a path of a certain length. Headlines Energy covers a whole range of subsectors, related to different technologies/energy sources. The sector ‘renewable energy’ covers several subsectors like wind (onshore, offshore), sun (PV: photovoltaic, CSP: concentrated solar power and sun thermic), biomass (biogas, biomass, waste, biofuel, bio-refinery), heat (heat pumps, geothermic) and hydropower and 197 In addition, there are a number of related segments like energy savings ocean energy. (buildings, processes), smart grids, hydrogen & fuel cells, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). More specific trends and developments

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Subsectors in energy 198 One can distinguish several subsectors in energy:  End-use energy efficiency (thermal integrity of buildings, lighting, electric appliances, motor drives, heat pumps, etc.)  Renewable energy in centralized and decentralized power generation, in direct heating and cooling applications, as well as for blending with gasoline or diesel oil  Supercritical coal plants, advanced gas combined cycle plants and CHP  CO2 carbon capture and storage (CCS)

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The Future of Smart Systrems (2012), http://pewinternet.org/Reports/2012/Future-of-Smart-Systems.aspx

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www.neuroinformatics.nl

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Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and International Energy Agency (2012), “Energy Technology Perspectives 2012: Pathways to a Clean Energy System”

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http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/trends_2030/index_en.htm

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Nuclear energy (generation III and III+) Advanced transmission and distribution grids and smart metering

Although several of these technologies are known today, substantial industrial research and demonstration is still needed before deployment can take place on a wide scale. Multiple technologies can contribute to the advancement of this area. For example, nanotechnology is expected to have long-term impacts on energy transmission and 199 Nanotechnology has the potential to make transportation fuels more efficient, use. potentially reducing the likely increase in demand for long-distance shipment of liquid fuels. Quantum dot nanocrystal technologies can improve the efficiency of solar energy systems and are less costly to produce in comparison to crystalline-silicon wafers that are currently begin used. Within the renewable energy technologies for heating and cooling, solar thermal (ST) has specific benefits, as it leads to a direct reduction of primary energy consumption and can be combined with nearly all kinds of back-up heat sources. Also biomass district heating is of growing importance in Scandinavia, Austria, and other countries where demand for heat by the residential /service sector is high. Likewise geothermal energy has a huge 200 potential.

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European Strategic Energy Technology Plan In order to address the challenge of an effective low-carbon policy, efficient energy technologies and a worldwide climate change, the European Commission has launched 201 the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan). The SET-Plan provides a framework to accelerate the development and deployment of cost-effective low carbon technologies for 2020. With such comprehensive strategies, the EU is on track to reach its 2020 goals of a 20% reduction of CO2 emissions, a 20% share of energy from lowcarbon energy sources and 20% reduction in the use of primary energy by improving energy efficiency by 2020. The SET-Plan includes:

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The European Industrial Bioenergy Initiative The European CO 2 Capture, Transport and Storage Initiative The European Electricity Grid Initiative The Fuel Cells and Hydrogen (FCH) Joint Technology Initiative The Sustainable Nuclear Initiative Energy Efficiency – The Smart Cities Initiative The Solar Europe Initiative The European Wind Initiative The SET-Plan Steering Group (SET-Group) The European Energy Research Alliance (EERA) The SET-Plan Information System (SETIS)

In addition, the European Climate Foundation has funded a study to develop a roadmap for 203 The study has two 2050, to offer a practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe. primary objectives: a) to investigate the technical and economic feasibility of achieving at least an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below 1990 levels by 2050, while maintaining or improving today’s levels of electricity supply reliability, energy security, economic growth and prosperity; and b) to derive the implications for the European energy system over the next 5 to 10 years.

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Deloitte, energy & resources predictions 2012

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Common Vision for the Renewable Heating & Cooling sector in Europe

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http://setis.ec.europa.eu/about-setis/overview

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European Industrial Bioenergy Initiative (EIBI) (2010), “Boosting the contribution of Bioenergy to the EU climate and energy ambitions”, Implementation Plan 2010 - 2012

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http://www.roadmap2050.eu/attachments/files/Volume1_fullreport_PressPack.pdf

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Cognitive neurosciences “Cognitive neuroscience is the scientific study of the nervous system, which developed as a branch of biology but quickly became an interdisciplinary science that includes disciplines such as psychology, computer science, statistics, physics, philosophy, and medicine. As a result, the scope of cognitive neuroscience has broadened to include different approaches used to study the molecular, developmental, structural, functional, evolutionary, 204 computational, and medical aspects of the nervous system.” Headlines The human brain is the most complex living structure in the known universe. It has a capacity to store more information than a supercomputer and to create a network of connections that 205 206 far surpasses any social network. Neurosciences are an important branch of research. More than 1,000 disorders of the brain and nervous system result in more hospitalisations than any other disease group, including heart disease and cancer. In 2007, the World Health Organisation estimated that neurological disorders affect up to one billion people worldwide. In fact, neurological diseases make up 11% of the world’s disease burden, not including mental health and addiction disorders. The cost of these diseases is high across the globe. For example, the European Brain Council estimated that neurological diseases in Europe alone cost one trillion dollars a year in 2010. In addition, cognitive neurosciences are also involved in researching and developing 207 implantable brain sensors designed to enhance neurological function; and in developments with regard to brain-computer interfaces. The majority of the latter developments are driven by clinical applications, to replace or restore lost communication or locomotion abilities in 208 An important aspect to brain patients suffering from severe neuromuscular disorders. computer interfaces in the respect for personal ownership. More specific trends and developments

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Neurosciences Neuroscientists specialize in the study of the brain and the nervous system. The major goal of neuroscience is to understand how groups of neurons interact to generate behaviour. Neuroscientists study the actions of molecules, genes, and cells, and also explore the complex interactions involved in bodily function, decision making, emotion, learning, and more. They also seek to understand diseases and disorders that occur when interactions don't happen or go wrong. Knowledge of the human nervous system is based in part on on-going fundamental discoveries in animals (e.g., worms, flies, fish, frogs, mice, and primates), aided by computer simulations. New technologies to confront neural circuits fall into two categories: ways to observe and perturb the millisecond-timescale dynamics, and ways to observe and engineer wiring 209 Optogenetic technologies offer much potential for fixing the neural and structure. circuit changes associated with intractable brain disorders. Over a billion people suffer from a brain disorder and many cannot be treated, and most of the treatments that do exist are partial and have side effects. Therefore, one appealing idea regarding optogenetics is that one could activate or silence exactly the set of cells that would repair a brain disorder, leaving nearby cells unaffected. 210

First, Several challenges can be identified for neurological disorders. neurodegenerative disorders have the challenge of slow progression and therefore long and expensive clinical trials. Depression has the challenge of poor mechanistic

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http://sbs.arizona.edu/support/undergraduate/

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http://www.brainfacts.org/about-neuroscience/what-is-neuroscience/

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http://sbs.arizona.edu/support/undergraduate/ http://www.psychologycareercenter.org/cognitive-neuroscientist.html

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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3365813/

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Trends in Neurosciences, interview with Edward S. Boyden

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Trends in Neurosciences, interview with Michael D. Ehlers

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understanding and clinical studies with placebo rates that can be 30-40%. Schizophrenia and autism have an emerging genetics, but this is highly heterogeneous. Moreover, neuroscience has to make significant progress in the use of precision medicine and more selective genetic/genomic and biomarker-based disease definition.

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Challenges for neuroscience research Three key challenges for neuroscience research can be identified:

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Map the connectivity of the nervous system: a more complete understanding of neural circuitry would enable further progress on remaining questions in many areas of neuroscience research, such as how and where information is stored in the nervous system and how activity in neural circuits generates behaviour and cognitive functions. In addition, a connectivity map may help explain and guide treatment development for disorders of the nervous system that may be viewed as "connectopathies," with abnormal circuit structure or activity. Develop a safe, effective treatment for one or more neurodegenerative disorders: Neurodegeneration and neuronal cell death occur in a range of neurological disorders, whether chronically as during the course of progressive degenerative diseases, or more acutely as in the aftermath of injury or stroke. Develop biomarkers for predicting and monitoring disease progression and treatment outcomes: There is a need for better biomarkers for predicting, diagnosing, and monitoring disease, and to serve as targets of biologic efficacy in clinical trials.

Cognitive sciences Cognitive Science, closely related to neurosciences, is the interdisciplinary study of how information is represented and transformed in the human brain. It consists of multiple research disciplines, including psychology, artificial intelligence, philosophy, neuroscience, learning sciences, linguistics, anthropology, sociology, and education. It spans many levels of analysis, from low-level learning and decision mechanisms to high211 level logic and planning; from neural circuitry to modular brain organisation. Paul Thagard identified four major trends in current cognitive science:

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The first trend is that cognitive neuroscience is becoming increasingly central to all branches of psychology. Brain scanning technology is continuing to improve, with more powerful fMRI machines and other technologies such as transcranial magnetic simulation and near-infrared spectroscopy providing new experimental findings about how brains produce thoughts. Theoretical neuroscience is generating new views of the nature of representation and computation that can even be applied to difficult questions concerning emotions, consciousness, and creativity. Progress in cognitive neuroscience also has important implications for traditional philosophical issues such as the mind-body problem, free will, and even the meaning of life. A second important trend in cognitive science has been the increasing prominence of statistical models based on Bayesian probability theory. These models have been applied to many important phenomena in cognitive psychology and also have had impressive applications in robotics such as the operation of autonomous vehicles. The third important trend that deserves more attention is increasing emphasis on embodiment. In philosophy, this concern has erroneously led to claims that the important mental roles of the body and the world require rejection of the computational-representational understanding of mind. In psychology, however, there has been a more reasonable recognition that aspects of thinking such as images and emotions require expansion and modification of traditional ideas about representation and computation. Appreciation of the role of embodiment in cognition is enhanced by the first trend I mentioned: advances in cognitive neuroscience (both experimental and theoretical) are revealing how the brain uses information gathered from the senses and interaction with the world to perform complex tasks.

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http://sbs.arizona.edu/support/undergraduate/ http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/hot-thought/201112/what-s-new-in-cognitive-science

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The fourth important trend in cognitive science today is greater appreciation of the social dimensions of cognition, which may seem go in the opposite direction from the biological trend of cognitive neuroscience but is actually compatible with it. Psychology and anthropology have increasingly shown ways in which human thinking is affected by the interactions that people have with others in the culture they share. These interactions depend on biological mechanisms such as the generation and transmission of emotions, but social changes also produce biological changes. Cognitive science needs to be able to integrate increased understanding of the social context of thinking with understanding of neural mechanisms.

Challenges for cognitive science research 213

Four future challenges for cognitive research have been identified:  The first great challenge for cognitive science is to include the interaction between the human being and its environment.  The second challenge is to aim to go beyond means and understand not only how variability in performance differs within and across individuals, but also across the lifespan. This will most likely involve employing statistical methods that are used in related disciplines or even developing new methods.  The third challenge is to work more collaboratively within and across cognitive topics with the aim of moving toward an interdisciplinary science that is also integrative.  The fourth and greatest challenge for cognitive science is to keep the science of the mind moving forward and breaking new frontiers, without revisiting past knowledge.

Knowledge Intensive Business Services “Knowledge Intensive Business Services (commonly known as KIBS) are services and business operations heavily reliant on professional knowledge. They are mainly concerned with providing knowledge-intensive support for the business processes of other organizations. As a result, their employment structures are heavily weighted towards scientists, engineers, and other experts. It is common to distinguish between T-KIBS, (those with high use of scientific and technological knowledge - R&D services, engineering services, computer services, etc.), .), and P-KIBS, who are more traditional professional services legal, accountancy, and many management consultancy and marketing services. These services either supply products which are themselves primary sources of information and knowledge, or use their specialist knowledge to produce services which facilitate their clients own activities. Consequently, KIBS usually have other businesses as their main clients, though the public sector and sometimes voluntary organisations can be important customers, and to some extent households will feature as consumers of, for instance, legal and 214 accountancy services”. Headlines The Services sector or industry (also known as tertiary sector) consists of the “softer” parts of the economy. People offer their knowledge and time to improve productivity, performance, potential and sustainability. The services sector is everywhere around us and represents an important part of our socio-economic reality. Over the last years this sector has been growing strongly as a result of the “increasing participation of knowledge in most economic production processes”. This is particularly true for the so-called Knowledge Intensive Business Services that are more manufacturing and service business related.

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http://www.frontiersin.org/Cognitive_Science/10.3389/fpsyg.2010.00007/full Miles, I., Kastrinos, N., Bilderbeek, R. and den Hertog, P. (1995) "Knowledge-Intensive Business Services: Users, Carriers and Sources of Innovation", EIMS Publication

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More specific trends and developments Nowadays a distinction is made between general service sectors and the more knowledge intensive service sectors that are becoming increasingly important. The latter includes many 215 such as computer and management consulting, diverse forms of professional services types of specialist functions such as marketing and advertising, staff recruitment, and trade promotion or distribution logistics, as well as telecommunications, air transport, financial activities, and educational services. Innovation intensity in Knowledge Intensive Business Services is high, regardless the fact that intellectual property protection is challenging. New technological solutions have helped to introduce new services over distances helping firms active in this sector to enlarge their geographical range. The future of Knowledge Intensive Business Services will be driven by social factors and influences from general economic and political level, next to technological developments.

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Technological challenges/opportunities  Industrialization of services: referring to the standardisation of work procedures and the production of standardised services, leading to a form of standardisation of the services itself.  ICT, technology and R&D: ICT is considered to be the major driver within the Knowledge Intensive Business Services. ICT provides new possibilities for services delivery, increases the traceability of services, and helps to increase the global nature of this business.  Globalisation: through liberalisation and deregulation, new opportunities have and are still arising. Growing shares of outsourcing between countries and regions can be observed.  Demography and increasing knowledge-intensity in the economy: ageing is without any doubt one of the major triggers for the creation of new services niches. With the differentiation of society and its needs, new niches occur.  Local character: despite the global opportunities, Knowledge Intensive Business Services remain largely a local phenomenon due to differences in culture and language between countries, geographical distances. Possible future innovations in Knowledge Intensive Business 217 Services  Increasing computing capabilities as well as advances in describing and analysing natural and social systems will provide new technological opportunities for computer simulations in all types of Knowledge Intensive Business Services. Services based on these simulations will, for example, provide new ways of virtual testing.  The use of the Internet offers a growing range of new possibilities for services with high information input. By using new information, communication, and related technologies, Knowledge Intensive Business Services enhance productivity in the whole economy by improving their own productivity figures. In particular, taking advantage of ICT plays an important role as a converter or broker of technological information (spill overs to other parts of the economy).  Convergence, suggesting that service activities and service products which have their origins in two or more different Knowledge Intensive Business Services industries are becoming increasingly entangled; this may promote service innovation. Trends in the customer service market  The customer service market is shaped by the needs and behaviours of both customers and businesses. As the demands change, the customer service market will change as well. In general, customers will have more control of the customer service experience whereby personalization plays an important role. Customer support will also have to be provided continuously. Below we outline several important trends and developments that will shape the future services markets:

INNOVA (2011), “Sectoral Innovation Watch – Knowledge Intensive Services Sector”, Consortium Europe INNOVA Sectoral Innovation Watch, study commissioned by the European Commission Ibid. 215 Op cit. INNOVA, 2011

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Social Media for Customer Service Continues Customer service will find its way into any communications channel adopted by consumers, and social media will not be different. Organizations could view social media as one channel of their overall customer service. Sound customer service processes are, however, still required. More Power to the Customer With the growth of communications channels such as forums and social media, poor customer experiences can be communicated to the world in seconds. The customer increasingly controls the kind of service they would like to receive either by switching organizations, or communicating it through social channels. Customer-To-Customer Support The customer community itself is often one of the best support channels an organization could have. Its power is due to the sheer numbers of support personnel (customers) it has. Collaborative community customer support can be a great ‘partner’ in overall service provision. Self-Service Adoption Continues to Grow Businesses like self-service because it is cost-effective and continuously available. Customers like self-service because they can find what they are looking for without delay. Out-sourcing is Out, In-sourcing is In. Increasingly, companies realize that customer support is too important to be outsourced and will increasingly be transferring this function back home. It is considered a key strategic function in the relationship with the customer.

Security “Security is the degree of protection to safeguard a nation, union of nations, persons or 218 person against danger, damage or loss.” Headlines Security is a broad concept, touching on numerous global societal challenges and developments; security has to be safeguarded by nations and governments; it has many dimensions and can be considered on several levels. Besides the clearly political dimension, there is also a societal and even strong technological dimension that needs to be addressed. 219 Without security there is no There is a clear nexus between security and development. economic development and progress. There is a greater need for improved international cooperation and coordination, and the development of new forms of private-public partnerships. More specific trends and developments Security is, at the same time, an economic sector. The security industry is one of the sectors with the highest potential for growth and employment in the EU. The European Commission has made the security industry one of the essential parts of the EU 2020 flagship initiative on 220 industrial policy. It is a priority for the Commission to establish a better functioning internal market for security technologies. Problems faced by the EU security industry are 1) fragmentation of the market, 2) the gap between research and the market, 3) societal dimension of security technologies (affecting private and family life, data protection issues, and privacy or human dignity).

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http://computercontrolsecurity.com/why-security-is-important/

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Schreier, F. (2011), “Trends and challenges in international security – an inventory”, Occasional paper 19, Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces

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European Commission (2012), “COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE, Security Industrial Policy, Action Plan for an innovative and competitive, COM(2012)417 final

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Potential threats posed by emerging technologies Technologies provide tremendous societal and economic opportunities, but when used 221 with wrong intensions they may also be a source of safety risks. The FESTOS project identified three categories of potential threats. The first is a disruption of certain technological applications for malicious purposes; the second is the increased availability of technologies that once were confined to the military only; third, concerns the surprising malicious uses of technologies developed for completely different “civil” purposes. Based on the potential of a technology for malicious use, the following ten technologies have been identified:  Smart mobile phone mash-ups  Internet of Things (IoT)  Cloud Computing  New gene transfer technologies  Advanced artificial intelligence  Synthetic biology  Cyborg insects  Energetic nanomaterials  Radio-frequency identification (RFID)  Autonomous & semi-autonomous mini robots For the time scale 2015 – 2020, the following potential "wild card technologies" (severe threats but low likelihood of abuse) have been identified: Swarm robotics, brain implants, water catalysing explosive reactions, future fuels, self-replicating nano-assemblers, medical nano-robots, ultra-dense data storage, meta-materials with negative light refraction index, and synthetic biology. In order to prevent the abuse of emerging technologies, the authors refer to:  Education curricula including programs aiming to raise the awareness of potential threats.  Measures invented by the knowledge producer.  Measures developed by media to limit the publication of sensitive knowledge.

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Illustration of technological developments: physical security The overarching change in physical security is a shift from analog to IP (Internet Protocol) systems and networks. This movement has major implications for equipment 222 purchases, processes, staffing, and training. A number of trends are noted bellow:  The replacement of analog by IP is taking place rapidly. One of the advantages is that data traffic can be given priority over other types of data traffic (essential in the event of disasters).  Surveillance video becomes life-like. New high-definition (HD) video surveillance cameras provide high resolutions making it easier to identify people with high levels of confidence, read license plates, use video analytics etc.  Video analytics software becomes more mature. After identifying an event of interest, the software can automatically alert a human operator, and perhaps send the video clip along with the alert.  Building control go IP. Organizations will integrate their IP-based video surveillance and building control systems, to improve incident detection and assessment. An attempt to use an access card, for example, can trigger the video surveillance camera to capture the event, and either send an alarm or archive the video for forensics purposes.

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See: http://www.festos.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10&Itemid=9; The FESTOS project (Foresight of Evolving Security Threats posed by Emerging Technologies) identified and assessed evolving security threats caused by the abuse or inadequate use of emerging technologies and emerging areas of applied research (towards 2035).

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Collen, S. (2007), Director of Business Development for Cisco’s Physical Security Business Unit (http://www.cisco.com/)

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Radio interoperability grows into communications interoperability. People who are out of radio range need to be able to join talk groups with traditional phones, IP phones, mobile phones, or laptops. And they also want to share video, floor plans, database access, and each other’s desktops. The trend is towards comprehensive communications interoperability. The demise of standalone systems. More integrated solutions are demanded. Vendors are establishing partnerships to ensure that their solutions interoperate.

Challenges lie outside the EU 223 224 The work of FOCUS , aims to elaborate a number of foresight generated scenarios in the form of alternative tracks of security research topics, approaches and structures. The challenges dealt with lie outside the territory of the Union. FOCUS has identified so far seven cross-thematic key drivers for future challenges to the EU.  Globalization and international system change  Changing modes of governance  Changing values and norms  Economic and social change  Technological change  Extent of common threat assessment  Consistency and coherence of future security

Mobility and transport “Transport or transportation covers the movement of people, animals and goods from one location to another. Modes of transport include air, rail, road, water, cable, pipeline, and 225 space. The field can be divided into infrastructure, vehicles, and operations.” Headlines Mobility and transport are fundamental to both economy (transport sector accounts for about 7% of GDP and for over 5% of total employment in Europe) and society. We all have become more mobile, and as a result of changing consumer patterns, transport of goods and services has also become global in nature. This all has been facilitated by low fuel prices and improved infrastructures. More specific trends and developments Recently, under the auspice of the European Foresight Platform, a European policy workshop on Smart Mobility 2050 took place in Brussels. The European Commission has put forward a new strategy to address the main challenges faced aiming to create a so-called Single European Transport Area. The Commission proposes 40 concrete initiatives aiming to build a competitive transport system that will increase mobility, to remove major barriers in key areas and fuel growth and employment. At the same time, the initiatives aim to dramatically reduce Europe's dependence on imported oil and cut carbon emissions in transport by 60% by 2050.

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Technologies and services Technological innovation will be a major contributor to solving transport challenges. ‘Soft infrastructures’ are, in this respect, quite important. Examples include Intelligent Transport Systems for road (ITS); and traffic management systems for rail (ERTMS) and aviation (the single European sky SESAR), backed by Galileo can optimize the use of the network and improve safety. At the same time, innovative vehicle technology can lower

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Foresight Security Scenarios: Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles, project funded under FP7, http://www.focusproject.eu/

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European Foresight Platform (2012), “Foresight Security Scenarios: Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles”, EFP brief No. 214

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport

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emissions. ITS applications for road transport include electronic tolling, dynamic traffic management with variable speed limits, parking guidance and reservation, navigation devices and driver-assistance systems like electronic stability control and lane departure warning systems. In the following section below, the main elements of the scenarios developed by the Focus Groups (three groups gathering the views of transport experts and discussing the drivers of transport activity in the fields of the economy and society, technology and the environment, 226 an initiative taken by the and infrastructure and logistics) on the ‘Future of Transport,’ European Commission, are presented.

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Intra-urban transport As urban congestion will be increasing, transport would suffer from the so-called ‘last mile’ problem (namely, the difficulty in reproducing the advantages for short distances that the consolidation of large volumes or transport can achieve over long distances). Cities will not be able to accommodate much larger volumes of private cars as infrastructures will be limited. Radical ways of dealing with congestion will be required. Development of ICT would provide universal and easy access to information and widespread electronic ticketing. Around 2030, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles might become a viable alternative if and when the right distribution infrastructure is in place.

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Interurban freight transport The logistics sector would be creating more flexible, but complex networks using advanced logistics concepts such as hybrid supply chains, collaborative networks (wherein different producers are cooperating in transport in order to achieve economies of scale); e-logistics (both business-to-consumers and business-to-business) and return logistics. These more complex logistics products would be necessary to deal with increased individualized market demand and quicker passing of new fashions. This would have an effect on light vehicle growth figures (vans) as well. For ships, energy intensities would be reduced up to 30% by 2050 through more efficient engine and propulsion systems and ship design. The emergence of a European network of rail freight corridors through cross-border cooperation and increased competition in the railway markets would facilitate enlarging the share of rail in freight transport. A hub and spoke system wherein major production/consumption areas are linked to each other in Europe would help. Trucks, ships and aircrafts would increasingly rely on alternative fuels whose production would start to affect the price of oil after the introduction of the second generation biofuels. The shift away from fossil fuels would be encouraged through stringent environmental regulation, most likely reflecting the external costs of transportation, and concerns about the security of supply of fossil fuels.

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Interurban passenger transport Long distance passenger travel would increase as a consequence of globalization, tourism, regional integration and migration. The latter will increase labour and business related mobility, and the connected social mobility (families, friends). Large intercontinental airports (hubs) might reach high congestion levels due to further globalization. Smaller regional airports may present spare capacities and become more integrated. Demands for higher comfort and a suitable handling of luggage would also increase. High speed rail would be able to move even faster than today and could provide a significant share of journeys for distances up to 700-800 km.

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http://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/strategies/2009_future_of_transport_en.htm

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7. IDENTIFIED TRANSITION AREAS Introduction In this chapter we will present the identified transition areas. The steps followed in order to identify and define these areas, were the following: 1) First drafting on the basis of the insights of the study team and the identified areas in the German BMBF foresight study. 227

The following transformative breakthroughs have been identified in that study:  Energy transition (energy generation, storage, distribution, understanding and modelling human behaviour, service innovation).  Bio-resource management (agricultural technologies, industrial biotechnology, understanding and modelling human behaviour).  Sustainable patterns of production and consumption (production technologies and concepts, systems thinking, understanding and modelling human behaviour, services innovation, green housing etc.).  Human-technology continuum (lab-on-a-chip/bio-electronics, performance enhancers, brain modelling, brain-computer interface, secure communication, trust, assistive systems etc.).  Infrastructure transition (transport technologies, smart grids, service innovation, next generation networks).  Living spaces (sustainable construction materials, green/smart housing, service innovation, human behaviour, agricultural technologies). 2) Further refinement on the naming and definition of the transition areas during the round of interviews with the national and international experts. 3) Detailed discussion of the content of each transition area during the one-day foresight camp held in Brussels in November 2012. The six groups of societal challenges and the developments under the key starting fields (as presented in the previous chapters) offered a starting point for these experts to organize their thoughts about linking science, technology and innovation solutions to societal challenges. The purpose of this exercise, as was clearly communicated to the experts, has been to identify promising links between potential solutions and societal challenges. The purpose is not to be exhaustive but to provide a solid starting point for the next phases of the project cycle. 4) Discussion and further validation during the meetings with the steering committee of the VRWI. For each key transition area, several nodes have been identified. The identification of the nodes is based on the literature review, the expert consultation and the foresight camp. The presented discussion in the nodes is not exhaustive, but covers the main elements identified during the literature review, the expert consultation and the foresight camp. The goal of this section is to provide a starting point for discussions and refinements in subsequent phases of the foresight process by multidisciplinary experts. The content comprised in the 5 key transition areas is mainly based upon experts’ views, added by some literature insights and web searches. Therefore, only limited references are included in this chapter.

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Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) and Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering (IAO) (2009), “New Future Fields”

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Transition areas The objective of this VRWI forward looking exercise is to identify and define new transition areas that can make a real difference in addressing society’s needs in Flanders and abroad. This requires a good and broad understanding of societal challenges and potential solutions stemming from Science, Technology and Innovation, including the social sciences and humanities (SSH). Alongside a ‘problem-driven’ approach (i.e. looking for answers to existing societal challenges), however, an ‘opportunity-driven’ approach should also be considered. There are plenty of opportunities that can be addressed separately and not necessarily from a problem-driven logic; i.e. the starting point does not necessarily need to be an identified problem, but could equally well be an identified opportunity. The identified links between societal challenges and possible solutions are grouped into areas, which are called ‘transition areas’ (or transformative priorities, based on the terminology introduced by Warnke and the foresight process carried out by the German BMBF) as they encompass a strong transition potential on the longer run. Transition areas aim to arrive at broad solutions stemming from different disciplines and areas. They reflect a systemic perspective, and clearly illustrate the need to collaborate across disciplines, sectors, organizations and even policy domains without neglecting the need for maintaining and further developing domain/discipline specific excellence. During exploratory interviews with leading experts, the transition areas and their content have been extensively discussed. Together with the foresight camp meeting held in Brussels in November 2012, this has led to the identification of the following five key transition areas (see also figure below):

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T1. Society 2.0

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T2. Life enhancement o

T2.1. Food and agricultural part

o

T2.2. Health part

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T3. Smart resources management

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T4. Urban planning and mobility dynamics

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T5. New energy demand and delivery

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Source: IDEA Consult

It is important to note that the identified transition areas are not described exhaustively. Key nodes within these transition areas (see below) have been identified and are broadly discussed in order to provide a good basis for further refinement during the subsequent phases of the VRWI foresight process in which societal, business and STI experts will be involved extensively.

T1: Society 2.0 A transversal perspective A different/changing model of society can be considered as a kind of condition for a successful transition in the other four areas. Addressing the societal challenges within these transition areas often requires a societal change as well. A good example is changing 228 patterns of consumption, which requires a broad behavioural change by society at large. In this respect the transition area Society 2.0 is horizontal/transversal in nature that touches upon the other transition areas. On the other hand, there are also important societal aspects within society such as poverty, social deconstruction, etc. that deserve a ‘stand-alone’ consideration and will require innovative policy models provided by the Social Sciences and the Humanities. Good examples are pluralism, multiculturalism and diversity, and their effects on education, or social isolation and loneliness, which can be related to the increasing individualisation of society. The relevant topics are numerous. Societal transition is thus a ‘means’ towards, but also an ‘end’.

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European Commission (2009), “Sustainable consumption and production - a challenge for us all”, EMAS Newsletter Issue 2

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Scope and relevancy In line with the optimistic view in this preparatory study (inventory of trends and developments), much evidence has been collected that the society of the future will (have to) go along with different (not necessarily better) norms, values and attitudes towards daily life (e.g. work-life balance, family structures, employment characteristics), but also regarding 229 resource utilization, consumption, ageing, globalisation, poverty, the role of technology , privacy issues etc. Some societal challenges such as migration and diversity/pluralism for 230 Attitudinal changes example, are issues of concern, but also provide great opportunities. seem important as human behaviour drives the future of our planet, and thus the future of next generations. State-of-the-Art interdisciplinary research from the Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH) directed to these societal challenges will be very helpful and will provide new, innovative models to tackle societal issues. At the same time society cannot be easily changed; society is abstract and large, and there are many vested interests. Change is also not one of the main characteristics of human nature; there is a natural tendency to avoid it. A new or changed society, however, does not need to be in conflict with the old societal paradigm; it will only be different. As change occurs, people take up the new, making the old increasingly dysfunctional and obsolete. This is a long term process, which could be considered a transition in itself (therefore Society 2.0 is also presented as a separate transversal transition area depicted in the diamond in the figure above). A new or changed society could have the following characteristics or ‘operating systems’

      

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:

A different type of economic system – a mutual support system that is resource based and not only money based. A different energy system that provides unlimited power on demand, is portable, accessible everywhere, inexhaustible, non-polluting and available to everyone. A different transportation system based on the new energy that everyone can use. A different health system that creates excellent health rather than eradicating disease. A different agricultural system that works with nature, producing healthier, tastier foods at lower cost. A different educational system that promotes the student’s innate abilities and passions. A different communication system that everyone can access.

The new ‘operating systems’ of the changed society, Society 2.0, interact with all the other transition areas presented in this chapter, but go even beyond them in different ‘stand-alone’ nodes, as discussed below. Societal change is driven by, among other things, climate and ecological changes and the need to anticipate and react to globalisation, increasing interconnectedness (through e.g. social networks), new geopolitical relationships (power balance, new upcoming powers), and demographic and social changes (which may lead to pension affordability problems, social isolation/cohesion, solidarity between generations etc.), as discussed above. Visions of a changing society should also address ways to safeguard current level of welfare in Europe 232 and the current standard of living. A changing society may be a result, in view of all the pressures and calls for changes, and social sciences and humanities may help to better understand certain processes, but also provide solutions to major societal challenges and social phenomena.

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Cost Office (2011), “A new society in the making: A COST interdisciplinary strategic initiative in the wake of the digital revolution”, COST foresight 2030

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Van der Erf, R., De Beer, J.A.A. & Van der Gaag,, N.L. (2011), “Europese regio’s groeien vooral door migratie. In: Demos, 27 (3), 2-3

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World Harmony Forum; a network is made up of individuals, groups and organisations who are working towards establishing an exciting, positive, parallel new society that lives and works in harmony with nature.

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European Commission (2011), “Global Europe 2050”, DG Research and Innovation, Social Sciences and Humanities

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Discussion of promising ‘nodes’ We present below the most important ‘stand-alone’ nodes that have been identified under Society 2.0, and those that are, in most cases, only indirectly related to the subsequent transition areas such as life enhancement and smart resources management. Relevant research disciplines, without aiming to be exhaustive, include sociology, economy, labour and organisation psychology, philosophy. The nodes presented below should be read in conjunction with the inventory of societal challenges presented in chapter 4. An overall overview of the nodes is presented in the figure below. Economy, workforce, and forms of innovation

 The knowledge economy has long been considered as the foundation of a strong and developing society. In recent years, however, partly because of the economic crisis and new developing eastern powers, Western economic strength in the form of fundamental and research based knowledge has start to show the first cracks. New paths towards economic development should therefore be analysed and investigated by exploring new economic growth models and taking full advantage of available expertise and knowledge (e.g. with respect to creative subjects like design, architecture, design etc.). Hence, economic research in providing important solutions in this respect.

 The Western economic model is changing and new labour patterns are developing. In view of these changes it seems that the competitive advantages of strategically developed production processes are being re-evaluated and re-established together with the development of the knowledge economy. It is in this line of thinking where new production models (cf. factory of the future) become important.

 Labour patterns are changing and the required labour capacity is changing with it (hence the importance of labour and organisational research). Not only will there be a need for different job profiles, because of the new growing importance of the reestablishment of production, for example, but also because local workers will be forced to consider new and less attractive professions, because of the increasing labour migrations and the growing competition with new and often cheaper knowledge import. Therefor there is an urgent need for the creation of new respect for all forms of labour, and this especially towards the workers on the lower steps of the labour ladder. At the same time, sufficient jobs and local economic value added need to be created in order to solve societal challenges and problems.

 In order to create new economic growth stimulated by innovation, innovation itself needs to be broadened to other areas of the economy. More attention could be paid to social and public sector innovation, and even innovation in the services sectors. Creativity could be combined and integrated with classical innovation processes more than before. Social innovation will be a new and important way to extend and strengthen civil society. Social innovation refers to new strategies, concepts, ideas and organizations that meet social needs of all kinds from working conditions and education to community development and health. Social dynamics

 The age pyramid is changing rapidly (see also chapter on societal challenges). This means that the dependency rate of social groups is changing as well. A smaller base of younger generations will need to provide for larger groups of elderly people. This, in combination with higher life expectancies, calls for new social structures to avoid a major group of the elderly generation becoming financially and socially isolated, and the pressure on the younger generation becoming too weighty. Solutions include the development of new, flexible labour models for the elderly to re-integrate in the labour market and help support the social system. Sociology and psychology may contribute to

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a better understanding of these social processes and help to identify ways to influence them.

 Individualisation is a major trend within todays’ society. The integration of individualisation in the educational and labour system is seen as an opportunity to increase the quality of educational pathways for school children and students and the subsequent career development for graduates (research and pedagogical sciences is thus important). This means that attention should be paid to the development of individual talents, the identification individual needs and the adaptation of existing structures and systems. Moreover, new ways of information aggregation and knowledge sharing as a new social leverage have to be examined. Here as well, different research disciplines could contribute to finding solutions - examples being sociology and psychology.

 On the other hand, individualisation as seen from another, social perspective, can lead to social isolation. Evolutions and trends described earlier, such as individualisation of the health system, the rapidly developing digital network, and changing social values, can all lead to the exclusion of those who cannot fall back on a strong social safety net. A balance must therefore be sought between increasing individualization and social isolation on one hand and the means to counter this development on the other hand. This could include the revaluation of the traditional safety nets such as ‘the family’ and associational life, or new models of living together and new community structures. Several technological solutions are also worth consideration here as well (see below).

 Poverty is a problem in all social structures. A major driver of poverty is described as the poverty trap. A poverty trap is the self-reinforcing mechanism which causes poverty to persist. It very often persists from generation to generation, and therefore it is necessary to take steps to break the cycle. Strategies to do so include giving all poor social groups access to affordable education; by anticipating the need for physical and psychological healthcare; by offering individual guidance out of personal conflict situations and family structures; by giving access to credit and capital markets through venture capitalist who can found start-up companies; and by financially unburdening the poor by re-evaluating tax models.

 Terrorism has been a major threat to all world citizens, and one which is difficult to tackle because terrorist attacks very often present themselves in a highly unexpected and anonymous manner. The digital revolution has even increased the possibilities for terrorists to refine the way they organize their attacks. It is expected that they will for attempt cyber-attacks to disrupt critical information networks and, even more likely, to cause physical damage to information systems. There will be a growing need for new security strategies to reduce conflicts and terrorism. Prevention, for example, can often require direct political intervention or even the threat or use of military force as a last resort. At the same time, psychological aspects play a role here as well, in the sense that feeling either insecure/secure can be influenced by different factors. Ethical issues

 Climate change and changing ecology are important drivers shaping the future of

2

society (and its behaviour) at large. Environmental pollution and the emission of CO from the use of fossil fuels constitute a threat to health, the environment and sustainable economic growth. It is expected to be difficult, if not impossible, stretch the limits of resources which enable progress and development. Common awareness and a general sense of urgency need to be created.

 In societies where values and structures are changing, there can be a great need for new role models. Role-models are people who serve as an example and whose behaviour is emulated by others, especially by younger generations. People identify themselves with role models because of their impact on society and try to transform according to the model that is provided. At present, role models are mainly people who act in economic and political areas. The Western role model is powerful, because of his professional position, his social standard and his wealth. This type of classical role-

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model will no longer suffice if we are going to encourage the younger generation to deal with current societal challenges. New, more socially active role-models will have to be put in a bright and attractive looking spotlight. Philosophy and research on morality could play an important role in all of these points.

 Transition is a key word in the creation of sustainable societies undergoing change. The role of transition is to inspire, encourage, connect, support and train communities as they self-organise around transition models and creating initiatives that rebuild 2 resilience, reduce CO emissions and create a social structure that is tolerant and vertical and horizontal socially integrated. There are many aspects that need to be understood in order to make transition possible. Governance

 Governance should involve non-governmental organizations, civil-society groups, social-based organizations, multinational corporations, other business bodies, and interest groups that have been equally, if not more effective than governmental bodies at reframing issues and mobilizing publics through societal transition processes.

 The likely emergence of China and India and others as new major global players will st

transform the geopolitical landscape. The 21 century may be seen as the time when the power of Asia, led by China and India, grow. The consequences of this are likely to be noticeable in different areas such as economic transition, migration, social construction etc. Governments will need to adapt their strategies and structures.

 As a result of migration and increasing pluralism in society, new governance models need to be developed, whereby citizen involvement (participatory decision making) is becoming more important. Development of new governance models could benefit from research in economic sciences, management sciences, sociology and psychology.

T2: Life enhancement: introduction Scope and relevancy “Life enhancement” is a transition area that focuses on the interrelation between food production and consumption on the one hand, and health care on the other. Life enhancement consists of two parts: 1) Food production and consumption: this area involves the availability and quality of (safe) food in a world of changing power relationships, and the prevention of several ‘modern’ diseases such as diabetes. Food consumption and healthy diets will be an inherent part of a more ‘holistic’ food and health care system. Early education and communication (e.g. through social media) will be essential within the framework of the previous transversal transition area Society 2.0, just as a better understanding of how food consumption relates to health and wellbeing. When prevention fails, remediation will be targeted to the specific needs of patients. 2) Health care: a major challenge in the coming years is to control healthcare expenses 233 Most while at the same time maintaining and even increasing health care levels. likely, society will be facing a higher ‘disease burden’ (e.g. infectious diseases, disability, depression, hearing loss, alcohol abuse disorder, pandemics etc.). In particular, an increase in chronic health problems is expected, relating to conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory problems, and some types of cancers. Without answers to these chronic diseases, heavy losses in terms of life and economic production are expected. This, combined with a shortage of healthcare workers, poses enormous challenges. Understanding and influencing norms, values, attitudes and behaviour of citizens, as well as new models of labour allocation and

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DNV (2012), Technology Outlook 2020 Healthcare, developed by DNV's Research and Innovation unit

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division (all areas where SSH research could strongly contribute), will be essential (see Society 2.0). In what follows we present and discuss these two subareas in more detail.

T2.1: Life enhancement: food and agriculture related Challenges and potentially ‘serving’ starting fields In the box below we provide an overview of the societal challenges addressed under this transition area, and starting fields that may help to address these challenges. There is not merely one interrelation between the two, as different science, technology and innovation areas (starting fields) may contribute to solving different societal challenges. Nevertheless, the identified links between specific societal challenges and potential solutions stemming from the starting fields are presented in the figure below. Groups of societal challenges involved and starting fields Under group 1: “Health demographic change and well-being”  Population: growing, ageing and with higher life expectancy, lower number of new-borns  Social changes (ageing population, less work active population)  New ‘modern’ diseases (physical but also psychological)  Financing pressure (related to health, pensions, social security) Under group 2: “Inclusive and changing societies”  Social deconstruction  Safety and security concerns Under group 3: “Natural resources (agriculture, food, water management, forestry, biodiversity)”  Food availability and security  Changing food patterns  Maintain biodiversity  Water availability When we look at the different starting fields, as discussed in greater detail above, major contributions are expected from the social sciences and humanities disciplines (like education, communication, sociology, psychology), advance materials, ICT, nanotechnology, biotechnology, health, water, food and agriculture, environment, cognitive neurosciences and security.

Model of identified links and interconnections We present bellow a visual overview of the identified “food and agriculture” related nodes and their interaction. Each link (visualised by a line) refers to a potential interaction between a societal challenge and a potential solution stemming from the starting fields. Further concretisation of the links will be established in the subsequent phases of the foresight process. The model is discussed in more detail below.

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Starting fields

Societal challenges

Social Sciences and Humanities Advanced Materials ICT Group 1: Health, demographic change and well-being

Routes to potential solutions

Nanotechnology

Population: ageing & growing Social changes

Biotechnology Upgrading agricultural production

Photonics

New ‘modern’ diseases

Advanced manufacturing technologies

Financing pressure

Health

Group 2: Inclusive and changing societies Social deconstruction

Healthy food production

Water Food and agriculture

Safety & security concerns

Environment Group 3: Natural resources Healthy/balanced food consumption

System research

Food availability and security

Energy

Changing food patterns

Cognitive neurosciences

Maintain biodiversity

KI Business Services

Water availability

Security Mobility &Transport

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Discussion of promising ‘nodes’ In what follows we present an overview and discussion of the identified promising nodes within the transition area “Life enhancement”. Node 1: Upgrading agricultural production

 As tensions around food availability seem to be increasing as a result of, among other things, climate change, ageing and growing population, geo-political power shifts, and dietary changes (shifts towards more/less meat consumption) it becomes necessary to look at the efficiency of current agricultural production systems in order to secure future food availability. This is also important for Flanders, as it is not self-sustainable when it comes to food availability. The development of new mixed production systems and the optimisation of genetic diversity to breed improved crops, trees, animals and fish will make a major contribution to this. At the same time, better management systems are required. For example, novel plant varieties adapted to a range of stresses will maintain yields, provide greater soil coverage under poor growing conditions and reduce irrigation needs.

 Biotechnology is expected to contribute to the upgrading of agricultural production through market assisted selection, genetic modification (GM), propagation, therapeutics and diagnostics (see also last node). Greater resistance to negative external influences and efficient and effective yields can be strived for. It is expected that the cloning of GM animals to produce meat will become feasible and mature as a technology. “Omics” (genomics, metabolomics) will not only be applied in GM, but also in the upgrade of conventional breeding practices, enabling cross-breeding strategies through ‘markers’, ecological engineering looking into the relationship between species and their environment.

 Real time information provision through smart ICT will become increasingly important in agriculture. One can think of information such as market information prices, weather forecasts, crop and livestock diseases, and general advice - all examples having an effect on efficiency but also effectiveness of agricultural production.

 Nanotechnology applications in agriculture could include sensors and diagnostic devices for better monitoring environmental conditions and plant and animal health, disease and pest control, water and nutrient control, genetic engineering of plants and livestock to improve productivity, and agriculture as a means to produce nanomaterial. Nanotechnology sensors can also help to better monitor quality degradation of food products and as such also to reduce waste in the production and consumption chain and to improve food availability, safety and security.

 Aside from the necessity to secure food supply, food safety “from farm to fork” is also important. Food safety and security should be considered from two perspectives. The first concerns the alleged cross contamination risks, for example in the case of GM or nanotechnology applications in crop design; the second largely concerns the health parameter, where food produced should also be healthy and thus include the necessary ingredients and substances. Safety and security actually play a role in all nodes discussed here, and should be considered as an integral part of the entire food production, distribution and consumption chain.

 Agriculture accounts for 70% of all water utilised by the agricultural, municipal and industrial (including energy) sectors; this is expected to increase as a result of increased pressure on food demand. Agricultural water management will therefore play an important role in future global water availability and security. Food production is actually a way to transport water. Water should be an issue of concern from two perspectives. The first concerns a potential shortage, which puts clear demands on new ways to transport water but also to filter and purify it (see starting field Water). The second refers to too much water as a result of floods and/or heavy rain fall, which puts pressure on spatial planning and design, for example but also on biotechnology, which can help to make crops better resistant to excessive water.

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 Alongside the use of existing or new technologies for sustaining future food availability, new forms of agriculture could also be considered. Agro-ecology is the application of ecological science to the study, design and management of sustainable agro ecosystems. Organic farming is considered one of the possible applications. Agro ecological approaches are expected to spread in the near future, driven by a decline in land and water (as discussed above), increasing energy costs, environmental quality and conservation issues, climate change and large number of farmers untouched by modern agricultural technology. Development and applications can diversify agricultural production and partially shift production locally, thereby reducing transport and potentially negative environmental effects.

 Closely related to climate change is biodiversity control and maintenance. Agriculture and fisheries are directly related to biodiversity and the loss/gain thereof. The environmental effects of increased ‘production’ (more use of soil and water) may be significant. The more space agriculture and fisheries require the less space is available for other purposes (such as biodiversity control, leisure and building).

 The application of new technologies in the food chain brings with it several ethical questions and societal concerns (important for Society 2.0). It is essential that the ethical concerns surrounding this debate are treated with great care. Objective research and communication and early stage education (in primary and secondary schools) are important in this respect. Research in this area should not only focus on the technology, but also take into account the ethical and human factors. Furthermore, the regulatory framework (which should be clear and stable) is important for future innovation but also social acceptability of the use of new technologies in the food chain. Node 2: Healthy food production

 More than a billion people remain chronically malnourished, are prone to disease and have reduced life expectancy. This is partly due to lack of calories but also because some staple foods in developing countries, including rice and cassava, are poor sources 234 Some challenges – particularly food security and of some vitamins and minerals. climate change – will have their greatest impact in less developed countries. As animal protein consumption increases, improved breeding programs and understanding of animal nutrition will allow more efficient production and minimize the amount of grazing land, water or feed required. Advances in plant breeding will allow plants to photosynthesize more efficiently, so capturing more carbon dioxide. As well as the positive effect on climate change mitigation, yields and nutritional qualities would increase and less pressure put on land.

 Biotechnology applications make it possible to increase the health properties of food (functional foods/nutraceuticals). Molecular diagnostics may help to establish a link between food and disease patterns and characteristics. A particular area of interest (see also above) is cancer in relation to specific diets and how to handle this. Functional foods may be regarded by society as a solution to unhealthy eating habits (and thus weaken any effort to introduce healthier diets), which is an undesired effect. And there is the issue of social acceptability and the safety concerns associated with the use of new enabling technologies in food production. Healthy food production provides an answer to social changes (social disparities) and new modern diseases (e.g. obesity).

 Healthy food should, however, also be associated with convenience and consumption (as a result of changing food patterns) pleasure (even as a result of classical production processes), and not only with innovative production and the application of new technologies. Flanders is quite strong on food quality and safety (sensorial aspects, large diversity of food products). We should look closely at healthy diets, where communication to the consumer is also important. Ageing is also an issue, but the discussion should be directed the younger (education, awareness creation). Segmentation of consumers is also very important. Nutritional food for specific target

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http://www.plantetp.org/images/stories/stories/documents_pdf/brochure_web.pdf

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groups should also be taken into account (e.g. the elderly, younger people, women/men).

 Nanotechnology can be applied in food processing and functional foods quality control, in order to safeguard food security. Examples are processing technology and functional foods. Nanotechnology applications may also enhance the taste and the bioavailability of certain ingredients, reduce the content of elements such as sugar and salt, and slow down microbial activity. However, the uptake in foodstuff is expected to be limited as there are many concerns related to both human safety and the environment (see also above).

 The improvement of plants and the development of other functional food ingredients (through biotechnological applications) could help to produce high quality food, thus helping to achieve a healthy, sustainable diet for the whole population, while more efficient food processing and distribution can help to make high quality products available at an affordable price. In addition to the long-term effects of diet on health, threats to human health may also arise from zoonosis (animal-borne diseases) and the bio-economy provides the tools to minimize this hazard. Areas where the bio-economy will have an impact include:

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Developing new foods that contribute to improved nutrition and health. In particular, foods that promote healthy ageing or ‘adding life to years’ will be of major importance.

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Improving animal resistance to disease via breeding, optimized farm management and feeding systems; using epidemiology as a basis for the development of prophylactic vaccination programs; and to allow the better prediction and handling of disease outbreaks.

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Reliable and extensive data gathering and traceability in the livestock sector can help to anticipate the need for early intervention and thus reduce the overall burden of diseases and infections.

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Tailoring plants to produce specific pharmaceuticals can be an efficient way of making high quality and valuable materials and products such as vaccines for both human and animal healthcare.

Node 3: Healthy/balanced food consumption

 The level of understanding of how food influences health and wellbeing (e.g. through cognitive neuroscience progression and insights) is important in order to address several of the modern diseases. A more fine-tuned analysis of disease is needed, in order to make the link to food consumption and dietary patterns. Important topics are the functioning of the human metabolism, the impact of food on mental development, cognitive degeneration, personalized nutrition, biomarkers, welfare diseases etc. If these diseases do not need to be addressed by the health care system, financial pressure on health care expenses could be reduced.

 Diseases like obesity and diabetes (modern diseases) increasingly occur despite efforts to encourage people to eat healthier and to exercise. Influencing people’s behaviour by encouraging them to adopt different diet and exercise habits is important. In this respect, people’s norms and values (habits and attitudes) regarding food and food consumption need to be further investigated; communication through e.g. social media, psychology and education (important SSH disciplines) generally have a large role to play next to food nutritional disciplines.

 Trends in consumption already reflect a divergence in diet between the rich and the poor, leading to a so-called health gap (as a result of social changes). As diet-related diseases (e.g. obesity, type-2 diabetes, and colon cancer) occur and even increase, rich consumers adapt their diets as shown by an increase in novel foods (e.g. vegetarian, organic, special nutritional requirements). Poor people have fewer possibilities to adapt as a result of a lower purchasing power thus creating societal tensions. Different options could be considered to make healthy food, and mainly healthy diets, more attractive and

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affordable. SSH research (e.g. sociology and psychology) can provide answers regarding to deal with the growing disparity between poor and rich and the social the resultant consequences.

 Identification of specific consumer segments may help to tailor particular food products to specific needs and characteristics. For example, the elderly are expected to have different food needs to youngsters. More ‘targeted’ education and communication are also needed in order to inform citizens about healthy food patterns (industry, retail, health organizations, media, have a role to play here). The behavioural and communication sciences (SSH) have an important role to play here.

T2.2: Life enhancement: health related Challenges and potentially ‘serving’ starting fields In the box below we provide an overview of the societal challenges addressed under the health related part of the “Life enhancement” transition area. Groups of societal challenges involved and starting fields Under group 1: “Health demographic change and well-being”  Population: growing, ageing and with higher life expectancy, lower number of new-borns  Social changes (ageing population, less work active population)  New ‘modern’ diseases (physical but also psychological)  Financing pressure (related to health, pensions, social security) Under group 2: “Inclusive and changing societies”  Safety and security concerns  Human-technology interaction Under group 3: “Natural resources (agriculture, food, water management, forestry, biodiversity)”  Changing food patterns  Maintain biodiversity Under group 6: “Global economy and global labour force”  Global labour market and ‘fight’ for brains: interrelationships, shortage of highly skilled, training & education, mobility When we look at the different starting fields, as discussed in detail above, major contributions are expected from the social sciences and humanities’ disciplines (mainly education, communication, sociology and psychology), advanced materials, ICT, nanotechnology, biotechnology, photonics, health, water, food and agriculture, environment, system research, cognitive neurosciences, security, and mobility and transport. Model of identified links and interconnections Bellow we present a visual overview of the “health” related nodes identified and their interaction. Each link (visualised by a line) refers to a potential interaction between a societal challenge and a potential solution stemming from the starting fields. The model is discussed in more detail below.

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Starting fields

Societal challenges

Social Sciences and Humanities Routes to potential solutions

Advanced Materials

Group 1: Health, demographic change and well-being

ICT Population: ageing & growing

Nanotechnology

Social changes New ‘modern’ diseases

Remote and patient centred care

Biotechnology

Financing pressure

Photonics

Group 2: Inclusive and changing societies

Advanced manufacturing technologies

Emergence of preventive care

Safety & security concerns

Health

Human – technology interaction & cooperation

Water

Group 3: Natural resources

Diagnostics and new therapeutics

Food and agriculture Environment

Changing food patterns

System research Maintain biodiversity

Group 6: Global economy and global labour force

Human – technology cooperation

Energy Cognitive neurosciences KI Business Services

Global labour market & war on talent

Security Mobility &Transport

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Node 4: Emergence of preventive care

 Prevention of diseases is becoming increasingly important given our rapidly ageing society, increasing health care costs and associated budgetary constraints (financing pressure). Life style (including food consumption patterns, exercising etc.) will, among other factors, be an important prevention factor. Biodiversity, and the quality of the environment, is also important, in the sense that the quality of our (living) environment (including spatial planning, see also the transition area urban planning and mobility dynamics) may help to prevent all kinds of diseases. Education (all levels) and communication on the basis of the study and analysis of human behaviour will be essential when aiming to change life styles (see transition area Society 2.0).

 DNA sequencing of a patient’s genome makes it possible to customize the management of diseases. It is expected that by 2020 genome sequencing technology will be developed to provide diagnosis to conditions that were previously not available (conditions that patients have not yet developed!). On the basis of individual DNA profiles (personalised disease models) it will be feasible to identify risks (e.g. obesity, diabetes) and to design tailored preventive diets and behaviour. Pharmacogenetics will provide insight into how individuals respond to drugs in order to eliminate undesired reactions. Cancer genomics will facilitate early detection of cancer through identification 235 of DNA mutations. Important to note is the increasing integration and even integration between key technologies like nanotechnology, biotechnology and ICT (including data handling).

 In this context, the upcoming field of epigenetics is also important. Epigenetics 236 is the study of heritable changes in gene expression or cellular phenotype caused by mechanisms other than changes in the underlying DNA sequence. It refers to functionally relevant modifications to the genome that do not involve a change in the nucleotide sequence. Unlike behaviour or stress, diet is one of the more easily studied environmental factors in epigenetic change. Understanding and even being able to influence these changes provide enormous opportunities.

 The emergence of interactomics is expected to provide numerous possibilities. Interactomics is a discipline at the intersection of bioinformatics and biology that deals 237 The network of with the interactions between proteins and other molecules in a cell. such interactions is called the interactome. The interactome represents the most important interactions pertinent to the normal physiological functions of a cell or organisms; in the end this helps to better understand these interactions. Interactomics require enormous data processing capacities (ICT).

 Research in nanomedicine will allow for a better understanding of the functioning of the human body at molecular and nanometric level and it will thus provide the possibility to intervene better at pre-symptomatic, acute or chronic stage of illnesses. Nanomedicine exploits the improved and often novel physical, chemical and biological properties of materials at the nanometer scale. Nanomedicine has the potential to enable early detection and prevention, and to essentially improve diagnosis, treatment and follow-up 238 of diseases.

 Nanotechnologies are being applied in a variety of ways to provide earlier and more accurate diagnosis, improved treatment and better support for some of the medical and care challenges posed by the ageing population. Nanoscale drug delivery may have an important role to play in delivering therapeutic agents across the blood-brain barrier. Nanotechnology can offer solutions for hearing and balancing problems, eyesight

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Connect-EU Nanobio + Nanomed, Institute for Bioengineering of Catalonia (IBEC) (2011), “Strategic Research Agenda (2011)”

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Bird A (May 2007). "Perceptions of epigenetics". Nature 447 (7143): 396–8.

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Kiemer, L; G Cesareni (2007). "Comparative interactomics: comparing apples and pears?". Trends in Biotechnology 25 (10): 448–454.

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European Technology Platform ‘Nanomedicine’

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problems. There are also opportunities for nanotechnology with regard to nanofunctionalized textiles, remote biosensing and healthcare monitoring, and implantable medical devices.

 Early diagnosis (through new diagnostics, point of care testing, etc.) by means of optical solutions can detect serious illnesses at a very early stage and avoid costly 239 Photonic technologies treatment as early detection can prevent further outbreaks. may provide a vital addition to the tools that a doctor can use for the diagnosis of many severe illnesses and may also provide effective new treatments leading to early stage cures, thereby avoiding costly long-term treatments. The application of photonics in 240 healthcare has been estimated to offer costs reductions of as much as 20%.

 Also non-invasive or minimally invasive treatments, such as therapeutic laser systems, will help to improve patients’ health and mobility. New technologies are expected to revolutionise healthcare and methods of predicting, preventing and treating illness e.g. ultra-sensitive ‘lab on a chip’ biosensors. Photonic solutions and applications therefore have an important role to play and can have a beneficial effect on patient health, on the healthcare system and on society.

 Medical imaging will move away from visualization of anatomical footprints to the visualization of the disease processes themselves. Diffuse optical imaging will emerge as a technique for non-invasive in vivo imaging of biological tissue at the molecular level. New contrast agents will add molecular information to anatomical images provided by MRI scans. The combination will provide detailed visualization of the physiology within an anatomical reference, which makes the early identification (and monitoring) of diseases possible. Optic technologies like photonics will play an important role. Node 5: Remote and patient centred care

 Point of care testing allows patient diagnoses in the physician’s office, an ambulance, the home, the field, or in the hospital. Traditional laboratory tests and technologies such as ultrasound, nucleic acid identification (for pathogen testing) and nuclear magnetic resonance (for cancer cell identification) will become portable. The results are timely and allow fast treatment of the patient. Enabling clinicians to make decisions at the point of care may enhance health care delivery. The potential shift from curative medicine to predictive (as discussed above) could rely on the development of portable diagnostic and monitoring devices for point of care testing. As such, point of care testing, goes along with a shift from the lab to the home, and thus the environment of the patient.

 Traceability systems (ICT based) will be able to monitor and document the activities along the patient’s pathway. As the information per patient is expected to multiply, decision support systems and software will help healthcare staff to gain access to good practices and as such to provide a ‘second opinion’. The patient will also have a much bigger responsibility in preventing diseases; his/her power will also increase towards doctors in general, as he will be better informed and advised by ‘peers’ (see also below).

 Online social networking is gaining popularity and is becoming an important channel for information gathering and sharing. Patients are sharing experiences (peer-to-peer) and are becoming better informed, about what works and what not, and about the potential side effects of particular medicines. There is a two-way communication made possible between patients and healthcare professionals; the power position of patients will increase, partly as a result of more and better information. Through remote access, patients will be able to consult their own healthcare information (e.g. access lab results and share information with whom they choose) and as such also to contribute to their own health records. The dynamic flow of information, at the same time, puts pressure on privacy protection rules and procedures, although younger generations do not seem to be that worried about their privacy.

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Second Strategic research Agenda in Photonics, Lighting the way ahead; Photonics 21

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HLEG, Report on Photonics

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 The introduction of virtual reality environments, for training and education purposes, may also benefit the healthcare sector. Developments in web technology will provide strong tools for online information retrieval. Through remote access, patients will be able to consult their own healthcare information (e.g. access lab results and share information with whom they choose) and as such also to contribute to their own health records. These developments are also referred to as ‘clinical cloud’.

 The need (and shortage) for qualified health care workers (see also societal challenges) is expected to increase and to further stimulate the development of remote health care. As a result, health care systems, and in particular work division structures (along the health care chain), will also have to be rethought. New ways of work organisation could/should be considered in order to reduce the labour needs.

 Telemedicine will enable patients to receive healthcare at home and thus enjoy their home environment while reducing health care costs. Wireless biomedical sensors (like hemodynamic sensors surgically positioned to measure blood pressure) and ultrawideband radar technology (for monitoring vital body functions) will enable monitoring of patients in their ‘natural’ environment. Smartphone applications will provide new ways of communicating between patients and healthcare providers and will also be used for monitoring purposes (smart phone monitoring). In general, human (smart) device interactions, will offer several opportunities for diagnosis, treatment and follow-up.

 The ageing population is leading to an increase in the burden of neurodegenerative and other age-related diseases and in their associated economic costs, making research 241 toward treatment development ever more urgent. This may lead to several changes in the future of clinical research and healthcare delivery:



Telemedicine may replace or augment some face-to-face clinical encounters with internet-based communication.



Increased use of electronic medical records (EMRs) could create opportunities for data collected during routine clinical care to feed more easily into research. EMRs could also enable more efficient and cost-effective research by facilitating data sharing, patient recruitment and follow-up.



Technological advances should also allow more continuous monitoring of disease signs and symptoms by mobile or portable devices, which could also benefit clinical research.



The decreasing cost of genome sequencing is leading to increased use of genomic data for profiling patients and stratifying subjects for clinical research.

Node 6: Diagnostics and new therapeutics

 New diagnostic technologies are strongly upcoming, under pressure from financial constraints and health care management. New molecular diagnostics make it a challenge for pathologists and clinical laboratory managers to identify which new lab tests have the greatest clinical value, and will also be adequately reimbursed by payers. It seems that new diagnostic technologies have transformed infectious disease testing in the past. Rapid molecular tests make it possible for medical labs to deliver an accurate answer in a few hours (e.g. linked to modern diseases). Similar developments are expected for cancer testing. Two examples of how new technologies have revolutionized testing for specific types of cancers are lymphoma/leukaemia and breast cancer. A ‘no cure, no pay’ mentality is likely to occur, where the lack of success and cure will not be compensated anymore by funding authorities.

 New therapeutics, and in particular therapeutic vaccines, for various diseases will continue to be developed. Not only is the development important here, but also the application and the setup of new business models. An important link has to be made with ICT and the explosive demand for high speed processing capabilities. All the

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http://www.ninds.nih.gov/about_ninds/plans/strategic_plan/blue_sky_panel.htm

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collected data from diagnostic devices have to be analysed and processed. Computer power is essential here.

 The application of new technologies (as described in the previous nodes above) raises a number of ethical questions and concerns. It is essential that the ethical concerns surrounding this debate are treated with great care. Objective research and communication and early stage education (in primary and secondary schools) are important. Research in this area should not only focus on the technology, but also take into account the ethical and human aspects and also focus on ‘human-technology’ interaction processes. Furthermore, the regulatory framework (which should be clear and stable) is important for future innovation. All these topics are important for Society 2.0. Node 7: Human –technology cooperation

 A final promising node under the health part of ‘Life Enhancement’ is the interaction between smart devices and humans, whereby new combinations of human and technology are viewed in all their complexity. Humans shall increasingly interact with machines and smart devices for greater comfort, better quality of life and life expectancy. 242 is important in order to achieve sustainable Human – technology cooperation breakthroughs in major innovation areas like ambient intelligence, robotics, contextsensitive services and neuroprosthetics.

 On the one hand we see the interaction with medical devices/implants (e.g. prosthetics of knees, hips or devices that are being commanded by the human brains, like robotic arms or legs, or even hearing implants that build-up energy from the temperature in the ear). Nano-biotechnology integration increasingly aims to connect devices to humans (e.g. Parkinson and deep brain stimulation).

 On the other hand improved/increased interactions with all kinds of smart devices are expected (and are largely reality today), like smart phones, pc’s, tablets, Google class, smart and connected cars, (social) robotics for home assistance (adaptive and assistive environments) etc. Furthermore, human – machine interactions shall increasingly find applications in among others traffic (airplanes, cars), education (new technology enabled learning) and of course daily life. Physical avatars, telepresence and teleaction are potential applications, or even the internet of ‘things’ (digital territory).

 Design and creativity also play an important role here, in the sense that the user-friendly design of particular devices will make the interaction easier and more effective.

 Early education and communication are essential in this respect, especially for the elderly who are not accustomed to being surrounded by smart devices. In these so-called interaction dynamics, 1) communication and trust between humans and machines and 243 On the latter, it is expected that in the future, 2) decision dynamics are important. autonomous machine agents will possess expanded decision making capacity, and a deeper understanding of decision-making styles will be needed to prepare both our intelligent machines and their human operators for effective operation in human robot teams. Moving towards ‘ergonomics of the mind’ where there is a clear understanding of 244 which instructions machines need from human beings is important for this interaction.

 In terms of societal challenges, human-machine interaction is related to social changes, such as part of the ageing population staying longer at home; new modern diseases (like depression); financial pressures; and ways to deal with the increasing interaction between humans and technology. Changes to social relationships and humanity’s image are regarded not as consequences of technical innovation alone, but are like legal and ethical aspects dimensions of more complex change. These challenges

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Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) and Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering (IAO) (2009), “New Future Fields”

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IEEE (2012), Scannig the issue, “Interaction Dynamics: The Interface of Humans and Smart Machines”,

244

Ibid. 242

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can be addressed by developments in SSH disciplines like sociology, anthropology, psychology, education and communication.

T3: Smart resources management Scope and relevancy “Smart resources management” is a transition area that addresses ways to deal with the problems and issues associated with the scarcity and availability of several resources. The scarcity of materials and minerals is related to the limited availability of these resources, while the scarcity of energy, nutrients and water is rather related to power distribution across nations, political decisions, and technological progress. These resources have an impact on our daily lives and are critical to our economy. Smart resources management also involves the issue of recycling and substitution. Recycling of resources reduces the need to exhaust new resources. Recycling asks for a change in mentality as products need to be designed from the outset (e.g. eco-design, cradle-to-cradle) in such a way that it is easy to recycle them at the end of their life. People also need to change their mentality in selecting waste and taking responsibility for bringing waste to dedicated collection places. This transition area can have a major impact on the global economy and global politics given the increasing importance and emphasis on smart resources management. Challenges and potentially ‘serving’ starting fields In the box below we provide an overview of the societal challenges addressed under this transition area, and starting fields that may help to address these challenges. Groups of societal challenges involved and starting fields Under group 1: “Health demographic change and well-being”  Population: ageing & growing Under group 2: “Inclusive and changing societies”  Safety and security concerns Under group 3: “Natural resources”  Food availability and security  Water availability  Maintain biodiversity  Changing food patterns Under group 4: “Energy transition”  Greener and societally acceptable forms of energy  External dependency  Energy – Water nexus Under group 5: “Physical space, mobility and time”  Urbanization  New ways of organizing space  Green buildings  Mobility  Accessibility & interconnectivity Under group 6: “Global economy and global labour force”  Global economy: new emerging markets, new trade patterns and relationships  Global politics: new power order and relationships, new international politics and policies, rising conflicts

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When we look at the different starting fields, as discussed in detail above, major contributions are expected from Social Sciences and Humanities, Advanced Materials, ICT, Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Photonics, Advanced manufacturing technologies, water, Food and agriculture, Environment, Systems research, Energy, KI Business Services, Mobility & Transport.

Model of identified links and interconnections Below, we present a visual overview of the identified nodes and their interaction within the transition area of “Smart Resources”. Each link (visualised by a line) refers to a potential interaction between a societal challenge and a potential solution stemming from the starting fields. The model is discussed in more detail below.

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Societal challenges Starting fields Group 1: Health, demographic change and well-being Population: ageing & growing

Routes to potential solutions

Social Sciences and Humanities

Advanced Materials

Group 2: Inclusive and changing societies Safety & security concerns

ICT

Group 3: Natural resources (i.a. food, water & biodiversity)

Nanotechnology

Food availability and security Water availability

Scarcity of energy, nutrients and water

Biotechnology Photonics

Maintain biodiversity

Advanced manufacturing technologies

Changing food patterns

Health

Group 4: Energy transition Greener & societally acceptable forms of energy

Recycling and substitution

Water

Energy – Water nexus

Food and agriculture External dependency

Environment Group 5: Physical space, mobility and time Urbanization New ways of organizing space Green buildings

Scarcity of materials and minerals

System research Energy Cognitive neurosciences

Mobility

KI Business Services Accessibility & interconnectivity

Security Group 6: Global economy and global labour force Mobility &Transport Global economy Global politics

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Discussion of promising ‘nodes’ Below we present an overview and discussion of the promising nodes identified within this transition area. Node 1: Scarcity of energy, nutrients and water

 The availability of energy, nutrients and water is situated at a different level compared to the availability of materials and minerals. It is impossible to produce additional materials and minerals, while it is possible to produce energy. The availability of energy, nutrients and water is not related to a limitation in its presence, but rather due to the power balance across countries. For example, about 70% of the planet is covered by water while the sun does not cease to shine. There is, however, a need to find ways to capture these resources in a more efficient way and to make better use of them.

 Safe, secure and sustainable water and sanitation services are of major importance for our future. Water is important for all forms of life, but is also a key resource for agriculture and industry. Irrigated agriculture has played a major role in enhancing economic growth and reducing poverty by ensuring food supply, providing food security, protection from flood and drought, and expanded opportunities for employment. Water is important for industry as it can function as a solvent for a wide variety of chemical substances and facilitates industrial cooling and transportation.

 Populations in cities are changing rapidly (albeit with clear ‘waves’) leading to changing water demand. Flexible water provision grids and components are thus required. In addition to water distribution, the efficient capturing of water becomes increasingly important to avoid flooding of streets and to allow recycling. The consumption of water in cities in an important area where social science and humanities can contribute.

 Increasing globalization and wealth are leading to an increase in water demand which cannot often be satisfied locally/regionally. This can lead to regional/international conflicts as demographic change and migration requires flexible and sustainable water supply and waste water management. In the longer run, strong competition between ‘users’ is expected (i.e. domestic, industry, agriculture and environment) having negative effects on prices, as water might become a scarcity (as is the case in several parts of the world).

 The availability of energy is discussed in more depth in the transition area New Energy Demand and Delivery, while the availability of nutrients is discussed in the transition area Life Enhancement. Node 2: Recycling and substitution

 Manufacturers recognize that the lack of minerals and materials is becoming a serious issue and are therefore increasingly looking for alternative methods that allow to replace or to reduce the use of these minerals and materials. It will be important to investigate and develop new sources of these minerals and materials; to improve the efficiency of their use in devices; to identify substitute minerals and materials; or to develop the infrastructure to recycle the minerals and materials once devices reach the end of their useful life.

 There is also a need for recycling the rare earth metals at end-of-life. As Europe is a massive importer of materials, recycling is a business that entails a lot of potential. Moreover, recycling of materials is often more efficient than mining new materials. It is estimated that electronic goods contain 40 to 50 times the amount of gold and precious metals than ores mined from the ground. Increasingly, life cycle analyses are being applied in the design of new products in order to allow an easy recycling at the end. In addition, reverse logistics is viewed as an area that offers great potential to reduce costs, increase revenues, and generate additional profitability for firms and their supply chains.

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 Advanced materials play a key role in addressing raw material availability issues. Europe is very limited with regard to natural resources. Therefore, recycling can play an important role. Currently, Europe is a net importer of raw materials but if Europe succeeds in recycling its consumables in an intelligent way, it can become an important owner of raw materials. Moreover, it is often easier to get “clean” raw materials from recycling processes compared to mining. If Europe further develops its strength in recycling it may become an important owner of raw materials, hereby reducing its current dependence on distributors of raw materials.

 Urban mining entails the process of reclaiming compounds and elements from products, buildings and waste. Urban mining involves the potential to regain rare materials as it allows the efficient collection, recycling and reuse of valuable raw materials. This is especially important for Europe as it does not own rare materials mines. Hence, an efficient recycling of certain rare materials can lead to a better competitive position as this may imply that Europe will no longer be a net importer.

 There are also tremendous opportunities with regard to waste management. 245 Recycling part of the waste that is generated can have a huge impact on the environment. For example, collecting food waste separately and recycling it ensures that it no longer ends up in landfill but, instead, can be composted and turned into fertilizer which is good for the environment. Phosphorus is increasingly being recycled using wastewater-treatment techniques in order to recover the phosphorus in mineral form to use it as a fertiliser in the agriculture industry. It is also important to avoid unnecessary waste and to recycle unavoidable waste in useful and efficient ways. A specific opportunity, for example, is the development of more diverse sectors, such as algae biofuels, which provides opportunities for evaluating by-products as alternative sources 246 Another of animal and fish feeds, in order to make less demand on food crops. opportunity is to use unavoidable waste streams from agriculture, forestry or the domestic sector, to produce biogas or other value-added biomaterials. In industrial biotechnology, waste is increasingly used as primary source to produce biofuels. For example, crop residue has been identified as a waste stream that could be tapped for conversion into cellulosic biofuels. Environmental technologies can also be applied to address the challenges with regard to waste management.

 Recycling requires that a system exists that allows organised waste collection. Several countries, including Belgium, have set up a system to collect waste and have created awareness among its citizens to participate in this system. There is currently a focus on recycling mass flows while smaller streams of waste are often neglected due to the balance between efforts versus benefits. An improvement in separation techniques might further enhance the efficiency of recycling techniques. At the same time, SSH can help to increase the awareness to consume less and to avoid waste.

 An important aspect in discussing recycling is the fact that recycling is often more expensive than buying. This implies that incentives for the market to recycle are not always easy to define. Hence, there is an important role for legislation and norms to stimulate the aspects of durability and eco-efficiency.

 There is a huge role for material scientists from universities and companies to search for substitutes for particular advanced materials. For example, gold and platinum are increasingly replaced by other materials. Some car manufacturers are currently introducing older systems in their cars in order to reduce their dependency on scarce materials. There is a trend to look for more standard materials rather than the exotic. The development of substitution materials is a complex but promising approach. Sustainable, alternative materials can replace depleted and costly existing ones.

 Another option to be explored is to reduce the need for a specific material. This can be done by replacing the material or by redesigning the product so that the need for the material is reduced. A reduction of material often implies an increase in the amount of 245

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European Commission (2012), “Preparing a Waste Prevention Programme”, Guidance Document, DG Environment http://www.plantetp.org/images/stories/stories/documents_pdf/brochure_web.pdf

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energy that is needed. This trade-off is important to take into consideration. Hence, an insight in the flows, availability, and recycling of minerals and materials in industrial ecosystems, called mining the technosphere, is essential.

 In designing products, more attention is being devoted towards Cradle-to-Cradle principles, renewability, and material efficiency. There is also increasing attention towards modularity of products and systems as this often allows for a more efficient recycling of a product at the end of its life. Node 3: Scarcity of materials and minerals

 The availability of materials and minerals is a function of five factors: geologic; technical; environmental and social; political; and economic. Geologic refers to the existence and prevalence of the material and/or mineral, while technical includes the extraction and processing. Environmental and social comprises the environmental and social impact of producing the materials and minerals. Political refers to the possibility of governments to influence availability through particular policies and actions, while economic contains affordable production. Recently, the European Commission has recognized that raw materials provide vital inputs for Europe’s economy as they are particularly crucial for the development of modern environmentally friendly technologies.

 As the world moves toward greater use of high-tech products, the availability of rare earth metals becomes an issue. For example, a single large wind turbine typically contains 600 kilograms of rare earth metals. Dysprosium and neodymium both have exceptional magnetic properties that make them especially well-suited to use in highly efficient, lightweight motors and batteries. However, there is no way to make new rare earth metals once the sources are exhausted.

 As materials and minerals become less available, it is essential to enhance the efficiency of employing these materials and minerals. An increase in efficiency may result in a decrease in use and consumption of materials and minerals. A more efficient use of materials will become important in the future, leaving an important role for social sciences and humanities research to enhance our awareness. Efficiency and collaboration throughout the supply chain are seen as essential to respond to the risk of materials and minerals shortage. Enhancing the efficiency of materials and minerals often includes a trade-off between strength versus weight. There is an increasing demand for light-weight and strong materials. Material efficiency can also be obtained by designing and redesigning particular products and processes. For example, additive manufacturing or 3D-printing allows creating objects by laying down successive layers of materials instead of cutting and drilling. In addition, the integration of nanotechnology in textiles and electronics allows for a smaller energy consumption, lighter weight and increased durability, reliability and comfort.

 Materials and minerals can also influence the energy efficiency. For example, a passive house contains well-insulated material, triple-glazed windows, solar panels, and a ventilation system. A lot of scarce metals are needed to make photovoltaic panels, rare earth magnets for wind generators, fuel cells and high-capacity batteries for hybrid and electric vehicles. The further development of several renewable energy sources is hence dependent upon the availability of several materials and minerals. But most industrialized nations depend on foreign sources for those metals. Currently, China has a powerful position as they mine a large amount of the world’s rare earth metals. This may result in a change of geopolitical power and the existence of monopolies. Moreover, as they tend to use different business models as compared to the traditional business models established in Europe and the US, Europe might have to adapt to new ways of doing business.

 There is an increasing dependency on materials and minerals to create products that support our way of life, our health, and the global economy. Advances in material sciences have allowed making products lighter, stronger and more durable. The demand for goods and products manufactured from mineral materials is increasing at a rapid rate. There is hence a need to identify materials and minerals that will be important for

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existing and new technologies and products (tracing and tracking), and to assess the environmental consequences of mining and using these resources.

 Advanced manufacturing technologies can help to reduce the need for particular minerals and materials. Additive manufacturing or 3D-printing, for example, allows creating objects by laying down successive layers of materials instead of removing material through cutting and drilling.

T4: Urban planning and mobility dynamics Scope and relevancy “Urban planning and mobility dynamics” is a transition area that focuses on the way our urban areas and cities will be designed and organised in the future, thereby taking into account wellbeing, accessibility, mobility, safety and social balance. In a broader sense, urban areas will move towards more environmental friendly buildings, modularity and multipurpose space, etc. Big challenges are faced here as Flanders is an urban region. Urban areas such as Flanders are expected to be confronted with what we could call social deconstruction due to large differences in income levels of inhabitants, and this in the realm of demographic change, globalisation and increasing migration (see Society 2.0). Affordable and accessible housing will be a challenge as well, just as accessibility of and transport of goods (food and feed) into the cities. Urban areas will have to be designed differently, while time will most likely be organised more flexibly. It is interesting to note that this transition area seems to include a lot of insights stemming from SSH disciplines and related areas. Challenges and potentially ‘serving’ starting fields In the box below we provide an overview of the societal challenges addressed under this transition area, and starting fields that may help to address these challenges. Groups of societal challenges involved and starting fields Under group 1: “Health, demographic change and well-being”  Social changes Under group 2: “Inclusive and changing societies”  Social deconstruction  Safety and security concerns of citizens Under group 5: “Physical space, mobility and time”  Urbanization  New ways of organizing space  Green buildings  Mobility  Time management and time planning  Accessibility and interconnectivity Under group 6: “Global economy and global labour force”  Global politics: new power order and relationships, new international politics and policies, rising conflicts  Global labour market and ‘fight’ for brains: interrelationships, shortage of highly skilled, training & education, mobility

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When we look at the different starting fields, as discussed in detail above, major contributions are expected from Social Science and Humanities, Health, Water, Environment, Energy, Security, and Mobility and Transport.

Model of identified links and interconnections Below, we present a visual overview of the identified nodes and their interaction in the transition area “urban planning and mobility dynamics”. Each link (visualised by a line) refers to a potential interaction between a societal challenge and a potential solution stemming from the starting fields. Further concretisation of the links will be done in the subsequent phases of the foresight process. The model is discussed in more detail below.

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Societal challenges

Group 1: Health, demographic change and well-being

Starting fields

Social Sciences and Humanities

Routes to potential solutions

Advanced Materials Social changes

ICT Group 2: Inclusive and changing societies

Nanotechnology

Social deconstruction

Biotechnology Inclusive cities

Safety & security concerns

Photonics Advanced manufacturing technologies

Group 5: Physical space, mobility and time Sustainable logistics

Health

Urbanization

Water New ways of organizing space

Food and agriculture

Green buildings Mobility

Spatial urban cities

Time management & time planning

System research

Accessibility & interconnectivity

Group 6: Global economy and global labour force

Environment

Energy Moving to, from and in city

Cognitive neurosciences

Global politics

KI Business Services

Global labour market & war on talent

Security Mobility &Transport

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Discussion of promising ‘nodes’ Below we present an overview and discussion of the promising nodes identified within the transition area “urban planning and mobility dynamics”. The discussion focuses on the most promising development by linking societal challenges to specific (potential) developments under each of the starting fields, as mentioned earlier, as a basis for refinement in the subsequent phases of the foresight process. Node 1: Inclusive cities

 A growing number of cities and communities are becoming ‘age friendly cities’ in order to create inclusive and accessible urban environments to benefit their ageing populations. Age friendly cities are concerned with the active involvement of elderly people in community life by ensuring that all barriers to independent living and active involvement are removed. For example, the accessibility of parks and buildings, trains and subways is an important issue to allow the elderly to live comfortably in a city for which mobility is key to maintaining an active life.

 Environmental design can play an important role in order to adjust to the urgent needs of different social groups. Housing elderly people close to schools and parks can improve the mental well-being of the elderly generation and can also create awareness within the group of younger generations towards the needs of the elderly. A well-thought out design can make a city pleasant and enjoyable, particularly when including an intelligent use of the scarce green and open spaces. This can have a positive effect on psychological health and mental well-being. In addition, green roofs can help improve biodiversity and the quality of water/run-off. This can lead to more resilient cities.

 The way space is used in cities can help to reduce criminality and hence augment the people’s sense of security. In designing and redesigning districts, it is therefore important to consider the spatial aspect and the potential dynamics that will be associated with it. A thorough refreshment of particular areas can create a whole different dynamic.

 As a result of several ICT developments, information will become ‘real time’ and adjusted to our needs. In several places in the city, it could become possible to get access to real time information about particular social and cultural activities taking place. ICT developments also allow for smart cities which aim to optimise urban systems, by monitoring and managing energy, water, traffic, passengers, discharge, emission and effluent flows from urban activities.

 Living in highly concentrated cities will mean that research has to be carried out on new models of sustainable urban development, waste management, and recycling innovations.

 A different combination of hybrid functions within areas or buildings can create new dynamics with improvements on quality of living and well-being. For example the integration of work and living functions within one building or area can improve the quality of the infrastructure of the whole district and improve safety because of increased social control. Node 2: Spatial urban cities

 The emergence of urban cities regards the spatial aspect of living. In every city, there are districts that prosper and flourish, while there are other districts which are in decline. The latter districts often experience an increase in criminality, a growth in poverty, and a rise in vacancy of houses and shops. The architecture within particular districts contributes to the rise or fall of these districts in the way that smart architectural planning can create open spaces and smart housing in dense and tense districts.

 The construction of parks, design of buildings, accessibility by train and subways, all have a major influence on criminality rates in certain areas within cities. Crime prevention through environmental design is a concept that uses the physical environment as protection against attack. It attempts to create a defensive environment from a physical

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and the psychological point of view. The goal is to reduce the opportunities for a crime to occur by employing physical design features that discourage crime, while at the same time encouraging legitimate use of the environment.

 Space, territory and landscape (political, social, urban, natural etc.) as the overlap between physical space and virtual space is increasingly discussed and virtual landscapes of communication are redefining our sense of space and time. The human habitat and its landscapes are being redefined in dramatic ways, and new physical and symbolic geographies are needed to explore it. Hence, social science and humanities research has a major role to play.

 The modern city will be based upon and conducive to greater levels of interdependence and cooperation. A number of economic processes capitalize on the production of social relations, urban lifestyles, and networking that are made possible by urban life itself. The traditional ‘industrial’ city organized around stable forms of work and housing, essentially managing national problems (whether in terms of employment, housing, citizenship, etc.) is slowly being replaced by a complex, open-ended urban space, the boundaries of which are uncertain and often stretched far beyond the nationstate.

 In order to create open and accessible cities on a social and organizational level, it is interesting to look into the possibilities of modular building. These are flexible building blocks to meet the goals of a smart city in supporting a sustainable high-quality lifestyle for citizens.

 The city is where people from across the world come to seek work, knowledge, wealth, and a home. It is also the place where inequality, poverty and crime are visible in concentrated forms. The reshuffling of urban space and of the identities that inhabit it is still underway, and the categories, concepts, and paradigms at our disposal. Migrants, generally young and mainly living in urban areas, will further intensify Europe’s ties with neighbouring regions, by creating cultural and economic links with their country of origin. Node 3: Moving to, from and in city

 The growth of urban areas across Europe is a major challenge for urban transport as it brings about a greater need for individual transport modes, thereby generating congestion and environmental problems. As most freight and passenger transport starts or stops in urban areas, urban congestion is also expected to negatively affect interurban travel. At the same time the organization of collective modes of transport runs into land availability and public acceptability problems.

 Transport is an important means to get to work, to school, to friends and family. Every year more cars enter the roads, leading to huge traffic jams, especially in large cities. There are many ways in which urban spaces can benefit from rejecting “car culture” and reconstructing the grid, from adding bike lanes, to creating green spaces, to turning streets into people-friendly social spaces. A different use of individual transport within cities can contribute to the control of dense traffic in cities. Bikes, motorcycles and new transport modes can replace cars and buses in cities.

 The increasing amount of cars and freight transport on the road contributes to global warming and other environmental problems. A possible solution is to discourage the use of cars for all transportation. A car is virtually a global status symbol. A change of mentality can be a major solution. Another solution is to look at alternatives such as home working (see topic of ‘time’ above). Little attention is devoted to whether it makes sense that all employees leave at the same hour to work.

 Time may obtain a new notion; it may be organized more flexibly with public services (like schools) and companies operating at different moments in time so that congestion can be avoided. Free time might also get a new meaning as it can be organized more flexibly - partly virtual and partly real.

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Node 4: Sustainable logistics

 Freight transport is an important cause of urban congestion. To avoid an overload of freight transport, new smart combinations of water transport, transport by train and by truck offer possibilities towards the future.

 Aside from a different approach towards transportation modes, the use of roads can be re-evaluated, in the way that driving directions can change depending on the amount of incoming and outgoing traffic. Other options are intelligent transportation systems for traffic signal control, intelligent traffic lights, etc. The hours in between those which freight transport and passenger transport is allowed offers promising prospects.

 Besides the high impact on urban and environmental traffic, logistics have an impact on the cities and their surroundings because of the enormous weight they put on climate and environment. Moving to a less energy-intensive mode of transport such as water transport is not always an option. But as new technologies are becoming available, logistics companies are quickly incorporating them to reduce the supply chain’s carbon footprint and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

 Towards the future, cities will become increasingly self-supporting. Methods such as urban farming, the creation of own energy delivery and local production are increasingly integrated in urban infrastructure. This may imply that there will be less unemployment, increasing social control and less freight transport moving in and out the urban environment.

T5: New energy demand and delivery Scope and relevancy “New energy demand and delivery” is a transition area that has a huge impact on everyday life. People consume energy in almost all aspects of their life. Industry and agriculture are also heavily dependent upon energy. As energy has been relatively cheap in the past but is becoming increasingly expensive, a new attitude towards energy consumption starts to emerge. This includes rearranging our lifestyles, both individually and collectively, to reduce the energy required for a particular service. Moreover, significant challenges arise for the management of energy demand and supply. The mix between traditional sources of energy and renewable sources requires adjustments in the infrastructure and an improved efficiency in power generation and distribution. The capability to effectively and economically capture, store and use energy when needed, is an important issue that has become more prevalent due to the use of renewable energy and progress in the development and use of batteries. Adjusting the energy system takes time; therefore it is essential to develop a vision on the way forward. Challenges and potentially ‘serving’ starting fields In the box below we provide an overview of the societal challenges addressed under this transition area, and starting fields that may help to address these challenges.

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Groups of societal challenges involved and starting fields Under group 1: “Health demographic change and well-being”  Population: ageing & growing  Financing pressure Under group 2: “Inclusive and changing societies”  Safety and security concerns  Human-technology interaction Under group 3: “Natural resources (agriculture, food, water management, forestry, biodiversity)”  Food – Energy nexus  Water availability, scarcity and cost structure  Maintain biodiversity Under group 4: “Energy transition”  Changes in energy demand and delivery  Greener and societally acceptable forms of energy  External dependency Under group 5: “Physical space, mobility and time”  Urbanization  Green buildings  Mobility  Time management & time planning  Accessibility & interconnectivity Under group 6: “Global economy and global labour force”  Global politics: new power order and relationships, new international politics and policies, rising conflicts When we look at the different starting fields, as discussed in detail above, major contributions are expected from the Social Sciences and Humanities, Advanced Materials, ICT, Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Photonics, Advanced manufacturing technologies, Environment, Systems Research, KI Business Services, Security and Mobility and Transport.

Model of identified links and interconnections Below, we present a visual overview of the identified nodes and their interaction in the transition field “new energy and delivery”. Each link (visualised by a line) refers to a potential interaction between a societal challenge and a potential solution stemming from the starting fields. The model is discussed in more detail below.

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Societal challenges

Starting fields

Group 1: Health, demographic change and well-being

Social Sciences and Humanities

Population: ageing & growing Routes to potential solutions

Financing pressure

Advanced Materials ICT

Group 2: Inclusive and changing societies Nanotechnology Safety and security concerns

Biotechnology

Human – technology interaction & cooperation Rationalisation and efficiency of energy consumption

Group 3: Natural resources

Photonics Advanced manufacturing technologies

Food – Energy nexus Water availability

Health

Maintain biodiversity Managing energy demand and supply

Group 4: Energy transition

Water

Food and agriculture

Changes in energy demand & delivery Greener & societally acceptable forms of energy

Environment

System research

External dependency

Diversified sources of energy

Energy Group 5: Physical space, mobility and time

Cognitive neurosciences

Urbanization

KI Business Services

Green buildings Mobility

Security

Time management & time planning

Mobility &Transport Accessibility & interconnectivity

Group 6: Global economy and global labour force Global politics

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Discussion of promising ‘nodes’ Below we present an overview and discussion of the promising nodes identified within the transition area “new energy demand and delivery”. Node 1: Rationalization and efficiency of energy consumption

 In the past, energy has been cheap, leading to abundance in energy use. For example, a light bulb converts less than 5% of the energy it uses into visible light. The remaining energy is converted into heat. As late as 2009, the European Commission adopted a plan to phase out standard, incandescent light bulbs by 2012. As energy becomes more expensive, there is a tendency to use energy more consciously. Lighting accounts for a significant share of worldwide energy consumption. Huge benefits can be achieved by applying energy-efficient lighting through the use of next-generation photovoltaics and solid-state lighting. Social science and humanities research can play a huge role in creating awareness.

 Smart grids allow improvement of energy efficiency as they can intelligently integrate the actions of all users connected to it (both generators and consumers) in order to efficiently deliver sustainable, economic and secure electricity supplies. It also requires an increased human-technology interaction as people will have to deal with more intelligent devices.

 Other ways to enhance the efficiency in energy consumption, alongside smart grids, are the development of intercontinental grids and off-grid solutions. The opportunities for off-grid solar are rapidly increasing due to some technological innovations e.g. a new trend in the off-grid solar market is solar powered products designed specifically with cell phone charging in mind. Off-grid solutions also offer one solution to the increasing demand for local energy. Photovoltaic off-grid systems are an interesting option for rural electrification in developing countries, where they are crucial in providing energy for light, 247 drinking water, refrigeration and communication.

 Consumers can influence their own consumption patterns through using smart meters, smart grids and smart technologies. This involves an upgrading of the current networks. Distribution networks will need to embrace active network management technologies to efficiently integrate distributed generation, including residential micro generation, on a large scale. For example, substantial offshore and improved onshore transmission infrastructure will be required in the near term to facilitate the development of wind power across Europe.

 Industry also faces significant challenges to reduce its energy consumption. Several companies do not monitor their energy use of their own facilities. However, energy use can be reduced significantly by scheduling the production intelligently, by using more efficient equipment (e.g. variable-frequency drives and power-control devices) or through design of improvements (e.g. in the reuse of waste heat).

 Advanced manufacturing processes may become more energy efficient in the future, as companies increasingly strive to integrate sustainable manufacturing techniques into their business practices to reduce costs, to decrease supply-chain risks, and to enhance product appeal to some customers. Process monitoring and control for optimising the performance and resource/energy consumption on machine and factory level will become increasingly important. This includes selectively switching off systems and components, using smart sensor networks and energy-efficient scheduling approaches, reducing peaks in energy demand, recovering and reusing electrical energy from decelerating drives or process heat.

 There is a trend to go towards real-time pricing as this allows the consumer to optimize its energy consumption. The cost of producing energy varies significantly throughout the day. In order to address this fluctuation, real-time pricing can be applied. This implies,

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A Strategic Research Agenda for Photovoltaic Solar Energy Technology, 2011

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however, that technology is available that allows measuring hourly consumption and that an appropriate regulatory framework is in place.

 The rationalization and optimization of energy consumption includes huge costs as several costs need to be made upfront. For example, adjustments in energy infrastructure are made upfront before any benefits can be obtained. As the financing of these systems are made at the beginning, this poses huge challenges to the current system (OPEX versus CAPEX). Hence, there is a need for new business models. There is also a social aspect to this, namely who gets the benefits and who pays the bills, as the benefits from an update of the infrastructure is sometimes difficult to measure.

 In order to rationalize and optimize the energy consumption in a city, it is essential to develop a vision toward realizing this energy efficiency. This vision includes options to install the necessary infrastructure, to realize new energy-efficient buildings, to adjust mobility e.g. develop a strategy to enhance the use of electric vehicles in the city. In addition, SSH can contribute to the development of this vision by providing insights with regard to problems/opportunities in rationalizing energy consumption by consumers, necessary steps that consumers should take to reduce their demand, and in educating customers about energy and its rightful usage.

 Several technologies can help to realize better energy efficiency. Nanotechnology for example, can lead to innovations in the efficiency of solar cells and the realization of high efficiency fuel cells. It is also important to look at the system level and not to focus solely on the individual level of energy efficiency. Interactions at a broader level can play an important role in increasing energy efficiency.

Node 2: Managing energy demand and supply

 There is a need for energy demand management in order to bring demand and supply of energy closer to a perceived optimum. Supply can refer to power plants, nuclear plants, solar farms, wind turbines, and any other source of power. Traditional sources of supply like power plants and nuclear plants tend to produce electricity in a more constant way compared to renewable sources like solar farms or wind turbines that show more peaks dependent upon the available of sun or wind. This supply needs to match the demand. The demand of energy is cyclical due to the difference between day and night. There is a need to buffer energy as there are several energy peaks throughout the day. Currently, there is no possibility for durable energy storage, which makes it difficult to obtain an optimized management of demand and supply.

 Supply of energy also implies that there is an infrastructure in place that delivers the energy to houses and companies or an infrastructure that allows getting gasoline and diesel at gas stations. The existing infrastructures are being challenged as there is an increasing supply of renewable energy. For example, many houses have solar panels on their roofs. It is a huge challenge to make sure that the infrastructure can capture the abundance of solar energy generated at specific points during a day. Another challenge in infrastructure for the supply of energy is how to make sure that one can get easy access to hydrogen for fuel cells, electricity to charge a car, etc.

 The supply of renewable energy, like solar and wind energy are generated at a local level which is ideal for the use of smart grids. However, the management of the energy supply network is a huge challenge as both large multinational electricity companies and small renewable energy players are present in the market. There is a need for increased flexibility in this regard. The efficiency in producing this energy still has room for improvement.

 The supply of energy also has a geographic and strategic aspect. Europe is not well endowed with energy sources in contrast to some other continents. The US, for example, has large shale gas reserves; while Russia and China possess a large amount of energy sources. The strategy to deal with this inequality of availability in energy resources will become increasingly important for Europe. It will require a vision on how to integrate a mix of several energy resources, including sources of energy that can be internally generated and validated in order to reduce external dependency.

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 As the demand for local energy is increasing, the importance of batteries is rising. Most electronic devices require more energy due to an increasing amount of functionalities and the need to go wireless. Several types of batteries are being used for large-scale energy storage and to improve grid flexibility and stability. There is also extensive research on advanced materials and advanced batteries to apply them in smart grid and electromobility applications.

 Electricity is being generated using turbines and spools, requiring magnets. These magnets are built using scarce materials, therefore choices will need to be made with regard to which materials to continue to use in the future seen the availability of these scarce materials in the future. These choices will depend upon scientific and social science and humanities insights. Node 3: Diversified sources of energy

 Increasing oil prices plays an important role in the search for new alternative sources of energy. In addition, the political attention towards climate changes, decarbonisation and the environment has further accelerated the search for renewable energy. As Europe is not well endowed with energy sources, the access to alternative sources of energy is of strategic importance.

 There are several advantages and disadvantages in using renewable energy. One of the advantages is that while wind and sun are easily available, solar panels and windmills make heavy use scarce materials. Next generation photovoltaic cells have the potential to reduce global emissions of carbon dioxide. In general, decarbonisation is a major driver for the development of renewable energy. There are also several challenges associated with wind power and solar panels, such as the costs of operating and maintaining offshore wind farms, and providing energy access in rural areas using photovoltaic cells.

 Biofuels is another source of renewable energy that has been subject to debate. First generation biofuels use valuable farmland to produce biofuels, while the second focuses on agricultural residues or waste. While first generation biofuels are in competition with the food supply, the second generation is not. For example, algae can be grown on non-agricultural land, most of them do not require fresh water, and their feedstock potential for biofuel production is high. It is necessary to make conscious choices with regard to the kind of renewable energy one wants to support. Should it be wind energy, solar energy or geothermal energy? The answer depends upon many factors, including insights from science, technology and social science and humanities.

 New products can be created from biomass to replace those based on fossil fuels, while sustainable intensification of agriculture and forestry can protect carbon stocks in soils and forests. Downstream processing which uses bio-catalysis or fermentation to replace chemical processing can save a billion tons or more of CO2 emissions across a wide range of industrial sectors. Partial replacement of petrol and diesel by biofuels can add 248 significantly to this.

 Another source of energy is the use of shale gas. Shale gas has become an increasingly important source of natural gas in the United States since the start of this century, and interest has spread to potential gas shales in the rest of the world. This implies that the interest for oil from the Middle-East is declining, leading to a potentially different dynamic within worldwide politics, as the US concentrates increasingly on shale gas. However, as shale gas produces CO2, it is not considered to be durable and is therefore not a preferred option by the EC.

 An important aspect of renewable energy is energy storage. It is a challenge to find ways to store the massive amount of excess electricity that the sun and wind produce for the “down times” when it is dark and the air is still. Energy storage involves conversion, which often leads to inefficiencies and loss of energy.

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 In order to secure energy supply several sources need to be tapped into, implying a diversified and flexible policy toward these various energy sources. The security of energy supply is an important driver to mix traditional sources of energy with renewable sources. This implies that centralized large-scale systems such as nuclear and gas power plants and decentralised systems based on renewable energy generation will increasingly have to work together. This also involves nuclear energy having a presence, as it provides a significant contribution in energy provision and it is a key source of low carbon electricity generation. If a larger share of energy demand can be covered by local renewable energy sources, the dependence on imported energy and the reliance on foreign oil and gas can be reduced. This also has an influence on the energy price.

 Another aspect is the framework conditions in which energy systems of the future will operate. In Europe, a liberalization of the energy market has taken place over the last decade. This has influenced the price setting, competition, and the position of large multinationals in this industry. Recently, there is a trend towards more regulation of the energy market as this has consequences, such as the introduction of smart grids, and the deployment of diverse energy sources. It is important to formulate a vision with regard to the mix of diversified sources of energy a country aims to use. Germany has formulated its Energiewende, which includes a plan to shift from nuclear and fossil fuels to renewable energy. In formulating a vision, it is essential to find a good balance towards feasibility and keeping all options open.

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ANNEXES

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German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2009), “Roadmap Environmental Technologies 2020, Integrated Water Management”, European Foresight Platform, Foresight Brief No. 161 German Scientific-Technical Association for Environmental Remediation and Brownfield Redevelopement (ITVA) (2011), “Soil Remediation and Land Management – a Win-Win Situation” Gosselin, D., Tindemans, B. (2011), “Toekomstmakers – De kunst van vooruit denken” Government Office for Science UK (2010), “Technology and Innovation Futures: UK Growth Opportunities for the 2020s”, Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre Government Office for Science UK (2010), “Technology and Innovation Futures”, Technology Annex, Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre IEEE (2012), “Interaction Dynamics: The Interface of Humans and Smart Machines (Scanning the issue)” IFPRI (2009), Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation INFU (2011), “Innovation futures in Europe: A foresight exercise on emerging patterns of innovation. Visions, scenarios and implications for policy and practice”, Final Report INNOVA (2011), “Sectoral Innovation Watch – Knowledge Intensive Services Sector”, Consortium Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) (2012), “Emerging Global Trends in Advanced Manufacturing” Joint Institute for Innovation Policy (2012), “Investing in Research and Innovation for Grand Challenges” Kiemer, L, Cesareni, G (2007), "Comparative Interactomics: Comparing Apples and Pears?”, Trends in Biotechnology 25 (10): 448–454 Knowledge Works Foundation and Institute for the Future (2008), “2020 Forecast: Creating the Future of Learning” Kygne, J. (2011), “China Shakes The World. The Rise of a Hungry Nation” League of European Research Universities (2012), “Social Sciences and Humanities: Essential Fields for European Research and in Horizon 2020” Levi (2004), “Challenges for photonics in future systems” Likic et al. (2010), “Systems Biology: The Next Frontier for Bioinformatics”, Advanced Bioinformatics LI, L., (2009), “Research Priorities and Priority-setting in China”, VINNOVA analysis Maxwell, S. (2012) “Four Critical Trends in the Future of Water”, Market Outlook Martin, J. (2011), “The meaning of the 21st century” Mele, C., Pels, J., Polese, F. (2010), “A brief review of systems theory and their managerial applications”, Services Science, pp. 126-135 Michael, J. M. (2004), “Silencing the Enemies of Growth and Why the Future Is Better Than You Think” Norden, Nordic Innovation Centre (2008), “Nordic ICT Foresight: Futures of the ICT environments and applications on the Nordic level”, Summary Report President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) (2011), “Report to the President on Ensuring American Leadership in Advanced Manufacturing” US National Intelligence Council (2000), “Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernment Experts” US National Intelligence Council (2008), “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” US National Intelligence Council (2011), “Mapping the Global Future”, Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project OECD-FAO, Agricultural Outlook; 2008-2017,

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2. Websites consulted Institute/Project

Website

Academy of Finland and Tekes American Chemical Society, USA

http://www.finnsight2015.fi/ http://www.chemicalvision2020.org/pdfs/materials_tech_roa dmap.pdf http://www.acus.org/publication/global-trends-2025transformed-world http://www.battelle.org/media/news/ http://www.cost.eu/ http://www.chemicalvision2020.org/pdfs/matconst.pdf

Atlantic Council Battelle Memorial Institute, USA COST DOE and Materials Technology Institute Inc., USA DOE-Industrail Technologies Program, USA Elsevier Environmental Knowledge for Change European Foresight Monitoring Network European Foresight Platform European Technology Platforms Foresight Institute Advanced Beneficial Nanotechnology, USA Fraunhofer-ISI, Germany Future for all Futurescape Scenarios Horizon 2020 iKNOW Project IMAAC-INFOMAT Databank Industry Canada Innovation Futures (project) Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Spain Irish Council for Science, Technology and Innovation, Ireland Key Technologies for Europe

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/industry/imf/pdfs/concrete_rd map.pdf http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0160791X http://www.grida.no/ http://www.efmn.info/ http://www.foresight-platform.eu/ http://cordis.europa.eu/technology-platforms/ http://www.foresight.org/ http://www.isi.fhg.de/homeisi.htm http://www.futureforall.org/ http://www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/livediscussion-technology-enabled-change-future http://ec.europa.eu/research/horizon2020/index_en.cfm?pg= home&video=none http://wiwe.iknowfutures.eu/ http://w3.cetem.gov.br/imaac/infomat/aspbin/databases.asp?group=34 http://www.ic.gc.ca/epic/site/trm-crt.nsf/en/home http://www.innovation-futures.org/?q=home http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

Strategic Foresight Group

http://www.forfas.ie/icsti/statements/tforesight/overview/tfo reire.htm http://ec.europa.eu/research/foresight/09/article_3748_en.ht m http://www.massinsight.com/scitech_roadmap.asp http://mpcweb.mit.edu/index.php?option=com_content&view=category &layout=blog&id=112&Itemid=2 http://www.ist-mona.org/pdf/MONA_v15_190308.pdf http://www.foresight.gov.uk/ http://www.socialinnovationeurope.eu/ http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/fwl-world-andeu_en.html http://www.strategicforesight.com/

Teknisk Framsyn, Sweden

http://www.tekniskframsyn.nu/

The Millennium Project

http://www.acunu.org

The World Factbook

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/

World Future Society

http://www.wfs.org/

World of Learning

http://futureofed.org/

Mass Insight Corporation, USA MIT-Microphotonics Center, USA MONA Project, France Office for Science and Technology, UK Social Innovation Europe SSH EC Forward Looking

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3. Consulted experts (interviews) Naam

Functie

Organisatie

Kurt Deketelaere

Algemeen directeur

LERU

Erik Schokkaert

Professor/voorzitter Metaforum

Metaforum KUL

Hans Bruyninckx

Directeur HIVA/Promotor Steunpunt Duurzame ontwikkeling

HIVA/KUL

Scientific officer

DG RTD - SSH, Prospective

Geert van Hootegem

Prof. Arbeidssociologie/Voorzitter Adviesraad Flanders Synergy

KUL

Martin Hinoul

Business Developer KUL

LRD KUL

Jo Bury

Algemeen directeur

VIB

Johan Braeckman

Professor Wijsbegeerte en Moraalrecht

Ugent

Paul Timmers

Director of ICT adressing Societal Challenges

DG INFSO, European Commission

Josephus Van Sas

R&D external affairs

Alcatel-Lucent

Guido Verhoeven

Algemeen directeur

SIM

Renilde Craps

Algemeen directeur

Flanders' Drive

Bart Verhaege

Directeur

Verenigde Verenigingen

Peter Degadt

Directiecomité - gedelegeerd bestuurder Zorgnet Vlaanderen

Kristel De Roy

Directeur

Verso

Brigitte Mouligneau

Afdelingshoofd, ViA

Staf VR

Erwin Lamot

Algemeen directeur

Flanders' FOOD

Jacqueline Castenmiller

Professor/senior onderzoek

Wageningen Centre for Food Sciences

Dirk Fransaer

Algemeen directeur

VITO

Johan Van Helleputte

VP Strategische Ontwikkelingen

IMEC

Marc Van Sande

Umicore

Umicore

Jan Geeraert

Algemeen directeur

Flanders' Plastic Vision

Maka De Lameillieure

Algemeen directeur

Flanders' InShape

Mieke Van Gramberen

Algemeen directeur

Flanders' Synergy

Filip Arnaut

Directeur O&O

Puratos Belgium

Koen Valgaeren

Algemeen directeur

VIM

Marcel de Heide

Senior Consultant

TNO

Fabien Pinaut

Marketing Consultant

CEA

Domenico Rossetti di Valdalbero

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4. Consulted Experts (Foresight Camp) Name

Function

Organization

Antoon Soete

Business Manager

3E

Luc Van der Biest

Partner

Leeward Investments

Karel Van Acker

Coördinator

Steunpunt voor Duurzaam Materialenbeheer

Filip Arnaut

Director O&O

Puratos

Bas Sturm

Manager

Innovatiecentrum Vlaams-Brabant

Herman Derache

Director

Sirris

Freek Couttenier

Advisor

Agoria

Walter Ysebaert

Lecturer and Research Policy Advisor

VUB

Pascal Cools

Director

Flanders DC

Bart Verhaeghe

Director

Verenigde Vernigingen

Jan Larosse

Policy Advisor

EWI

Erwin Lamot

Director

Flanders Food

Peter Vercaemst

Unit Manager

VITO

Monika Sormann

Policy Advisor

EWI

Dirk Carrez

Director

Cleverconsult

Jean –Claude Burgelman

Scientific Advisor

EC

Martin Hinoul

Business Developer

LRD KUL

Hilde Willekens

Head of Communications

FlandersBio

Dirk Fransaer

Managing Director

Vito

Johan Van Helleputte

Chief Executive Officer

Imec

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5. Agenda Foresight Camp VRWI FOR FLANDERS2025: Foresight Camp INVENTORY OF SOCIETAL, SCIENTIFIC, TECHNOLOGICAL AND INNOVATION TRENDS TOWARDS 2025

27 November 2012

Raadszaal Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek – Vlaanderen, Egmontstraat 5, 1000 Brussel

9.00u – 9.30u

Reception

9.30u - 9.45u

Introduction VRWI for Flanders2025

9.45u - 10.15u

Inventory of societal, scientific, technological and innovation trends related to Transformative Areas: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

10.15u - 11.15u

Life Enhancement Smart Resources Management Urban Planning and Mobility Dynamics New Energy Demand and Delivery Society 2.0

Discussion and reflection on Transformative Areas in subgroups 1. Group 1: Life Enhancement 2. Group 2: New Energy Demand and Delivery 3. Group 3: Urban Planning and Mobility Dynamics

11.15u - 11.30u

Coffee Break

11.30u - 12.30u

Reflection and presentation of the ideas by subgroups

12.30u - 13.30u

Lunch Break

13.30u - 14.45u

Discussion and reflection on Transformative Areas in subgroups 1. Group 1: Life Enhancement 2. Group 2: Smart Resources Management 3. Group 3: Society 2.0

14.45u - 15.45u

Reflection and presentation of the ideas by subgroups

15.45u - 16.00u

Coffee Break

16.00u – 17.00u

Conclusion and delineation of the Transformative Areas

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6. Steering Committee VRWI Foresight Study 2025 President: Dirk Boogmans (VRWI, president)

Captains of Industry: Wouter De Geest (BASF) Filip Dierckx (Febelfin) Christ’l Joris (ETAP lighting) Geert Palmers (3E) Rudi Pauwels (Biocartis) Yves Servotte (Beneo) Ajit Shetty (Johnson & Johnson) Lard Vanobbergen (Brontec)

Captains of Society: Pascal Cools (Flanders DC) Serge De Gheldere (Futureproofed, klimaatambassadeur Al Gore) Ann Demeulemeester (ACW) Liesbeth Geysels (VIL) Fons Leroy (VDAB) Inge Vervotte (Emmaüs vzw)

Academics: Freddy Mortier (Universiteit Gent) Erik Schokkaert (Metaforum K.U.Leuven)

Trendwatcher: Fons Van Dyck (Think BBDO)

Observers: Peter Desmedt (SVR) Elisabeth Monard (FWO-Vlaanderen) Brigitte Mouligneau (Procesmanager Vlaanderen in Actie) Pierre Verdoodt (Departement EWI)

Scientific support: Luk Bral (SVR) Koenraad Debackere (ECOOM) Joep Konings (STORE)

VRWI staff: Danielle Raspoet (VRWI, secretary) Elie Ratinckx (VRWI, senior researcher)

124