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[email protected].
World Market Update 2012
Section 1 PREFACE This is the 18th edition of the annual World Market Update (WMU) of International Wind Energy Development produced by BTM Consult ApS – A part of Navigant and covers developments in the wind energy sector during 2012. As in previous editions, the report also assesses important changes over the last three years and provides a five year market forecast followed by a prediction of likely market progress for the following five years. An executive summary gives instant access to the report’s main statistics and conclusions, which are eagerly anticipated by the market each year. The special theme (Chapter 7) of the 2012 edition of WMU is a review of Cold Climate Turbines. This year’s edition of the report has received a face lift to meet the ever changing demands of the industry. BTM Consult is an independent renewable energy consultancy founded in 1986 by Birger Tuemand Madsen and Per Krogsgaard and is based in Copenhagen, Denmark. Birger and Per are among the longest serving and most trusted veterans in the wind industry and BTM Consult is recognized as the premiere trending and industry growth forecaster for the international wind industry. With three decades of wind energy experience, BTM Consult is a globally recognized leader in wind market assessments, business development assessments and due diligence investigations. BTM has catered to more than 2,000 clients all over the world, including leading wind turbine manufacturers, component and material suppliers, investors, project developers/operators (utilities and independent power producers), financial institutions and banks, research institutes and universities, and wind energy associations and organizations. The BTM team comprises leading industry professionals, as well as prominent academics, engineers, economists, financial analysts, and policy developers. Consistent with its philosophy, BTM continues to nurture the next generation of wind industry professionals by collaborating with leading research establishments across the globe. In January 2011, BTM was acquired by Navigant and is now a key part of Navigant’s Renewable Energy group. BTM’s market reports are now published under the Navigant Research brand and consulting projects are carried out under the Navigant name, ensuring our clients benefit to full advantage from the expertise of both companies.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS BTM-Consult would like to thank all who have provided input to update our market data. Without their help, it would have been very difficult to collect the necessary information. A special thanks to all the wind turbine OEMs and wind project developers who supplied information and data on their activities in 2012 and to the Chinese Wind Energy Association for its supportive co-operation in compiling data on the world’s largest wind power market. Furthermore, BTM would like to thank the technical experts on the Cold Climate Turbine team led by Tomas Wallenius of VVT for their insight in developing the special theme chapter seven, Cold Climate Turbines. The complete team of authors of the special theme consists of: Tomas Wallenius (VVT, Task 19, Finland); Esa Peltola (VVT, Task 19, Finland); Ville Lehtomäki (VTT, IEC TC8, Finland); Petteri Antikainen (VTT, IEC TC8, Finland); Geert-Jan Bluemink (VTT, Finland); Matthew Wadham-Gagnon (TechnoCentre éolien, Task 19, Canada); Jeroen Dillingh (VTT, Finland); Niels-Erik Clausen (DTU, Task 19, Denmark); and Rebecka Klintström (Vattenfall, Task 19, Sweden). Lastly we would also like to thank our editor, Lyn Harrison at InsightWind, for her continued support and diligence in delivering this report. In addition to this report, further information related to BTM's World Market Update 2012 is available as a PowerPoint presentation on CD-Rom. The CD-Rom contains all the tables and graphs from the report. Please visit the website www.BTM.dk or www.navigantresearch.com for more information.
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Published by Navigant Research, the research arm of Navigant Consulting, Inc. (‘Navigant’), Chicago, Illinois USA ISBN: 978-87-994438-4-0 www.navigantresearch.com Phone: Denmark: London: US:
+45 97 32 52 99 +44 (0)207 015 8723 +1 503.476.2711 Fax:
Denmark: London: US:
+45 97 32 55 93 +44 (0)207 469 1110 +1 916 852 1073
Contacts: Per Krogsgaard
[email protected] Birger T. Madsen
[email protected] Feng Zhao
[email protected] Aris Karcanias
[email protected] Bruce Hamilton
[email protected] For more information about Navigant, go to: www.navigant.com Cover illustration: Front Cover: GE 1.6-100 turbine at Invenergy’s Bishop Hill wind farm in Illinois, United States. This model is the most popular wind turbine installed in the US in 2012. Copyright © General Electric and Invenergy LLC Back Cover: Vestas V90-2.0 MW wind turbine. Copyright © Vestas Wind Systems A/S Note: Government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this report are not protected by copyright or intellectual property claims. Note: Editing of this report was closed on March, 19, 2013.
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Section 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This summary highlights the main developments in the international wind power market during 2012 and the key conclusions of a five year market growth forecast to 2017. The main points of a prediction for likely market progress for the five years to 2022 are also included. The 2012 special theme of this report reviews recent progress in the development of wind turbines for operation in cold climates. Table 2.1
Wind Power Development, World Markets: 2012
Highlights of Wind Power Development in 2012 Record installation of 44.95 GW GE Wind displaces Vestas as the No.1 supplier in the top ten ranking United States becomes the world’s No.1 wind power market with the strongest annual performance yet Offshore wind more than doubles annual installation and lines up for steady growth in Europe Economic value of global market to grow from EUR 57.7 billion in 2012 to EUR 85.4 billion in 2017 Direct drive turbines take 19.5% of the global market as traditional DFIG regains in popularity GE's 1.6 turbine range the most installed in 2012 Wind power will deliver at least 2.62% of the world's electricity in 2013, growing to 4.9% in 2017. Wind power capacity installation in 2013 is forecast to drop 10% compared with 2012 (Source: Navigant Research)
2.1
Resilient market growth in 2012 With the addition of 44,951 MW in new installations in 2012, world wind power capacity grew to around 285,700 MW, an increase in the total wind power installation base of 18.6%. Market growth year-to-year in 2012 was a modest 7.8%, higher than in 2011. The annual growth rate for the past five years is 17.8%, achieved in a world suffering in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, with traditionally large markets for wind power in economic recession in America and Europe. Demand side highlights include: »
44,951 MW of newly installed wind power capacity.
»
Cumulative installed capacity climbed to 285,761 MW by the end of 2012. Around 23,350 new wind turbines were erected in 60 countries.
»
Europe lost its position as the world region installing most wind power, recording 28.5% of all new installation in 2012, a 4% increase on 2011, but 12.5% less than five years ago.
»
Across the American continent wind installation grew by 12.3% compared with 2011, mainly due to a buoyant United States market driven by a threatened expiry of tax benefits for wind investors. The American continent represented 35.2% of the global wind market in 2012.
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2.2
»
Asia lost its lead as the region with highest wind power growth. Its market contracted in 2012. Including OECD Pacific, annual installation of new wind capacity decreased from 21,699 MW in 2011 to 15,921 MW in 2012, a drop of 26.6%. China and India remained the leading countries in the region, but the two Asian giants experienced a drop of 26.4% and 29.2%, respectively, in 2012. The Asian/OECD Pacific region took a 35.5% share of the year’s total global market.
»
The United States recaptured its title as the world's largest market with 13,124 MW of new wind power installed in 2012. China came a close second with 12,960 MW, followed by Germany and India. The exit of France and Sweden from the top ten ranking in 2012 is notable. Emerging wind power markets Brazil and Romania, in eighth and tenth place respectively, entered the top ten for the first time.
»
Penetration of wind power in the world’s electricity supply has reached 2.62%, which is the proportion of electricity forecast to come from wind energy in 2013.
»
In the offshore market, nine new projects were installed, adding 1,131 MW, more than double the capacity added in 2011. Over 66% of new offshore capacity in 2012 was installed in the U.K., all of it supplied by Siemens. Both the U.K. and Siemens retain their status as largest offshore wind market and largest offshore technology supplier, respectively. Three offshore projects were installed in China with a combined capacity of 110 MW. Offshore wind in 2012 represented 1.8% of the global wind turbine market, but with more than 4,000 MW in 25 projects under construction in Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, the U.K., China, Japan and South Korea, that percentage is set to grow.
Big shake-up in the top ten wind turbine supplier ranking A major shake-up in the rankings of the world's top ten wind turbine suppliers was seen for the first time in several years in 2012 »
Vestas was displaced from the No.1 position for the first time since claiming the top spot in 2000, despite increasing its global market share by 1.1% in 2012
»
GE Wind ascended from No. 3 to No. 1 position, boosted by a rush to capitalize on the U.S. Production Tax Credit, with a global market share of more than 15% in 2012
»
Siemens rapidly ascended to global No. 3 in 2012 from ninth the previous year thanks to strong performance both in the U.S. and the offshore market
»
Enercon dominated the German market and maintained its position in the top five by rising to No. 4
»
Suzlon rose one position to No. 5 by relying on the strong performance of its subsidiary REpower and its leadership in India
»
Gamesa dropped out of the top five to No. 6, a result of the moratorium on development in its home market, Spain
»
While the four leading Chinese turbine OEMs, Goldwind, United Power, Sinovel, and Mingyang are still included in the top ten, none are among this year’s top five.
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»
China’s two market leaders, Goldwind and Sinovel, suffered from transmission bottlenecks and manufacturing overcapacity in their home market. Goldwind drops to No. 7 from global No. 2 in 2011. Sinovel continues to drop in the rankings, narrowly maintaining its position in the top ten.
The five companies just outside the top ten ranking are: Nordex (GE), XEMC (CN), Sewind (CN), Wind World India (IND) and Alstom Wind (FR) Figure 2.1
Top-10 Suppliers (Global) in 2012
(Source: Navigant Research)
2.3
Significant trend in larger turbines and market diversification The wind power industry continues to demonstrate its ability to rapidly evolve to meet new demands in markets that face a variety of challenges, 2012 being no exception. Trends observed in 2012 include: »
The average size of turbine delivered to the market was 1,847 kW, a 170 kW increase on average size in 2011, measured in rated capacity. In the Asian markets smaller turbines are preferred. The average size of turbine delivered to India in 2011 was 1,229 kW and in Denmark it was 3,080 kW. Average size of turbine supplied in the world’s two largest wind power markets, the U.S. and China, was 1,930 kW and 1,646 kW, respectively.
»
Offshore wind turbine size continues to grow, increasing on average by 79 kW from 3700 kW in 2011 to 3,793 kW.
»
Direct drive wind turbines grew in popularity. More than 14 companies globally offered wind turbines with a direct drive solution to energy transfer from the rotor to the generator. Although the global market share of this emerging technology dropped by 1.7% to 19.5% between 2011 and 2012, the drop was a reflection of the contraction of the overall market
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in China and the resulting impact on sales for the two leading suppliers of direct drive turbines, Goldwind and XEMC.
2.4
»
Mainstream companies move towards manufacturing in emerging markets as growth in established wind markets slows, stagnates or declines.
»
The focus on product diversification grows with wind turbine vendors designing machines for maximum energy production in low wind speed areas, for operation in high altitudes or in cold climates. They are also diversifying their businesses by entering the rapidly growing wind turbine operation, maintenance and service market.
»
Utilities and Independent Power Producers are the dominant customer group in the market. The top 15 wind farm owner-operators controlled around 32% of the aggregate installed capacity in the world at the end of 2012.
Strong growth going forward after short period of adjustment For the second year running a reduction in market size is forecast for the next five years. The 2011 World Market Update forecast was for a 5% reduction in the annual growth rate. The 2012 forecast is for the addition of 241,620 MW to 2017, 10% less than the forecast made in 2011. The lowering of the forecast growth rate is mainly to account for a projected slowdown in wind turbine sales in 2013 and 2015. The average growth rate for new installation for the forecast period 2013-2017 drops to 5.1%. A drop of over 10% is anticipated in 2013 compared with 2012. The revised forecast is explained by: »
An expected weak U.S. market in 2013, the result of a last minute extension of wind's federal production tax credit, which had been due to expire at the end of the year. The extension on January 1, 2013 came too late to rescue 2013 entirely. The extension is for one year only and means the U.S. market faces more political uncertainty after 2013, although the PTC is fuelling near-term growth through 2014.
»
The world’s largest wind market, China, is still in transition from a period of breakneck growth to a period of more stable development as more transmission capacity is built, but lack of sufficient grid capacity is a problem that cannot be solved overnight.
»
A number of emerging European countries like Poland, Romania, and Turkey, are performing well alongside strong markets like the U.K. and Germany, but markets in long-established wind power growth engines like Spain and Italy are expected to contract in coming years.
Although a decline in the U.S. and some established European markets is anticipated, growth in emerging countries in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Africa, and a growing offshore market is expected to redress the balance. Furthermore, the EU countries are still required to meet their 2020 targets under the EU directive for renewable energy. Growth in the two leading markets of China and India will probably take off again in the middle of the forecast period. The global wind power market will continue to grow after a short period of slower growth and the market outlook for wind power after 2015 is optimistic.
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The distribution of new installed capacity among continents in the next five years is estimated to be: American continent 19.4%; Asia (including OECD-Pacific) 46.5%; Europe 30.1%; and rest of the world 4%. Concerns about security of electricity supply and manmade climate change continue to be the main drivers for increased use of wind energy. This report's market prediction for the 2018-2022 period indicates an improved average growth rate of 8.9%. Geopolitical indicators point to both a need and a desire for more renewable energy, even though clean energy issues slipped down the political agenda during the financial crisis. Political action to implement new decisions to deal with climate change seems likely. Other key figures from this report's five year forecast and market prediction for the following five years are: »
Europe will lose its position as the region with most wind power capacity by 2015, but will account for 30% of total market demand over the forecast period.
»
The American continent will contribute 19% of total demand over the forecast period to 2017, the smaller proportion mainly due to the expected slowdown of the U.S. market. Canada will continue to grow and become a stable market. Brazil is expected to maintain its position as the largest market in Latin America.
»
South & East Asia will form the biggest market over the next five years, led by China and India. South & East Asia will account for 43% of all demand over the forecast period.
»
OECD Pacific will see stable growth, firstly led by Australia and followed by Japan and South Korea at the end of the forecast period.
»
By the end of the forecast period in 2017, cumulative global wind power capacity will have reached 527 GW of which 183 GW will be in Europe, nearly 200 GW in South & East Asia and 120 GW in the American continent.
»
Offshore installation of wind power will increase rapidly by the middle of the forecast period. By 2017, it will make up about 18% of total global demand for wind capacity. Europe will be the major market for offshore wind and by 2017 offshore wind will make up 30% of the European wind market. The U.K. and Germany will be the major players in the sector up to 2017. China will also contribute significantly to this sector from 2016 onward.
»
By the end of the market prediction period in 2022, aggregate global wind power capacity will pass the 900 GW mark and supply around 7.4% of the world's electricity demand.
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Figure 2.2
Forecast for 2013-2017
Annual Wind Power Development Actual 1990-2012 & Forecast 2013-2017 70,000
60,000
50,000
MW
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0 1990
1995
Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant March 2013
2000
2005 Europe
2012 Americas
Asia
Rest of World
2017 Existing
(Source: Navigant Research)
The Special Theme Section 9 in WMU 2012, Cold Climate turbines, reviews the challenges of operating wind turbines in cold climates; provides a geographical breakdown of cold climate wind turbine markets; compares the cost of energy from standard wind turbines in cold climates with the cost of energy from turbines adapted for cold climate operation; introduces the latest commercial applications developed by leading wind turbine vendors and component suppliers; and identifies future wind-related opportunities in cold climate markets. The review concludes that more than 71.5 GW of installed capacity at the end of 2012 was operating in Cold Climate regions around the globe. Over the WMU's forecast period to 2017, 50 GW of the expected wind power capacity will be installed in Cold Climates.
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World Market Update 2012
Section 14 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section 1 ........................................................................................................................................................... 1 Preface .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................................... 2 Section 2 ........................................................................................................................................................... 4 Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................... 4 2.1
Resilient market growth in 2012 .......................................................................................................... 4
2.2
Big shake-up in the top ten wind turbine supplier ranking ..................................................................... 5
2.3
Significant trend in larger turbines and market diversification ................................................................ 6
2.4
Strong growth going forward after short period of adjustment ................................................................ 7
Section 3 .......................................................................................................................................................... 10 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 10 3.1
Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 10
3.2
Sources ............................................................................................................................................ 11
3.3
Significant events in the wind industry in 2012 .................................................................................... 11
3.3.1
Company news ............................................................................................................................ 11
3.3.1.1 American GE Energy leads on several fronts ............................................................................ 11 3.3.1.2 Big drop in orders for Danish Vestas ........................................................................................ 12 3.3.1.3 Siemens boosts wind business revenues .................................................................................. 14 3.3.1.4 Enercon continues to go its own way in Germany and abroad .................................................... 15 3.3.1.5 Latin America helps globalize Spanish Gamesa ........................................................................ 16 3.3.1.6 Major orders for Indian Suzlon Energy and debt restructuring .................................................... 17 3.3.1.7 REpower in Germany achieves rapid offshore expansion for owner Suzlon ................................ 18 3.3.1.8 Record orders take Nordex into new markets ............................................................................ 19
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3.3.1.9 French Alstom continues to expand outside Spanish home market ............................................. 20 3.3.1.10 Areva scores well offshore in home market France ................................................................... 21 3.3.1.11 Chinese Goldwind continues international expansion ................................................................ 21 3.3.1.12 United Power of China stays mainly at home ............................................................................ 22 3.3.1.13 Sinovel wins orders in new markets and builds more manufacturing capacity ............................. 23 3.3.1.14 Chinese Mingyang establishes test center in America and secures big deal in India ................... 24 3.3.1.15 Japanese Hitachi acquires technology for floating off Fukushima ............................................... 24 3.3.1.16 Clipper Windpower sold to United States turnaround expert ...................................................... 24 3.3.2
Selected Political Events .............................................................................................................. 25
3.3.2.1 European Union ...................................................................................................................... 25 3.3.2.1.1.
United Kingdom announces renewables spending to 2020 ................................................ 25
3.3.2.1.2.
Germany proposes cuts in wind payments ....................................................................... 25
3.3.2.2 North and South America ......................................................................................................... 25 3.3.2.2.1.
United States temporarily secures wind market ................................................................ 25
3.3.2.3 Asia ........................................................................................................................................ 26 3.3.2.3.1.
China struggles with shortage of grid capacity ................................................................. 26
3.3.2.3.2.
Japan wobbles on nuclear phase out ............................................................................... 26
Section 4 .......................................................................................................................................................... 27 Market Development in 2012 - Demand Side .................................................................................................... 27 4.1
Record global wind market growth once more ..................................................................................... 27
4.2
Comments to Tables 4.2 through 4.6 .................................................................................................. 31
4.2.1
North America ............................................................................................................................. 31
4.2.1.1 United States ahead of China as largest world wind market in 2012 ........................................... 31 4.2.1.2 Canada heads for 20% electricity from wind ............................................................................. 32 4.2.1.3 Latin America rapidly picks up speed ....................................................................................... 33
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4.2.2
Europe ........................................................................................................................................ 33
4.2.2.1 Spain slips behind Italy in size of annual wind market ............................................................... 33 4.2.2.2 Germany keeps on trucking ..................................................................................................... 34 4.2.2.3 France slows down but takes action to speed up ....................................................................... 35 4.2.2.4 Denmark still leads with highest volume of wind penetration ...................................................... 35 4.2.2.5 Italy sees installation rush prior to change in market structure ................................................... 36 4.2.2.6 Sweden gains from joint green certificates market with Norway ................................................. 36 4.2.2.7 U.K. scores record year helped by offshore progress ................................................................ 37 4.2.2.8 Other European countries help balance decline in some mature markets ................................... 37 4.2.3
South and East Asia .................................................................................................................... 38
4.2.3.1 India slow down sparked by expiration of regulatory support ..................................................... 38 4.2.3.2 P.R. China market contracts for second consecutive year ......................................................... 38 4.2.4
OECD Pacific .............................................................................................................................. 39
4.2.4.1 Australia pushes Japan off top position .................................................................................... 39 4.2.4.2 Japan suffers slow year with late introduction of new feed-in tariff ............................................. 39 4.2.5
Rest of the World led by North Africa with most activity ................................................................. 39
4.3
The Offshore Market in 2012 .............................................................................................................. 40
4.4
Overview of Global Wind Turbine Fleet ............................................................................................... 44
4.5
The Top 10 Markets in the World ........................................................................................................ 47
4.6
Commercial MW Technology in the Market .......................................................................................... 49
4.6.1
Larger Turbines ........................................................................................................................... 49
4.6.2
The Direct Drive Concept ............................................................................................................. 50
Section 5 .......................................................................................................................................................... 54 Supply Side of the Market in 2012 .................................................................................................................... 54 5.1
Accounting methodology and standardization ...................................................................................... 54
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5.1.1 5.2
Major changes in wind turbine supplier rankings in 2012 ................................................................ 55
American, European and Indian OEMs push Chinese out of the top five ............................................... 56
5.2.1
Brief profile of the top ten supplier positions in the market in 2012 ................................................. 57
5.2.1.1 GE Energy (6,696 MW) ............................................................................................................ 57 5.2.1.2 Vestas Wind Systems (6,020 MW) ........................................................................................... 57 5.2.1.3 Siemens Wind (4,114 MW) ...................................................................................................... 57 5.2.1.4 Enercon (3,538 MW) ............................................................................................................... 58 5.2.1.5 Suzlon Group (3,177 MW) ....................................................................................................... 58 5.2.1.6 Gamesa (2,625 MW) ............................................................................................................... 58 5.2.1.7 Goldwind (2,609 MW) .............................................................................................................. 58 5.2.1.8 United Power (2,029MW) ......................................................................................................... 58 5.2.1.9 Sinovel (1,380 MW) ................................................................................................................. 59 5.2.1.10 Mingyang (1,183 MW) ............................................................................................................. 59 5.2.2 5.3
Still only one truly global wind turbine supplier .................................................................................... 60
5.3.1 5.4
Top 15 suppliers .......................................................................................................................... 59
Comments and methodology for market share ranking 2011 to 2012 .............................................. 61
Trends in the Competitive Market ....................................................................................................... 63
5.4.1
Wind power industry globalizes and consolidates .......................................................................... 63
5.4.2
Established companies head for manufacturing foothold in emerging markets ................................ 64
5.4.3
Wind turbine manufacturers in fierce competition .......................................................................... 64
5.4.4
Shedding of non-core assets during economic tough time .............................................................. 64
5.4.5
Advanced lean and flexible manufacturing .................................................................................... 65
5.4.6
Battle field moves to markets for specialized niche technology ....................................................... 65
5.4.7
Diversification into O&M services a growing trend ......................................................................... 65
5.4.8
Direct drive wind turbines grow in popularity ................................................................................. 65
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5.4.9
Return to the past with traditional DFIG or towards a medium speed concept ................................. 65
5.4.10
Wind turbines getting bigger and bigger ........................................................................................ 66
5.4.11
Four identifiable wind turbine size groups in the 2012 market ........................................................ 66
Section 6 .......................................................................................................................................................... 69 Wind Power Plant Owners ................................................................................................................................ 69 6.1
Wind project ownership base goes big time ......................................................................................... 69
6.2
Industry comes to terms with a new reality post the financial crisis ....................................................... 71
6.3
Strong Chinese presence among top 15 wind owner-operators ............................................................ 74
6.3.1
Comments to Table 6.1 ................................................................................................................ 75
6.4
Main players dramatically increase project pipelines and targets .......................................................... 77
6.5
Plenty of growth potential in large wind power investors ...................................................................... 80
6.6
New entrants seize opportunities in tough economic times ................................................................... 82
Section 7 .......................................................................................................................................................... 84 Market Forecasts and Estimates ...................................................................................................................... 84 7.1
Five year market forecast for 13% growth to 2017 ............................................................................... 87
7.2
Commentary by country and regions ................................................................................................... 93
7.2.1
American Continent ..................................................................................................................... 93
7.2.1.1 United States .......................................................................................................................... 94 7.2.1.2 Canada ................................................................................................................................... 95 7.2.1.3 Brazil ...................................................................................................................................... 96 7.2.1.4 Mexico conditions right for growth ............................................................................................ 97 7.2.1.5 Other Latin American countries ................................................................................................ 97 7.2.2
Europe ........................................................................................................................................ 97
7.2.2.1 Germany ................................................................................................................................. 98 7.2.2.2 France .................................................................................................................................... 99
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7.2.2.3 Spain .................................................................................................................................... 100 7.2.2.4 United Kingdom .................................................................................................................... 101 7.2.2.5 Sweden ................................................................................................................................ 102 7.2.2.6 Italy ...................................................................................................................................... 103 7.2.2.7 Turkey .................................................................................................................................. 104 7.2.2.8 Other European countries represent significant markets .......................................................... 105 7.2.3
Asia Pacific ............................................................................................................................... 105
7.2.3.1 P.R. China ............................................................................................................................ 106 7.2.3.2 India ..................................................................................................................................... 107 7.2.3.3 Japan ................................................................................................................................... 108 7.2.3.4 South Korea .......................................................................................................................... 109 7.2.3.5 Australia ............................................................................................................................... 110 7.2.4
Other Continents ....................................................................................................................... 111
7.2.4.1 Egypt instability poses challenges for wind development ......................................................... 111 7.2.4.2 Morocco an attractive African market ..................................................................................... 112 7.2.4.3 South Africa market takes off ................................................................................................. 112 7.2.4.4 Tunisia market steady but threatened by political unrest ......................................................... 113 7.2.4.5 Central Asia a region of rich wind resources ........................................................................... 113 7.3
Global Growth over Next Five Years ................................................................................................. 114
7.3.1
Economic value of global wind market to 2017 forecast at €334 billion ......................................... 115
7.3.2
Emerging Markets on steady course for growth ........................................................................... 118
7.3.2.1 Europe new markets start to take up the slack ........................................................................ 118 7.3.2.2 Asia & OECD Pacific see Australia as top emerging market ..................................................... 119 7.3.2.3 American Continent trend is Latin American and Canadian growth ........................................... 119 7.3.2.4 Rest of world activity topped by Africa .................................................................................... 119
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7.4
Offshore wind will make up a sizable portion of the global wind market in 2017 .................................. 119
7.4.1 7.5
Solutions to offshore challenges required for ambitions to be met in 2013-2022 period ................. 123
Expectations and predictions for development 2018-2022 .................................................................. 124
7.5.1
World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA ................................................................................................ 128
7.5.2
European Wind Energy Association, EWEA ................................................................................. 130
7.5.3
Wind Force 12 Scenario: EWEA and Greenpeace International .................................................... 130
7.5.4
Comments on the Projections ..................................................................................................... 132
7.6
Geopolitical Issues: Climate change resurfacing as major influence in energy geopolitics ................... 133
7.6.1
UN climate negotiations and the Kyoto Protocol .......................................................................... 133
7.6.2
Ongoing climate negotiations – the COP meetings ...................................................................... 134
7.6.2.1 COP-15 in Copenhagen, Denmark disappointing but Copenhagen Accord emerges .................. 135 7.6.2.2 COP-16 in Cancun, Mexico brings emission reduction targets into UN process ......................... 135 7.6.2.3 COP-17 in Durban, South Africa gets down to details of increased transparency ...................... 135 7.6.2.4 COP-18 in Doha, Qatar keeps process on track but makes no new commitments ..................... 136 7.6.3
In conclusion, the Kyoto Protocol helps underpin the wind market ................................................ 136
7.6.4
European energy policy and regulation ....................................................................................... 137
7.6.5
Landmark energy and environment policy agreed by Europe in 2007 ............................................ 139
7.6.6
EU Energy Roadmap 2050 sets path for 97% renewables electricity ............................................. 139
Section 8 ........................................................................................................................................................ 142 Penetration of Wind Power Electricity and Wind Market Structures .............................................................. 142 8.1
Methodology and assumptions ......................................................................................................... 142
8.2
Remarkable growth rate of wind contribution to global electricity supply ............................................. 143
8.2.1 8.3
Comment to Table 8.3 ................................................................................................................ 145
Wind market structures continue to evolve ........................................................................................ 145
8.3.1
Supplementary Notes to Table 8.4 .............................................................................................. 148
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8.3.1.1 Note 1: Australia ................................................................................................................... 148 8.3.1.2 Note 2: Bulgaria .................................................................................................................... 148 8.3.1.3 Note 3: Brazil ........................................................................................................................ 149 8.3.1.4 Note 4: Canada ..................................................................................................................... 149 8.3.1.5 Note 6: Denmark ................................................................................................................... 150 8.3.1.6 Note 7: France ...................................................................................................................... 150 8.3.1.7 Note 8: Germany ................................................................................................................... 151 8.3.1.8 Note 9: India ......................................................................................................................... 151 8.3.1.9 Note 10: Italy ........................................................................................................................ 152 8.3.1.10 Note 11: Japan...................................................................................................................... 153 8.3.1.11 Note 12: Poland .................................................................................................................... 153 8.3.1.12 Note 14: Spain ...................................................................................................................... 154 8.3.1.13 Note 15: South Africa ............................................................................................................ 155 8.3.1.14 Note 16: Sweden ................................................................................................................... 156 8.3.1.15 Note 17: Turkey .................................................................................................................... 156 8.3.1.16 Note 18: U.K. ........................................................................................................................ 156 8.3.1.17 Note 19: U.S. ........................................................................................................................ 158 Section 9 ........................................................................................................................................................ 159 Special Theme: Cold Climate Turbines .......................................................................................................... 159 9.1
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 159
9.2
Definitions and terminology .............................................................................................................. 159
9.2.1
Abbreviations and terms ............................................................................................................ 159
9.2.2
Cold Climate ............................................................................................................................. 160
9.2.3
Low Temperatures ..................................................................................................................... 161
9.2.4
Icing Conditions ......................................................................................................................... 161
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9.2.5
Current standards, guidelines and recommendations ................................................................... 162
9.3
Challenges presented by cold climates ............................................................................................. 163
9.4
Size of the Cold Climate market ....................................................................................................... 165
9.4.1
Methodology of market size analysis .......................................................................................... 165
9.4.2
Installed and forecasted capacity in Cold Climates ...................................................................... 167
9.4.3
Regional distribution of installed and forecasted capacity ............................................................ 168
9.5
Technological requirements for Cold Climates ................................................................................... 171
9.5.1
Resource assessment ................................................................................................................ 171
9.5.2
Wind Turbine Generators ........................................................................................................... 172
9.5.3
Testing and certification ............................................................................................................. 172
9.6
Commercial applications developed by turbine OEMs and component suppliers .................................. 172
9.6.1
Blade heating ............................................................................................................................ 174
9.6.2
Instruments ............................................................................................................................... 175
9.6.3
Anti-icing coatings ..................................................................................................................... 175
9.7
Economics of Cold Climate technology & projects ............................................................................. 175
9.8
Examples of Cold Climate projects ................................................................................................... 180
9.9
Conclusions: A growing and significant market .................................................................................. 180
Section 10 ...................................................................................................................................................... 181 Appendix A: Profiles of leading wind turbine manufacturers ........................................................................ 181 10.1
Note ................................................................................................................................................ 181
10.1.1
Disclaimer ................................................................................................................................. 181
10.2
GE Energy (U.S.) ............................................................................................................................. 181
10.3
Vestas Wind Systems (Denmark) ...................................................................................................... 181
10.4
Siemens Wind Power (Germany) ...................................................................................................... 182
10.5
Enercon (Germany) ......................................................................................................................... 182
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10.6
Suzlon Group (India) ........................................................................................................................ 182
10.7
Gamesa (Spain) .............................................................................................................................. 183
10.8
Goldwind (China) ............................................................................................................................. 183
10.9
United Power (China) ....................................................................................................................... 183
10.10
Sinovel Wind (China) ................................................................................................................. 184
10.11
Mingyang Wind Technology (China) ............................................................................................ 184
10.12
Other wind turbine suppliers ....................................................................................................... 184
10.12.1
XEMC Wind Power (China) .................................................................................................... 184
10.12.2
Nordex (Germany) ................................................................................................................. 185
10.12.3
Shanghai Electric Wind Power Equipment Company (China) ................................................... 185
10.12.4
Wind World India (India) ........................................................................................................ 185
10.12.5
Alstom Wind (Spain) .............................................................................................................. 186
10.12.6
Acciona Windpower (Spain) ................................................................................................... 186
10.12.7
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan) ....................................................................................... 186
10.12.8
Envision Energy (China) ........................................................................................................ 186
10.12.9
Dongfang Turbine Company (China)....................................................................................... 187
10.12.10
CSIC Haizhuang Windpower (China) ...................................................................................... 187
Section 11 ...................................................................................................................................................... 188 Appendix B: Profiles of major sub-suppliers ................................................................................................. 188 11.1
B-1: Blades ..................................................................................................................................... 188
11.2
B-2: Gearboxes ............................................................................................................................... 189
11.3
B-3: Generators ............................................................................................................................... 190
11.4
B-4: Bearings .................................................................................................................................. 192
11.5
B-5: Towers ..................................................................................................................................... 193
11.6
B-6: Other Components ................................................................................................................... 195
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11.7
B-7: Wind turbine test centers .......................................................................................................... 198
Section 12 ...................................................................................................................................................... 200 Appendix C: Profiles of major wind project developers/operators ................................................................ 200 Section 13 ...................................................................................................................................................... 205 Acronym and Abbreviation List ..................................................................................................................... 205 Technical Units .............................................................................................................................................. 209 Section 14 ...................................................................................................................................................... 210 Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................................... 210 Section 15 ...................................................................................................................................................... 221 Table of Charts and Figures ........................................................................................................................... 221 Section 16 ...................................................................................................................................................... 225 Index .............................................................................................................................................................. 225 Section 17 ...................................................................................................................................................... 230 Sources and Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 230 Notes .............................................................................................................................................................. 230
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Section 15 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES Figure 2.1
Top-10 Suppliers (Global) in 2012 ................................................................................................. 6
Figure 2.2
Forecast for 2013-2017 ................................................................................................................. 9
Figure 4.1
Annual & cumulative global wind energy development 1983-2012 .................................................. 28
Figure 4.2
Total installed wind power capacity at the end of 2006, 2009 & 2012 .............................................. 40
Figure 5.1
Typical onshore wind turbine development timeline ....................................................................... 55
Figure 5.2
The top ten suppliers 2012 ........................................................................................................... 57
Figure 5.3
Change in market share 2011-2012 .............................................................................................. 60
Figure 5.4
Global footprint of top ten wind turbine manufacturers 2012 ........................................................... 61
Figure 6.1
Market share of major utilities and IPPs ........................................................................................ 76
Figure 7.1
Cumulative installed capacity by region at the end of 2012 and by 2017 ......................................... 92
Figure 7.2
Forecast of annual installation for the years 2013-2017 ................................................................. 92
Figure 7.3
Expected world market in euro sales five years ahead ................................................................. 118
Figure 7.4
Potential offshore wind capacity in U.K. waters ........................................................................... 120
Figure 7.5
Actual 1990-2012 - Forecast 2013-2017 - Prediction 2018-2022 ................................................... 128
Figure 7.6
Prediction for cumulative installed wind capacity by 2018 and 2022 ............................................. 130
Figure 7.7
Cumulative Wind Power Development up to 2022 ........................................................................ 132
Figure 7.8
Carbon emission permit price evolution in the EU ........................................................................ 138
Figure 9.1
Definition of CC: Low temperature climate and icing climate ........................................................ 160
Figure 9.2
Photos showing conditions in a wind farm located in northern Finland where both low temperatures and icing conditions occur .......................................................................................................... 161
Figure 9.3
Installed and forecasted capacity in the world ............................................................................. 169
Figure 9.4
Technology maturity curves for Cold Climate adaptations ............................................................ 174
Figure 9.5
Illustration of low temperature and/or icing related costs and risk of a wind project in cold climate . 177
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Table 2.1
Wind Power Development, World Markets: 2012 ............................................................................. 4
Table 4.1
World market growth rates 2007-2012 ........................................................................................... 28
Table 4.2
Installed capacity in 2011 and 2012 (Global) ................................................................................. 29
Table 4.3
Installed capacity in 2011 and 2012 (American continent) .............................................................. 29
Table 4.4
Installed capacity in 2011 and 2012 (Asia) .................................................................................... 29
Table 4.5
Installed capacity in 2011 and 2012 (rest of world) ........................................................................ 30
Table 4.6
Installed capacity in 2011 and 2012 (Europe) ................................................................................ 31
Table 4.7
Global installed offshore wind power in 2011-2012 ........................................................................ 41
Table 4.8
Global offshore wind test sites ...................................................................................................... 42
Table 4.9
Global operating offshore wind farms by end 2012 ........................................................................ 43
Table 4.10
Offshore wind project under construction by the end of 2012 ......................................................... 44
Table 4.11
Numbers of wind turbines worldwide ............................................................................................. 46
Table 4.12
Average size of turbine (kW) installed each year ........................................................................... 47
Table 4.13
Average size of turbine (kW) in cumulative installation .................................................................. 47
Table 4.14
The 10 largest markets in 2012 (annual installed MW) ................................................................... 48
Table 4.15
The 10 largest markets by the end of 2012 (cumulative MW) .......................................................... 48
Table 4.16
Growth rates in the Top 10 markets .............................................................................................. 49
Table 4.17
Selected MW class wind turbines in the market ............................................................................. 51
Table 5.1
The top-10 suppliers in 2012 ........................................................................................................ 56
Table 5.2
The five next in line ..................................................................................................................... 56
Table 5.3
Leading suppliers in the top ten markets in 2012 ........................................................................... 62
Table 5.4
Share of supplied MW by top ten wind turbine suppliers ................................................................ 62
Table 5.5
Market shares in 2010, 2011 and 2012 ......................................................................................... 63
Table 5.6
Wind turbine size classes by market share 2010-2012 ................................................................... 67
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Table 5.7
Wind turbine size classes by market share 2012 ........................................................................... 67
Table 5.8
Leading suppliers in the four wind turbine size classes 2012 .......................................................... 68
Table 5.9
Leading suppliers in the 1.5 MW+ size class 2012 ......................................................................... 68
Table 5.10
Leading suppliers in the multi-MW size class 2012 ........................................................................ 68
Table 6.1
Leading utility and IPP wind farm owner-operators ........................................................................ 75
Table 6.2
Potential major wind farm owner-operators/developers .................................................................. 82
Table 7.1
Forecast for wind power development 2013-2017 (global) .............................................................. 88
Table 7.2
Forecast for wind power development 2013-2017 (American continent) .......................................... 89
Table 7.3
Forecast for wind power development 2013-2017 (Asia) ................................................................ 89
Table 7.4
Forecast for wind power development 2013-2017 (rest of the world) ............................................... 90
Table 7.5
Forecast for wind power development 2013-2017 (Europe) ............................................................ 91
Table 7.6
Forecast for offshore wind power development 2013 to 2017 ....................................................... 123
Table 7.7
Wind Force 12 vs. Actual Development: 2004-2012 .................................................................... 131
Table 7.8
Renewable energy targets for EU states to meet the “20% by 2020” policy ................................... 141
Table 8.1
Estimate of electricity from “2012 wind power capacity”, by country .............................................. 143
Table 8.2
Growth of wind power compared to worldwide electricity generation ............................................. 144
Table 8.3
Contribution of wind power to worldwide electricity generation ..................................................... 145
Table 8.4
Wind Incentives in selected countries ......................................................................................... 147
Table 9.1
IEA Ice Classification ................................................................................................................. 162
Table 9.2
Main challenges in Cold Climate wind energy .............................................................................. 164
Table 9.3
Description of data and criteria used in market size analysis ........................................................ 166
Table 9.4
Total installed and forecasted capacity in Cold Climates .............................................................. 168
Table 9.5
Regional distribution of installed and forecasted capacity in Cold Climates ................................... 170
Table 9.6
Commercially available CC WTGs in March 2013 based on the questionnaire ............................... 173
Table 9.7
Blade heating technology solutions ............................................................................................. 174
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Table 9.8
Instrument suppliers for Cold Climates ........................................................................................ 175
Table 9.9
Example of the effect of icing on P90 value of project AEP using different strategies .................... 178
Table 9.10
Economic implications of cold climate issues on the economics of a wind farm project .................. 179
Table 9.11
Example of CC projects .............................................................................................................. 180
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Section 17 SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Navigant Research’s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Navigant Research’s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Navigant Research’s analysts and its staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst’s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Navigant Research’s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Navigant Research is a market research group whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. Navigant Research is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets.
NOTES CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value ÷ Start Year Value) (1/steps) – 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2013 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
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Published 1Q 2013
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