Compressed Air Systems in the European Union

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7. Evaluation of the Impact of Measures

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Evaluation of the Impact of Measures

This task deals with the evaluation, in terms of energy consumption, of the impact of the programmes for action identified previously. The model, named a stock model, has been described and developed in Task 2. It allows the calculation of the impact of the energy savings actions. The energy savings actions are the ones identified in Task 6. They are organised in different scenarios, which are described below. The scenarios are different from the point of view of energy: while they are based on the same stock of systems the energy policy differs from one scenario to another. We indicate here the different hypothesis used by the model for the energy scenarios and the results of the model.

7.1

The Energy Scenarios

An equivalent consumption is recalculated per compressed air system, based on the values of consumption of Task 1. This consumption, per system, is specific to each country. This value reflects the specificity of each country, in terms of installed power, operating hours, etc. Due to the technical progress in energy efficiency, the new and upgraded systems consume less energy than the old systems. This is taken into account through a specific gain applied only to these systems: • For the old systems, in the stock since 1999, it is assumed that there is no improvement in energy consumption, • For the new systems entering the stock due to the growth in installed systems, it is assumed that energy consumption will be 5 % less than in the old systems, • For the upgraded systems, which gradually replace old systems, it is also assumed that energy consumption will diminish by 5 %. We are proposing three scenarios for energy consumption: • a scenario BAU (Business As Usual), • a scenario ARP (Awareness Raising Programme), • a scenario ERP (Economic and Regulatory Programme). The three scenarios differ globally in energy consumption. No specific hypothesis were applied to more detailed technical parameters (installed power, hours of operation, industrial maintenance practices, etc.). Rather, an overall reduction factor was applied, which takes into account these changes. In the BAU scenario, no energy policy is adopted, and no action is taken. This scenario continues the current trend of energy consumption. Only new and upgraded systems benefit from some progress in terms of energy efficiency. We propose to take an optimistic value, 5 % as the decrease of energy consump-

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tion for new and upgraded systems. This value integrates different elements: efficiency deteriorates with the age of the compressor; the upgrading of the systems may imply a reduction of the leaks; the new technologies are more efficient; machines are better sized to correspond to needs, etc. In the ARP scenario, we consider an effort on energy savings allowing reaching half of the maximum potential identified in Task 6, that is to say 16.5 % reduction in consumption in the year 2015. In this scenario, voluntary actions focused on awareness raising (in general the easier and least costly actions) are implemented over a 15 year period. In the ERP scenario, we consider that economic, fiscal and regulatory actions (mandatory measures, generally more difficult and expensive to implement) are implemented in parallel with the ARP actions during a 15 year period, in order to reach three quarters of the maximum potential identified in Task 6, that is to say 24.7 % reduction in consumption at the end of this period. For each scenario, we calculate the energy consumption, per year and per country, for each type of system.

7.2

Future Energy Consumption of CAS

The results are presented in different graphs and tables, showing either the total consumption, either the change in consumption per country, according to the scenario. Table 35:

Total CAS electricity consumption in TWh, per country France Germany

BAU 1999 2005 2010 2015 ARP 1999 2005 2010 2015 ERP + ARP 1999 2005 2010 2015

Italy

United Greece/Spain/ Rest of EU Kingdom Portugal

Total

12 12 12 11

14 14 13 13

12 13 13 13

10 10 10 10

9 10 10 10

23 23 22 22

80 81 80 79

12 11 11 10

14 13 12 12

12 12 12 11

10 9 9 8

9 9 9 8

23 22 20 19

80 77 73 69

12 11 10 9

14 13 11 10

12 12 11 10

10 9 8 7

9 9 8 7

23 21 19 16

80 74 68 61

In the BAU scenario, annual energy consumption only decreases by 1 TWh, to 80 TWh, the 1996 value. The consumption first increases to 81 TWh, and then decreases. Different countries evolve differently: total consumption over the pe-

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riod studied decreases in France, Germany, United Kingdom and the rest of the EU countries but increases (due to the growth in stock) in Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy.

CAS Electricity Consumption acc. to Scenario

Consumption, TWh

90 80

BAU ARP

70

ERP

60 50 1999

2005

2010

2015

Figure 16: CAS electricity consumption according to scenario

The stability in energy consumption, despite a 4 % increase of the stock, is due to the replacement of old systems by new and more efficient systems. As the stock increase is limited to 4 countries (of which only one with a large stock), it can be compensated by the current energy savings progress. Note that energy consumption would rise if the stock were to increase significantly, due to some unforeseen changes. Thus, reliance on current technological progress from industry, in the absence of a targeted energy policy, will not allow a decrease in energy consumption and the emission of greenhouses gases. It must be kept in mind that this scenario is based on an optimistic value of 5 % for current energy efficiency progress. Without any policy the consumption of the new systems might not decrease this much. If the policies and actions proposed in the ARP scenario were adopted, consumption would decrease to 69 TWh in 2015. In the ERP scenario, consumption would decrease to 61 TWh in 2015. In the both cases, the total consumption for each of the EU countries would decrease at the end of the period. For the 4 countries with an increase in stock, energy consumption would increase for the first few years, especially in the ARP scenario. In the ERP scenario, this appears only in Italy, where the increase of the stock is larger.

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CAS Electricity Consumption by Country, BAU Scenario

Consumption, TWh

25 20 15 10 5 1999

2005

2010

France Italy Rest of EU

2015

Germany United Kingdom Greece, Portugal, Spain

Figure 17: CAS electricity consumption by country, BAU scenario

CAS Electricity Consumption by Country, ARP Scenario

Consumption, TWh

25 20 15 10 5 1999

2005

2010

France Italy Rest of EU

2015

Germany United Kingdom Greece, Portugal, Spain

Figure 18: CAS electricity consumption by country, ARP scenario

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CAS Electricity Consumption by Country, ERP Scenario

Consumption, TWh

25 20 15 10 5 1999

2005

2010

France Italy Rest of EU

2015

Germany United Kingdom Greece, Portugal, Spain

Figure 19: CAS electricity consumption by country, ERP scenario

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