5. DEVELOPMENT OF THE PREFERRED TRANSPORTATION NETWORK The definition of the “ultimate” planning horizon network is a key goal of the project. The ultimate planning horizon for this TMP Update is the year 2031. The development of the preferred transportation network for the year 2031 followed a two-step approach, which was assessed using an evaluation framework. Step 1. In the first step, three network scenarios (described in Section 5.2) were tested against two population allocations identified by the Region of Durham and the Town of Ajax. The intent of this step was threefold. First, quantify the transportation impacts of the two proposed population allocations; second, gauge the impact of the 2007 TMP; and third, undertake an initial assessment and identify a list of projects that have the potential to improve travel through the Town, which would be used for streamlining and developing the preferred network; and Step 2. The potential project list identified through Step 1 was used in an iterative process to develop a preferred 2031 network that optimized system performance and addressed future transportation needs of the population allocation proposed by the Town of Ajax.

5.1 Evaluation Framework An evaluation framework was developed based on a review of the Official Plan principles, the evaluation criteria used in the 2007 TMP, the transportation objectives of the 2013 TMP, input received from the public through the online survey and input received at Public Information Centre 1. The evaluation framework has been prepared in order to guide the selection of the preferred transportation alternative for servicing the transportation needs in the Town. The framework follows a Multiple Account Evaluation (MAE) approach where each principle represents an account. The following principles (accounts) have been developed as themes that are common to the public comments and existing planning documents. These principles will be used to assess the alternatives: 1.

Provide a sustainable, multi-modal transportation network;

2.

Support a vibrant Uptown and Downtown;

3.

Create a livable and healthy community;

4.

Protect the environment; and

5.

Cost.

The principles have been elaborated to indicate specific objectives and also the quantitative and qualitative performance measures that will be used in the alternatives analysis. The evaluation framework listing the principles, objectives of the principles and their key performance measures is shown in Table 20.

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Ajax Transportation Master Plan Update February 2013 – Final Report

Table 20: 2031 Key System Metrics for Evaluation of Strategic Transportation Alternatives

Principle

Objectives • •

Sustainable, multi-modal transportation network • •

• • Vibrant Uptown and Downtown

• • •

Livable and healthy community

• •

• Protected environmental amenities

•

Supports alternatives to the personal automobile. Supports the development of “complete streets” by providing access for all modes of transportation and all users. Supports the biking and walking network. Supports the use of transit. Provides multi-modal access to employment and shopping areas. Supports mixed-use development. Encourages mobility alternatives to the personal automobile. Supports intensification of land uses. Integrates transportation planning and land use planning. Promotes active lifestyle and community well-being. Meets growth management strategies defined by Town, Region and Province. Protects and enhances the Greenlands System. Limits transportation construction in environmentally sensitive areas.

Key Performance Measures for Alternatives Analysis • •

•

• • • •

•

Maximizes benefit / cost ratio.

Number of additional road connections. Volume to capacity ratio in corridors. Walking distance to transit stops. Additional active transportation links.

• • •

Automobile emissions. Vehicle hours of travel. Vehicle kilometres of travel per capita.

•

Estimate of road construction avoided (lane-kilometres) in environmentally sensitive areas. Kilometres of new / expanded trails and on-street active transportation network.

•

•

Cost-effectiveness

Screenline volume to capacity ratios. Number of new road connections that can support and facilitate transit service. Percentage of lane-kilometres with a volume-to-capacity ratio greater than 0.9.

•

Estimated capital costs and timing of expenditures. Comparison of road projects through a Multiple Account Evaluation (MAE) Framework

39

5.2 Step 1: Testing of Network Scenarios and Identifying Potential Project List The key tool in the analysis was a version of the Durham Region EMME model, which was enhanced for this project by the study team.

5.2.1 Adjustments to 2031 Model Parameters The Region of Durham’s simplified GTA p.m. peak hour model uses a number of pre-defined parameters for each horizon year (2016, 2021 and 2031) to adjust travel behavior. These parameters are designed to capture shifts in travel patterns and transit mode splits that would occur as a result of policy and infrastructure changes in the Town, Region of Durham and the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA). Some of the key initiatives expected to be in place by 2031 that would have the greatest influence on travel in the Region and Town are shown in Table 21. Table 21: Key Initiatives Influencing Travel Behaviour

Extent

Initiative • •

Town of Ajax

• •

Region of Durham

• •

GTHA

Impact

Shift in jobs-housing balance Measures to increase use of active transportation Various initiatives to encourage greater use of active transportation modes First rapid transit corridor planned along Highway 2 No expansion to 6 lanes for auto only use The Big Move

•

Greater self-containment

•

Potential to significantly improve transit mode splits Higher transit mode splits

•

•

Significant improvement in transit mode splits

Given the extent of the above initiatives and their potential impact, three parameters in the Region’s model were identified and updated to reflect potential changes that could occur in travel behavior and patterns. These changes were applied to the three network scenarios being tested as part of Step 1 given that the impacts they represent are not being influenced by this TMP Update, but inherent to the GTHA and the Town of Ajax, as land use and travel patterns are expected to evolve over the next 20 years. These adjustments are documented in Table 22. Table 22: Adjustments to 2031 Model Parameters

Parameter

40

Extent

Initial Value (2031)

Adjusted Value (2031)

Rationale / Benchmark •

Global Transit Mode Split Value

GTHA

Home to Work Transit mode splits – Destination (mdpm13)

Town of Ajax / Town of Pickering

1.0

1.1

3.2 / 2.3

4 / 2.8

•

Value adjusted till 2031 forecasted p.m. peak period trips converged to those produced by the Hurontario Higher Order Transit Model (GTA Model 2.5)*. MMM’s experience has shown that the Highway 7 (York Region) and Hurontario Street (City of Mississauga) ridership is expected to nearly double between 2006 and

Ajax Transportation Master Plan Update February 2013 – Final Report

Parameter

Extent

Initial Value (2031)

Adjusted Value (2031)

2.2 / 1.6

2.75 / 2

Home to Work Transit mode splits – Origin (mopm13)

Rationale / Benchmark •

•

•

Base Auto Distribution (self containment factor)

• Town of Ajax

1.0

1.15

•

2031, after implementing the LRT. The Kingston corridor is expected to be home to close to 25% of the Town’s population and employment. Thus, a 25% increase to Home to Work (origin and destination) transit mode splits was implemented. The jobs/housing balance in the Town of Ajax is expected to increase by 15% between 2006 and 2031. The analysis completed for the York TMP showed that as the jobs housing balance in York Region would increase by 10%, selfcontainment in the Region would increase by 12.5%. Thus, a 15% increase in selfcontainment was adopted for the Town of Ajax by 2031.

* The Hurontario Higher Order Transit model was developed by MMM Group with Prof. Eric Miller from the University of Toronto in 2009. The model was a traditional four stage model calibrated using the 2006 TTS data. The model was used to undertake ridership projections for the 20 km Hurontario LRT line and is being currently used by Prof. Miller for subsequent projects.

5.2.2 2031 Population / Employment Allocations Two population allocations were tested as part of Step 1 of the network development process. The Region of Durham’s allocation was derived from the 2008 Durham Region Long Term Transit Strategy Study, whereas the Town of Ajax’s allocation, produced by the Town, was a more up-to-date view of development patterns expected by 2031. Of note, the Town’s allocation used the Region’s total population numbers as a control total. Table 23 presents the population and employment projections for the Town of Ajax. Table 23: Population and Employment Projections

Jurisdiction Region of Durham Town of Ajax

2006

2031

Population

Employment

Population

Employment

586,921 94,385

189,986 24,410

952,080 137,665

339,354 41,130

41

Figure 17 shows the differences in the two population allocations as provided by the Town of Ajax. The figure illustrates that the Town’s projects higher population in the northeast portion of the Town while projecting lower population numbers in the southern portion of the Town, when compared to the Region of Durham’s population forecasts. Figure 17: Population Allocations from the Region of Durham and Town of Ajax

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Ajax Transportation Master Plan Update February 2013 – Final Report

5.3 2031 Networks Tested As part of Step 1, three network scenarios were developed and tested using the two 2031 population allocations. Each network scenario is an accumulation of projects from the previous scenario and additional projects that reflect the theme of the network under consideration. The three network scenarios are as follows:

5.3.1 Scenario 1 – 2031 Status Quo / Base Case The following criteria are used to develop the 2031 Base Case network: •

2006 Network;

•

Projects under construction (Region and Town roads);

•

5 year and 10 year Capital Program from the Region and the Town; and

•

Ministry of Transportation, Ontario initiatives.

The following projects make up the base case: •

Highway 401 widening to 12 lanes through Ajax to Whitby and 10 lanes from Oshawa to the East Durham Link (EDL). Although this widening represents MTO’s ultimate plans for the corridor, they have not committed to any timeline for doing so. For the purpose of this study, this widening was assumed to be in place by 2031;

•

Partial interchange on Highway 401 and Lake Ridge Road;

•

Highway 407 East Extension (6 lanes from Brock Road to West Durham Link; and 4 lanes thereafter), West Durham Link (WDL) and the East Durham Link (EDL) at 4 lanes. Interchanges were modeled at Lake Ridge Road, Baldwin Street, Thickson Road, Simcoe Street, Harmony Road, Enfield Road, Regional Road 57, Darlington Clarke Townline, Highway 35/115 along Highway 407; Highway 7, Taunton Road, Kingston Road and Highway 401 along the WDL; and, Taunton Road, Highway 2 and Highway 401 along the EDL;

•

Extension of Chambers Drive to Audley Road extension;

•

Bayly Street widening to 4 lanes from Shoal Point to Lake Ridge Road;

•

Lake Ridge Road widening to 4 lanes from Bayly Street to Taunton Road;

•

Salem Road widening to 4 lanes from Rossland Road to Taunton Road (Note: this improvement has been constructed since the 2006 transportation model network was prepared. The widening has been added to the base case network.); and

•

Westney Road widening to 4 lanes from Magill Drive to Taunton Road.

43

5.3.2 Scenario 2 – 2007 TMP Scenario 2 is an accumulation of projects from Scenario 1 and those listed in the 2007 TMP. Of note, some of the projects identified in the 2007 TMP were not included in this scenario since the Town has identified those as issues to be re-visited and addressed specifically as part of this update. The following projects were added to the Scenario 1 network and tested as part of Scenario 2: •

Easterly extension of Achilles Road to Audley Road;

•

Extension of Audley Road to future extension of Achilles Road and beyond Highway 401 to Kingston Road;

•

Widening of Harwood Avenue to 4 lanes from Woodcock Avenue to Taunton Road; and

•

Widening of Rossland Road to 4 lanes across the Town of Ajax.

5.3.3 Scenario 3 – Current Planning Scenario 3 includes all the projects identified in Scenario 2 and those initiated by the Town as part of the 2013 TMP Update. The following projects are included in Scenario 3: •

Realignment of Shoal Point Road and its further extension north of Bayly Street;

•

Connection of Williamson Drive between Harwood Avenue and Thackery Drive (2013 TMP);

•

Extension of Clements Road west of Green Court across Duffins Creek to Church Street;

•

Extension of Hunt Street from McKenzie Avenue to O’Brien Court (2013 TMP), and subsequently extend Finley Avenue to Frankcom Street;

•

Closure of the Church Street connection from the hydro corridor north of Taunton Road to Concession Road 5 (2013 TMP); and

•

Widening of Church Street to 4 lanes between Kingston Road and Rossland Road (2013 TMP).

5.4 Assessment of the Population Allocations Table 24 compares system-wide network performance (metrics) for the two population allocations. The system metrics documented in Chapter 5 pertain to the Town of Ajax road network only, unless otherwise noted. The daily metrics are calculated by multiplying the p.m. peak hour outputs by a factor of 10.0. This is based on the assumption that the p.m. peak hour represents nearly 10% of the daily traffic.

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Ajax Transportation Master Plan Update February 2013 – Final Report

Table 24: System Metrics, Step 1 of Network Development

System Metrics

Daily Vehicle Kilometres Traveled (VKT) Daily VKT per capita Daily Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT) Lane Kilometres (v/c ratio >0.9) Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions (kt)

2006 Model

2031 LTTS Population Scenario 1 Scenario 3 – Status Scenario 2 – – Current Quo / Base 2007 TMP Planning Case

2031 Town of Ajax Population Scenario 1 Scenario 3 – – Status Scenario 2 Current Quo / Base – 2007 TMP Planning Case

1,717,700

2,652,540

2,672,600

2,681,860

2,664,600

2,685,540

2,685,600

18.20

19.27

19.41

19.48

19.36

19.51

19.51

38,020

57,800

56,890

56,650

58,120

57,380

56,540

13.9%

18.6%

16.2%

15.0%

17.9%

16.3%

15.8%

180.40

241.00

241.70

242.70

242.40

243.10

243.50

Scenario 1 = Base Case; Scenario 2 = 2007 TMP; Scenario 3 = 2007 TMP + additional projects The population allocation proposed by the Town assigns a significantly higher population in the northeast as opposed to the 2008 Long Term Transit Strategy (LTTS). This encourages higher overall vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT), and consequently greater VKT per capita when compared to the results from the 2008 LTTS allocation. This relatively greater spreading of the 2031 population between the two population allocations is also expected to lead to higher vehicle hours travelled (VHT), except in the case of Scenario 3, which is marginally lower. Of note, under both the population allocation scenarios as new road projects are added in each successive scenario (Scenario 1 to Scenario 3) the VKT in the network increases marginally, while dropping the VHT. This is to be expected in the 2031 network, where commuters will optimize their trip time instead of trip distance. Additionally, traffic headed to and from areas beyond the Town of Ajax is also likely to divert onto these new and/or widened roads within the Town’s boundary in an effort to utilize this additional capacity. In summary, as additional road projects are added to the network (Scenario 2 and 3), the total and per capita VKT projected in the Town is expected to increase, under both population allocations. This increase in VKT is expected to be offset by a reduction in VHT and subsequently lower congestion on the network.

5.5 Assessment of the 2007 TMP (Scenario 2) As noted earlier, not all of the projects recommended in the 2007 TMP were included in this network, since some of them were also identified as issues to be re-examined as part of this update. Further, the primary purpose of studying the 2007 TMP’s network is to understand and document whether the earlier recommendations were still appropriate in terms of relieving system congestion and supporting growth, given the different population allocation adopted by the Town. Thus, while not a complete representation of the 2007 TMP, this network is a close replica of the previous recommendations and serves the purpose of this assessment. As seen in Table 24, Scenario 2 encourages higher VKT (0.1 higher daily VKT per capita) for the Town of Ajax population allocation to that proposed by the LTTS, and consequently produces greater emissions (1.4kt). This marginal increase in VKT and emissions is offset by a reduction in system-wide congestion (lane kilometres with v/c > 0.9). When compared to the Base Case network, Scenario 2 reduces system congestion (based on the drop in VHT and lane kilometres with v/c > 0.9) under both population allocations. Figure 18 shows v/c ratios for the Base 45

Case and 2007 TMP network scenarios, for the Town of Ajax population allocation. A similar v/c ratio pattern is also observed using the LTTS population allocation. Figure 18: 2031 Status Quo/Base Case (Scenario 1) 2007 TMP (Scenario 2)

Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratio Free flow: V/C = V/ C =0.9

2031 Status Quo / Base Case

2007 TMP (Scenario 2)

(Scenario 1) In summary, the 2007 TMP is supportive of the Town’s future expansion and multi-modal goal by recommending a number of 4 lane widenings, which would reduce congestion, aid transit service and encourage active modes of transportation.

5.6 Initial Assessment and Identification of the Potential List of Projects for the Current TMP Update The three networks identified above were tested against four system metrics (with results shown in Table 24), which was supplemented with the Town of Ajax’s input to arrive at a potential list of projects. These projects were used in Step 2 of the network development process to optimize the system. Figure 19 shows the process used in developing the potential project list.

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Ajax Transportation Master Plan Update February 2013 – Final Report

Figure 19: Process of Initial Assessment and Identification of Potential Projects

Using the Town of Ajax’s population allocation, Table 24 shows that Scenario 2 and 3 would result in a reduction in VHT and less congestion (lane kilometres [v/c>0.9]) on the system, when compared to the Base Case (Scenario 1). It will achieve all this while increasing daily VKT by less than 1%. Thus, from a system performance perspective, all of the projects listed under Scenario 2 and Scenario 3 have the potential to improve future transportation performance, either individually or in combination with one another. Presented in Table 25 is each individual project’s assessment and status, where “I” represents to be included, “T” represents “to be tested”, and “E” is “to be excluded”, in Step 2 of the network development exercise. Of the three categories only the “included” and “tested” projects were carried to Step 2 of the network development exercise. The “included” projects represent those initiatives that have a majority consensus and were used to start the first iteration of the network development in an effort to streamline the process. Of note, these projects were not exempted from a detailed evaluation by virtue of their “included” status, which is documented in Section 5.8 of this report. In contrast to the “included” projects, the “excluded” projects represent those initiatives that were deemed to provide limited transportation benefits when weighed against the costs associated with their implementation. Thus, these projects were eliminated in this initial assessment and not carried forward to Step 2 of the network development exercise. This did not however exempt them from a detailed evaluation and assessment for establishing the rationale for their exclusion, which is presented following Table 25. 47

Table 25: Project Assessment and Status Project Easterly extension of Achilles Road to Audley Road, and potentially further east to Lake Ridge Road

Assessment • • • •

Extend Audley Road to future extension of Achilles Road and over Highway 401 to Kingston Road

Widening of Harwood Avenue to 4 lanes from Woodcock Avenue to Taunton Road Widen Rossland Road to 4 lanes across the Town of Ajax

Realignment of Shoal Point Road and its further extension north of Bayly Street to Achilles Road

Connection of Williamson Drive between Harwood Avenue and Thackery Drive

Extension of Clements Road west of Green Court to Church Street

Extension of Hunt Street from McKenzie Avenue to O’Brien Court

Extension of Finley Avenue from Bayly Street to 48

Could provide relief to Bayly Street between Salem Road and Audley Road; Supports the completion of a mid-block collector system; and Provides access to future development proposals.

Status in Step 2

I

Provides continuous arterial connection north and south of Highway 401; Expected to be costly to cross Highway 401; and Expected to carry approximately 7,000 Annual Daily Traffic (ADT) at peak point, relieving Lake Ridge Road and Salem Road.

I

• •

Could provide relief to Salem Road and Westney Road; and Widening would support urbanization of the area and transit operations.

T

•

Will support the future population growth in the north east quadrant of the Town; and Potential to provide relief to Kingston Road and Taunton Road, while improving transit operations.

T

•

• • • •

• •

Expected to carry approximately 3,000 ADT; Significant environmental costs; Could provide relief to intersection of Bayly Street and Salem Road; and Competing and less costly alternative available in Audley Road. Expected to carry approximately 6,000 ADT; Provides limited relief to Taunton Road and Rossland Road; Expensive to cross railway-tracks; Supports the completion of a mid-block collector system, albeit at a very high cost due to the railway tracks; Potential to encourage traffic infiltration; and Could provide active transportation and transit connection.

• • •

Expected to carry approximately 6,000 ADT; Significant environmental costs; and Provides limited relief to Bayly Street.

E

•

Expected to carry approximately 8,000 ADT at the peak point; Provides a relief conduit for traffic from the Ajax GO Transit station parking lot; Provides access to heavy industrial uses; and Provides relief to Bayly Street between Westney Road and Harwood Avenue.

I

Expected to carry approximately 400 two-way vehicles in the p.m. peak hour

I

• • • • •

• • • •

E

E

Ajax Transportation Master Plan Update February 2013 – Final Report

Project Frankcom Street

Assessment • • •

• Elimination of Church Street north of Taunton Road Church Street widening to 4 lanes from Rossland Road to Kingston Road

• • •

Status in Step 2

Provides a relief conduit for traffic from the Ajax GO Transit station parking lot; Provides access to heavy industrial uses; and Provides relief to Westney Road and, together with the Hunt Street Extension, provides an alternative to the Bayly/Westney route to and from the GO Station. Very low volumes (300 vehicles two-way in the p.m. peak hour) forecasted north of Taunton Road; and Sufficient capacity available on Westney Road to accommodate displaced traffic.

E

The widening is expected to provide relief to Church Street, at least up to Delaney Street; and Supports transit service on Church Street (Route # 232).

T

5.6.1 Shoal Point Road Extension North of Bayly Street and Realignment (Excluded Project) The northern terminus of Shoal Point Road is presently at the intersection with Bayly Street. Prior planning documents had considered realigning Shoal Point Road and extending the road north to Achilles Road. As part of this TMP Update, the realignment and extension of Shoal Point Road has been studied. Additionally, Audley Road is planned to be extended north over Highway 401 to an intersection on Kingston Road. Achilles Road would be extended east to Audley Road and then further east to Lake Ridge Road. The TMP Update analysis considered the merit of the Shoal Point Road realignment and extension as well as the merit of the Audley Road extension. The potential realignment and extension of Shoal Point Road, as well as the extension of Audley Road and Achilles Road, are shown in Figure 20. Shoal Point Road is a Type “C” arterial road. The realignment and extension of Shoal Point Road has been promoted as a way to provide some relief to the already congested intersection of Bayly Street and Salem Road by allowing vehicles to use Achilles Road and Shoal Point Road to avoid this busy intersection. The realignment and extension also could facilitate further development in this part of the town. Shoal Point Road is not planned to cross Highway 401 and would end at Achilles Road if it were extended.

49

Figure 20: Potential Shoal Point Road Realignment and Extension and Audley Road Extension

A number of residents as well as business representatives and developers from the Shoal Point area attended the public open house and submitted written comment letters. The comments received from these sources were overwhelmingly against realignment and extension of the road. The Toronto and Region Conservation Authority submitted a letter urging the protection of the Provincially Significant Wetlands by not realigning or extending the road. One letter was received on behalf of a developer who is in favour of the realignment. The Regional Municipality of Durham submitted comments in favour of realignment and extension of Shoal Point Road.

5.6.1.1 Analysis of the Extension of Shoal Point Road The Shoal Point Road extension was tested in the transportation model by extending it north to Achilles Road, with no Audley Road extension north to Kingston Road. Under this scenario, the extension is expected to carry only 260 two way p.m. peak hour traffic or 3,000 ADT, by 2031. Figure 21 presents a volume difference plot depicting a shift in traffic due to extending Shoal Point Road to Achilles Road (red = increase in volume due to implementing the extension, and green = reduction in traffic volume). As seen in Figure 21, the extension is expected to present short term relief for Salem Road south of Achilles Road and Bayly Street between Salem Road and Shoal Point Road. A similar pattern can be expected in the northbound direction in the a.m. peak hour, with the Achilles Road and Salem 50

Ajax Transportation Master Plan Update February 2013 – Final Report

Road intersection acting as a “pinch point”. It is also expected to be extremely challenging to extend Shoal Point Road north of Highway 401 to make a meaningful connection to an existing major north south corridor. Figure 21: Volume Difference Plot Showing the Impact of Shoal Point Road

The model tested two other scenarios for this corridor. First, the extension of only Audley Road to the proposed extension of Achilles Road, and further on to Kingston Road; and second, the inclusion of both the Audley Road (up to Kingston Road) and Shoal Point Road (up to Achilles Road) extensions. Under the first scenario, the Audley Road extension is expected to carry close to 6,000 Average Daily Traffic (ADT), providing greater transportation network benefits as it would link the parts of the town north and south of Highway 401. In the second scenario, the Shoal Point Road extension is expected to carry around 2,000 ADT and the Audley Road extension is expected to attract nearly 4,000 ADT. Evaluation of the Extension of Shoal Point Road •

•

Does the link support a sustainable transportation network? (Negative) o

As the link would terminate at Achilles Road and not cross Highway 401, it does not serve a network function and does not reduce the trip lengths or travel times significantly. The link would open lands to development but would not increase network connectivity.

o

It is recognized that the Achilles Road / Shoal Point Road extension would provide an alternate route around the busy Salem Road / Bayly Street intersection. However, the Shoal Point Road extension is planned as a Type C arterial, designed to carry local traffic and not regional commuter traffic diverting to avoid congestion. The Audley Road extension between Bayly Street and Achilles Road is planned as a Type B arterial, designed for regional traffic, and is the more appropriate route to relieve traffic related to the Salem Road / Bayly Street intersection.

Does it support a vibrant Uptown and Downtown? (Neutral) o

This link is not in either of these two priority areas. 51

•

Does it promote a livable and healthy community? (Neutral) o

•

Does it protect environmental amenities? (Negative) o

•

Requires new road construction though an environmentally-sensitive site or realignment through a greenfield site.

Cost (Average) o

•

Active transportation linkages could be made along this link, however they would be through a greenfield site with little connectivity to other areas.

Provided that construction in the environmentally-sensitive part of the area is avoided, the costs for constructing Shoal Point Road north of Bayly would not be expected to be more than a typical road construction. However, in order to avoid the environmentally sensitive areas, Shoal Point Road would need to be realigned, thereby increasing the total cost of the project.

Stakeholder and Public Input (Oppose) o

Residents, developers and TRCA have voiced opposition to the extension through public comments at the PICs and through written letters. Durham Region, through written comments, proposed to keep this extension in the Official Plan as it would provide relief to the intersection of Bayly Street and Salem Road.

It should be noted that the proposed deletion of the Shoal Point Road extension is the subject of a pending application to amend the Durham Regional Official Plan by Loblaw Properties Limited (the affected landowner). Part of the rationale was that the extension would result in additional conflicts between automobile traffic, and truck traffic to and from the regional food distribution warehouse. Given the low volume (3,000 ADT) expected to be attracted to the Shoal Point Road extension, the possibility of extending Audley Road up to Kingston Road, public opposition to the extension and the environmental costs of extending and realigning into a greenfield site, this extension was dropped from the potential list of projects. Recommendation Remove the Shoal Point Road extension from the Town’s Official Plan. removing this link from the Regional Official Plan.

Request Durham Region to consider

5.6.1.2 Analysis of the Realignment of Shoal Point Road South of Bayly Street The realignment of Shoal Point Road has been considered separately. As reported in Section 2.5.3, the main concern regarding the realignment of the intersection is the difficulty of adding eastbound lanes, particularly an eastbound right turning lane, given the intersection’s proximity to Carruthers Creek. Durham Region guidelines suggest adding a right turn lane for an intersection experiencing over 50 right turn movements in the peak hour. Existing conditions analysis concluded that, although there are more than 50 right turns in the peak hour, the intersection functions at a satisfactory level of service and the road does not need to be realigned to provide a right turn lane to accommodate traffic volumes. Using traffic volumes extracted from the travel demand model, this intersection was analyzed to determine whether or not realignment would be warranted in a future horizon year. The analysis suggested that realignment was not warranted (forecast v/c ratio of 0.87 in the p.m. peak hour without realignment). The widening of Bayly Street east of Shoal Point Road, the widening of Highway 401 and changes to population and employment distribution in Ajax all are expected to change traffic distribution and volumes and to positively impact the operational performance of this intersection. The intersection should be capable of accommodating forecast traffic volumes at its existing 52

Ajax Transportation Master Plan Update February 2013 – Final Report

location with its existing intersection layout through optimization of signal timings and phasing. Further detailed Synchro analysis of 2021 traffic volumes at this intersection, documented in Section 5.11, also concluded that realignment was not necessary from a traffic volume perspective. Evaluation of the Realignment •

Does the link support a sustainable transportation network? (Neutral) o

•

Does it support a vibrant Uptown and Downtown? (Neutral) o

•

•

Active transportation linkages could be made along this link, however they would be through a greenfield site with little additional connectivity to other areas.

Does it protect environmental amenities? (Neutral) o

Requires new road construction in an area planned for development.

o

It should be noted that the Shoal Point Road realignment may have a potential negative effect on the environment, since the required gradual horizontal curvature required to provide for its planned Type C arterial road function has the potential to result in impacts on the Warbler's Swamp at the south end of the realignment. Warbler's Swamp is a Provincially Significant Wetland.

Cost (Average) o

•

This link is not in either of these two priority areas.

Does it promote a livable and healthy community? (Neutral) o

•

The realignment would replace an existing link in the road network.

Road construction costs would not be expected to be more than a typical road construction.

Stakeholder and Public Input (Mixed) o

Residents, developers and TRCA have voiced opposition to the realignment through public comments at the PICs and through written letters. One developer has submitted comments in favour of the realignment, stating that the developer relied upon the realignment when it acquired the property. Durham Region has commented in favour of the realignment to improve safety and to accommodate a right turn lane at this intersection, which cannot be constructed at present due to the intersection’s proximity to Carruthers Creek.

Recommendation Remove the realignment from the Official Plan. Request Durham Region to remove the realignment from the Regional Official Plan.

5.6.2 Williamson Drive Extension between Harwood Avenue and Thackery Drive (Excluded Project) An extension of Williamson Drive between Harwood Avenue and Thackery Drive, as depicted in Figure 22 was studied in detail. The link would connect two residential neighbourhoods and would provide opportunities for transit service as well as cycling and walking opportunities. The link could be a secondary connection for access to Notre Dame Catholic Secondary School and J Clarke Richardson Collegiate, just south of the proposed connection.

53

Constructing the link would require crossing an existing rail line. Preliminary estimates for the cost of constructing an overpass of the rail line ranged from $10 million to $25 million. This extension was modeled as a two lane mid-block collector with a capacity of 500 vehicles/hour/lane. The model projects a total p.m. peak hour volume of close to 550 vehicles for both directions combined, or 6,000 ADT. This extension is also expected to provide limited relief to Taunton Road and Rossland Road, as shown in the volume difference plot (red = increase in volume due to implementing the extension, and green = reduction in traffic volume) presented in Figure 23. There are three primary concerns with extending Williamson Drive across the railway track and connecting into Harwood Avenue that excluded it from the potential project list. First, the cost associated with crossing the railway corridor and the limited benefit the extension actually provides based on the p.m. peak hour volumes; second, the limited relief to Taunton Road and Rossland Road; and third, the possibility of encouraging neighborhood traffic infiltration, as shown in Figure 24.

Figure 22: Williamson Drive Extension between Harwood Avenue and Thackery Drive

54

Ajax Transportation Master Plan Update February 2013 – Final Report

Figure 23: Volume Difference Plot Showing the Impact of the Williamson Drive Extension

A select link analysis was undertaken to determine the origin and destination of the trips expected to use the Williamson Drive extension, and consequently the level of infiltration. The analysis indicated that nearly 25% (138 trips out of a total of 550 trips) of the trips expected to use the extension will either be destined to or originate from traffic zones not along the corridor. Evaluation •

Does the link support a sustainable transportation network? (Neutral) o

•

Does it support a vibrant Uptown and Downtown? (Neutral) o

•

Testing this link in the 2031 travel demand model revealed no significant reduction in volume to capacity ratios on the parallel roads of Taunton Road and Rossland Road. Constructing the link has the potential to encourage short cutting traffic and speeding through the neighbourhood. The new link could support new bike lanes, sidewalks and could be used by transit vehicles, increasing community connectivity east and west of the rail line. It should be noted that the westerly extension of Williamson Drive from Ravenscroft Road to Church Street has been deleted from the Town’s Official Plan.

This link is not in either of these two priority areas.

Does it promote a livable and healthy community? (Positive) o

The link would reduce trip length between the two neighbourhoods separated by the existing gap. Construction of the link would provide an active transportation link and transit link, which could benefit access to schools. It should be noted that these neighbourhoods are built out and current traffic operations in these neighbourhoods are adequate.

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•

Does it protect environmental amenities? (Neutral) o

•

Cost (High) o

•

Requires new road construction on a greenfield site, however, construction would be in the planned right-of-way.

Connecting the link also would require crossing an existing rail line. Preliminary estimates on the cost to build a bridge structure crossing the rail line ranged from $10 million to $25 million.

Stakeholder and Public Input (Oppose) o

Stakeholder input from Durham Region and Durham Region Transit recommended maintaining the link in the Official Plan, in order to provide vehicular, transit and active transportation connections.

o

Public input received through the consultation process indicated that the public opposes construction of this link and wishes to preserve the two distinct neighbourhoods without an additional connection for shortcutting traffic.

Recommendation Based on the high cost and limited benefit to the overall transportation network, remove this link from the Official Plan for vehicular traffic. Request Durham Region to consider removing this link from the Regional Official Plan. Figure 24: Select Link Analysis of Williamson Drive

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Ajax Transportation Master Plan Update February 2013 – Final Report

5.6.3 Extension of Clements Road (Excluded Project) Clements Road has been proposed to be extended west from O’Brien Court, across Duffins Creek to intersect with Church Street. The general vicinity of the proposed road segment is shown in Figure 25. Constructing the road segment would provide an alternative to travel on Bayly Street, which experiences congestion in peak travel hours. It would provide an additional access to the Rouge Valley Health System Hospital near the intersection of Clements Road and Harwood Avenue, could be used as an alternative escape route from the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station and would provide better visibility for businesses located along Clements Road. The link also could be used for active transportation purposes. A major drawback to constructing the link is the crossing of Duffins Creek. The new road construction would be about 700 metres in length, with over 300 metres needed for a bridge structure to cross Duffins Creek. Considerable work would need to be undertaken before construction would begin and a number of environmental remediation measures may be needed, even if the link were constructed solely for active transportation. Active transportation links presently exist along the lakefront to the south and along Bayly Street to the north. Figure 25: Extension of Clements Road between O’Brien Court and Church Street

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This extension was modeled as a two lane road with a capacity of 500 vehicles/hour/lane. The model forecasts close to 600 vehicles (two-way traffic) in the p.m. peak hour or 6,000 ADT on the extension, with v/c ratios over 1.0 in the eastbound direction in the p.m. peak hour. The extension is expected to provide some relief to Bayly Street (238 vehicles both directions combined), as can be seen in the volume difference plot (red = increase in volume due to implementing the extension, and green = reduction in traffic volume) shown in Figure 26 and consequently a 9% drop in v/c ratios from 1.1 to 1.0. Figure 26: Volume Difference Plot Showing the Impact of the Clements Road Extension

However, this relief is limited to a very small section of Bayly Street because the extension will be used predominantly by trips headed to and from east of Westney Road and south of Lake Driveway. Thus, long distance trips on Bayly Street will see no benefit from diverting onto the extension. This limited relief will also be gained at significant construction and environmental costs due to the need to cross Duffins Creek, and would also potentially warrant upgrading Church Street (south of Bayly Street) to support such an influx of traffic. Given these limited benefits and high construction costs, the Clements Road extension was excluded from the potential project list. Evaluation •

Does the link support a sustainable transportation network? (Neutral) o

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Does it support a vibrant Uptown and Downtown? (Neutral) o

•

This link is not in either of these two priority areas.

Does it promote a livable and healthy community? (Positive) o

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Traffic congestion on Bayly Street would be expected to drop from a volume to capacity ratio of 1.2 to 1.0. Even with this link, Bayly Street would remain over capacity, as it serves a longer distance regional function. It is recognized that maintaining this link would improve network connectivity between Pickering and Ajax and could serve commercial vehicle traffic between the two industrial areas.

Active transportation linkages could be constructed along this link, but at high cost and perhaps at the expense of the environmental integrity of the area.

Ajax Transportation Master Plan Update February 2013 – Final Report

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Does it protect environmental amenities? (Negative) o

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Cost (High) o

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The road link would be constructed through an environmentally-sensitive area.

The extension would have to cross Duffins Creek and a sensitive environmental area. Bridge structures would be needed and extensive environmental analysis would need to be conducted prior to construction. Construction costs would be significantly more than a typical road construction project.

Stakeholder and Public Input (Mixed) o

Durham Region recommends protecting for this link, noting that it is the only potential new arterial road link parallel to Bayly Street south of Highway 401.

o

The City of Pickering shows this link in its Official Plan and would like to continue to protect for it.

o

TRCA seeks to preserve the Provincially Significant Wetlands and opposes construction of this link

o

The general sentiment from the public was opposition to construction of the link; however, one voice was heard in favour of the link.

Recommendation Due to the potential negative impacts to the environment, high cost of construction and limited benefit to traffic flow, remove this link from the Town’s Official Plan. Request Durham Region to consider removing this link from the Regional Official Plan. Request the City of Pickering to consider removing this link from the City’s Official Plan.

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