3D Printing ready for take-off?

www.aerosociety.com 3D Printing ready for take-off? June 2015 Fighting a Cyber battle of Britain Resilience – Recovering pilots’ skills cleaning up...
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3D Printing ready for take-off?

June 2015

Fighting a Cyber battle of Britain Resilience – Recovering pilots’ skills cleaning up space junk

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Additive or disruptive? Like UAVs (or drones in the increasingly acceptable parlance) there seems no letup in the additive manufacturing (3D printing) revolution — with new applications, uses and ideas being found all the time for this fledging technology. Indeed, while this year Rolls-Royce is set to fly the biggest-ever 3D printed metallic component as part of a Trent engine test, additive manufactured parts are already being used on production aircraft. Challenges still remain, such as certification for structural and flight-critical parts, but it is interesting to ponder whether the trajectory of 3D printed parts will mirror that of composites where, after 50 years of incremental growth in their use, we now have seen the first composite airliners enter service. Or, will the technology path follow that of smart phones and tablet computers — where explosive consumer demand has led to them becoming almost a standard part of flight and cabin crew’s equipment? But beyond that there is a bigger question — the 3D printed pachyderm in the hangar, if you will. Today, the OEMs make much of their money through aftermarket support, knowing that a customer will have to buy spares over the active life of the aircraft or face it being grounded. Yet 3D printing may potentially upend all that. What happens if an airline could (in theory) just 3D print out the parts it needs, there and then? Will every MRO station have banks of 3D printers? What happens to the sophisticated inventory management systems? And what happens to OEMs if the aftermarket spares market becomes a cottage industry? Will they still be able to make money as effectively owners of ‘digital 3D blueprint’ IPs? Will the original purchase price of aircraft have to increase to compensate? The music and video industry, for example, has already seen its business model disrupted completely by digital file sharing. How long, then, before the first 3D printed part from a ‘pirated’ CAD file appears on an aircraft?

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10 Antenna Howard Wheeldon looks at the USAF’s 48th Fighter Wing at RAF Lakenheath.

58 The Last Word Keith Hayward on the business prospects for the 2015 Paris Air Show.

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21 Paris show time A preview of the Paris Air Show on 15-21 June.

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Cleaning up space European initiatives to tackle the space debris issue.

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32 Resilience – recovering pilots’ lost flying skills In this hard-hitting piece Captain Richard De Crespigny argues there are no easy shortcuts to mastering an aircraft.

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NEWS IN BRIEF

Alliances of convenience The global airline alliance market assessed — who benefits the most?

Plane speaking: Sir Michael Marshall On the record with the Executive Chairman of the Marshall Group.

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SkyTeam

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Fighting a cyber Battle of Britain As with 75 years ago, speed of response is critical to stopping the new cyber raids of the 21st century.

Richard De Crespigny

Contents

3D printing − ready for take-off How additive manufacturing looks set to revolutionise the aerospace industry.

MoD

Volume 42 Number 6 June 2015

Online

Additional features and content are available to view online on www.media.aerosociety.com/ aerospace-insight Including: Print your own spaceship, All-seeing eye, Fighting a cyber Battle of Britain, NASA Titan sub concept, In the May issue of AEROSPACE, Illusions of safety.

JUNE 2015

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Radome INTELLIGENCE / ANALYSIS / COMMENT

Fuel savings Analysis of fuel efficiency using the 'cruiserfeeder' concept just to transfer fuel, shows between 11-23% saving for every 250 passengers over distances beyond 6,000nm.

Feeder aircraft

NLR

Moving passengers into smaller aircraft in flight would create an airborne 'hub and spoke' system. Smaller aircraft at airports would also cut noise and emissions near airports. This illustration also shows ducted fan quadrotors — suggesting a VTOL capability to deliver passengers directly to city centres.

NEWS IN BRIEF ?????? ???? ???? ??? ??? ????? ????? ??????

AEROSPACE

NLR studies ‘Cruiser-feeder’

?????? ???? ???? ??? ??? ????? ????? ??????

?????? ???? ???? ??? ??? An EU research ????? ????? ?????? project, involving nine European universities and research institutes and headed by the

Dutch aerospace body NLR, has concluded a study into 'cruiser-feeder' operations for civil air transport. The project RECREATE ?????? ???? ???? ??? ??? (Research for a CRuiser Enabled Air Transport Environment) found that using air-to-air refuelling techniques, as used by military aircraft, could save up to 20% in fuel for airliners. The concept ????? ????? ?????? would see airliners take-off with enough fuel to reach a tanker at cruise altitude, before being topped up for an???? onward flight. ?????? ???? ??? ??? A reduced take-off weight would cut fuel in the take-off and climb phase. Further in the future, ????? ????? the RECREATE project came up with a more radical concept using nuclear-powered 'cruiser' motherships that would exchange passengers and luggage in flight — making for an ultra-efficient air 'metro' transport system.

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Tanker motherships For long-haul flights, airborne tankers with enough fuel to refuel five or six airliners would either orbit at designated areas at the start of big airways (and away from population centres) or could conceivably accompany aircraft in a 'trail'. Meanwhile, the more radical future proposal would see nuclear-powered giant 'cruiser' aircraft constantly shuttling between major hubs and swapping in and out passenger pods with smaller feeder aircraft.

De-risking civil air-to-air refuelling

The researchers admit that: “For the nuclear cruiser concept, it is concluded that neither airworthiness nor acceptance of the idea by the general public is within sight.” Certification of the airborne transfer of passengers, cargo and waste would also be a major challenge.

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Researchers from Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW), part of the RECREATE project used flight simulators and pilots to test the feasibility of civil air-to-air refuelling. The RECREATE project noted: “From the initial flight simulation experiment, safe refuelling operations are judged as feasible by the pilots involved.” www.aerosociety.com

JUNE 2015

NLR

Passenger pods

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Radome AEROSPACE

GENERAL AVIATION

X-47B bows out with first UAV air-to-air refuelling

Falcon 5X on track for June roll-out Dassault is set to roll-out its latest large-cabin business jet, the Falcon 5X, this month on the 2 June. First flight of the

DEFENCE

On 8 May, an unmanned Progress ISS supply ship burned up on re-entry over the Pacific. Launched ten days previously, mission control in Russia lost control of the craft and it entered an irrecoverable spin and slow descent.

AIR TRANSPORT

A400M on test flight crashes in Seville destined for delivery to Turkey in June and the crew was reported to have declared an emergency soon after take-off, before it crashed north of the airport. As a precaution, Germany, Malaysia, Turkey and the UK have temporarily suspended A400M operations.

Rolls-Royce wins record Emirates $9·2bn order

Rolls-Royce

On 9 May an Airbus Defence and Space A400M transport on flight test at the manufacturer's facility in Seville, Spain, crashed shortly after takeoff, killing four crew members and seriously injuring another two. The aircraft, MSN23, was

Progress resupply spacecraft lost

US Navy

Northrop Grumman’s X-47B UCAV demonstrator has now successfully completed the first-ever aerial refuelling between a UAV and a manned tanker aircraft — receiving some 4,000lb of fuel. The X-47B rendezvoused with an Omega Air 707 tanker off the coast of Maryland on 22 April, before using its sensors to contact the tanker’s drogue, using its retractable IFR probe. The X-47B will now be retired to a museum.

Falcon 5X is set for the second half of 2015, with certification planned for 2016 and first deliveries in 2017.

Rolls-Royce has won its largest ever order to provide Trent 900 engines and TotalCare support for Emirates airline. The order, which is worth $9·2bn, will power 50 Airbus A380s that will enter service from 2016.

NEWS IN BRIEF Europe’s MIDCAS (Mid Air Collison Avoidance System) consortium has announced that it has successfully completed flight test and simulation campaigns. The tests, in conjunction with the European Defence Agency (EDA) saw a modified Alenia Sky-Y UAV perform detect and avoid tests with manned aircraft targets, using co-operative and non-cooperative sensors and systems.

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Colombian airline Avianca has firmed up a $11bn deal for 100 Airbus A320neo family aircraft: “the largest single order ever made in Latin America's aviation history,” according to Airbus. In the wake of the UK General Election, the UK’s The Sun newspaper has reported that the UK is to acquire 12 Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft in a $2bn order.

Space X has conducted a launch pad abort test of its Dragon human-rated capsule at Cape Canaveral. The test, on 6 May, saw the unmanned capsule use six thrusters to accelerate to 100mph in 1·2 seconds, reaching 5,000ft before parachutes deployed to return it to earth. A small UAV was discovered on the roof of an office building used by the Japanese Prime

Minister on 22 April. Police say that the UAV tested positive for very small traces of radiation. It has been reported that Airbus Group is to take legal action over allegations that the German intelligence service helped the US NSA conduct industrial espionage. German media has reported that the country’s secret service BND assisted the NSA in finding out whether any

European companies were breaking trade embargos. An as-yet-unnamed joint Russian-Chinese leasing company is to be established and will acquire a fleet of 100 Sukhoi Superjet 100s. The US State Department has officially approved the sale of 17 Bell/Boeing V-22 Ospreys to Japan. NASA’s Messenger probe has ended its Mercury

DEFENCE

AIR TRANSPORT

Exodus from AEA over ‘protectionism’

Rafale locks on to another export win French Ministry of Defence

Qatar is to acquire 24 Dassault Rafales in a deal worth €6·3bn. The win, signed on 4 May, following Rafale orders from Egypt and India earlier this year, also includes training and support, as well as MBDA Exocet, Scalp and Meteor missiles. Meanwhile, a French Air Force Dassault Rafale B has carried out the first guided firing of the MBDA Meteor BVRAAM missile in a test on 28 April.

AEROSPACE

communication systems are connected to the same Wi-Fi routers accessible by passengers. The cockpit systems are protected by firewalls but the GAO interviewed four cybersecurity experts who say that such safeguards could be hacked into for malicious purposes.

mission by impacting the planet in a planned crash. Messenger was launched in 2004 and had run out of fuel.

sidestick’ technology when it enters service. The active sidesticks, which enhance situational awareness for pilots, will be supplied by UTC Aerospace.

The Airbus Group has selected Pau, in south east France, as the location for production of its E-Fan 2.0/4.0 family of electric GA aircraft.

Bombardier has confirmed that Swiss will be the launch customer for its CSeries — with the first delivery set for 2016.

Russia’s latest single-aisle airliner, the Irkut MC21, will be the first civil airliner fitted with ‘active

Norway has taken over the lead responsibility for the NATO Baltic Air Policing mission rotation which lasts

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Blue Origin breaks cover with suborbital test Secretive private company, Blue Origin, headed by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, has conducted the first suborbital test flight of its spacecraft, New Shephard. The test took place in Texas on 29 April with the craft reaching 307,000ft, before the crew capsule separated and landed back on Earth. Though the first stage propulsion module (pictured at separation) was lost this time, it is intended to be reusable and to make controlled vertical landings.

Blue Origin

A report from the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) claims that some modern commercial aircraft designs, such as the Boeing 787, Airbus A350 and A380, may be at risk from cyber attacks because the cockpit avionics and

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Etihad and Qatar Airways. With these departures, the AEA has 24 members left. Gulf airlines are significant investors in the airlines that have walked out, with Qatar holding 10% of BA and Iberia parent group IAG and Etihad holding 29·2% of Air Berlin and 49% of Alitalia shares.

SPACEFLIGHT

GAO warns of airliner cyber attack risk

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Air Berlin and Italy’s flag carrier Alitalia are to join British Airways and Iberia in leaving the airline industry group Association of European Airlines (AEA). They cite the group’s increasing alleged protectionist stance to competition from Gulf airlines like Emirates,

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until the end of August. It is joined by Belgium, Italy and the UK. NASA is celebrating 25 years of operation of the Hubble Space Telescope. Launched in 1990, Hubble was upgraded and repaired several times in orbit by astronauts. Hubble has enabled scientists to determine the age of the universe as 13·8bn years, confirm the existance of dark matter and of black holes in the heart of most www.aerosociety.com

galaxies. NASA plans to launch its successor, the James Webb Space Telescope, in 2018. Aircraft management and charter specialist Jet Aviation is to add two Gulfstream G650ER business jets to its fleet. The aircraft will be based in Hong Kong. The FAA has revealed new plans to trial commercial UAVs including in urban areas and beyond line of

sight (BLOS) operations. Its ‘Pathfinder’ projects include CNN using UAVs for newsgathering, PrecisionHawk trialling them for precision agriculture and BNSF Railroad testing UAVs for railway inspection. American Airlines was forced to cancel flights on 28 April because of a faulty iPad app used by flight crews to view flight plans. The airline went paperless in 2013. JUNE 2015

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Radome DEFENCE

PC-24 flies

Poland picks SAMs and helicopters

Pilatus Aircraft

GENERAL AVIATION

Pilatus Aircraft’s new ‘super versatile jet’ the PC-24 has made its first flight from the manufacturer’s facility in Buochs, Switzerland. The aircraft performed a 55-minute flight and reached 10,000ft. Certification is set for 2017.

An-178 makes first flight On 7 May, Ukrainian manufacturer Antonov conducted the first flight of its An-178 transport with a one-hour test flight. A development of the An-148 regional airliner, the An-178 features a rear ramp and can carry up to 18t.

Antonov

Airbus

Malaysia Airlines to sell off widebody fleet? The carrier, which suffered the loss of two 777s in 2014, is said to be selling or leasing some of its 13 777300ERs and A330-200Fs, as well as its six A380s.

It was also announced that Warsaw has also chosen the Raytheon Patriot SAM in a $5bn deal for its next missile defence system. It will acquire eight Patriot batteries. Poland is also set to accelerate its requirement for a new attack helicopter.

AEROSPACE

AIR TRANSPORT

Troubled Malaysia Airlines is reported to be set to sell off its widebody fleet including six Airbus A380s as part of a $1·7bn restructuring plan of its long-haul network.

The Polish Government has pre-selected the Airbus Helicopters H225M Caracal for a 50-aircraft multirole helicopter requirement, worth some $3bn. The H225Ms will be assembled locally and are expected to enter service in 2017.

NEWS IN BRIEF Russia is to restart production of the Tupolev Tu-160 Blackjack supersonic strategic bomber. Russia currently has 13 Tu-160s in service, which are currently being modernised into Tu-160Ms with updated avionics and weapon systems Saudi Arabian-based Arabsat has awarded a contract for two new communications satellites to Lockheed Martin. The

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contract for launching the HellasSat4/SaudiGeoSat 1 in 2018 has gone to Arianespace while SpaceX will launch the Arabsat 6A. Prince William’s new employer — the East Anglian Air Ambulance (EAAA) — has taken delivery of its latest helicopter — an Airbus Helicopters H145 T2. The EMS-configured H145 T2 is the first of its type to go into service in England, says the air ambulance

charity which operates two dedicated EMS helicopters. CFM has begun flight testing of the LEAP-1B engine for the Boeing 737 MAX, using GE's 747 engine testbed. The first flight, from Victorville, California lasted 5·5hr Flights in South America were disrupted after the Calbuco volcano in southern Chile, erupted in April spreading a large cloud of ash into the sky.

Ash from the volcano, led to three airports being closed nearby, while LAN Chile cancelled over 20 flights due to the incident.

inagurated a new ‘zero-G’ aircraft — a modified Airbus A310. The new aircraft replaces the older A300.

A ShinMaywa US-2 amphibious aircraft from the Japan Maritime Self Defence Force (JMSF) has been lost at sea following an accident. All 19 onboard were rescued from the hull. . ESA, France's CNES and Germany's DLR have

A crash of a Pakistani Army Mi-17 helicopter on 8 May in the north of the country killed four VIPs, including two ambassadors from The Philippines and Norway along with three crew. Though the Taliban claimed responsibility, officials say it was a technical fault.

SPACEFLIGHT

AIR TRANSPORT

This is the droid you are looking for

UAE reveals 2021 Mars probe mission Arab mission to the Red Planet. The probe, which is scheduled to launch in 2020, will aim to collect atmospheric data on Mars, and provide the most comprehensive climate model yet of the planet.

All Nippon Airlines

The United Arab Emirates has revealed it is planning to send a space probe to reach Mars in 2021, the 50th anniversary of the UAE’s independence. The spacecraft, named Hope, would be the first ever

YouTube

Japan’s All Nippon Airlines has revealed a special paint scheme planned for a 787-9 — with the Dreamliner to be painted

with a custom livery featuring Star Wars’ R2-D2 robot. The specially painted aircraft is part of a five-year marketing and promotion

deal between ANA and Disney and will start services in the third quarter of this year, ahead of the new Star Wars VII film.

UK police to guard airports with UAVs

DEFENCE

After an 18-month trial at Gatwick Airport by counter-terrorism experts, UK police are set to introduce UAVs to help protect the rest of London’s major airports. In addition, it has been revealed that the police will now take over investigations of illegal or improperly used UAVs from the CAA.

F-35 tests close air support credentials

A British JTAC forward air controller has successfully controlled an F-35 in a simulated close air support mission. The trial at Edwards AFB saw the current JTAC digital targeting system fielded by the UK, Rockwell Collins’ FireStorm, being used NEPAL EARTHQUAKE: Foreign Military Deployed Assets (as of 04 May 2015) to guide the F-35 onto a OVERVIEW INDIA target — certificating the The Multi-National Military Coordination Centre 13 military aircraft* large military transport aircraft C-17, Ilyushin Il-76 (IL-76), C-130 system with the aircraft. (MNMCC) is coordinating all foreign military

AEROSPACE

INFOGRAPHIC: Aviation brings relief to Nepal

assets through daily meetings. The Nepalese Army has appointed a dedicated liaison officer from the MNMCC to the National Emergency Operations Centre of the Ministry of Home Affairs.

Rolls-Royce CEO John Rishworth is to stand down in July. He will be replaced by microchip manufacturer ex-ARM Holdings head Warren East. Supersonic business jet developer Aerion, has appointed former President of Embraer Executive Jets, Ernie Edwards, as its new Chief Commercial Officer.

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The Humanitarian-Military Operations Coordination Centre (HuMOCC) was established to provide the physical space dedicated to facilitating the interface between humanitarian and military actors.

12 military helicopters 8 x medium twin-turbine transport helicopter (MI17), 4 x advanced light hHelicopter (ALH) *Data unavailable on number of aircraft types

CHINA

PAKISTAN

3 x IL-76 aircraft

3 x MI17 helicopters

4 x Lockheed C-130 Hercules (C-130)

USA

UNITED KINGDOM

1 x C-17 Globemaster III

4x V-22 Osprey multi-mission tiltrotor aircraft

RUSSIA 2 x Ilyushin IL-76 aircraft Creation date: 04 May 2015 Data source: UNDAC Feedback: [email protected] www.unocha.org www.reliefweb.int

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1 x UH-1 helicopter

CANADA 3 x CH-46 Griffon helicopters

1 x C130 aircraft

SRI LANKA 1 x C-130 aircraft

3 x Boeing CH-47 Chinook (CH47)

BANGLADESH 1 x C-130 aircraft

JUNE 2015

UN DAC

ON THE MOVE

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antenna:

Global Outlook and Analysis with HOWARD WHEELDON

RAF Lakenheath — mission focused

R

eminders, if they were still needed, that sequestration and defence budget constraint in the US is alive and well came with the shock announcement in January that the Pentagon intended to close as many as 15 military bases in Europe over the next few years. Given the extent of budget pressure over the past three years, together with the clear strategic redirection of US defence policy, perhaps a move such as this should not really have surprised. The plan will take several years to implement and it will do little to alter the military balance in terms of US capability in Europe. The need to do more with less and to increase the efficiency of operation is writ large through the proposed changes. This is not the first time that the US has cut the number of active bases in Europe but it is the most significant list of closures that we have seen over the past 20 years. It is also a timely reminder for European members of NATO that need to reconsider their diffident attitude to spending on defence and their act together. Defense Secretary, Chuck Hagel’s plan for future US basing in Europe has clearly been driven by political and military strategic considerations, just as much as it has by cost considerations. While it may be considered the reverse of the more cautionary attitude that Congress has expressed on base closures, I think that the Hagel policy does need to be taken in context with earlier Pentagon claims that 20% of the military real estate is probably surplus to requirements. From a UK perspective, positives outweigh any negatives. While the Hagel announcement said that RAF Mildenhall, Suffolk, would, along with two small bases in Cambridgeshire, close, it also confirmed there would be substantial investment and expansion in air power capability at nearby RAF Lakenheath, home of the 48th Fighter Wing of the USAF.

Future European F-35A base It is at RAF Lakenheath that the Pentagon has decided that the first two European squadrons of F-35 aircraft will now be based toward the end of the current decade. For the base this means a considerable amount of investment will be required to accommodate a significant increase in combat aircraft. The plan envisages that two squadrons,

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each comprising 24 F-35A aircraft will eventually be based there in addition to the three squadrons of F-15 Eagles and Strike Eagles already there. The decision to base the first two European F-35 squadrons at RAF Lakenheath is also very timely, particularly as it coincides with the work on infrastructure planning required to accommodate the UK fleet of F-35B STOVL variants that will be based at RAF Marham from 2018/19. Moreover, I believe that, given the close proximity of RAF Marham and RAF Lakenheath, the decision to base F-35A aircraft at Lakenheath presents a really valuable one-off opportunity for USAF and the UK F-35 force to come together and leverage its capability. The potential benefits could be enormous, ranging from trimmed costs, co-ordinated infrastructure planning and, importantly, the potential to save costs by sharing the MRO support function requirement. With no cuts planned in terms of the existing number of 67,000 USAF and other US military personnel based in Europe — predominantly in Germany, Italy and UK with smaller numbers based in Turkey, The Netherlands and Belgium and operational units serving on sovereign air bases elsewhere — no one should be left in any doubt that the Pentagon, through its large scale involvement within NATO, remains very firmly committed to European defence.

Engine shop at RAF Lakenheath.

USAF

area of RAF Lakenheath currently used for nonmilitary purposes will be developed and that F-35 operational capability is set to be achieved in 2020.

Many of the planned closures announced by the Pentagon are of smaller bases mainly in Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands. Here in the UK, the major impact will be the eventual closure of RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk, currently home to a fleet of USAF air-to-air tanker refuelling aircraft that are planned to be moved to Germany and AFSOC. Two smaller bases, RAF Alconbury and RAF Molesworth, both located in Cambridgeshire, will also close. My understanding is that RAF Mildenhall will be handed back to the MoD in 2022. Clearly, the importance of a USAF base within the local economy is hugely important. Indirect jobs created by RAF Mildenhall are put at around 1,400 by USAF and at RAF Lakenheath close to 2,220 jobs. RAF Mildenhall supports employment of around 4,400 serving officers and civilians of which just under 700 are local nationals. At RAF Lakenheath the figures are 6,500, of which 877 are local nationals. The two bases are, of course, in close proximity to each other and the impact of closure of RAF Mildenhall will be substantially lessened by the planned investment and increase in RAF Lakenheath employment. While the Hagel plan envisages a very small net reduction in active US military personnel numbers in the UK, the cost of infrastructure investment required to accommodate the two new squadrons of F-35A aircraft is estimated to be around $240m. Having recently visited the base and met with 48th Fighter Wing Commander, Colonel Robert G Novotny, my understanding is that the plan envisages no change to the existing number of three squadrons of Boeing F-15 ‘C’ and ‘E’ variants which have seen regularly active deployment in war zones, or the small number of helicopters that are held on the base. To effect what is a fairly large infrastructure requirement, the plan is that a sizable

USAF

Engineering excellence

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RAF Lakenheath is already highly invested in terms of engineering facilities, with deep engine maintenance and detailed aircraft inspection all taking place on-base. The maintenance and support facilities for Liberty Wing’s F-15C Eagles and F-15E Strike Eagles, together with the course and various training elements provided on base to support the engineers, is extremely impressive. Providing intermediate and organisational level maintenance for the three F-15 squadrons, plus aircraft deployed, my understanding is that each F-15 is stripped down for inspection approximately every 400 flight hours. Particular emphasis is placed on searching for potential hydraulic and other leaks, corrosion and airframe cracks. The 48th Aircraft Maintenance Squadron is a worldwide deployable unit. Each month, up to 30 of the two Pratt & Whitney F-15 engine variants will be inspected, repaired and tested. With more than 5,000 personnel and around 80 mission-ready fast-jet aircraft and helicopters based at RAF Lakenheath, the 48th Fighter Wing of USAF is a formidable force, justifiably proud of its long heritage based in Europe. From 1952 until the 48th moved to the former RAF bomber base at Lakenheath in 1960, the 48th had been stationed at Chaumont, France, from where it was to be given the distinction of being the only wing of the USAF to have a second designation as the ‘Statue of Liberty’ wing. In the 55 years that the 48th Fighter Wing has been based at RAF Lakenheath, its fast-jet aircraft have been involved in a large number of combat missions. These have included the largest operations that US forces have engaged with allies, including ‘Operation Desert Shield’ and ‘Desert Storm’ that liberated Kuwait following the invasion by Iraq, air strikes over Serbia including ‘Operation Allied Force’, from bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia ‘Operation Southern Watch’ and ‘Operation Enduring Freedom’ in Afghanistan. In terms of NATO air policing, rescue and combat support roles the 48th Fighter Wing has also engaged in ‘Operation Deny Flight’, ‘New Dawn’ ‘Odyssey Dawn’ and ‘Unified Protector’. With over 21% of capability currently deployed the two squadrons of F-15E and C variants are worked hard. The base is home to a total 55 of the F-15E variants and 20 of the F-15C. There are no plans for any reduction of the number of F-15s operated by the 48th Fighter Wing and the overall forward air capability will, from 2020, be significantly enhanced with the two squadrons of F-35A Lightning IIs comprising 24 aircraft. www.aerosociety.com

THE DECISION TO BASE F-35A AIRCRAFT AT LAKENHEATH PRESENTS A REALLY VALUABLE ONE-OFF OPPORTUNITY FOR USAF AND THE UK F-35 FORCE TO COME TOGETHER AND LEVERAGE ITS CAPABILITY JUNE 2015

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Transmission The National Aerospace Library In recent years the UK has had a National Aerospace Library worthy of the name. Its extensive and unique collection has been built up around the core of historical material accumulated by far-seeing members of the Society in the past. Today, this is a world-class resource and, for the most part, is readily accessible at its fine and appropriate situation at Farnborough. So, as a regular user, I was dismayed to learn from a column in the April issue of AEROSPACE(1) that a proposal is likely to be made to turn back the clock and return the operation to Hamilton Place. Through lack of space there, most of the collection would then be accessible only on advance notice from a remote commercial storage site. This is claimed to allow the library services to be developed for the benefit of a greater number of members, the same reasons that were given not long ago for removing it to Farnborough in the first place. It was correctly recognised then that although central London might be easier to reach, it was unrealistic to think of setting up something like the NAL there. It is hard to see how returning it now could do otherwise than make the collection less accessible. Certainly, off-site storage would make any sequential searching for information impossible. What is needed is surely not to consign this resource to obscurity, but to build on the operation at Farnborough to strengthen its claim to be a national institution. Perhaps ideally, it should become an independent foundation, but the Society could not reasonably pass over control of its

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unique collection until that was firmly established. Meanwhile, the problem is seemingly rising costs and low visitor numbers. This should now be opened up to the membership for suggestions on how it might best be addressed. Just for instance, formal links could be made to the network of UK national libraries that already operates, which might provide access to grant-in-aid and other sources of finance. For the immediate future, help might be forthcoming from The Society’s extensive range of Corporate Partners. Increasing visitor numbers requires raising its profile by promotion and marketing, as notably used by other foundations like the National Archives and British Library. The location at Farnborough could be an attractive venue for events with themes connected to the interests of the Society − and so on. Let’s hear views from the members!

NASA

LETTERS AND ONLINE

i Bic Claudiu [On NASA research paper on how to land a robot submarine to explore Saturn’s moon Titan printed in April issue of The Aeronautical Journal (2,3)] From what I understand it will be the Junior Huygens probe (in a shape of a submarine, with wheels) but this time you hope it’ll hit the ocean, not the shoreline, and maybe will be able to travel, collect data and send it to Cassini (then to Earth), not just to land and record it from the same place. Well ... for descending and landing, I think there will be a lot of factors to take into account according

Artist’s concept of the Titan Mare Explorer floating in a lake on Saturn’s moon Titan.

to Titan’s nitrogen (+ some methane and hydrogen) atmosphere which is twice as thick as Earth’s, and somehow the robot would have to surpass the ‘super rotator’ atmosphere in the upper levels to reach its destination which I suppose is the ocean. The most important instrument would be the accelerators to measure the displacements in all three axes while descending into the atmosphere and also some fans to keep it

steady (or to spin it in the wanted direction this time, not just expected, so it will create a good mosaic of pictures of the land) in case of high winds and, of course, a good parachute. While approaching the surface, the acoustic sounder will do its job and if the measurement will determine that there is no water below, maybe the fans will help by changing the descent trajectory a litle bit, so it will hit the ocean (if there exists one nearby).

@trustaviation [On CSeries at Paris Air Show] I suspect CS100 FTV5 (interior installed) will be static and CS300 will be flying. That makes sense. #cseries

@SSYS_Toronto [On Raytheon UK’s Schools Quadcopter challenge] Great stuff! Love to see all the amazing #STEM initiatives. Especially as STEM jobs are becoming more & more prevalent, right?!

Brian Brinkworth @Lukafoto One of the best articles on SMS vulnerabilities I have read.

@OzMP What a great article... A must read for pilots who actually want to become professional aviators! @onelamportwo [On Illusions of Safety blog(4)] Excellent article @ RAeSTimR: Re-up! Do modern airline safety management systems encourage a box-ticking culture?

@leonugent An apposite article. There are many SMS that just satisfy the PowerPoint in Board Room — not the front line operation.

@thatjohn [On lithium-ion battery fire regulations] I find it very interesting that so much work on this is coming out of the UK. CAA video, RAeS papers…

@flyinggibbon I wonder if the UK manufactured (inc R&D) ICBMs whether all political parties would be pro nuke?

@nrogersSF [On Germanwings blog(5)] Thoughtful piece by @RAeSTimR on #4U9525 tragedy and challenges of Human Factors + SMS to adapt to the modern world.

@JoseM_SGP [On control column stolen from Vulcan To The Sky Trust] In the Solent Sky Museum somebody stole a historic piece a couple of months ago, no? Sad, sad, sad...

@alanIrvinghoe [On SpaceX’s Dragon abort test] I was surprised by how close to shore it landed; did I hear ‘thrust below nominal’ called?

@CardingtonSheds [On the Skyship airship in ‘A View to a Kill’] I was traumatised when it blew up, moral to the story? Don’t carry dynamite on your airship.

Gary Parsons

@JulieAnderson2 [On survey that says 52% of Britons think airliners will be unpiloted by 2025] Makes no sense at all. I think the idea will be short lived.

Battle of Britain VC Typhoon

@_vonrichtofen I wonder why we want to get rid of pilots after 110 years of aviation while we keep ship captains after centuries of sailing. @McGphoto Interesting findings. Both in regards to where public think technology is at and how they feel about that technology.

@gcater A merchant navy friend of mine once said, the captain is only there for someone to blame if it all goes wrong.

@lloydphoto I would presume a pilot would still need to be onboard as a fail safe though? How can they guarantee systems won’t crash/fail?

@TheParkerEACT [On Ballantyne Event] Thanks for an inspirational day at #Ballantyne2015.

As part of the commemorations of the 75th anniversary of the Battle of Britain, a 29(R) Squadron Eurofighter Typhoon was painted in the No 249 Squadron markings of the Hawker Hurricane flown by Wing Commander Eric James Brindley Nicolson VC DFC, RAF Fighter Command’s only Victoria Cross recipient, during the summer of 1940.

@floatdouble [On RAF camouflage Typhoon] What a stunning aircraft! Love the markings. Looking forward to seeing it at Duxford :)

@ThinkDefence That is fantastic, on a stick!

@user47 The world needs more delta winged planes…

@TimmyC62 Nice companion to the @ RCAF_ARC’s BoB commemorative CF-18!

@Boyinelaad Ooh I say. I’d rather like to see that in LFA7 for my annual trip tomorrow.

@dallascampbell Thanks for having me @ AeroSociety Great fun & lovely to talk with such a distinguished panel!

@FDF [On first Schools Build-a-Plane now for sale] Get yourself a Rans S-6ES for only £18K and help these students build more!

@trustaviation [On unlimited structural life of DC-8] That unlimited structural life was probably why it guzzled so much fuel.

@gavinwishart [On RAPS Airworthiness event] Looking forward to RPAS airworthiness conference today.

@laettalentfly [On premiere of SBAP documentary film on UK sat TV] @AeroSociety @Boeing screens May 11th, how exciting. Thanks for giving us the opportunity to make the film #youhavecontrol.

@NedtheMerciless Looks like a tribute to Nick Nicolson, 249 Sqd , the only VC of the Battle of Britain??? @beaver_paul Cool Boscombe Down VC too.

@AmyJohnson_HBay A wonderful day @ AeroSociety inspiring speakers, @dallascampbell energy, young people following #dreams.

The RAeS Ballantyne lecture was held on 1 May on the theme of ‘Innovation — Our Future, your Future?’

1. AEROSPACE, April 2015, p 43. 2. http://aerosociety.com/News/Insight-Blog/3065/Exclusive-research-paper-gives-technical-insight-into-NASA-Titansub-concept 3. The Aeronautical Journal, April 2015, p 409, Instrumented splashdown testing of a scale model Titan Mare Explorer *TiME) capsule 4. http://aerosociety.com/News/Insight-Blog/3038/Illusions-of-safety 5. http://aerosociety.com/News/Insight-Blog/3013/Germanwings-the-final-frontier-of-aviation-safety

Online

Additional features and content are available to view online at http://media.aerosociety.com/aerospace-insight @aerosociety

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JUNE 2015

13

TECHNOLOGY Additive manufacturing

3D printing

— ready for take-off

BILL READ reports on the 3D printing revolution that has the potential to transform not only aerospace manufacturing and aircraft design but also the MRO and space industries.

U YOUR ONLY CONSTRAINT IS BY WHAT YOU CAN IMAGINE OR YOU CAN QUALIFY Russ Dunn

Senior VP Engineering and Technology, GKN

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AEROSPACE / JUNE 2015

ntil recently, most metal components for aircraft and aerospace products have been created by cutting large billets down into the required shape — an expensive process that requires both specialist tooling and generates a large amount of waste. However, the past few years have seen the development of new ‘3D printing’ techniques which have enabled the creation of high-quality, complex aircraft parts in less time and at a lower cost. 3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing (AM), creates three-dimensional products by ‘printing’ parts layer by layer from powdered plastics, aluminium, titanium or stainless steel using computer-aided design (CAD) templates. The first application of AM techniques in the aerospace industry was the rapid creation of customised, one-off prototype parts. AM techniques have also been adopted to produce tooling parts used in aircraft production — such as templates or jigs — and to produce ‘surrogates’ which are used as substitutes for high-value assemblies in

non-flight applications on the production floor or in training. However, AM production is now being increasingly adopted by many of the major aerospace OEMs to create parts for aircraft, engines, rockets and satellites. Smaller manufacturers and other organisations are also utilising 3D printing to construct customised parts for UAVs, while its potential is also being considered for aircraft repairs and the supply of spare parts.

Printed parts AM manufacturing is already being used in aircraft manufacturing. Airbus has begun using 3D printed parts for both new aircraft and for replacement parts for out-of-production models. In May it was announced that Airbus had used Stratasys FDM 3D production systems to create over 1,000 flight parts for the first-of-type A350 which was delivered in December 2014. Meanwhile, Bell Helicopter is also working on plans to use AM components in its

commercial helicopters and has been working with Harvest Technologies to gain experience through the manufacture of parts for the environmental control system (ECS) before moving on to develop other AM components. Boeing is also already making widespread use of 3D printing for up to 300 parts for ten different aircraft types, including 30 parts in the 787 Dreamliner.

Airbus

and Boeing 737 MAX, as well as COMAC’s C919. GE has also incorporated an AM component for the housing on the T25 sensor in its GE90 engine.

Aero engines

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A 3D printed bracket for the Airbus A350.

AM has also impacted the military sector. Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II reportedly has 900 parts made by AM while Boeing is using around 150 parts produced by selective laser sintering in the F/A-18 Super Hornet. In January, BAE Systems conducted a test flight of a Tornado GR4 fitted with printed metal parts, including a protective cover for the radio, landing-gear guard and air-intake door support struts. The aim of the test was to demonstrate how maintenance crews could make replacement parts for the Tornado wherever it was based, including the front line. As well as being produced quickly, the parts could also be produced more cheaply.

Printing satellites Bell Helicopter AM helicopter parts.

NPU

Additive manufacturing has also proved particularly adaptable for the production of aero engine parts with complex geometries, such as fuel systems, guide vanes and turbine blades, which would be either impossible or very expensive using conventional manufacturing. MTU Aero Engines in Germany claims to be one of the first companies to use AM techniques, becoming interested in the technology around 11 years ago. From May 2013, the company began using selective laser melting (SLM) to create borescope bosses for the Pratt & Whitney PurePower PW1100G-JM geared turbofan which will power the Airbus A320neo. The heat-resistant bosses form part of the turbine case and allow the blading to be inspected at specified intervals for wear and damage using a borescope. Production of the borescope bosses was initially in small quantities but is expected to ramp up this year once production of the neo gets fully under way. MTU now plans to use SLM to produce more lightweight components and is currently developing a seal carrier to go inside a high-pressure compressor as part of the European Union’s Clean Sky aeronautical research programme. Later this year Rolls-Royce is to flight-test what it claims to be the largest 3D printed aerospace component yet to power an aircraft. Incorporated into its Trent XWB-97 engine, the titanium structure measures 1.5m in diameter and 0.5m-thick. The front bearing housing contains 48 aerofoils and was manufactured using Arcam’s electron beam melting technology, following research performed with the University of Sheffield and the UK’s Manufacturing Technology Centre. In 2012, GE Aviation demonstrated its commitment to 3D printing when it acquired metal additive manufacturer Morris Technologies. At the Farnborough Air Show in July last year, GE announced plans for a $50m investment to begin high-volume additive manufacturing of preassembled aero engine fuel nozzles at its facility in Auburn, AL. By the end of 2015, the plant could have as many as ten printing machines with the potential to grow to more than 50 printers. The new nozzles will be used in the new CFM LEAP engine which will power the re-engined Airbus A320neo

Military applications

The space sector has also eagerly embraced the potential of 3D printing. In January 2014, US commercial space company SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 rocket with a 3D-printed main oxidizer valve (MOV) body in one of the nine Merlin 1D engines. The launch escape system on SpaceX’s Dragon 2 spacecraft also includes a 3D printed engine chamber which was created in-house in just over three months. Rocket manufacturer ULA has begun using AM to produce parts for its Atlas V rocket while NASA has also tested a rocket engine injector made with a 3D printer. Airbus Defence and Space utilises AM titanium retaining brackets on its satellites while Lockheed Martin has started using 3D printed components for its satellites, and plans to expand the process with the ultimate aim of building a complete 3D printed satellite. The two NASA Mars rovers currently operating on the Red Planet included 70 3D-printed parts, including flame-retardant vents and housings, camera mounts and large pod doors. Practical tests have also begun on printing 3D structures in space. In December 2014, NASA emailed CAD drawings for a socket wrench to astronauts aboard the ISS, who then printed the tool using a 3D printer.

Chinese print out

A 3 metre long titanium aircraft component printed by Northwestern Polytechnical University in China.

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Other countries are also busy developing the potential of AM in aerospace. In China, the State Key Laboratory of Solidification Processing at the Northwestern Polytechnical University (NPU) began research in 1995 into laser additive manufacturing (LAM) of titanium alloys, superalloys, and stainless JUNE 2015

15

TECHNOLOGY Additive manufacturing

3D Printing Advantages

steel. The lab is equipped with two LAM machines and, in 2013, manufactured a 5m long titanium central wing spar for Comac’s C919 narrow body. According to Chinese aircraft manufacturer AVIC, AM is also being used to produce load-bearing parts, including landing gears, for several Chinese aircraft, including the J-15 fighter. In March 2014, Airbus signed a co-operation agreement with NPU to explore ways to further apply 3D printing technology in the commercial aviation sector. Under this agreement, NPU is manufacturing test specimens of titanium alloy parts for Airbus using its laser solid forming technology.

UAVs An aerospace sector in which AM has proved particularly useful has been that of UAVs which, with their customised shapes, smaller sizes, lower production runs and no passenger safety regulations, are ideal for such production methods Several companies lay claim to the distinction of being the first to produce a 3D printed UAV. US Southampton University

Easy to change designs Reduced production times Reduced waste Reduce number of parts Lower cost of production No extra costs for one-off or limited production Can be printed on demand where needed Can be used to produce complex hybrid parts

3D printed metal model aircraft. (NLR)

The Southampton University Laser Sintered Aircraft (SULSA)

3D Printing Disadvantages Restrictions on size of parts Certification issues Structural properties not yet fully known Slow production rates

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AEROSPACE / JUNE 2015

company SelectTech Geospatial claims to have produced the first UAV made entirely from AM parts to take-off and land on its gear. In 2012, Southampton University designed a 3D printed UAV which was developed and flown within a month. The University of Sheffield’s Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre (AMRC) Design and Prototyping Group (DPG) conducted a study of self-supporting printed structures for unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) wing design in which the designers used fractal mathematics to model an internal structure resembling that of an insect wing. The aim was to develop a wing that could be printed by the fused deposition modelling (FDM) process, using acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS)

without the need for additional structural material. Lessons learned during this study will be used for future projects within the DPG and were used for the first UAV fixed wing prototype.

Print your own spare parts The development of AM techniques has also begun to affect the aircraft maintenance and overhaul (MRO) industry. GKN is currently working on new processes which will enable the company to use AM techniques at its plants to repair damaged aircraft parts. Currently, MRO companies requiring a replacement part for an aircraft have had to ship it over from a factory or a spares centre but there is now the potential in the future to speed up the process by printing out parts where they are needed. Boeing is already looking at this and recently filed an patent application for a ‘parts library’ for replacement aircraft parts which enable local MRO centres to construct the parts they need instead of having to them them shipped over from a central hub. AM also has potential for producing complex parts for low-volume production runs — such as replacement parts for vintage or out-of-production legacy aircraft.

Production research Interest has also begun to focus on the AM production process. In the UK, the newly formed Aerospace Technology Institute (ATI) government and industry partnership and the Technology Strategy Board economic innovation agency — now renamed as Innovate UK is also taking an interest in AM. One of the programmes they are backing is a three-year, £3.1m collaborative research programme to develop titanium powder specifically formulated and blended to meet the needs of additive manufacturing. Launched in April and led by GKN Aerospace, the TiPOW (Titanium Powder for net-shape component manufacture) programme will also look at developing the techniques and equipment that will produce the titanium powder consistently, in quantity and at a lower price, together with its re-use and recycling. Meanwhile, BAE Systems and Cranfield University have also developed the wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) method to produce customised titanium parts, including a 1.2m spar section produced in 37 hours.

The certification challenge A major issue now being addressed by aerospace manufacturers is the problem of how to get 3D

printed parts to meet the criteria required for certification by the aviation safety regulators. To achieve certification, regulators, such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the US and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) in Europe, require that aircraft parts must (a) be established on the basis of experience or tests; (b) conform to approved specifications that ensure that they have the strength and other properties assumed in the design data; and (c) take into account variable conditions in temperature, stress and humidity which may be experienced in service. Senior VP Engineering and Technology at GKN, Russ Dunn, explains how his company has dealt with the problem: “Once you’ve made an AM component, the next challenge is to certificate the powder, the part and the process. We’ve spent a number of years working on both process and part qualification. In part qualification, you are constrained by the function of that part. In process qualification we look at how we can control the way parts are made, including the material they are made from. At the moment we’re trying to remove variables and concentrate on one thing. We’re currently focusing on replicating titanium parts. As part of the qualification process, we’re testing how the strength and capability of AM parts might vary depending on how they are made. With a traditional ‘block material’ we test a billet and see how strong it is in different directions, both in damage and in static loading. But with a 3D printed part, created from tiny particles of metal, its properties may differ depending on its microstructure. To test these properties, we are creating what we call ‘hedgehogs’ — which are blocks with a series of structural rods sticking out at different angles. By testing every single one of these time and time again which enables us to get data sets across the whole build envelope.”

GKN

Rolls-Royce

Steady progress

Top: Cutaway drawing of the Trent XWB showing the front bearing housing in blue which Rolls-Royce has produced using 3D printing. Above: An Arcam Q20 additive manufacturing machine at GKN Aerospace, Filton.

BOEING RECENTLY FILED A PATENT APPLICATION FOR A PARTS LIBRARY FOR REPLACEMENT AIRCRAFT PARTS WHICH ENABLE LOCAL MRO CENTRES TO CONSTRUCT THE PARTS THEY NEED

Russ Dunn explained how GKN sees AM evolving: “We don’t want to rush ahead too fast. Our plan is to proceed in steady stages, the first of which is to replicate parts made by traditional methods which look and operate exactly the same way. We’re concentrating on how to maximise the value we’re getting from the material by making the most efficient use of the space available. Powder bed machines are getting larger and we’re now able to print hundreds of components in one go. Today, there are millions of titanium parts flying around the world. If you can reduce the cost of that by 10%, that’s a significant saving. If you can reduce the weight by 10%, that’s a major saving for the airlines. “The next stage after this will be to optimise parts with reduced weight and better performance. However, you also have to consider the wider picture of how it may affect the rest of the aircraft structure, such as its loading, segregation, lightning strike, etc — an issue which the OEMs are always looking at. The third stage will be the creation of larger, more complex integrated structures. As far as aerospace is concerned, the pace of development of AM may develop at different rates in different sectors. Engine manufacturers may adopt AM parts faster than say the airframe side, which tends to adopt a more progressive approach.”

The future is 3D In addition to replacing traditional methods of construction, many experts believe that AM techniques offer ‘game-changing’ opportunities for both production and design techniques. The manufacturing supply chain can be done away with by manufacturing parts on site closer to where they are needed. “We intend eventually to be able to deploy a blueprint to be manufactured in any part of the world,” says Dunn. Another change is that designers can return to first principles and radically rethink how products can be designed with more complex geometries. “The really exciting capability of AM materials is the ability to create integrated materials which fully optimise their strengths,” says Dunn. “Composite parts have proved to be very good for simple load paths while metal components are very capable for more complicated load paths in different directions. Currently, composite parts in aircraft still use traditional fastenings to connect them to metal structures. In the future we expect to see more complex ‘organic’ structures which are optimised to provide the best load paths from both materials. Your only constraint is by what you can imagine or you can qualify.”

An online blog focusing on how 3D printing is being adopted in the space and satellite industry can be found on: http://aerosociety.com/News/Insight-Blog @aerosociety

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JUNE 2015

17

PLANE SPEAKING Sir Michael Marshall

Plane Speaking with:

Sir Michael Marshall

Guest of honour at this year’s Annual Banquet in May was Executive Chairman of Marshall Group, SIR MICHAEL MARSHALL CBE DL FRAeS FIMI. We took the opportunity to ask him about the future of the familyowned group, the UK aerospace sector and the importance of skills.

Marshall Group RAeS/NAL

Marshall agreed to design and develop Concorde’s nose visor in just a day.

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AEROSPACE / JUNE 2015

MM: My aviation career started with Tiger Moths and Vampires. In the post-war years we worked progressively with most of the UK aircraft manufacturers, de Havilland, Bristol, Vickers, English Electric, all of which came together in the early 1960s, followed by Hawker Siddeley in 1977, into what is now BAE Systems. Rapid development of new technology spearheaded in the 1960s by Concorde with which we were delighted to be involved, followed by the growth of Airbus in Europe and Boeing and Lockheed Martin in the United States. Air-to-air refuelling has grown and is now an essential military requirement. Throughout this we have seen UK aerospace companies consistently demonstrate strength in the international market, including large companies like BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce, as well as smaller private companies, such as our own. There has been the continued sustained growth of commercial aerospace, an increasing understanding of the value of intellectual property, the importance of the environment and clean air initiatives and the progressive move across from aluminium to advanced composite materials in many applications.

quickly, such as agreeing in one day to design and manufacture the Concorde nose and visor and the design, manufacture and installation of in-flight refuelling on the C-130 in just 14 days at the beginning of the Falklands conflict. By remaining independent, we can make decisions very quickly and think longer-term. We have also been able to hold true to our family company values and also to maintain a constant programme of training which, in the case of apprentices, stretches right back to 1920 in an unbroken line. Q: Marshall’s long association with aviation dates back to pre-WW2 training services. What other opportunities do you see for these sorts of outsourced defence training services? MM: We see this as a significant opportunity. With the armed forces under serious and significant pressure to achieve more with less, there is a greater focus on through-life support; from design, through manufacturing and production into integrated operational support. This extends to the ‘Whole Force’ concept and the increased reliance on the use of reservists and closer working relationships with all the businesses who employ those reservists in their day job. Companies like Marshall are well placed to support the forces, as they strive to meet their objectives aided by appropriate Government funding to assist us in expanding training to our local SME community and to overcome the significant shortage of licensed engineers during the coming years.

Q: What difference do you think Marshall Group being family-owned has made throughout its history — when many of its peers are public plcs?

Q: Marshall now covers MRO, certification, engineering, training and business aviation. Where do you see it going in the future?

MM: Flexibility and speed of response so we can help our customers get the solutions they need

MM: We are a relatively unique company, being independent and offering a full spectrum of

Marshall ADG

A

EROSPACE: Your life covers a fair chunk of post-war aviation — what do you think have been the most significant changes you have seen over your career?

Marshall ADG

Interior of a Embraer Phenom 300 bizjet — the latest aircraft to join Marshall Aviation Services’ managed fleet. capability from initial design through to flight test and certification of any modification to upgrade a military or civil registered aircraft. This platformindependent capability is attractive to all sorts of customers in the UK and elsewhere, including overseas primes, particularly from the US, who need our sort of capability in Europe and in other parts of the world. We will focus on developing and promoting our world-leading specialist capabilities and we will also look to develop further our links with Cambridge and other leading universities when appropriate. Q: What are your thoughts on the state of the UK aerospace and defence sector today? MM: I am optimistic about the future for the UK aerospace and defence sector which is made up of large and diverse collections of businesses and many of them have world-class reputations for the work they do. The support of the UK Government through the Aerospace and Defence Growth Partnerships (AGP and DGP) is helping our industry to continue to be a significant contributor to the UK economy, despite the substantial cuts in the UK defence budget. The UK is the second largest net exporter of products to the global aerospace and defence sector (second only to the US). To keep this position, we must continue to invest in training and technology. I do, however, urge our

Boeing

In 2014 the company won the Boeing ‘Supplier of the Year’ award for its performance supplying P-8 Poseidon auxiliary fuel tanks. new Government to make and stick to the NATO commitment to spend at least 2% of our GDP on defence, especially at a time when our national security is under threat from so many different quarters. We also badly need a fully proven and comprehensive Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA) for maritime protection and rescue. Q: Inspiring the next generation is important. Do you think we are doing enough to encourage future generations of engineers, pilots and technicians? MM: We can never do enough! However, it is good that there is now a national focus on encouraging young people to make subject choices which opens up career opportunities for them but there is a lot more which needs to be done and we cannot afford to be complacent. Our role as an industry is to inspire them to choose a career in the aviation, aerospace or defence sectors. There are a huge number of very exciting opportunities for them and we must use all our channels to get the message across, whether that is through the DGP and AGP, or the excellent work of the Air League and their extensive scholarship and bursary programme and the work of the Royal Aeronautical Society in conjunction with Boeing and other organisations doing great work to inspire young people. In Marshall, we continue to build on our 95-year commitment to apprentice training and we have recently launched our LaunchPad programme which, through partnership with their schools, seeks to encourage young people between the ages of 8 and 18, growing up in our part of the country, to consider careers in engineering or engineeringrelated businesses. Q: In recent years we’ve seen the government and industry highlight apprenticeships as a way into aviation and aerospace — are you pleased to see these become more popular?

THERE IS A HUGE SKILLS GAP IN THE UK AND THIS WILL GET WIDER IF WE DON’T ALL WORK TOGETHER TO ENCOURAGE MORE YOUNG PEOPLE, GIRLS AND BOYS, TO SIGN UP TO APPRENTICESHIPS

Marshall Aerospace and Defence Group continues to be a global centre of excellence for Lockheed Martin C-130 support and upgrades.

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FEBRUARY 2015

19

PLANE SPEAKING

A full spectrum of design and engineering expertise is still kept in-house to respond to customer’s needs.

MM: It is great news that there has been a much stronger drive to recruit more apprentices across all industries but we mustn’t forget that many companies like Marshall have been offering full apprenticeships for many years, in our case, now for over 95 years. Apprenticeships are a great way to bring new young talent into our industry and they offer a great start to successful careers. After all, many of the senior posts, including at main board level in our company and across the wider industry, are held by former apprentices. There is a huge skills gap in the UK and this will get wider if we don’t all work together to encourage more young people, girls and boys, to sign up to apprenticeships. Beyond that, I would also like to see a greater focus on enabling apprentices to go on afterwards to achieve valuable and relevant degrees, through the many universities which offer courses which are highly rated by the industry. Q: As a defence contractor — how optimistic are you for the next UK SDSR?

Marshall ADG

Marshall has offered apprenticeships to young people for the past 95 years.

MM: Clearly, balancing the books has to be a top priority for any government and defence is just one of many commitments, so we have to be realistic but defence of the realm is the prime responsibility of government. I do believe strongly that the UK Government must make a commitment not to let our annual investment in defence fall below the 2% of GDP threshold and it concerns me that there has been so little debate about this during the preelection campaign. I am also concerned about the lack of any effective maritime patrol capability and I would like to see that included in the SDSR, along with a firm commitment to replace Trident. Our armed forces are under huge pressure trying to meet their obligations to the UK and NATO at minimum cost to the taxpayer. This gives us the opportunity to work closely with the MoD and the Armed Forces to find innovative ways of addressing the needs of the end users, being prepared where appropriate to rewrite the rule book. The Integrated Operational Support contracts we developed with the MoD and RAF for the C-130 and TriStar fleets were a good example of this but there is a lot more we could achieve if we focus on the actual requirements at the front line and then find better ways to deliver the equipment and support needed. Q: As a pillar of the aerospace sector — what messages would you give to politicians today

Marshall ADG

Marshall ADG

Sir Michael Marshall

Earlier this year, Marshall ADG opened a new paint facility — able to accommodate aircraft up to 747/A330 size. in preserving and allowing the industry to flourish? MM: I would want to remind them that our industry has roots which go right back to the early days of aviation. It is a net contributor to the UK economy, to high tech employment and to our balance of trade and it is recognised throughout the world as being innovative and forward looking. They can best help us by continuing long term investment in skills (including STEM and apprenticeships) and also in technology, while continuing to support our export campaigns and trying to reduce red-tape and bureaucracy which has become a significant burden on all businesses in the UK. Q: You have been a tremendous philanthropist and supporter to the local area of Cambridge and its institutions over many years. That must have given you particular enjoyment? MM: We have enjoyed being in Cambridge and assisting in a small way with the growth of the high-tech world leading Cambridge Phenomenon through our training programmes. During the postwar years, we were always concerned at the lack of industry in Cambridge and its dependence on us for employment and wealth creation. It has also been very satisfying to have been able to assist so many charities and major organisations, such as Addenbrooke’s, Ely Cathedral, the East Anglian Air Ambulance, the Service Benevolent funds etc. and to encourage aviation through the ATC and the Air League and the RAeS local Branch, as well as nationally. We have been very fortunate. Q: Finally — on thoughts of succession — what would be the one word of advice you would give your son, Robert, in taking over the reins? MM: When I finally retire I would remind him to continue to be true to the inspirational legacy of his Great Grandfather, to the hard work and leadership of his Grandfather, and to focus on the requirements of our customers and the wellbeing of our wonderful staff and to be mindful of our role in the local community and our relationship with Cambridge University and City.

AIR SHOWS 2015 Paris Air Show preview

Paris show time

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n June, all eyes will be on Le Bourget as France hosts the 51st biennial Paris Air Show from 15 to 21 June. The first four days of the show will be trade days, followed by three public days. This year will see the return of the jobs and training forum in the Concorde Hall, together with the ‘careers plane’ which promotes aerospace production jobs with booths in the shape of different aircraft sections (see below). A number of events are also planned for particular days. Tuesday 16 June will see the Skytrax Awards ceremony while a Commercial Aerospace Manufacturing Briefing is scheduled for Wednesday 17 June. Visitors to the show will also be able to take advantage of a special ‘Geolocation’ mobile app which will help visitors find their way around using virtual maps of the show site.

Aircraft At the time of writing, the full list of aircraft planned to be on display at the show had not yet been finalised but advance reports suggest that it will include the first appearance of the flight test versions of Bombardier’s new regional jets, the CS100 (which is aiming for certification later in 2015) and the larger CS300. Also expected is an appearance from the JF-17 light fighter developed

by China and Pakistan with some reports hinting that a two-seat version of the aircraft may be announced at the show. Dassault is hoping to have its new Falcon 8X business jet present and possibly the Falcon 5X. After its no-show at last year’s Farnborough Air Show, the Lockheed Martin F-35 will again not be coming to Europe and it has been announced that no US military aircraft will fly at Paris. Companies conspicuous by their absence at this year’s show will include US defence company Northrop Grumman and the UK’s BAE Systems. However, the Textron AirLand Scorpion is expected to come over from the US to be on Exhibitors display. The show’s organisers say that Russian exhibitors have been invited to participate in the show but no Russian aircraft have asked to participate in Aircraft the flying display. For more information on PAS2015, see http://www.siae.fr/EN The AEROSPACE team will be reporting on the latest news from the 2015 Paris Air Show with tweets from Editor, Tim Robinson (twitter @raestimr) and regular online updates appearing in a series of daily blogs on http://aerosociety.com/News/Insight-Blog

2,215 150 350 26 26 Chalet units

National pavilions

new exhibitors

AEROSPACE / JUNE 2015

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SPACEFLIGHT European space debris initiatives

Cleaning up space

SARAH CRUDDAS looks at European initiatives to stem the build-up of debris in orbit.

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or over half a century humans have been launching satellites and spacecraft into space, often without considering what happens to the remaining debris, or how to remove disused satellites from orbit. Today there are millions of tiny pieces of debris orbiting our planet, with around 25,000 larger pieces of debris — such as rocket stages and dead satellites — all from just little more than 50 years of space exploration. Added to the ‘junk’ already in orbit, the volume of active satellites above our planet has increased rapidly. Space is becoming crowded. When we first started exploring beyond our atmosphere, it wasn’t an issue, in the 50s, 60s and 70s the race for supremacy in space was the priority and a future full of manmade objects orbiting our planet remained lost in the realms of science fiction, and was never considered a priority at the time. Today, space is all; from the heavyweights such as the Russian Federal Space Agency, NASA and ESA, to commercial companies, most nations on Earth now have a satellite in orbit. But, as we continue to reach for the stars, the crowding of debris around Earth is becoming problematic. “This is something which has the potential to become very serious, if appropriate action isn’t taken”, explains Dr Patrick Harkness, a space systems engineer at the University of Glasgow, who worked on the AEOLDOS (Aerodynamic End Of Life DeOrbit System) CubeSat module with Clyde Space. While the size of much of the space junk may seem small, with satellites orbiting our planet at speeds

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of 28,000km/hour, collisions with even small fragments can be potentially catastrophic — an object larger than 1cm hitting a satellite will damage or destroy sub-systems or instruments on board and a collision with an object larger than 10cm can destroy the whole satellite. There is also the potential for the backlash for life here on Earth, as we become increasingly reliant on satellites for everything from communications to weather forecasting. Those currently most at risk are ones in higher orbits (800-1,000km) where there are more satellites, with those in lower orbits likely to avoid the same amount of debris as it burns up in the atmosphere.

Pushing up costs There is also the risk of making missions more expensive for those operating satellites. According to the European Commission, satellite operators in

SATELLITE OPERATORS IN EUROPE LOSE APPROXIMATELY €140M PER YEAR DUE TO COLLISIONS

So, although space junk is a serious problem, it is not yet critical. “If we don’t do something, it will turn critical,” explains Saunders, “the amount of material is reaching tipping point.” Saunders compares the challenge to climate change: “like reducing CO2 levels, we need to stop before we get to this point.” The nightmare scenario is that, you can’t use space anymore, because of the debris. The concern is that once you meet a critical mass in orbit, everything begins to collide. “It’s an exponential growth,” says Alasdair Gow, a Spacecraft Sales Engineer, from Clyde Space. “One collision between two objects leads to more shrapnel.” Known as Kessler syndrome and first proposed by NASA scientist Donald Kessler in 1978, the result is collisions creating more debris, which in turn collides with other objects to create even more debris, until, eventually, like a domino effect, everything is debris and low Earth orbit is too hazardous for humans or satellites. Of course, we are not at that point yet but, this is the situation nobody wants to get to. So how do we stop space reaching this nightmare scenario? The answer lies as much in legislation as it does in science. In Europe, the European Commission is committed to the funding of research projects aimed at the monitoring, mitigation and removal of space debris. “A lot of @aerosociety

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work is being done by Europe into the issue of space debris,” says Saunders. With a number of leading technological institutions in the EU, as well as the UN Department for Outer Space Affairs being based in Austria, there is the potential for Europe to take the lead in this area. Of course that’s not to do down other countries. “There are plenty of others investing too but the EU does fund schemes and various national space agencies”, adds Harkness. As well as funding schemes, there are also several strands of work to help reduce the risk from debris, not only to other spacecraft in orbit, but also to the potential damage caused by an uncontrolled re-entry of a large piece of debris. The first of these initiatives is tracking. In 2013 the European Commission introduced a proposal which was later adopted in April 2014 to help unite member states’ space surveillance and tracking (SST) technology, inspired by the fact that we have become increasingly reliant on near space for our everyday lives. The SST service will, in the future, be accessible to the public, commercial, civil and military operators and authorities. There are also plans for a support programme which helps EU Member States combine their capacities, including groundbased radars and telescopes, and offer European SST services. The idea is to make it possible to protect satellites by monitoring and cataloguing their positions; tracking and calculating debris trajectory; and measure collision risk. It would also mean being able to predict where a large piece of out-of-control space debris could land back on Earth.

Code of practice

The threat. A hole caused by space debris in the panel of NASA's Solar Max experiment.

Is space debris reaching the tipping point?

Internationally, there is a code of good practice to avoid the unnecessary creation of space debris. The hope is to prevent a repeat of what happened in 2007 when China destroyed its own weather satellite, creating debris which is claimed later hit a small Russian satellite in orbit. Finally there is a longer term plan being investigated by the European Space Agency to look at the issue of how to remove www.aerosociety.com

ESA

Reaching the tipping point?

NASA

Europe lose approximately €140m per year due to collisions, and that total is predicted to rise to about €210m within the next decade. “Space junk is also a problem for business,” explains Dr Luca Rossettini, CEO of Italian-based firm D-Orbit, “satellites today are crowded in orbit, so they need to do things to avoid collisions but, every time you perform a manoeuvre, you use up propellant.” Although in the grand scheme of things, one or two manoeuvres of a satellite might not seem like a big deal, it’s still not a decision taken lightly by those operating them. “If you have to keep doing manoeuvres, it does have an impact”, adds Chris Saunders from SSTL, which makes and operates small satellites. “There have been times when we have had to move spacecraft because of debris”. As well as the costs, by doing these manoeuvres; you are also losing valuable spacecraft time. It is not only the satellites we rely on for so many aspects of life on Earth, there is also the risk to space explorers — present and future. A problem glamorised for the big screen in the film Gravity, but the International Space Station has already has to change its orbit twice a year on average because of debris. There is also the threat to deeper space missions. “Any mission to anywhere has to pass through Earth orbit first so, if Earth becomes an excessively dangerous place to linger, then our access to deep space, for exploration purposes, might be limited in the future too,” says Harkness.

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SPACEFLIGHT

JPL

IF YOU WERE TO REMOVE SOMEONE ELSE’S SATELLITE AND SOMETHING WAS TO GO WRONG, CREATING MORE DEBRIS, WHERE WOULD LIABILITY LIE?

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space debris. “All of this is very important for the space community,” explains Rossettini “we are going through the same steps as we go through with any other industrial sector.” At the moment the key focus is not to increase the amount of ‘junk’ in space and then try to handle the existing large amount of debris which currently orbits our planet. When we first began launching objects into space, there were no standards for space debris and, at the time, with so few satellites, it wasn’t really an issue. But, in order to not increase the amount of debris in space, the most important thing is to have standards. The ISO (International Standards Organisation) now has standards in place to insure that satellites are disposed of, so that they minimise the amount of debris. For higher geostationary orbits there are socalled ‘graveyard orbits’ satellites can be moved into. For low Earth orbit, this means that, when a space mission is finished, it needs to re-enter Earth’s orbit within 25 years. Aside from the possibility of having left over propellant on board, satellite manufactures have developed systems to get dead satellites out of orbit within the time frame. “We have a deployable drag foil on board the spacecraft, which releases at the end of its life,” explains Saunders. “It works by increasing the cross sectional area which causes the satellite to comes down within 15-20 years.” SSTL’s first spacecraft to launch with this was TechDemoSat in 2014. “In the future most spacecraft will carry one of these deployable devices,” he notes. There is also the possibility of electro dynamic thermo tape, which would be released at the end of the spacecraft’s life. The current flows down the tape, interacts with

ESA

European space debris initiatives

Getting closer to de-orbit a satellite will probably involve precision ranging systems, such as LIDAR. Earth’s magnetic field and creates a force that drags down the spacecraft.

Mitigation technology Other European projects to minimise the creation of space debris have a dual purpose. For example, AEOLDOS, developed between the University of Glasgow and Clyde Space, works not only to cause the spacecraft orbit to decay but future systems are being developed to use the pressure of sunlight on the sails to boost the orbit of the spacecraft. This has particular use for CubeSats which are launched by a robotic arm from the ISS in low Earth orbit. It will mean they can be taken to a higher orbit but still be able to drag down at the end of their life. The de-orbit system designed by Rossettini uses a solid propellant ‘one shot’ motor, which can be used not only on new spacecraft before launch but has the potential to be put on decommissioned craft to take them out of orbit. The other issue of minimising further debris, is the debris created by existing space junk colliding. ISO standards are also in place to try and prevent this happening. “When a spacecraft comes to the end of its life, you need to remove all sources of energy”, explains Saunders. There has been the recent case of an old US military weather satellite which exploded, the most likely cause of which was the battery. “This is something we don’t want to risk. There are ways of completely separating the battery at the end of life. you can also put on extra vent and valves to ‘empty the tank’ so to speak.”

D-Orbit

Italy's D-Orbit company has developed bolton end-of-life de-orbit rocket packages to attach to satellites.

that same technology to capture someone else satellite. What you are left with is the perfect storm of paranoia, risk, money and politics.

Maritime salvage a model?

Of course, these standards aren’t ingrained in law for all satellite manufactures but Harkness believes they are as good as. “It’s something you have got to do. If you don’t, you run the risk that a space agency is unlikely to issue a launch licence without it.” Because of this, countries such as France have made the 25-year rule part of their law. While working to minimise the amount of debris from new missions appears relatively straightforward, as long as standards are followed, the issue becomes more complicated when you try to address existing debris. “You can’t just remove satellites ‘willy nilly’,” says Saunders. The problem is that the satellites which exist in orbit, even if they are no longer in use, are still owned by the government or organisation that put them there. This creates a complicated problem with respect to liability. For example, if you were to remove someone else’s satellite and something was to go wrong, creating more debris, where would liability lie? The issue is further complicated with respect to disused military satellites. Would Russia, for example — the worst offender for large space debris — want America removing one of its old spy satellites? The answer, with good reason, is likely to be ‘no’. And there is also a fine line between the potential technology to remove debris from orbit, to using

So, it is by no means clear what the final solution will look like, although Harkness believes the thinking is likely to make it similar to maritime salvage law. On top of that, there needs to be a compelling business case for cleaning up space. From a purely technical point of view, the best solution is to pay for a company or organisation to get rid of debris from orbit but, at the moment, nobody is offering money to clean up space debris. Yet despite all of these complications and issues, there are a number of incredible projects that people are coming up with to potentially remove debris from space. “There are projects that seem like sci-fi today,” explains Rossettini. Among the ideas is a pan-European project called CLEANSPACE which aims to remove small pieces of debris (such as space gloves and screws) using laser illuminations. Swiss Space Systems and EPFL (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) are developing the CleanSpace One nanosatallite designed to remove debris from around the Earth. There is also the ESA e.Deorbit mission, to capture debris and remove it from orbit. “Universities and institutions are doing research into grabbing dead satellites and removing them from orbit,” adds Rossettini. Everything from space ‘tugboats’ to harpoons are being developed. But the key to resolving the issue of space debris is about making sure that we don’t get to the point where Kessler syndrome develops. “We need to act now,” says Rossettini. It might not be as exciting or as sexy as other space missions but it is critical for space exploration and the answer is in legislation.

ESA

Another ESA space debris plan would involve ‘netting’ old satellites to de-orbit them. @aerosociety

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AIRLINES Global alliances

Alliances of convenience JOHN WALTON argues that consistency is key for today's giant global airline alliances as they enter their third decade.

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he three global airline alliances — oneworld, Star Alliance and SkyTeam — dominate the landscape that frequentflyers and regular travellers alike. encounter in the modern aviation world. Ownership rules have long prevented airlines from taking full control of other states’ flagged carriers, and, even though these are being increasingly relaxed, protectionism is still in vogue for many airlines and governments. Bilateral agreements, often sealed with a loving cheque, are also on the rise. The industry is seeing a notable resurgence of the opinion that shareholding and director-level input is key to a bilateral alliance — particularly by carriers like Abu Dhabi’s Etihad, even it has not yet forced its investee airlines to divest themselves of prior alliances. For example, even after Etihad investment, Virgin Australia, created new links with Singapore Airlines and Alitalia remains in SkyTeam. It’s clear that the three alliances are here to stay, even in the context of market-significant extra-alliance partnerships such as Qantas-Emirates and Delta-

AEROSPACE / NOVEMBER 2014

Virgin Atlantic. But, as they enter their third decade, alliances need to rediscover their role in an increasingly bilateral landscape.

A different world

Are those cards really worth the loyalty?

Nearly two decades on from the launch of the first global airline alliance — Star Alliance, founded on 14 May 1997 by Air Canada, Lufthansa, SAS, Thai and United — the aviation world looks very different than it did 18 years ago. Consolidation among Western carriers in particular has dominated the dynamic. Mergers between Delta-Northwest, United-Continental and American-US Airways have cut the number of international US players in half. In Europe, Air France-KLM, the Lufthansa Group and IAG (International Airlines Group) have similarly grown to market-cornering size. The LAN-TAM merger in South America, the controlled growth of the Chinese big four, and the demise of Ansett in Australia, beg the question of whether airlines today would start up airline alliances in the same way as in the late 1990s — or indeed at all. The arrival of oneworld in 1999, then comprised of American Airlines, British Airways, Canadian Airlines, Cathay Pacific and Qantas, and the 2000 creation of SkyTeam by Aeroméxico, Air France, Delta and Korean Air, set the scene for the next decade. The 2001 failure of Swissair’s ‘Hunter Strategy’ of acquiring stakes in around a dozen international airlines from SAA to THY to LOT to TAM to AOM to LTU, the resulting liquidation of its Qualiflyer Group alliance, and the absorption over the following few years of the surviving airlines into other alliances as the industry struggled to continue in the halfdecade after 9/11, only served to emphasise the importance of the alliance strategy in lean times. Yet the 2010s are different still to the 2000s. The portmanteau ‘frenemy’ would seem particularly apt to describe the frosty relationship between Qantas and Cathay Pacific, or Delta

oneworld

After the big splash of a welcoming ceremony, what is the benefit of alliances?

and Korean Air — let alone between American and Qatar, which are currently on opposite sides of the increasingly dirty Washington fight over Open Skies. Imagine the next oneworld high-level meeting when Doug Parker of American Airlines and Akbar al Baker of Qatar Airways bump into each other over the croissants.

Market domination Investment-style alliances, now returning to favour in the Middle East in particular, were the genesis of closer international working. Delta, Swissair and Singapore Airlines formed the Global Excellence Program in 1989 as part of an investment into Delta of nearly $400m (a figure that can be approximately doubled to 2015 dollars). Five years later, Delta, Austrian and Swissair — which then owned Austrian — launched what they called ‘a trilateral code-share/blocked-space agreement’ five times a week on a single Austrian Airbus A310 flying Vienna-Geneva-Washington. The addition of Sabena (also then owned by Swissair) and the grant of US Department of Transportation antitrust immunity from 1996 onwards created the ‘Atlantic Excellence‘ venture. Four months after the foundation of Star Alliance in 1997, and three years before the creation of SkyTeam (which both airlines would join), Northwest and KLM joined forces in what would become a hallmark of the international alliance: a joint venture. The move built on a 1989 20% investment in KLM and a 1993 strategic partnership between the airlines, and resulted in the US DoT granting antitrust immunity for the airlines’ entire transatlantic network. Today, antitrust-immune joint venture partnerships cover more than three quarters of the entire transatlantic market, and a weighty part of US-Japan and Europe-Japan travel, as well as from the US to Australasia. In terms of Europe-US flights, the Air FranceKLM-Delta-Northwest JV from 2008, the Atlantic Plus-Plus (A++) Air Canada-Austrian-BrusselsLufthansa-Swiss-United-Continental agreement also from 2008, and the 2010 approval of the American-British Airways-Iberia (and later US Airways and Finnair) joint venture — plus Delta's 2013 purchase of 49% of Virgin Atlantic — have @aerosociety

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sewn up the transatlantic market. Around three quarters of flights are split roughly equally between the three US carriers’ JVs, with the few remaining unaffiliated carriers picking up the rest. The impact of this oligopoly is remarkable. Barriers to entry for new airlines are not just economic, they’re political: just see the three US major carriers’ marked (and, in some ways, hypocritical) objections in Washington to transatlantic service by LCC Norwegian and the three Gulf heavyweights. It is difficult to argue that the oligopoly of the joint ventures hasn’t been to consumers’ detriment. The great circle distance between New York and Los Angeles is 28% less than that between New York and London. Both routes see significant demand and significant flight operations — yet pricing differences and fare requirements make prices significantly more than 28% greater across the Atlantic, even taking into account the increased government compliance costs and challenges of international operations.

Figuring out how to add LCCs A wrinkle in the fabric of the patchwork quilt that makes up any alliance is the passenger experience and travel proposition of low-cost carriers, particularly those owned by alliance members. Since Aer Lingus left the oneworld alliance in 2007 to focus on a low-cost operating model using its independent network over Dublin, airlines such as airberlin and Jetstar have joined, either as full members in airberlin’s case, or as affiliates, in Jetstar’s. The value of these airlines for alliance flyers is questionable, especially around lounge access, frequent flyer earn/burn and participation in marketing partnerships. The problem is not just on the alliance side, though. The social contract between passenger and airline is different if the airline is an LCC or a full service carrier. If oneworld airlines are sending passengers expecting a certain level of product and service onto Jetstar — and there are questions about the extent to which, say, international consumers notice if their four-digit oneworld airlinecoded flight number is operated by Jetstar metal — then the passenger expectations and Jetstar's passenger proposition are clearly bound to differ. www.aerosociety.com

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE THAT THE OLIGOPOLY OF THE JOINT VENTURES HASN’T BEEN TO CONSUMERS’ DETRIMENT JUNE 2015

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AIRLINES Global alliances

Founded: 1999 Members: 15 Fleet size: 3,324

Star Alliance has a similar problem with, among others, Thai Smile, Air Canada Rouge and Germanwings. Why Thai’s, Air Canada’s and Lufthansa’s low-cost arms should be included but Singapore Airlines’ Tigerair and Scoot shouldn’t be is unclear from a passenger experience perspective. SkyTeam has less of an issue with affiliated subsidiaries — but arguably more of a consistency issue between its members, which are in many ways more disparate in passenger proposition than the airlines of oneworld and the Star Alliance.

Go your own way: the Gulf Three options

Founded: 2000 Members: 20 Fleet size: 4,467

Founded: 1997 Members: 27 Fleet size: 4,338

— airberlin, Air Serbia, Air Seychelles, Jet Airways, Etihad Regional and Etihad itself — with SAA making noises about joining and Etihad CEO James Hogan effusive about its prospects: “a partner proposition for like-minded airlines which will result in synergies and efficiencies for participating airlines on the one side, and enhanced network choice, service and frequent flyer benefits for the consumer on the other.” Qatar Airways, meanwhile, has taken a third route, that of joining oneworld and purchasing an equity share of IAG, owner of British Airways, Iberia and Vueling. (The wheels-within-wheels irony of IAG currently pursuing Aer Lingus, currently part-owned by Etihad, is not lost on the industry, with Etihad suggesting it would divest itself of its Aer Lingus holding in the event of an IAG takeover.) Neither Etihad’s bilateral agreement, nor Qatar’s alliance membership with American Airlines, however, has dissuaded the mammoth US carrier from complaining vociferously about alleged subsidies given to the Gulf carriers. Lufthansa’s ongoing lobbying of the German government about competitiveness hasn’t stopped its Swiss subsidiary from operating in what could appear to be a rather predatory way in competition with Etihad Regional, the former Darwin Airline.

No matter which way you count airline size, Dubai supercarrier Emirates, unaffiliated with any of the three alliances, is enormous. Some carriers and regulators would argue that Emirates (and its colossal fleet of widebodies) is the airline equivalent of a great white shark, with Qatar Airways and Etihad both in line for an equally loaded predatory analogy. Indeed, Emirates’ size and strength has meant that it has developed bilateral relationships with airlines of all three alliances and none. The pilot fish swimming around the great white include Korean Air, South African Airways, Qantas (with which it has an extensive alliance), jetBlue, easyJet, Alaska and Virgin America, in a symbiotic relationship that funnels connecting passengers both to and from Emirates and its partners. No shark, no (or less prosperous) pilot fish. The fact that Emirates’ US partner airlines, which are the smaller carriers within the region, have been clear in their political support for Emirates after it came under fire from American, Delta and United — all larger than Emirates — is a further benefit of this strategy. Etihad Airways has taken a separate tack of investing heavily in international airlines, including but certainly not limited to, over 20% of Virgin Australia, 49% of Alitalia, and a recently approved 33% of Switzerland’s Darwin Airline, which rebranded to Etihad Regional in January 2014. Its Etihad Airways Partners covers five of the airlines

Consistency is the answer

Air Canada

How does one include low-cost subsidiaries, such as Air Canada Rouge, within an alliance?

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As alliances have developed over the last 20 years, their offering to frequent flyers and occasional travellers alike has revolved around the consistency of passenger experience. Yet it’s arguable that the alliances are now scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to as-yet-unaffiliated airlines and whether it makes sense to join together further carriers as partners. There are even questions about whether existing partnerships make sense in terms of product synchronisation — consider the premium passenger experience between Cathay Pacific and airberlin, or Asiana and Eurowings, or Korean Air and TAROM.

Airbus

Etihad has been forging its own path in creating international airline partnerships.

The principal purpose for alliances, as far as the airline’s most valuable customers — ‘precious metal’ gold, silver and platinum cardholders — are concerned, benefit reciprocity. In essence:  Earning and burning miles and points  Accruing status credits and tier points  Upgrades, complimentary, paid and paid-withpoints  Seat selection, including extra-legroom seats  Priority processing and fast track queues at the airport  Lounge access

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Connecting the dots

Access to lounge provisions is a key tenet for the alliance frequent flyer proposition.

Leaf through an airline magazine and you’ll find a myriad dots and lines connecting the world, although perhaps only the dot is shaded to denote a destination served only by a partner. If airlines’ maps covered only the destinations to which customers could be assured of the service which they purchased based on the airline’s brand and sales promises, there would be many fewer lines and many fewer dots.

Skyteam

Fail at those, and the precious metal cardholders start to feel that their loyalty has been tarnished. Of course, as any frequent flyer knows, the amount and consistency of benefits is inversely proportional to the number of alliance partner travellers through an airport. Persuading Cindy in Cincinnati, Saki in Sapporo or Birgitte in Bremen that an unfamiliar card is valid, and that its cardholder is entitled to the advertised benefits, is more spotty than it needs to be, even among alliance partners. Differing benefits on the home carrier and alliance partners are a large part of this issue — if one receives two extra bags and lounge access for plus-two when flying at home but only one bag and a plus one when away, expectations need to be clearly set, and usually aren’t. Education for staff and information for passengers are key, as are regular updates on both counts. Just ask any Austrian or Australian how many times an airport staffer has looked for the wrong country in a list, or scrutinise the list of airlines outside a lounge for merged, rebranded or defunct carriers. Varying, unpredictable and penurious rates of accruing both points and status credits equally tarnish the experience of precious metal cardholders. Delta frequent flyers travelling in SkyTeam partner Korean Air first class receive only miles, no status, and exactly the number of miles flown. No less, no more, no bonuses. Those same

travellers flying fellow SkyTeam member Air France in La Première earn 300% of the miles flown for redeemable miles, 200% of the miles flown for status qualification — plus a further 120% bonus for top-tier platinum cardholders. Even calculating benefits and earn rates can be complicated. It’s possible to buy a ticket with an Air India flight number on a Singapore Airlines aircraft operating from Japan to the USA. Whose booking class earn rates apply for a Lufthansa member on this flight? Who is the arbiter of a decision that has a significant impact on perceptions of an entire alliance? Singapore Airlines also offers a special lounge — separate from its business class offering — for frequent flyers at its Changi hub. The KrisFlyer Gold lounge, mindbogglingly inferior to the SilverKris lounge, is for some of the airline’s most loyal passengers, yet has neither lavatories nor showers for passengers departing the tropical citystate or transiting on a long-haul flight. This inconsistency is by no means unique to the three global alliances. It’s often worse in bilateral agreements, especially in the event that the bilateral carrier agreement offers more at-airport or travel benefits than a similar status on an alliance carrier would. But inconsistency is less excusable between alliance members, since part of the rationale for having an alliance is a system of synchronised benefits.

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JUNE 2015

17

CYBERSECURITY Virtual command centre

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ome 75 years ago this year, the UK faced what was the biggest aerial assault in history, when the might of Hitler’s Luftwaffe was turned against the RAF. Today, one of the threats to UK security is not waves of Heinkels but waves of increasingly sophisticated cyberwarriors. The UK armed forces which, like other advanced militaries, are now arguably dependent on IT networks to share intelligence, co-ordinate operations and command forces.

Scramble, scramble! However, while in 1940 the ‘Dowding System’ saw information about enemy air raids from radar stations and observers shared, disseminated and filtered to allow Fighter Command to quickly and efficiently direct RAF fighters to meet the threat, today the situation is more fragmented. Indeed, arguably there is not yet an equivalent military ‘cyber Bentley Priory’ or ‘digital Fighter Command HQ’ to detect attacks, inform others and direct resources. Instead today, each penetration or hack on separate networks or systems is usually considered in isolation, which can deprive decision makers of the big picture (is this a lone intruder or part of a co-ordinated strike to take down certain related systems?). It also makes responses to intrusions or attacks slow. While physical individual network security operations centres (SOC) do exist, it is almost as if the RAF was trying to fight the Battle of Britain using individual Sector Control stations, rather than as a co-ordinated strategic whole (indeed as aviation historians will know, one of the key controversies of the Battle was the co-ordination (or lack thereof) between 11 and 12 Group). While national cybersecurity co-ordination centres do exist — such as CERT-UK (formed in 2014) these are usually aimed at responding to incidents involving commercial, government and public networks — rather than the specialised, classified C4ISTAR networks that the MoD uses.

Fighting a

cyber

Battle of Britain A new ‘virtual’ cyber command centre project promises to strengthen the UK military’s network defences against hackers, spies and cyber criminals. TIM ROBINSON reports. But today, as cyberthreats increase — from Stuxnet-type viruses, to non-state hacking (witness ISIS hackers taking an entire French TV station off air), as well as the growth of ‘hybrid’ warfare which merges deniable special forces operations, propaganda and cyberwarfare — as seen in Ukraine — getting a fast response to counter intrusions will be critical. Far from the outdated image of lone 14year old hackers breaking into classified networks for fun, there are now, as one expert noted: “significant time, money and investment” going into these ‘advanced persistent threats’. Moreover, in the future, information itself held on defence IT networks may not just be the target but functions and assets themselves that rely on these data networks, such as ISTAR, UAVs, satellites or logistics. In tomorrow’s ‘hybrid’ conflicts, it may be that sophisticated enemies will not attempt to shoot down UK F-35Bs or Typhoons in the air, or even strike them on the ground with bombs and missiles, but instead seek to cripple or degrade operations by gaining access to automated logistics and support networks, rerouting spares or inserting spurious data.

Enter the VCCO However, in a £1·4m contract awarded to Airbus Group Innovation UK recently, the MoD Dstl (Defence Science and Technology Laboratory ) research lab will study a new ‘Virtual Cyber Centre of Operations’ (VCCO) — able to share and coordinate cybersecurity threats. This VCCO trial will last for 16 months and is part of an ongoing Dstl project on cybersecurity.

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Hacking a UAV A fictional but plausible scenario presented in the briefing to journalists was a hacking intrusion into a UAV C4ISTAR system. Using the informationsharing tool, which combines chat, email, video and network diagnostics all in secure links — military officers and subject matter experts were able to collaborate from multiple locations or existing security operations centres and quickly respond to the hacking attempt, while also being able to say exactly what the real-world limitations the cyber attack would have on actual UAV operations. As in 1940, where it took five minutes for enemy aircraft to cross the English Channel, speed is of the essence to combating a cyber raid effectively. In this early trial, the collaborative VCCO was able to track and resolve the issue in two hours — compared to ‘days’ using traditional physical SOCs and legacy communications, according to Airbus DS’s Jones. A quick ‘cyber early warning’ then makes it much more likely the intruders can be stopped or the attack nullified — before major damage is done. Notes Jones: “The earlier I can detect what the attacker is trying to do, the better chance I have of protecting those assets from cyber attack.” @aerosociety

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WILL IT BE A CASE OF “IF WE LOSE THE WAR IN CYBERSPACE, WE LOSE THE WAR AND WE LOSE IT QUICKLY?”

Conclusion This may be a small research grant but, like Great Britain’s battle-winning radar and observer network of 1940, this new VCCO, if successful, could be critical in giving the UK MoD cyber ‘early warning’ of a hostile power or group attempting to cripple the UK’s military defences through a ‘digital Pearl Harbour’ style co-ordinated attack in the future. Incidents such as Stuxnet, the Sony Pictures hacking and Estonian cyberattacks in 2007 are likely to be pointers towards the direction of a future all-arms conflict — where the ‘cyber’ domain is as important as the air, land and sea. Spotting early signs of a sophisticated fullscale co-ordinated cyberattack will thus be key to resilience and to making sure the UK’s armed forces remain combat-effective. To paraphrase Field Marshal Montgomery’s comments about airpower in WW2, will it be a case of: “If we lose the war in cyberspace, we lose the war and we lose it quickly” for future commanders? www.aerosociety.com

The VCCO will be a command centre in a 'virtual' place in cyberspace.

Airbus Group

At a briefing in London earlier this year, Airbus and Dstl experts explained the challenges of these new cyber threats and the need for enhanced ‘cyber situational awareness’, according to Dr Kevin Jones, Head of Airbus Group Innovations Cyber Operations, based in South Wales. Says Jones of the ‘very difficult’ challenge of cyber situational awareness: “In the modern era we have very complex digital systems that are interconnected.” He adds: “Because they are interconnected, we have to understand the whole domain and all of those assets that are interconnected and the types of attack people are going to put against those assets.” The VCCO is intended to provide a ‘virtual’ operations centre, allowing analysts from anywhere on the globe to participate in real-time responses to cyber threats or attacks. It also merges data and information from different networks, allowing specialists to spot patterns or small clues about the origin or nature of the attack. “It could be one tiny little alert buried deep in a subsystem that is the key to understanding what is going on,” says Jones.

One interesting aspect of the VCCO is it is designed to incorporate new and emerging ‘virtual reality’ technologies, such as VR goggles and cutting-edge visual data analytic tools to help teams to collaborate and understand the threats. “We need people with the right skills and right capabilities to understand what they are seeing”, explains Jones. “In a complex cyber event, it will be highly unlikely that one single person will see all the pieces of the jigsaw.” The ‘centre’ will not just be a ‘chat room’ or online forum for tech geeks solving network IT issues — but will be a 3D ’virtual space’ where avatars can ‘walk’ around to interact with other officers or specialists, or watch large screens with data feeds, videos or other information. It, says Airbus, could also be field-deployable — potentially allowing a theatre commander or their subordinates to don headsets to immerse themselves in a cyberattack ‘virtual meeting’ to understand how it might affect their operations in the real world, and to mitigate them. The virtual ops centre, it is worth remembering, must also cope with integrating data from different existing networks and SOCs, which also may be at different levels of classification. In that way, information flows are one-way up the network only and those ‘dialling in’ are only seeing the data on their screens, rather than having this fused information shared widely. Finally, this high-level VCCO may also have applications in protecting networks beyond critical MoD networks and could potentially also be extended to the wider defence industry and supply chain as well as other critical government and commercial IT infrastructure, such as nuclear power, water, electricity or banking.

JUNE 2015

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AIR TRANSPORT Pilot skills

Resilience — Recovering pilots’ lost flying skills A380 Captain RICHARD CHAMPION DE CRESPIGNY FRAeS* argues that mastering an aircraft and its systems is the only way to avoid an increase in commercial aviation accidents.

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any travellers have an increasing illogical dread of flying, despite the statistics that prove flying has never been safer1. The accident rates for passenger airlines have declined steadily since 19732 (see Figs 1 and 2). 2013 was arguably the safest year for aviation, when there were 265 casualties in 29 accidents. This compares well with survival on the world’s roads where a person dies every 30 seconds. The aviation safety record is an even more remarkable achievement given that, since 1975, the aviation industry has doubled in size every 15 years, and will continue to grow at this rate.

Aviation safer because...

... or becoming less safe? The trend of declining hull losses might reverse (increase) because:  Pilots with Multicrew Pilots Licence (MPL) are able to join commercial airlines with just 240 hours of experience, less than double the hours needed to qualify for a car drivers’ licence in Australia. (The FAA requires first officers to hold an Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) certificate, requiring 1,500 hours flying time).  Pilots are not being trained sufficiently to operate today’s complex automated aircraft.  Pilots’ manual flying skills are declining due to insufficient hands-on practice.

Via author

Aviation safety has improved due to a number of factors including:  Safer aircraft: Certification standards continue to evolve — GPS, EGPWS (Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System) and TCAS (Traffic Collision and Avoidance System) have made step improvements to safety. The new generation of highly-automated fly-by-wire aircraft are about ten times safer than their non fly-by-wire alternatives. Modern gas turbine engines fail about six times less frequently than the certification requirements

THE INDUSTRY HAS EXPERIENCED A STEADY DECLINE IN MANUAL FLYING SKILLS OVER THE PAST 20 YEARS

for basic extended range aircraft.  Government and corporate safety management systems have created effective safety cultures.  Human Factors such as Crew Resource Management (CRM), leadership and management. There are three possibilities for the future rate of hull losses. Linearly extrapolating the hull losses graph suggests that we might achieve a zero hull loss rate by 2025. Alternatively, the hull loss rate might decline to the incidence rate of ‘Black Swan events’. Perhaps an unexpected influence will cause the hull loss rate to increase.

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Hull Losses 10-year average

Fatalities 10-year average

Figure 1 Ci Fi Civilil airi transport t t ffatalities t liti (D (Data: t FSF)  Air Traffic Control agencies are putting more challenging and distracting constraints on pilots as a result of the skies becoming more congested. Airbus forecasts that the world’s passenger aircraft fleet will double when 31,400 aircraft are introduced between 2014 and 2033. China is expected to have the world’s largest domestic aircraft market within a decade. Captain Chesley (Sully) Sullenberger has definite views about the first point:3 "Every safety protocol that we have in commercial aviation is predicated on having two fully qualified pilots in every airliner cockpit, not a captain and an apprentice. A fully qualified pilot is required in both pilot seats to be able to fulfill the roles of pilot flying and of pilot monitoring. Everyone who occupies a pilot seat in an airliner must be the absolute master of that aircraft and its systems in every situation. Air France flight 447 reminds us of the need for pilots to possess the hands-on skills and situational awareness to calmly and logically assess and respond to all automation, mechanical, environmental and situational threats they face, simultaneously and continuously throughout the flight. An MPL by definition is an apprentice license, not a fully qualified pilot’s license. Not insisting on the highest levels of safety is like playing a game of Russian Roulette: the fact that one flight went safely is little comfort for the next. I have just returned from a week in Washington, DC, where I testified before the Senate and the House Aviation Subcommittees about the FAA Reauthorization Bill, specifically not allowing the regional airline industry to weaken the pilot experience requirements put in place after the Buffalo crash. The aviation industry must honor the memory of the victims of the Buffalo crash by finally achieving One Level of Safety across all airlines, major and regional, by acting on these important lessons that we have learned at great cost, literally bought with blood, and by ensuring that this preventable tragedy is never repeated. There is no cockpit seat for apprentice pilots in commercial passenger jets. The grief-stricken families of the victims deserve the best. The travelling public expect the best." @aerosociety

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Figure 2 Civil air transport hull losses (Data: FSF)

Declining legacy skills Reports of accidents and near misses in aviation indicate that pilots’ hands-on skills have deteriorated. The pilots of legacy (B707 and early B747) jets had excellent flying skills. They usually flew their approaches and landings without using autopilots and auto thrust because these systems were often too inaccurate or unreliable. These pilots built a mental body model that included their aircraft — they wore and manipulated their aircraft like it was a fitted glove. Practising manual flight proved beneficial during emergencies. These skilled pilots could recover their aircraft whether it was stalled, inverted, spinning or on fire. Legacy pilots unfortunately underrated their flying skills. They took their skills for granted and did not appreciate how much manual flight honed their skills and confidence. When automation started appearing in the new jets, these old pilots assumed that the automation should be used as much as possible at the expense of manual flight. This is when the industry’s skills started to spiral dive. The industry has experienced a steady decline in manual flying skills over the past 20 years. Second Officers are not permitted to fly big jets below 20,000ft. No pilots are permitted to manually fly in RVSM (reduced vertical separation minimum) airspace (FL290-FL410). Modern cockpit designs insidiously induce pilots to focus on just the green and magenta targets (airspeed, attitude, altitude and track) at the expense of awareness of the underlying raw data. Many airlines either frown upon or refuse to let the pilots fly manually when the autopilot and autothrust is available. Many long-haul pilots, even on a 17-hour flight, only manually fly their aircraft for 12 seconds during the departure and 15 seconds during the approach when the aircraft is between the ground level and 200ft! It is not surprising that there are pilots who have lost their skills, confidence and ability to handle the aircraft when the automation is either incapable of handling the crosswinds, turbulence, windshear or when it fails. There are pilots in long-haul airlines that have lost the ability to fly manual visual approaches. Many pilots refuse to manually fly the simulator to reduce the risk of failing their licence renewals. www.aerosociety.com

NOT INSISTING ON THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF SAFETY IS LIKE PLAYING A GAME OF RUSSIAN ROULETTE: THE FACT THAT ONE FLIGHT WENT SAFELY IS LITTLE COMFORT FOR THE NEXT Captain Chesley (Sully) Sullenberger

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AIR TRANSPORT

Hidden danger of ‘hands-off’

Pilots save lives

So the hull loss graph might be deceptive. The strong message of increasing safety might be masking an emerging but significant threat. What if the improvements in safety (due to safer aircraft and automation) is greater than the decrease in safety because of the loss of manual piloting skills? If this is the case then we should expect the hull loss rate to increase when the rate that piloting skills degrade is greater than the rate that the aircraft systems continue to improve. The signatures of fatal aviation accidents have changed over the past 25 years. Boeing4 reported that, between 2003 and 2012, the trio of loss of control inflight (24%), runway excursions (21%) and controlled flight into terrain (23%) accounted for more than two thirds of all fatal accidents (see Fig. 3 below. The first two categories might be markers for declining pilot manual flying skills. All three categories indicate that more training is required. Automated systems can increase workload and risk. The flight computers use many recipes of logic that simplify the phases for climb, cruise, descent, approach and landing. However, some recipes don’t help pilots in unusual circumstances. For example, a ‘Go Around’ and the ‘ILS PRM — Breakout Manoeuvre’ are probably the two most critical, yet poorly flown procedures when using automatics. These procedures are instinctively easier to fly manually.

The statistic that 70% of accidents are due to human causes ignores the thousands of near misses that pilots mitigate every day. Technology cannot replace pilots yet. Pilots must expect the unexpected, anticipate failures and have the confidence and courage to recover their aircraft when the unthinkable happens. Corporate survival depends upon protecting passengers’ trust in pilots. Passengers expect their pilots to be resilient, credible, empathetic and honest. Carolyn Jones, a passenger on QF32 writes:5 “There is a public perception of the pilots who routinely inhabit our skies as being — in a sense — disembodied entities in which we entrust our lives from time to time. We take for granted the expertise and wisdom that the flight deck team are expected to possess. Our long held perceptions changed dramatically on that day ….” Recent experiences prove that you breach your passengers’ trust in you at your peril.

NTSB

Pilot skills

More hands-on flying? What then are the solutions? One is obviously more hands-on time at the controls. Jim Lovell, NASA’s Commander of Apollo 13 has been flying for over 60 years. Jim has been warning of the long decline in hands-on flying skills: “I have made comments about the adverse

Boeing

Figure 3 Causes of fatal aviation accidents 2003-2012 (Boeing)

PILOTS MUST BE CONFIDENT OPERATING AUTOMATED AIRCRAFT AND CAPABLE TO DEFER TO THEIR HANDS-ON FLYING SKILLS Jim Lovell Commander, Apollo 13

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Skill fade? In 2013 an Asiana Airlines Boeing 777 crashed in San Francisco during a visual approach in good weather.

side effects that come with automation. The Apollo astronauts and ground teams practiced every procedure and every possible contingency, so that we felt comfortable in our spacecraft, capable of flying them when the automatics failed and confident of returning home. This preparation paid dividends for Apollo 13. Rich, I hope your message on the effects of too much automation in aircraft controls will sink through. Pilots must be confident operating automated aircraft and capable to defer to their hands-on flying skills.” The FAA has already responded. They released the Safety Alert for Operators #13002 (FAA) in 2013 which encourages operators to “promote manual flight operations when appropriate.” My airline has responded and we now have procedures recommending manual flight in low-risk environments. Other airlines should also respond.

‘Stress Proof Deliberate Practice’

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Achieving excellence Achieving and measuring excellence is more complicated than the paths detailed by authors Malcolm Gladwell (The Outliers), Matthew Syed (Bounce) and Geoff Colvin (Talent is Overrated). These authors espouse a simplified version of Ericsson’s mantra that you need 10,000 hours of effort to achieve an expert status in a field. It is the time spent doing DP that is important, not the time spent in the job. A normal one hour flight experience repeated ten times is not much

de Crespigny FRAeS was the Pilot In Command of Qantas QF32, an Airbus A380 flight from Singapore to Sydney on 4 November, 2010. The flight and its uncontained engine failure is detailed in his book QF32 and his website at QF32. com. Richard presented and opened the ‘The Future of Flight Training Devices’ conference at the RAeS in London in November 2014. Richard still flies the A380 and is writing three more books on resilience, aviation and science.

Expecting the unexpected In 2010 the author, crew and passengers of QF32 experienced this first hand with an uncontained engine failure.

Via author

A second solution is to introduce new training. Pilot training philosophies are out of date and should change. The aviation industry should embrace the concept of ‘Stress Proof Deliberate Practice’ as a means to achieve resilience. Harry Nelson, a former Vice President of Airbus’ flight test department has said that current training programmes that airlines have relied on for decades are too predictable and fail to improve pilot’s skills.6 Aviation training currently consists of developing a broad range of skills to an acceptable level. There is insufficient simulator time to employ the military training methods to ‘Demonstrate, then Direct, then Monitor’ sequences. Aircraft conversion courses now expose pilots just once to the very critical but improbable emergencies. Pilots have the symptoms and outcomes displayed to them and are rarely given an opportunity to repeat the sequences and to improve. This method produces adverse training outcomes, often with the pilots finishing the sequence with negative perspectives and little confidence. Many pilots finish simulator exercises feeling trepidation, under-confidence and hoping that they never see that problem again. For example, pilots receive infrequent and insufficient simulator training to master the difficult scenarios, such as flight into volcanic ash, engine fires and approaches using minimal electrics. Wouldn’t it be great if we could research, then train to become confident to handle these emergencies? Wouldn’t it be great to not just think like Neil Armstrong when he said: “Expect the Unexpected” but to be truly confident to handle it, and courageous enough to think ‘bring it on!’? Nelson called for fundamental changes to

*Captain Richard Champion

Via author

improve manual flying proficiency and other cockpit skills that have been de-emphasised over the years. He is critical of the current trainers that “focus too much on complying with regulatory requirements instead of teaching pilots new safety approaches and helping them to become resilient.” The industry is partially responding to this request. ICAO7 and IATA now recommend that airlines introduce evidence-based training (EBT) to provide competency-based training to counter known threats (see ‘ACES high’, AEROSPACE, January 2015). Something else is needed, however, because EBT does not provide additional simulator time to resolve the problem of declining hands-on skills. Nelson did not mention it but he was probably inferring that the aviation industry also needed to embrace Deliberate Practice (DP), a concept about learning devised by Anders Ericsson8. DP provides the methods to become an expert, or how to reproduce excellence reliably on demand. DP requires hard, effortful and repetitive practice that focuses on tasks beyond your current level of competence and comfort9. There are no shortcuts with DP. It requires years of struggle, sacrifice, feedback, honest often painful self-assessment and debriefing. It involves developing individual skills in a staged process of iterative and increasing successes, with the skill and confidence rising together until they peak at a condition where excellence and confidence creates courage and fearlessness. DP creates resilience by attaining excellence in an atmosphere of confidence.

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AIR TRANSPORT Pilot skills helps us feel bullet-proof, not gun shy, with the resilience to survive a black swan event. Exemplars in this category include musicians like the Beatles and Mozart, sportsmen such as Tiger Woods and Roger Federer, and pilots like Neil Armstrong, Jim Lovell and Sully Sullenberger10. Pilots need lots of simulator time to undertake SPDP and to maintain resilience.

Time for global simulation 24/7/365?

Even fixed-base flight training devices can be expensive — limiting opportunities for pilots to master the aircraft.

of a learning experience. A normal one hour flight experience is not as good as one hour of DP in the simulator. Stress Proof Deliberate Practice (SPDP) is the goal. It is to undertake DP until the task is stored in our instinctive and rational mind. We should practice the hard stressful things until we can achieve excellence with confidence and courage and with little or no effort and stress. Proxies for stress include the heart rate, sweat, iris and pupil behaviour.

Experience is no defence!

WE ARE RESILIENT WHEN WE PERIODICALLY REINFORCE THE ELEMENTS THAT MAKE US AN EXPERT

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Many doctors and pilots still make serious errors well after having reached an expert level. It turns out the experienced doctors and pilots make mistakes when they become overconfident and either cease to maintain their skills or cease to obey the rules and boundaries that they expect others to follow. Overconfidence leads to taking high risks with diminished margins for recovery. Let’s consider, for example, the old military pilot instructor who decides to let his student continue with an unstable approach below minima, believing that he (the instructor) can take over when/if required. It is no wonder that these types of pilots eventually get into trouble. There is one more caveat for resilience. While it is commendable to achieve excellence (10,000 hours of DP), it is another subject to sustain it. Having achieved excellence in the past is not a vaccine that protects us during a future crisis. I have a personal experience of this dilemma. I was very busy after the QF32 incident. I let these distractions interfere with my duties. I turned up for a simulator training exercise having not memorised two of the checklists word perfectly. I was correctly scolded and I have vowed never to embarrass myself again this way. My story is not uncommon; many management pilots have allowed their management duties to distract them from their requirement to maintain their flying skills. They too became unstuck in the simulators. Long-term resilience requires continual SPDP. We are resilient when we periodically reinforce the elements that make us an expert. SPDP builds confidence; confidence enables us to make courageous decisions, to become intrepid leaders of intrepid teams. SPDP

But current flight training systems are not producing or maintaining resilient pilots. Simulators have been used to comply with outdated regulator checking requirements instead of providing deliberate practice. Simulator times have not increased to compensate for the trending reduction in hands-on flying. Airlines in the world’s flat and competitive economies cannot fund additional simulator training. Simulators are too expensive to be used for hand-on flying and SPDP. The costs for these simulators will not reduce substantially. Aircraft manufacturers will probably be forced to act. They face an increasing risk to their brand if the hull loss rate rises because of declining pilot skills. There are significant savings and benefits for manufacturers who have the capability to solve these problems. While existing flight simulators will continue to be used to meet regulatory requirements, the future points to aircraft manufacturers likely hosting high-fidelity aircraft simulation services for pilots’ personal use anywhere and at any time. The pilot will only need personal electronic devices, virtual reality goggles, and artificial throttles and sidestick.

Expensive full flight simulators Airlines have insufficient simulator capacity to provide pilots with SPDP. One simulator is generally required for every 12 long-haul aircraft. Each simulator operates 24/7/365 providing training and checking functions for 336 pilots (12 aircraft comprising seven crews of four pilots).

Could merging low-cost consumer virtual reality technology with high-fidelity cloud-based simulation provide the perfect Stress Proof Deliberate Practice training tool?

Via author

The goal of the professional pilot should not be merely to pass annual checks but to feel bullet-proof with the resilence to survive the extremely rare ‘black swan event’.

Full-motion aircraft flight simulators (FFS) are expensive. An A380 FFS can cost up to $20m. A static desktop-style simulator can cost $1m. Between 30-40% of the cost of any aircraft simulator is the cost to licence and maintain the following data from the aircraft and OEM vendors:  Flight test data  Avionics  Engine (FADEC)  OEM parts & equipment  Interface control documents  Cockpit drawing  Flight controls  Auto flight control systems Many flight simulators use imperfect hardware and software. Flight simulator manufacturers save licence fees by reverse-engineering hardware and software. This is a very expensive initial process, however, once the data is compiled, this method saves 30-40% of the final cost for each simulator. Vendors reverse-engineer the equipment generally without prior consent and so may also face legal fees. Reverse-engineering aircraft hardware and software only makes commercial sense where the simulator vendor has many customers. But reverse-engineered software will never replicate the complexity and features locked and protected inside aircraft flight, navigation and performance computers:  Reverse-engineered components are only designed to mimic observed functions (visible outside the black box).  It is impossible to discover, reverse-engineer and mimic ALL the logic and protections that reside inside a black box.  Vendor updates require the entire and costly reverse-engineering process to be repeated from the start. Simulation fidelity and low-cost are mutually exclusive. High-fidelity simulators that use vendor data could cost 66% more than reverse engineered simulators. Simulator manufacturers will cease to reverse-engineer aircraft as aircraft systems become more complex.

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Pilots need high-fidelity software simulators. Could the solution lie outside the domain of the third-party simulator vendors? What if we could simulate our aircraft flight from anywhere in the world at any time for little cost? Imagine a pilot sitting in her hotel room in Dubai, preparing to fly to London during the freezing dark winter:  She puts on a set of stereo high definition virtual reality goggles and headphones.  She secures the thrust quadrant and sidestick to the desk top.  She connects one or more personal computers and electronic devices together (to augment the processing power).  She connects to a cloud-based high-fidelity simulation server.  She practices cold weather procedures, Heathrow’s low-visibility approaches, and emergencies.  Her simulation is 100% technically correct using the aircraft vendor's data and 90% realistic using sight and sound although no movement. The stereo high definition video provides a better outside view than what is displayed in current $20m simulators.  Simulation costs are paid by the airline. Today’s imagination is tomorrow’s reality. It will be a short time before pilots enjoy high-fidelity personal simulation anywhere, anytime for little cost. This disruptive technology will provide the solution to declining hands-on flying skills and attaining Stress Proof Deliberate Practice. It provides the path for all pilots to achieve what we have admired in Neil Armstrong, Jim Lovell and Sully Sullenberger — resilience.

References

YouTube @aerosociety

The future: personal simulators?

facebook.com/raes

WHAT IF WE COULD SIMULATE OUR AIRCRAFT FLIGHT FROM ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD AT ANY TIME FOR LITTLE COST? www.aerosociety.com

1. Keep Calm, qf32.aero/2015/03/28/keep-calm. de Crespigny, R. (2015). 2. Number of fatal airliner (14+ passengers) hull-loss accidents and fatalities per year. http://aviation-safety.net/statistics/period/ stats.php?cat=A1: Flight Safety Foundation, FSA, (2014). 3. Technology cannot-replace-pilots. linkedin.com/pulse/ technology-cannot-replace-pilots-capt-sully-sullenberger, Sullenberger, C. (2015). 4. Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team Aviation Occurrence Categories. http://www.boeing.com/news/ techissues/pdf/statsum.pdfhttp://www.boeing.com/news/ techissues/pdf/statsum.pdf. Boeing. (2012). 5. QF32, Sydney: Pan Macmillan. de Crespigny, R. (2012). 6. Airbus Official Urges Major Pilot Training Changes. http:// www.wsj.com/articles/airbus-official-urges-major-pilot-trainingchanges-1428853600: Wall Street Journal, Pasztor, A. (2015). 7. Evidence Based Training (EBT). EBT ICAO Manual Doc 9995.en.pdf: ICAO. ICAO. (n.d.). 8. The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance). http://projects.ict.usc.edu/itw/gel/ EricssonDeliberatePracticePR93.pdf. Ericsson, A K. (1993). 9. The Making of an Expert. Ericsson, A K. (2007). 10. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/technology-cannot-replacepilots-capt-sully-sullenberger JUNE 2015

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BUSINESS Aerospace investment market

Aerospace and Defence: An Attractive Investment Opportunity

DC ADVISORY looks at consolidation trends in the aerospace and defence sectors.

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trong underlying market dynamics, cash rich strategic buyers and increased interest from financial sponsors have fuelled acquisition activity and raised valuations in the commercial aerospace sector over the past 18 months. Valuations in the defence sector are also recovering after a sharp decline caused by a reduction in overall government spending and a lack of visibility on defence budgets. Consolidation is likely to be spurred further by greater clarity over budgets enabling corporates to continue to reposition their businesses towards high growth areas. For investors in the sector, it is worth considering how long the elevated deal volumes can continue and whether valuations have already peaked. For those looking to exit, understanding strategic bidder motivations is critical to achieving a premium valuation.

FAVOURABLE DYNAMICS ARE THE FOUNDATION UPON WHICH INVESTMENT IN THE SECTOR IS LED

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Commercial aerospace Michelle Le Merre, Director of Aerospace and Defence at DC Advisory, believes commercial aerospace remains an attractive market for investment: “Improving world economic conditions, surging demand in emerging markets, low interest rates and fuel costs and readily available financing have led to record-high order books and growth in expected annual commercial aerospace deliveries.”

Boeing and Airbus currently have backlogs of 5,789 and 6,386 aircraft respectively, and will soon be delivering two aircraft per day combined in order to support the global traffic growth forecast of 6.1% CAGR between 2015 and 2019. Le Merre also points out that: “the cyclicality of the industry has decreased due to more responsible OEM production and a reduction in aircraft cancellations. These favourable dynamics are the foundation upon which investment in the sector is built”.

Strategics are pricing in synergies The improvement in equity market valuations has led to greater confidence and an increase in mergers and acquisitions activity. In 2014, 93 transactions were completed in the global aerospace sector, a 63% increase in transaction volumes on 2013 and a ten-year high (see Fig. 1). Over the past 12 months, businesses have changed hands at an average last 12 month earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation multiple (LTM EBITDA) of 11.8x, more than one turn above the five-year average. US buyers have led the consolidation, acquiring over 50% of businesses sold, followed by buyers from the UK and France in second and third, respectively. Strategic purchasers are looking to use their estimated $80bn of cash to acquire in areas of increased growth such as IFE, titanium, composites

EV / NTM EBITDA May-15 9.8x

Jan-05 9.7x

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20 19 and aftermarket servicing. They are in 2014. They have significant 18 16 16 16 14 10 6 aggressively pursuing businesses capital available to deploy and are 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 that have premium platform increasingly able to compete head-toPE Total positions and are prepared to price head with strategic buyers on pricing Source: Mergermarket, DC analysis Note: Aerospace subsector transactions from January 2005 to December 2014; EV / NTM EBITDA represents average aerospace sector synergies into their valuations in as a result of increasingly attractive trading multiples order to secure an acquisition. financing markets. Figure 1. Commercial Alcoa’s recent acquisition of RTI International Metals Ciara O’Neill, Co-Head of DC Advisory’s Debt Advisory aerospace deal volumes for $1.5bn (13.1x EBITDA) is a good example. Group, comments that: “although not enjoying the versus share price RTI expands Alcoa’s midstream and downstream same depth of liquidity as the US financing markets, performance. titanium offering, builds out its value-added solutions European debt financing markets are very buoyant. and provides access to machining, Ti-Aluminide There is strong competition for performing issuers and additive manufacturing. The acquisition also among both bank and institutional investors, leading to allows Alcoa to capture growth through its long-term increasing leverage levels, tighter pricing and minimal contracts (65% of RTI’s revenues) and advanced covenants”. technologies. Combined with Alcoa, RTI has the Financial sponsors have earmarked a significant potential to increase its revenues by 50% in five amount of their deployable capital for investment in years driven by overall market growth and market Europe, with European sponsors estimated to have share gains. Estimated synergies could also be as $135bn of capital available (see Fig. 2). Several high as $100m, thus increasing EBITDA margins to European mid-market sponsors have particular 25% from their current level of 14.5%. interest in the aerospace and defence These attributes serve to justify the sector, such as Bridgepoint, LDC, Inflexion Dry powder ($bn) premium valuation Alcoa placed upon and Better Capital. Their interest is 200 the business. complemented by global serial aerospace 171 167 While premium valuations are and defence investors such as Carlyle and 148 160 137 133 128 135 123 117 attainable, it is worth noting that the Warburg Pincus, as well as an increasing 116 120 89 increased competitive tension and number of mid-market US funds who have 80 valuation expectations have deterred successfully acquired European aerospace 51 50 40 some bidders, particularly in the midbusinesses such as Arlington Capital market from participating in auction Partners and American Industrial Partners. 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD processes. Simon Tilley, Head of European Financial 2015 Source: Preqin Sponsor Coverage at DC Advisory, notes that: “as competition for US aerospace Don’t forget the Asian Figure 2. Financial sponsor businesses has intensified, US sponsors have angle dry powder to be invested. increasingly been looking for European targets in the sector, in the hope of achieving a ‘better There is also the continued emergence of Asian deal’. The consequence is that competition in the interest in the sector; both Chinese and Japanese European market is also hotting up. One recent strategic acquirers are increasingly participating, and auction process had nine financial sponsors in being successful, in Western aerospace auctions. the second round all completing diligence and Sumitomo Bakelite’s $260m acquisition of Vaupell preparing legal documentation. To incur such costs (aircraft interior composites), AVIC’s acquisition of despite the competitive nature of the process further Align (component distribution) and HAECO’s $390m demonstrates their keenness and commitment to acquisition of TIMCO Aviation Services (MRO) are acquisitions in the commercial aerospace market.” just some of the recent deals in the sector involving Asian acquirers. Tosh Kojima, Head of DC Advisory’s Asia Focus Group, notes that: “Asian acquirers Greater defence budget clarity have a wall of capital available for investing in key technologies, with aerospace being a priority. In The defence sector has benefited from short-term particular, Chinese investors are keen to take the US Department of Defense (DoD) budget clarity, technical know-how back home and produce from a despite large funding increases being unlikely. The lower cost base. We spend a significant amount of 2015 total DoD budget stands at $560bn, including our time educating our clients on how to capture the $64bn for overseas contingency operations, upside of Asian interest in their businesses.” representing a base discretionary budget in line with 2014 (a 1.7% real-term reduction). Uncertainty around defence spending in the Significant financial appetite UK remains with the 2015 Strategic Defence and Security Review to be completed and the possibility Financial sponsors are underpinning transaction of the UK reducing its expenditure below its NATO valuations and adding to the competitive tension commitment of 2% of GDP. European defence of auction processes in the sector, despite having budgets remain similarly constrained, with France only acquired c.20% of aerospace businesses sold

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BUSINESS Aerospace investment market

US DEFENCE CORPORATES HAVE UNDERTAKEN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PORTFOLIO RESHAPING WITH A SERIES OF DISPOSALS AND SPIN-OFFS ACROSS THE SECTOR

being the only NATO member to maintain its 2% commitment. The stability provided by the US DoD has offset the uncertainty in Europe to some extent. This is evidenced by a rebound in trading multiples across the sector, now at a level above the longterm average of 8.7 x NTM EBITDA. The rebound in valuation is a contrast to the lack of growth in the sector and highlights the discount institutional investors placed on defence businesses as a result of the uncertainty around US defence spending.

Another wave of consolidation? There has been little consolidation at the US prime level throughout the recent defence sector downturn. This is in contrast to the radical transformation that followed the end of the Cold War and former US Defense Secretary William Perry’s infamous ‘Last Supper’ where the US primes reportedly received clear supportive signals about potential consolidation in the sector. As a result, the number of US primes reduced from 16 in 1991 to the current level of six and the top ten suppliers to the US DoD now have a 60% market share. Chris Oliver, Co-Head of Aerospace and Defence at Sagent Advisors, explains that: “during the recent downturn, the US DoD did not want to put their supplier base at risk by further reducing the number of US primes. They therefore discouraged any consolidation. Instead, US defence corporates have undertaken a significant amount of portfolio reshaping with a series of disposals and spin-offs across the sector. We expect more to come, including in Europe where the portfolio reshaping has been taking place at a slow pace.”

The search for growth Corporates in the defence sector have been turning their focus towards shareholder dividends and share buybacks due to their large cash balances and relatively limited organic growth opportunities. More recently, however, growth via M&A is back on the agenda.

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A number of defence companies are looking to expand operations in specific high-growth areas such as cyber security, intelligence, big data, cloud, unmanned systems, health IT and C4ISR. Consolidation in defence services below the prime level will also continue in order to achieve scale, provide antiguous capabilities and enhance financial efficiencies. The European operations of US defence companies and European defence companies, are focusing on international expansion, particularly in the Middle East and India. Ms Le Merre points out that: “US defence companies recognise that a ‘one product fits all’ approach does not necessarily work for international growth. US corporates have encountered difficulties when trying to sell ITAR controlled products abroad. As a result, they are increasingly looking to acquire European companies which have the advantage of well-established international customer relationships and complementary non-ITAR controlled products.” A number of European defence companies have also been rebalancing their portfolios to diversify into complementary commercial end-markets such as aerospace, energy, commercial cloud security, helicopter services and civil communications. This has enabled them to slightly reduce their reliance on the defence sector and reposition in higher growth markets.

Looking forward Both the aerospace and defence sectors offer attractive investment opportunities and consolidation prospects in the near term horizon. However, purchasers remain focused on expanding into specific niches where enhanced growth can be achieved and selectively pursue opportunities where they believe they can successfully compete. Broader sector dynamics alone do not lead to high valuations; such valuations are realised in areas considered to be of strategic priority.

Afterburner

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Diary 8 June Sir Sydney Camm Lecture: Air Power and the Defence Aerospace Industry in the Whole Force Era Air Marshal Sir Baz North KCB OBE MA FRAeS RAF, Deputy Commander Capability and Air Member for Personnel & Capability, Royal Air Force

A Royal Air Force Reaper RPAS at Kandahar Airfield in Afghanistan. Crown copyright/Sergeant Ross Tilly (RAF).

42 Message from RAeS - President “It is a great honour to have been elected as your President for the next year and I am looking forward to a busy and exciting time. Firstly I must thank Bill Tyack for his tireless efforts over the past year and praise him for the leadership he has shown. I have a hard act to follow.”

- Chief Executive “Martin Broadhurst succeeds Bill as the Society’s President and I hope both he and his wife Lesley have a most enjoyable and rewarding year in office. Martin is a popular and very well-known industry figure and I am sure his knowledge and experience will be of great assistance during his period of office.”

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44 Book Reviews

50 IT FLIES USA

Flying Fast Jets, Three Wings for the Red Baron, Soyuz — 1967 Onwards (all Models), The Next War in the Air and The Coming of the Aerial War.

A report of this year’s Merlin Flight Simulation Group’s IT FLIES USA Competition.

47 Library Additions

52 Diary

Books submitted to the National Aerospace Library.

Find out when and where around the world the latest aeronautical and aerospace lectures and events are happening.

48 Cambridge Branch

55 Corporate Partners

Reports on the 15th Sir Arthur Marshall Lecture and the Sir Michael Marshall Lecture Competition.

Two new members joined the Society’s Corporate Partner Scheme.

49 Astro Pi

56 Elections

Using space to encourage children into engineering.

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New Society members elected in the past month.

JUNE 2015

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Afterburner

Message from RAeS OUR PRESIDENT Martin Broadhurst

WE ARE NOT PURELY A SOCIETY OF ENGINEERS AND AVIATORS, ALTHOUGH, OF COURSE, BOTH THOSE GROUPS ARE IMMENSELY IMPORTANT

It is a great honour to have been elected as your President for the next year and I am looking forward to a busy and exciting time. Firstly I must thank Bill Tyack for his tireless efforts over the past year and praise him for the leadership he has shown. I have a hard act to follow. I am pleased to say that my Presidency coincides with a period that sees the Society in very good heart. It is clear from the attendance at this year’s banquet that we continue to enjoy support at the highest levels of government, industry and academia. It is also clear from the breadth and quality of our output and events at national and branch level that we are delivering strongly as a vibrant learned society and I have taken it as one of the challenges for my Presidential year to continue to improve our use of digital media to ensure that the vast range of content is made available even more widely. Over the course of the past year, I have been working with Council and staff colleagues to review our strategy and in writing my first piece for AEROSPACE I wanted to reflect on one aspect of the Society’s purpose as embodied in our ‘strap line’ which runs: “We are the world’s only learned society dedicated to the entire aerospace community.” This is important — we are not purely a society of engineers and aviators, although, of course, both those groups are immensely important. Our remit runs across a huge range of activity as evidenced by our 24 Specialist Groups encompassing, among

many others — air law, air power, air medicine, air traffic, space, unmanned systems and weapon systems. In other words the whole of the wider community with a connection to aerospace and aviation. Despite this broad appeal our recruitment of younger members is not as successful as we would like. We need to find new ways of connecting with the under 30s. Not just the engineers seeking chartered status but the buyers, the contract staff, the facilities people and many other disciplines. They are all equally part of our aerospace and aviation community and should share in the peer recognition that membership brings, but more importantly be enjoined in the ethos of professionalism so well promoted by the Society. During my year the Society will major on unmanned systems and this will be the subject of the President’s Conference in October this year. Apart from the normal focus on platforms we will seek to engage with partners in the tech sector to develop a deeper understanding of applications and will encourage debate around some of the ethical and societal challenges along with the implications for traditional professions and skills. The Society and the disciplines it represents may be 150 years old but here has never been a more exciting or challenging time to play our part in contributing to the security and prosperity of the world in which we live. I look forward to meeting as many of you as possible during the next 12 months.

NEW PRESIDENT

Martin Broadhurst OBE MA CDIR FRAeS FIOD Martin Broadhurst was educated at William Hulme’s School and Fitzwilliam College, Cambridge. He joined Marshall Aerospace as a Management Trainee in 1975 and following a number of roles with the company, including Production Director and Director of Programmes, was appointed as Chief Executive in February 1996. During his time as Chief Executive he served on the Group Holdings Board. Following his retirement from his role as Chief Executive of Marshall Aerospace, he was appointed, during the early part of 2011, as Chairman of the Centre for Engineering and Manufacturing Excellence (CEME) and was elected to the Governing Council of the Royal Aeronautical Society and served as Chairman of the Membership

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Services Board. Martin is also Vice President of the Cambridge Branch of the Society. Martin was appointed as a non-executive director of Ultra Electronics Holdings plc in July 2012 where he serves on the audit, remuneration and nomination committees of the board. Martin has served as a member of the European Aerospace and Defence (ADS) Customer Services Commission and is a former treasurer of A|D|S. He has also served as Chairman of the Cambridgeshire Training and Enterprise Council and as Chairman of Connexions. Martin was awarded the OBE in the 2004 Queen’s Birthday Honours List for services to the Aerospace Industry and is a Freeman of the City of London. He qualified as a Chartered Director in 2006.

OUR CHIEF EXECUTIVE Simon C Luxmoore

UNDOUBTEDLY BILL WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TIRELESSLY FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE SOCIETY BUT, ON BEHALF OF ALL THE STAFF, I WOULD LIKE TO THANK HIM FOR HIS ENERGY AND SUPPORT DURING HIS TERM OF OFFICE Find us on Twitter

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 As he entered the last two weeks of his year as our President, Bill Tyack called me to ask if there was anything else I could think of that he needed to do or that he had left undone. This call came the day after he had completed a 100-mile sponsored cycle ride for a prostate cancer charity and five consecutive days of ‘duty’ at No.4 Hamilton Place. For those members who know Bill as well as I do, this will come as no surprise whatsoever but, for those who don’t, it is typical of how he has conducted his Presidency. Together with his wonderfully supportive wife Judy, Bill has, as they say, ‘put in a tremendous shift’ as our President, travelling extensively at home and abroad seeking to advance the aims and objectives of the Society. Undoubtedly Bill will continue to work tirelessly for the benefit of the Society but, on behalf of all the staff, I would like to thank him for his energy and support during his term of office.  Martin Broadhurst succeeds Bill as the Society’s President and I hope both he and his wife Lesley have a most enjoyable and rewarding year in office. Martin is a popular and very well-known industry figure and I am sure his knowledge and experience will be of great assistance during his period of office. Martin will, of course, have the additional duties associated with presiding over the first months of the Society’s 150-year celebrations and, at the time of writing, I have already received an invitation for Martin and Lesley to attend celebrations planned by our New Zealand Division.  It was a delight to attend the Gloucester and Cheltenham Branch’s Folland Lecture which, this year, was delivered by Past-President Tony Edwards in celebration of R J Mitchell. The ensuing dinner was thoroughly enjoyable and, being somewhat parochial, I must thank Messier-Dowty for supporting no fewer than seven tables which included both the longest serving and newest of Branch members. Gary Murden, the Branch’s Chair and long-standing Society member reflected that, at one stage or another, he had been employed by most of the companies there present and, indeed, was now on his second circuit. That’s what you call personal dedication to the corporate cause of your local Branch. Well done Gary Murden!  It has been interesting to play a small part in the competition for selecting an external publishing partner for The Aeronautical Journal. Professors Peter Bearman, Mike Graham and Chris Atkin have clearly been to the fore in this process supported by Paula Barratt and our internal publications staff. The ‘beauty parade’ has been completed and I anticipate the Journal’s Editorin-Chief and Editorial Board will be making a

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Paul Griffiths, CEO, Dubai Airports, following his Corporate Partner Briefing on 27 April.

proposal to the Board of Trustees, hopefully for their endorsement, during the month of June.  Paul Griffiths, CEO of Dubai Airports, delivered an excellent Corporate Partner Briefing at No.4 Hamilton Place recently, describing not only the vision for and development of their global hub but also facilitating a wide-ranging discussion on airport capacity. This was followed by an informal dinner hosted by Bill Tyack, supported by software provider MOHEKA and attended by a number of our UK airport CEOs and senior representatives from major airlines; a further example of the Society providing neutral territory for important debate.  The annual Ballantyne Day organised for schools was once again most successful thanks to the excellent organisation of Roz Azouzi and her team, and the support for our friends at Raytheon and in particular Nick West. One personal frustration I have, especially when you have a waiting list, is the tendency for schools to cancel at very short notice which not only leaves a gap in the audience but also denies others the chance of being present. However, it is pleasing to see the increase in quality and wider reach of recent events and to receive outstanding comments from teachers and students.  One of the pleasures of my particular role is meeting with a wide range of organisations to share experience and also, on occasion, to provide help and advice. Two such meetings were particularly interesting this last month, first with Paul Fletcher, a former colleague of mine at the Dowty Group and now CEO of the British Computer Society — the Chartered Institute for Information Technology, and secondly with Amy Littleton, the Development Manager for The Military Wives Choir Foundation. In both instances much useful information was shared — benchmarking I think they used to call it! JUNE 2015

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Afterburner

Book Reviews FLYING FAST JETS Human Factors and Performance Limitations By D G Newman Ashgate Publishing Limited, Wey Court East, Union Road, Farnham, Surrey GU9 7PT, UK. 2014. 158pp. Illustrated. £60. ISBN 978-1-4094-6793-9. It is a select few who succeed as fast jet pilots and still fewer who have combined this skill with a medical training. In fulfilling both roles the author has been able to give a first-hand account of the operational demands placed on a fast jet pilot together with the physiological problems and limitations that are involved in flying fast jet aircraft. The approach taken in the book to human performance limitations is predominantly physiological rather than psychological. There are separate chapters devoted to the hazards associated with hypoxia, the high G environment of manoeuvring flight and the potential for of spatial disorientation together with discussion of the countermeasures designed to mitigate their effects. Throughout the book there are multiple references to source material. The chapter on situational awareness provides an opportunity to describe the cockpit environment of a modern fast jet and to show how, through multi-

Austrian Air Force Typhoons. Eurofighter/Geoffrey Lee.

It is a select few who succeed as fast jet pilots and still fewer who have combined this skill with a medical training

function screens, head-up and helmet-mounted displays, aircraft performance, navigational and tactical information is presented to the pilot. Its complexity can impose perceptual and cognitive demands that are potentially overwhelming. A technological solution, though still in its infancy, is that of sensor fusion whereby information derived from multiple sources is combined into a single display. However, the pilot still needs to be able to select from the large amount of available information what is currently relevant without losing sight of what may soon become so. There are chapters dealing with life support systems and escape from aircraft and finally a description of the selection and training programme required for a pilot to meet the physical and cognitive demands of the fast jet environment. Given the complexity of fast jet operations, it is unsurprising that it takes four years of training before a pilot becomes even the most junior member of a fast jet squadron. As well as giving the general reader an insight into the world of high performance military aircraft, this book will be a useful handbook for those more actively involved in whatever capacity on a fast jet squadron. Rollin Stott

THREE WINGS FOR THE RED BARON Von Richtofen, Strategy, Tactics and Airplanes By L Bennett Helion & Company Limited, 26 Willow Road, Solihull, West Midlands B91 1UE, UK. 2014. 237pp. Illustrated. £25. ISBN 978-1-907677-13-7. This is the first of the author’s ‘Red Baron’ books and the most interesting. Leon Bennett is an aeronautical engineer and ballistics researcher and so well qualified to write a book of this kind. The book opens with an irrelevant — and wrong in its conclusions — chapter on Richtofen’s death but then moves on to discuss early triplane experiments which culminated in the Sopwith Triplane. The British decided not to continue with the Sopwith, despite its successes. But, on the other side of the lines, Richtofen had been impressed. The poor performance of the latest in the Albatros series, the Va, which is explained in detail, formed the background to Richtofen’s campaign for a triplane. As the author makes clear, the

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Fokker DrI replica. Matthias Kabel.

The British decided not to continue with the Sopwith, despite its successes .But on the other side of the lines Richtofen had been impressed

triplane’s performance had already been analysed by the Germans as well as the British and had been found to be of significantly inferior to that of a biplane. Except, that is, in two areas. The Fokker DrI triplane excelled in the climb and in manoeuvrability, in particular ‘180 turn’ time and pursuit circle performance. It was also able to ‘hang on the propeller’ and shoot upwards, thus overcoming the problem of bullet drop caused by gravity. Werner Voss’s last fight against SE5As of 56 Squadron was a dramatic illustration of its qualities but also showed its poor speed. The author discusses why this appealed to Richtofen at the time, in terms that are technical, yet understandable to the nonexpert. Air combat tactics and ballistics, problems with rotary engines and structural safety are also covered. The book is profusely illustrated with photographs, drawings, graphs and diagrams, many by the author. This is not a book for the casual reader but there is plenty to interest the WW1 aviation aficionado. Christian Busby

SOYUZ — 1967 ONWARDS (ALL MODELS) An insight into Russia’s flagship spacecraft, from Moon missions to the International Space Station. Owners’ Workshop Manual series By D Baker Haynes Publishing, Sparkford, Yeovil, Somerset BA22 7JJ, UK. 2014. 172pp. Illustrated. £21.99. ISBN 978-0-85733-405-3. If you were ever lucky enough to be selected for a flight into space the least you would expect would be a handy manual explaining how the vehicle for the hazardous journey worked and how to operate the various systems and onboard devices. Unfortunately for Soyuz there has never been an official manual or even a detailed press guide. The training has always relied on a repetitive learning process for each system or procedures followed by oral, written and practical exams, and all in Russian. As Britain’s first space explorer Helen Sharman explains in her Foreword, she longed for something as detailed as this manual in preparations for her Soyuz T-12 flight to Mir in 1991. The Soyuz spacecraft, designed at the height of the Cold War, became the mainstay for transporting Soviet cosmonauts into low Earth orbit during the last two decades of the Soviet Union and today continues to be at the forefront of human space transportation, nearly 50 years after it first flew. The key to the continued success of Soyuz has been its versatility. Originally devised for manned flights to the Moon as well as Earth orbital missions, Soyuz has survived by constantly adapting the same basic design to new goals. Retaining the capability of rendezvous and docking and supporting up to a three-person crew has not changed since the early missions in the late 1960s. What has improved are the various onboard systems and crew facilities enabling the spacecraft to survive the cancellation of the Soviet manned lunar landing programme, the expansion and extension of space station operations, inclusion of international crew members and the development of unmanned applications, including a reliable and regular freighter service to the International Space Station (ISS). Originally a competitor to the American Gemini and Apollo Command and Service Modules, Soyuz has survived the Shuttle era, the breakup of the Soviet Union and the challenge of co-operating with international partners on ISS. This fascinating book reviews the twists and turns in the chequered history of Soyuz. Its place in Russian spaceflight history is covered in the Find us on Twitter

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Above left: Soyuz spacecraft in Earth orbit, photographed from the US Apollo spacecraft during the joint US-USSR Apollo-Soyuz Test Project (ASTP) docking mission in Earth orbit, 18 July 1975. Above right: The Soyuz TMA-08M spacecraft departs from the International Space Station’s Poisk Mini-Research Module 2 (MRM2) and heads toward a landing in a remote area near the town of Zhezkazgan, Kazakhstan, on 11 September 2013. Both NASA.

opening chapter recalling the early years of the Soviet space programme and pioneering flights in the Vostok and Voskhod spacecraft. Author David Baker, a respected and well-qualified space engineer, has crafted not only informative history but also a handy quick reference guide to each of the six main variants of Soyuz. These chapters are supported by four additional features detailing the basic design and main components and systems of the spacecraft, the techniques of rendezvous and docking, 1975 Apollo Soyuz Test Project — which created the genesis for the current co-operation on ISS — and the ingenuous design of the unmanned Progress freighter. The illustrations are especially useful in revealing the onboard systems and procedures and, together with the photographs, offer a rare glimpse into the normally secret world of Soviet and Russian manned spaceflight. David J Shayler FBIS Council Member, British Interplanetary Society Chair, BIS Soviet/Chinese Technical Forum

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Left: ESA astronaut Tim Peake training in the Soyuz simulator in Star City, Russia, in September 2010. ESA.

Unfortunately for Soyuz there has never been an official manual or even a detailed press guide. The training has always relied on a repetitive learning process for each system or procedures followed by oral, written and practical exams, and all in Russian JUNE 2015

45

Afterburner

Book Reviews THE NEXT WAR IN THE AIR Britain’s Fear of the Bomber, 1908-1941 By B Holman Ashgate Publishing Limited, Wey Court East, Union Road, Farnham, Surrey GU9 7PT, UK. 2014. 290pp. £75. ISBN 978-1-4094-4733-7.

THE COMING OF THE AERIAL WAR Culture and the Fear of Airborne Attack in Inter-War Britain By M Haapamaki I B Tauris & Co Ltd, 6 Salem Road, London W2 4BU, UK. 2014. 255pp. £58. ISBN 978-1-78076418-4. The bombing of London during the First and Second World Wars continues to inspire studies about its influence on the concept of strategic bombing and the defence measures required to preserve civilian morale. They have been joined by two new books, one by Australian historian Dr Brett Holman, the other by Canadian academic Dr Michele Haapamaki. While neither claim to have unearthed extensive new material, both books represent significant studies, supported by extensive notes and wide bibliographies. With Haapamaki these make up 20% of the book while there are frequent notes at the foot of Holman’s pages. Whatever the common impulse both are distinctive in their approach and style. Haapamaki is largely concerned with the range of London’s civilian defence measures and she acknowledges that her appreciation of the subject was enhanced by being in London during the terrorist attacks of 7 July 2005 that enabled her to better understand the responses then and prior to WW2. In her book she shows how in a democracy like Britain people of opposing beliefs reacted differently to the proposed arrangements for air raid shelters. She selected two individuals, C G Grey, the strongly right-wing and pro-Fascist editor of The Aeroplane and the left wing scientific polymath J B Haldane, with Grey supporting the ad hoc arrangements for shelters in peoples’ homes compared with the vision of the British Communist Party (shared by Haldane) for massive shelters able to hold whole communities like those drawn up by the London Borough of Finsbury. This led her to conclude that, in Britain, the provision of such shelters came down to “questions

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of patriotism, morale and British national identity, rather than technical feasibility.” She also draws attention to the psychological measures used by the British Government to boost civilian morale by circulating the image of a Peoples’ War that painted citizens as active participants in the wartime state, rather than the anxious individuals of the 1930s. In this context, when British public confidence was severely tested by the V-1 and V-2 attacks late in WW2, she suggests that one of the main reasons British morale held was that people believed they were taken into the Government’s confidence as never before. Holman adopts a somewhat broader approach and he is more concerned with offensive measures affecting aviation policy, in particular how the bombing during WW1 led to fears in the early 1930s about a knockout blow from the air due to the ineffectiveness of defences because it had already been seen how a relatively small force of bombers could do massive damage. Such apprehensions, combined with Germany’s rising military ambitions, made bombardment from the air appear as a classic strike weapon, although it was hoped that the RAF’s possession of a bomber force could deter such would-be attacks. Holman dismissed the unreal hopes of defending Britain through a system of collective security supported by an international air force working for the League of Nations and concluded that belief in a knockout blow faded because of the more extensive Civil Defence measures together with the expansion of the RAF, despite its overemphasis on bombers until 1938. He acknowledges that, even during the Blitz, Britain was never struck by a knockout blow and, in the end, it proved something of a myth. Conversely Allied hopes during WW2 for Bomber Command (aided by US air forces) to end the war without a D-Day invasion were never realised. Holman ends by observing that the fears of pre-war air prophets for an all-out blow could have been realised by nuclear war. But this has not happened either and, with a plurality of nuclear powers, it is virtually unthinkable. In their different fashion both books, working in a much visited area of study, illustrate the massive influence played by London on Britain’s aerial strategy, however much the reality of the attacks upon it fell short, as did the fears and imaginings during the interwar period. As such, they well deserve to be read.

Bomb damage in south London, 25 October 1940. RAeS (NAL).

The bombing of London during the First and Second World Wars continues to inspire studies about its influence on the concept of strategic bombing and the defence measures required to preserve civilian morale

Peter Reese AMRAeS

Library Additions BOOKS GENERAL IHS Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft: Development & Production 2015-2016. Edited by P Jackson et al. IHS Global Limited, Sentinel House, 163 Brighton Road, Coulsdon, Surrey CR5 2YH, UK. 2015. 1012pp. Illustrated. £780 plus £10 postage/packing. ISBN 978-0-7106-3135-0.

Clerkenwell House, Clerkenwell Green, London EC1R 0HT, UK. 2015. 208pp. Illustrated. £20. [Discounted price of £15 inclusive of free UK postage/packing available to RAeS members via http://halebooks.com using wmodelplanes15 promotion code] ISBN 978-0-71981540-9.

SW1V 4RW, UK. 984pp. £139. [20% discount available to RAeS members via www. artechhouse.com using RAES2014 promotion code]. ISBN 978-0-472-11935-6.

Institute Press, 291 Wood Road, Annapolis, MD 21402, USA. 2015. Distributed by Eurospan Group, 3 Henrietta Street, London WC2E 8LU, UK. 239pp. £33.48. ISBN 978-1-61251-804-6.

ROTORCRAFT

AIRCRAFT DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION

Aerospace Engineering Pocket Reference. S Tavares. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300, Boca Raton, FL, 33487-2742, USA. 2015. Distributed by Taylor & Francis Group, 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon OX14 4RN, UK. 434pp. Illustrated. £31.99. [20% discount available to RAeS members via www. crcpress.com using AKP32 promotion code]. ISBN 978-14987-0364-2.

So You Want To Be

An Engineer?

AIRWORTHINESS AND MAINTENANCE

A Guide to a Wonderful, Mysterious Profession With Sketches from an Aeronautical Engineer’s Album

Second Edition

Introduction to Aeronautics: a Design Perspective — Third edition. S A Brandt. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Reston, VA. 2015. Distributed by Transatlantic Publishers Group, 97 Greenham Road London N10 1LN, UK. xxiii; 634pp. Illustrated. £88. [20% discount available to RAeS members on request; E mark.chaloner@ tpgltd.co.uk T+44 (0)20 8815 5994). ISBN 978-1-62410264-6.

Gareth Davies Padfield

So You Want To Be An Engineer?: A Guide to a Wonderful, Mysterious Profession with Sketches from an Aeronautical Engineer’s Album — Second edition. G D Padfield. Published by and available from the author (E gareth.padfield@ liv.ac.uk), or via the American Helicopter Society website (https://vtol.org/store/ department/books-7.cfm). 2015. 260pp. Illustrated. £30. ISBN 978-0-9929017-2-1. AEROMODELLING Model Planes: Aerofoils and Wings. M Pressnell. Robert Hale Limited, Find us on Twitter

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Initial Airworthiness: Determining the Acceptability of New Airborne Systems. G Gratton. Springer. 2015. 319pp. Illustrated. £134.50. ISBN 9783-319-11408-8. GAS DYNAMICS High Enthalpy Gas Dynamics. E Rathakrishnan. John Wiley and Sons, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, UK. 2015. 330pp. £95. ISBN 978-1-118-82189-3. REMOTE SENSING Microwave Radar and Radiometric Remote Sensing. F T Ulaby et al. The University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, MI. 2014. Distributed by Artech House, 16 Sussex Street, London

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A Quiet Country Town: a Celebration of 100 Years of Westland at Yeovil. D Gibbings. The History Press, The Mill, Brimscombe Port, Stroud, Gloucestershire GL5 2QG, UK. 2015. 192pp. Illustrated. £16.99. ISBN 9780-7509-6242-1. Incorporating the recollections of Harold Penrose, John Fay, Jim Schofield and others, this is an informative anthology compilation of short articles and extracts by a number of people closely involved with the evolution of the Westland company family (including Normalair Garrett and AgustaWestland) which provides revealing insights into the development of the Pterodactyl, Lysander, Whirlwind, Wyvern, Lynx, Wessex and the British Experimental Rotor Programme (BERP) among other projects. Gottinger Monograph N: German Research and Development on Rotary-Wing Aircraft (1939-1945). Edited by B van der Wall. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Reston, VA. 2015. Distributed by Transatlantic Publishers Group, 97 Greenham Road London N10 1LN, UK. 226pp. Illustrated. £40. [20% discount available to RAeS members on request; E mark.chaloner@ tpgltd.co.uk T +44 (0)20 8815 5994). ISBN 978-1-62410272-1. SERVICE AVIATION Airpower Reborn: the Strategic Concepts of John Warden and John Boyd. Edited by J A Olsen. Naval

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Australia and the War in the Air. M Molkentin. Oxford University Press253 Normanby Road, South Melbourne, Victoria 3205, Australia. 2014. 284pp. Illustrated. £60. ISBN 978-0-19-557679-5. The RNAS: and the Birth of the Aircraft Carrier 1914-1918. I M Burns. Fonthill Media Limited, Millview House, Toadsmoor Road, Stroud GL5 2TB, UK. 2014. 240pp. Illustrated. £20. ISBN 978-178155-365-7. Fifty Years of Flying Fun: from the Hunter to the Spitfire and Back Again. R Dean. Grub Street, 4 Rainham Close, London SW11 6SS, UK. 2015. 236pp. Illustrated. £20. ISBN 978-1-909808-27-0. The author recalls in these informal memoirs his RAF career serving in 43/79/208 Squadrons/229 Operational Conversion Unit (OCU) and his later career as an air display pilot. The Folland Gnat, Hawker Hunter, SEPECAT Jaguar, Hunting Jet Provost and the DHC Chipmunk are among the military aircraft types he has flown. SPACE We Could Not Fail: the First African Americans in the Space Program. R Paul and S Moss. University of Texas Press, Austin, TX. 2015. Distributed by Combined Academic Publishers Ltd, Windsor House, Cornwall Road, Harrogate HG1 2PW, UK. 236pp. Illustrated. £20.99. [25% discount available to RAeS members via www. combinedacademic.co.uk using CS314FLIGHT promotion code]. ISBN 978-0-29277249-6.

A detailed study of how Clyde Foster, Morgan Watson, George Bourda, Julius Montgomery, Frank Crossley and Ed Dwight among others pioneered the employment of African American scientists and engineers at NASA sites in Texas, Alabama and Florida and the challenging experiences they faced during the 1950s and 1960s. First Man: the Life of Neil Armstrong. J R Hansen. Simon & Schuster UK Ltd, London. 2007. 768pp. Illustrated. ISBN 0-74325963-7. Based on over 125 interviews with key participants, flight logs and NASA archives, a detailed biography of the former NACA test pilot working on the North American X-15 programme who became the world famous Apollo astronaut. The Moon Landings: an Eyewitness Account. R Turnill. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 2003. 456pp. Illustrated. ISBN 0-89464-044-5. 0-52181595-9. The author’s revealing recollections of his time as the BBC’s Aerospace Correspondent of the American-Soviet ‘Space Race’ focusing particularly on the Apollo Moon landings. Introduction to the Space Environment — Second edition. T F Tascione. Krieger Publishing Company, Malabar, FL. 1994. 151pp. Illustrated. ISBN 0-89464-044-5. Describes the magnetosphere, ionosphere, solar wind, solar/plasma physics, geomagnetism, radio wave propagation and their potential impact on spacecraft operations. It’s Only Rocket Science: an Introduction in Plain English. L Rogers. Springer. 2008. 350pp. Illustrated. ISBN 978-0-387753-77-5. A general introduction to the world of astronautics, including spacecraft communications/navigation systems/propulsion systems, orbital mechanics, satellites and space missions.

For further information contact the National Aerospace Library. T +44 (0)1252 701038 or 701060 E [email protected] JUNE 2015

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Society News CAMBRIDGE BRANCH

The Airbus A350 Flight Test Programme The Wolfson Hall at Churchill College Cambridge provided an excellent venue for the 15th Sir Arthur Marshall Lecture, the Cambridge Branch annual prestige event, held on Thursday 5 February 2015. Then Society President, Air Cdre Bill Tyack, gave the opening address and introduced the speaker, Peter Chandler, who made an excellent presentation on ‘The Airbus A350 Flight Test Programme’, supported by comprehensive pictures and video clips. As the Airbus Chief Test Pilot, Peter Chandler was responsible for the team that prepared meticulously for the first flight and every subsequent test leading to successful certification in November 2014. He explained the rationale behind the A350 series of new twin-engined airliners, with the XWB-900 as the first version to be built. He had captained the first flight in June 2013, spending four hours exploring a large portion of the flight envelope. The stall was an important data point for subsequent tests, and a video clip showing the airflow — visualised by means of miniature drogues on the upper wing surface — illustrated how it became disturbed at the tip before the root; during

Above: The A350 XWB makes its first visit to the UK in April 2014. Airbus. Above right: Dr Mike Gregory, Air Cdre Bill Tyack, then RAeS President; David Whitehead, Peter Chandler, Airbus Chief Test Pilot; Mike Hawkins, Chairman, Cambridge Branch; Martin Broadhurst, VicePresident, Cambridge Branch and now RAeS President and Brian Phillipson. Phil Mynott.

the subsequent question period he explained that this was a characteristic of the wing being optimised for the highest efficiency in cruising flight. The closing address was given by Branch Vice-President Martin Broadhurst, who thanked the speaker and said that the late Sir Arthur Marshall would definitely have enjoyed and appreciated the talk and the videos. Dr Mike Gregory MRAeS

Sir Michael Marshall Lecture Competition In recognition of Sir Michael Marshall’s long and continued support of the Young Persons’ Lecture Competition, the Society has agreed to this being named ‘The Sir Michael Marshall Lecture Competition’ for the Cambridge Branch. Thursday 12 March marked an important milestone as Cambridge University Engineering Department played host to the inaugural event, which we are proud to include in our annual programme as a named lecture. In keeping with the prestige of the occasion, the audience and Judges, Mark Johnston FRAeS (Director of Engineering, Marshall Aerospace), Jin Yu MRAeS (Cambridge Branch committee member) and John Hicks FREng were treated to a series of enjoyable and well-researched lectures, enthusiastically delivered by very talented young students and engineers. Taking the honours in the under 25’s category, Richard Stephens of Cambridge University delivered a first rate lecture entitled ‘Lorry Underbody Aerodynamics’. His lecture provided an excellent insight into the difficulties associated with modelling air flow beneath a moving vehicle and the efficiency savings that can be realised by use of some simple modifications to chassis design. Overall competition winner, and winner in the

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Above: Lecture speakers with the judges and Branch Committee members. Phil Mynott. Above right: Lecture speakers. Phil Mynott.

over 25’s category, Michael Dales of Marshall Aerospace, impressed the judges with his presentation ‘The New Centre of The World’, focusing on the rapid growth of Gulf Carriers, providing a detailed discussion on the changing landscape of the airline industry. The Cambridge branch would like to thank all participants for making this year’s competition such an interesting and closely contested event and we eagerly anticipate next year’s competition. Additional thanks to Cambridge Branch committee members, Dr Mike Gregory and Mr Allan Brocklebank for helping with the organisation of the event. Jonathan Burnip ARAeS

ASTRO PI

Using space to encourage children Students from Croydon and Esher Primary Schools will soon be sending their own experiments into space after winning the Astro Pi ‘Big Idea’ competition. Blasting to the top among hundreds of entrants, their winning ideas will be coded into a Raspberry Pi computer which will fly to the International Space Station (ISS) in November 2015. Tim Peake has announced the winners in a video message from Star City, where he is currently training. The idea behind a tiny and affordable computer for kids dates back to 2006 when Eben Upton, Rob Mullins, Jack Lang and Alan Mycroft, based at the University of Cambridge’s Computer Laboratory, became concerned about the year-on-year decline in the numbers and skill levels of the A Level students applying to read computer science. The Raspberry Pi that resulted is a low-cost, credit-card sized computer that plugs into a computer monitor or TV and uses a standard keyboard and mouse. Their goal is to see the Raspberry Pi being used by kids all over the world to learn to program and understand how computers work. The Astro Pi ‘hat’ is an attachment that contains a suite of sensors and a dot matrix display allowing a wide range of experiments and activities to be undertaken. Building on the widespread take-up of Raspberry Pis in UK schools, the UK space industry joined with the UK Space Agency and the Raspberry Pi Foundation to take advantage of the November 2015 mission of Britain’s first European astronaut, Tim Peake FRAeS, to the International Space Station (see astro-pi.org). A suite of Astro Pi explanatory texts for teachers has been made available on the website of the National STEM Centre. The nationwide competition for kids was launched in January and the resulting Primary School ideas were evaluated in early April. Hannah Belshaw from Cumnor House Girl’s School in Croydon, Surrey, won top place in the Primary School category with her idea to represent data from the Astro Pi in the world of Minecraft. The judges recognised that Hannah’s idea is an ingenious way to represent abstract sensor data captured by the Astro-Pi computer in a format that would allow children to gain an intuitive understanding. A ‘digital flyby’ incorporating terrain and magnetometer visualisations can be recreated in the Minecraft world from actual data downloaded from the International Space Station and replicated by anyone that owns a Raspberry Pi. Her idea will now be coded up by the Raspberry Pi staff and flown on the ISS. In addition she wins a set of 15 Find us on Twitter

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Above: Hannah Belshaw of Cumnor House Girl’s School won in the Primary School category. Cumnor House School. Right: Tim Peak inspects the Raspberry Pi and its Astro Pi ‘hat’. Twitter.

THEIR GOAL IS TO SEE THE RASPBERRY PI BEING USED BY KIDS ALL OVER THE WORLD TO LEARN TO PROGRAM AND UNDERSTAND HOW COMPUTERS WORK

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Astro Pi computers for the school and an image of the school premises taken from space by a British satellite. Jonathan Bell, from Raspberry Pi said: “We anticipate that we will have as much fun programming (and testing) this entry, as children will have exploring a game world created from data captured in space.” The Cranmere Code Club team from Cranmere Primary School in Esher Surrey were also winners with their idea to investigate whether the Astro Pi can detect the presence of astronauts on the ISS using the temperature and humidity sensors. CGI’s Pat Norris from the judging panel said: “The Cranmere entry was very clearly and comprehensively presented. It included a statement of the objective of what is effectively a scientific experiment and of the approach proposed to achieve that objective, and complemented this with logic flowcharts and a diagram. Part of the activity takes place on the ISS and part on the ground after the data has been collected, giving the Cranmere Code Club an opportunity to participate directly in the experiment.” Cranmere win 15 Astro Pi sets and their idea will be coded by the Raspberry Pi staff to go into space with Tim Peake. Secondary schools have until 29 June 2015 to submit their entries in the form of actual code. Six schools won the interim prize of a set of 15 Astro Pi computers which will, no doubt, help and encourage them in their attempt to win the big prize of having their code selected to fly in space. More details of the competition results can be found in the news section of www.ukspace.org Pat Norris FRAeS CITP JUNE 2015

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Society News STUDENT DESIGN CONTEST Starting from just a concept back in September 2014, Ben Lewis and I, second year aerospace engineering students from The University of Manchester, had a very challenging mission to create something new and innovative to take to Merlin Flight Simulation Group’s IT FLIES USA Competition held annually in Dayton, Ohio. After much deliberation, Swift, a variable sweep passenger transport capable of Mach 2 at 60,000ft and subsonic cruise at 40,000ft was born. We spent numerous hours a week (including some weekends!) completing various calculations and flight testing alongside our university studies; before finally flying out to Dayton, Ohio, was extremely exciting. Having arrived a few days early before the competition, we took the time to explore Dayton’s great aviation heritage. The first trip out was to the National Museum of the USAF where we managed to get to see the presidential and the R&D galleries with some very interesting aircraft, including the Boeing VC-137C, the only XB-70 Valkyrie left in the world and the Lockheed YF-12A. When we got back in the evenings, we were very focused on practicing and perfecting our presentation and, as competition day edged closer, the nerves began to accumulate. On the morning of the competition, we had the opportunity to chat to a few of the test pilots. We were introduced to our test pilot David Glade who flew the F-111 variable-sweep fighter jet, and thus the perfect person to test our design. Having made our presentation, we fought off some tough questions and then it was down to The University of Dayton’s simulation laboratory where our test pilot would put our aircraft through some rigorous tests in their MP521 Engineering Flight Simulator. Being able to speak with and gain feedback from all the judges and test pilots was an invaluable experience. About 30 minutes after our flight test, we were delighted to be awarded with second place — also taking the prize for the Most Innovative Design. Not

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IT FLIES USA

















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Above: The University of Manchester’s design for a variable-sweep, supersonic transport. Below: Vaz Gorasia watching test pilot David Glade flying the design in the UD lab. Bottom: The National Museum of the US Air Force.

only was the competition day fun and a fantastic learning experience, it was also great to make new friends with the other competitors. To end what had been an amazing day, we all went out for a meal to celebrate everybody’s achievements. On our last day in Dayton, with a few of the students who we were staying with at The University of Dayton, we also made a visit to the Wright Brothers Museum and their bicycle shop which was very fascinating. The trip and the competition day was an amazing experience for us. To end one year’s worth of work with second place and the Innovation Prize was brilliant and we have both gained huge amounts of knowledge in aircraft preliminary design, as well as improving our teamwork and communication skills. We cannot talk highly enough about being part of something like this. A huge thank you to everyone we met at The University of Dayton, also to The University of Manchester and to Merlin Flight Simulation Group for organising the event! Vaz Gorasia

ISLANDER MILESTONE

Bembridge pays tribute to the historic Britten-Norman Islander

Britten-Norman BN-2A Islander, G-AVCN, over the Needles. RAeS (NAL).

June 13 2015 will see the 50th anniversary of the first flight of the Britten-Norman Islander light transport and utility aircraft. The Islander is the most successful British civil aircraft ever and was created by what could be considered as one of the last British aircraft companies to come into existence, the Britten-Norman Company, or B-N, based at Bembridge Airport on the Isle of Wight. The first flight 50th anniversary will be commemorated by the ‘Islander 50’ event to be held at Bembridge Airport in June, 2015. The Britten-Norman Aircraft Preservation Society Trust is preparing plans for the commemoration event, alongside work currently well under way at its Bembridge Harbour workshop to restore the oldest B-N Islander in existence, G-AVCN, construction number 003, as a high quality static exhibit. The restored Islander will be a tribute to John Britten and Desmond Norman and all who worked with them and the B-N Company over the years to make the Islander an outstanding success for the British aviation industry.

AEROSPACE GOLF DAY

FOR INDIVIDUAL AND CORPORATE MEMBERS FRILFORD HEATH GOLF COURSE, OXFORDSHIRE / WEDNESDAY 1 JULY 2015 18 hole Stableford Points competition

Join us at our 2015 Golf Day for some healthy competition with fellow golfers in the aviation community.

9 hole Texas Scramble competition

This event is ideal for networking in a relaxed and informal setting.

Individual and corporate team prizes

Enter a corporate 4-ball team or opt to be teamed up with other individual players.

Lunch, refreshments and afternoon tea Optional Social Supper on 30 June 2015

For further details please apply to: Gail Ward Events Manager — Corporate and Society Royal Aeronautical Society T +44 (0)1491 629912 E [email protected]

Afterburner

Diary LECTURES

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Dassault

EVENTS

2-3 June Delivering Weapons System Effects: The Contrast Between Piloted and Remotely-Piloted Platforms Weapon Systems and Technology Group Conference QinetiQ, Malvern 8 June Sir Sydney Camm Lecture: Air Power and the Defence Aerospace Industry in the Whole Force Era Air Marshal Sir Baz North, Deputy Commander Capability and Air Member for Personnel & Capability, Royal Air Force 9-10 June Future Challenges in Flight Simulation Flight Simulation Group Conference 9 June Edwin A Link Lecture: Investigation in Simulation Nathalie de Ziegler, Investigating Officer, Bureau d’Enquêtes et d’Analyses (BEA) Flight Simulation Group Named Lecture 11 June Civil Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Societal Implications and Issues Unmanned Air Systems Group Workshop 25 June Sopwith Lecture James Arbuthnot MP Named Lecture 30 June Airport Expansion in the South East — Where and Why? Capt Jock Lowe Air Law Group Lecture and Summer Reception 1 July Aerospace Golf Day 9 July Amy Johnson Lecture Carol Vorderman Women in Aerospace and Aviation Lecture 14 July Meteor — A Story of Development Andy Bradford, MBDA Weapon Systems and Technology Group Lecture 7 September The Vickers Wellington Dr Steve Bond Historical Group Lecture 16 September Future Trends in Certification of Advanced Technology Structures Structures and Materials Group Conference National Composites Centre, Bristol All lectures start at 18.00hrs unless otherwise stated. Conference proceedings are available at www.aerosociety.com/news/proceedings

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A Breguet Br76 Deux Ponts being used to demonstrate the Dragonjack aircraft recovery equipment at Orly Airport. The restoration of a Deux Ponts will be described at Toulouse on 26 June. RAeS (NAL).

BIRMINGHAM, WOLVERHAMPTON AND COSFORD RAF Museum Cosford. 7 pm. Chris Hughs, T +44 (0)1902 844523. 18 June — Dornier 17Z — recovery and conservation. Darren Priday, Manager, Conservation Centre, RAF Museum Cosford. BRISTOL Concorde Room, BAWA. 6.30 pm. E [email protected] 11 June — A320neo flight testing. Sandra Bour-Schaeffer, Flight Test Engineer, Airbus. 22 June — Barnwell Lecture. AgustaWestland Project Zero programme. Dr James Wang, Vice President of Research and Technology, AgustaWestland. University of West of England. 6 pm. CANBERRA ADFA Military Theatre. 6 pm. Jon Pike, E [email protected] 9 June — C-27J battlefield airlifter. Sqn Ldr David Hood, C-27J Certification Manager. CRANWELL Whittle Hall Lecture Theatre, Whittle Hall, RAF Cranwell. 7 pm. Prof Trevor Kerry, E [email protected] 1 June — Motion in flight simulation. Bob Young. 6 July — Sir Barnes Wallis. Prof Richard Morris.

DERBY Rolls-Royce Learning and Career Development Centre, Wilmore Road, Derby. 7 pm. Chris Sheaf, T +44 (0)1332 269368. 11 June — 51st Sir Henry Royce Lecture. Willie Walsh, CEO, IAG.

LOUGHBOROUGH Room J104, Edward Herbert Building, Loughborough University. 7 pm. Colin Moss, T +44 (0)1509 239962. 9 June — Loughborough University MEng Final Year Aircraft Design Projects — four short lectures.

FARNBOROUGH BAE Systems Park Centre, Farnborough Aerospace Centre. 7.30 pm. Dr Mike Philpot, T +44 (0)1252 614618. 16 June — The prone pilot position. Roger Cansdale, RAE/DERA (Ret).

OXFORD Magdalen Centre, Oxford Science Park, Oxford. 7 pm. Nigel Randell, E oaktree. [email protected] 21 July — Tales from a bush pilot. Paul Catanach.

HAMBURG Airbus Conference Center (ACC), Airbus Hamburg. 6 pm. Richard Sanderson, T +49 (0)4167 92012. 11 June — Material tailoring for lightweight and morphing structures — the shapes of things to come. Paul Weaver, Professor in Lightweight Structures, Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Bristol. Joint lecture with DGLR, VDI and HAW. Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften Hamburg, Berliner Tor 5 (Neubau), Hörsaal 01. 1 July — Second Gerhard Sedlmayr Lecture. Facing the unexpected in flight — what must we do? Jean Pinet, former head of Aeroformation/ Airbus Training.

PRESTON Personnel and Conference Centre, BAE Systems, Warton. 7.30 pm. Alan Matthews, T +44 (0)1995 61470. 10 June — US military space programmes. Pat Norris, CGI. TOULOUSE Château de Larroque, Route de Toulouse, Gimont, 45km West of Toulouse airport. 7 pm. 26 June — Annual Informal Dinner. Josselin Bequet will describe his work in the restoration of a 50-year old Breguet 765 Deux-Ponts/ Sahara. YEOVILTON Nuffield Bar, Little Yeovilton, RNAS Yeovilton, Ilchester, Somerset. 6 pm. 30 June — 100 years of world class aircraft. David Hassard.

Gloster Meteor F8, WK935, was used by the RAE Farnborough for prone-pilot trials. The prone pilot position will be discussed by Roger Cansdale at Farnborough on 16 June. RAeS (NAL).

5th CEAS Air & Space Conference 7-11 Sept 2015 Delft University of Technology (The Netherlands) CEAS – the Council of European Aerospace Societies – will host its 2015 Air & Space conference in Delft (NL). CEAS 2015 will be a unique opportunity for aerospace industries, academia, organisations and associations to communicate, share and debate innovative concepts and technical solutions in the aerospace domain. CEAS 2015 will promote the establishment of knowledge and technical networks with the aim of increasing European competitiveness in the field of aerospace.

The EU-funded project AFLoNext 2nd generation active wing will organise a workshop as a partner in the CEAS 2015 conference on flow control technologies for novel aircraft configurations. The 12th European Workshop on Aircraft Design Education (EWADE) will be held during the CEAS 2015 conference.

Conference programme Inspiring and influential speakers have chosen the CEAS conference to share perspectives that are relevant to you and your organisation during 7 plenary sessions: Challenges for the European Aeronautical Industry Jean Botti (CTO Airbus) Hans Buethker (Chairman & CEO Fokker Technologies) Challenges for European Access to Space Franco Ongaro (Director TEC & head ESA-ESTEC) Arnaud de Jong (CEO Airbus Defence and Space Netherlands) Challenges to the European Airlines Athar Husain Khan (CEO Association of European Airlines AEA) Peter Hartman (Vice-chairman Board of AirFrance/KLM) Challenges in realizing a Single European Sky Florian Guillermet (Director SESAR JU) Paul Riemens (CEO LVNL) Challenges to the European Aerospace Research and Research Infrastructure Eric Dautriat (Executive Director CleanSky) Rolf Henke (Member DLR Executive Board) Michel Peters (CEO NLR) Challenges to European Aerospace Education Hester Bijl (Dean TU-Delft Aerospace Faculty) Challenges to the European Air Power in Asymmetric Conflicts CDRE Peter Round (Director Capability EDA)  Lt-Gen Sander Schnitger (Commander Royal Netherlands Air Force). 205 Technical papers have been selected for publication and presentation by aerospace scientists and engineers from 26 different nations around the world to disseminate the latest scientific knowledge and research. Technical visits Four alternative technical tours to places of interest like major R&D centers (ESA-ESTEC and NLR), the TU Delft and aerospace industry (Fokker Aerostructures) are offered.

Register now @ www.ceas2015.org

Afterburner

Society News WASHINGTON DC BRANCH

Fourth Transatlantic Leading Edge Award Group Captain Bill Gibson FRAeS, as the host, welcomed the assembled 90+ attendees to the British Embassy. He mentioned this was his last AGM, as he was returning to the UK. He proceeded to introduce the British Ambassador, Sir Peter Westmacott, who spoke extensively about the aviation sector and industry and its importance to the British economy. He outlined the importance of investment in each others’ country and discussed the value of the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) negotiations. After concluding his remarks, the Ambassador handed over to Ken Gazzola, the Chair of the Washington, DC Branch Board. Mr Gazzola outlined the successes and developments over the past year, including approaching the goal of 200 Branch members. Mr Gazzola and Ambassador Westmacott presented the Transatlantic Leading Edge Trophy to James Guyette, President and CEO, Rolls-Royce North America, saying Mr Guyette “represents the true spirit of this award” and that it was “earned on the merit of his accomplishments.” In accepting the award Mr Guyette reflected on the great partnerships developed in the aerospace business over many decades and emphasised the foundation of it being based on trust. He spoke about how innovation, collaboration and competition have been an important part of the

James Guyette is presented with the 2015 Transatlantic Leading Edge Trophy. From left: Ken Gazzola, Chairman RAeS Washington DC Branch; James Guyette, and the British Ambassador, Sir Peter Westmacott.

relationship across the Atlantic and told stories on collaboration and perseverance, with the best of cultures coming together to do things others didn’t think was possible. He thanked the Royal Aeronautical Society and said he felt honoured and grateful to receive the Leading Edge Award. Quentin Whiteree Washington DC Branch Secretary

Online publications survey Many thanks to those who responded to our recent request for feedback on both AEROSPACE and The Aeronautical Journal. We appreciate all your input and we will be guided by this as we THE develop the publications. AERONAUTICAL Please do keep the feedback coming. JOURNAL The survey will be open for a little while longer, or you can contact the Publications Team directly by email, phone or post. We also encourage readers to contribute to AEROSPACE, whether by submitting articles, proposing topics or authors, or simply by keeping us informed of their local Branch/Division activities. Covering all aspects of aerospace

in partnership with

Fantastic images from the National Aerospace Library Collection of the Royal Aeronautical Society are now available to purchase as reproduction prints and giftware items. View the complete collection at:

www.prints-online.com

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Volume 119

Publications Team T +44 (0)20 7670 4352 E [email protected] Survey: http://aerosociety.com/publications2015

Number 1212

February 2015

Corporate Partners EVENTS

NEW PARTNERS

Please note: attendance at Corporate Partner Briefings is strictly exclusive to staff of RAeS Corporate Partners. Both individual and corporate members are welcome at the Aerospace Golf Day. Unless otherwise advised, registration for Corporate Partner Briefings is at 16.30 hrs.

The Royal Aeronautical Society would like to welcome the following as Corporate Partners.

Wednesday 1 July 2015 / Frilford Heath, Oxfordshire Aerospace Golf Day TUI GROUP TUI UK&I: Wigmore House, Wigmore Lane, Luton LU2 9TN UK T +44 (0)1582 644340 W www.tuigroup.com Contact Chris Browne, Chief Operating Officer

Tuesday 15 September 2015 / London An Update on US Aviation Strategic Goals and Transatlantic Partnerships Corporate Partner Briefing by Michael P Huerta, Administrator, FAA Monday 12 October 2015 / London Corporate Partner Briefing by AM Sir Stephen Hillier, Deputy Chief of the Defence Staff (Capability), Ministry of Defence Sponsored by:

There are six proprietary airlines in the TUI Group operating around 140 medium- and long-haul aircraft, including the largest fleet of the latest Boeing Dreamliners. The airlines are TUIfly, Thomson, TUIfly Nordic, Jetairfly, Corsair and ArkeFly, serving more than 180 destinations around the world. The TUI Group airlines carry 30 million customers every year and employ 8,500 people.

Aveillant is a UK-based world leader in radar technology. Its surveillance products provide a uniquely detailed, comprehensive, and adaptable picture of surroundings. Aveillant’s approach differs fundamentally from the technology path followed to date. Rather than rotating a narrow beam, the company’s Holographic Radar constantly surveys all the airspace, then uses algorithms to intelligently interpret what it sees. This provides a real-time 3D picture, with unparalleled resolution and update speed. Because our solution is rooted in software, and because we collect 10,000% more information than conventional radars, our capabilities are broad and flexible — PSR, dronedetection, wind-farm mitigation, etc — all using the same technology. Find us on Twitter

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THE AIM OF THE CORPORATE PARTNER SCHEME IS TO BRING TOGETHER ORGANISATIONS TO PROMOTE BEST PRACTICE WITHIN THE INTERNATIONAL AEROSPACE SECTOR

Contact: Simon Levy Corporate Partner Manager E [email protected] T +44 (0)20 7670 4346

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Hayward & Green

AVEILLANT LTD 300 Science Park, Milton Road, Cambridge CB4 0XL, UK T +44 (0)1223 226290 E [email protected] W www.aveillant.com Contact Joseph Woolfolk, Office Manager/Exec Assistant to CEO

www.aerosociety.com/events For further information, please contact Gail Ward E [email protected] or T +44 (0)1491 629912

Hayward & Green acquires BAe125s from Royal Flight Three Royal Air Force BAe125 CC3s from 32 Squadron, also known as the Royal Squadron, have been acquired from an MoD tender by the special projects division of West Sussex aerospace engineering firm Hayward & Green Aviation Ltd. The aircraft were retired from active service in late March, marking the end of the RAF’s involvement with the 125. “These aircraft have a unique and intriguing history” explains Director of Operations, Jeremy Green. “As well as active military service in the Gulf and elsewhere, they have also been used by Her Majesty the Queen as well as other members of the Royal family and many leading cabinet politicians including the Prime Minister. The RAF really valued these aircraft for their unflappable reliability.” Plans for the aircraft have yet to be finalised but Green has confirmed that at least one will be maintained as fully operational. The others may be used as sources of spare parts for continuing operations. JUNE 2015

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Elections FELLOWS

Neil Barnett Joanna Caston Keith Conradi Richard Daniel Michael de La Chapelle Maureen Dougherty Simon Escott Jens Goennemann Daniel Hinson Mark Hunt John Illson David Lees Andrew Martin Lorraine Rienecker Mark Skidmore Anthony Toner Edwin Tritschler Carol Williams Stewart Wingate MEMBERS

Vasily Akhrameev Perry Hinneh

Gianmarco Mengaldo Susan Smith Simon Toogood ASSOCIATE MEMBERS

Liam Bosley Eleri Cooling Carmel Corr James Fitzmaurice George Henderson Michael Hollings Cameron McKay Danny Moore Gavin Scott Jonathan Sixsmith Jack Small Devon Sumner Rhys Wainwright Mark Wallis ASSOCIATES

David Barry Diana Rotariu

Sukhdeep Sandhu Asad Shahid Jessica Summersby E-ASSOCIATES

Ayden Mitchell AFFILIATES

Emmanuel Abaya Peter Antonenko Greg Baker Nigel Balshaw Sarah Beswick Michael Close Anthony Cundill John Lewthwaite Rajeev Verma Lea Vesic Justin Wastnage

SOCIETY OFFICERS President: Martin Broadhurst President-Elect: Prof Chris Atkin BOARD CHAIRMEN Learned Society Chairman: Prof Graham Roe Membership Services Chairman: Dr Alisdair Wood Professional Standards Chairman: Prof Jonathan Cooper DIVISION PRESIDENTS Australia: John Vincent New Zealand: Gp Capt Frank Sharp Pakistan: AM Salim Arshad South African: Dr Glen Snedden Correct at the time of going to press

STUDENT AFFILIATES

Cheryl Cattanach

50 YEARS OF MEMBERSHIP The Society would like to congratulate the followng members who have reached 50 years of membership during 2014 and 2015.

Barrie Abbott MRAeS Frank Adams MRAeS John Ayers MRAeS Lee Balthazor FRAeS John Bates MRAeS Geoffrey Bennett MRAeS Terence Billingham MRAeS Anthony Bishop MRAeS Richard Blockley FRAeS John Boulding FRAeS Geoffrey Reginald Brown MRAeS Trevor Bush FRAeS David Butter FRAeS Roger Caesley MRAeS Alan Clifton MRAeS Alan Cole MRAeS Thomas Roger Crossley FRAeS Colin Dallimore FRAeS Brian Day FRAeS Eric Donald FRAeS Ivan Duck FRAeS Melville Dunn FRAeS

56

AEROSPACE / JUNE 2015

Norman John Essex MRAeS Samuel Fisher MRAeS Colin Frazer AMRAeS John Gilbert MRAeS Bernard Goodman MRAeS Michael Gordon-Smith AMRAeS Graham Goy FRAeS Philip Green FRAeS John Hastie MRAeS Michael Hawkins FRAeS John Henington MRAeS Anthony Hillier FRAeS John Hoad MRAeS Michael Hosford MRAeS Brinley Hughes FRAeS Leslie Leigh Hyde MRAeS John Janke MRAeS Jeffrey Jupp FRAeS William Kenney AMRAeS Ronald King MRAeS

Christopher Lack AMRAeS Roy Laverty MRAeS John Levy FRAeS Peter Liddell MRAeS Dennis Long MRAeS Barrie Lord FRAeS Narinder Luthra MRAeS Robert Ian Duncan Macfarlane MRAeS Colin Martin FRAeS Lefkios Michaelides MRAeS Bryan Matthew Patrick Murphy MRAeS David Ogilvy FRAeS Colin Osborne AMRAeS Lynn Perkins MRAeS Geoffrey Pritchard MRAeS Harold Radford FRAeS David Reay MRAeS Malcolm Revell MRAeS Christopher Roberts FRAeS Stanley Rodgers MRAeS

John Brian Rodgers MRAeS Colin Russell FRAeS Christopher Ryland AMRAeS Michael Savage FRAeS Lionel Scovell MRAeS Michael Snelling MRAeS Michael Stanberry MRAeS Roger Stanley MRAeS James Taylor FRAeS Adam Teleki MRAeS

David Thompson MRAeS Michael Usher MRAeS Thomas Watterson FRAeS Anthony George Alfred White MRAeS Eddie Wild FRAeS Geoffrey Wileman MRAeS David Wilson FRAeS Peter Wilson MRAeS Anthony Wilson FRAeS Jeremy Wooding FRAeS

ADVERTISING To advertise in any of the Royal Aeronautical Society’s publications, website or e-media please contact: Emma Bossom T +44 (0)20 7670 4342 E [email protected]

Society News WITH REGRET The RAeS announces with regret the deaths of the following members: Brian John Bolton Affiliate 93

Informing your simulation needs Specialising in helicopter applications

Sir Maurice Flanagan KBE HonFRAeS 86 Dr David John Hall CEng MRAeS 73

http://www.YourSim.co.uk

Denys Randolph CEng MRAeS 89

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John Henry Sartain IEng AMRAeS 65 Ivor Schofield CEng MRAeS 90

x

James Spinks MRAeS 99

x

John Maurice Dennis Wilding AMRAeS 89 Ralph Darkin Williams CEng MRAeS 93

Planning to introduce simulation to your pilot training programmes? Need independent guidance on FSTD regulatory requirements? Want assistance with initial or recurrent FSTD qualification? YourSim provides FSTD consultancy on:

Dates for your diary

7-8 October 2015 — President’s Conference 2015: RPAS Achievements and Challenges. 9 December 2015 — Wilbur and Orville Wright Lecture and Presentation of RAeS Honours, Medals and Awards: UK Military Air Sector — A Strategic Perspective. Nigel Whitehead, Group MD — Programmes and Support, BAE Systems. No.4 Hamilton Place, London W1 E [email protected]

x x x x x x

FSTD type, level and supplier selection Technical requirements Validation flight data Test and acceptance including QTGs Qualification/certification Improvements, updates and upgrades

Contact: Peter Tarttelin BEng MRAeS, Managing Director uk.linkedin.com/in/peterctarttelin/ T: +44 7476 318428 E: [email protected]

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JUNE 2015

57

The Last Word COMMENTARY FROM Professor Keith Hayward FRAeS

Le Bourget

— a mixed forecast for European aerospace “I love Paris in the summer, when it sizzles” — well maybe but a lot depends if you are trudging round the concrete paths at Le Bourget or invited to share a long cool drink with a hospitable aerospace company. At least Farnborough has some accessible grass. But, as the aerospace carnival arrives in the City of Light, European aerospace has an opportunity to take stock. Although exhibitors are up on previous years, there are some missing names: Northrop Grumman and BAE Systems to name but two. And there will be no US military aircraft flying. But still lots to see.

THE EUROPEAN AEROSPACE SUPPLY CHAIN WOULD LIKE SOME CERTAINTY ABOUT FUTURE DEMAND AND PRODUCTION RATES

58

AEROSPACE / JUNE 2015

No change on the civil front As ever, the civil side reflects general buoyancy. Comme habitude Airbus and Boeing will announce large orders and trade a few ritual insults. Falling oil prices may have taken away some of the urgency to replace older airliners but their aircraft are selling well enough. Airbus faces some difficult choices with the A380, with its primary customer pressing for a bigger version while the original is still some way off break-even. Rolls-Royce certainly should have no complaints about Emirates! In passing, it is worth noting that, while the UK will provide most of the components for the A380 Trent, assembly will be overseas — with neutral impact on British employment, for the moment? In general, this Paris will pass without evidence of a major challenge to the Boeing-Airbus duopoly. Bombardier has still to convince that the CSeries has made a market break through. The Chinese challenge has yet to crystalise but watch out for more news about a China-Russia link up on a new widebody. European space also in a happy place The space sector is also in a reasonable state. European satellite builders have plenty of work and headline customers, such as ESA, have had a very good time with comet landers and the rest.

Commitment to a sixth version of Ariane has been agreed but not without further squabbling over costs. Meanwhile, Mr Musk and SpaceX are threatening to take away a chunk of the rocket’s commercial business. This will be a story to watch when the cavalcade moves on to Hampshire next year. Not so many smiley faces in the defence sector Harder faces will be found in the chalets and display halls if one is trying to land or to confirm a military deal. At least the Europeans will not be facing an F-35 in the flesh. Again, European taxpayers who are to help pay for the world’s most expensive procurement won’t be able to see what they are getting for their money. But what a struggle it is for Typhoon and Rafale? And how we should now regret failure in the 1980s to create a fast-jet Airbus grouping. Typhoon has the belated boost in active scan radar that should vastly improve its ground attack performance. Rafale has the edge in new sales — although, despite high level Franco-Indian intervention, confirming the Indian deal is a protracted exercise. The outcome might not be over-lucrative but it will keep the line open. Already, there is concern in both camps that the future of some long lead-time items may be coming up against some tough deadlines. More important, perhaps, Rafale has landed some important customers in the Middle East. Times look tough for Typhoon. Happy days then? I suspect that, whatever the status of European primes, the inhabitants of the European aerospace supply chain would like some certainty about future demand and production rates. Even firmer moves to develop future European RPAS programmes, will not fill many factories. However, one views the place of the F-35 in European aerospace, it is still one of the safer havens available.

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Future Trends in Certification of Advanced Technology Structures 16 September 2015 / Bristol This conference will focus on possible changes in the process employed to certify aircraft structures as viewed by both certification authorities and platform/ engine constructors. Presentations will be given by the general aviation and commercial aircraft field as well as on spacecraft structures and turbine engines. How are manufacturers modifying their processes in order to produce new products in a shorter timescale and at lower cost? How are certification authorities changing their requirements to meet the new technologies and reduced timescales?

5th Aircraft Structural Design Conference 4- 6 October 2016 / Lisbon, Portugal The 5th conference to be held in this series will take place at the Instituto Superior Tecnico in Lisbon, Portugal in 2016. This event aims to provide a platform for the presentation of new ideas, computerised design methods and algorithms for the design and development of civil and military aircraft, both manned and unmanned, over the course of the next decade. A call for papers will be opening shortly.

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FLIGHT CREW INSTRUCTION SELECTION, SKILLS AND SUPPLY LONDON / 23 - 24 SEPTEMBER 2015 Over the next 15 years, our industry faces an uprecedented demand for at least another 500,000 new airline pilots globally due to absolute fleet growth and a significant number of inevitable retirements from the age of the ‘baby-boom’. The 2015 International Flight Crew Training Conference will consider how to address this dynamic. www.aerosociety.com/events Sponsors

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