3rd Quarter 2003 -Tough market environment offset by significant cost reductions 4Clear stabilisation of traffic volumes – but no significant growth
3rd Quarter 2003
4 Group traffic +1%
4Continued strong pressure on yields 4 Down 14% in Q3
4Turnaround 2005 well underway – ahead of plan 4 Units cost down 14% Q3 (SK) 4 42% of program implemented
Stockholm, November 11th Oslo, November 12th
3rd Interim Report 2003
Negative result mainly attributable to the first quarter
3rd Quarter pressure on revenues offset by cost reductions
EBT bef gains and restructuring MSEK
3rd Quarter MSEK
500
2003
2002
4 Revenue 4 EBITDAR*)
14 920 1 833
16 592 2 145
-10% -15%
4 Lease, depreciation & financial net
-1 732
2 095
-17%
101 564
50 640
4 EBT bef. cap gains*) 4 EBT incl. gains
Interim Report 2003
-57
0
Q1
Q2
101
Q3
-500 -1 000 -1 500 -2 000
-1939
-2 500
*) Excluding resctructuring costs 3rd
2
3
3rd Interim Report 2003
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4
Position as Europe’s No 4 Airline Group secured further
- Revenues - Passengers
The SAS Group offers low price from all capitals in Scandinavia
4 The SAS Group current platform – Strong position in home market – 100 million in catchment area – Fourth largest airline group in Europe
4 Strengthened market position through acquisitions of minority holdings in Estonian Air 4 Rebranding of Air Botnia into Blue1 in Finland expanding with new nonstop flights from Helsinki to Europe
Braathens from Oslo to:
Stockholm Oslo
Barcelona, Malaga, Alicante, Nice, Roma, Las Palmas, Palma, Lissabon, Dublin
Copenhagen
Snoflake from Copenhagen and Stockholm to: Malaga, Alicante, Athens, Beograd, Beirut, Bologna, Budapest, Dublin, Rome, Istanbul, Lyon, Nice, Palma, Prague, Pristina, Sarajevo, New destinations to come: Ankara, Inverness, Malta, Venice Skopje, Split, Lisbon
3rd Interim Report 2003
5
3rd Interim Report 2003
6
New modulated product concept – the base for future customer set up SK Premium
SK Base + extra comfort Lounge access –
Improved inflight product Seating comfort (pitch)
–
3-classes – LONG HAUL Base
Low Cost Carrier + network carrier advantages – ”our terms and your terms” – – – – –
Timetable Transfers, partners & interline Peak availability All distribution channels Lojality program
3rd Interim Report 2003
Premium
2-classes - MEDIUM Base
SK Base
Extra
Turnaround 2005
Premium
1-class - SHORT Base
Snowflake LCC
Low and high prices In all categories 7
3rd Interim Report 2003
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8
Decided and under implementation 12 billion SEK in Turnaround 2005
Important events in Turnaround 2005 App 400 to leave in SGS
New organization implemented
MAR 04
DEC 03
AUG 03
Primary due to compensation level and choice of business model
Base organization implemented for aircraft and cabin crew
Implementation of SGS
Pilots took over PFI
200 FTE pilot redundancies
Cabin crew to be reduced further
Ground Operation Concept completed
AUG 03
FEB 04
By JUN 04
Q4 04
14
1,9
12
1,4
140 pilots on leave of absence
Revenue Accounting to India
OCT 03
DEC 03
MAY 04
Cabin crew reduced by 320 FTE OCT/NOV 03
4
Administration in SK to be reduced by further 100-150 FTE
NOV 03
FEB 04
3rd Interim Report 2003
0
9
Gap to the ”efficient airline” in compensation schemes Example: cabin crew
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
”Compensation ladder” for cabin crew Distribution of personnel 3rd Interim Report 2003
2,9 2,3
2
Q4 04
New Scandinavian Direct concept launched
1,0
0,9
6
STS move of Base Maintenance to Stockholm and centralization of material supply completed
12,0
1,6
10 8
Administration reduced by 370 FTE
1-2 billion
Overhead Production Inflight - SK Distribution functions concept - SK & Sales - SK SK/group wide
SGS
STS
Subsidiary Airlines & Hotels
Total
Identified, not decided
3rd Interim Report 2003
10
Three separate ”independent” bases to reduce complexity within Scandinavian Airlines
Gap to complete Turnaround 2005 in cabin crew and pilots compensations Main compensation schemes for cabin crew Basic compensation with a new level for each 21 years… …and 11,5%”fly compensation”… Per diem January-September in average 25-30% of salary Overtime (MDC) obligatory for pursers and compulsory on some longer routes for all groups
11
OSLO
STOCKHOLM
15 August Business structure setup Oct 03 Traffic Program and aircraft Feb 04 Administration completed Mar 04 Cabin Crew setup completed Oct 04 Pilots setup completed COPENHAGEN
3rd Interim Report 2003
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12
Sharp reduction in unit cost from Q2 continued in 3rd Quarter
Turnaround 2005 ahead of plan Total financial effect of implemented activities compared to plan MSEK
12 000
Reduction of personnel
12 000
6 000
12000
6000
10000
5000
8000
4 Q1 unit cost down 2% 4 Q2 unit cost down by 13% 4 Q3 unit cost down by 14%
5% 7 600
4000
7 000
6000
3000
4000
2000
2000
Index last year, EBITDAR level (currency adjusted) Scandinavian Airlines 10%
6 000
37% 4 400
42% 5 000
1000
0
Plan
Status SEP 2003 To be implemented
3rd Interim Report 2003
– Turnaround 2005 4 200
0%
4 100
– Net pricing model – Limited long haul effect – Some effect from snowflake introduction
-5% 30%
32%
-10%
1450
-15%
1 800 1400
1 900
Plan
Status SEP 2003
0
1st Q 2001
3rd Q 2001
1st Q 2002
3rd Q 2002
1st Q 2003
3rd Q 2003
Implemented 13
3rd Interim Report 2003
14
3rd Quarter EBT before gains and exceptionals - Business area Business area Q3 03 Scandinavian Airlines -192 Subsidiary & Aff. Airlines 298 Airlines Support Businesses 119 Airline Related Businesses 12 Hotels -37 Group eliminations -99 EBT, before gains & exceptionals 101
Business areas
3rd Interim Report 2003
15
3rd Interim Report 2003
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
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Q3 02 -273 316 118 36 124 -271 50
Change 81 -18 1 -24 -161 51
16
Effects from Turnaround 2005 offset by severe pressure on revenues Turnaround Volume
Billion, SEK
4
Increased prices: Fuel & Charges . -0,4 Inflationary comp. -0,7 Others incl curren. +0,7
2,8
3 2
0,5
1
+2,4 +0,8
Gunnar Reitan
0
Deputy CEO
-1 (1,2)
-2 -3 -4
Total change
Lease, depr, Net financ.
Volume (RPK) -7% -1,6 Yield -13% -3,2 Other, currency 0,3
Total costs
(4,5)
Total revenue
-5
3rd Interim Report 2003
3rd Interim Report 2003
17
Subsidiary & Affiliated Airlines positive Quarter for most airlines
18
Turnaround in Spanair on track
New improvement measures of MSEK 1 800 identified and initiated
Earnings before taxes 300
Jul-Sep in MSEK
Revenues
200
2 648
14,5%
1 613
-17,0%
574
-8,0%
201 -17,6%
100 0 -100
EBITDAR
591
9,2%
325
-24,1%
88
-7,4%
14
-76%
EBT, before gains
259
69%
131
-31%
18
n.m
-25
n.m
-200 -300
3rd Interim Report 2003
19
-400
4th Quarter
1st Quarter
2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter
3rd Interim Report 2003
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
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Summary development since the SAS Group takeover Long haul closed down March 2002 New availability based pricing model introduced in March 2003 Star Alliance member as from April 2003 After a tough first quarter Spanair has improved earnings significantly 70% of Spanairs Turnaround measures of MSEK 500 already implemented
20
Cost position in line with EasyJet on scheduled routes and Ryanair on charter
Spanair value creation going forward 4 Solid profitability and cash flow is viable as a concequence of excellent cost and efficincy and a business model providing sustainable growth 4 Strong position in Madrid and Barcelona, two of Europé’s strongest markets 4 The underdog position provides a long lasting growth perspectiv without getting close to dominant position 4 The twin track strategy with full service and low cost model is essential in order to capitalize on Spanair’s position
• Strong Q3 EBITDAR +9% EBT bef gains +69%
3rd Interim Report 2003
21
Combining excellent cost and quality/service performance with an innovative and agressiev commercial model, whould provide very good results and value for the SAS Group over the coming years 3rd Interim Report 2003
Hotels – continued weak hotel markets
Turnaround in Widerøe - weak yield development offset by good cost controll Yield down by over 20% managed by good cost control MSEK 300 in cost improvement measurements under implementation New non stop route to Manchester from Bergen as from December
July – September
Operating revenue EBT
22
2003
2002
574
624
18
-2
Weak trading conditions in Western Europe (specially in main capitals) Strong in the Baltic region and Eastern Europe New loyalty program introduced- Goldpoints Improvement program of MSEK 150 under implementation with full effect 2004 July-September
Total revenue EBITDA EBIT EBT
3rd Interim Report 2003
23
3rd Interim Report 2003
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2003
861 -8 -37 -37
2002
975 141 132 129
24
Finland and the Baltic region of great strategic importance to the SAS Group The SAS Group increases presence in the Baltic region
Baltic strategy
3rd Interim Report 2003
25
Increased presence in Finland and in the Baltic region
49%
100%
Introduction of Blue1 – expansion in the Finnish market AirBotnia to change identity to Blue1 New international nonstop destinations from Finland - Geneva, Düsseldorf and Brussels. Since 1998 SAS Group has tripled the number of daily flights to and from Finland from 40 to 120, of which Blue1 as from November will operate 102.
47%
Estonian Air a growing airline in a very interesting region Operating cost level app. 50% below European airlines AirBaltic growing network out of Latvia with similar cost level as Estonian Air Blue1 growing out from Finland with new non-stop routes from Helsinki to Brussels, Geneva and Düsseldorf
3rd Interim Report 2003
27
3rd Interim Report 2003
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28
Strategic considerations behind new shareholding in Estonian Air
Baltic countries – interesting opportunities in a growing region 4Growing economies
The Baltic states part of SAS home market Exploiting business opportunities to/from Estonia State of the art cost efficiency level – approximately 50% lower than west European network airlines Synergy effects estimated at about MSEK 35 One-stop services via Copenhagen Stockholm hubs
– Expected GDP growth in 2003/04 • Estonia 5,4% / 5,9% • Latvia 6,1% / 6,6%
– Improved domestic purchasing power – Inflation under control • Estonia 3,3% and Latvia 2,8%
4Estonia and Latvia to join EU 4Cost level significantly under Scandinavian countries – Local airline cost structure necessary to be able to operate profitable to/from region 3rd Interim Report 2003
29
3rd Interim Report 2003
30
AirBaltic – growing based on efficient production platform
SAS Group ownership 47% Transported 262 000 passengers in 2002 Efficient production platform Pilot block hours 800 in 2002 Cabin block hours 740 in 2002 Two class product to 14 destinations – 3 destinations opened in 2003 Participates in Euro Bonus program
Jørgen Lindegaard CEO & President
280 260 240 220 200 180
1999
2000
2001
3rd Interim Report 2003
2002
31
3rd Interim Report 2003
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32
Sum up
The Board of Directors
4 Stabilization of market – but no significant growth – Yield pressure to continue
4 Cost measures takes effect
– Turnaround 2005 ahead of schedule – Unit cost down in Q3 by 14% for Scandinavian Airlines
4 Position as Europe’s no 4 airline group secured further – Strengthened position for Spanair, Blue1 & AirBaltic – Acquisition of Estonian Air
3rd Interim Report 2003
33
Assessment for full year 2003: 4Improved economies, but still weak demand – Yields under pressure
4Turnaround 2005 – ahead of schedule 4EBT before taxes approximately negative MSEK 2 000 – Uncertainties about yields 4th Quarter
3rd Interim Report 2003
34
Thank you for your attention! This presentation can be downloaded at the SAS Group’s homepage
www.sasgroup.net
3rd Interim Report 2003
Additional slides for further information
35
3rd Interim Report 2003
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[email protected] --- Homepage: www.sasgroup.net -- Results Jan - Sep 2003
36
Operating expenses down by 15,8% in Scandinavian Airlines
Severe Revenue Pressure Passenger revenues down 5 410 MSEK
July – September
2003 pro forma 2002
Operating revenue
7 723
9 095
-15,1%
-1 791 -223 -728 -784 -307 -1 101 -1 078 -417 -661
-1 858 -497 -795 -923 -367 -1 356 -1 241 -433 -949
-3,6% -55,1% -8,4% -15,1% -16,3% -18,8% -13,1% -3,7% -30,3%
-15,8%
Personnel expeses Sales & distribution Fuel Government user fees Catering Handling costs Technical aircraft maintenance Data & telecommunication costs Other costs
Operating expenses
-7 090
-8 419
EBITDAR
633
676
EBIT
-26
-224
EBT
-178
-464
3rd Interim Report 2003
37
19 989 MSEK
• Volume • Yields • Currency
- 21,3 % - 6,6% - 12,7% -3,4%
3rd Interim Report 2003
38
Scandinavian Airlines - main actions taken under Turnaround 2005 New organization with three bases as from August 15th Cabin Crew reduced by 320 FTE’s by October Adm personnel reduced by 370 FTE’s by end of October Revenue accounting – move to India New Procedures for Line Maintenance (PFI) New Internet web site for Scandinavian Airlines and Snowflake as from October Subsidiary & Affiiliated airlines Increased ambition levels Braathens MSEK 500, Spanair MSEK 500 Airline Support Businesses Increase SK self check in to 60% in 2005 Centralize STS ‘Base Maintenance’ to Stockholm. FTE’s reduced by 510. Further redundancies expected with plan
4 Total traffic increased by 0,9% in Q3, but down 2,2% in Jan- Sep 4 Total capacity up by 2,3% vs. Q3 in 2002
3rd Interim Report 2003
4Revenues
Recent events under Turnaround 2005
Traffic up by 0,9% in the third quarter
3Q passenger load factors Scandinavian Airlines -0,4 p.u. Spanair +0,5 p.u. Braathens -3,5 p.u. Widerøe +3,0 p.u. Blue1 -7,8 p.u.
January-September
71,8% 69,0% 59,9% 54,3% 47,6%
39
3rd Interim Report 2003
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
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40
SAS Group – Quarterly EBT
SAS Group EBITDAR and CFROI
EBT bef gains MSEK million
Jan-Sep
MSEK 4 Revenue
2003
2002
43 930
1 500
48 235
-8,9%
4 EBITDAR
2 947
5 962
-51%
4 EBITDAR margin
6,7%
12,4%
-5,7 p.p.
4 CFROI
7%
1180
1 000 500
142
77
0
50 101 -57
-500
-591
-1 000
-809
-1 500
-1313 -1613
-2 000
11%
-1939
-2 500
Q1
Q2
Q3
2001
3rd Interim Report 2003
41
Scandinavian Airlines 2003/2002 Quarterly EBITDAR development
2002
Q4
2003
3rd Interim Report 2003
42
Group seasonality pattern
EBITDAR, Scandinavian Airlines MSEK
January, February, July and December seasonally weak months Revenues in Q3 in average 7% lower than Q2 last five years Revenues in Q4 in average 3% lower than Q2 last four years Revenues in Q1 in average 15% lower than Q2 last five years
2 000 1 500 1 000
Summer
Winter
Winter
500 1999 2000
0 Q1
Q2
Q3
2001
Q4
2002
-500 2002
2003
2003
jan
3rd
Interim Report 2003
43
3rd
feb mar
apr
maj
jun
jul
aug
sep
Interim Report 2003
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okt
nov
dec
44
Significant pressure on revenue halts EBITDAR improvement EBITDAR MSEK 3 500
4 EBITDAR in Q3 2003 was 1 737 (2 130) MSEK
3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 -500
Q1
Q2
Q3
-1 000 2001
2002
2003
Q4
EBITDAR – Scandin Airl. 633 MSEK – Braathens 325 MSEK – Spanair 591 MSEK – Widerøe 88 MSEK – Blue1 14 MSEK
3rd Interim Report 2003
45
Gap mainly found in compensation schemes
Summary Turnaround 2005
3rd Interim Report 2003
46
The Turnaround 2005 business follow up a complement to existing follow up systems • Steering of units on bottom line and include all effects of Turnaround 2005 • Follow up through normal reporting
Efficient production platform
Crew
Technical maintenance
Sales & Distribution
Budget and Business Plans
Overhead & Support
– Follow up status negotiations – Follow up FTE reductions
FTE Follow up
Compensation on competitive level
Steering of businesses and business units
KPI
– Follow up of existing KPIs – KPIs on unit level task force and activity level
Follow up activity
– Follow up of activities vs plan 3rd Interim Report 2003
47
3rd Interim Report 2003
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48
Distribution of cost reductions in Turnaround 2005 by cost category
Development of the number of employees in the SAS Group
Aircraft lease 36 000
Personell 9%
6%
Inflight
11%
Forecast
IT 34 000
3rd Interim Report 2003
> 40%
600
600
550
550
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350 2002
2005
– Cabin crew block hours from 530 to 750 – Pay freeze 2003/2004 – Flexible scheduling
3rd Interim Report 2003
300
2002
DEC
NOV
SEP
OKT
JUL
AUG
JUN
APR
MAJ
FEB
MAR
DEC
JAN-03
NOV
SEP
OKT
JUL
AUG
MSEK
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
650
> 40%
650
300
Block hours per year, pilots 700
700
50
Improvement measures amounting to MSEK 1 900 for Subsidiary Airlines and Hotels
New agreements with possibility to increase crew and pilot block hours by over 40%
750
3rd Interim Report 2003
49
Block hours per year, cabin crew
JUN
Target SEK 13-14 billion of which SEK 12 billion is decided
APR
32 000
MAJ
Ground Handling & Technical Other
49%
FEB
9%
MAR
5%
33 926
ACT
JAN02
Sales
11%
34 496
2005
– Work day from 10,5 to 12 hrs/day – Hours/week up from 42 to 45 – Pay freeze 2003/2004 – Block hours from 490 to 700-750
51
500
4 Initiated April 2003 4 Total measures of at least MSEK 1 900 4 75% of measures will give effect in 2004
500
300
Spanair
Braathens
Widerøe
150
150
Blue1
Hotels
3rd Interim Report 2003
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52
Automatic check in will increase SGS efficiency
New organization – three bases
Target to increase Self Service check in to 60% in 2005 Internet check low, but increasing Best performance 9% internet check in Bromma - Copenhagen
CEO/GM
Separation of bases and new leaner organization
COO COO
35% 30%
Network and Strategies, Revenue network and revenue Strategies
Staber Staff unit (STODQ)
Marketing Marketing and and Product Channel Management Management
Accountable Accountable Manager Manager and and Operations Operations Management Management
25% 20% 15%
New agreements with unions and separation of bases => Productivity improvements up to 750 blhr/year
10% 5%
03 09
20
03 08
03 07
20
20
03 05
03 06
20
03 04
Self Service
20
03 03
20
20
03 02
03 01
20
20
02 11
20
20
02 12
0%
Internet check in
3rd Interim Report 2003
700 650
> 40%
35%
600
30%
550 500
25%
400
20%
350 300
3rd Interim Report 2003
Intercont Intercont
Commuter Commuter
54
Cabin crew 750
450
2002
15%
2005
10%
Pilots 700 650 600
5%
> 40%
0%
550
ja n00 ar -0 m 0 aj -0 0 ju l- 0 se 0 p0 no 0 v00 01 -ja 01 n -m a 01 r -m a 01 j Q nov 120 Q 02 320 Q 02 120 Q 03 320 03
500 450
m
Utilize aircraft 1 more hour per day at 3 bases Aircraft types allocated to bases Decrease overhead and administration Centralization of base maintenance to Stockholm- Arlanda PFI for pilots implemented as from August New aircraft configuration with approx. 7% more seats Increase internet sales share Improve check-in automation
STO STO
Electronic Channels increased to 30% in Q3
Summary structural changes in Turnaround 2005
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
OSL OSL
3rd Interim Report 2003
53
4 Increased productivity by more than 40% in Scandinavian Airlines 4 New traffic system point to point
Board
CPH CPH
400 350 300
2002
4 Direct internet sales 4,8% of total sales (excluding Travel Pass and bookings through agents) 4 Total volume E-channels in Q3 MSEK 1 984 4 30% of total passenger volumes in Q3 4 Lowest price on homepage
% Sold - Travel Pass, Travel Pass Corporate, ETIX, Internet % Sold via Internet
2005
55
3rd Interim Report 2003
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56
New Internet booking launched in October will make booking simplier and transparent
New booking platform introduced on October 2nd Trip is booked one way.
Increased transparency! 3rd Interim Report 2003
New efficient booking platform
57
3rd Interim Report 2003
www.flysnowflake.com
58
3rd Quarter EBT before gains and exceptionals - Business area Business area Q3 03 Scandinavian Airlines -192 Subsidiary & Aff. Airlines 298 Airlines Support Businesses 119 Airline Related Businesses 12 Hotels -37 Group eliminations -99 EBT, before gains & exceptionals 101
3rd Interim Report 2003
Q3 02 -273 316 118 36 124 -271 50
Change 81 -18 1 -24 -161 51
59
3rd Interim Report 2003
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60
Sharp reduction in unit cost from Q2 continued in 3rd Quarter
Business Models Today Clear distinction between LCC’c and Network Carrier Business Models
Index last year, EBITDAR level (currency adjusted) Scandinavian Airlines 10%
4 Q1 unit cost down 2,0% 4 Q2 unit cost down by 13% 4 Q3 unit cost down by 14%
5%
– Turnaround 2005 0%
– Net pricing model – Limited long haul effect – Some effect from snowflake introduction
-5% -10% -15%
1st Q 2001
3rd Q 2001
1st Q 2002
3rd Q 2002
1st Q 2003
3rd Q 2003
Ultra simple travel
LCC’s with zero frills Secondary A/P’s ~100 km outside city centers
§ §
4Forceful implementation of Turnaround 2005 4Close gap to non frills 4Find the right Business model for each traffic flow
LCC’s with zero frills Secondary A/P’s ~100 km outside city centers
§ §
§ § § §
LCC’s with zero frills Secondary A/P’s ~100 km outside city centers
§ §
§ §
Network carriers Hub/O&D driven Frills Alliances allow worldwide coverage
Simple travel
Advanced travel
62
Simple travel
§ §
LCC’s with certain frills Secondary A/P’s closer to city centers or primary A/P’s
Advanced travel
§ § § §
Network carriers Hub/O&D driven Frills Alliances allow worldwide coverage
Tomorrow Today
Advanced travel
LCC’s with certain frills Secondary A/P’s closer to city centers or primary A/P’s
§
3rd Interim Report 2003
Ultra simple travel
§
§
Business Models – Current and Future
Strategic focus going forward
§
§
Advanced travel
Tomorrow “How far left or right should an airline position itself?” “ How much added value can be offered in each of the Business Models?” We think they will interafct!
61
Simple travel
LCC’s with certain frills Secondary A/P’s closer to city centers or primary A/P’s
§
Ultra simple travel
3rd Interim Report 2003
Ultra simple travel
Simple travel
Clear distinction between LCC’c and Network Carrier Business Models
Network carriers Hub/O&D driven Frills Alliances allow worldwide coverage
Adjustment measures to narrow gap
LCC will partly adopt Business model by offering limited frills Network carriers will adjust to attract part of LCC’s potential but still keep an advanced premium service and network.
Service level network carrier
Service level no frills
3rd
Interim Report 2003
63
3rd
Interim Report 2003
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64
Scandinavian Airlines’ hit by weak economies and uncertain markets January – September Passenger revenue Other revenue Operating revenue EBITDAR
Scandinavian Airlines Development of the number of employees Proforma 2002
2003 19 989
2002 25 399
4 062
2 428
3 094
24 051
27 827
28 493
1 000
2 390
2 593
25 399
EBIT
-953
-380
-217
EBT
-1 459
-1 007
-886
11 000 10 365 Actual
10 000
Forecast 9 026
9 000 9 074
65
Scandinavian Airlines key airline profitability drivers
JU L AU G SE P OK T N OV DE C
N JA
3rd Interim Report 2003
M
02 FE B AR AP R M AJ JU N JU L AU G SE P O KT N O V DE JA C N -0 3 FE B M AR AP R M AJ JU N
8 000
3rd Interim Report 2003
66
Passenger Yield
3rd Quarter 2003 vs 2002 2003 vs 2002
Route Sector
January-September
Scandinavian Airline
Traffic (RPK) Cabin Factor Yields (currency adjusted)
down down down
6,6% 2,7 p.u. 12,7%
Unit costs
down
8,5%
Intercontinental Europe Intrascandinavian Denmark* Norway Sweden
Nominal yield
Currency effect
Adjusted yield
82
105
86
86 79 88 172 83 102
109 104 105 101 109 100
95 83 93 173 92 103
*) Incl Greenland 2002
3rd Interim Report 2003
67
3rd Interim Report 2003
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.sasgroup.net -- Results Jan - Sep 2003
68
Scandinavian Airlines passenger load factors in line with AEA average
Traffic on North Atlantic hit by war in Iraq but recovery noted in bookings RPK SK (Geograpical Europe) Spanair
75 70
AEA (Geograpical Europe)
65
4 Load factors over 90% during summer
60 40
0 -20
39
27
33
15
21
3
9
49
37
25
31
43
SAS
Ju ly Se pt em be r
ay M
AEA
3rd Interim Report 2003
69
70
European routes affected by uncertain market conditions
Asian traffic severely affected by SARS – recovery from June 30
Month
3rd
SAS
Interim Report 2003
RPK
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
71
SAS
39
34
29
24
19
14
4
Week
Cabin factor (%) Europe
AEA
3rd
SAS
te m be r
ly Ju
4 Traffic Jan-Sep 2003: – AEA traffic down 0,8% – SAS traffic down 2,0%
Se p
M ay
M ar ch
be r Ja nu ar y
em
te m be r
N ov
Ju
ly
75 70 65 60 55 50 45
Month
AEA
9
51
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
6
1
-20
Ja nu ar y
Se
4 Weak market 4 Cabin factor in line with AEA
15
Se p
pt em be r
ay
Ju ly
M
h ar c M
Ju ly pt em be r N ov em be r Ja nu ar y
ay M
Se
M
ar c
h
– AEA traffic down 10,1% – SAS traffic down 18,2%
20
11
34 39
AEA
25
M ay
95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50
24 29
4
51
9 14 19 SAS
Cabin factor (%) Asia
4 Scandinavian Airlines ranked high in customer surveys 4 Daily frequencies resumed to Bangkok/ Singapore and Beijing as nd from August 22nd 4 Traffic in Jan-Sep 2003:
M ar ch
Week
41 46
31 36
21 26
RPK
6 11 16
1
13
Month
3rd Interim Report 2003
Ja nu ar y
19
Week 2002-2003
Ju ly Se pt em be N r ov em be r Ja nu ar y M ar ch
Ja
nu ar y
29 34 39
19 24
4
9 14
46 51
36 41
26 31
16 21
6 11
40
ar ch
45
M
50
Cabin factor (%) North Atlantic
ay
95 90 85 80 75 70 65
M
55
7
1
-40
Source: AEA
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60
4 Daily frequencies from Copenhagen, Oslo and Stockholm since March 4 Oslo-New York nonstop three times per week with A330 during next winter 4 Traffic in Jan-Sep 2003: – European airlines (AEA) traffic up 3,8% – SAS traffic up 12,2%
20
60
1
Pass load factor (%) 3 weeks roling
80
80
AEA
Interim Report 2003
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.sasgroup.net -- Results Jan - Sep 2003
72
Yields under severe pressure
Bookings has stabilized
2001- 3rd Quarter 2003 Total system - currency adjusted
130
4 Yields down 14,1% in 3rd Quarter 2003
120
2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -16%
110
100
90
80
70 27-jul
03-aug
10-aug
17-aug
HIGH YIELD
24-aug
LOW YIELD
31-aug
07-sep
14-sep
21-sep
28-sep
3rd Quarter 2001
1st Quarter 2002
3rd Quarter 2002
1st Quarter 2003
3rd Quarter 2003
TTL BOOKINGS
4 Bookings to Europe back to 2002 levels 4 Asia recovered since June 4 High yield bookings increase in the end of September 3rd Interim Report 2003
– Affected by: – introduction of Snowflake by app 7-8 p.p – Easter holidays – Class mix negative – Price campaigns – More RPK’s of intercontinental traffic with lower yield
4 Reduced commissions by ~3%
3rd Interim Report 2003
73
74
Brent Crude vs. Jet Fuel January 1998 to Date
ECA – European cooperation agreement still negative but improvements in 3rd Quarter 60
4Tri-party Joint Venture agreement with BMI, Lufthansa and SAS signed November 9, 1999 4In effect from January 1, 2000 4Main scope: To integrate the parties scheduled pass. transport to/ from London/ Manchester 4Negative result effect 2002: MSEK 418 (335)
50
450
Brent 1st Nearby Close
400 350
US Dollar per Barrel
300 250
30 200 20
150
US Dollar per Metric Ton
Jet CIF Cargoes NWE 40
100 10 50
4 Effect Q1 2003 - MSEK 120 4 Effect Q2 2003 - MSEK 88 4 Effect Q3 2003 - MSEK 71
3rd Interim Report 2003
0
19 98 19 -01 98 -0 2 1 9 -0 3 98 -3 0 19 -06 98 -2 6 19 -09 98 -2 1 1 9 -1 2 99 -1 6 19 -03 99 1 6 19 -06 99 -1 5 19 -09 99 -0 8 20 -12 00 -0 1 20 -02 00 -2 9 20 -05 00 -2 6 20 -08 00 -2 1 20 -11 01 -1 4 20 -02 01 -1 2 20 -05 01 -1 0 20 -08 01 -0 3 20 -10 02 -3 0 20 -01 02 -2 5 2 0 -0 4 02 -2 4 20 -07 02 -2 3 2 0 -1 0 03 -1 5 2 0 -0 1 03 -1 0 20 -04 03 -0 4 2 0 -0 7 03 -0 -0 2 926
0
75
3rd Interim Report 2003
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.sasgroup.net -- Results Jan - Sep 2003
76
2003 fully hedged 4 Average rates: 4 4 4 4 4 4
2000 2001 2002 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003
265 USD/MT 255 USD/MT 229 USD/MT 278 USD/MT 264 USD/MT 264 USD/MT
Current hedging until year end Mainly CAPS Average for 12 months forward
99% 20%
Estimated jet fuel cost MSEK 3 000 3rd Interim Report 2003
77
Operating revenues Operating expenses EBITDAR EBT bef gains
New improvement measures of MSEK 1 800 identified and initiated
January – September 2003 2002* 13 499 12 877 -11 666 -10 183 18 33 -42
Jan-Sep in MSEK
2 694 381
* = Spanair was included as an affiliated company Jan/Feb 2002
3rd Interim Report 2003
78
Subsidiary & Affiliated Airlines not immune to falling revenues
Income Subsidiary & Affiliated Airlines (MSEK)
3rd Interim Report 2003
79
Revenues
6 020
9,3%
4 898
-11%
1 862
-2,1%
EBITDAR
915
12%
703
-46%
256
-22%
75
-63%
EBT
-45
79%
101
-84%
30
-55%
-38
n.m
3rd Interim Report 2003
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.sasgroup.net -- Results Jan - Sep 2003
686 -12,2%
80
Braathens affected by significantly lower yield
Improvements in Spanish market as from June Revenue increased by 9,3% Unit costs down by 4,8% Charter traffic successively better Spanair joined Star Alliance as from April 2003 EBT in Q2 MSEK 86 EBT in Q3 MSEK 238
Yield down 19,1% - partly explained by average longer routes Four new destinations introduced as from March 31st Cabin factor increased by 0,4 p.u Substantial cost measures extended to app MSEK 500 with full effect 2004
Number of passengers up 3,9% in Q2 up 8,0% in Q3 Increased market share on Spanish domestic routes
January – September January – September
2003
2002
Operating revenue
Operating revenue
6 020
5 506
EBT
-45
-211
EBT 3rd Interim Report 2003
81
2003
2002
4 898
5 515
-101
634
3rd Interim Report 2003
82
3rd Interim Report 2003
84
Blue1 affected by close down Widerøe hit by weak yield development of Tampere airport in July New route Helsinki-Geneve introduced in Q3 Increased market shares in weak market
Yield down by 20,5% To implement MSEK 300 in cost improvement measurements
2003
2002
January – September
2003
2002
Operating revenue
686
781
Operating revenue
1 862
1 901
EBT
-38
77
30
66
January – September
3rd Interim Report 2003
EBT
83
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.sasgroup.net -- Results Jan - Sep 2003
Airline Support Businesses
Airline Support Businesses January – September (MSEK) Operating revenues Operating expenses
2003 10 417 -10 023
2002 15 135 -14 487
EBITDA
394
648
EBT
-14
236
Jan-Sep in MSEK
Revenues
SAS World Sales moved to Scandinavian Airlines
3rd Interim Report 2003
85
4 163
0,0%
4 205
-6,7%
2 166
6,0%
EBITDA
314
43%
-38
n.m
62
n.m
EBIT
106
n.m
-136
n.m
30
n.m
3rd Interim Report 2003
86
Income Business Area Airline Related Business SAS Cargo moved to Business Area Airlines Support Businesses in 2002 SMART sold in August 2002
January - September MSEK
Operating revenues Operating expenses EBITDA
Income before taxes
3rd Interim Report 2003
87
3rd Interim Report 2003
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.sasgroup.net -- Results Jan - Sep 2003
2003
2002
3 571 -3 334
4 457 -4 059
237
398
30
111
88
Airline Related Businesses Jan-Sep in MSEK
SAS Trading
Revenues
1 535 -8,4% 1 175
EBITDA EBT
-25%
368
-16%
332 18,6%
148
-16%
-37
n.m
82
-30%
23
n.m
77
-4,9%
-58
n.m
7
-82%
17
n.m
3rd Interim Report 2003
89
3rd Interim Report 2003
90
Rezidor SAS Hospitality – expanding with new brands Large potential of chain brands in Europa Three new brands added: Park Inn opened in 14 cities in Sweden
Financials
Number of hotels 250 200
Franchised
150
Managed
100
Leased
50
Owned
03 20
1
2 Q3
'0
'0
9
8
0 '0
'9
7 '9
'9
5
6 '9
'9
'9
4
0
3rd Interim Report 2003
91
3rd Interim Report 2003
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.sasgroup.net -- Results Jan - Sep 2003
92
Commited Credit Facilities of MSEK 6 800
High financial maneuverability Aircraft CAPEX 1 000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
Liquidity of MSEK 7 483 Committed credit facilities MSEK 6 800 7 banks agreed facility MEUR 350 Solidity 22% CAPEX holiday Young fleet Real estates released in fourth quarter
MSEK
2001
2002 2003F 2004F 2005F 2006F 2007F
Additional sources of capital Aircraft Non-core businesses
3rd Interim Report 2003
3 100
Aircraft Finance Lease Facility
2 200
Bi-lateral Facilities
1 100 6 800 14 283
3rd Interim Report 2003
93
94
Undervalue in fleet in September by MSEK 351 but neutralized as USD has appreciated to SEK
Target >30%