2017 ECONOMIC AND WORKFORCE PROFILE Green County
STATE OF WISCONSIN
DETI-17957-GRN-P (R. 3/2018)
Percentage of Total PopulaƟon, Ages 65 and Older
Wisconsin now has more people employed and more private sector jobs than at any me in its history. As of this wri ng, the state added 56,100 jobs during 2016 and 2017 . Employment increased in almost all industry sectors, with prominent gains in construc on, manufacturing, and healthcare. Wisconsin’s unemployment rate is near lows not seen in a genera on, decreasing from 4.3 percent in January 2016 to 3.2 percent in December 2017, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Wisconsin faces a worker quan ty challenge. The number of re ring Baby Boomers nearly match the influx of new workers, resul ng in a slow growing workforce and placing constraints on the ability by employers across all industries to hire talent. Many businesses report that the lack of available workers has hindered expansion and, in some cases, even curtailed their ability to meet current product orders. The blue‐line, orange‐line graph to the right illustrates the situa on in Wisconsin and other upper‐Midwest states. While Wisconsin's popula‐ on will con nue to grow over the next twenty years, the workforce faces serious constraints. The labor force par cipa on rate (LFPR), defined as the labor force (sum of employed and unemployed) divided by the total popula on ages 16 and older, measures the popula‐ on's engagement in the workforce and serves as an indicator in deter‐ mining how Wisconsin's workforce will be constrained. The overall LFPR peaked in the late 1990s and has been trending lower ever since. The LFPR of peaks across Source: Local Area Unemployment Sta s cs, Bureau of Labor Sta s cs the 30‐55 age cohort at over ninety percent and decreases rapidly into the single digits by age seventy. Baby Boomers have and con nue to exit with respect to their LFPR. The mass of Baby Boomers has moved into the work lifecycle stage of declining LFPRs, with the tail end of the cohort turning 55 in 2019. A recent development is the change in the labor force par cipa on rate trend. The LFPR of older workers (those aged 55 years and older) has turned upwards, resul ng in fla en‐ ing of the overall LFPR. More boom‐ ers are staying in the workforce longer, which may portend higher workforce growth over the coming years. Due to the size of the Baby Boomer cohort and the sensi vity of the LFPR to workforce growth rates, a rela vely small change in the LFPR of older workers would significantly boost the number in the workforce. Source: Bureau of Labor Sta s cs
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PopulaƟon and Demographics
Source: Demographic Services Center, Wisconsin Department of Administra on
Green County gained a total of 65 residents from April 2010 to January 2016, ranking as the 39th largest county in the state at the end of the period. The county’s near nominal rate of increase, 0.2 percent, contrasts with the state growth of 1.5 percent and the na on’s increase of 4.8 percent. Popula on changes are made up of two components: natural and migra on. Natural changes compare births and deaths. Migra on looks at movement of people in and out of an area. In Green County, the decline in popu‐ la on is dictated by a nega ve net migra on rate (‐0.5 percent), placing a significant drag on the county’s posi‐ ve rate of natural increase (0.8 percent). Green County’s natural increase was lower than the state’s 1.8 per‐ cent and the na on’s 2.8 percent. The table above lists Green County’s ten most popu‐ lous municipali es as of January 2016. Green Coun‐ ty’s popula on is rela vely concentrated in the City of Monroe, which accounts for more than 29 per‐ cent of the popula on, with the remaining popula‐ on more evenly distributed across the rest of the top municipali es. The ten largest municipali es account for 70.7 percent of the county’s popula on.
Components of PopulaƟon Change
Most of the outmigra on within Green County is taking place in the City and Town of Monroe. The City of Monroe lost an es mated 110 residents and the Town of Monroe lost 2. Green County’s por on of the City of Brodhead, the Village of New Glarus, and the Town of Clarno also lost popula on. The county's net popula on increase largely oc‐ curred outside the 10 largest communi es in the county, as the net change in popula on within the top 10 municipali es was nega ve (‐42).
Source: Demographic Services Center, Wisconsin Department of Administra on
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Labor Force Dynamics
Source: Local Area Unemployment Sta s cs, Bureau of Labor Sta s cs The chart above plots the month‐ ly rates of unem‐ ployment for Green County, Wisconsin and the US over the last 17 years. The rate of unemployment climbed during the early 2000s recession to levels that were, on average, lower for the na on and higher for the state, rela ve to the previous (1990s) recession. The recovery a er the early 2000s recession was a rela vely weak recovery in terms of job crea on. As the chart shows, the employment recovery between 2003 and 2007 did not result in a significant decline in the unemployment rate. This is explained by a low rate of job crea on in the early phase of the 2003‐2007 upturn. This increase in job crea‐ on was interrupted by the Great Recession, which was character‐ ized by a rapid contrac on of jobs across regions, industrial sectors and demographic groups.
The dynamics of unemployment in Green County compared to the state and na on have followed state and na onal trends in gen‐ eral, while fluctua ng more in‐ tensely during the "great reces‐ sion." The labor force is the sum of em‐ ployed and unemployed. The chart to the le shows the annual labor force in Green County . Source: Local Area Unemployment Sta s cs, Bureau of Labor Sta s cs
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Industry Employment and Wages
The largest industry sector in Green County is the trade, transporta on and u li es sector, with an employment share of 24.9 percent, and a payroll share of 25.4 percent. Manufacturing is in second place, with an employment share of 22.4 percent and payroll share of 26.8 percent. Educa on and health comes in at third place, with em‐ ployment and payroll shares of 19.3 and 22.7 percent, respec vely. The rela onship between employment and payroll shares illustrates that wages are above the overall county average in these three sectors. The table at the bo om reports average annual wages by sector in Green County and Wisconsin, including the county’s share of annual wages by industry compared to the state. Green County’s annual average wage was $37,708 in 2016, 81.9 percent of the statewide average of $46,031. Compared with statewide averages by indus‐ try, all sectors reported lower average annual wages.
The highest‐paying sector in 2016 was manufacturing, with an average annual wage of $44,992. Coming in a closer second place, educa on & health paid annual average wages of $44,363 in 2016. Green County’s lowest‐paying sector was leisure and hospi‐ tality with an annual average wage of $12,298, 72.3 percent of the statewide average. Many jobs in this sector are part‐ me and/or seasonal.
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Employment ProjecƟons
In addi on to looking at the current state of the economy in Green County, it is useful to look at projec ons of how employment in the area is expected to change. What follows are projec ons of employment changes by in‐ dustry sector and by occupa on. Please note that these projec ons are for the collec ve coun es of Grant, Green, Iowa, Lafaye e, Richland, and Rock. Together, these six coun es form the Southwest Wisconsin Workforce Devel‐ opment Area (WDA). These projec ons use informa on from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, includ‐ ing unpublished data from the Bureau of Labor Sta s cs (BLS) as well as data from the Census Bureau’s Current Popula on Survey (CPS). While these projec ons consider an cipated changes in Wisconsin's economy, please note that unan cipated events may affect the accuracy of the projec on. In 2014, the area’s three largest industry sectors by jobs were the Educa on & Health Services; Trade, Transporta‐ on, & U li es; and Manufacturing. Together, these sectors represented 56.7 percent of jobs in 2014 and are ex‐ pected to be the three largest industries in 2024. The Educa on & Health Services sector is projected to gain more jobs than the other two leading sectors. Overall, these three sectors are projected to add 5,554 jobs by 2024, a 3.7 percent increase from 2014. The share of total jobs by industry sector is projected to change li le through 2024. The Manufacturing sector's numerical growth of 559 appears to be somewhat nominal given the size of the region however readers should note that while the numerical growth manufacturing employment is slight, there will be many opportuni es for a new genera on of workers in manufacturing because re rements in the sector are going to outpace employment declines due to economic and demographic shi s. This will con nue into the foreseeable future. The Educa on & Health Services sector is projected to have the largest numeric gain in jobs with 3,554 addi onal jobs in 2024, a 9.4 percent gain from 2014. The Educa on & Health Services sector is one of three sectors in the WDA with growth rates in excess of nine percent. All sectors, except for Government and Informa on, are project‐ ed to gain jobs by 2024.
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Employment ProjecƟons
Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, September 2015
In 2014, the area's largest occupa on group was Office & Administra ve Support with 20,956 jobs, 13.8 percent of total employment. Of the twenty‐two occupa on groups, the top five together accounted for 51.8 percent of jobs. All five of these groups are projected to remain in the top five in 2024 and their share of total employment is projected to decline slightly, to 50.5 percent of jobs. The share of total jobs by occupa onal group is projected to change li le through 2024. However, four of the top five groups, Office & Administra ve Support; Produc on; Educa on, Training & Library and Sales & Related, are projected to experience slight declines in employment share. The Healthcare Prac oners group is projected to have the largest gain in share, with a rise from 4.7 percent to 5.2 percent over the projec on period. The largest numeric increase in jobs will occur in the Healthcare Prac oners with a net increase of 1,193 jobs by 2024, a 17 percent gain. The Personal Care & Services group is projected to have the largest propor onal gain, increasing by 20 percent over the period. The Arts, Entertainment & Media occupa on group is projected to experience the most nominal of decreases in employment by 2024, sheading nine jobs. All other occupa on groups are projected to add jobs. The graph on the top of the next page displays Southwest Wisconsin WDA's job base by major industry sector and outlines the age distribu on of its job holders. The graph examines job holders’ age based upon jobs located in the eight‐county area without regard to where the worker lives.
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Readers may no ce that the age bands can be quite different industry to industry. Two factors that shape this composi on are labor availability and the occupa onal composi on within the industries. Labor availability is dic‐ tated by the overarching age composi on of the popula on and the likelihood of par cipa on in the labor force. The highest par cipa on is likely to occur between the ages of the mid‐twen es to late fi ies/early six es. Industry age is determined by labor availability and occupa onal composi on. For all industries combined, the largest group of workers are in the 45‐54 age group. Over me, the share of the workforce in this cohort will shrink as baby‐boomers age. The aging demographics will lead to growth in the 55‐64 and 65‐99 age cohorts as shares of total popula on. Age composi on, however, varies between industries based on occupa onal composi on. Occupa onal composi‐ on is influenced by numerous factors such as a job holder’s life stage, experience, educa on, and training. In short, industries that heavily rely on entry level occupa ons will be younger than industries made up of occupa‐ ons that require highly educated workers with years of experiences. In terms of an aged workforce, coming in first, second, and third are Public Administra on (56.5 percent 45 or older), Financial Ac vi es (52.9 percent 45 or older) and Educa on & Health (51.9 percent 45 or older). The large share of older workers may have been par ally caused by the great recession and its a ermath. The recession made layoffs necessary, and layoffs are o en determined by seniority. However, the aging workforce is primarily caused by an aging popula on. Therefore, a rela vely old labor force may become an issue.
For More InformaƟon: William Brockmiller Regional Economist — Southwest WDA Phone: (608) 785‐9337 Email:
[email protected]
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