TOURISME MONTREAL PKF CONSULTING AND CBRE HOTELS’ OUTLOOK FOR THE CANADIAN LODGING SECTOR 2015/2016
September 17, 2015
Economic and Travel Outlooks
National Economic Outlook - 2015/16 1.4%
2.2%
2.4%
1.8
4.0% $1.80
1.75
3.0%
$1.77
1.7
2.0%
$1.74 $1.70
1.0%
$1.66
$1.63
1.6
0.0%
% Change
1.65
Real GDP % Change
$1.59
$1.58 1.55
-1.0% $1.54
1.5
-2.0%
1.45
-3.0% 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015f
2016p
Source: Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada, Canadian Outlook Summer 2015, Scotiabank Group – Global Forecast Update 2015; CIBC World Markets – Monthly FX Outlook, 2015; RBC – Economic and Financial Market Outlook – 2015 Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
National Travel Outlook 2015/16 2014 Actual
2015 Forecast
2016 Projection
Business Travel Domestic
2.5%
0.3%
2.7%
Pleasure Travel Domestic
2.4%
2.7%
2.2%
Total Domestic Travel
2.0%
2.1%
2.1%
U.S. Travel
1.1%
7.5%
3.2%
Overseas Travel
9.3%
5.0%
4.1%
TOTAL OVERNIGHT TRAVEL
2.2%
2.7%
2.3%
National Accommodation Demand Growth
3.2%
1.0%
2.4%
Overnight Travel
Source: Canadian Tourism Research Institute, Conference Board of Canada, Fall 2015 Forecast Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
Regional Travel Outlooks - % Growth 2017f
Western Canada
2.7%
2016f
2.4%
2015f
2.4%
2.2%
2.3%
2.4%
2.5%
2.6%
2017f
Central Canada
2.3%
2015f
3.0% 0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2017f
Atlantic Canada
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1.6%
2016f
1.9%
2015f 0.0%
2.8%
2.6%
2016f
0.0%
2.7%
1.7% 0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Source: Canadian Tourism Research Institute, Conference Board of Canada, Fall 2015 Forecast Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
3.5%
National Outlook 2014/2015
National Supply & Demand Outlook Supply & Demand Growth 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 2.4%
Percent Growth
2.5%
2.0% 1.5%
1.5%
1.3%
National Occupancy 2014 Actual
64%
2015 Forecast
64%
2016 Projection
65%
1.0%
1.0% 0.6% 0.5%
0.0%
2014
2015p 2016f
Supply
2014
2015p
Demand
2016f
Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
National ADR, RevPar & Bottom Line Outlook National ADR Growth
National RevPar Growth
2014 Actual
3.7%
2015 Forecast
3.9%
2014 Actual
6.3%
2016 Projection
3.5%
2015 Forecast
3.4%
2016 Projection
4.7%
Adjusted Net Operating Income per Available Room ($000's)
ANOI Growth $13.0 $12.5 $12.0 $11.5 $11.0 $10.5 $10.0 $9.5 $9.0 $8.5 $8.0
$12.5 $11.6 $10.8
2014
2015p
2016f
Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
Regional Market and Financial Outlooks
Regional RevPar Outlook 4.1%
2015 RevPar Growth
5.3%
Western
0.9%
$100
Central
6.1%
$95
Atlantic
1.8%
$97
$90
$96
$94
RevPAR ($)
$85
$92
4.4%
$92
$80
2016 RevPar Growth
$86
$75
$77
$70
$72
$65
Western
4.1%
Central
5.3%
Atlantic
4.4%
$73
$60 $55 $50 West
Central
Atlantic
Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
2014 2015f 2016p
Regional Bottom Line Outlook 2015 ANOI Growth 6.0%
Adjusted Net Operating Income per Available Room ($000's)
$16.0
10.8%
$14.0
Western
(0.2%)
Central
16.7%
Atlantic
5.4%
$15.4 $14.5 $14.5
8.1%
$12.0 $10.0
$11.1 $10.1
$8.0
$8.6
$6.0
2016 ANOI Growth Western
6.0%
Central
10.8%
Atlantic
8.1%
$8.1 $7.1
$7.5
$4.0 $2.0 $0.0
West
Central
Atlantic
Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
2014 2015f 2016p
Major Market Outlooks
Major Market Outlooks* RevPar Projection - 2016 2 - 4% RevPar Growth
2.0%
Regina
4.0%
Edmonton
6.0%
Calgary
< 2% RevPar Growth Saskatoon
> 5% RevPar Growth
-8.0%
St. John’s
Winnipeg
Quebec City
Montreal
Ottawa
Niagara Falls
-6.0%
Halifax
-4.0%
Toronto
-2.0%
Vancouver
0.0%
-10.0% * ‘Major Markets’ refer to Greater Metro Areas Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
2016 RevPAR Ranking Vancouver Ottawa Montreal Toronto St. John’s Quebec City Calgary Saskatoon Niagara Falls Halifax Edmonton Winnipeg Regina
$126 $116 $114 $107 $107 $105 $104 $99 $97 $87 $83 $81 $73
Economic and Travel Outlook for Montreal
Montreal Economic Indicators
2014 Actual
2015 Forecast
2016 Projection
Manufacturing Employment
(0.6%)
2.6%
3.7%
Construction Employment
(9.6%)
0.5%
0.4%
Service Sector Employment
0.3%
1.1%
1.7%
GDP Growth
2.2%
2.6%
2.7%
Source: Conference Board of Canada
Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
Montreal Travel Indicators 2014 Estimate
2015 Forecast
2016 Projection
Business Travel Overnight Domestic
2.3%
1.7%
2.3%
Pleasure Travel Overnight Domestic
1.4%
2.8%
2.2%
U.S. Overnight Travel
2.4%
4.0%
2.1%
Overseas Overnight Travel
6.0%
4.3%
4.3%
TOTAL OVERNIGHT TRAVEL
2.5%
2.8%
2.4%
DEMAND GROWTH
0.7%
2.1%
2.1%
Source: Canadian Tourism Research Institute, Conference Board of Canada, Spring 2015 Forecast
Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
Montreal Overall & SubMarkets Market & Financial Outlooks
Room Supply and Demand (000s)
Montreal Accommodation Supply & Demand 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2011
2012
2013 Supply
2014
2015 (f)
Demand
Note: Room supply is year round supply greater than 29 rooms. Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
2016 (p)
Market Outlook – Montreal Overall 2013
2014
2015F
2016P
TOTAL MONTREAL Rooms Occupancy ADR RevPar
23,957 67% $140 $93
23,147 69% $146 $101
23,107 71% $153 $108
23,477 71% $160 $114
%chg
2013
2014
2015F
2016P
(0.4%) 2.2% 2.9% 5.6%
(3.4%) 0.7% 4.6% 9.0%
(0.2%) 2.1% 4.9% 7.3%
1.6% 2.1% 4.3% 4.8%
Supply Demand ADR RevPar
Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
Market Outlook – Downtown Montreal DOWNTOWN Rooms Occupancy ADR RevPar
%chg Supply Demand ADR RevPar
2013
2014
2015F
2016P
15,778 68% $153 $104
14,968 72% $164 $117
14,872 73% $174 $127
15,164 73% $182 $134
2013
2014
2015F
2016P
(0.6%) 2.9% 4.1% 7.7%
(5.1%) (0.1%) 6.8% 12.5%
(0.6%) 2.0% 6.0% 8.8%
2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
Market Outlook – Montreal Airport AIRPORT Rooms Occupancy ADR Revpar
%chg Supply Demand ADR Revpar
2013
2014
2015F
2016P
4,899 66% $117 $77
4,899 68% $118 $80
4,899 71% $119 $84
4,899 72% $122 $88
2013
2014
2015F
2016P
0.0% 1.7% (0.2%) 1.5%
0.0% 3.7% 0.2% 3.9%
0.0% 4.0% 1.5% 5.6%
0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
Market Outlook – Laval 2013
2014
2015F
2016P
LAVAL Rooms Occupancy ADR Revpar
1,610 65% $120 $78
1,610 65% $126 $82
1,610 63% $130 $82
1,610 64% $134 $86
%chg
2013
2014
2015F
2016P
0.0% 1.4% 0.4% 1.8%
0.0% 1.2% 4.8% 6.1%
0.0% (4.0%) 3.5% (0.6%)
0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 5.1%
Supply Demand ADR Revpar
Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
Market Outlook – Other Montreal OTHER Rooms Occupancy ADR RevPar
%chg Supply Demand ADR RevPar
2013
2014
2015F
2016P
1,699 60% $108 $65
1,699 61% $109 $66
1,755 61% $111 $68
1,833 60% $114 $68
2013
2014
2015F
2016P
0.0% 0.2% 2.6% 2.8%
0.0% 2.0% 0.8% 2.8%
3.3% 2.5% 2.5% 1.7%
4.4% 3.0% 2.5% 1.1%
Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
Financial Outlook – Montreal $14 $12 $10
$2 $0 2013 (a)
2014 (a) National
2015 (f) Central Canada
Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at www.pkfcanada.com
2016 (p) Montreal
$10.9
$11.2
$12.5
$9.8
$10.1
$11.6
$8.3
$6.4
$4
$7.3
$6
$8.6
$10.8
$8
$9.6
Net Income Per Available Room ($000's)
$16
Concluding Remarks
PKF Consulting Canada PKF CONSULTING David Larone Brian Stanford Fran Hohol Erin O’Brien Rebecca Godfrey David Ferguson Kirstin Hallett Nicole Nguyen Robert Sedore Gregory Hives Lauren Arnold Kailey Gomez Carol Lopes JoAnne Orr
CBRE HOTELS VALUATION & ADVISORY Brian Flood Cindy Schoenauer Vanessa Boland CBRE HOTELS BROKERAGE Bill Stone Greg Kwong Deborah Borotsik Karina Toome Marc-Aurele MaillouxGagnon
www.pkfcanada.com