Ad Blocking Survey and Forecast Embargoed un-l 7am ET on 5/17/2016 © Op-mal.com Corp. 2016 All Rights Reserved
Table of Contents
The Op-mal.com Ad Blocking Survey and Forecast
Summary Findings What we found and why
Forecast
US ad blocking (2016-2020)
Survey Results
Response data and relevant cross-tabs
Recommenda-ons What to do and what’s next?
About Us
Who we are and how to reach us
Summary Findings What we found and why Today, 11.7% of ad impressions are being blocked in the US. Ad blocking in the US will reduce online and mobile display adver-sing revenue by $12.1 billion in 2020.
Summary Findings
Ad blocking will reduce US display adver-sing revenue by $3.9 billion in 2016, up to $12.1 billion in 2020 Op-mal.com’s blocker tracking data shows 11.7% of online display ad impressions were blocked in 2015 in the United States. Ad blocking will reduce online and mobile display adver-sing revenue in the US vs. previous industry forecasts of over $50 billion in 2020, dropping to $38.8 billion (23.8% or $12.1b lower), and $3.9b lower, a drop of 12.1%, in 2016. Countries like Germany, France, Sweden and the Netherlands already have ad blocking rates in excess of 20%, with countries like Greece, Ukraine and Poland in the 26-31% range. Mobile will be heavily impacted by ad blocking, with 48% of users ci-ng mobile popup ads as the most annoying/ intrusive ads across all media, and 31% ci-ng mobile video ads, in both cases seen as worse by consumers than TV ads (13%).
Op-mal.com data shows that today over 90% of ad blocked impressions are s-ll coming from desktop (and not mobile) browsing, but the trend toward mobile blocking will intensify, especially as mobile ads are seen by consumers as far more intrusive and annoying: mobile popup ads are considered 3.7 -mes worse than TV ads by those surveyed, with mobile video ads seen as 2.4 -mes more annoying. Given the low price for ad blockers (o`en free), simply increasing consumer awareness among non-blocking users will be a big driver for increasing ad blocking adop-on. The ad industry risks increasing adop-on by focusing on preven-ng ad blocking instead of fixing the underlying reasons consumers are seeking out these solu-ons.
US Ad Blocking Rate at 11.7% Based on Op-mal.com proprietary publisher analy-cs (Dec 2015-Feb 2016)
Source: Op-mal.com Corp. both desktop and mobile (2016)
Forecast US Ad Blocking (2016-2020) Ad blocking in the US will reduce online and mobile display adver-sing revenue by $12.1 billion in 2020 (a 24% reduc-on). In 2020, over 102 million users (36.6% of the US online audience) will be blocking ads at least monthly
PosiKve Drivers in the Forecast These factors are going to increase ad blocking adop5on over the next several years
% of ad blocking users ac5vely using Ac-ve user rates for these tools are usually very high, but could change over -me
Non-ad blocker adult awareness rate Many of these factors directly impact whether consumers are aware of the availability of ad blocking tools
Conversion rate to installing ad blockers Our assump-ons on conversion rates are generally modest, based both on our survey research and “usage” factors
Source: Op-mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016
NegaKve Drivers Include Legal Threats These are factors that will depress the growth of ad blocking in the United States
% of ad blocking users ac5vely using Ac-ve user rates for these tools are usually very high, but could change over -me
Non-ad blocker adult awareness rate Many of these factors directly impact whether consumers are aware of the availability of ad blocking tools
Conversion rate to installing ad blockers Our assump-ons on conversion rates are generally modest, based both on our survey research and “usage” factors
Source: Op-mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016
US Ad Blocker Usage More Than Triples US online users who regularly use ad blockers to exceed 102 million by 2020
% of US online users
US online users (‘000)
Source: Op-mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016
$39 Billion Blocked Over Next 5 Years US display adver-sing falls by $12.1 billion in 2020, about 24% of current market size es-mates Revenue ($ million)
% of US mobile & desktop display revenue
Sources: Op-mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016, eMarketer Oct 2015
Ad Blocking Kills Display Growth Rate CAGR for display adver-sing (‘16-’20) drops from 12.2% to 8.3% as revenue lost to ad blocking balloons
Model assumes CPMs increase Due to depressed inventory, we assume that prices increase by between 5% (2016) and 15% (2020) which par-ally offsets decline in inventory. These figures do in fact assume that increase occurs.
Lower impact on Facebook mobile Given the enormous mobile app footprint that Facebook has, and their ability to serve ads as a first-party, we assume a far smaller impact on their mobile adver-sing.
*CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate Sources: Op-mal.com US Ad Blocking Forecast, May 2016, eMarketer Oct 2015
Survey Results Conducted in April 2016
Op-mal.com and Wells Fargo Securi-es surveyed US smartphone users about their mobile phones, mobile and desktop ad blocking behavior and altudes. Survey was conducted using SurveyMonkey Audience panel.
OpKmal.com + Wells Fargo Survey We surveyed 1,712 US smartphone users about ad blocking behavior and altudes
48%
The propor-on of survey respondents whose primary smartphone is an Apple device, 27.6% iPhone 6/6S.
Approximately 30% of respondents selected one of the Android phones specified in the ques-on (e.g. Samsung Galaxy S5 or Google Nexus). What’s your average monthly mobile phone bill for voice and data in USD$?
Which brand/model is your primary phone? (some responses aggregated)
What’s your average monthly mobile phone bill for voice and data in USD$?
Source: Wells Fargo Securi-es, Op-mal.com (n=1,712) April 2016
A Third Have Exceeded Data Allowances And the weighted average data plan per person is 3.12 Gb/month
Have you ever paid an overage charge for exceeding your monthly data allowance?
Approximately how many Gigabytes (Gb) of data per person is your current mobile phone data plan (e.g. if it’s 4Gb and shared between two people, that would be 2Gb)?
Source: Wells Fargo Securi-es, Op-mal.com (n=1,712) April 2016
23% of Smartphone Users Block Ads Survey sample is adult smartphone users -> Op-mal US data indicates overall 11.7% ad block rate
Are you currently blocking some or all ads using a plugin, a special browser, or some
Country-weighted data, from OpNmal.com on-site ad blocking measurement, both
other soJware or blocking device?
mobile and desktop browsers
Note this is blocking on either desktop or mobile, or both Source: Wells Fargo Securi-es, Op-mal.com (n=1,712) April 2016, Op-mal.com publisher data Feb 2016
Blocking Similar by Age, Male Bias Women slightly less likely to block ads than men (20% vs. 27%)
Are you currently blocking some or all ads using a plugin, a special browser, or some other soJware or blocking device?
Source: Wells Fargo Securi-es, Op-mal.com (n=1,712) April 2016
Speed, Malware & Irrelevance Top Issues Privacy concerns and data costs are far smaller concerns for adblocking users today
Of those who’ve had phone data overage 47.6%
Why did you decide to block ads? (select top three)
Source: Wells Fargo Securi-es, Op-mal.com (n=392 who block ads) April 2016
Lack of Awareness Should Scare Pubs Almost half of non-blockers are not aware they can block ads, only 15% of people “don’t mind ads”
Why are you not currently blocking ads? (choose most important reason)
Source: Wells Fargo Securi-es, Op-mal.com (n=1320 who don’t block ads) April 2016
Lack of Awareness Should Scare Pubs Almost half of non-blockers are not aware they can block ads, only 15% of people “don’t mind ads”
Women Men
53% 36%
Women less aware of ad blocking than men
Age 18-29 8.8% Age 60+ 0.3%
Younger users concern over blocking impact
Why are you not currently blocking ads? (choose most important reason)
Source: Wells Fargo Securi-es, Op-mal.com (n=1320 who don’t block ads) April 2016
Other Reasons Why Not Blocking Ads Some answers make a lot of sense. Some others, well… you be the judge!
7.1%
“some sites require it disabled”
“Windows Phone doesn't allow.”
“I manually unsubscribe”
“What ads?”
“Don't get many ads, thank God”
“I'm too lazy to figure out how to do it”
“I don’t care enough one way or the other”
“not being bothered....yet”
“Ad blockers present their own problems on my system”
“I don't use the internet on my phone.”
“Company owned device, they do that.”
“I don't use the browser”
“I use my phone to make calls and text”
“Ad blockers harm your phone”
“hassle to block ads in several apps…”
“If I start gelng more and it's intrusive, I'll block them.”
“Blocking ads also affects content I want”
“Do not trust them”
“I have unlimited data. It doesn't mauer.”
“i block most apps from using cellular data”
“Ads from what? The only ads I ever experience are through apps that have ad content (Pandora for example).”
Users who provided “Other” as the reason why they’re not yet blocking ads: here were some of the verba-m reasons they gave…
“because ads pay for the content and don't want to be a free loading asshole” “phone not rooted”
“I use adblock on my laptop but ads on my phone don't bother me much.”
“I am on the no call list”
“I work in adver-sing and know that ads allow me to access content for free.”
Source: Wells Fargo Securi-es, Op-mal.com (n=1,712)
Mobile Ads More Annoying Than TV Ads Mobile popup ads considered 3.7 -mes worse than TV ads, mobile video 2.4 -mes worse
Which adverNsing do you find to be the most annoying/intrusive? (pick up to three)
Source: Wells Fargo Securi-es, Op-mal.com (n=1712) April 2016
Users 60+ Less Tolerant of TV, Desktop Users between 18-29 years of age much more annoyed by mobile video/popup ads
Most annoying/intrusive: Age 18-29 Age 60+
Television ads 18-29 8.8% 60+ 22.3% Mobile popup ads 18-29 52.1% 60+ 39.1% Mobile video ads 18-29 39.6% 60+ 21.5%
Which adverNsing do you find to be the most annoying/intrusive? (pick up to three)
Source: Wells Fargo Securi-es, Op-mal.com (n=407 age 18-29, n=368 age 60+) April 2016
Low Trust in Google, Facebook, Carriers However, 43% of people said they don’t trust any en-ty to protect their personal informa-on
Your Bank Block ads 36.0% Don’t block ads 45.2% Don’t Trust Any En-ty Block ads 48.2% Don’t block ads 40.8%
Which enNNes would you trust to protect your personal informaNon (check all that apply)
Your Employer Block ads 26.5% Don’t block ads 33.6%
Source: Wells Fargo Securi-es, Op-mal.com (n=1712) April 2016
Sharing is Caring. (SomeKmes) Facebook and Google 3x more likely trusted by 18-29 years old vs. 60+ age group
Which enNNes would you trust to protect your personal informaNon (check all that apply) Source: Wells Fargo Securi-es, Op-mal.com (n=1712) April 2016
Young Adults Far More TrusKng
32% of 18-29 year-olds would trust 4 or more of the en--es we listed with their personal informa-on
Count of -> Which enNNes would you trust to protect your personal informaNon (check all that apply)
Source: Wells Fargo Securi-es, Op-mal.com (n=1712) April 2016
PotenKal for Carrier-Led Blocking? A $9.99 price point might be too high, but younger users more willing to consider
Top 2 Box (very or somewhat likely)
If your mobile carrier offered an add-on service to block all ads and any code that might anonymously share your idenNty or locaNon on your phone for $9.99/month, how likely would you be to sign up? [pick one] Source: Wells Fargo Securi-es, Op-mal.com (n=1712) April 2016
RecommendaKons Test alterna-ve mone-za-on, fix broken ad system There is no easy or quick fix for publishers and adver-sers. Consumer trust has been fundamentally harmed and the ease of op-ng out of ads will only increase. Fix the broken ad ecosystem and make trade-offs clearer for users.
Our SuggesKons to Fix AdverKsing
What consumers deserve from online adver-sing, publishers and adver-sers
1 2 3 4 5
Canonical adver5ser iden5ty. Bad actors change names and pop-up again. Collaborate industry-wide
No malware, popups or adware. Create a threestrikes policy for providers who let anything through
Universal ad-server approval. Too many firms allow any code on their site. Limit and enforce standards
Restrict retargeted ads. Users get creeped out. No more than 3 pages of these ads, per ac-on/product
Three ads per page. Data shows that fewer is beuer. Enforce limits on ads per page/minute.
6 7 8 9 10
Full history of targe5ng data. See what data is being used to target any ad. Let me delete/change
Adver5ser blacklists for users. Let me block specific adver-sers from showing ads to me, easily.
Label ads properly. “From Around the Web”? Enforce labeling for sponsorship/ads consistently
Devote 10% of ad space to feedback. Have the ad gather my feedback, make visible to sites and users
Allow paid ad blocking. Anyone should be able to pay a fair amount & not be hassled for blocking ads
Copyright Op-mal.com Corp. 2016
Mobile Consumers Could Save Billions The average iPhone user could save over $7/month in excess data charges by blocking ads US iPhone users alone could save up to $8.3 billion per year on excess data charges due to web browsing In our 5-site test, blocker-users saw a total of 786 URL calls instead of 1721, there are massive privacy implicaKons Interac-ve model here: hup://op-mal.com/savings/ Copyright Op-mal.com Corp. 2016
About Us Who is Op-mal.com?
Op-mal.com is headquartered in Boulder, Colorado and San Francisco, California. We’re working to create alterna-ve ways for publishers to mone-ze great content.
OpKmal Powers New MoneKzaKon Models Op-mal’s direct consumer subscrip-ons replace publisher ad revenue for users who block ads Sites
Pay to block $5-$10/month
Improving ads Shared whitelists Fraudulent sites Site sugges-ons
... while adding social features so the best websites earn more
Users User feedback Content ra-ng Site ra-ngs
Browsers Publisher tools Ad block % tools Site +revenue by gelng user votes
Copyright Op-mal.com Corp. 2016
OpKmal.com Pays Publishers for Ad Blocking 70% of every subscrip-on goes back to publishers, and users can also “-p” publishers Upvote sites you like to increase their revenue, see if others agree
Report sites who are blocking your blocker or for other issues
Favorite up to 5 sites for an immediate boost
Monthly revenue each site gets from you is transparent
Tip sites an extra $0.01 to $1.00 if they’re doing a great job! Copyright Op-mal.com Corp. 2016
Our Contact Info How to get in touch
Op-mal.com is based in Boulder, Colorado and San Francisco, California. Address P.O. Box M Boulder CO 80306
Contact Info Rob Leathern, Founder and CEO Email:
[email protected]
Telephone Phone: +1 (720) 619-2237
We’d like to acknowledge the help of Peter Stabler and his team at Wells Fargo Securi-es, thank you for this opportunity to collaborate on an important issue!
