2014 Restaurant Industry Report FEBRUARY 2015
MAZZONE & ASSOCIATES, INC.
Table of Contents Industry Overview ..................................................................................................................... 3 Restaurant Industry Defined by M&A ..........................................................................................................3 Key Factors for Success ................................................................................................................................4 Key Drivers of External Growth ....................................................................................................................5 Mergers & Acquisitions Marketplace ..........................................................................................................7 Restaurant Industry Mature Life Cycle ........................................................................................................9
QSRs .......................................................................................................................................... 11 Current Performance ...................................................................................................................................12 QSR Segment Outlook ..................................................................................................................................14 Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................15 Cost Structure Benchmarks .........................................................................................................................18 QSR Segment Key Statistics..........................................................................................................................20
Casual Restaurants .................................................................................................................... 21 Current Performance ...................................................................................................................................22 Casual Restaurant Segment Outlook ...........................................................................................................24 Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................25 Cost Structure Benchmarks .........................................................................................................................28 Casual Restaurants Key Statistics .................................................................................................................30
MAZZONE & ASSOCIATES, INC.
Firm Overview
CONTACT US
Mazzone & Associates, Inc. is a mergers and acquisitions advisory firm serving the middle market. We provide comprehensive transactional services for middle market companies, private equity groups and individuals buying and selling companies, raising capital and structuring debt. Mazzone & Associates has experience working on more than 300 transactions valued in excess of $50 billion across a broad range of industries. We are relationship focused and appreciate that assignments are “life events” for many of our clients. Mazzone & Associates’ goal is to achieve the maximum results and value for its clients and their shareholders by executing transactions with the integrity, premium service and confidence they want, require and deserve.
OFFICE TOWER AT THE FOUR SEASONS 75 FOURTEENTH STREET, NE SUITE 2800 ATLANTA, GA 30309
MANAGING DIRECTOR & LEADING RESTAURANT INDUSTRY EXPERT DOMINIC MAZZONE (404) 574-5745
[email protected]
The sources for this industry report were IBIS World, Capital IQ, and interviews with leading industry executives.
Mazzone & Associates 2014 Restaurant Report www.globalmna.com 2
Restaurant Industry: Defined by M&A Mazzone & Associates (M&A) specializes in transactions in the Restaurant Industry. We define the Restaurant Industry as restaurants within one of two categories: QSRs: restaurants where patrons pay before Casual Restaurants: restaurants that provide eating and purchases may be consumed on‐site, casual dining services to patrons who order and taken out or delivered, which may commonly be are served while seated, i.e., waiter or waitress referred to as fast food restaurants and we refer service, and pay after eating (but specifically to as quick serve restaurants or QSRs (but excluding businesses that own only one specifically excluding coffee and snack shops); and establishment). The Restaurant Industry's business locations are distributed according to population. As a result, industry establishments are distributed according to population and income distribution, with a larger concentration in or near areas with higher household income. Since the industry provides a location‐ contingent food service to consumers, successful operators need to be located near their customer base.
QSRs
Revenue
$198.0 billion
$9.9 billion Profit Annual Growth 2009-2014
2.0%
1.4% Annual Growth 2014-2019
Businesses 150,841 $50.5 billion
Wages
Casual Restaurants $92.0
billion
Revenue
Profit $6.1 billion 2.1% Annual Growth 2014-2019
Annual Growth 2009-2014
1.6%
755 Businesses
Wages $29.8 billion Mazzone & Associates 2014 Restaurant Report www.globalmna.com 3
Key Factors for Success The key factors for success in the Restaurant Industry that M&A looks for are set forth below. Business expertise of operators: Business expertise is required as this industry has high employee turnover and inventory turns but low margins; thus, losses are easily experienced if not managed properly. Having a clear market position: Clear market positioning gives operators a competitive advantage over competitors. Effective cost controls: Cost controls are important in this low‐margin industry, particularly related to minimizing food waste. Ability to quickly adopt new technology: Adopting new employee training and kitchen and customer‐related technology can increase productivity and lower labor costs. Proximity to key markets: Being in a good location and understanding customers’ desire from a restaurant can drive customer traffic. Ability to control stock on hand: Controlling orders, stock and food waste, which are major cost areas, can improve profit. Fast adjustments made to changing regulations: Industry players must monitor changes to government regulations in areas such as food safety and handling. Otherwise they may cause illness, face fines, risk losing their operating license, or be subject to public relations disasters. In the QSR segment, the additional key factors set forth below are also important for success.
Ability to franchise operations: Franchising both in the United States and overseas is now a significant component of this industry and can provide necessary support to owners. Product is sold at high profile outlets: Having high‐profile locations for stores, with easy access, parking and drive‐through services increases convenience for customers.
In the Casual Restaurant segment, the additional key factor set forth below is important for success.
Access to multi‐skilled and flexible workforce: Access to suitably skilled and trained staff is required to meet peak customer demand periods.
“Successful Restaurant Industry executives have managed to grow their companies despite a difficult economy. They have leveraged their business expertise and are laser focused on their market position, effective cost controls and using technology to drive efficiencies.” -Dom Mazzone, Managing Director of M&A Mazzone & Associates 2014 Restaurant Report www.globalmna.com 4
Key External Drivers of Growth M&A believes that the key external drivers of the Restaurant Industry continue to slowly rebound from the Great Recession. Our analysis of those factors is set forth below.
Consumer Spending
% change
Factors that influence growth in consumer spending affect Consumer spending the industry. During a recession, any spike in 4 unemployment generally leads to declining consumption. Conversely, when spending is high, consumers will be more 3 likely to spend money on eating at restaurants. As the 2 economy fell deeper into a recession and unemployment numbers rose from 2007 through 2009, consumers 1 became more selective about how they spent their 0 disposable income. In 2009, consumer spending declined 1.9%, and luxuries like eating out were among the first ‐1 expenditures to go. Some consumers cut restaurants from ‐2 their budgets entirely and opted to save money by eating in. This trend reversed slightly from 2010 and as a result, consumer spending is expected to increase in 2015. As a result, M&A expects that more consumers will treat themselves to restaurant trips in 2015. Many of the consumers who did keep restaurants in their budget chose lower‐priced items than they would have prior to the recession. Others opted for cheaper restaurant options, like QSRs. These trends in reduced spending and substitution forced restaurants to compete with each other to convince consumers that they can get the most value at their particular restaurants. As a result, competition has intensified over the past five years, with restaurants focused on taking existing market share from each other, rather than trying to win a larger share of a growing market, as they had in years past.
Consumer Confidence Index Consumer Confidence is Strengthening 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Changes in consumer sentiment have a significant effect on household expenditure on discretionary items, including restaurant dining. During a recession, consumer demand for lower‐priced value products from restaurants increases. Over the five years through 2019, consumer confidence is expected to recover in stride with the economy and employment. Returning to work and regaining a steady income will make individuals considerably more positive about future prospects and, thus, amiable to small luxuries such as dining out.
Mazzone & Associates 2014 Restaurant Report www.globalmna.com 5
%
Healthy Eating Index Over the past five years, consumers have been more aware Healthy Eating Index of issues related to weight and obesity, nutrition, and food 71 safety than they were before. Therefore, as the healthy eating index rises, demand for some restaurants with fewer healthy options will decrease. Consequently, major 70 restaurants have expanded the number of healthy options on their menus in response. For many restaurants, the health factor has become a cornerstone of their marketing strategy 69 and has enabled them to target a new segment of the market and renew interest in their products. For example, Brinker's 68 Chili's restaurants have started offering "Guiltless Grill" options to appeal to health‐conscious customers. The healthy eating index is expected to increase slowly in 2015 as 67 consumers become increasingly aware of issues related to weight and obesity, fatty‐food intake and food safety issues. This factor particularly affects the often meaty and greasy fast food industry. Despite any long‐term aggregate declines in healthy eating, consumers are now more aware of the health issues associated with fatty foods and are increasingly going out of their way to avoid them, which is a potential threat for the industry. However, in another few years, this trend is expected to start declining. Households Earning More Than $100,000 Casual Restaurants typically draw their customers from higher‐income households, while QSRs do not. Because of this factor, growth in the number of households with incomes of more than $100,000 benefits Casual Restaurants and slows QSRs (and vice versa). The number of households earning more than $100,000 a year is expected to increase during 2015, so this factor favors growth in Casual Restaurants but is expected to negatively affect QSRs.
Agricultural Price Index The agricultural price index represents nominal prices received by farmers for all U.S. agricultural products (both livestock and crops) and is also a strong indicator of the prices restaurants can expect to pay for the ingredients that go into preparing meals. When the price of meal ingredients increases, it typically results in lower profit margins because operators generally cannot pass on the entire cost to consumers. The agricultural price index is expected to decline during 2015.
Mazzone & Associates 2014 Restaurant Report www.globalmna.com 6
Mergers & Acquisitions Marketplace Unlike the capital markets as a whole, mergers and acquisitions in the Restaurant Industry experienced little growth throughout 2014. However, the transactions that have closed have been characterized with premium values. We believe that the relatively flat activity in 2014 is mostly explained by the lack of growth and the maturity of the Industry. On the positive side, based on our deal pipeline and knowledge of the Restaurant Industry, we believe that 2015 will see an increase in the volume of transactions. We have seen a steady increase in volume from financial buyers since the First Quarter as the private equity groups whose funds are holding restaurant businesses are starting to mature and, in many cases, reach certain required exit timelines. During 2014, both strategic and financial buyers paid considerably higher premiums for transactions compared to prior years. The obvious outlier was Burger King’s $13.4 billion acquisition of Tim Hortons in December 2014, which represented almost 75% of the reported values for the year. Although both strategic and financial buyers have decreased the number of transactions closed in the Restaurant Industry, financial activity increased in 2014. The increase in spending is partly a result of the modest increase in large deals. Transactions in excess of $100 million were constant in 2013 and 2014, with an increase in transactions above $1 billion closed as of the Fourth Quarter. Although there has been an overall increase in the volume of large transaction sizes, transactions less than $10 million have decreased considerably in 2014. We believe that the increase in consumer confidence serves to attract buyers to larger and more profitable brands rather than smaller deals. Nonetheless, transaction comps are currently at post‐recession highs within the space. The median EV/EBITDA through the Fourth Quarter of 2014 is 8.8x and EV/Revenue is 1.0x. These premiums are likely slowing down the number of transactions as value buys in the space are still considered scarce. Turning to the public equity markets, the Restaurant Industry is also experiencing above average performance. As of the Fourth Quarter of 2014, EV/EBITDA trading multiples were at 11.4x. While 2013 saw the lowest number of IPOs since 2010, recent offerings and announcements are captivating investors’ attention. Most of these opportunities are in the sector of Fast‐Casual Restaurants, which has seen the fastest growth in the Restaurant Industry since 2006. The boost in the number of restaurants going public can be attributed to historically high valuations which are prompting owners to sell while demand is on the rise. Based on 2014’s successful Fast‐Casual Restaurant IPOs and increase in restaurant stock prices, 2015 is predicted to bring more opportunities for investors in the Restaurant Industry. Behind the increase in transaction and trading multiples in this Restaurant Industry is a resurgence in the overall spending of consumers. The consumer confidence index has increased over the last few years and can reasonably be expected to remain high as a result of declining unemployment and increasing per capita income. With improving economic conditions, this industry is likely to attract additional buyers. An increase in demand paired with strong multiples should entice owners to consider selling, thus providing a positive outlook for activity in 2015. Mazzone & Associates 2014 Restaurant Report www.globalmna.com 7
$20
250
$15
200 150
$10
100
$5
50
$‐
‐
Reported
Unreported
Number of Transactions
Billions
Mergers & Acquisitions Activity
Reported Value
Although transaction volume is relatively flat, reported value is significantly greater indicating larger deals have characterized 2014.
20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 ‐
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 ‐ 2010
2011
2012
2013
Number of Transactions
Billions
Financial & Strategic Activity
2014
Strategic Reported Value
Financial Reported Value
Strategic Deals
Financial Deals
Although dwarfed by the $13 billion Tim Horton's acquisition by Burger King, Financial buyers have also returned to the Restaurant space with significant investments in 2014. Comparable Median Transaction Multiples EV/EBITDA EV/Revenue
2010 8.3x 0.6x
2011 7.7x 0.7x
2012 8.0x 0.8x
2013 8.1x 0.7x
2014 8.8x 1.0x
Public Company Median Trading Multiples EV/EBITDA EV/Revenue
2010 6.3x 0.5x
2011 6.2x 0.5x
2012 7.8x 0.7x
2013 10.7x 1.1x
2014 11.4x 1.3x
Mazzone & Associates 2014 Restaurant Report www.globalmna.com 8
% of Deals Closed
Deal Volume by Transaction Size 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005
2006