2012 Midtown Atlanta Trade Area Analysis

INTRODUCTION This report defines and analyzes the primary and secondary trade areas for Midtown Atlanta. Throughout the U.S., people are eager for urban experiences—they wish to shop and dine in authentic places that are distinct from more conventional, often contrived, options available in suburban areas. Though they will not wholly abandon other offerings, many area consumers will shift a number of their shopping and dining trips to a downtown setting if it provides a compelling and unique mix of shops and restaurants. As it draws in people from the larger trade area, an urban place simultaneously serves its immediate residents, workers and visitors. This report includes the following: 1.

Primary + Secondary Trade Areas

p. 2-3

2.

Primary Trade Area: Psychographics & Primary Target Market

pp. 4-5

3.

Secondary Trade Area: Psychographics & Secondary Target Market

p. 6

4.

Conclusion

p. 7

Supporting Documents

downtown works 1

1. Primary + Secondary Trade Areas The map below shows the total trade area for Midtown Atlanta. The green-shaded portion indicates the primary trade area, while the blue indicates the secondary trade area. In total the trade area’s population today is 1,674,563; it is comprised of those living within a reasonable distance of Midtown and includes groups of residents inclined to patronize trendy, upscale shops and restaurants in an urban setting. By 2016 the population is expected to increase by 85,000 people, or just over 5%. Areas with growing populations are of Midtown Atlanta Trade Area interest to independent and national retailers. While they still like to see strong co-tenancies and sales numbers, the PRIMARY trade area growing population is a data point they’ll consider when making location decisions. Secondary trade area

Population TOTAL trade area

PRIMARY trade area

SECONDARY trade area

2011 2016 Forecast

1,674,563 1,759,060

200,455 215,095

1,474,108 1,543,965

2011-2016 Increase

5%

7.3%

4.7%

Average Household Income PRIMARY trade area

SECONDARY trade area

2011 2016 Forecast

$77,267 $92,477

$77,059 $90,550

2011-2016 Increase

19.7%

17.5%

Midtown

Midtown Atlanta Total Trade Area Pop. = 1.67 mil

(2011 US Average HH Income = $69,677)

Source: ESRI Business Solutions; 2010 US Census; Downtown Works

downtown works 2

Key trade area statistics:

Households by Income PRIMARY trade area

2011 $50-$74.9k $75-$99.9k $100-$149.9k $150-$199.9k $200k +

14.9% 9.3% 10.4% 5.6% 10.1%

2016 forecast

2011

2016 forecast 18.4% 15.5% 15.3% 7.3% 7.7%

18.2% 11.6% 12.7% 5.8% 7.0%

15.3% 13.0% 13.4% 6.9% 10.7%

Age Distribution PRIMARY trade area Age 20-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54

12.7% 23.0% 15.3% 12.1%

SECONDARY trade area

2016 forecast 12.5% 23.8% 14.7% 11.0%

The total trade area population is increasing—growth of 5%, or 85,000 people, is forecast for 2016.



Nearly all primary trade area residents are within a 10minute drive. Most secondary trade area residents are within a 20-minute drive, while nearly all are within 30.



Primary trade area residents are youthful—today, 51% are between the ages of 20 and 44.



12.1% of those in the primary and 13.9% of those in the secondary trade area are between the ages of 45 and 54, peak earning years.



More than 35% of all households in the primary trade area and 37% in the secondary annually earn $75,000 and up (this is higher than the US average household income of $69,677). By 2016 close to half of all total trade area households will be earning $75,000+.



Nearly 15% of primary and just over 18% of secondary trade area residents annually earn between $50,000 and $75,000. While not top earners, many of these people fall into groups that spend nearly all their discretionary income on themselves. (more on this in the section on psychographics)

SECONDARY trade area

Today, more than 35% of all households in the primary trade area and 37% in the secondary annually earn $75,000 and up.

2011



2011

2016 forecast

7.0% 17.1% 15.5% 13.9%

6.7% 17.4% 14.9% 12.7%

Today, more than 63% of primary and 53.5% of secondary trade area residents are between the ages of 20 and 54.

Source: ESRI Business Solutions; 2010 US Census; Downtown Works

downtown works 3

3. Primary Trade Area: Psychographics & Primary Target Market Demographic statistics cross-tabulated with information on lifestyles, attitudes and behaviors lead to psychographic profiles of a population. These profiles consider:

Midtown Atlanta Primary Target Market (PTM) (as percent of PRIMARY TRADE AREA households)

‣ Occupation and education level

MIDTOWN PTM

U.S.

Metro Renters

46.3%

1.6%

Laptops & Lattes

12.2%

1.0%

Top Rung

4.6%

0.9%

Enterprising Professionals

3.6%

1.9%

Urban Chic

3.3%

1.4%

Trendsetters

3.0%

1.2%

Connoisseurs

2.8%

1.3%

Dorms to Diplomas

0.6%

0.5%

‣ Preferred activities and spending habits ‣ Stage of life

For this analysis, we define our primary target market psychographically. As shown at right, Midtown’s psychographic primary target market (PTM) groups make up just over 76% of primary trade area households; their members include those inclined to shop and dine in an urban setting if the right product—a critical mass of distinct, quality operators—is offered. The bulk of the PTM is comprised of young people who are active, electronically savvy and strive to be cool. They are not necessarily affluent yet have disposable income which they spend on the latest in electronics, apparel, activewear, meals out, movies and concerts and, in some cases, home furnishings. Metro Renters make up nearly half—46.3%—of the PTM (by comparison, just 8.2% of Nashville’s PTM falls into this group). Because Metro Renters aren’t yet homeowners, they don’t spend their money on investment-grade furniture (though they do shop at places like CB2). Nonetheless, they are avid shoppers and diners—they spend nearly all their discretionary income on themselves.

• • • • • • • •

Two PTM groups—Top Rung and Connoisseurs—are the top two most affluent of all ESRI’s 65 consumer groups. These two groups comprise 7.4% of the PTM. They buy high-quality clothing and home goods, and frequent top restaurants. Urban Chic, and Trendsetters combined represent 6.6% of the target market. Members of these groups are affluent and likely to spend their money. As a result, a case can be made for some trendy, upscale operations touting higher price points. Categories would include full-service restaurants, fashion apparel and accessories (shoes, jewelry), home furnishings and gifts. Descriptions of each of the eight groups that comprise Midtown’s PTM are included on the following pages. Source: ESRI Business Solutions; 2010 US Census; Downtown Works

downtown works 4

target market =

76% of primary trade area households (vs. 10% in U.S.)

Midtown Atlanta—Primary Target Market Groups Metro Renters 46.3% • Young, educated singles starting their careers • 1 in 4 holds graduate degrees (is one of the most highly-educated segments) • Need to be where the action is and are avid shoppers/diners • Because they rent, home products are not a priority, though they will buy furniture from stores such as CB2 or Pier One Imports • Shop at traditional stores, independents and online • Work out regularly and are active in sports • Own electronics, laptops; seldom watch TV • Spend most of their discretionary income on themselves

Urban Chic 3.3% • Professionals who live stylishly and are well-educated • Focus on both quality and style • Stay fit, eat organic and drink imported • Dine out all the time yet have well equipped kitchens • Shop in upscale stores • Active consumers who emphasize organic-sustainable goods/ services + craftsmanship/artisanship; favor local operators over chains • One of the top groups to own Apple products Trendsetters 3.0% • Young, diverse and mobile • Educated professionals who have substantive jobs • Spenders who love to shop in stores • Fashion conscious and stay current on trends • Other groups follow them!

Laptops and Lattes 12.2% • Live urban lifestyles (30% do not own cars) • Highly educated, more than 70% have bachelors or graduate degrees • Are well read and well traveled • They eat out frequently, shop Target for necessities, and buy luxuries at high end department stores and home stores • One of top markets to own iPod, laptop or notebook • Exercise and eat healthy foods

Connoisseurs 2.8% • Somewhat older • Are third in affluence to Top Rung • Neighborhoods are usually slow growing, established, affluent areas in densely populated city centers • Eat out several times a week (occasionally cook at home for fun) • Have the latest in gadgetry and like labels • Buy the latest sports apparel to look good

Top Rung 4.6% • Mature, married, highly educated and wealthy • Is the wealthiest consumer market • Shoppers—they buy the “best of the best” • Frequently upgrade their electronics

Dorms to Diplomas 0.6% • College students • Participate in a variety of sports and work out at gyms • They attend concerts, go dancing and to the movies • Buy laptops, cell phones, iPods, and digital cameras • Shop at discount stores and brands such as Old Navy • Eat at fast food establishments • Watch VH1 and MTV

Enterprising Professionals 3.6% • Young, educated professionals who move frequently to climb the ladder • Enjoy growing consumer clout • 46% of this group lives in the South • They eat out at Chili’s and Cheesecake Factory • They shop for groceries at Publix and Albertsons downtown works 5

3. Secondary Trade Area: Psychographics & Secondary Target Market As shown at right, Midtown’s psychographic secondary target market (STM) groups make up 40% of secondary trade area households. The STM has five groups—Enterprising Professionals, Metro Renters, Urban Chic, Connoisseurs, Laptops & Lattes—in common with the PTM. The remaining three groups in the STM are described below. Young and Restless 10.2% • Change is constant for this group who lead busy lives • The median age is 28.6 • Diverse and highly educated, very interested in their careers • Renters with few children • Incomes are not high but much of it is disposable • Tech savvy; they go online for most everything • Enjoy bars and nightlife

Midtown Atlanta Secondary Target Market (STM) (as percent of SECONDARY TRADE AREA households)

• • • • • • • •

Metropolitans 5.6% • Live in older city neighborhoods • More than 75% over the age of 25 have attended college • Median age is 37.6; just 40% are married • Live in single family homes and in multi-unit buildings • Active, urbane lifestyle • Up on women’s fashion • Practice yoga • Prefer Apple products

MIDTOWN STM

U.S.

Young & Restless

10.2%

1.5%

Enterprising Professionals

10.1%

1.9%

Metro Renters

6.2%

1.6%

Metropolitans

5.6%

1.4%

In Style

2.9%

2.3%

Urban Chic

1.9%

1.4%

Connoisseurs

1.6%

1.3%

Laptops & Lattes

1.4%

1.0%

target market =

In Style 2.9% • Affluent, well educated suburbanites who gravitate to urban experiences • Make frequent trips to downtown to access cool restaurants and shops, visit museums or go to concerts • Candidates for downtown lofts or condos when their kids leave the nest • Are into fitness • Are label-conscious and respond to trends Source: ESRI Business Solutions; 2010 US Census; Downtown Works

downtown works 6

40% of secondary trade area households (vs. 12% in U.S.)

4. Conclusion Both the primary and secondary trade areas contain an abundance of well-educated, active, urban inclined people, and the bulk of the adult population is between the ages of 20 and 55. The makeup of the total trade area is good for urban retail. •

The target market groups are well educated, well read and well traveled.



Many of those in the target market groups will harbor a sensitivity to price. And while they value local retailers, they also like to trade with brands they know.



Entertainment is important to all of the target groups. Much of this is connected to the sophisticated electronic devices they buy and upgrade with frequency.



Nearly all those in the target groups enjoy dining out often, for the most part at trendy restaurants.



The target groups are made up of people who are active (play sports), fit and health conscious.



A good portion of those in the target groups are fairly mobile, and less likely to purchase investment grade home furnishings.



For many of those in the target groups, disposable income is spent on maintaining the lifestyle of “it’s about me.” They are not terribly interested in what others think.



Those in the target market groups have few children.

The psychographics of the primary and secondary target markets should weigh heavily on the merchandise mix and tenant decisions made by landlords. Shops and restaurants that appeal to the target markets will also draw in other “follower” trade area consumers, albeit less frequently.

downtown works 7

Supporting Documents

downtown works 8

Trends 2011-2016

Annual Rate (in percent)

4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 Area State USA

1 0.5 0

Population

Households

Families

Owner HHs

Median HH Income

Population by Age 22 20 18

Percent

16 14 12 10 8 6

2011 2016

4 2 0

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

2011 Household Income $25K - $34K 9.7%

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-74

75-84

85+

2011 Population by Race $15K - $24K 10.9%

60 55 50