2010 – outlook and challenges Danske Markets seminar 11. marts 2010
Lasse Nyby, CEO
Status coming into 2010
2009: Acceptable result achieved under challenging conditions ¾ Core income up 34 per cent ¾ Expansion of interest-margin ¾ Benign market-conditions for mortgage bonds
¾ Cost growth of 17 per cent ¾ Underlying cost growth of 6 per cent - unsatisfactory
¾ Core earnings before impairment above DKK 1bn. – first time ¾ Impairment of loans etc. of DKK 584m. – impairment percentage of 1.22 ¾ Contribution to ”Bank Package I”, incl. sector losses, of DKK 291m. Growth in business volume DDKm Core income Costs Core earnings before impairment Impairments of loans and advances, etc. Core earnings Investment income Totalkredit Profit/loss on ordinary activities Sector Fund Profit before tax
2009 2.624 1.621 1.003 584 419 17 0 436 -291 145
2008 1.957 1.380 577 236 341 -229 93 205 -81 124
Indeks 134 117 174 248 123 213 117
Pct.
30
24
21
13
15 -8
-10 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
3
Impairment of loans at high level – as expected ¾ Impairment percentage: 1.22 ¾ Impairment percentage by segment:
Impairment and impairment in pct.
DKKm 700
0,49
¾ Corporate: 1.4 (DKK 488m.) ¾ Agriculture: 2.5 (DKK 141m.) ¾ Household: 0.6 (DKK 96m.)
584
¾ 2/3 of impairments contribute to buffering up for future losses
236 0
-1,50 2008
Impairment of loans, advances and guarantee debtors Y/Y: 81 pct.
1.250
Impairment in % of loans, adv. and guarantees
Non-performing loans
20
23
583
666
767
850
969 1,2
0
1,5
1,9
2,2
2,5
1Q 09
2Q 09
3Q 09
4Q 09
103 48
0,0 4Q 08
DKKm
103
Pct.
DKKm
79
Cover-ratio
Y/Y: 115 pct.
125
3,0
2009
130 34
Pct.
1,22
65
76
57
1Q 09
2Q 09
3Q 09
4Q 09
11
11
1Q 09
2Q 09
11
0
0 4Q 08
17 13
4Q 08
1Q 09
2Q 09
3Q 09
4Q 09
4Q 08
3Q 09
4Q 09
Sector fund Spar Nord ex. sector fund
4
Solvency strengthened – 14.2 per cent ¾ Individual solvency requirement: 8.5 per cent (7.8 per cent at end-2008) ¾ Hike in requirement attributable to sharper assessment principles
2006 8,8 0,9 9,7 3,0 -1,9 10,8
Pct. of RWA Core capital Hybrid capital Core capital ratio Subordinated debt Deductions Solvency ratio
2007 8,6 0,8 9,4 3,4 -1,7 11,1
2008 8,9 0,8 9,7 3,1 -1,5 11,3
2009 9,3 3,9 13,2 2,6 -1,7 14,2
¾ Excess coverage of DKK 2.4bn. 3,5 mia. kr.
¾ Core capital after deduction 5,9 mia. kr.
¾ Core capital percentage excl. hybrid: 8 per cent. ¾ Core capital incl. hybrid: 12 per cent
Subordinated loan capital per year (Maturity)
20
13,2
Pct.
¾ Strategic goals
Core capital ratio
1.500
9,7 0,9
9,4 0,8
9,7 0,8
3,9
8,8
8,6
8,9
9,3
DKKm
¾ Capital requirement
1.265
594 249
0
350
200
0
2006
2007
Core capital Kernekapital
2008
2009
Hybrid capital Hybridkapital
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Subordinated loan capital
Hybrid capital
5
Strong strategic liquidity ¾ Excess coverage relative to strategic liquidity target stands at DKK 7.4bn. ¾ Further improvement mainly due to decline in lending of DKK 6.7bn. ¾ Bonds issues of DKK 5.0bn. – in the same period senior loans and bonds worth DKK 4.0bn have been redeemed
Senior loans maturity
DKKm
2007 27,4 2,2 6,4 5,9 41,9 40,9
2008 33,8 3,4 6,0 5,7 49,0 45,4
2009 31,9 6,5 4,0 6,8 49,2 38,3
-0,4 -2,9
-1,0 0,0
-4,2 -0,6
-3,5 7,4
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4
5.209 3.204
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
1.940
0 2011
2006 22,7 0,0 4,0 5,1 31,8 34,3
Strategic target
DKKb
6.000
2010
DKKb Cash deposits Issued Bonds Senior loans Core capital and sub. capital Stable long term funding Loans and advances Senior funding and sub. loan capital0)
2012
19
22
20
2013
2014
2015
2007
2008
2009
6
Expectations for 2010 ¾ Small decline in NII ¾ Stabile margin and positive loan growth ¾ Hike in interest expenses relating to hybrid core capital and issued bonds ¾ Declining interest income from bonds portfolio ¾ Net income from fees and commissions expected to grow ¾ Activity in capital-market related areas expected to rise ¾ Market-value adjustments still expected to be at satisfactory level ¾ Difficult to top 2009, though... ¾ Focus on costs and efficiency ¾ Cost growth of 0 - next two years ¾ Core earnings before impairment expected in the range DKK 800-1,000m. ¾ Impairment ratio is expected to be in the range 1.00-1.25 ¾ Still primarily attributable to business customers in general and customers in agriculture in particular ¾ Expenses relating to guarantee commission to the Danish Banking Sector Emergency Fund is expected to amount to DKK 135m. To this must be added further losses on sector targeted solutions
7
3 important issues for 2010…
Costs ¾ The 0s was a decade of great growth for Spar Nord – coming into the 10s the vision of nationwide presence is within reach ¾ Through the years of growth our costs have grown too much ¾ Hence, it’s time for a strategy adjustment: From sow to harvest ¾ Goal: Zero cost growth in 2010 and 2011 100 positions to be cut Reduction of the number of parallel development projects A new and responsible cost culture Income/Cost ratio Ringkjøbing Landbobank Jyske Bank Amagerbanken Sydbank Vestjysk Bank Nordjyske Bank Spar Nord Bank Sparbank Forstædernes Bank
2006 2,92 (1) 1,51 (9) 1,87 (3) 1,78 (4) 1,90 (2) 1,68 (5) 1,58 (7) 1,56 (8) 1,66 (6)
2007 2,97 (1) 1,81 (4) 2,09 (2) 1,83 (3) 1,79 (5) 1,74 (7) 1,55 (8) 1,48 (9) 1,76 (6)
2008 3,08 (1) 1,66 (6) 2,06 (2) 1,70 (5) 1,61 (7) 1,72 (4) 1,42 (8) 1,41 (9) 1,75 (3)
2009 3,16 (1) 1,95 (2) 1,94 (3) 1,86 (4) 1,78 (5) 1,72 (6) 1,62 (7) 1,45 (8) 1,27 (9)
17-03-2010
9
Impairment of loans ¾ Improvement of business climate comes slowly and gradually → continued high losses and impairments ¾ Challenges for many businesses – not least for the agricultural sector ¾ Household customers are not a concern
The group's loans, advances and guarantees shown by line of business
Line of Business Pct.
Banking Sector 2008
Spar Nord Bank
2008
2009
Impairment in % of loans, advances and guarantees 2009
Public sector
2,3
1,6
1,4
0,0
Agriculture, forestry etc.
3,5
11,0
12,7
2,8
Fishing
0,2
0,2
0,5
2,3
Manufact. raw materiel, power-, gas-, water- etc.
9,1
6,2
6,5
3,3
Construction and civil engineering
3,2
4,2
4,4
2,2
Trade-, restaurant- and hotel business
6,0
8,5
8,3
3,5
3,6
5,7
6,4
2,5
Credit, financing and insurance
29,0
11,4
6,0
1,6
Property management, sales and renting
13,9
12,0
12,3
1,3
Other corporate customers
4,4
5,2
4,8
2,6
Corporate customers, total
72,9
64,4
61,9
2,4
Personal customers, total
24,8
34,0
36,7
1,1
100,0
100,0
100,0
1,9
Transport-, mail- and phone
Total Impairment in % of loans, advances and guarantees (Incl. Groups of impairment losses)
2,2
Agriculture – light at the end of the tunnel? 500
¾ Group exposure to agriculture DKK 4.0bn.
¾ Leasing
DKK 1.7bn.
166 0
¾ Credit quality is sound ¾ Balanced in terms of lines of production ¾ Generally cautious approach ¾ Crisis hasn’t really hit the leasing business ¾ Positive results expected in 2010
1.000 DKK
¾ Bank
-500
-782
-1.000 -1.500
-1.608
-2.000 2008
Crop producers Ave. profit per farm
2010
500
-41 -239
-250
333
250
64 1.000 DKK
1.000 DKK
2009 Cattle producers Ave. profit per farm
250
0
Pork producers Ave. profit per farm
0 -48 -250
-500
-326
-500 2008
2009
2010
2008 2009 2010 Source: Fødevareøkonomisk Institut, Købehavns Universitet (Januar 2010)
11
Converting geographic growth into business growth ¾ Great investment in distribution power from 2002 to 2009 ¾ Revision of strategy in 2010: From sow to harvest ¾ Still huge market potential in new areas ¾ Strong capital base and liquidity
spar nord
Jebjerg
Spar Nord local banks Geographical break down
spar nord
Skive spar nord
Core earnings before impairm. (DKKm) 2009
709
61
22
-110
2008
618
15
6
-77
Randers
Silkeborg spar nord Århus Århus Herning Ikast
Århus
Established Established before 2002 2002- Roskilde Central
spar nord
spar nord
spar nord
spar nord
spar nord
spar no
Hel Hillerød spar nord
spar nord
spar nord
København
Horsens Vejle spar nord Fredericia spar nord spar nord Middelfart spar nord Kolding Odense spar nord
spar nord
Esbjerg
spar nord
Nyborg spar nord
Svendborg
spar nord
spar no Holbæk spar nord Køb Roskilde spar nord Slagelse spar nord Køge spar nord
Næstved
30/9 2010…
We’re not worried ¾ Strong image – Spar Nord is among the winners ¾ Strong strategic liquidity ¾ Favorable distribution of deposits ¾ International rating ¾ Possibility to issue bonds with state-backed guarantee
Deposits and other payables (DKKb) 2009 On demand 21,1 Subject to notice 4,1 Time deposits 3,2 Special types of deposits 3,5 Total 31,9
2008 21,4 2,7 6,7 3,1 33,8
” Spar Nord Bank is strongly positioned for the expiration of Bank Package I. In this bank there no need for panic – even without an unlimited state guarantee. (Penge & Privatøkonomi 01.10)
30/9 in a sector perspective ¾ Trend toward a more ”natural” link between deposit structure and business model (customer profile) ¾ Still possible to issue bonds with government-backed guarantee ¾ Improved market-conditions for non-guaranteed issues ¾ We’re not headed for a sector-wide disaster – but some banks may experience major challenges
Challenges in the horizon…
Regulation
Surplus capacity – low demand for financing
Skibe uden fragt – for anker uden for Singapore
Ill.: Sindal – a small town in Northern Jutland
Loan losses
Key messages ¾ Spar Nord is strongly positioned to face future challenges ¾ Image hasn’t suffered ¾ Well diversified high quality loan book (agriculture the only concern) ¾ Investment in distribution power – also during the crisis ¾ Strong liquidity