TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.
US Milk Market Introduction 1.1. US Cow Milk Market Production and Fluid Milk Consumption by Volume, 20072015 1.2.
2.
US Milk Cow Numbers and Milk Production per Cow, 2007-2015
US Dairy Products Market Introduction 2.1.
US Dairy Products Market Production by Volume, 2007-2015
2.1.1.
Butter
2.1.2.
Cheese
2.1.3.
Skim Milk Powder
2.1.4.
Milk Drinks and Fermented Products
2.1.5.
Cream
2.1.6.
Condensed Milk
2.1.7.
Whey Powder
2.2.
US Dairy Product Market Consumption by Volume, 2007-2015
2.2.1.
Butter
2.2.2.
Cheese
2.2.3.
Skimmed Milk Powder
2.3.
US Dairy Product Market Net Trade by Volume, 2007-2015
2.3.1.
Butter
2.3.2.
Cheese
2.3.3.
Skimmed Milk Powder
3.
Trends and Developments in US Milk and Dairy Products Market
4.
US Milk and Dairy Products Market Future Outlook
5.
Competitive Landscape
6.
Macro Economic Indicators: Current and Projections 6.1.
Population, 2007-2015 2
7.
6.2.
GDP, 2007-2015
6.3.
Inflation, 2007-2015
6.4.
Unemployment Rate as a % of Labour Force, 2007-2015
6.5.
Demographic Distribution of Population on the basis of Age, 2009-2015
6.6.
Personal Disposable Income and Number of Households in the US, 2009-2015
6.7.
Distribution of Income among Households, 2009-2015
Appendix 7.1.
Market Definition
7.2.
Abbreviations
7.3.
Research Methodology Data Collection Methods Approach Reasons for the Dependent and Independent Variables
7.4.
Disclaimer
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: US Cow Milk Production and Fluid Milk Consumption along with Manufacturing Use and Exports by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015 Figure 2: US Milk Cow Numbers in Thousand Head and Milk Production per Cow in Kilograms, 2007-2015 Figure 3: US Total Dairy Products Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 20072015 Figure 4: US Butter Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015 Figure 5: US Cheese Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015 Figure 6: US Cheese Production by Type in Percentage, 2009 Figure 7: US Skim Milk Powder Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 20072015 Figure 8: US Milk Drinks and Fermented Products Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015 Figure 9: US Cream Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015 Figure 10: US Condensed Milk Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 20072015 Figure 11: US Whey Powder Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015 Figure 12: US Butter Market Consumption by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015 Figure 13: US Cheese Market Consumption by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015 Figure 14: US Skimmed Milk Powder Market Consumption by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015 Figure 15: US Butter Market Net Trade by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015 Figure 16: US Cheese Market Net Trade by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015 Figure 17: US Skimmed Milk Powder Market Net Trade by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015 Figure 18: US Population Trend in Million, 2007-2015 Figure 19: US Gross Domestic Product in USD Billion, 2007-2015 Figure 20: US Inflation, Average Consumer Prices in Percentage, 2007-2015 Figure 21: US Unemployment Rate as a Percentage of Labour Force, 2007-2015 4
LIST OF TABLES Table 1: US Cow Milk Production and Fluid Milk Consumption along with Manufacturing Use and Exports by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 2007-2015 Table 2: US Milk Cow Numbers in Thousand Head and Milk Production per Cow in Kilograms, 2007-2015 Table 3: US Total Dairy Products Market Production by Volume in Thousand Tonnes, 20072015 Table 4: Trend in Dairy Farm Numbers Based upon Farm Size Table 5: Evolving Distribution of Milk Production by Herd Size Table 6: Competitive Landscape of Major Diary Products Companies (Kraft Foods, Dean Foods, DFA, Land O’ Lakes and Schreiber) in the US Table 7: Demographic Distribution of Population in the US on the basis of Age, in Million, 2009-2015 Table 8: Personal Disposable Income in USD Million and Number of Households in Thousands in the US, 2009-2015 Table 9: Income Distribution among Households in thousands in the US, 2009-2015
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THE US MILK MARKET INTRODUCTION The US milk industry is 6th largest in the world in terms of cow milk production and represents more than 10% of the total milk production in the world in 2010. The milk prices though recovered in 2010 is expected to remain volatile in the years ahead. Milk is used in producing variety of other milk products such as butter, cheese, skim powder, condensed milk, whey powder and many others. In the future as well the market is expected to grow and will reach ~ thousand tonnes in 2015. Milk Market Size ('000s Tonnes)
100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000
Cow Milk Production
Fluid Milk Consumption
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
0
Manufacturing Use and Exports
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12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
9,000
2007
Dairy Product Market Size ('000s Tonnes)
THE US DAIRY PRODUCTS MARKET PRODUCTION BY VOLUME, 2007-2015
Total Dairy Products Market Production
BUTTER
Most of the butter production in the US comes from two regions. The west region includes California and Washington and constituted 49.4% of the total butter production in 2009. The central region which constitutes of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Texas contributed with the rest of the production. In 2009, the lower milk prices affected the business of the dairy producers. Along with the decrease in the milk production, the butter production was also affected. Another reason for the decline in the butter production is the competition in the market. Peanut butter which is obtained from peanuts and margarine butter from margaric acid are two substitutes do not use milk for production. These substitutes have raised the competition for butter which is obtained directly from milk. These two substitutes are preferred by consumers because of their low fat content.
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CHEESE
In 2009, with a share of almost 25% of the total cheese production in the US, Wisconsin was the largest cheese producing state followed by California. Other prominent states included Idaho, New York and Minnesota. Together all the five states contributed nearly 70% of the total cheese production in 2009.
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Production ('000s Tonnes)
5,100 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700 4,600 4,500 4,400 4,300 4,200 4,100
Cheese Production
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Figure: The US Cheese Production by Type in Percentage, 2009 2009 Mozzarella Cheddar Other American Other Italian Cream/ Neufchatel Swiss Cheese Hispanic Other
CONDENSED MILK
The production of condensed milk has shown a stable increase in the historical period, even though the production was affected because of the recession in 2009, still the segment managed to register a positive growth of 4.2% during the period from 2007-2009. In terms of volume, the production increased from 283 thousand tonnes in 2007 to 307 thousand tonnes in 2009. The market is expected to register a growth of 0.9% from 2009-2015 and the volume will reach ~ thousand tonnes in 2015.
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320 310 300 290 280 270
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
260
2007
Production ('000s Tonnes)
330
Condensed Milk Production
SKIMMED MILK POWDER
700 600 500 400 300 200 100
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
2007
Consumption ('000s Tonnes)
The US skim milk powder has seen major boost in production in the wake of increased demand for this dairy product in the international market. The consumption level on the other hand, has witnessed stable incline in the past due to several macro economic factors such as population growth and increased median household income playing a subdued role in the market.
Skim Milk Powder Consumption
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Table: Trend in Dairy Farm Numbers Based upon Farm Size in the US Number of Farms by Herd Size
1-49 head
50-99 head
100-499 head
500-999 head
1,000+ head
Total
2005
37,325
23,185
14,717
1,700
1,373
78,300
2006
35,305
22,115
14,327
1,700
1,433
74,880
2007
33,975
19,330
13,370
1,720
1,600
69,995
2008
33,200
17,800
12,650
1,720
1,630
67,000
2009
31,900
17,300
12,450
1,700
1,650
65,000
-15%
-25%
-15%
0%
20%
-17%
Change 2005-2009
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The below mentioned table analyzes the cause and effect relationship between several industry factors and milk and dairy products market providing the basis for future projections: Industry Factors
Market Impact
Milk and Dairy Products - an integral part of the dietary system
Positive;
Increase in Competition due to substitutes
Negative;
Technological Advancement in the processing process Changing preference towards more health conscious dairy products
Rise in International Trade of Dairy Products to the developing countries Fluctuating Milk and Dairy Product Prices
Positive;
Negative; Positive;
Positive;
Negative;
Comments
Cause:
Effect:
Cause:
Effect:
Cause:
Effect:
Cause:
Negative Effect:
Positive Effect:
Cause:
Positive Effect:
Cause:
Effect:
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