RESARCH IN INTERESTS 1. Open-economy Macroeconomics 2. Money, Banking & Financial Markets 3. Commodity Markets & Agribusiness 4. Applied Econometrics

PUBLICATIONS Journal Articles 1.

Jumah, A. and Pastuszyn, G. (2008) Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Aggregate Demand in Ghana, World Development, forthcoming.

2.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (2008) Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation from Bivariate Time-Series Models: Can Threshold Cointegration Models Beat Linear Structures? Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.

3.

Crespo-Cuaresma, J., Jumah, A. and Karbuz, S. (2008) Modelling and Forecasting Oil Prices: The Role of Asymmetric Cycles, Energy Journal, forthcoming.

4.

Jumah, A., Quayson, E.T., Johnson, P.N.T., Tortoe, C., Oduro-Yeboah, C. (2008) Market Testing of A Major Cassava Flour Product in the Accra Metropolitan Area, International Journal of Consumer Studies 32:687-691.

5.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (2008) Seasonal Prediction of European Cereal Prices: Good Forecasts Using Bad Models? Journal of Forecasting 27:391-406.

6.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (2008) Modeling Macroeconomic Sub-Aggregates: An Application of Non-Linear Error Correction, Macroeconomic Dynamics 12:151-171.

7.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (2008) Immigrant Remittance Flows and Aggregate Demand Forecasts in the West African Economies, Journal of Policy Modelling 30:377-380.

8.

Jumah, A. Dipeolu, A.O., Ayinde, I.O., Adebayo, K. (2008) An LA-AIDS Analysis of Cassava Food Products Demand in Lagos, Journal of Developing Areas 41:109-117.

9.

Jumah, A. (2004) The Long Run, Market Power and Retail Pricing, Empirical Economics 29:605-620.

10.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (2001) The Effects of Dollar/Sterling Exchange Rate Volatility on Futures Markets for Coffee and Cocoa, European Review of Agricultural Economics 28:307328.

11.

Jumah, A., Karbuz, S. and Rünstler G. (1999) Interest Rate Differentials, Market Integration and the Efficiency of Commodity Futures Markets, Applied Financial Economics 9:101-108.

12.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (1996) Forecasting Seasonally Cointegrated Systems: Supply Response of the Austrian Breeding Sow Herd, European Review of Agricultural Economics 23:487-507.

13.

Karbuz, S. and Jumah, A. (1995) Cointegration and Commodity Arbitrage, Agribusiness 11:235-243.

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15.

Jumah, A. (1986) The Demand for Cocoa in the EC–Countries – Forecasts and Policy Implications, Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture 25:360-373.

Book Chapters 1.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (2006) Exchange Rate Volatility Spillovers in International Equity Markets, In: Lee, C.-F., ed., Advances in Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management Vol. 2, 173-198.

2.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (2005) Modeling Fixed Investment and Its Components: An Application of Non-Linear Error Correction, In: Dreger, C. and Galler, H.P, Advances in Macroeconometric Modeling, Papers and Proceedings of the 4th IWH Workshop in Macroeconometrics.

3.

Austrian Trade Yearbook 2000/2001, Federal Ministry of Economics and Labour, Vienna, (2001), with Felderer, B., Grozea-Helmenstein, D., Hauser-Rethaller, U. and Skriner, E.

Working Papers and Others 1.

Sattar, S. and Jumah, A. (2007) Opportunities and Challenges of the Chinese Supply Chain and Outsourcing Market, Technical Paper, UNIDO, Vienna (forthcoming).

2.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (2008) Optimizing Time-series Forecasts for Inflation and Interest Rates using Simulation and Model Averaging, Economics Series No. 230, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna.

3.

Mishra, T, Jumah, A. and Parhi, M. (2008) Age-structured Human Capital and Spatial Total Factor Productivity Dynamics, Economics Series No. 226, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna.

4.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (2007) Inflation in the West African Countries: The Impact of Cocoa Prices, Budget Deficits and Migrant Remittances, Economic Series No. 219, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna.

5.

Crespo-Cuaresma, J., Jumah, A. and Karbuz, S. (2007) Modelling and Forecasting Oil Prices: The Role of Asymmetric Cycles, Working Paper 2007-22, Working Paper Series, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.

6.

Jumah, A. and Pastuszyn, G. (2007) Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Aggregate Demand in Ghana, Economic Series No. 212, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna.

7.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (2006) Seasonal Cycles in European Agricultural Commodity Prices, Economic Series No. 192, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna.

8.

Jedlicka, L. and Jumah, A. (2006) The Austrian Insurance Industry: A Structure, Conduct and Performance Analysis, Economic Series No. 189, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna.

9.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (2005) Forecasting Aggregate Demand in West African Economies: The Influence of Immigrant Remittance Flows and of Asymmetric Error Correction, Economic Series No. 168, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna.

10.

Kunst, R.M. and Jumah, A. (2005) Toward a Theory of Evaluating Predictive Accuracy,

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Economic Series No. 162, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna. 11.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (2004) Modelling National Accounts Sub-Aggregates: An Application of Non-Linear Error Correction, Economic Series No. 149, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna.

12.

Jumah, A. (2003) Seasonal Patterns in Retail Interest Rates in the Euro Area, Draft, Money and Banking Statistics Division, European Central Bank.

13.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (2002) On Mean Reversion in Real Interest Rates: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Economic Series No. 109, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna.

14.

Jumah, A. (2001) Useful Indicator Properties for Monetary Policy in Austria, Draft, Austrian National Bank, Economic Analysis Division, Vienna, Austria.

15.

Jumah, A. (2001) Extracting the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate, Draft, Austrian National Bank, Economic Analysis Division, Vienna, Austria.

16.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (2001) The Effects of Exchange Rate Exposures on Equity Asset Markets, Economic Series No. 94, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna.

17.

Jumah, A. (2001) On Volatility in Commodity Markets, IHS Newsletter Vol. 8, No. 2, p.5.

18.

Jumah, A. (2001) The Long Run, Market Power and Retail Pricing, Economics Series No. 78, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna.

19.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (1999) The Effects of Dollar/Sterling Exchange Rate Volatility on Futures Markets for Coffee and Cocoa, Economics Series No. 73, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna.

20.

Ortner, Karl M., Neunteufel, Marta G., Jumah, A., Hofreither, Markus F., (1996) Agriculture After Joining the EU: Sectoral Analysis for Austria, Schriftenreihe Nr. 78, Bundesanstalt für Agrarwirtschaft, Wien.

21.

Jumah, A. and Kunst, R.M. (1995) Forecasting Seasonally Cointegrated Systems: Supply Response in Austrian Agriculture, Economics Series No. 11, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna.

22.

Jumah, A., Karbuz, S. and Rünstler G. (1995) Arbitrage in Commodity Markets: A Full Systems Cointegration Analysis, Economics Series No. 5, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna.

23.

Jumah, A. and Stehlik, K. (1994) Entwicklung der Preise bei tierischen Produkten und mögliche langfristige Zusammenhänge, Förderungsdienst 42:183-184, (Developments in Meat Product Prices and Possible Long–Term Linkages).

24.

Jumah, A. and Wohlmeyer, H. (1991) Interlinkages between Trade and Environment – Implications for Agriculture, Environment and Development, ÖGUT-Info 14/91.

25.

Jumah, A. (1988) Prospects for Cassava in Domestic and International Markets, Working Paper WP-88-027, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

26.

Jumah, A. (1986) The International Cocoa Market and Forecaststs of the Demand for ECCountries, Schriftenreihe Nr. 44, Bundesanstalt für Agrarwirtschaft, Wien.

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Presentations:

1.

Agriculture and Economic Growth in Africa Revisited: A Modified Okun's Law, Paper Presented at the Twelfth Annual Conference on Econometric Modelling for Africa, Cape Town, South Africa, July 4-6. 2007, with Kunst, R. M.

2.

Agriculture and Economic Growth in Africa Revisited: A modified Okun's Law, Paper Presented at the 27th International Symposium on Forecasting, New York, USA, June 12-15. 2005, with Kunst, R. M.

3.

Cocoa Prices, Immigrant Remittance Flows and Inflation in West African Countries, Paper Presented at the Tenth Annual Conference on Econometric Modelling for Africa, Nairobi, July 6-8, 2005, with Kunst, R. M.

4.

Predicting Inflation in West African countries: Cocoa Prices and Immigrant Remittance Flows, Paper Presented at the 25th International Symposium on Forecasting, San Antonio, Texas, USA, June 12-15. 2005, with Kunst, R. M.

5.

The Long Run, Market Power and Retail Pricing, Paper presented at the Agrar- und Ernährungsökonomisches Kolloquium, Institut für Ernährungswirtschaft und Verbrauchslehre, Institut für Agrarökonomie der Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Germany, May 31, 2005.

6.

The Demand for Processed Cassava Food Products in Lagos, 9th Triennial Symposium of the International Society for Tropical Root Crops – Africa Branch, Mombasa, Kenya, October 31November 5, 2004, with Kunst, R. M.

7.

Immigrant Remittance Flows and the Economy of Ghana: A Non-Linear Analysis, Paper Presented at the 24th International Symposium on Forecasting, Sydney, Australia, July 4-7, (2004), with Kunst, R. M.

8.

Immigrant Remittance Flows and the Economy of West Africa: A Non-Linear Analysis, Paper Presented at the Ninth Annual Conference on Econometric Modelling for Africa, Cape Town, South Africa, June 30-July 2, (2004), with Kunst, R.M.

9.

Trivariate ARCH Estimation of Exchange Rate Volatility Spillovers in Commodity Markets, Paper Presented at the Eighth Annual Conference on Econometric Modelling for Africa, Stellenbosch, South Africa, July 1-4, (2003), with Kunst, R.M.

10.

Modelling National Accounts Sub-Aggregates: An Application of Non-Linear Error Correction, Paper Presented at the 23rd International Symposium on Forecasting, MeridaYucatan, Mexico, June 15-18, (2003), with Kunst, R. M.

11.

Agricultural Export Production and Malnutrition Revisited, Paper Presented at (FoodAfrica) International Working Meeting in Cameroon, Yaounde, Cameroon, May 5-11 (2003).

12.

World Cassava Business: Prospects for West Africa, Paper Presented at the Cassava SME Workshop, Abeokuta, Nigeria, March 24-28 (2003).

13.

Exchange Rate Volatility-Spillovers in International Coffee and Cocoa Markets, Paper Presented at the WIIW Seminar in International Economics, Vienna, 19 December (2002), with Kunst, R. M.

14.

Seasonal Cycles in Retail Interest Rates, Paper Presented at the 22nd International Symposium on Forecasting, Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland, June 23-26, (2002), with Kunst, R. M.

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15.

Mean Reversion in Real Interest Rates: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Paper Presented at the 21st International Symposium on Forecasting, Callaway Gardens, USA, June 17-20, (2001), with Kunst, R. M.

16.

The Effects of Exchange Rate Exposures on Equity Assets, Paper Presented at the 20th International Symposium on Forecasting, Lisbon, June 21-24, (2000), with Kunst, R. M.

17.

The Effects of Dollar/Sterling Exchange Rate Volatility on Coffee and Cocoa Spreads, Paper Presented at the 19th International Symposium on Forecasting, Washington, DC., June 27-30, (1999), with Kunst, R. M.

18.

Interest Rates and Integration in Commodity Futures, Paper Presented at the Finance Workshop, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Nov. 9th (1998).

19.

Agriculture in the CEECs – Present Situation and Future Development, Paper presented at the 50th European Seminar of the EAAE, Schloß Rauischholzhausen, Gießen, Germany, October 15 - 17, (1996), with Fock A., Frohberg, K. and Hartmann, M.

20.

Market Structure, Marketing Margins and EU Membership: Evidence from the Austrian Meat Sector, Proceedings of the NFJ Seminar No. 264, Alnarp, Sweden, June 6–8, (1996).

21.

Arbitrage in Commodity Markets: A Full Systems Cointegration Analysis, Paper Presented at the Tenth Annual Congress of the European Economics Association, Prague, September 3-5, (1995), with Karbuz, S.and Rünstler, G.

22.

Forecasting Seasonally Cointegrated Systems: Supply Response in Austrian Agriculture, Paper Presented at the Tenth Annual Congress of the European Economics Association, Prague, September 3-5, (1995), with Kunst, R.M.

23.

Agrarhandelspolitik und Umweltverträglichkeit am Beispiel des Weltzuckermarktes, Paper Presented at the Second Annual Congress of the Austrian Society for Agricultural Economics, Linz, September, (1992).

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