: ,2) OSCILLATIONS OF PRESENT-DAY CLIMATE ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDBACKS IN ATMOSPHERE ARCTIC ICE OCEAN SYSTEM

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Author: Jocelyn Dean
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$& !   %  $(      # $ $ !%   #   $& . # ! ' $  # ,        $   #$         $     $  # !  (  !)  !( $  !    (   1980. *     '$   $ !    ,  ! $ ! !     # $   $     *  $    " $ $ . C! ,   $! $  $  ( "$  $-$   $)       #     $! #$    #$ $  !   30  XX       (,  $*   , #    $ , ! # !  #!   #$ *   "    $ % $     " "   !%  # $& .  .       ,  ! $  $  ,    #$ . OSCILLATIONS OF PRESENT-DAY CLIMATE ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDBACKS IN ATMOSPHERE – ARCTIC ICE –OCEAN SYSTEM V.A. Semenov 1,2) 1)

A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmopsheric Physics, RAS, 3 Pyzhevsky, 119017, Moscow, Russia, 2) Institute

of Geography, RAS, 29 Staromonetny, 119017, Moscow, Russia, [email protected] Summary. The impact of internal climate variability in the North Atlantic 232

      

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and the Arctic on global climate is studied using simulations with atmospheric general circulation model coupled with mixed layer ocean model forced by anomalous heat fluxes on the ocean-atmosphere interface. The results show that internal long-term climate variability in the North Atlantic and Atlantic Sector of the Arctic may have contributed a substantial part (about a half) to the observed surface air temperature warming in the Northern Hemisphere since 1980s. An important role in this is played by the anomalous heat fluxes in the Arctic that may be enhanced by positive feedback between oceanic heat inflow and sea ice area in the Barents Sea. Taking into account the fact that modern climate models (in ensemble average) almost perfectly reproduce the observed global temperature changes during the last 30 years of the 20th century as a response to the anthropogenic forcing, the results imply a possibility of substantial overestimation of the models’ sensitivity to the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. Keywords. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, global climate models, natural variability. !       #$  $     (  () !   $   1°     XX  ( . 1).  !  $ !$  #      : #   40 ,  $   $$$ 1970.   * $,  #(   0,7°. $$  $ , # !  $  !  %       XX  ,       % . F$!  $  ! '   !  $!   $!$ #$$   !   #    %   !!.     ,  '  $ ! !#       #$  $  ,  #    $     " " ( $ (  $         !)      (  ., Dellworth et al., 2000; Semenov et al., 2010). F  #   *   ( #    $ , $      ' #,    %,     !%, %  $ $  $    #   (  !%   %) (  ! $  (Ottera et al., 2010; Booth et al., 2012) ' $ %,     !%,    # !     !  $      .  "$    $ $ ,    (%   $$     !% $ % $  CMIP3 (Meehl et al., 2007), ( #    $ ,  *    !,     ! &  !,   j    ! XX  ( . 2 ).   '$    %  $  #  $ $   !$    $  !% (  %  ( . 2).

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